North American cold wave winds down; Atlantic storm stronger than Sandy winding up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:05 PM GMT on January 25, 2013

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The January 2013 North American cold wave is winding down, after bringing five days of bitter cold to Canada and the Midwest and Northeast U.S. In the U.S., below-zero temperatures were recorded Friday morning in just six states east of the Rockies--half as many as on Thursday morning. The coldest spot was Saranac Lake in New York's Adirondack Mountains, which bottomed out at -18°F (-28°). In nearby Malone, NY, flooding is occurring, thanks to an ice jam on the Salmon River caused by this week's cold weather. The weather was a bit warmer on Mt. Washington, New Hampshire today, where the temperature of -17°F (-27°C) combined with a wind of 81 mph to create a wind chill of -61°F (-52°C). The most dangerous winter weather today will be due to the Wrath of Khan--a low pressure system traversing Tennessee and Kentucky has been named Winter Storm Kahn by TWC, and will bring as much as 0.5" of ice accumulation from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky through North Carolina and northern South Carolina, potentially causing major power outages. Snow will impact areas from the Ohio Valley through western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia, with 1" expected in D.C. and 1 - 3" in Baltimore.


Figure 1. A powerful extratropical storm with a central pressure of 984 mb begins to wind up about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, at 10 am EST January 25, 2013.

How low will it go? Massive Atlantic storm winding up
In the Northern Atlantic, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday is rapidly intensifying about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, and figures to become one of the most intense storms ever observed in the North Atlantic. This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 984 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center; the GFS and ECMWF models both predict that the storm will deepen by 60 mb in 24 hours, reaching a central pressure of 924 - 928 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. This is the central pressure one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is a very rare intensity for an extratropical storm to attain. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before reaching any land areas, and will only be a concern to shipping. The intensification process will be aided by the strong contrast between the frigid Arctic air flowing off the coast of Canada from this week's cold blast, and the warm air lying over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current. The ultimate strength of the storm will depend upon where the center tracks in relation to several warm eddies of the Gulf Stream along its path. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:

920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).

921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)

924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)

925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)

925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)

For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease in intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Links
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records

Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post, Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic

Jeff Masters

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Wasn't Jacques Cousteau caught in a fierce Atlantic storm for three days,aboard the Calypso?
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Going to NYC Next Friday-Wednesday and im looking for some snow,temps look good long range,however Im not to good with the winter models for snow,anyone have any insight and/or links to good winter models,I'd love a snowstorm while im there!!,thanks in advance!!
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G'day and thanks Dr Jeff, great post.
The explosive N Atlantic storm will be interesting to watch, big impact expected to Iceland where Icelandic Meteorological Office has issued several warnings... Saw the 0ZS 25th GFS had MSLP peaking near 920 mb, the 12Z run slightly less now indicating sub 935 mb range so might get close to those top 5 intensity values... and still reaching peak sfc winds at 80 kts, with winds at 925 mb heights on up at 100 kts...

Quoting ILwthrfan:


Understandable, I'm not trying to provoke the usual fight, but rather get information on mid latitude extra tropical storms. Looking at the SST anomalies you can see this system is forecast to track right along extreme anomalies both positive and negative, which can only increase the probability of a stronger storm.



Hiya Ilwthrfan,
Well, one way to put that question in perspective is looking at the historical dates of N Atl storms with record low values Dr Jeff provided, with 3 of them going back to 1800's...

Certainly warm SST values continue due to the Gulf Stream / AMOC, which has shown no sign of slowing in it's function of poleward transport of warm water from tropics, nor much appreciable change in those warm SST's flowing into the Norwegian Sea / sub-Arctic region... I'll be curious to see if this storm affects those SST's to any meaningful measure. Seems it would take really extreme, deep upwelling to do that. Sheesh, given this storm's broad, powerful circulation it might enhance the N Atlantic Current's N / northeastward influx of warm water into polar region!

