TD 27 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 AM GMT on November 14, 2005

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After suffering through the made-for-TV movie "Category 7: End of the World" about meteorologically impossible storms that nearly destroy the world, I came back to the all-too-real world of the Hurricane Season of 2005, which I would have thought was a near impossibility had you told me before the season started what would transpire. Twenty-seven tropical cyclones? Unreal!

Tropical Depression 27 is very unimpressive tonight. Wind shear is still rather high right now, at 10 - 15 knots, and these hostile winds are keeping the area of deep convection around the storm small. The shear may even act to tear the storm apart Monday or Tuesday. TD 27 does have the potential to grow into a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane, if it can survive the next two days and make it into the central Caribbean where the waters will be warmer and the wind shear lighter. I'll be back in the morning with a full analysis.

Jeff Masters

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86. mouseybabe
8:38 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
orion,

you may not see this, as dr masters has added two updates today already...

two quick comments..

first, the government is "outsourcing" all sorts of things to business, not just the weather... i am expecting any day to be told i have to pay for, say, a social security number application because the government will not allow itself to do what business can do, like print forms!

second, as to the drones, nothing surprises me... my cousin lives near white sands, and he says they use drones to patrol the borders... he's seen some interesting things in the sky...

mouse
85. EllistonVA
3:28 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
An ecosystem is a set of checks and balances, within certain limits it can right itself and bring itself back to "normal". Once you go outside of those limits though, you either face it drastically changing in an uncontrolled fashion to a new normal (i.e. Venus where the greenhouse gases took over and now it's hot enough to melt lead on the surface), or it may overcorrect and swing way to far in the opposite direction before it can get back to "normal" as in a warming trend followed by an ice age. Either way, when you step outside those limits of easy self correction, the reaction tends to be rather quick. Not "Day After Tomorrow" quick, but quick in a geological sense.

I should give the standard disclaimer that I used to work for NASA on the EOS team (Earth Observing System) specifically on the global warming issue, so I may be biased. Although I went to work there because they were willing to pay me. My belief in global warming came after seeing the data that was brought in.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
84. palmbeacher
3:22 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
New entry by Dr. Jeff
83. NOLAinNC
3:19 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Last year it snowed on Christmas Day in New Orleans!
82. palmbeacher
3:18 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Snowshoes in South Fl?? HMMMM That would
be different.
81. NOLAinNC
3:18 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
And Orion,
You said it perfectly.
80. NOLAinNC
3:17 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I guess the bottom line is we should all be investing in snowshoe companies LOL.
79. oriondarkwood
3:15 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
NOLAinNC,

I agree. And as far as LpAngelRob comment about Big Business needing protection from Big Brother. Seems to me that lately they are one and the same (ie note how many direct and indirect ties the goverment at all levels has with Big Business, of how much money tax dollars and big biz dollars, which are both our dollars goes to pay the campagin funds and lobbists)..

Any hoot I could go on for a long time. But as a I stated early this is a weather blog. If anyone wants to debate this please email me.
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
78. palmbeacher
3:13 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Our water is still to nasty to enjoy yet.
Hopefully it will clear up soon.
77. MandyFSU
3:11 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Well I was at the beach all weekend with no cable, so I missed both games, but I hear the Florida loss was awe inspiring :-)
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
76. oriondarkwood
3:09 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
LpAngelRob,

I know NWS is not the holy grail nor is competition a bad thing. I am speaking of the goverment allowing private business to take over NWS duties without the NWS having to ability to dispute if said action would be for the public good.

As far as providing services the NWS does not have or can afford to have (again if their budget is cut then they will have no choice but to ceed services to a private business or a non-profit one).

As far as Accu-Weather my disfavor of them stems from lack of a user friend site, fear mongering and "big biz attuide". I will say for the record thier website is better than weather.com. Lastly also for the record I will say I have a personal bias towards wunderground but that is mainly due to it fullfills my weather needs better than other weather based websites.
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
75. palmbeacher
3:09 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Mandy, It was a terrific thing to watch Florida get beat by Spurrier. I am just hoping FSU can end the season without anymore losses. And DEATH to Hurricane Season. I am done. No more. I am not even looking into this new thing out there.
74. MandyFSU
3:07 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I've heard the same thing (50years) My mom said they've found ice cores where the climate has shifted dramatically in as little as 25-30 years... something to think about.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
73. MandyFSU
3:05 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Ugh. Who the heck knows. We're gonna lose to Florida for sure- well, they lost to South Carolina, so I guess truly there's no telling. Somebody needs to be out there running some dang laps till they can get their stuff straight!
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
72. NOLAinNC
3:05 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Elliston, I was thinking the same thing. I saw a NOVA (or some other PBS program) a while back where they talked about global warming preceeding each ice age. They didn't determine cause and effect, but it made me think. They also said the warming period can be as short as 50 years! That's crazy talk.
71. palmbeacher
3:01 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
and Mandy. What the heck has happend to the Noles?
Geez they have just went to crap.
70. palmbeacher
2:59 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hey Mandy, Long time no power! Been back to work and busy
busy. Had a lot of catching up to do!
69. EllistonVA
2:58 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hi all! Haven't been around in a while, thought I'd check in.

