North American cold wave winds down; Atlantic storm stronger than Sandy winding up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:05 PM GMT on January 25, 2013

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The January 2013 North American cold wave is winding down, after bringing five days of bitter cold to Canada and the Midwest and Northeast U.S. In the U.S., below-zero temperatures were recorded Friday morning in just six states east of the Rockies--half as many as on Thursday morning. The coldest spot was Saranac Lake in New York's Adirondack Mountains, which bottomed out at -18°F (-28°). In nearby Malone, NY, flooding is occurring, thanks to an ice jam on the Salmon River caused by this week's cold weather. The weather was a bit warmer on Mt. Washington, New Hampshire today, where the temperature of -17°F (-27°C) combined with a wind of 81 mph to create a wind chill of -61°F (-52°C). The most dangerous winter weather today will be due to the Wrath of Khan--a low pressure system traversing Tennessee and Kentucky has been named Winter Storm Kahn by TWC, and will bring as much as 0.5" of ice accumulation from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky through North Carolina and northern South Carolina, potentially causing major power outages. Snow will impact areas from the Ohio Valley through western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia, with 1" expected in D.C. and 1 - 3" in Baltimore.


Figure 1. A powerful extratropical storm with a central pressure of 984 mb begins to wind up about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, at 10 am EST January 25, 2013.

How low will it go? Massive Atlantic storm winding up
In the Northern Atlantic, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday is rapidly intensifying about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, and figures to become one of the most intense storms ever observed in the North Atlantic. This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 984 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center; the GFS and ECMWF models both predict that the storm will deepen by 60 mb in 24 hours, reaching a central pressure of 924 - 928 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. This is the central pressure one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is a very rare intensity for an extratropical storm to attain. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before reaching any land areas, and will only be a concern to shipping. The intensification process will be aided by the strong contrast between the frigid Arctic air flowing off the coast of Canada from this week's cold blast, and the warm air lying over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current. The ultimate strength of the storm will depend upon where the center tracks in relation to several warm eddies of the Gulf Stream along its path. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:

920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).

921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)

924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)

925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)

925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)

For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease in intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Links
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records

Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post, Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic

Jeff Masters

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211. Civicane49
2:02 AM GMT on January 26, 2013
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
335 PM HST FRI JAN 25 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI...NIIHAU AND OAHU...

.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AND MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A BAND OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE SLOWING
FRONT PROVIDING A FURTHER FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INTENSE RAIN
RATES...THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

HIZ001>011-261445-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FF.A.0001.130127T2200Z-130129T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-
335 PM HST FRI JAN 25 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KAUAI...NIIHAU AND OAHU

* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS VERY DANGEROUS. REMEMBER
THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE RAINING HEAVILY WHERE YOU ARE FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.

MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTION IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BURKE
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
210. Civicane49
2:01 AM GMT on January 26, 2013
Good evening all.

A storm system associated with a cold front is currently hundreds of miles northwest of Hawaii; it is expected to move generally eastward and bring heavy rainfall in my area by next Sunday and Monday. Wet season is overdue for Hawaii but should alleviate some drought areas throughout the islands by the next few months. Calm weather should return by middle of next week.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
209. AztecCe
1:59 AM GMT on January 26, 2013
Quoting txjac:


Where are you located Aztec?

NE North Carolina, by Elizabeth City
Member Since: October 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 268
208. PedleyCA
1:56 AM GMT on January 26, 2013
...
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6723
207. txjac
1:53 AM GMT on January 26, 2013
Quoting allancalderini:
Agree but I really think the aliens exist as the universe is to big for only us to exist.


