Bitter cold and heavy lake effect snows continue in the Midwest and Northeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on January 23, 2013

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A classic January North American cold wave continues to bring bitter cold to much of Eastern Canada and the Midwest and Northeast U.S., and heavy lake effect snows to the shores of the Great Lakes. The intense cold was centered near the Ontario/Quebec border this Wednesday morning, where a numbingly low temperature of -45°F (-43°C) was observed at Rouyn, Quebec. The 2 mph wind created a wind chill of -54°F (-48°C). One other station in Canada, Pointe Claveau, Quebec also reported a wind chill of -54°F, thanks to a temperature of -19°F (-28°C) and a wind of 38 mph. In the U.S., below-zero temperatures were recorded Wednesday morning in eleven states east of the Rockies. The coldest air was centered over Northern Maine, where the temperature plummeted to -36°F (-37°C) at Estcourt Station. No doubt the most fun place to be in all of North America this morning was on top of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire, where the temperature of -35°F (-37°C) combined with a wind of 69 mph to create a truly astonishing wind chill of -85°F (-65°C)!

The weather was a bit less extreme, but nonetheless notably cold, in Washington DC, which bottomed out at 15°F this morning--the coldest it has been there in nearly four years, since March 3, 2009. DC hit a high of just 32°F on Tuesday--the first high temperature of 32° or below in DC since January 22, 2012. The forecast calls for DC to remain below freezing for a 6-day period. According to Ian Livingston of the Capital Weather Gang, the last time D.C. had more than four consecutive days below freezing was during the winter of 2004 - 2005, when the city had a 6-day below-freezing streak. Here in Southeast Michigan where I live, it got below zero for the first time in nearly two years on Tuesday. During my late afternoon cross-country ski adventure on the frozen lake that I live by, I alternated between marveling at the beauty of the swirling "snow devils" kicked up by the gusts of 20 mph, and quailing before their brutal impact in the 7°F cold. I prefer it about 20° warmer for my cross-country ski adventures, thank you!


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tuesday's lake effect snowstorms taken at 3:20 pm EST January 22, 2013. The most concentrated band of snow was affecting the east shore of Lake Ontario (far right of image) near Oswego, New York. Up to 32" of snow fell in 24 hours in this band. Note the thin streaks of snow to the southwest of Lake Michigan in north central Illinois. According the the National Weather Service in Chicago, these bands of snow were lake-effect induced, but not from Lake Michigan--the snow was due to cold air flowing over warm waters in power plant cooling ponds. Image credit: NASA.

The frigid Arctic air blasting over the unusually warm Great Lakes have created more than a foot of lake effect lake effect snows in the lees of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and Lake Michigan. Bennetts Bridge, in Oswego County, New York, got a truly prodigious dumping from a Lake Ontario snow band--32" of snow in the 24 hours ending at 7 am Tuesday. As of 9 am EST Wednesday, here were the top snow amounts so far from this lake effect snow event:

38" Fulton, NY
36.5" Phoenix, NY (7 miles NNE)
32" Bennetts Bridge, NY
24.8" Lacona, NY
24.8" Ripley, NY
19" Pulaski, NY
18" Sterling, NY
18" Camden, NY
13" Perrysburg, NY
12" Sinclairville, NY
12" Collins, NY

Snow on the ground:
14.5" Kirtland, OH
13.5" Montville, OH
16" Fairview, PA
16" Franklin Center, PA
13" Erie, PA (6 miles SW of town)

According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, some world-record point snowfalls from the Great Lakes region include:

7” in 30 minutes at West Seneca, NY on Dec. 2, 2010
12” in 1 hour at Copenhagen, New York on Dec. 2, 1966
17.5” in 2 hours at Oswego, New York on Jan. 26, 1972
22” in 3 hours at Valparaiso, Indiana on Dec. 18, 1981
51” in 16 hours at Bennetts Bridge, New York on Jan. 17-18, 1959
77” in 24 hours at Montague Township on the Tug Hill Plateau of New York on Jan. 11-12, 1997

Although the current Arctic air outbreak is severe, it has broken very few cold temperature records. No airport weather stations east of the Rockies set minimum low temperature records for the date on either Monday or Tuesday, though a number of stations did set their record for the coldest maximum temperature for the date Tuesday. These stations included Marquette, MI (-3°) , Flint, MI (10°), Muskegon, MI (10°), Dayton, OH (15°), and South Bend, IN (9°). The place to be Tuesday was the Southwest U.S., where Phoenix (81°), Tucson (81°), and San Diego (80°) all set record highs for the date.