I hate to stir up global warming discussions - they get so ugly - but I do think I should note Orion (you know I'm not a flamer, and you're cool so I know you won't take it personally) that we have the technology to look at tens of thousands of years of weather, not 20 or 30. Studies on virgin ice cores from the Andes, Antartica and the arctic, as well as from soil cores around the world can go back through history quite effectively. A single tree can show a few hundred years worth of weather history. We might not be able to tell you the exact temperature on say, October 1st in the year 220 BC, but these tools are quite effective for long term global trends.

Just my two cents worth.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
68. telegon
2:58 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
((Scratching eyes, awaking from disbelief, in pajamas))

You guys still here? 27? If I can get the gunk out of my eyes by later today, maybe it'll all be for naught.. Maybe this thing will tear itself apart.

I blame the GDFL for this...
67. MandyFSU
2:58 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
hi palmbeacher! Long time no talk!
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
66. palmbeacher
2:56 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Good morning. Anyone here?
65. NOLAinNC
2:54 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I think Big Business has plenty of protection from our government these days. I also believe that business makes decisions based almost entirely on profit, not based on truth, justice, accuracy, morality or the well-being of consumers. That is why our drug companies and oil companies are posting record profits while poverty is growing in the country. A free market assumes consumers have choices. If prices are fixed and companies profiteer off of necessities, then we are not living in a free market. I am starting to ramble - again, no coffee yet. BTW I own a medium size business, so I deeply understand the issues. My local government funds activities which directly compete with me (using my tax dollars) so I know there has to be balance.
64. JupiterFL
2:50 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I noticed that the latest Canadian model takes this thing just south of Florida and through the Bahamas. The UKMET does something similar but not as quickly.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
63. LpAngelRob
2:44 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
NOLA,

Point taken. So we have these facts:

1.) The National Weather Service provides free information to the public at no cost (or funded by taxpayers).

2.) Accuweather is a private company that provides detailed information for specific businesses, notably the energy, transportation and to a lesser extent the education sectors.

3.) Senator Santorum has introduced legislation to ensure that item 1 does not undercut item 2.

3a.) Said legislation will not affect weather watches or warnings.

4.) The legislation as written may not be the same as the legislation as summarized in points 1-3a.

5.) Currently, the National Weather Service can undercut private weather enterprises like TWC or Accuweather because of its inherent, government-mandated, and necessary monopoly.

Personally, I don't see anything wrong with #3. That's what people are objecting towards, but I am always under the impression that the objectors are just of the opinion that Big Business should have no rights or protection from Big Brother.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
62. NOLAinNC
2:39 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I tried to watch the movie last night. I can usually tolerate bad movies when they relate to weather phenomenon, but that was THE worst movie I have ever seen (I only watched about 20 minutes of it) There was some freaky sub-plot with an older female preacher and her young apostle who believes he has to kill all the "firstborns" of DC. Unbelievably bad movie in every way possible.
61. MandyFSU
2:36 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Morning all. Here we go again... just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water...
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
60. NOLAinNC
2:34 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
here instead of hear. no coffee yet today!
59. NOLAinNC
2:32 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hey Lp,
I think the anti-Accuweather bent is a result of proposed legislation and regulation changes that would FORBID NWS from issuing forecasts that Accuweather could otherwise charge for. AND coincidentally, some of these changes are being authored and pushed by a senator from Accuweather's home state.
Some folks hear don't believe it is right to have for-profit weather forecasts, especially seeing how accuweather likes to exaggerate in order to drive traffic and sell ads.
58. LpAngelRob
2:22 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I'm not really sure what some people's anti-Accuweather bent is here (typical politics notwithstanding), but has it occurred to you that maybe they're providing a service the National Weather Services doesn't provide? Similar to Steve Gregory's energy markets forecasts?

They have their business, their clientele, and they tailor the services they provide for the businesses they serve.

Or are you trying to say that competition is a bad thing, and that the NWS is the Holy Grail of weather?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
57. oriondarkwood
2:21 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Casey,

The movie you are thinking about is "Day after Tommorrow". Which is another hollywood science movie that makes for a great movie but the real science behind such things is quite boring and would take 100's if not 1000's of years to get to that effect.

Alot of people are thinking global warming is causing all the superstorms and werid weather. But the answer is we don't know because we only been keeping detail weather records in the USA for the last 100 so odd years (1888 comes to mind) and only had the techonlogy to see global weather for the last 20 or 30 years.

Theorically just could be part of some meta-weather cycle because remenber in the timeframe of the earth just a blink ago (10,000ish years) the earth was in a ice age...

And I won't talked about how many ELE's (Exticntion Level Envents) this old mudball we call home has seen in her long life..
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
56. magnitude9
2:12 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Fortunately I didn't see the movie.

Unfortunately, some people will accept it as science, ignoring the real thing. After that other one featuring Dennis Quade (I forget the title) I had all sorts of people telling me that this could happen here and that we had better watch out.

