Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Drought predicted to continue though April; record low Lake Michigan water levels

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:14 PM GMT on January 18, 2013

+39

Rain and snow from the a series of winter storms that have swept across the nation so far in 2013 have put only a slight dent in the Great Drought of 2012 - 2013, and the drought is likely to extend at least until late April, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report and NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook, issued Thursday. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought began 2013 at 61%, and is almost unchanged as of January 15, at 59%. According to NOAA's monthly State of the Drought report, the drought peaked during July 2012, when 61.8% of the contiguous U.S. was covered by moderate or greater drought. This made the 2012 drought the greatest U.S. drought since the Dust Bowl year of 1939, when 62.1% of the U.S. was in drought. The 2013 drought will maintain its grip over the U.S. into February, according to the latest 15-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model, which predicts a much below-average chance of precipitation across the large majority of the drought region during the next two weeks. These dry conditions will continue to cause problems for shipping on the Mississippi River, where barge traffic has been limited by near-record low water. However, the river level at St. Louis has risen about a foot since the beginning of the year, and the Army Corps of Engineers blasted away rock formations on the river bottom near Thebes, Illinois over the past two weeks, which should allow limited barge traffic to continue on the river at least through the end of January. The Corps now believes that will be able to keep shipping on the Mississippi River open into the summer. The latest NOAA river level forecast calls for the river to fall below -5' by January 30, which would be one of the five lowest water levels on record for St. Louis.

Figure 1. Predicted 7-day precipitation for the period ending on Friday, January 25. Less than 10% of the U.S. drought regions are predicted to receive as much as 0.5" of precipitation (dark green color.) Image credit: NOAA.

Figure 2. NOAA's January 17 Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to persist over at least 70% of the U.S. drought area through the end of April. The drought is expected to ease some along its northern and eastern edges, but new areas of drought are predicted to develop over Texas, California, and the Southeast U.S.

Figure 3. The latest NOAA river level forecast calls for the Mississippi River to fall below -5' by January 30. The river's lowest level on record, -6.2', occurred in January 1940, after the great Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s.

Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time record low water levels for January
Low water is also a problem on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. After setting an all-time record low for the month of December, water levels have continued to fall, are are now 1" below the record-lowest January water level, observed in January 1965, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. Water levels on Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, and Lake Superior are predicted to fall 1 - 2" over the next month, due to below average precipitation. Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are already at 576.0', so if this forecast verifies, they will set the record for their all-time monthly level, the 576.05' level of March 1964. Lake Superior is still 6" above its all-time low water level, so will not set a new record. Below average ice cover, which allows increased evaporation, is contributing to the low water levels. The low ice cover is due to the record warm year of 2012, which has left the lakes 2 - 3°C above average in temperature, as of January 8. Barges on the lakes are being forced to carry reduced loads due to the low water. Great Lakes water level data goes back to 1918.

Figure 4. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time December monthly low during December 2012, beating the record set in 1964. The predicted water levels for January - March call for record lows all three months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.

Long-term drought outlook
NOAA's January 17 Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to persist over at least 70% of the U.S. drought area through the end of April. The drought is expected to ease some along its northern and eastern edges, but new areas of drought are predicted to develop over Texas, California, and the Southeast U.S. I don't see any signs of a shift in the fundamental large-scale atmospheric flow patterns coming, and it is good bet that drought will be a huge concern as we enter spring. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts an increased chance of drier than average conditions over southwestern portions of the drought region during the coming three months. In general, droughts are more likely in the Midwest U.S. when warmer than average ocean temperatures prevail in the tropical Atlantic, with cooler than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific (La Niña-like conditions.) This is what we had in during most of 2012, and continue to have in 2013. In fact, the equatorial tropical Pacific has cooled in recent weeks to 0.6°C below average (as of January 14). This is similar to the ocean temperatures seen in the spring of 2012, just before the Great Drought of 2012 began. Most of the U.S. drought region needs 3 - 9" of precipitation to pull out of drought.

Drought links:
My post on Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger discussed how drought is our greatest threat from climate change.

Ricky Rood blogs about the Dust Bowl

Wunderground weather news
Wunderground's Angela Fritz has put together a weather news feature that provides a selection of recent media articles on major global weather events. For example, Sydney, Australia's biggest city, set it's all-time heat record today, with the temperature peaking at 45.8 degrees Celsius (114.4 Fahrenheit). The old record, of 45.3 C (113.5 Fahrenheit), was set in January 1939. Also, heavy snow hit Britain today, and a dock from Japan showed up on the coast of Washington.

