2012: Earth's 10th warmest year on record, and warmest with a La Niña

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:04 PM GMT on January 15, 2013

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It was another top-ten hottest year on record during 2012, which ranked as the 10th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said today. NASA rated 2012 as the 9th warmest on record. Including 2012, all 12 years to date in the 21st century (2001–2012) rank among the 14 warmest in the 133-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century--1998--was warmer than 2012. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global land temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 9th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. Following the two wettest years on record (2010 and 2011), 2012 saw near average precipitation on balance across the globe. In a NASA Press Release today, climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said, "One more year of numbers isn't in itself significant. What matters is this decade is warmer than the last decade, and that decade was warmer than the decade before. The planet is warming. The reason it's warming is because we are pumping increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."


Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2012. The continental U.S. and the eastern 2/3 of Canada were Earth's warmest regions, relative to average. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Global extremes of 2012
Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera has put together a list of global extremes for 2012, and maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here, then, is Maximiliano's list of 2012 global extremes:

Hottest temperature in the world in 2012: 53.6°C (128.5°F) in Sulaibiya, Kuwait, July 31
Coldest temperature in the world in 2012: -84.2°C (-119.6°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, September 16
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Birdsville, Australia, January 7
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -63.1°C (-81.6°F) at Summit, Greenland, December 28
Highest annual precipitation: Cherrapunji, India, 13364 mm (526")
Lowest annual precipitation:  Several stations in Southern Egypt saw not even a trace of precipitation

All-time world record warm minimum temperature tied: 41.7°C (107°F), Death Valley (USA), July 12
All-time world record highest 24-hour average temperature: 47.5°C (117.5°F), Death Valley (USA), July 11-12
World record high temperature in an island: 51.8°C (125.2°F), Failaka Island, Kuwait, July 31
World record high temperature on a coast: 52.1°C (125.8°F), Kuwait City, Kuwait, July 31
World record highest temperature with rain: 46.1°C (115°F), Needles (USA), August 13
World record for lowest humidity with rain: 11%, Needles (USA), August 13


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of California and Arizona taken at 1:25 pm PDT August 13, 2012. Developing thunderstorms surround Needles, CA, and the line of clouds to the southwest of the city would develop into a thunderstorm that brought rain to the city at 4 pm PDT, at a temperature of 115°F and a relative humidity of 11%--both world records. Image credit: NASA.

New country and territory hottest temperature records set in 2012
Five nations and two territories tied or set their hottest temperature readings in recorded history during 2012; no coldest all-time national records were set. For comparison, Seven countries and one territory set all-time hottest temperature records in 2011, and one nation set an all-time coldest temperature record. The most all-time national heat records in a year occurred in 2010, when twenty nations and one territory did so. Here are the 2012 national heat records:

Morocco recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 17, 2012 in Marrakech, when the mercury hit 49.6°C (121.3°F).

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31, 2012 in Sulaibya, when the mercury hit 53.6°C (128.5°F). This surpasses the highest undisputed temperature ever recorded in Asia--the 53.5°C (128.3°F) measured at Moen Jo-Daro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010. The only higher temperature ever measured in Asia was a 54°C (129.2°F) reading from Tirat Tsvi, Israel on June 22, 1942. The Israeli Met Office pursued an investigation of the record in 2012 (prompted by an inquiry from the WMO and wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt), and concluded that the record was valid. However, they have refused to make public the details leading to their conclusions, and until they do so, the record remains suspect.

Moldova recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 7, 2012 in Falesti, when the mercury hit 42.4°C (108.3°F).

Montenegro tied its hottest temperature on record on August 8, 2012 in Danilovgrad, when the mercury hit 44.8°C (112.6°F).

The Czech Republic recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 20, 2012 in Dobrichovice, when the mercury hit 40.4°C (104.7°F).

The territory of Hong Kong tied its hottest temperature on record on July 21 on Ping Chau Island, when the mercury hit 37.7°C (99.9°F).

The Sprska Republic set a new territorial high of 42.8°C (109°F) on August 24 at Visegrad.

