North American cold wave winds down; Atlantic storm stronger than Sandy winding up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:05 PM GMT on January 25, 2013

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The January 2013 North American cold wave is winding down, after bringing five days of bitter cold to Canada and the Midwest and Northeast U.S. In the U.S., below-zero temperatures were recorded Friday morning in just six states east of the Rockies--half as many as on Thursday morning. The coldest spot was Saranac Lake in New York's Adirondack Mountains, which bottomed out at -18°F (-28°). In nearby Malone, NY, flooding is occurring, thanks to an ice jam on the Salmon River caused by this week's cold weather. The weather was a bit warmer on Mt. Washington, New Hampshire today, where the temperature of -17°F (-27°C) combined with a wind of 81 mph to create a wind chill of -61°F (-52°C). The most dangerous winter weather today will be due to the Wrath of Khan--a low pressure system traversing Tennessee and Kentucky has been named Winter Storm Kahn by TWC, and will bring as much as 0.5" of ice accumulation from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky through North Carolina and northern South Carolina, potentially causing major power outages. Snow will impact areas from the Ohio Valley through western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia, with 1" expected in D.C. and 1 - 3" in Baltimore.


Figure 1. A powerful extratropical storm with a central pressure of 984 mb begins to wind up about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, at 10 am EST January 25, 2013.

How low will it go? Massive Atlantic storm winding up
In the Northern Atlantic, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday is rapidly intensifying about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, and figures to become one of the most intense storms ever observed in the North Atlantic. This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 984 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center; the GFS and ECMWF models both predict that the storm will deepen by 60 mb in 24 hours, reaching a central pressure of 924 - 928 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. This is the central pressure one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is a very rare intensity for an extratropical storm to attain. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before reaching any land areas, and will only be a concern to shipping. The intensification process will be aided by the strong contrast between the frigid Arctic air flowing off the coast of Canada from this week's cold blast, and the warm air lying over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current. The ultimate strength of the storm will depend upon where the center tracks in relation to several warm eddies of the Gulf Stream along its path. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:

920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).

921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)

924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)

925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)

925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)

For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease in intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Links
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records

Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post, Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:
I too believe intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe, but I doubt our capacity to ever actually contact said life. Some might also consider the existence of sentient life elsewhere in the universe as somehow diminishing our significance. And while that may be true depending on who you ask, I would say it's not. And even if it is, I think that's because of the inherent egocentric philosophy we've adopted as a species. The universe doesn't revolve around us.
Great post. But most scientist would not believe that the Universe revolves around us. One day the word or title universe probably wont exist.
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Im working on a Hurricane Sandy Video...all about the history and track of the storm.

It will be about 8-9 mins long. I'll have done by Spring after names of last season are retired.

Very likely to get Sandy out so it'll be a time of reminiscence for me..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've been working on mine. Plan to get them all released by the end of February. I was going to do the best track...but decided against it given the added time.


Wuss.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20573
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A look at some of the photos drifting around the internet from Minnesota and Lake Superior over the past few days.









Very cool pics .
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Redwoods haven't grown in southern California for thousands of years. Climate is too warm and dry here, and it's been that way since long before man started making contrails.
Ok, now this is getting funny.
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256. beell
Looks like it's a neutral tilt to me in that frame. And I should try harder not to be so negatively tilted here.
:-)
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255. Skyepony (Mod)


Matijevic Hill Panorama
Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Cornell/Arizona State U.

Explanation: On January 25 (UT) 2004, the Opportunity rover fell to Mars, making today the 9th anniversary of its landing. After more than 3,200 sols (Mars solar days) the golf cart-sized robot from Earth is still actively exploring the Red Planet, though its original mission plan was for three months. Having driven some 35 kilometers (22 miles) from its landing site, Opportunity's panoramic camera recorded the segments of this scene, in November and December of last year. The digitally stitched panorama spans more than 210 degrees across the Matijevic Hill area along the western rim of Endeavour Crater. Features dubbed Copper Cliff, a dark outcrop, appear at the left, and Whitewater Lake, a bright outcrop, at the far right. The image is presented here in a natural color approximation of what the scene would look like to human eyes.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I shouldn't have wasted time not doing TCRs on my brother's computer after my motherboard went out the day after Christmas. He doesn't mind sharing, so I've started taking them up again. Doing Joyce instead of Isaac since I can't do the latter until after I get my computer back. With such a large setback, I'm seriously calling into question the likelihood of me finishing my TCRs by May, especially not with the "best track" still to be added for each storm.

I'll die trying though.

I've been working on mine. Plan to get them all released by the end of February. I was going to do the best track...but decided against it given the added time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The threat for severe weather and tornadoes continues to look quite high come next Tuesday as a large and powerful negatively positively-tilted trough exits into the central Plains. In fact...the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008 comes up as a model-based analogue.