Heavy lake effect snows are increased by warm waters, lack of ice
This week's exceptional lake effect snows were substantially increased by near-record warm Great Lakes water temperatures. These conditions were caused by the fact that 2012 was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures averaged over Lake Ontario are currently about 3°F above average, and range from 2 - 3°F warmer than average over Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, and Lake Huron. Lake Erie, which is shallow and heats up and cools down relatively quickly, is only about 0.2°F above average. Warm air holds more water vapor, and the largest lake effect snow storms tend to occur early in November and December when the lakes are at their warmest, and there is more moisture available to make heavy snow. If the lakes are frozen, they generate very little in the way of lake effect snow, since little moisture can escape upwards from the ice. At the beginning of this week, ice cover on the Great Lakes was below average, which helped generate a larger lake effect snow event than usual for January. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The biggest loser of ice during the 1973 - 2010 time period was Lake Ontario, which saw an 88% decline in ice cover. During the same time period, Superior lost 79% of its ice, Michigan lost 77%, Huron lost 62%, and Erie lost 50%. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lake increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie showed almost no warming. The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also largely responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice in summer. The loss of Great Lakes ice has allowed much more water to evaporate in winter, resulting in lower lake levels. As I blogged about last week, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron were at their lowest December water levels on record, and are predicted to set an all-time low by March.



Figure 2. Current Great Lakes ice coverage on January 23, 2013 (top) compared to the average Great Lakes ice coverage during 1973 - 2002 for the January 22 - 28 time period (bottom). This year's near-record warm water temperatures led to below-average ice coverage on the lakes until mid-January, but this week's cold blast has helped them catch up to near-normal ice cover. Image credit: Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL).

Links
Andrew Freedman of Climate Central has an excellent post on how this week's cold blast was triggered by a warming of the stratosphere that began in early January.

Wunderground's Lee Grenci has detailed description on how these Sudden Stratospheric Warming events occur.

My post last week, Drought predicted to continue though April; record low Lake Michigan water levels.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Jeff Masters

-8 F sunrise sundog (CythiaSue)
clear and cold makes for a sunrise sundog over the Mississippi River, St. Paul, MN
-8 F sunrise sundog
Snow Squall Offshore (Kennebunker)
It was amazing to watch the rapid shifts and changes in the storm clouds as they scudded across the incoming tide at sunset this evening.
Snow Squall Offshore
A VERY COLD SUNRISE (Ralfo)
this morning! It was 8 degrees and the coldest this year.
A VERY COLD SUNRISE

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278. Jedkins01
6:42 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting 47n91w:


They happen over western Lake Superior occassionally too. I think the narrow topography helps the circular flow, a bit like the BoC can help fire up cyclonic flow more quickly. The most recent one that I found was around December 10, 2012:

"Interestingly...a relatively strong meso-vortice (relatively small area of circulation) formed in the general flow over the tip of Lake Superior, creating an area of heavy snow just along the north shore from Two Harbors to Silver Bay. The snow out of this atmospheric disturbance was falling at one inch per hour at one point."

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dlh/?n=dec_8_to_9_2012_sn ow



Interesting. I've always been fascinated by local/mesoscale weather events that often go unnoticed by computer models and large scale analysis of a region. I'm not from the Great Lakes region so I don't know much about meso lows over the great lakes. I frequently study local mesoscale influences here in Florida though.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8851
277. Thrawst
4:46 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
CAPE soundings from the 06z show at least 1000 kJ CAPE for Arkansas on Tuesday. This could be quite a severe day!
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1914
276. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:27 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
275. PedleyCA
4:26 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 33 min 8 sec ago
Clear
-5 °F
Clear
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: -9 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.67 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: .10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1621 ft

Well, at least there is no wind!!!!
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6723
274. hydrus
4:23 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Mid TN advisories.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24522
273. PedleyCA
4:22 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
52°F

11°C

Humidity95%
Wind SpeedNA
Barometer30.14 in
Dewpoint51°F (11°C)
VisibilityNA

Last Update on 24 Jan 6:49 am PST

Current conditions at

Jurupa Valley (SDJUR)

Lat: 33.987 Lon: -117.425 Elev: 795ft.

