North American cold wave winds down; Atlantic storm stronger than Sandy winding up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:05 PM GMT on January 25, 2013

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The January 2013 North American cold wave is winding down, after bringing five days of bitter cold to Canada and the Midwest and Northeast U.S. In the U.S., below-zero temperatures were recorded Friday morning in just six states east of the Rockies--half as many as on Thursday morning. The coldest spot was Saranac Lake in New York's Adirondack Mountains, which bottomed out at -18°F (-28°). In nearby Malone, NY, flooding is occurring, thanks to an ice jam on the Salmon River caused by this week's cold weather. The weather was a bit warmer on Mt. Washington, New Hampshire today, where the temperature of -17°F (-27°C) combined with a wind of 81 mph to create a wind chill of -61°F (-52°C). The most dangerous winter weather today will be due to the Wrath of Khan--a low pressure system traversing Tennessee and Kentucky has been named Winter Storm Kahn by TWC, and will bring as much as 0.5" of ice accumulation from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky through North Carolina and northern South Carolina, potentially causing major power outages. Snow will impact areas from the Ohio Valley through western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia, with 1" expected in D.C. and 1 - 3" in Baltimore.


Figure 1. A powerful extratropical storm with a central pressure of 984 mb begins to wind up about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, at 10 am EST January 25, 2013.

How low will it go? Massive Atlantic storm winding up
In the Northern Atlantic, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday is rapidly intensifying about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, and figures to become one of the most intense storms ever observed in the North Atlantic. This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 984 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center; the GFS and ECMWF models both predict that the storm will deepen by 60 mb in 24 hours, reaching a central pressure of 924 - 928 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. This is the central pressure one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is a very rare intensity for an extratropical storm to attain. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before reaching any land areas, and will only be a concern to shipping. The intensification process will be aided by the strong contrast between the frigid Arctic air flowing off the coast of Canada from this week's cold blast, and the warm air lying over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current. The ultimate strength of the storm will depend upon where the center tracks in relation to several warm eddies of the Gulf Stream along its path. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:

920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).

921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)

924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)

925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)

925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)

For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease in intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Links
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records

Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post, Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic

Jeff Masters

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There could be a cyclone threatening Madagascar in a few days. Models have been a little inconsistent on intensity but the 6z GFS got pretty aggressive with it:







It just barely keeps it offshore, as do the rest of the major models.
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Surface Analyses & Observations / Europe / North Atlantic

13 UTC, 940 mb


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Got this in my daily Eco-Digest. Saving a Humpback whale in the Sea of Cortez;

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How low did the low go?

It's analyzed as 937mb right now. Was it lower at any time? Or is it still strengthening?

Didn't watch.
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Good Morning All..
Made it back from SC yesterday afternoon..
Missed the icing event there..



Glad i did..
Beautiful sunset here in pcola last eve..
Too lazy to get my camera out..LoL..
All is well.. :)



Current Jet Stream..




Most Current GFS as of 1800UTC last night..

NAM
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning gang!

Evening Aussie!

Mornin'
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Morning gang!

Evening Aussie!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
Good morning. Looks like we could be in for a multi-day severe weather event this week in the South/Southeast. Tuesday definitely has the most potential, I would not be surprised at all to see that day get a moderate risk. The threat on Wednesday would likely be mainly in the morning with leftover activity from Tuesday/Tuesday night. SPC notes the potential for a possibly significant damaging wind event Tuesday, with a threat for tornadoes as well.
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302. vanwx
Quoting aspectre:
128 Grothar: It's snowing where we are.

Probably just dandruff.

146 Neapolitan: "...LATEST FIRST CALENDAR DAY ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO:
Rank
[and]Date ... 1. JAN 25 2013 ... 2. JAN 17 1899..."
51 1900hurricane: At first glance, I was surprised to see 1899 on that list, especially with the most powerful McFarland Event in US history occurring just over two weeks later.

Okay, that response just throws me. What objective measure could one apply to give it such a label?
It ain't as if they measured (or we can otherwise find evidence to trace) Rossby waves back then. And they sure as heck weren't sending probes up into the jet stream or stratosphere back then (nor can we find surrogates that can be converted to show the past behaviour of the jet stream or stratosphere).
And no, I ain't tryin' to be argumentative here. I really don't know.