Any ideas as to where they live now? I'm also convinced we are not alone ...but cant fathom where they are
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 2911
206. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:52 AM GMT on January 26, 2013
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #26
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY TWO (09F)
12:00 PM FST January 26 2013
======================================

Southern Cooks Island Alerts
-----------------------------
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, TAKUTEA AND ATIU.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MAUKE, MITIARO, MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (980 hPa) located near 17.5S 160.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots. Position good based on hourly GOES infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center elsewhere

System has become significantly disorganized past 12 hours. Low level circulation center exposed with deep convection displaced to east. System lies to east of an upper trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good to east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 60 NM sheared distance from deep convection edge, yielding DT=2.0. MET=3.0 and PT=3.0. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it south southeastwards with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.7S 159.2W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 22.0S 158.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 49638
205. allancalderini
1:48 AM GMT on January 26, 2013
Quoting stormchaser19:


I think the same, but this need to be verified..
Agree but I really think the aliens exist as the universe is to big for only us to exist.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4487
204. 1900hurricane
1:47 AM GMT on January 26, 2013
I believe bombgenesis has begun.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11906
203. txjac
1:46 AM GMT on January 26, 2013
Quoting AztecCe:
Guess who got snow?



Where are you located Aztec?
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 2911
202. stormchaser19
1:46 AM GMT on January 26, 2013
Quoting allancalderini:
Finally.I have always believe we are not alone.


I think the same, but this need to be verified..
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2178
201. PedleyCA
1:46 AM GMT on January 26, 2013
Is There Anybody Out There?
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6723
Guess who got snow?

Member Since: October 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 268
Quoting stormchaser19:
?????????????

Russia Orders Obama: Tell World About Aliens, Or We Will

A stunning Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) report on Prime Minister Medvedev%u2019s [photo top right] agenda at the World Economic Forum (WEF) this week states that Russia will warn President Obama that the %u201Ctime has come%u201D for the world to know the truth about aliens, and if the United States won%u2019t participate in the announcement, the Kremlin will do so on its own.

The WEF (The Forum) is a Swiss non-profit foundation, based in Cologny, Geneva and describes itself as an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.
The Forum is best known for its annual meeting in Davos, a mountain resort in Graubnden, in the eastern Alps region of Switzerland. The meeting brings together some 2,500 top business leaders, international political leaders, selected intellectuals and journalists to discuss the most pressing issues facing the world, including health and the environment.
Medvedev is scheduled to open this years Forum where as many as 50 heads of government, including Germany%u2019s Angela Merkel and Britain%u2019s David Cameron, will attend the five-day meeting that begins on 23 January.

Full STORY Link
Finally.I have always believe we are not alone.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4487
I think wxmod subscribes to the use of HARRP, the conspiricy theories that is.
Oh look it's focused over Southern California


Oh lookie here, it's centred over Southern Europe and Northern Eastern Australia.



I hope it doesn't move any further south, I don't want to get my brain fried.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16014
Quoting stormchaser19:
?????????????

Russia Orders Obama: Tell World About Aliens, Or We Will

A stunning Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) report on Prime Minister Medvedev’s [photo top right] agenda at the World Economic Forum (WEF) this week states that Russia will warn President Obama that the “time has come” for the world to know the truth about aliens, and if the United States won’t participate in the announcement, the Kremlin will do so on its own.

The WEF (The Forum) is a Swiss non-profit foundation, based in Cologny, Geneva and describes itself as an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.
The Forum is best known for its annual meeting in Davos, a mountain resort in Graubünden, in the eastern Alps region of Switzerland. The meeting brings together some 2,500 top business leaders, international political leaders, selected intellectuals and journalists to discuss the most pressing issues facing the world, including health and the environment.
Medvedev is scheduled to open this years Forum where as many as 50 heads of government, including Germany’s Angela Merkel and Britain’s David Cameron, will attend the five-day meeting that begins on 23 January.

Full STORY Link


Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2178
?????????????

Russia Orders Obama: Tell World About Aliens, Or We Will

A stunning Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) report on Prime Minister Medvedev’s [photo top right] agenda at the World Economic Forum (WEF) this week states that Russia will warn President Obama that the “time has come” for the world to know the truth about aliens, and if the United States won’t participate in the announcement, the Kremlin will do so on its own.