This station is up the Hill from me about a mile.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6723
272. hydrus
4:19 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST THU JAN 24 2013

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AROUND TUE/D6 AND POSSIBLY INTO WED/D7.

INSPECTION OF THE ECMWF...GFS...CMC...UKMET AND VARIOUS MREF MEMBERS
REVEALS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH ABOUT
108 HOURS OR VALID MON/D5 AT 12Z. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES EXIST FURTHER
OUT...THEY ARE MOSTLY IN RELATION TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
LIKELY SEVERE THREAT.

A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY ON SUN/D4...WITH A SUBTLE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SELY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON/D5. AS SUCH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS FAR
N AS DALLAS.

SINCE THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE IN QUESTION...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE TIMING OF THE WRN TROUGH.
VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS SHOW A LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
PLAINS AROUND TUE/D6 AND WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH D8.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING A LEADING SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY BY TUE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE MORE THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...BUT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CMC AND A FEW MREF
MEMBERS. IN THIS SCENARIO...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW FORMS FROM IA
INTO WI...WHICH WOULD EXPAND THE SEVERE THREAT FARTHER NWD ACROSS
IL. EVEN IF THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SITUATION DEVELOPS...SEVERE WOULD
STILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND NERN TX WHERE LARGER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WOULD BE PRESENT ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS AREA AND EXPANDED NWD AND EWD SLIGHTLY FOR
TUE/D6.

FOR WED/D7...WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER LAGGING THE MAIN
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...IT DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO EJECT EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOW MS
VALLEY ON WED/D7...THEN CONTINUING TOWARD THE E COAST ON D8. THE
MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FOR A MORE MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING INTO WED/D7 WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN STATES. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY FOR D7
AND D8 IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

..JEWELL.. 01/24/2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24522
271. ILwthrfan
4:19 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1674
270. hydrus
4:13 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
This shows the next storm with the severe weather potential off the Southern California coast..There will be a lot of energy thrown around by this one.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24522
269. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:09 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting JNCali:
kale juice on this end.... Happy Thursday all!


payday for me and many !!!!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
268. wxmod
4:06 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting Skyepony:
NASA did a write up on the Ship Trails event in the NE Pacific last week.

I wunder how it's affecting the PDO..


As always, NASA is not telling us why ship tracks only happen near the US coast in the Pacific Ocean. It seems noone wants to research the issue. (why? because they are wx mod for the benefit of south west desert water users)
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
267. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:01 PM GMT on January 24, 2013


Next one is Khan... maybe for this Friday's storm
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
266. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:00 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Say it one more time. :P


He wanted attention...lol
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
265. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:00 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Another very cold morning with subzero wind chills
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
264. PedleyCA
4:00 PM GMT on January 24, 2013


Barely sprinkling here.

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 38 sec ago
Overcast
54 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 86%
Dew Point: 50 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.14 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 5.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Overcast 3700 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6723
263. wxmod
3:53 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
More rain for the bone dry south west; due to the jet stream diving south a thousand miles from it's classic position then snapping due north.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
262. Slamguitar
3:45 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Good morning everyone!

After days upon days of straight lake-effect snow and clouds I finally woke up to a crisp, sunny day in the mitten.

Have a fantastic Thursday everybody!
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
261. hydrus
3:45 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE EXTENDED MODELS
HAVE ADVERTISED QUITE A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
HAVE SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR IT IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE
JET STRUCTURE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD PLACEMENT NEAR THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR A GOOD 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE/LIFT...AND GOOD VEERING
VERTICAL PROFILES. AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY THING HOLDING ME BACK
FROM ADDING IT TO THE HWO IS SHORT TERM WEATHER AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE OVERALL
OUTCOME
. STAY TUNED.



GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS/STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MORE THAN
REASONABLE/REGARDLESS OF HOW THE DETAILS UNFOLD. WILL ADD A GENERAL
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT TO THIS MORNINGS HWO FOR THE MID WEEK
TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. /BK/

EXTENDED PERIOD...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO THE AREA...WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE.
_________________________________________

TEMPS OF 60-70+f RETURN. It's like it's spring already
GFS does not have this system going negative, but that does not mean it will not happen..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24522
260. GeorgiaStormz
3:40 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting TomballTXPride:





Awesome Post, GA Stormz!! Needed a break from Ricky's.