Featured blogger Lee Grenci has a new post today on the incredibly intense 932 mb low that affected the Aleutian Islands yesterday.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Old Mission (nmcbill)

Low water level at Old Mission Lighthouse. View taken from Lighthouse. In 1986 the water level was at the green area just in front of the sunbathers. On 45th. parallel 18 miles north of Traverse City, Michigan on the tip of Old Mission Peninsula.

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651. LargoFl 2:39 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22397

652. LargoFl 2:41 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22397

653. LargoFl 2:42 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH...AND BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE-HALF MILE. MELTING FROM ANY SNOW SHOWER COULD QUICKLY ICE OVER AS ARCTIC AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22397

654. LargoFl 2:44 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
snow spreading into the northeast............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 411 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPS BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES AT TIMES TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY MORNING... MAZ005-013-017-020-RIZ001>008-211715- /O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0003.130121T2100Z-130122T1500Z/ CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...FOXBORO... NORWOOD...TAUNTON...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...FOSTER... SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL... NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND 411 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A NARROW SWATH OF 3 TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY TONIGHT AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POOR AT TIMES. THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR MAY BE IMPACTED. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22397

655. MAweatherboy1 2:45 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Good morning. Wind chills are as low as 50 below zero in northern MN and ND this morning, that's dangerous stuff. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6289

656. PalmBeachWeather 2:46 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting PalmBeachWeather: FYI.... Both of the Harbaugh brothers grew up in my hometown of Xenia Ohio... Their father Jack was football coach at Xenia High school... They lived the next street over from me... My cousin ML babysat both of them when they were young boys.... Dad Jack was coach way back in 1966.... Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3083

657. LargoFl 2:47 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOWFALL FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22397

659. LargoFl 2:49 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
BIG SNOWSTORM HERE....URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013 OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-212245- /O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130123T1200Z/ /O.CON.KCLE.WC.Y.0001.130122T0300Z-130122T1600Z/ CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE- NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON... JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVIL LE 944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY... * ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE SLOW AND HAZARDOUS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE ROAD CONDITIONS. * TEMPERATURES...4 TO 20 ABOVE. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22397

660. LargoFl 2:51 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22397

661. wxchaser97 2:53 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Good morning everyone, I have been getting off and on lake effect snow bands this morning giving me minor accumulations. This is to be expected for the next few days. Just heard from my cousin in Minneapolis, a wind chills of -30F is not good. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 346 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-08 3-220915- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWAS SEE-GENESEE-LAPEER- ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LE NAWEE-MONROE- 346 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN M-59 AND I-94 CORRIDORS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 ABOVE...LEADING TO WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WIND CHILLS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO...AS HIGHS ONLY REACH AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. LATER THIS WEEK...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. $$ Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6739

662. PalmBeachWeather 3:08 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting TomballTXPride: Thanks for the nugget, PBW. Was not aware of the brothers growing up there. That's pretty cool. Weren't you the one that survived the infamous Xenia, Ohio F5 tornado back in 1974?? You were a little girl then just getting out of school, right?? That must have been an absolute fright. Something you'll remember forever, I'm sure. Good morning, by the way. Great to see you blogging! Tomball......Worse day of my life.... Lost a few friends also Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3083

664. HadesGodWyvern 3:11 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Fiji Meteorological Services Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8 TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY ONE (09F) 0:00 AM FST January 22 2013 ====================================== STORM WATCH FOR AMERICAN SAMOA GALE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (995 hPa) located near 11.9S 171.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 11 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared and peripheral surface reports. Gale Force Winds ================ 100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant 80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant 50 NM from the center in southern semi-circle Overall organization remains good. Deep convection persistent near low level circulation center past 6 hours. Primary band trying to wrap around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Outflow good in the eastern semicircle of system. Garry is being steered eastwards by westerly deep layer mean wind. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap on LOG10 spiral, giving DT=3.0, MET=3.0, and PT=3.0. Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS Global models have picked up the system and move it eastwards with further intensification. Forecast and Intensity ===================== 12 HRS: 12.0S 170.3W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone) 24 HRS: 12.2S 169.1W - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone) 48 HRS: 12.6S 167.3W - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone) Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36682