The WEF (The Forum) is a Swiss non-profit foundation, based in Cologny, Geneva and describes itself as an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.
The Forum is best known for its annual meeting in Davos, a mountain resort in Graubünden, in the eastern Alps region of Switzerland. The meeting brings together some 2,500 top business leaders, international political leaders, selected intellectuals and journalists to discuss the most pressing issues facing the world, including health and the environment.
Medvedev is scheduled to open this years Forum where as many as 50 heads of government, including Germany’s Angela Merkel and Britain’s David Cameron, will attend the five-day meeting that begins on 23 January.

Full STORY Link
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2178
195. etxwx
Brazil to survey Amazon rainforest
BBC 25 January 2013
The Brazilian government has announced that it plans to undertake the huge task of recording an inventory of the trees in the Amazon rainforest. The Forestry Ministry said the census would take four years to complete, and would provide detailed data on tree species, soils and biodiversity in the world's largest rainforest. The last exhaustive survey was carried out more than 30 years ago. In that time the rainforest has become increasingly threatened by logging.

The Brazilian government made a commitment in 2009 to reduce deforestation in the Amazon by 80% by the year 2020. According to the government, in 2012 the destruction of the Amazon rainforest reached its lowest level since monitoring began more than two decades ago. But ministers said they would be able to act more effectively if they had more accurate data.

"We are going to come to know the rainforest from within," Forestry Minister Antonio Carlos Hummel said announcing the inventory.

Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira said it would help the government to formulate environmental policies.

"In international debates about climate change, for example, we will know how much forest we have and what state it is in (...), we'll discover species, and gain knowledge about species becoming extinct, as well as information about the distribution of the forest and its potential economic use", Ms Teixeira said.

Brazil's national development bank said it would contribute $33m to the project.

The last detailed survey of the Brazilian Amazon was carried out in the 1970s, and its results published in 1983. Forestry Minister Hummel said partial results would be published yearly, as it progressed.

Link
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Quoting wxmod:
Rain in the deep, deep desert.


Ok, it is raining in the desert. I guess it is time to go hit the panic button.
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193. wxmod
Quoting plutorising:

wxmod,the world will go on, even better when you aren't quite so excitable about it.


Why would you say that?
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting KoritheMan:
The United States government thought that they could manipulate the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes back in the 1970s. Project Stormfury. But it was later found out that the observed weakening in the seeded hurricanes was due to natural causes, namely eye wall replacement cycles. Oh dear.

Anyway, that's just one of the many holes in any weather modification theory. I can name more.

wxmod, as someone who sounded a lot like you back in the 70s, when THEY were messing with the weather AND mind control, i feel your anxiety. but you are doing your part, and the world will go on, even better when you aren't quite so excitable about it.
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191. wxmod
Rain in the deep, deep desert.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
The United States government thought that they could manipulate the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes back in the 1970s. Project Stormfury. But it was later found out that the observed weakening in the seeded hurricanes was due to natural causes, namely eye wall replacement cycles. Oh dear.

Anyway, that's just one of the many holes in any weather modification theory. I can name more.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 603 Comments: 21818
189. etxwx
No injuries but some minor damage reported.
Small earthquake shakes East Texas

SHELBY COUNTY, TX (KTRE) -
Updated: Jan 25, 2013 5:09 PM CST
An earthquake of moderate magnitude was detected in Shelby County early Friday morning, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Seismometers detected a 4.1 magnitude temblor around 1:01 a.m., about 2 miles west of Timpson.

Larry Burnes, Timpson's emergency management coordinator, said even though last night's quake wasn't the strongest in the last year in the last year and a half, it lasted the longest.

"Probably 30 to 40 seconds maybe a minute, one of the charts that I pulled the information off of showed it about a minute long," Burnes said.

The USGS reported the tremor's depth was measured about 4 kilometers below the surface of the Earth.

The Shelby County and Rusk County Sheriff's offices confirm no injuries have been reported. Homeowners reported minor cracks in drywall and a dollar store in Timpson was cleaning a mess after merchandise fell from shelves, according to Sheriff's officials.

Friday's tremor follows a weaker 2.8 magnitude earthquake reported in the same area in December. Seven quakes have been detected in the region since May 2012.