Would this help?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm
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SPC latest outlook for the mid week outbreak.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE PRESENTS A BETTER GENERAL CONSENSUS
IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WHILE THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
CONFIGURATIONS AND MAGNITUDES OF THE VARIOUS FLOW FIELDS AND
PARAMETERS...ANALYSIS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/GFS ENSEMBLE AND
DPROG/DT LOOPS LEND SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR THE REINTRODUCTION OF A
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST...NOW VALID FOR D4/TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT INTO AT LEAST PART OF D5/WEDNESDAY.

AS INDICATED IN THE D3 OTLK...A WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S. AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. WHILE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND LESS FULLY-PHASED UPPER
TROUGH WHEN COMPARED WITH GFS/UKMET MODELS...EVEN IT COMES AROUND TO
FORECASTING AN AMPLIFIED AND SUBSTANTIALLY PHASED LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SCNTRL AND ERN U.S. BEGINNING D4/TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH D5/WEDNESDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
RAPID ONSET OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SHARPENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THEN TO THE
TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS IN
EITHER SUPERCELL OR LINEAR FORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX TO SERN MO/WRN TN. SQUALL LINE OR LINE SEGMENT EVOLUTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME AS COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS FURTHER INTENSIFY AMIDST MODEST INSTABILITY. DAMAGING
WINDS...POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD...WILL BE THE GREATEST HAZARD WITH THIS
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
TORNADOES AS WELL.

EXPECT THE STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A QLSC WITH DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY/D5. BEYOND THIS TIME...GREATER MODEL SPREAD AND RESULTING
UNCERTAINTY BEGIN TO IMPACT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER.
HAVE OPTED TO RELY ON GFS ENSEMBLE JOINT PROBABILITY FORECASTS FOR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THESE PRODUCTS SUGGEST
THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH EWD
EXTENT DESPITE STRONG QPF AND UVV SIGNALS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT
TO THE EAST COAST. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE ADDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS IF MODEL CONSENSUS IMPROVES.

..CARBIN.. 01/26/2013

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

...ICY ROADS AND AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...

.THE RECENT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ON AREA ROADWAYS IS COMBINING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS TO
PRODUCE BLACK ICE. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW A NEW GLAZE OF ICE TO
FORM ON ELEVATED SURFACES AS WELL AS SOME ROADS AND BRIDGES.
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY MAY BE SEVERELY RESTRICTED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
Folks around Chicago take heed and I hope not too many power outages on tomorrows cold morning up there.....................421 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013 /521 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2013/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FREEZING RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

* MAIN IMPACT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATING ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES
WILL WEIGH THEM DOWN AND WITH INCREASING WIND COULD RESULT IN
POWER OUTAGES. IN ADDITION...PAVEMENT AND SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING...SO ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FREEZE
ON CONTACT AND RESULT IN VERY ICY AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. SIDEWAYS AND WALKWAYS COULD
ALSO TURN TO SHEETS OF ICE MAKING EVEN WALKING DIFFICULT AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. THIS STORM IS STILL IN
THE DEVELOPING STAGES AND ANY MINOR CHANGES IN FORECAST
TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECASTED
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT ICING THREAT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER
STORM.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
GFS at 48 hrs..take a look at west coast..whew....
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7-day for Tampa Bay...........................
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Good Morning Folks!..full moon out huh...well the Blogs Coffee is perked for when you all get here...have a great day everyone!
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Garry is continuing to weaken over the South Pacific as it moves south-southeastward. Strong northwesterly shear and dry air are weakening the cyclone. Expect additional weakening of the cyclone in the next few days before dissipating.

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Based on the recent GFS run, the cold front that is currently northwest of Hawaii is forecast to be over my area on the island of Oahu by Sunday evening through Monday. Flash flood watch has been issued for the northwestern Hawaiian Islands including Oahu. The approaching front should bring some locally heavy rain and the chance for thunderstorms.
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291. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #27
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY ONE (09F)
18:00 PM FST January 26 2013
======================================

Southern Cooks Island Alerts
-----------------------------
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, TAKUTEA, ATIU,MAUKE,MITIARO, MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (985 hPa) located near 18.5S 159.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position fair based on hourly GOES infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has decreased in past 24 hours. Deep convection started to flare up in the southern semi-circle past 6 hours. System lies just east of an upper short wave trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center being less than half a degree from dense overcast, yielding DT=2.5 MET=3.0 and PT=2.5. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W2.0/24 HRS

Global models move the system southeastwards with further weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 20.8S 158.7W - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 22.9S 157.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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290. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20122013
10:00 AM RET January 26 2013
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (999 hPa) located at 13.1S 65.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 30 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the northeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.1S 64.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.2S 62.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 13.3S 59.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.5S 55.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
Taking benefit of a weakening southerly vertical wind shear, convective activity has consolidated within the past 12 hours. It shows now on meteosat7 visible channel imagery a curved band pattern at about 0.4 to 0.5. Last SSMIS swaths (F17 at 0059z, f16 at 0113z ET F18 at 0402z) confirm that convective pattern is progressively improving.