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
The most powerful impacts from this storm will be in the faroe islands.100 mph winfs massive storm surge flooding
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3 Miles NNW Riverside Municipal CA

57°F

14°C

Humidity96%
Wind SpeedNNE 1 G 6 MPH
Barometer30.14 in
Dewpoint56°F (13°C)
VisibilityNA

Last Update on 25 Jan 9:49 am PST

Current conditions at

Jurupa Valley (SDJUR)

Lat: 33.987 Lon: -117.425 Elev: 795ft.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5773
It's almost believable that storms are becoming stronger in the Atlantic. But then there is this history thing! LOL
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Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Recent radar...Hours and hours of snow to come for N Eng especially inland. http://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/2948702449068 97409/photo/1
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Thanks Dr. Masters; If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms

If we assume that the current global warming signals = more intense winter storms (regardless of whether a natural cycle or un-natural one exacerbated by human carbon emissions), then this may have occurred in past eons during past warming events and we will see this same type of frequency-intensity in the coming decades.

At 51, I will be watching the data closely over the next 10-30 years (and witnessing the upcoming events).....God Willing....... :)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Climate change or not, low pressure systems are/have always been a year round event on Earth since the beginning of time whether they be winter storms/sub-extra/tropical, etc in both hemispheres at any given moment.

Ice cores give us a general picture of the time frames for global warming/cooling periods on Earth over the past thousand/millions of year, but we have no idea about the strength or intensity of the lows during these same past time periods (except for documented written records of "storms" in historical documents or accounts for any given date or location; i.e, the "great storm" of fill-in-the __________ ); we will never know what the actual pressures, or frequency of storms, were back in the day and can only speculate.

Modern science can give us all the actual measurements/pressures from this era but no way to know how they compare to past storm systems before the modern age to make any scientific correlations between the two.
You've brought up some very valid points. However, it pays to remember that anthropogenic warming is--to use a phrase increasingly popular among scientists--"loading the dice" for such events to occur with greater frequency and intensity. And there is, of course, solid evidence that that is exactly what is happening. So while even before we humans started drastically changing the climate the weather would have occasionally rolled double sixes, our loading of the dice is why higher numbers have and will continue to come along more frequently.

NOTE: I'm not saying tomorrow's North Atlantic Superstorm will be "caused" by global warming. But I am saying that, in our warming world, every weather event is affected by that warming to a lesser or greater degree, and tomorrow's storm will be no exception.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13510
If I rem, MZ, there was a fairly heavy snow melt from the Rockies that year as well, IA had such spring rains they never got in the fields in many places. As low as rivers are currently, probably could handle that better this year. I was at Riverport for the Flood Relief concert when the Chesterfield Levee gave way and concert had to be cancelled. Had to settle for show at Funny Bone instead. Same morning the old farmhouse in Monroe County IL was washed away. You should see how they filled in Chesterfield Valley after built new levee, some never learn.
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Major icing is expected in Triangle later today.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 251743Z - 252145Z

SUMMARY...A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...COMMENCING BY AROUND 20-21Z...WHICH
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE
CHARLOTTE...WINSTON-SALEM...FAYETTEVILLE AND RALEIGH-DURHAM
METROPOLITAN AREAS.

DISCUSSION...AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRENGTHENING OF WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 FLOW IS NOW UNDERWAY TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THIS LOW-LEVEL JET /TO
55-65 KT/ IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21-22Z...WITH THE JET CORE ELONGATING
EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THIS LIKELY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND
BROAD...STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ABOVE A LINGERING
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS. AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SATURATE...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BUT
WARMING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN. SIZABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS
MAY ALSO HINDER PRECIPITATION RATES INITIALLY...BUT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF PRECIPITATION RATES UP TO AROUND .10
INCH PER HOUR...SIGNIFICANT ICING APPEARS POSSIBLE ON VEGETATION...
POWER LINES AND MOST UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES.

..KERR.. 01/25/2013
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47. JeffMasters (Admin)
Added this to the blog:

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease in intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.