RECENT EAST TEXAS EARTHQUAKE TIMELINE
•May 10, 2012 - (3.9) NW of Timpson.
•May 17, 2012 - (4.8) ENE of Timpson.
•May 20, 2012 - (2.7) SSW of Timpson.
•May 26, 2012 - (2.5) SE of Timpson.
•June 16, 2012 - (2.1) SSW of Timpson.
•December 7, 2012 - (2.8) SW of Timpson.
•January 25, 2013 - (4.1) W of Timpson.

The Texas State Historical Association cites a 80-kilometer segment of the Mount Enterprise fault system which caused earthquakes in 1891 and 1981, in Rusk and Center and Jacksonville, respectively.
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Quoting wxmod:


LA had a reputation for being nothing but sunglasses and Disneyland. Now I understand the chamber of commerce is trying to sell it as a tree city.
Meanwhile, Redwoods a thousand years old are struggling for survival.
If you spend all your time on a computer making models, how would you see this?
Wtf are you talking about?

Redwoods do not live in Los Angeles. I know this, not because of computer models but because I have actually been to Los Angeles. I have also been to the areas in central and northern California where they do naturally exist -- they seemed pretty healthy to me.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
HHHHHHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLLLLLPPPPPPPPP PPPPPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!!
Somebody get us out of this scenario!!!
Can we please get back to the Atlantic storm and other things pertinent?
This pseudo psychological tampering is just so boring!
I'm out of here until tomorrow about 10 hours from now.
Happy vapor trails!
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Ramble On
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6723
Quoting wxmod:


Boy, I'll tell ya! You guys are hard. I wonder how many of you see the writing on the ground. The plants that grow are the written language of the weather. Especially the forest tells what the average weather for an area is over recent history. Bigger trees need lots of water and nutrients. Thick debris and soil indicate that a forest hasn't burned in a long time. These tell way more about climate than text books.
No, it's you that is being difficult. You are not staying on topic and backing up your answers or facts.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8119
184. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:
Redwoods haven't grown in southern California for thousands of years. Climate is too warm and dry here, and it's been that way since long before man started making contrails.


LA had a reputation for being nothing but sunglasses and Disneyland. Now I understand the chamber of commerce is trying to sell it as a tree city.
Meanwhile, Redwoods a thousand years old are struggling for survival.
If you spend all your time on a computer making models, how would you see this?
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting wxmod:


In no way shape or form would I suggest that the Atlantic storm that is brewing is caused by jet trails. People are capable of nudging storm tracks and influencing their intensity by whitening clouds, darkening clouds or seeding clouds. I've showed you plenty of examples. As far as I can tell, people have had no success in creating storms or causing them to spin. I could be wrong though.
As Jeff Masters always suggests, mega storms may be becoming more frequent because of climatic changes caused by people. There's no telling how serious these storms could get, because climate change is an open ended process.
You say I should compare the size of a human with the size of a storm. Here's the problem with that: a freighter that you can't even see in a MODIS satellite photo, even though it's a half mile long, can produce a cloud 50 miles wide and a thousand miles long. That's just one ship hauling ipods, tires, steel and applejuice from China. If one of those items is headed for your house, you are having an influence on the weather. What are we at now? 7 billion people? That's a lot of 6 foot humans changing the weather.

now calm down aq bit!!!
These humans may think they are in control of the planet but they are only for the time being in control of the flow of information over it.
I basically dont really give a damn what the cause might be for things! Its the outcome of things that matters?
In order to keep the peace I suggest that we keep our eyes on what is visual in the real world! This is limited to everyday events and weather is one of them.
If the forces that be are having a go at messing with the global weather systems, then let them consider this!
What was there yesterday is gone, what is here now is observable and what will be here tomorrow is anybody's guess!

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182. wxmod
Quoting Bluestorm5:
What does the redwoods have to do with the subject Tom is trying to explain to you?