665. HadesGodWyvern 3:11 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Reunion RSMC Tropical Cyclone Outlook 16:00 PM RET January 21 2013 =================================== Over southern Africa, an inland low has evolved for several days by generating heavy rainfalls over widespread areas: Botswana, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa (130 mm reported at 00z over the last 12 hours at Thohoyandou, South Africa) and southwestern Mozambique. Surface obs and visible satellite imagery allow to locate at 1000Z a low estimated at 1003 hPa near 23.8S 33.8E moving east southeastward at 15 knots. The minimum should reach waters of the Mozambique channel tonight. Convective activity is strong inland over the low, but oversea also in the south-eastern semi-circle of the system. Upper level divergence is very good poleward near the Subtropical Jet and cold air exists within high level in the southwestern part of the system. This environment is favorable for deep convection. Conditions should be rather favorable from tomorrow, but especially from Wednesday for evolution to a tropical system, but it is difficult to forecast its intensity (sufficient sea surface temperature, very good divergence, but poor supply on poleward edge.) Last runs of available numerical weather prediction models forecast a crossing from west to east over the Mozambique Channel between Tuesday and Saturday, but they do not deepen very significantly the system. However, this system should generate very disturbed weather on the South of the Mozambique Channel and on the Southwestern part of Madagascar. For the next 24 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression is weak. Beyond, potential becomes fair to good Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36682

666. HadesGodWyvern 3:12 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Advice #3 TROPICAL LOW 08U 8:46 PM WST January 21 2013 =========================================== At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1002 hPa) located at 18.8S 121.4E or 130 km southwest of Broome and 340 km east northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots. Dvorak Intensity: T1.0 The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday as it moves to the west southwest off the Pilbara coastline. Gales are not expected in coastal areas during Tuesday, but if the system does reach cyclone intensity then gales with wind gusts to 55 knots could develop between Pardoo and Dampier on Wednesday morning possibly extending west to Onslow later in the day. Tropical Cyclone Watch ======================= A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Pardoo to Onslow, including Port Hedland and Karratha. Forecast and Intensity ========================== 12 HRS: 19.0S 120.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low) 24 HRS: 19.4S 119.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) 48 HRS: 20.1S 117.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone) 72 HRS: 20.2S 115.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone) Additional Information ======================= Good outflow/divergence aloft and weak vertical shear is helping convection slowly focus near the centre of the weak low level circulation. The concentration of convection has improved compared with the same time yesterday despite weak synoptic scale low level convergence and competing convection in the heat trough over land during the diurnal peak. However there are no significant pressure falls occurring in the vicinity and the surface circulation remains weak and poorly defined, as evidenced by the earlier [0318Z] Oceansat pass. In favour for development is the fact that the circulation is already developed in the low to mid-levels,is experiencing only low to moderate wind shear, will mover over waters of high ocean heat content [SST>31C], and the flow is anticyclonic in the upper levels. Despite this, most models don't suggest intensification to cyclone strength without broadscale low level forcing. Much will depend upon whether convection continues to focus near the low level circulation center overnight. If this eventuates, a faster than typical development rate of a small system is expected. Numerical weather prediction models generally has lower skill in such a scenario and hence the precautionary warnings. Forecast motion is to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the coast under the influence of a weak mid-level ridge. Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36682

667. HadesGodWyvern 3:12 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Advice #12 TROPICAL CYCLONE OSWALD, CATEGORY ONE (07U) 10:57 PM EST January 21 2013 =========================================== At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Oswald (992 hPa) located at 15.4S 141.4E or 35 km west northwest of Kowanyama and 60 km south southwest of Pormpuraaw has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 6 knots. Gale Force Winds ================= 60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant 30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant 60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant 90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/6 HRS Tropical Cyclone Oswald, a category 1 cyclone, remains in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria. Tropical Cyclone Oswald is expected to move north to northeast near the coast and remain a category 1 cyclone before crossing the coast between Aurukun and Kowanyama early on Tuesday. Gales with gusts to 50 knots are occurring on the coast around Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw, and are expected to extend northward towards Aurukun as the cyclone approaches. Monsoonal gusts are expected to affect coastal areas north of the cyclone to Cape York. Heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding is likely in areas between Karumba and Cape York for the remainder of today and will persist into Tuesday. As the cyclone crosses the coast, a storm tide is expected in coastal areas between about Kowanyama and Weipa. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas that may possibly be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors. Tides are also expected to abnormally high, exceeding the highest tide of the year, about all remaining parts of the west coast of Cape York Peninsula during Tuesday's high tide. Tropical Cyclone Warning ======================= A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Karumba to Cape York Forecast and Intensity ======================= 12 HRS: 14.1S 141.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone) 24 HRS: 13.9S 143.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low) 48 HRS: 15.8S 143.2E - 20 knots (Tropical Low) 72 HRS: 17.3S 142.4E - 20 knots (Tropical Low) Additional Information ======================== Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.5 degree wrap on a log 10 spiral. DT is 2.5. MET not used as the system was over land 24 hours ago. FT based on DT. FT held at 3.0 due to constraints. North to northeast movement is expected to continue until landfall. Numerical guidance moves the system to the north or north northeast over the next 12 hours, keeping the tropical cyclone near the coast, with the potential to cross over to land at any time in the next 12 hours. Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36682