Jeff Masters
Quoting dabirds:
Big Atlantic storm in '93, anyone rem what occurred in the Miss. & MO river valleys that spring/summer? Wouldn't mind about 1/2 to 3/4 of that this year, as long as crops get in first.


Well, if the last decade is any predictor, it seems that we ought to not only expect the unexpected, but to consider it more expectable than usual.

That sounds a little cutesy, so to put it another way, variance in data seems to be on the increase, and the rate of increase might be increasing too.
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Thanks Doctor Masters! :-)

Hope everyone stays safe with this storm coming. A "chilly" 72*F right now. Man I do wish for some cold weather. :-)

WunderGirl12
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Climate change or not, low pressure systems are/have always been a year round event on Earth since the beginning of time whether they be winter storms/sub-extra/tropical, etc in both hemispheres at any given moment.

Ice cores give us a general picture of the time frames for global warming/cooling periods on Earth over the past thousand/millions of year, but we have no idea about the strength or intensity of the lows during these same past time periods (except for documented written records of "storms" in historical documents or accounts for any given date or location; i.e, the "great storm" of fill-in-the __________ ); we will never know what the actual pressures, or frequency of storms, were back in the day and can only speculate.

Modern science can give us all the actual measurements/pressures from this era but no way to know how they compare to past storm systems before the modern age to make any scientific correlations between the two.

Thanks for that one.
I think there comes a point that with weather we have to accept that after more than 100 years of fairly accurate measurements and reports that the records of warmest, coldest, highest wind speeds, lowest storm pressures etc. Have probably been achieved and it will be arbitrary if things vary a little bit outside known records.
This may not be the case with tornadoes, earthquakes ,volcanic eruptions etc, as they may operate over a much longer time scale.
If we are talking about a pressure difference of a few mi bars or a temp difference of a degree or two, to the sufferers its not that significant.
If we were to take the next 50 years and say things were just a bit outside the records, that's life,evolution of records and the world in general.
What is much more significant is the overall trends and these may be changing towards more record tying events so instead of once every 20 years these events tie every 10,5 or even 2 years.
This to me is the significance of record breaking events, their frequency not just their existence!
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Quoting Chucktown:


Tru dat !!


I am still trying to wrap my head around a post from Dr. M last week (with a recent paper cite) that the current kink in the jet stream over the US "might" be related to melting ice in the Artic in recent decades.....Not suggesting that the paper might be wrong but just noting the same issue; no way to know how past Artic melts (before recorded time) exactly influenced the jet stream patterns.....Computer modeling can only go so far.
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Here's the radar image for Raleigh area right now:

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Quoting Chapelhill:
It's been all snow in Chapel Hill, but sleet is now mixing in. Schools let out at 11:00. Untreated roads are white with a coating.
Here in Garner/Clayton area, it's sleeting pretty good. The road is already frozen with a layer of sleet sticking to it. Glad Johnston County school let us out 15 minutes earlier than planned or students would've trouble driving home. I should have pictures soon.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhmggMcJTPo&feature= player_embedded ciclone Gong last saturday in Portugal
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Climate change or not, low pressure systems are/have always been a year round event on Earth since the beginning of time whether they be winter storms/sub-extra/tropical, etc in both hemispheres at any given moment.

Ice cores give us a general picture of the time frames for global warming/cooling periods on Earth over the past thousand/millions of year, but we have no idea about the strength or intensity of the lows during these same past time periods (except for documented written records of "storms" in historical documents or accounts for any given date or location; i.e, the "great storm" of fill-in-the __________ ); we will never know what the actual pressures, or frequency of storms, were back in the day and can only speculate.

Modern science can give us all the actual measurements/pressures from this era but no way to know how they compare to past storm systems before the modern age to make any scientific correlations between the two.


Tru dat !!
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WOW... This storm is going to be really historic...
Thanks for the entry Doc
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

This is usually a good starting point for such questions...
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=ext ratr opical+storms+climate+change&btnG=&as_sdt= 1%2C19

Just a quick glance at some of the results from both the scholar search and regular web search seems to suggest a not-so-clear-cut answer.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/ en/ch3s3-8-4.html
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008J CLI2678.1
http://www.acrim.com/%5C/Reference%20Files/CLIMAT ECHANGE%202001%20-%20The%20Scientific%20Basis.pdf...page 33. Slightly older source.


