Mighty North Atlantic low bombs to 930 mb

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:04 PM GMT on January 26, 2013

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In the Northern Atlantic south of Iceland, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday has put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with the center pressure dropping 58 mb in 24 hours. The Free University of Berlin, which names all major high and low pressure systems that affect Europe, has named the storm "Jolle." This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 988 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center, and hit 930 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. The storm may deepen a few more millibars today, but it is close to maximum intensity. A 930 mb central pressure is what one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is one of the lowest pressures attained by an Atlantic extratropical storm in recent decades. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) The powerful storm brought sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 72 mph, to Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland at 6 pm local time Saturday. Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before Jolle's core hurricane-force winds affect any land areas.


Figure 1. Winter Storm Jolle, as seen at 10 am EST January 26, 2013. Three hours prior to this image, Jolle was analyzed with a central pressure of 930 mb--one of the lowest pressures in recent decades for an Atlantic extratropical storm. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on
Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:

920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).

921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)

924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)

925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)

925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)

For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.

Links
You can see a nice AVHRR image of the east side of the storm at the University of Bern. The raw MODIS pass is here.

The Meteorological Institute of Norway has a nice satellite animation of Jolle.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records

Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post,
Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic

Read my story of what it was like to fly though a 936 mb Atlantic low pressure system on January 4, 1989.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease of intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Jeff Masters

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The Rain Song
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5623
Quoting Civicane49:
A cold front has reached the island of Kauai. It should reach Oahu around midnight.



Didn't see any rain during the Pro Bowl. They got that in just in time.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5623
More heavy rain is on the way for my area. A band of heavy showers is approaching to Oahu.



Loop
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Slow night...Hope you enjoy...

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A cold front has reached the island of Kauai. It should reach Oahu around midnight.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Very educational video from The Weather Channel.

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All that talk and those pictures are making me cold. Almost made it to 65 here today. Forecast was 61 and 60% chance of rain. Didn't see any here. Los Angeles got some light rain. It's all good...
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5623
This is how it looks like outside just a few minutes ago. 2.5" of snow has already fell, but it should be wrapping up with the accumulating snow soon. Snow fall rates were 1-3" per hour at times. Sleet is mixing in now.

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Quoting Bielle:


Snow, ice pellets and then rain. What a lovely Monday Keeper and I have coming.
yep a find mess that will all be gone by tuseday noon with warm heavy rain maybe some thunder
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all around but not for me...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Quoting FLWaterFront:


The best way to adjust to living in such extreme conditions is to avoid living in a place where the temperature is likely to drop to -45F.

Even though there are plenty of winter weather worshipers on this blog these days, you won't find many who crave temperatures that are tens of degrees below zero. I have personally felt temps as cold as -20F and that was more than I could handle, even though at the time I had lived in a cold climate all my life prior to that experience.

I have a close friend who lived for many years here in Central Florida and moved away to an isolated ranch in Central Montana about a decade ago, in part because he wanted to experience extreme cold and snow again. He got his wish and now he tells me that the cold makes his bones ache. That is what tends to happen when it is all but relentless for months on end.



The coldest weather I have been in was 14 with a high of 33 in the NC Appellations in January several years back. There was some light snow around, and a recent snow/sleet/freezing rain mix so everything was icy a slippery.

That to me was REALLY cold, I can't imagine living in well below zero temps!

I don't know why anyone would move from Florida to Montana, that I find downright crazy. I could understand moving to say NC or Tennessee if you want a bit more cold action, but Montana. Yeah, you live in Montana if you grew up there, not move there, lol.

We had some neighbors that moved to Iowa because they "got tired of the city". You know, I got tired of it too sometimes, I prefer more land, more rural living, but they only had to drive 30 minutes up I-75 to find that, not Iowa. Last I heard they were miserable there and struggling to find work...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Mixed precipitation tonight and Monday.


END/KUHN/OSPC



Snow, ice pellets and then rain. What a lovely Monday Keeper and I have coming.
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A surface low could help this become a more significant tornado threat, but it appears that probably won't happen:

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THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL
HINDER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...BUT ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO QUICKLY SPIN-UP AND PRODUCE A TORNADO. ANY LEWPS WILL ALSO HAVE
A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH THE SQUALL LINE.



I still don't think we'll see any prefrontal storms
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


At least that rain will aliviate somewhat the drought conditions in the islands.


It should. Wet season was overdue for Hawaii. The drought conditions should lessen by the next few months, if Hawaii gets more rain.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Civicane49:
Cold front is bringing heavy rain to Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu. The Maui County should receive some heavy rain by late tonight or early tomorrow.



At least that rain will aliviate somewhat the drought conditions in the islands.
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NAM seems to support the surface low the most of all the models.