Looking upstream it's hard to see that much energy reaching the surface at this point.

I'll have my eyes peeled.
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I shouldn't have wasted time not doing TCRs on my brother's computer after my motherboard went out the day after Christmas. He doesn't mind sharing, so I've started taking them up again. Doing Joyce instead of Isaac since I can't do the latter until after I get my computer back. With such a large setback, I'm seriously calling into question the likelihood of me finishing my TCRs by May, especially not with the "best track" still to be added for each storm.

I'll die trying though.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20573
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Dang, it sure looks dry south of 20*N in the Pacific.


Yeah. It's a really large area of very dry air south of 20N.
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Quoting Civicane49:

Dang, it sure looks dry south of 20*N in the Pacific.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
Quoting AussieStorm:


"Record Cold Temperatures"?????

None of those temps and in the - so how can they be record cold temperatures?


yes... they are..
We don't get those extreme temperatures here...even though I live up north.
By this time we should be in the 20s as minimum... isn't anything much below what's average considered a record?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting MississippiWx:


Looks positively tilted to me.

By the way, you...

Weather Underground has a chat. Try using it again sometimes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
AREA WEATHER REPORT...
__________________________

Weather report for my area this week from Tuesday... not even close to freezing point...



"Record Cold Temperatures"?????

None of those temps and in the - so how can they be record cold temperatures?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting beell:


That's a negative tilt trough?

No. I corrected my post.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting beell:


That's a negative tilt trough?


Looks positively tilted to me.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He's just a troll mad that he's constantly being banned...flag and minus the comment. It'll be gone soon enough.

That sort of stupidity deserves to be banned. I also WU-mailed Admin to perma-ban them.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
242. Skyepony (Mod)
Atlantic Bomb
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241. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The threat for severe weather and tornadoes continues to look quite high come next Tuesday as a large and powerful negatively-tilted trough exits into the central Plains. In fact...the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008 comes up as a model-based analogue.

img
src="http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3 /maps/2013/01/25/18/GFS_3_2013012518_F96_WSPD_500_ MB.png" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px; ">


That's a negative tilt trough?
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
457 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH...

.VERY COLD AIR IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS COLD AIR WILL ACCELERATE AS IT FLOWS
THROUGH GAPS IN THE MOUNTAIN RANGES ACROSS THE AREA. DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHILE
STRONG WINDS WILL PICK UP LOOSE SNOW AND GENERATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

AKZ131-261500-
/X.EXT.PAFC.BZ.W.0002.130126T0200Z-130127T1800Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
457 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013


...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST SUNDAY THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS...

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...WHILE FALLING SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING...UP TO 18
INCHES OF TRANSPORTABLE SNOW IS STILL AVAILABLE.


* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS. DRIVING WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT.


what is 18" of transportable snow supposed to mean?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting AussieStorm:


Not sure what your trying to show but I had to scroll down about to times to see then next comment. You need to fix up your post or delete it. It's put a massive hole in the blog.

He's just a troll mad that he's constantly being banned...flag and minus the comment. It'll be gone soon enough.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Not sure what your trying to show but I had to scroll down about to times to see then next comment. You need to fix up your post or delete it. It's put a massive hole in the blog.
I think he's doing that on purpose because he got banned couple of times.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8009
AREA WEATHER REPORT...
__________________________

Weather report for my area this week from Tuesday... not even close to freezing point...

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting VaporLA:


Not sure what your trying to show but I had to scroll down about to times to see then next comment. You need to fix up your post or delete it. It's put a massive hole in the blog.. Infact upon review, you've put the same image 37 times, which is just being an utter gutter troll. Goodbye.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
A look at some of the photos drifting around the internet from Minnesota and Lake Superior over the past few days.









Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Pretty much. When all you have is surface obs, it takes lots of looking at analogues and extrapolation. Paul Kocin explained this a little bit as well. Not perfect by any means, but it's all we have.

But even analogues from back then have only surface obs to look at. And no two systems are exactly alike so it's all guestimations.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
In fact, since y'all have to just believe me on most of this, the least I could do is prove that he actually came to Texas A&M. That's him in the orange.



Apologies for the crappy picture quality; the picture was taken several phones ago. Had to dig through some really old stuff to find it. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
Quoting AussieStorm:


How do you re-analyse upper air of an event years after that said even when at the time there was no way of knowing the make-up of the upper air. Seems like guestimating to me.