Boy, I'll tell ya! You guys are hard. I wonder how many of you see the writing on the ground. The plants that grow are the written language of the weather. Especially the forest tells what the average weather for an area is over recent history. Bigger trees need lots of water and nutrients. Thick debris and soil indicate that a forest hasn't burned in a long time. These tell way more about climate than text books.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
181. txjac
I am so jealous of you with snow ...got up to over 80F here in Houston today. Maybe I should plan a trip to see my brother in Ohio?
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 2911
Quoting wxmod:


Tom, Why aren't there redwoods growing in southern California. The forests of northern CA are taking an unprecedented beating by year after year of drought. The forces that allowed those trees to grow to record size have been seriously interfered with in the last thirty years. Something is very clearly changed. It is not a text book.
Redwoods haven't grown in southern California for thousands of years. Climate is too warm and dry here, and it's been that way since long before man started making contrails.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting wxmod:


Tom, Why aren't there redwoods growing in southern California. The forests of northern CA are taking an unprecedented beating by year after year of drought. The forces that allowed those trees to grow to record size have been seriously interfered with in the last thirty years. Something is very clearly changed. It is not a text book.
What does the redwoods have to do with the subject Tom is trying to explain to you?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8119
178. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:
No, just no.

If you pay attention to the California coast enough, you'd know the real reason we see so many cut-off lows is because of the semi-permanent ridging which exists along and just off the west coast of North America. This semi-permanent ridging along the sub-tropical waters of the east side of the Ocean is inherent to all Ocean basins. Partially because of the natural ridging that develops in the sub-tropics from the Coriolis effect, and additionally from the cold boundary currents which form along the Eastern side of the World's oceans (also a result of the Coriolis effect). The semi-permanent ridging along and off the west coast of California means that trough have a harder time digging into this region, and when they do they often get "cut-off" by ridging filling in behind the trough.




The semi-permanent ridging also explains why the ship contrails which you are fixated on are so common off the west Coast. The semi-permanent ridging provides a a stable, shallow layer of moisture. Ship exhaust (which includes water vapor, since water is a byproduct of combustion) then forms contrails if the air is humid enough. The stable air mass allows these contrails to persist, without little interference from variable winds.


Tom, Why aren't there redwoods growing in southern California. The forests of northern CA are taking an unprecedented beating by year after year of drought. The forces that allowed those trees to grow to record size have been seriously interfered with in the last thirty years. Something is very clearly changed. It is not a text book.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting wxmod:


Tom, you are looking for a text book explanation of a man made trough that models can't possibly predict. If you pay attention to the California coast over a long period of time, you will see a ton of inexplicable troughs straight up and down just off shore in the Pacific. Could be ship pollution that causes this. I used to think it was an underwater volcano, but satellite photos show plenty of ship particulates to do the job.
No, just no.

If you pay attention to the California coast enough, you'd know the real reason we see so many cut-off lows is because of the semi-permanent ridging which exists along and just off the west coast of North America. This semi-permanent ridging along the sub-tropical waters of the east side of the Ocean is inherent to all Ocean basins. This is true because of the natural ridging that develops in the sub-tropics from the Coriolis effect, and additionally from the cold boundary currents which form along the Eastern side of the World's oceans (also a result of the Coriolis effect). The semi-permanent ridging along and off the west coast of California means that troughs have a harder time digging into this region, and when they do they often get "cut-off" by ridging filling in behind the trough.

500mb Ridge Axis visible off and along the West Coast




The semi-permanent ridging also explains why the ship contrails which you are fixated on are so common off the west Coast. The semi-permanent ridging provides a a stable, shallow layer of moisture. Ship exhaust (which includes water vapor, since water is a byproduct of combustion) then forms contrails if the air is humid enough -- which it often is in the low levels of the atmosphere. The semi-permanent ridging then allows these contrails to persist because of the stabler atmosphere associated with ridging.


Mean Sea Level Pressure

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
I think I found Jose, lol:



The sad thing is that JTWC currently has this listed as a 65kt typhoon as of just a couple hours ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
175. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GFS is predicting temperatures over 15 degrees above average next week for Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.



Our local forecast has backed off those 15 degree above average temps .. only calling for highs Tuesday of 40 .. 7 degrees above normal ..
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Quoting dabirds:
Just saw yours Pedley, didn't have the hurling guy, not sure when they put that in. Rem they'd always show a match around St. Pat's, it being an Irish sport.