3 days and lots of model runs to go.
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Cold front is bringing heavy rain to Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu. The Maui County should receive some heavy rain by late tonight or early tomorrow.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
It's now raining in my area on the island of Oahu:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
HIC003-280415-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FF.W.0025.130128T0123Z-130128T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
323 PM HST SUN JAN 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 615 PM HST

* AT 311 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN NEAR NANAKULI...OR ABOUT 19
MILES NORTHWEST OF HONOLULU. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH MORE ON THE WAY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WAIANAE AND MAILI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 615 PM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2150 15827 2156 15807 2130 15796 2124 15815

$$
POWELL
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
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For West Palm Beach...I'll take it...

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Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Wide variety of weather approaching Southern Ontario.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system from Colorado will bring a wide variety of
inclement weather to Southern Ontario over the next few days.

1. Over Southwestern Ontario snow and freezing rain tonight will be
followed by periods of rain Monday and Tuesday. Record to near
record warm temperatures are forecast for Monday and Tuesday.
A freezing rain warning is currently in effect.

2. Over South Central Ontario, snow will develop tonight then change
to freezing rain Monday morning. The freezing rain will change to
rain by Monday afternoon over southern sections, including Toronto,
but the freezing rain will persist into the evening north and east of
Toronto. On Tuesday, rain and record to near record warm
temperatures are forecast. A freezing rain warning is currently in
effect.

3. From Georgian Bay to Eastern Ontario snow will develop early
Monday then change to freezing rain Monday afternoon. Freezing rain
will end Monday evening, then rain will develop Tuesday.

4. In the Ottawa Valley, snow is expected Monday followed by dry
conditions Monday night and Tuesday then freezing rain late Tuesday.

Please check the latest public forecasts and current warnings for
expected snowfall and freezing rain amounts.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End


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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EST Sunday 27 January 2013
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.4 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 27.5°F
Dewpoint: 19.2°F
Humidity: 71 %
Wind: S 6 mph
Wind Chill: 21
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2 to 3 inch per hr snowfall rates entering sw ontario
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Nice Day Keeper

Weather Station
Toronto Pearson (CYYZ)
Elevation
568 ft
Now
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Temperature
28 °F
Feels Like 22 °F
Wind(mph)
6
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5623
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The HPC says I have a moderate chance of getting at least .25" of ice tomorrow. Looking at down stream reports this is pretty possible.

So far, 0.9" of snow has fallen from this system. Given that there are still some heavy areas of snow to come through before the changeover, I should get at least an inch of snow.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We can start a trend here...

"Thunderfreezingrain"

Lol. But seriously, there's reports of thunder and lightning in Chicago right now as light to moderate freezing rain comes down. Reports are that ice has accumulated up to 0.2".
thunder ice
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Quoting misanthrope:

Your sewer line drains directly into a "pristine" crick? Where exactly do you live?

its just a crick now with grey water running in it
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Could you possibly elaborate on how its possible to adjust living in such an extreme place? lol

30's must feel like balmy spring warmth after dealing with that kind of extreme cold.


The best way to adjust to living in such extreme conditions is to avoid living in a place where the temperature is likely to drop to -45F.

Even though there are plenty of winter weather worshipers on this blog these days, you won't find many who crave temperatures that are tens of degrees below zero. I have personally felt temps as cold as -20F and that was more than I could handle, even though at the time I had lived in a cold climate all my life prior to that experience.

I have a close friend who lived for many years here in Central Florida and moved away to an isolated ranch in Central Montana about a decade ago, in part because he wanted to experience extreme cold and snow again. He got his wish and now he tells me that the cold makes his bones ache. That is what tends to happen when it is all but relentless for months on end.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 714
We can start a trend here...

"Thunderfreezingrain"

Lol. But seriously, there's reports of thunder and lightning in Chicago right now as light to moderate freezing rain comes down. Reports are that ice has accumulated up to 0.2".
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Already snowing here with very minor accumulations.

Mesoscale discussion #53
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Quoting LargoFl:
wow your lucky no one crashed into from behind huh..I always drive with the window down so i can hear the warning bells and maybe even the train whistle or horn..crossings are dangerous and the train doesnt slow down at all


yes...i just read ur comment.

i should go to report it to the city dept of transportation
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Ughhhh, spend the last 2 days trying to unthaw a drainpipe in my basement! 200+ old house here that empties into a pristine crick. Not the only one with this nightmare! Boiled lots and lots of water yesterday to put in the basement shower. No avail. Couldn't use salt either.... oh no... Iron pipe. Decided to come from that crick in, sawed off the pvc "L" that we inserted to try and stop hurricane 'Irene' from flooding, thought we could screw on a deterent to flooding. Naaah... didn't work. Irish wits finally about me, I got it done. Long piece of old iron, hammer away at it and about 16" in, I got a handful of the most foul smelling water ever. I loved it!!!!

Your sewer line drains directly into a "pristine" crick? Where exactly do you live?