But are these same people aware of the big Sumatran-sized earthquakes that we really do get here in the Pac NW and the need to be prepared for them? No.

Casey
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
55. oriondarkwood
2:10 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
mouseybabe,

Yep, remenber when greed in goverment and business was the exception and not the rule (sad part is I am only 33).

As far as the NWS I am fairly sure you read a few blog posts back where the goverment was cutting monies to the NWS and trying to change to law so that if a private enterprise can do something the NWS is doing then the NWS should stop doing that.

Its starting to sound more and more like 1984 (not the year the movie) every day

As a bouns here is some more fuel to fire (also if you want to talk more about this subject email me here, I won't turn Dr. Masters blog into a goverment rant)

Link
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
54. mouseybabe
1:45 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
orion,

i agree with you about the government... it makes me so angry that we pay taxes to support the nwc, and now they want us to pay again to see the info they collect...

mouseybabe
53. mouseybabe
1:42 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
well, hearing about that stupid movie made me glad i still have no tv since wilma hit...

i finally made myself watch the footage of wilma that my daughter filmed...i had forgotten that we watched the winds try to tear off her roof and not succeed, unlike many of the mobile homes around us...there was a lot of praying here that day...LOL... and neighbors returning said they had prayed for us, so that was very nice...it is surprising how wilma has changed our little park...now people know each other and speak more often...even tho everyone already spoke to me whenever i was out with my little scottie, rabbie, who thinks everyone in the world - man, woman, child, cat, dog, bufo toad - is his friend...

so now we've got a possible gamma, and the models projecting that it won't hit south florida...well, i'm praying again, but i will wait and see...it's been a very hard season down here...now if i can just find a windshield for my car, i will be ready to eveacuate if need be...

mouseybabe
52. oriondarkwood
12:44 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Saw this in the local newpaper

Link

You know its a sad day when it doesn't quote the NWS or even the Weather Channel but ACCUWEATHER. Maybe its just me but the few times I gone to the site or read about ole Joe Bastardi..

I must be in a rant mood today, or maybe cause the goverment is so overtly screwing public service and the common folk for big biz..
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
51. roatangardener
12:42 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Yikes.. is it possible we now have to watch for another possible hurricane cat 2 or 3 just to our east... will be holding our collective breath again here on the island.
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 54 Comments: 198
50. oriondarkwood
12:19 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Well looks like we might get Gamma by the middle to end of the week. Also watched TWC Hurricane Season of 2005, and was very disappointed in it. Most of the show was about Katrina (which yes I will readily admit is the most destructive hurricane in terms of cost and lives to hit the USA in a long time).

But it was a show called the HURRICANE SEASON of 2005. I wanted to hear more about all the factors that made this a historic season, more about is this really globabl warming?, more about the other hurricanes (come on Stan caused more death than Katrina, but it didn't hit the US so it doesn't matter). What about Wilma than hit as a Cat3 when even the experts fiqured a Cat2 at most (not even to mention the experts said a cat5 would be very hard almost impossible this later in the season)

Anyhoot I will get off my soapbox, and for the record I have yet to see Cat7 End of the World, maybe I can catch it on Sci Fi or something (mumble mumble torrent cough cough).
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
49. MJTribe
10:57 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Think that was bad, I watched the Browns and Steelers!!
Member Since: March 2, 2004 Posts: 6 Comments: 8
48. lifesaver
10:39 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
OK, we get it, you wanna see the movie! Let it go. God. I doubt anyone on here taped it. Its over now and ya cant go back in time and record something. Just wait a while and it will be on cable somewhere in a few years. SciFi channel or something. It was a made for TV movie and its not liek they show those things and then have them at best buy the next day - usually cause no one woudl buy them. Thats why they are made for tv, not theatrical release, cause they suck.

let it go ok?

Back to 27. Who would have thought?
47. DocNDswamp
7:40 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Effects from wind shear often seem to lessen overnite going into diurnal period.

Recon w/ the Gulfstream V would be valuable info/data...hope a flight is being scheduled.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4788
46. ProgressivePulse
7:19 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Agree with the blow up, have to see if it can keep it's pants on though. Last night 27 did the same thing but lost the lower level.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
45. arcturus
6:45 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Here are some climatolgy maps from the TPC

Link
44. Trouper415
6:39 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
What are say some october hurricanes that have originated at this location. Anyone know any of those or have a map for it. Thanks
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
43. arcturus
6:35 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Last couple IR frames shows some explosive development with td27, so much for wind shear.
42. arcturus
6:29 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
41. 8888888889gg
6:26 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
so can some one rce category 7 for me i do not get cbs and i would like to see this movie so bad

give me 3 good lol for me not seeing that movie lol
40. 8888888889gg
6:22 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
i got the movie cat 6 what one more cat 7 look like more fun then the cat 6 movie lol
39. ProgressivePulse
6:22 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Need some recon data.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
38. weatherwannabe
6:22 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
37. ProgressivePulse
6:20 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Gotta love to hate the CMC model. GFS is still out to lunch on development.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
36. 8888888889gg
6:20 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
what is so bad about the movie that you do not want me too see a 400 mph hurricane in D.C

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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