:)






If you need a break, just don't go there.
You went there in the first place.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
259. GeorgiaStormz
3:39 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
256 If nothing changes, it's looking like Tuesday will already be at least a moderate risk day. The setup looks favorable for a decent tornado outbreak across Arkansas mainly. Still a lot of time for things to change.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
257 If nothing changes, it's looking like Tuesday will already be at least a moderate risk day. The setup looks favorable for a decent tornado outbreak across Arkansas mainly. Still a lot of time for things to change.


Say it one more time. :P
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
257. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:37 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Apparently my phone wanted to let you know what I said twice.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34079
256. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:32 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
If nothing changes, it's looking like Tuesday will already be at least a moderate risk day. The setup looks favorable for a decent tornado outbreak across Arkansas mainly. Still a lot of time for things to change.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34079
255. GeorgiaStormz
3:31 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
cool:


Look at houston, SE Missippi, and NE Colorado:


South MS, N AL, and OK/TX:


Central Ga has a lot or right moving supercells that just don't produce many tornadoes. The Carolinas are have many right moving supercells as well, but tornado alley is the true hotspot on this map:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
254. 1900hurricane
3:19 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE EXTENDED MODELS
HAVE ADVERTISED QUITE A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
HAVE SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR IT IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE
JET STRUCTURE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD PLACEMENT NEAR THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR A GOOD 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE/LIFT...AND GOOD VEERING
VERTICAL PROFILES. AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY THING HOLDING ME BACK
FROM ADDING IT TO THE HWO IS SHORT TERM WEATHER AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE OVERALL
OUTCOME
. STAY TUNED.



GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS/STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MORE THAN
REASONABLE/REGARDLESS OF HOW THE DETAILS UNFOLD. WILL ADD A GENERAL
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT TO THIS MORNINGS HWO FOR THE MID WEEK
TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. /BK/

EXTENDED PERIOD...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO THE AREA...WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE.
_________________________________________

TEMPS OF 60-70 f RETURN. It's like it's spring already

Look at the extreme temperature difference forecasted between Manitoba and Tamaulipas. It could be an over 120*F difference between the two locations!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11906
253. GeorgiaStormz
3:18 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
The GFS is already showing up to 1500 j/kg CAPE 6 days out.
With a spring like airmass, I think we'll have something somewhere.

The GFS, which has the most dangerous outlook, is the outlier though.
The others still give a severe wx possibility though.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
252. PedleyCA
3:14 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Got quiet there! 45 minutes of nothing! Must be Breakfast time on the East Coast.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6723
251. 1900hurricane
3:14 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
00Z ECMWF @ 60 hours: who wants to count isobars?



It appears that the lowest closed one for this is 925 mb.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11906
250. GeorgiaStormz
3:13 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE EXTENDED MODELS
HAVE ADVERTISED QUITE A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
HAVE SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR IT IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE
JET STRUCTURE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD PLACEMENT NEAR THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR A GOOD 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE/LIFT...AND GOOD VEERING
VERTICAL PROFILES. AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY THING HOLDING ME BACK
FROM ADDING IT TO THE HWO IS SHORT TERM WEATHER AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE OVERALL
OUTCOME
. STAY TUNED.



GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS/STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MORE THAN
REASONABLE/REGARDLESS OF HOW THE DETAILS UNFOLD. WILL ADD A GENERAL
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT TO THIS MORNINGS HWO FOR THE MID WEEK
TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. /BK/

EXTENDED PERIOD...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO THE AREA...WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE.
_________________________________________

TEMPS OF 60-70+f RETURN. It's like it's spring already
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
249. PedleyCA
3:11 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
244. PressureDrop

Cool Icon. Glad I don't have to remove any snow.....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6723
248. ncstorm
2:33 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
I would not be surprise if we lose power here today..the wind is really gusty!