668. Jedkins01 3:19 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: It was smart to word it "the day it snowed in Miami" because it may never happen again in our lifetime. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

669. charlottefl 3:23 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting Jedkins01: It was smart to word it "the day it snowed in Miami" because it may never happen again in our lifetime. I've seen it snow here in SWFL once, (flurries). It was still cool though. Christmas Eve 1989. It got to 25 that night... Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

670. Jedkins01 3:33 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting charlottefl: I've seen it snow here in SWFL once, (flurries). It was still cool though. Christmas Eve 1989. It got to 25 that night... Yeah apparently we also had some snow in the Tampa Bay area that same Christmas eve along with a low of 21 on Christmas morning, 2 degrees above the all time coldest day back home in my area of 19. I couldn't imagine 19 for a low in Pinellas, or 21, lol. Of course I didn't live here back then, nor was I alive yet for that matter either :) BTW, if you're excited for cold next weekend, don't get your hopes up too much, the ecmwf is backing off quite a bit recently from its big cold blast, and it doesn't have any support from the other models on that either, the other models only show highs 69 to 73 behind the front with low 50's for lows, near normal at best. I'm really not all that surprised the computer models are backing off from advertising significant cold yet again. That's happened all winter. In fact it just happened with the recent approaching front. The models had this upcoming front bringing a freeze into most of Florida with high's low to mid 50's at a week out, now its just very little cold air, no more than we often see behind a front n October. In fact, we actually had more impressive cold out breaks earlier in the Fall this year than we have had in the winter so far. Now that is just weird. I'm thinking the Tampa Bay area is approaching at least the top 10 January's ever. Probably your area too. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

671. GeoffreyWPB 3:41 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
From our local paper... Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

672. GeorgiaStormz 3:45 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
aaaack my team choked sunny days. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

673. Jedkins01 3:47 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: aaaack my team choked sunny days. Should you be that surprised? They are masters of choking. They are a great team, but sadly they don't know how to get it done. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

674. GeorgiaStormz 3:51 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting Jedkins01: Should you be that surprised? They are masters of choking. They are a great team, but sadly they don't know how to get it done. don't rub it in :'( 0 second half points......oh well back to wx where not much is going on. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

675. Jedkins01 3:51 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: don't rub it in :'( 0 second half points......oh well back to wx where not much is going on. haha sorry man Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

676. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:02 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
My NWS posted a picture of a newspaper from January 22, 1985. Temperatures never made it above 5F in Wilmington. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25124

677. charlottefl 4:03 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting Jedkins01: Yeah apparently we also had some snow in the Tampa Bay area that same Christmas eve along with a low of 21 on Christmas morning, 2 degrees above the all time coldest day back home in my area of 19. I couldn't imagine 19 for a low in Pinellas, or 21, lol. Of course I didn't live here back then, nor was I alive yet for that matter either :) BTW, if you're excited for cold next weekend, don't get your hopes up too much, the ecmwf is backing off quite a bit recently from its big cold blast, and it doesn't have any support from the other models on that either, the other models only show highs 69 to 73 behind the front with low 50's for lows, near normal at best. I'm really not all that surprised the computer models are backing off from advertising significant cold yet again. That's happened all winter. In fact it just happened with the recent approaching front. The models had this upcoming front bringing a freeze into most of Florida with high's low to mid 50's at a week out, now its just very little cold air, no more than we often see behind a front n October. In fact, we actually had more impressive cold out breaks earlier in the Fall this year than we have had in the winter so far. Now that is just weird. I'm thinking the Tampa Bay area is approaching at least the top 10 January's ever. Probably your area too. Yeah I was only 7 at the time, but I remember it very vividly. That and the year before were both very cold winters. Starting to wonder if we're actually gonna see any really cold weather this winter at all.. Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

678. GeoffreyWPB 4:09 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Pretty nice temps for West Palm Beach this week. Models still having a hard time figuring out if the really cold weather will make it down this far for the weekend... Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