Dvorak maximum winds estimation (30 knots) is confirmed thanks to 14043 buoy at 0300z that reported 29 knot winds and a pressure deepening despite system center is shifting away westwards. 0522z ASCAT swath reveals a very asymmetric winds structure. Strongest winds extend far from the center in the eastern sector when gale force winds extension remains small in the western semi-circle. System is expected to track globally westwards within the next 72 lead time hours. On and after Sunday wind shear should clearly strengthen over this forecast track and a significant deepening seems therefore not likely, a weakening is even expected Sunday and Monday.

Thursday and Wednesday, environmental conditions are expected to clearly improve aloft as vertical wind shear decreases and as upper level equatorward divergence keeps on being very favorable. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides.

System is therefore expected to regularly strengthening and pass under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east and is expected to re-curve southwestwards from Wednesday.
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289. wxmod
Quoting hydrus:
When we see things out there, some have vanished, some still may be there, but not as they were. If we lived for ever, we could record everything. For instance, the Milky way Galaxy rotates every 225 million years. Astronomers seem to nail down how far off ancient galaxies are. My question is, with lensing, dark energy and dark matter involved, is the math and physics applied to all this at all accurate? Or if it is wrong, does it cut us off at the base of whats really happening out there.


I would guess that it's going to be a while before there's a discovery that answers that, though some people will argue adamantly that we know what we're looking at. No doubt we are totally unaware of almost everything. That seems to be how it's always been. No point in thinking 2013 is a particularly enlightened time.
That said, it amazes me personally, me with my unreliable human brain, what has been discovered and converted into tools.
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Not that I'm not thankful for this or anything, but, ever notice how the strongest storms, like this uber powerful extratropical low (at least, that's what it's forecast to become) out in the north Atlantic, almost never hit land at or near their peak intensities? It doesn't matter if they're hurricanes or mid-latitude weather systems, it almost never happens. A tad interesting, for sure.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Ah, yes. Words bind, don't they? :)



Indeed, language is weird that way.
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Quoting Jedkins01:




I prefer not use the word alien when referring to intelligent life other than us. I prefer intelligent beings. Mainly because of the history of the use of the word alien makes it feel silly agreeing that aliens exist.
Ah, yes. Words bind, don't they? :)
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Brazilian artist Nele Azevedo's ice people: 1,000 small sitting figures made from ice. The Berlin installation, intended to draw attention to climate change in the Arctic, lasted until his last figure melted in the heat of the day.

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/ 2013/01/melting-masterpieces-impressive-works-of-a rt-made-from-snow-and-ice/272538/
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Quoting beell:


You're not alone by any means! And...some of those painful lessons end up being great motivators if you survive.


That's why I'm so annoying (challenging :P) here. I don't allow anyone to walk away from an argument without getting a feel of the reasons for their particular claims. If they're wrong I have to correct them. I'd expect everyone to do the same to me. Even if those lessons are painful (as you accurately claim), they're ones worth learning.
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Australian Conditions right now....

Hottest: Cloncurry Ap, Qld 108.5°F
Coldest: Mt Wellington, Tas 45.7°F
Windiest: Cape Moreton, Qld ENE 61km/h(37.9mph)
Wettest: Williamtown, NSW/ACT 6.0mm last hr.

With that, I'm off to Celebrate Australia Day by going to the beach, having a BBQ then watching the Fireworks. Catch ya's later tonight.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I too believe intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe, but I doubt our capacity to ever actually contact said life. Some might also consider the existence of sentient life elsewhere in the universe as somehow diminishing our significance. And while that may be true depending on who you ask, I would say it's not. And even if it is, I think that's because of the inherent egocentric philosophy we've adopted as a species. The universe doesn't revolve around us.




I prefer not use the word alien when referring to intelligent life other than us. I prefer intelligent beings. Mainly because of the history of the use of the word alien makes it feel silly agreeing that aliens exist.

I'd say it's quite a logical conclusion to say other intelligent beings exist in the Universe when you consider how vast it is. Now that can mean a lot of things. Are they anything like us, much different, vastly superior, or comparable? What if they have physical properties unlike what we are used to? What if they have interdimensional capability?