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Quoting Levi32:


-45F at my dorm right now.


I see that heatwave finally hit.
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ZCZC 788
WTIO30 FMEE 271840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION 2013/01/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 60.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/01/28 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/01/28 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/01/29 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/01/29 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/01/30 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/01/30 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/01/31 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2013/02/01 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+, CI=2.5-
SYSTEM KEEPS ON UNDERGOING A SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SHOWS A
SHEARED PATTERN WITH A CENTRE LOCATED AT ABOUT 0.9 DG SOUTH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (STILL SHOWING A CURVED BAND PATTERN).
SYSTEM SHIFT WESTWARDS ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST
TRACK. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN
THE NEXT 48/60 HOURS (ARPEGE-ALADIN AND UKMO SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK). OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SOUTH-EASTERLY THEN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
PROGRESSIVELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS, AND TO KEEP ON BEING
UNFAVOURABLE UNTIL MONDAY LATE OR TUESDAY EARLY FOR A SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING (INTENSITY SHOULD OSCILLATE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT).
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE ALOFT AS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DECREASES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
REMAINS VERY GOOD WITHIN THE SAME PERIOD, ON THE BOTH SIDES.
THEREFORE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REGULARLY STRENGTHEN AND TO UNDERGO
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS
EAST-NORTHEAST.
THEREFORE FROM WEDNESDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
RE-CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN MALAGASY
COASTLINE UP TO THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING FAVOURABLE.
IT CAN BE NOTED THAT US MODEL GFS IS THE ONLY NWP THAT SUGGESTS THE
SOUTHWARDS RECURVE MORE EASTERN.=
NNNN
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We have another chance of snow come Friday.The details are still sketchy the immediate concern is the ice tomorrow.Thank goodness the warm up will be short and winter will return.
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332. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Disturbance #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
6:00 AM FST January 28 2013
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 22.8S 180.0 has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots. Position fair based on hourly GOES infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has improved past 24 hours. However, deep convection displaced to the far south of fully exposed low level circulation center. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. System lies south of an upper level jet in a high sheared environment. Upper divergence good to the east of the system. Sea surface temperature is around 27C

Global models have picked up the system and move it westwards with deepening.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
Quoting Levi32:


-45F at my dorm right now.



Could you possibly elaborate on how its possible to adjust living in such an extreme place? lol

30's must feel like balmy spring warmth after dealing with that kind of extreme cold.
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The GFS is forecasting the development of a very powerful low southwest of Greenland in five days, though not quite as intense as Jolle.

944 millibars:

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Hi Guys!

I need your help. I am doing my research report on hurricanes, and I am taking a bit of a poll/census to determine what is the first hurricane that pops into your mind. I would really appreciate it if you would take the time and comment on my post, that way I can further my information and better my report. Thanks for your help!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/WunderGirl12/com ment.html?entrynum=3

WunderGirl12

P.S - Please comment on the post itself, not on Dr. Masters Blog. It is much easier for me to keep track of the names. Thanks! :-)
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tomorrow is going to be interesting.... my local NWS office is telling me im going to get 1/2 inch of of snow, some sleet and around 0.1" of ice... and then later in the week PA is included in the severe weather outlook... I think Mother Nature has it out on Pennsylvania :O
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3626
Recent earthquake in Asia at 5.2 that just happened.

USGS
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 94 Comments: 9621
70 Degrees here today, and overcast. :D
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Below is my outlook map for Tuesday's likely severe weather outbreak.

The main threat, by far, should be damaging winds in the form of a squall line or derecho. However, given the strong shear profiles...if enough instability can materialize...isolated tornadoes ahead of the line are possible. These tornadoes, if they develop, will pose the risk of becoming strong. Quick spin-ups are also likely within the line itself.

Marginally severe hail is also possible within the storms that develop, but it'll be the lesser of the three threats.

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Yep, 316 - 1900hurricane - really looking forward to the remnants of this 'fun and interesting storm' on the W coast of Scotland. Have my eye on a few tree branches that really need to come down - just hope the whole tree doesn't come down too.
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Quoting Levi32:


-45F at my dorm right now.
I cannot imagine 45 below, nevermind -56.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20328
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Ughhhh, spend the last 2 days trying to unthaw a drainpipe in my basement! 200+ old house here that empties into a pristine crick. Not the only one with this nightmare! Boiled lots and lots of water yesterday to put in the basement shower. No avail. Couldn't use salt either.... oh no... Iron pipe. Decided to come from that crick in, sawed off the pvc "L" that we inserted to try and stop hurricane 'Irene' from flooding, thought we could screw on a deterent to flooding. Naaah... didn't work. Irish wits finally about me, I got it done. Long piece of old iron, hammer away at it and about 16" in, I got a handful of the most foul smelling water ever. I loved it!!!!
Does this happen often if so I will tell you how to fix it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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