North American cold wave winds down; Atlantic storm stronger than Sandy winding up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:05 PM GMT on January 25, 2013

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The January 2013 North American cold wave is winding down, after bringing five days of bitter cold to Canada and the Midwest and Northeast U.S. In the U.S., below-zero temperatures were recorded Friday morning in just six states east of the Rockies--half as many as on Thursday morning. The coldest spot was Saranac Lake in New York's Adirondack Mountains, which bottomed out at -18°F (-28°). In nearby Malone, NY, flooding is occurring, thanks to an ice jam on the Salmon River caused by this week's cold weather. The weather was a bit warmer on Mt. Washington, New Hampshire today, where the temperature of -17°F (-27°C) combined with a wind of 81 mph to create a wind chill of -61°F (-52°C). The most dangerous winter weather today will be due to the Wrath of Khan--a low pressure system traversing Tennessee and Kentucky has been named Winter Storm Kahn by TWC, and will bring as much as 0.5" of ice accumulation from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky through North Carolina and northern South Carolina, potentially causing major power outages. Snow will impact areas from the Ohio Valley through western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia, with 1" expected in D.C. and 1 - 3" in Baltimore.


Figure 1. A powerful extratropical storm with a central pressure of 984 mb begins to wind up about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, at 10 am EST January 25, 2013.

How low will it go? Massive Atlantic storm winding up
In the Northern Atlantic, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday is rapidly intensifying about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, and figures to become one of the most intense storms ever observed in the North Atlantic. This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 984 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center; the GFS and ECMWF models both predict that the storm will deepen by 60 mb in 24 hours, reaching a central pressure of 924 - 928 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. This is the central pressure one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is a very rare intensity for an extratropical storm to attain. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before reaching any land areas, and will only be a concern to shipping. The intensification process will be aided by the strong contrast between the frigid Arctic air flowing off the coast of Canada from this week's cold blast, and the warm air lying over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current. The ultimate strength of the storm will depend upon where the center tracks in relation to several warm eddies of the Gulf Stream along its path. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:

920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).

921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)

924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)

925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)

925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)

For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease in intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Links
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records

Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post, Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic

Jeff Masters

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Our friend in the North Atlantic sure is a looker!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I could see it getting maybe a little stronger over the next 12 hours, but not by much. Bombgenesis is just about complete now. No Extratropical pressure records are going to fall today.


Not even close to living up to the hype by some on here but then things rarely do.
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Queensland wild weather gallery, January 2013

Just one of the photo's from this gallery.


Goodnight all.
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Quoting nymore:


Looks to be about as low as it will get.

I could see it getting maybe a little stronger over the next 12 hours, but not by much. Bombgenesis is just about complete now. No Extratropical pressure records are going to fall today.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667


Looks to be about as low as it will get.
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Dang, those ASCAT images Aussie posted sure show a lot of 50+ knot winds. Sure would be a bad place to be on the surface, especially given the fetch.
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06Z GFS (initialized midnight here) analyzed our friend in the North Atlantic to be sub 940 mb. I imagine it's strengthened even more since then.



You can also see it starting to go warm core on the overlaid 1000-500 mb thickness chart with the closed 534 dm thickness contour completely enclosing the center of circulation. Expect the warm core to strengthen as bombgenesis ends and the warm seclusion process continues.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
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Thanks again!
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350. VR46L
This site includes visual Sat and radars of Iceland ..

Icelandic Met office

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
Ah! Thanks for posting those. Spectacular ET low indeed.. should continue deepen even further.
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Quoting pcola57:
1 KM Visible Satellite for Southern Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Michigan


Thanks!! Yep i'am aware of those 1km from dupage. I'am particularly looking for close-ups of the intense ET low swirling in North Atlantic.
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Another good link.
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Morning Doc!
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340. etxwx
Good morning all. And a belated Happy Australia Day to everyone down under. It's another warm and foggy morning here in East Texas. I'm trying to resist starting the garden early - it's difficult because the high is forecast to be in the upper ranges of 70F today.

We have a flock of about 20 Turkey Vultures who winter here in the neighborhood, so today we have buzzards in the fog:



On sunnier mornings they like to do this:



Sometimes the backyard looks like a scene from an Edward Gorey drawing. :) Have a good (and buzzard free) day everyone!
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339. JeffMasters (Admin)
The Free University of Berlin has named the huge Atlantic low "Jolle." You can see a nice AVHRR image of the east side of the storm at Bern University.