That version was labeled as 1978....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6723
173. wxmod
Quoting PedleyCA:


could ya make it smaller????

sarcasm flag on


Sorry. Need magnifier.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
172. wxmod
Quoting PlazaRed:

Now then WXMOD, with no disrespect and asking you as a person who "we dont know who you are and we don't know what you do!" ( your words,) can you honestly tell us that any power that you know of, or have an inkling exists could possibly have influenced or caused the occurrence of this North Atlantic storm of about one million square miles in area?
Bearing in mind that the average human is no more than 6 foot tall and can at best make its presence known over a very small area globally.
I ask you from the standpoint of an impartial observer, when you look at this type of natural phenomenon, how on earth could a few few vapor trails create this?
Then again I could be wrong, deluded, and under the influence of consciousness modifying substances, which are clouding my ability to comprehend the powers of humanity in the face of natural forces!


In no way shape or form would I suggest that the Atlantic storm that is brewing is caused by jet trails. People are capable of nudging storm tracks and influencing their intensity by whitening clouds, darkening clouds or seeding clouds. I've showed you plenty of examples. As far as I can tell, people have had no success in creating storms or causing them to spin. I could be wrong though.
As Jeff Masters always suggests, mega storms may be becoming more frequent because of climatic changes caused by people. There's no telling how serious these storms could get, because climate change is an open ended process.
You say I should compare the size of a human with the size of a storm. Here's the problem with that: a freighter that you can't even see in a MODIS satellite photo, even though it's a half mile long, can produce a cloud 50 miles wide and a thousand miles long. That's just one ship hauling ipods, tires, steel and applejuice from China. If one of those items is headed for your house, you are having an influence on the weather. What are we at now? 7 billion people? That's a lot of 6 foot humans changing the weather.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
GFS is predicting temperatures over 15 degrees above average next week for Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34079
the 12z and 18z GFS have come farther south in its run as it previously thought early this week..the NAM is what it is..a "NAM" and failed with the southern forecast..every dang gone county in NC except my county, Brunswick and Columbus county is either under a winter weather advisory or warning..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
169. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:
For those interested, I have written a blog on the latest happenings in Southern California

Link


Tom, you are looking for a text book explanation of a man made trough that models can't possibly predict. If you pay attention to the California coast over a long period of time, you will see a ton of inexplicable troughs straight up and down just off shore in the Pacific. Could be ship pollution that causes this. I used to think it was an underwater volcano, but satellite photos show plenty of ship particulates to do the job.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Perfect Mountain biking weather here today:

High 70's and dew points in the 40's to 50's

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:
Rainforest coast of CA and desert coast of CA:


Now then WXMOD, with no disrespect and asking you as a person who "we dont know who you are and we don't know what you do!" ( your words,) can you honestly tell us that any power that you know of, or have an inkling exists could possibly have influenced or caused the occurrence of this North Atlantic storm of about one million square miles in area?
Bearing in mind that the average human is no more than 6 foot tall and can at best make its presence known over a very small area globally.
I ask you from the standpoint of an impartial observer, when you look at this type of natural phenomenon, how on earth could a few few vapor trails create this?
Then again I could be wrong, deluded, and under the influence of consciousness modifying substances, which are clouding my ability to comprehend the powers of humanity in the face of natural forces!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Radar says it's icing here. Outside weather disagrees.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34079
Quoting FLWaterFront:


It works now.. thanks.

And, I wouldn't want to be that skier.


Watch This One - Here he is today
skier today
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6723
In southern Ontario, about 25 klics north of the north shore of Lake Ontario, we have snow and cold and an 80-car pile-up on HWY 401 at Newcastle.

Hwy 401 closed for 80-car pile-up

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Quoting wxmod:
Rainforest coast of CA and desert coast of CA:



could ya make it smaller????

sarcasm flag on
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6723
162. wxmod
Rainforest coast of CA and desert coast of CA:

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Just saw yours Pedley, didn't have the hurling guy, not sure when they put that in. Rem they'd always show a match around St. Pat's, it being an Irish sport.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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