New U.S. State Records set in 2012
New state record high: South Carolina, at  Columbia University WS and Johnston, 45.0°C (113°F), June 29
State record high temperature tied: Colorado, at Las Animas, 45.6°C (114°F), June 23

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of national heat and cold records on wunderground.com's extremes page, where all of this year's national heat records are updated. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of these national weather records.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out close to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. During 2012, a weak La Niña event was present through March. Warming of the Eastern Pacific waters in the spring brought on neutral conditions, which lasted for the remainder of the year. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present, surpassing the previous record set just the year before, in 2011. Global temperatures were 0.09°C (0.16°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and 2012 would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead of a La Niña, as seen by looking at the year-to-date global temperature plot for 2012.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2012, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Earth's warmest years tend to occur when an El Niño is present; cooler years occur when a La Niña is occurring. A La Niña (El Niño) year is defined here as occurring when the first three months of a calendar year meet the La Niña (El Niño) criteria as defined by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 34 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. Through 2010, the three major research groups that maintain global surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (maintained by UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took these five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. The known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, and the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists agree that human activity is the primary cause of increasing global temperatures in recent decades.


Figure 4. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.


Video 1. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide have continued to warm the planet over the past 16 years. However, a persistent myth has emerged in the mainstream media challenging this. Denial of this fact may have been the favorite climate contrarian myth of 2012. Video courtesy of skepticalscience.com.

Top Ten Weather Lists for 2012

My Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

NCDC's Top Ten Annual Weather/Climate Events

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Jeff Masters

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The 00z NAM went just a tad south with the snowfall
00z




18z
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Quoting Chucktown:
I can't believe this jackass charges 10 K to speak.

Link
Oh, my. It seems you've been misled. Again. In actuality, Mann is speaking at the event for free. From his facebook page:

Maybe I need to hire Christopher Monckton...as my agent! Somehow he (and/or an individual named Tom Nelson he apparently relies upon for his rock-solid information) has apparently negotiated a 10K increase in honorarium for a keynote lecture I'm giving at the Sports Turf Managers Association (STMA) Annual Meeting on Friday. Given that I agreed to do the event pro bono (which the Viscount/Lord/whatever and his trusted information purveyors could have confirmed directly with the STMA) he must clearly be privy to information that neither the STMA and I have. But getting fact right never really was one of the Viscount's strengths, was it?

A little research can go a long way toward preventing the spread of, er, manure...
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Quoting Levi32:


Sorry, but if I have to answer this, it must be complete, because if I answer it in a short fashion, it leaves too much of my views to speculation.

CO2 has an infrared absorption band at about 15 micrometers. The Earth's surface emission spectrum peaks at about 10 micrometers and significantly encompasses 15 micrometer waves. Thus, CO2 does absorb energy output from the Earth's surface. Thus, changes in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere have an effect on the total internal energy of the atmosphere, which leads to an effect on the temperature of the atmosphere due to its limited ability to change its volume.

However, everything changes everything in physics. If I decide to breath 10% faster for the rest of my life, that would affect the temperature of the atmosphere. The question is always how significant is the effect. In the case of my breathing, it is essentially zero. It is an amazingly complicated question to ask how much CO2 affects the atmosphere's temperature, given how much variation there is in the Earth's climate already, and how many other different kinds of gases exist that can absorb IR radiation. We attempt to model all of these variables with global climate models, with a certain degree of success so far.

However, these models are incomplete, and not enough time has yet passed to properly evaluate these models, given that the Earth's major natural atmospheric cycles can be on the order of 30, 60, or 100 years.

I, personally, am an advocate of most of the policies that governments would like to enforce to stop human emission of gases that may cause the Earth to warm. Most of these are great and necessary things to do anyway, like clean the air and water.

Where I still branch from many is the degree of alarmism with which the AGW theory is pushed, and especially the degree of fervent certainty with which the theory is preached, when so little time has actually passed since models were developed for this purpose. In my personal opinion, verification of the predictions of these models and proponents of the AGW theory cannot be proclaimed yet.

Of course, it is also foolish to wait and wait for "verification" if a potential disaster looms, right? Sure, and since human emissions cause other known adverse effects anyway, like pollution, it makes sense to reduce them anyway.

However, the science of this issue has become hopelessly politically contaminated, and nobody can say otherwise. The result has been a barrage of opinions and proposed policy changes by many people that could significantly change society if fully implemented. Unfortunately, this theory has been latched onto by those who would use it as leverage for their own gains, and similarly, those who do not believe the theory (or wish not to), e.g., oil companies, have done the same in the opposite fashion.