Jeff Masters
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324:

Am I reading that right?

They just got like 2 feet of rain a few days ago, and now the forecast is another 8 to 12 inches?!
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
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335. VR46L
Quoting hurricane23:
Looking for some 1km sat close-ups of intense tropical low in north atl if you have any links please share.


Am its not a tropical low ... just an extropical winter storm ..:)





Dont know if this is what you are looking for but its one of the best links I have seen for the North Atlantic

Link

RTS ... At the moment I am hitting 32 knots ..If its UK met sources it is in Miles or knots

If its an Irish source they use any of 3 measures and if its continental Europe it will be in KMS..

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
This is how my Australia Day Ended.

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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Better than Siesta Key...???

It must've been fixed somehow.

(Added:)

Oh wait. The people of Siesta Key would be much less inclined to vote in that sort of thing at all, while the St. Pete folks would be inclined to round up everyone they could.
..well from my own standpoint, ive been to siesta key beach and its nice but clearwater beach is bigger and i think better over all,especially for families, more to do there..siesta key is more for the retired older folks,which is great too..just my own view about it..actually im surprised daytona beach didnt come up in the top 3
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NSW COASTAL VALLEYS FROM THE QUEENSLAND BORDER TO LOWER HUNTER INCLUDING THE UPPER MACINTYRE VALLEY FROM LATE SATURDAY ONWARDS
Issued at 12:20 pm EDT on Saturday 26 January 2013
Note: This Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning [see note below].

Ex-tropical cyclone Oswald is expected to move south over the weekend into NSW and bring widespread heavy rain to the NSW north and mid north coasts and parts of the northern tablelands.

At this stage there is a greater than 75% chance that flooding as well as local flash flooding will develop along the coastal river valleys from the Queensland Border to Taree, as well as the upper Macintyre Valley in the Northern Tablelands. Flooding is expected to develop from late Saturday and into Sunday and Monday as the weather system moves southwards over the weekend.

1. Upper Macintyre - moderate to major flooding

2. Tweed Valley - moderate to major flooding

3. Brunswick Valley - moderate to major flooding

4. Richmond and Wilsons Valleys - moderate to major flooding

5. Clarence Valley (including Orara) - moderate to major flooding

6. Coffs Harbour - moderate to major flooding

7. Bellinger, Nambucca and Kalang Valleys - moderate to major flooding

8. Macleay Valley - moderate to major flooding

9. Hastings and Camden Haven (Logans Crossing) - moderate to major flooding

10. Manning Valley - moderate to major flooding

11. Patterson and Williams - moderate flooding

A Severe Weather Warning is current for heavy rain for people in the Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Northern Tablelands and North West Slopes & Plains forecast districts.

This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop. Flood Warnings will be issued if Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service.
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For GA:

GFS
DISPLAYING MORE IN THE WAY OF PRE FRONTAL ACTIVITY AND ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING MESO LOWS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT
DIFFERENCES FEW BEYOND THAT WITH TIMING OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY INCREASES
LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO
MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. 50 TO 60 KT JET AT 850MB
AND DEPENDING ON IF MESO LOW FORMS...COULD SEE INCREASED HELICITY
VALUES AS WELL
. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING THROUGH NEST WEEK
WITH ONLY ACTION NOW TO BE BEEFING UP THE WORDING IN THE HWO.
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330. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #28
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY ONE (09F)
0:00 AM FST January 27 2013
======================================

Southern Cooks Island Alerts
-----------------------------
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, TAKUTEA, ATIU,MAUKE,MITIARO, MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (995 hPa) located near 20.0S 158.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 17 knots. Position poor based on hourly GOES infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
95 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle
70 NM from the center elsewhere

Overall organization has not changed much in the past 24 hours. Deep convection persistent past 24 hours. System lies east of an upper short wave trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center with MG surround, yielding DT=4.0 MET=3.5 and PT=3.0. Final Dvorak number based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it south southeastwards with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.1S 157.7W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 24.1S 156.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 28.7S 150.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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SPEED SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT MORE THAN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH WOULD
INDICATE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY OF A SQUALL LINE/QLCS TYPE SEVERE
MODE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD DEFINITELY INCREASE THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IF
THIS VERIFIED.
..BUT ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
__________________________________________

I love the ECMWF...hope it verifies.
After this system 60s and 70s for highs is over, its back to highs in the 40s.
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For Memphis:

.DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS)
POSSIBILITY DEVELOPS. MODEL INSTABILITY IS JUST ADEQUATE BUT
ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD.
GOOD VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD WILL EXIST WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...SO BASED ON
THE LATEST MODELS CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN THE QLCS OR AHEAD OF THE QLCS IN SUPERCELLS.??