Yes I know, weird things to discuss. But anyone with a human brain can acknowledge that we are not the highest beings in existence.
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Quoting hydrus:
Neat stuff. I was checking out how many solar eclipses we will have for the next ten years. Some neat things coming. Including comets.


A very nice comet in November should be really spectacular.Comet ISON, which on Nov. 28. I still remember seeing Halley's Comet back in 1986. Got the commemorative coin from the local newspaper.
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Grrrrr, it's so frustrating to me when Sky News and Weatherzone use the words "mini-Tornado".

There is no such thing as a "mini" Tornado.

I tweeted Weatherzone about the use of the word "mini" tornado, yet Sky news Australia is still using that word.
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Quoting Chicklit:

hey hydrus...been working my tailfeathers off.
looking forward to summer.
glad you guys are keeping the blog lively during off-season. came on here looking for moon pictures. evidently, tomorrow is the full; today it's like 99% there.
Neat stuff. I was checking out how many solar eclipses we will have for the next ten years. Some neat things coming. Including comets.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
As the Arctic has warmed faster than any other region in the planet, it has favored more blocking in this region, and presumably more stratospheric warming events (they've been occurring with increased frequency in the last decade).


I saw the data on the recent increase of blocking events. But I didn't see anything convincing that showed an increase in SSW events (they might have slightly increased in the last ten years, but are sitting at a 60 year average). Do you have a chart or the raw data that shows this? Just curious...thanks
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276. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


I try very hard to keep my mouth shut when I'm out of my league. To be soundly defeated (humiliatied is probably more apropos here...) on sonething you lack knowledge of is one of the worst feelings in the world. Ignorance is a terrible thing.


You're not alone by any means! And...some of those painful lessons end up being great motivators if you survive.
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Quoting wxmod:


interesting idea
When we see things out there, some have vanished, some still may be there, but not as they were. If we lived for ever, we could record everything. For instance, the Milky way Galaxy rotates every 225 million years. Astronomers seem to nail down how far off ancient galaxies are. My question is, with lensing, dark energy and dark matter involved, is the math and physics applied to all this at all accurate? Or if it is wrong, does it cut us off at the base of whats really happening out there.
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Quoting beell:
Aw, thanks, Kori.
(i also know when not to "challenge" if I'm beyond my knowledge base, lol!)


I try very hard to keep my mouth shut when I'm out of my league. To be soundly defeated (humiliatied is probably more apropos here...) on sonething you lack knowledge of is one of the worst feelings in the world. Ignorance is a terrible thing.
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Quoting hydrus:
Whats up Chicklit.

hey hydrus...been working my tailfeathers off.
looking forward to summer.
glad you guys are keeping the blog lively during off-season. came on here looking for moon pictures. evidently, tomorrow is the full; today it's like 99% there.
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272. beell
Aw, thanks, Kori.
(i also know when not to "challenge" if I'm beyond my knowledge base, lol!)
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okay, well glad the superstorm is not threatening land. great blog by Dr. Masters!
goodnight all.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Taking Off For the Night - Stay Safe All- Sleep Well - Stay Warm.....
Good night Ped.
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269. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
what is 18" of transportable snow supposed to mean?


I think they mean the depth of snow that can be blown about ..
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Quoting Chicklit:
Surface Winds North Atlantic
Whats up Chicklit.
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Taking Off For the Night - Stay Safe All- Sleep Well - Stay Warm.....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4949
266. wxmod
Quoting hydrus:
One day the word or title universe probably wont exist.


interesting idea
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265. wxmod
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Surface Winds North Atlantic
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Quoting beell:
Looks like it's a neutral tilt to me in that frame. And I should try harder not to be so negatively tilted here.
:-)


You keep people on their toes. Challenging people is a good thing.
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262. beell
Quoting AussieStorm:


How do you re-analyse upper air of an event years after that said even when at the time there was no way of knowing the make-up of the upper air. Seems like guestimating to me.


Just as certain mid and upper air patterns are related to resulting surface temps, winds, pressure, fronts, and warm/cold air advection-one probably could make a decent attempt at reconstructing the pattern(s) that produced the surface features. Not totally a guess.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I too believe intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe, but I doubt our capacity to ever actually contact said life. Some might also consider the existence of sentient life elsewhere in the universe as somehow diminishing our significance. And while that may be true depending on who you ask, I would say it's not. And even if it is, I think that's because of the inherent egocentric philosophy we've adopted as a species. The universe doesn't revolve around us.
Great post. But most scientist would not believe that the Universe revolves around us. One day the word or title universe probably wont exist.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.