Much appreciated Scott!
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Riders on the Storm

Here you go Red
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Safecote Limited‏@Safecote

#Blizzard conditions on the #M60 right now in #Manchester - please take care out there #GK5SnowPloughBlades
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Dr. Masters. Thanks for the post!

I was curious to know the relationship of these types of storms versus Climate Change, relating specifically with the frequency and place of occurrence. It's just my opinion, but to me extra tropical cyclones "seem" to be increasing in both frequency and intensity within the mid latitudes regions of the globe.

Have there been any studies or even previous blogs you've done on the topic?

What influence, if any, does the Arctic dipole help to provide a role in increasing these type of events?


This is usually a good starting point for such questions...
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=extratr opical+storms+climate+change&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C19

Just a quick glance at some of the results from both the scholar search and regular web search seems to suggest a not-so-clear-cut answer.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/ en/ch3s3-8-4.html
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008J CLI2678.1
http://www.acrim.com/%5C/Reference%20Files/CLIMAT ECHANGE%202001%20-%20The%20Scientific%20Basis.pdf...page 33. Slightly older source.
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Well Dr Masters thanks for that.
Its so nice to know whats hanging over our heads, even if it wont be the worst north Atlantic storm in recorded history, at least it will give us something to talk about over the weekend other than golden oldies for those who survived long enough to receive a pension.
There's probably going to be some damage out of this one, if for sure not all shipping is out of the area, 52 foot waves are pretty nasty things even in big ships.
Added to the human disturbances in the immediate area, there will also be a lot of warm air carried up north, Iceland area etc with this storm.
Well on the bright side of things, I supose that it will oxygenate the waters a bit!
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Big Atlantic storm in '93, anyone rem what occurred in the Miss. & MO river valleys that spring/summer? Wouldn't mind about 1/2 to 3/4 of that this year, as long as crops get in first.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


well, as Dr. M says, the thing is supposed to wind down quickly.

As well, I wonder: The Brits in general tend to be much more subdued and restrained in their speech, so maybe the mets are as well?


Hmmm The OPC seems to think there are Hurricane Winds involved over Ireland

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6894
Good Morning. Climate change or not, low pressure systems are/have always been a year round event on Earth since the beginning of time whether they be winter storms/sub-extra/tropical, etc in both hemispheres at any given moment.

Ice cores give us a general picture of the time frames for global warming/cooling periods on Earth over the past thousand/millions of year, but we have no idea about the strength or intensity of the lows during these same past time periods (except for documented written records of "storms" in historical documents or accounts for any given date or location; i.e, the "great storm" of fill-in-the __________ ); we will never know what the actual pressures, or frequency of storms, were back in the day and can only speculate.

Modern science can give us all the actual measurements/pressures from this era but no way to know how they compare to past storm systems before the modern age to make any scientific correlations between the two.
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Quoting aquak9:
(runs in to hug VR46L, runs back out)


Thanks Aqua , You take care !!
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(runs in to hug VR46L, runs back out)
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Forgot to thank the Doc. Thanks Doc M.
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Fairly large storm and plenty of it left to pass over here.




Can anyone explain why this image is missing the SE quadrant. Anything that can be done to prevent that. Am I too close to this radar or what. I am NE of it about 18 miles. TIA
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Quoting VR46L:


Like I said Ains on the previous blog the Mets over here are not biting at all . Maybe they want the Snow Drama to finish before hitting folk with news of this bad boy . Thaw is on in earnest now here in Ireland . Flood is a Concern ,not to me live well above sea level, but there is a lot of rain fall predicted over the next week . and hurricane winds are Predicted for us by your Ocean weather service .

And thanks for your concern :)


well, as Dr. M says, the thing is supposed to wind down quickly.