Given how muddy this scientific issue has become, I have decided to independently observe it, and hope to cultivate a measured, objective view of this theory as I scientifically mature with time.

And that is my 2 cents.


I appreciate your answer, Levi and I do not disagree with what you are saying. I am not trying to be facetious when I say this, but I know of no "proper" way to say this. .. You used a lot of words to not answer my question.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
comet ISON gif heading towards inner planets set to light the sky nov 2013


ISON is already that bright?!?

Nice picture - thanks!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
NSW with temp and wind direction shown.


Oh my, there coming back, blasted NW winds. Not good for the big fire near Coonabarabran. I've been there, beautiful place.
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725. Skyepony (Mod)
Severe flooding following torrential rain has driven almost 10,000 people from their homes in the Indonesian capital, an official said, with two people killed so far in the seasonal chaos. National disaster management agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said 9374 people had been evacuated to temporary shelters, while a child was among the two victims swept away in the floods Tuesday. "Days of heavy downpours caused the rivers to overflow and triggered floods up to three metres (10 feet)," he told AFP, adding that rivers in the capital Jakarta had a low capacity to contain the monsoon rain. Indonesia is regularly afflicted by deadly floods and landslides during its wet season, which lasts around half the year, and many in the capital live beside rivers that periodically overflow.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Landslide in western North Carolina...

Posted by The Knoxville Journal on January 16th, 2013

U.S. Highway 441 between Gatlinburg and Cherokee, NC will be closed indefinitely since a 200-foot portion of the roadbed washed away at approximately 9:40 a.m.Wednesday Jan. 16.

The asphalt crumbled and fell some 1,000 feet down the side of the mountain after more than eight inches of rain fell since Sunday.
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Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting wxmod:


I just posted that black carbon soot is three times as problematic for global warming than had previously been reported. That was a photo of people breathing black carbon soot. See post 701


Please read the Rules of the Road before commenting any further.

3. No monomania.

Here's the link if you're too lazy to scroll down.

http://wiki.wunderground.com/index.php/WunderBlog s_-_Dr._Masters%27_Blog_Content_Rules
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7913
719. Skyepony (Mod)
EMANG
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Levi32 and TomTaylor, I must say that I am enjoying the debate that you two are having. I am learning quite a bit from your exchanges.

Levi, you have already spent more time obtaining a formal education than I have were it concerns science related studies. Therefore I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?


Sorry, but if I have to answer this, it must be complete, because if I answer it in a short fashion, it leaves too much of my views to speculation.

CO2 has an infrared absorption band at about 15 micrometers. The Earth's surface emission spectrum peaks at about 10 micrometers and significantly encompasses 15 micrometer waves. Thus, CO2 does absorb energy output from the Earth's surface. Thus, changes in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere have an effect on the total internal energy of the atmosphere, which leads to an effect on the temperature of the atmosphere due to its limited ability to expand its volume.

However, everything changes everything in physics. If I decide to breath 10% faster for the rest of my life, that would affect the temperature of the atmosphere. The question is always how significant is the effect. In the case of my breathing, it is essentially zero. It is an amazingly complicated question to ask how much CO2 affects the atmosphere's temperature, given how much variation there is in the Earth's climate already, and how many other different kinds of gases exist that can absorb IR radiation. We attempt to model all of these variables with global climate models, with a certain degree of success so far.

However, these models are incomplete, and not enough time has yet passed to properly evaluate these models, given that the Earth's major natural atmospheric cycles can have periods on the order of 30, 60, or 100 years.

I, personally, am an advocate of most of the policies that governments would like to enforce to stop human emission of gases that may cause the Earth to warm. Most of these are great and necessary things to do anyway, like clean the air and water.

Where I still branch from many is the degree of alarmism with which the AGW theory is pushed, and especially the degree of fervent certainty with which the theory is preached, when so little time has actually passed since models were developed for this purpose. In my personal opinion, verification of the predictions of these models and proponents of the AGW theory cannot be proclaimed yet.

Of course, it is also foolish to wait and wait for "verification" if a potential disaster looms, right? Sure, and since human emissions cause other known adverse effects anyway, like pollution, it makes sense to reduce them anyway.