ANZ086-242100-
HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR OUT TO 34N 71W TO 32N 73W.
1000 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...GALE WARNING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...W TO SW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO NW 30
TO 40 KT...EXCEPT E OF 73W TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT BUILDING TO
7 TO 12 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W TO 12 TO 18 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS E. A CHANCE OF RAIN NE PORTION.
.TONIGHT...N TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT EARLY...DIMINISHING TO NE
10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 8 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W
8 TO 15 FT LATE...HIGHEST NE.
.FRI...E TO NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...BECOMING S TO SW AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE...HIGHEST W. SEAS BECOMING 5 TO 9
FT THROUGHOUT LATE. RAIN DEVELOPING NW PORTION.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT...THEN BECOMING
W TO NW. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W 10 TO 13
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS BECOMING 6 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W 10 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST
NE.
.SUN...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W 5 TO 8 FT LATE...
HIGHEST E.
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO SW AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BECOMING 3 TO 5 FT THROUGHOUT.
$$

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16569
247. FunnelVortex
2:32 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Gulf Stream:
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2905
246. FunnelVortex
2:17 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2905
245. FLwolverine
2:14 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
191. TropicalAnalystwx13
196. 1900hurricane

Terrific graphics - they look like paintings. If the storm develops like this , I vote that we name it Vincent.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2599
244. PressureDrop
2:05 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
I removed close to 5" of snow this morning from my car down here in southern MD. They're calling for another 3"+ between now and Saturday morning.

Yeah!
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
243. AussieStorm
2:00 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning Mr. Largo, Tom, and everyone else I can't see... :)

Evening Aussie, I hope all is well down under mate.

Still got flooding a plenty from Ex-TC Oswald up in North and Central Queensland and bushfires down in Victoria. NSW also has bushfires but not as many as we've had some good rains this past week.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16014
242. VR46L
1:59 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
looks like days and days of Gales for me sigh


Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7089
241. FtMyersgal
1:53 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting Birthmark:

OMG! It's completely flooded!


LMAO
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
240. LargoFl
1:46 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
be careful today michigan.............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
630 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE OFF LAKE HURON...

.NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG LAKE EFFECT BANDS ALONG PARTS OF THE THUMB THIS
MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR
WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON.
WEAKER LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL BRING LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL FURTHER
NORTH FROM THAT. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 48656
239. LargoFl
1:44 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
NYC..........ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY. SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
SHOULD THEN BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 48656
238. LargoFl
1:43 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Chicago's snow drought of 1" or less may end today. This snow band is orientating rather quickly NE to SW could dump a good 1-3" with some spots near 4".



Some very heavy returns showing up...+ 30 dbz.
nice radar pic there..you folks just might get 3 inches of snow
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 48656
237. ILwthrfan
1:42 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Chicago's snow drought of 1" or less may end today. This snow band is orientating rather quickly NE to SW could dump a good 1-3" with some spots near 4".



Some very heavy returns showing up...+ 30 dbz.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1674
236. LargoFl
1:40 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
yeah NC, friday and saturday be careful driving might be ice on the roadways..nothing going on by me,getting warmer each day now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 48656
235. ncstorm
1:35 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah and more coming friday and saturday for her..


It looks like my area will be a wait and see scenario..right now it looks like rain once again..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16569
234. LargoFl
1:34 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
513 AM CST THU JAN 24 2013

...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EXPECTED IN THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD A COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE...WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP
WILL BE WARMING. THIS WILL PRODUCE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORMATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND WILL
GRADUALLY WARM LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CHANGE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. HOWEVER, THE PERIOD OF TIME WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FREEZING...WILL BE THE TIME WHEN ICE ACCUMULATION
ON TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE LIKELY...AND GLAZING OF ROADS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE THE LONGEST
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AND...AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE
LARGER ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 48656
233. LargoFl
1:33 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Quoting ncstorm:
Where is Wash??..a friend of mine posted a pic on her facebook showing snow for DC..enough to make a snowman..
yeah and more coming friday and saturday for her..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 48656
232. ncstorm
1:31 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Where is Wash??..a friend of mine posted a pic on her facebook showing snow near DC..enough to make a snowman..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16569
231. LargoFl
1:27 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
looks like friday-saturday is the winter storm story even into the south..................URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 AM CST THU JAN 24 2013

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY...

.LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
OVERRUNS A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TO NEAR FREEZING FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS WILL ALSO BE A
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION EVENT AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY
AROUND 10 AM.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 48656
230. LargoFl
1:24 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
GFS at 48 hours another big storm................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 48656
229. LargoFl
1:22 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
437 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

DEZ003-004-MDZ019-020-241500-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130124T1500Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...EASTON...
DENTON
437 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CAROLINE AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MARYLAND AND
SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING
THROUGH ABOUT 800 AM.

* IMPACTS...BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY. ROADS AND WALKWAYS
WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 48656

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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