As well, I wonder: The Brits in general tend to be much more subdued and restrained in their speech, so maybe the mets are as well?
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Quoting ncstorm:



well I'm out..good luck on him answering but you should get the usual arguments from the bloggers and I dont want to stick around for that..

I'll be watching the sky for some white stuff! Talk to you guys later


Understandable, I'm not trying to provoke the usual fight, but rather get information on mid latitude extra tropical storms. Looking at the SST anomalies you can see this system is forecast to track right along extreme anomalies both positive and negative, which can only increase the probability of a stronger storm.

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Looks like some thundersnow is possible
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Arid southern California is getting way more rain than redwood groves far north.

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look at that line..come ON old man winter!!
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Surfers will be happy in Iceland!
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's sleeting pretty good here right now. In fact, schools are shutting down earlier than planned here including mine's.
It's been all snow in Chapel Hill, but sleet is now mixing in. Schools let out at 11:00. Untreated roads are white with a coating.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Dr. Masters. Thanks for the post!

I was curious to know relationship of these types of storms versus Climate Change, relating specifically with the frequency and place of occurrence. It's just my opinion, but to me extra tropical cyclones "seem" to be increasing in both frequency and intensity within the mid latitudes regions of the globe.

Have there been any studies or even previous blogs you've done on the topic?

What influence, if any, does the Arctic dipole help to provide a role in increasing these type of events?




well I'm out..good luck on him answering but you should get the usual arguments from the bloggers and I dont want to stick around for that..

I'll be watching the sky for some white stuff! Talk to you guys later
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


You're more than welcome. :) Anytime.

Strange they are underplaying it to that degree. I guess in times like these use common sense and your own knowledge of weather and systems like these and prepare accordingly....




Yeah not gonna stress too much , Usually get one or two, 80-100 miles an hour Gusts ,storms every year . Just try to be sensible . and hope I dont lose my internet for a week like I did last year..
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6894
Dr. Masters. Thanks for the post!

I was curious to know the relationship of these types of storms versus Climate Change, relating specifically with the frequency and place of occurrence. It's just my opinion, but to me extra tropical cyclones "seem" to be increasing in both frequency and intensity within the mid latitudes regions of the globe.

Have there been any studies or even previous blogs you've done on the topic?

What influence, if any, does the Arctic dipole help to provide a role in increasing these type of events?

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's sleeting pretty good here right now. In fact, schools are shutting down earlier than planned here including mine's.


yeah I saw schools are letting out 4 hours earlier than the 2 hours they had originally thought..looks like we may get more than rain here..its sleeting in Cumberland and Bladen County and they were just in the possible of getting winter precip as their forecast..this will catch a lot of people off guard getting off from work this evening if this keeps up..
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Braer Storm of January 1993


The Braer Storm of January 1993 is the most intense extratropical cyclone on record for the northern Atlantic ocean. Developing as a weak frontal wave on January 8, 1993, the system moved rapidly northeast developing at a moderate pace. The combination of the absorption of a second low-pressure area to its southeast, a stronger than normal sea surface temperature differential along its path, and the presence of a strong jet stream aloft led to a rapid strengthening of the storm, with its central pressure falling to an estimated 914.0 mb (26.99 inHg) on January 10. Its strength was well predicted by forecasters in the United Kingdom, and warnings were issued before the low initially developed.
Winds of gale-force covered the far northern Atlantic between western Europe and Atlantic Canada due to this storm, with hurricane-force winds confined near its center of circulation. After reaching its peak intensity, the system weakened as it moved into the far northeast Atlantic, dissipating by January 17. This storm caused blizzards across much of Scotland and led to the final breakup of the oil tanker MV Braer, which had been stranded in rocks off the Shetland Islands by a previous storm nearly a week beforehand.
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Record set

This cyclone was slightly stronger than an intense low pressure area which moved near Greenland on December 14-15, 1986, which was the strongest extratropical cyclone known to occur across the northern Atlantic ocean at that time.

Only three prior extratropical storms across the north Atlantic,[3] and one since,[8] have attained central pressures below 930 millibars (27 inHg).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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