-----------------------------------
i'm not thinking supercells but we've got 5 days to figure it out.
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THE MODELS DO INDICATE A RATHER POTENT SYSTEM WITH STRONG
LIFT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THEY ALSO SHOW RATHER STRONG WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AS WELL AS ALOFT SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF
400-600 M2/S2.
COMBINING WITH THE HIGH SHEAR LOOKS TO BE SOLID
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPTS 65-67 DEGREES AND 850MB THETA E VALUES OF
330-334K. SUCH RICH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT GREATER INSTABILITY EVEN
WITH AN OVERNIGHT TIMING...LOOK FOR 500-1000 J/KG OF ML/MU CAPE.

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325. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20122013
16:00 PM RET January 26 2013
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (999 hPa) located at 13.4S 65.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center, extending up to 30 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 130 NM in the northeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 64.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.0S 62.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.2S 57.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.1S 54.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
==========================
Taking benefit of a weakening southerly vertical wind shear, convective activity has consolidated last night. It keeps on organizing as a curved band at about 0.4 to 0.5. 0522z ASCAT and 0723z OSCAT swaths reveals a very asymmetric winds structure.

Strongest winds extend far from the center in the northeastern quadrant when extension remains small in the western semi-circle. System is expected to track globally westwards within the next 72-84 hours lead time. As expected south southeasterly wind shear is recently strengthening back and low level vortex has temporarily been partially exposed south of the main convective activity (refer to meteosat7 1100z and 1200z imagery). Southeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to keeps on being unfavorable until monday late over this forecast track and a significant deepening seems therefore not likely, a weakening should even occur within Sunday and Monday.

Thursday and Wednesday, environmental conditions are expected to clearly improve aloft as vertical wind shear decreases and as upper level equatorward divergence keeps on being very favorable. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides.

System is therefore expected to regularly strengthening and pass under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east and is expected to re-curve south westwards along the eastern Malagasy coastline from Wednesday.
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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales

Significant Weather Media Release
Issued at 2:30 pm EDT on Saturday 26 January 2013.

Heavy rain, gale force winds and dangerous surf over the long weekend



The Bureau of Meteorology is warning that ex-tropical cyclone "Oswald" will bring heavy rain, gale force winds and damaging surf conditions to the northern half of the New South Wales coast over the long weekend, and that these conditions may extend to southwards to impact Newcastle, Sydney and Wollongong on Monday and Tuesday.

The Bureau's New South Wales Regional Director, Barry Hanstrum, said that the low-pressure system currently affecting Queensland will continue to track south, bringing heavy rain and the potential for major flooding to New South Wales river valleys from the Queensland border to the Hunter Valley, and possibly further southward.

"Heavy rainfall has already commenced over far north-east NSW and this will extend further south to the mid-north coast and adjacent ranges on Sunday, and possibly reach the Sydney Metropolitan area on Monday. Communities currently at immediate risk include Ballina, Byron Bay, Grafton, Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie," Mr Hanstrum said."

"Widespread heavy rainfall of around 200mm is expected from the Queensland border to Port Macquarie. Localised falls in excess of 300mm, may lead to flash flooding in those areas."

"On Sunday the rainfall is expected to extend west of the Dividing Range, affecting Moree, Inverell and southwards to to impact eastern parts of the Hunter Valley including Newcastle."

"Gale force winds combined with an increasing easterly swell will also produce high seas and damaging surf conditions, with coastal erosion possible in vulnerable areas from Sunday.

"While it is still too early to forecast the exaxt path of the low pressure system, our guidance now suggests there is the potential for heavy rain and damaging winds to affect Newcastle, the Central Coast, Sydney and Wollongong on Monday" Mr Hanstrum said.

The rain and wind will ease from most areas on Tuesday as the low moves offshore and tracks eastward, but dangerous surf will continue into Wednesday," Mr Hanstrum said.

Residents and holiday-makers should stay tuned for the latest warnings through the Bureau's website and through media channels.