679. LargoFl 4:16 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22397

680. LargoFl 4:17 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22397

681. stratcat 4:19 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Dr. Masters, in hydrology, how do they measure for drought, and how is it defined? What areas of the country as of 1/21/13 are in a drought situation? Member Since: May 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15

682. PedleyCA 4:20 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: aaaack my team choked sunny days. Mine too. Sometimes it just takes time. Sometimes you just run up against reality. Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2130

683. Minnemike 4:21 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: From our local paper... do you Want my local forecast??? suck it UP flori's Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1253

684. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:21 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
The ensemble mean forecasts of the AO show a big jump in values over the next few days followed by a big plunge for the first of February once again. Coincides pretty well for a warm up the end of this week and then another arctic outbreak by the end of January/into February. Not perfect though. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25124

685. PedleyCA 4:26 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: My NWS posted a picture of a newspaper from January 22, 1985. Temperatures never made it above 5F in Wilmington. What is going on with that Fire Hydrant? Looks like it is on fire at the base. Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2130

686. txjac 4:32 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting LargoFl: BIG SNOWSTORM HERE....URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013 OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-212245- /O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130123T1200Z/ /O.CON.KCLE.WC.Y.0001.130122T0300Z-130122T1600Z/ CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE- NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON... JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVIL LE 944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY... * ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE SLOW AND HAZARDOUS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE ROAD CONDITIONS. * TEMPERATURES...4 TO 20 ABOVE. Wow! That's a LOT of snow! My little brother will not be happy ...lol. Too much shoveling Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563

687. PedleyCA 4:37 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Hey, Keep see ya got +19 This is my Sisters Place Rhinelander-Oneida County Airport (KRHI) Lat: 45.63 Lon: -89.47 Elev: 1663ft. Overcast -12°F -24°C Humidity57% Wind SpeedW 12 G 18 mph Barometer30.04 in (1022.7 mb) Dewpoint-23°F (-31°C) Visibility7.00 mi Wind Chill-33°F (-36°C) Last Update on 21 Jan 9:53 am CST Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2130

688. Skyepony (Mod) 4:41 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
94S Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29234

689. trHUrrIXC5MMX 4:44 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting LargoFl: BIG SNOWSTORM HERE....URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013 OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-212245- /O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130123T1200Z/ /O.CON.KCLE.WC.Y.0001.130122T0300Z-130122T1600Z/ CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE- NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON... JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVIL LE 944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY... * ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE SLOW AND HAZARDOUS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE ROAD CONDITIONS. * TEMPERATURES...4 TO 20 ABOVE. whoooo... I want that here Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7872

690. dabirds 4:46 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
It's cold in C IL this a.m. and they've dropped tomorrow's low to 5 - almost as cold as the Wings were in StL Sat. night 97 (sorry couldn't resist) Also, a RIP to one of the greatest gentlemen to ever grace this planet, Stan "The Man" Musial. Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 482

691. AtHomeInTX 4:46 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: aaaack my team choked sunny days. Sigh...Been there... Nice and sunny today here too. Lol Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3871

692. Gatorstorm 4:52 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Why put any credence into the drought monitor for the next few months? A few months ago they were calling for above normal precipiation in the southeast. Kinda tired of long-range predictions, waste. Member Since: June 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

693. GeorgiaStormz 4:57 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Our next hope of a system is at least a week or more away: Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

694. RitaEvac 5:00 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
I tell you what, the weather here is crazy, just look how crazy the radar is. I'm in the eye of this thing whatever it is, it's sunshining. Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8874

695. RitaEvac 5:02 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8874

696. AtHomeInTX 5:04 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
After all the cold and gloom here, the NWS is starting to sound normal again. :) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT (NOT MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL TRAVEL SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. POST- FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPEDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3871

697. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:05 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
"We will respond to climate change, knowing failure to do so would be a disgrace to the children of future generations." -- President Barack H. Obama Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25124

698. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 5:08 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

699. trHUrrIXC5MMX 5:20 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE 74 ______________________________ Southeast New England Snowstorm Major Lake effect from Lake Erie In Honor to Dr. MLK Jr. click image for larger pic Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7872

700. stratcat 12:42 AM GMT on January 22, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: "We will respond to climate change, knowing failure to do so would be a disgrace to the children of future generations." -- President Barack H. Obama What a pile of garbage. They can't even get short or long range forecasts nailed down yet, and here we have this useless politician trying to play God with our freedoms by wanting to place restrictions on our activity based on false, unproven premise, that man is warming the earth. If Washington would keep quiet, there would be a big drop in CO2 output. Why doesn't anybody have anything to say about China and India and their "disregard" for global warming? Member Since: May 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15

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