Pretty much. When all you have is surface obs, it takes lots of looking at analogues and extrapolation. Paul Kocin explained this a little bit as well. Not perfect by any means, but it's all we have.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
Quoting 1900hurricane:

You are right in that there weren't upper air observations back then, but at least one upper air reanalysis has been done on the event, which still is the cause of all-time cold records in several states. Paul Kocin (formerly of The Weather Channel) in particular has done a great deal of work into studying the extreme event. He was actually here at Texas A&M a few years back for a winter weather seminar and went into the event a little bit, including showing reanalyzed 500 mb charts. Alas, I don't have the charts nor can I find them online, so unfortunately you're going to have to take my word for it. I know, not exactly the most scientific thing in the world... :P

The point of my original post though was that shortly after Chicago's (now second) longest >1" snow streak, it got exceptionally cold and snowed a lot.


How do you re-analyse upper air of an event years after that said even when at the time there was no way of knowing the make-up of the upper air. Seems like guestimating to me.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
The threat for severe weather and tornadoes continues to look quite high come next Tuesday as a large and powerful negatively positively-tilted trough exits into the central Plains. In fact...the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008 comes up as a model-based analogue.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting redwagon:


Think we'll get something in the Hill Country?

Rain? It's in the realm of possibility, although I don't expect much from this incoming system. The shortwave near California looks pretty good right now, but it's really going to shear itself out a great deal before it gets here. Not a good recipe for anything noteworthy. Hopefully the next trough brings something more worthwhile.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
Quoting aspectre:
128 Grothar: It's snowing where we are.

Probably just your dandruff.

146 Neapolitan: "...LATEST FIRST CALENDAR DAY ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO:
Rank
[and]Date 1. JAN 25 2013 2. JAN 17 1899..."
51 1900hurricane: At first glance, I was surprised to see 1899 on that list, especially with the most powerful McFarland Event in US history occurring just over two weeks later.

Okay, that response just throws me. What objective measure could one apply to give it such a label?
It ain't as if they measured (or we can otherwise find evidence of) Rosby waves back then. And they sure as heck weren't sending probes up into the jet stream or stratosphere back then (nor, as far as I know, can we find surrogates that can be converted to past behaviour of the jet stream or stratosphere).
And no, I ain't tryin' to be argumentative here. I really don't know.

You are right in that there weren't upper air observations back then, but at least one upper air reanalysis has been done on the event, which still is the cause of all-time cold records in several states. Paul Kocin (formerly of The Weather Channel) in particular has done a great deal of work into studying the extreme event. He was actually here at Texas A&M a few years back for a winter weather seminar and went into the event a little bit, including showing reanalyzed 500 mb charts. Alas, I don't have the charts nor can I find them online, so unfortunately you're going to have to take my word for it. I know, not exactly the most scientific thing in the world... :P

The point of my original post though was that shortly after Chicago's (now second) longest >1" snow streak, it got exceptionally cold and snowed a lot.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
I too believe intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe, but I doubt our capacity to ever actually contact said life. Some might also consider the existence of sentient life elsewhere in the universe as somehow diminishing our significance. And while that may be true depending on who you ask, I would say it's not. And even if it is, I think that's because of the inherent egocentric philosophy we've adopted as a species. The universe doesn't revolve around us.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20573
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I believe bombgenesis has begun.



Think we'll get something in the Hill Country?
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Miami NWS Disco

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE
WINDS SLOWLY SWINGING FROM THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO A EASTERLY
DIRECTION. SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP AGAIN
INTO THE 80S WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 50 TO 60S OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST COAST AREAS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

For West Palm Beach...

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222. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:


So yes, Dumbass Trump


Do you have a link for that?
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1758
128 Grothar: It's snowing where we are.

Probably just dandruff.

146 Neapolitan: "...LATEST FIRST CALENDAR DAY ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO:
Rank
[and]Date ... 1. JAN 25 2013 ... 2. JAN 17 1899..."
51 1900hurricane: At first glance, I was surprised to see 1899 on that list, especially with the most powerful McFarland Event in US history occurring just over two weeks later.

Okay, that response just throws me. What objective measure could one apply to give it such a label?
It ain't as if they measured (or we can otherwise find evidence to trace) Rossby waves back then. And they sure as heck weren't sending probes up into the jet stream or stratosphere back then (nor can we find surrogates that can be converted to show the past behaviour of the jet stream or stratosphere).
And no, I ain't tryin' to be argumentative here. I really don't know.
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Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
219. wxmod
Quoting AussieStorm:
I think wxmod subscribes to the use of HARRP, the conspiricy theories that is.
Oh look it's focused over Southern California


Oh lookie here, it's centred over Southern Europe and Northern Eastern Australia.



I hope it doesn't move any further south, I don't want to get my brain fried.


Actually, I've never mentioned HAARP. Maybe you'd like to tell me about it.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1758
Powerful extratropical low over the North Atlantic:

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Quoting stormchaser19:




Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting LargoFl:
in 2 weeks might get interesting in the Northeast....

I can only hope... there is sooooo little snow here... :(
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Quoting allancalderini:
Finally.I have always believe we are not alone.


Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Saw this tweet today, not because I follow Donald Trump, but because Ryan Maue (another hopelessly blind person in GW denial, right alongside Joe B) retweeted it






The stupid thing about someone making a sarcastic comment like this is that in the last few decades, the globe has warmed, and the region which has warmed the fastest is the Arctic. As the Arctic has warmed faster than any other region in the planet, it has favored more blocking in this region, and presumably more stratospheric warming events (they've been occurring with increased frequency in the last decade). Both blocking and stratospheric warming events (which lead to more Arctic blocking) in the Arctic region decrease the pressure gradient between the higher and lower latitudes, creating a weaker jet stream, allowing for the jet to amplify more. When the jet stream is more amplified than usual, we see more polar air mass invasions into the lower latitudes.

So yes, Dumbass Trump, if Global Warming continues as it has, you can expect more brutal cold events across mid-latitude regions during the winter.

...you gotta love it when sarcasm fails.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
although it's not much snow (about half inch) it caused 5 accidents, 2 major in a 6 exit stretch...

very sparkly snow...


I took that pic while on CT I-95
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
*** JOKES ***

The Bacon Tree

Two Mexicans are stuck in the desert after crossing into the United States, wandering aimlessly and starving. They are about to just lie down and await death when all of a sudden Luis says . . .
"Hey, Pepe, do you smell what I smell? Ees bacon, I theenk."
"Ees, Luis, eet sure smell like bacon."
With renewed hope they struggle up the next sand dune, and there in the distance is a tree loaded with bacon.
There's raw bacon, there's fried bacon, back bacon, double-smoked bacon . . . every imaginable kind of cured pork.
"Pepe, Pepe, wees saved! Ees a bacon tree!"
"Luis, maybe ees a meerage? Wees in the desert, don't forget."
"Pepe, since when deed you ever hear of a meerage that smell like bacon? Ees no meerage, ees a bacon tree!"
And with that, Luis staggers towards the tree. He gets to within 5 metres, Pepe crawling close behind, when suddenly a machine gun opens up, and Luis drops like a wet sock. Mortally wounded, he warns Pepe with his dying breath . . .
"Pepe . . . Go back, man, you was right, ees not a bacon tree!"
"Luis, Luis, MI amigo . . . what ees it?"
"Pepe . . . ees not a bacon tree. Ees . . .


Ees . . .

Ees . . .



Ees . . .

Ees . . .


Ees . . .




Ees . . . a ham bush . . ."


********************************************

A man and his wife were sitting in the living room and he said to her, "Just so you know, I never want to live in a vegetative state, dependent on some machine and fluids from a bottle. If that ever happens, just pull the plug."
His wife got up, unplugged the TV and threw out all of his beer.

*****************************************

In the beginning God created day and night. He created day for footy matches, going to the beach and barbies. He created night for going prawning, sleeping and barbies. God saw that it was good.
Evening came and morning came and it was the second Day.

On the Second Day God created water - for surfing, swimming and barbies on the beach. God saw that it was good. Evening came and morning came and it was the Third Day.

On the Third Day God created the Earth to bring forth plants - to provide tobacco, malt and yeast for beer and wood for barbies. God saw that it was good. Evening came and morning came and it was the Fourth Day.

On the Fourth Day God created animals and crustaceans for chops, sausages, steak and prawns for barbies. God saw that it was good. Evening came and morning came and it was the Fifth Day.

On the Fifth day God created a bloke - to go to the footy, enjoy the beach, drink the beer and eat the meat and prawns at barbies. God saw that it was good. Evening came and morning came and it was the Sixth Day.

On the Sixth Day God saw that this bloke was lonely and needed someone to go to the footy, surf, drink beer, eat and stand around the barbie with. So God created Mates, and God saw that they were good blokes. God saw that it was good. Evening came and morning came and it was the Seventh Day.

On the Seventh Day God looked around at the twinkling barbie fires, heard the hiss of opening beer cans and the raucous laughter of all the Blokes, smelled the aroma of grilled chops and sizzling prawns and God saw that it was good. well almost good. God saw that the blokes were tired and needed a rest.

So God created Sheilas - to clean the house, bear children, wash, cook and clean the barbie. God saw that it was not just good, it was better than that, it was bloody great!

IT WAS AUSTRALIA !!

HAPPY AUSTRALIA DAY EVERYONE!!!!!
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
335 PM HST FRI JAN 25 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI...NIIHAU AND OAHU...

.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AND MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A BAND OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE SLOWING
FRONT PROVIDING A FURTHER FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INTENSE RAIN
RATES...THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

HIZ001>011-261445-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FF.A.0001.130127T2200Z-130129T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-
335 PM HST FRI JAN 25 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KAUAI...NIIHAU AND OAHU

* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS VERY DANGEROUS. REMEMBER
THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE RAINING HEAVILY WHERE YOU ARE FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.

MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTION IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BURKE
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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