NSW SES Commissioner Murray Kear is urging holiday-makers to consider the severe weather when making their travel plans.

"Only necessary travel on roads should be done over the long weekend period in these areas as there is the potential for major roads and highways to be cut off by floodwater. If you do come across a flooded road, don't drive through it. Motorists should stay up to date with the latest road information from
livetraffic.com.

"People holidaying in the affected areas should also keep up to date with the latest weather information. Campers, in particular, should move to higher ground during the severe weather as there is the potential for low-lying areas to be inundated," Mr Kear said.

"If you need emergency help in a flood or storm call the NSW SES on 132 500. If your situation is life-threatening call 000," he added.
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1 KM Visible Satellite for Southern Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Michigan
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This is the first JTWC warning track on the Madagascar system I mentioned. It shows a minimal Cat. 1 equivalent approaching the island in 5 days:

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Quoting LargoFl:
Clearwater Beach named Best Beach town!!..................CLEARWATER --
USA TODAY Travel readers crowned Clearwater Beach the best beach town in Florida.

Readers voted online on 10 nominations submitted by "Dr. Beach" %u2014 aka Florida International University professor and coastal expert Stephen P. Leatherman.

Nearly 30,000 votes were received, and Clearwater was a clear winner with more than 25% of the tally, followed by Siesta Key, Cocoa Beach and Sanibel Island.


Better than Siesta Key...???

It must've been fixed somehow.

(Added:)

Oh wait. The people of Siesta Key would be much less inclined to vote in that sort of thing at all, while the St. Pete folks would be inclined to round up everyone they could.
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 440
Talk about when the s*** hit's the fan. Holy molely.

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Current model data suggests that we could see a fairly widespread severe weather event with damaging wind the primary threat

Long range guidance shows another round of wet weather around February 6th but we stay relatively mild into February with the pattern returning to a trough in the West and ridge in the East.
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Looking for some 1km sat close-ups of intense tropical low in north atl if you have any links please share.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Looks like we could be in for a multi-day severe weather event this week in the South/Southeast. Tuesday definitely has the most potential, I would not be surprised at all to see that day get a moderate risk. The threat on Wednesday would likely be mainly in the morning with leftover activity from Tuesday/Tuesday night. SPC notes the potential for a possibly significant damaging wind event Tuesday, with a threat for tornadoes as well.


I'm hoping for a SE trend of the trough, to bring some of it to GA.
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE ADDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS IF MODEL CONSENSUS IMPROVES.

Looks like mainly your severe weather "Opening Day" squall line.
Maybe we get something like April 4th 2011 squall line. I couldnt go anywhere after that with pinetrees down everywhere. My house didnt see any winds over 40mph though.
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Not long back from The Entrance, Central Coast, New South Wales. Beach swimming was beautiful, water was nice and refreshing, the fish'n'chips was delicious and the fireworks were awesome. What a way to end Australia Day. No doubt about it, we live in the best country in the world. I hope everyone else had an awesome Australia Day.









I'm uploading the video of the fireworks to youtube right now, once it's ready I'll post a link here.
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Looking at UKMet office radar animation, it looks like parts of western England have already have sustained winds of 39kts and gusts to 56kts (I think,) unless they're using kilometers, in which case this is no big deal...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Clearwater Beach named Best Beach town!!..................CLEARWATER --
USA TODAY Travel readers crowned Clearwater Beach the best beach town in Florida.

Readers voted online on 10 nominations submitted by "Dr. Beach" — aka Florida International University professor and coastal expert Stephen P. Leatherman.

Nearly 30,000 votes were received, and Clearwater was a clear winner with more than 25% of the tally, followed by Siesta Key, Cocoa Beach and Sanibel Island.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Quoting KoritheMan:


I try very hard to keep my mouth shut when I'm out of my league. To be soundly defeated (humiliatied is probably more apropos here...) on sonething you lack knowledge of is one of the worst feelings in the world. Ignorance is a terrible thing.
Kori, You should hear me at my 10 year old grandson's basketball games.... Don't know what I'm talkin' bout , but everybody in the gym knows it... Another game in 2 hours. I will try to keep the mouthhole quiet today....NOT
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There could be a cyclone threatening Madagascar in a few days. Models have been a little inconsistent on intensity but the 6z GFS got pretty aggressive with it:







It just barely keeps it offshore, as do the rest of the major models.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.