However, the science of this issue has become hopelessly politically contaminated, and nobody can say otherwise. The result has been a barrage of opinions and proposed policy changes by many people that could significantly change society if fully implemented. Unfortunately, this theory has been latched onto by those who would use it as leverage for their own gains, and similarly, those who do not believe the theory (or wish not to), e.g., oil companies, have done the same in the opposite fashion.

Given how muddy this scientific issue has become, I have decided to independently observe it, and hope to cultivate a measured, objective view of this theory as I scientifically mature with time, drawing no solid conclusions just yet.

And that is my 2 cents.
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WNC is expecting a few more inches of rain, and then SNOW!!!!!!

A landslide closed Hwy 441 in Swain Co.

Everything is very wet here. Looking forward to the SNOW!!!!!!!!!

Hope I didn't jinx it.
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This pic taken by a commercial pilot shows the smoke plume from the Wambelong fire in Coonabarabran. We continue to think of those in western NSW still doing it tough as southern Australia faces its fourth burst of extreme heat and severe fire dangers from today. Courtesy of The Weather Channel Australia
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
I can't believe this jackass charges 10 K to speak.

Link
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714. Skyepony (Mod)
WNC has a lot of rain late yesterday. Flooding in Waynesville. Landslides & flooding in Jackson County..

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0119 PM HEAVY RAIN MARION 35.68N 82.01W
01/15/2013 E0.00 INCH MCDOWELL NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL *** TREE WAS UPROOTED IN SATURATED
SOIL...FALLING ACROSS TWO VEHICLES. ONE OCCUPANT WAS
KILLED.


&&

$$

MCAVOY
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is air pollution in China. We get it. How many days in a row are you going to post about it?

Until someone complains about it. I think many people have that handle on there ignore list cause of there constant monomania on that one subject. I being one.

We know the Chinese Govt is killing it's own people by severely polluting the air they breathe, Call it's govt sanctioned genocide.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
712. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting wxmod:


I just posted that black carbon soot is three times as problematic for global warming than had previously been reported. That was a photo of people breathing black carbon soot. See post 701


How do you know that they are ?? Pic could have been taken anywhere in the past ..
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I mentioned earlier that there was an accident by my house. Turns out it was 4 vehicles and there was one fatality, but little else has been forthcoming.

Crash
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5697
Quoting wxmod:


I just posted that black carbon soot is three times as problematic for global warming than had previously been reported. That was a photo of people breathing black carbon soot. See post 701

Gotcha.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31565
709. wxmod
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is air pollution in China. We get it. How many days in a row are you going to post about it?


I just posted that black carbon soot is three times as problematic for global warming than had previously been reported. That was a photo of people breathing black carbon soot. See post 701
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Levi32 and TomTaylor, I must say that I am enjoying the debate that you two are having. I am learning quite a bit from your exchanges.

Levi, you have already spent more time obtaining a formal education than I have were it concerns science related studies. Therefore I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?
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Quoting wxmod:

There is air pollution in China. We get it. How many days in a row are you going to post about it?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31565
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a good chance of above average temperatures across the South for the 8-14 day period. That kind of interests me considering the ECMWF and GFS show average to even below average temperatures for much of the region.







Given how amplified the pattern has been over the lower 48 the last week or so, I am having a lot of difficulty believing such a dramatic upswing in temperatures. Also supported by the local NWS forecast for my area.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
705. wxmod
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a good chance of above average temperatures across the South for the 8-14 day period. That kind of interests me considering the ECMWF and GFS show average to even below average temperatures for much of the region.





Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31565
Quoting TomTaylor:
Wait, now you're going back to Sandy-like tracks lol.

I already agreed that we'd need to observe more storms of Sandy's track to conclude whether more blocking specifically favors that type of track.

MY point is that blocking in general favors anomalies in the pattern (well obviously, blocking is an anomaly). Anomalies in the pattern produce steering anomalies, causing track anomalies. That's just in general terms, I'm not looking at any specific storm track. Furthermore, if you don't like that explanation, more heat in the atmosphere = more entropy. Entropy can be loosely be described as chaos. Therefore, as the overall temperature of our atmosphere increases, things become increasingly erratic and chaotic.


Ok, I see where we veered off. Sure, it's rather obvious that anomalies in one parameter can propagate and cause anomalies in other parameters.

However, I'm not convinced that blocking at 60N and northward is likely to have a significant impact on TC tracks at 40N and southward. A study could certainly be done on it.

The entropy comment....well, change in entropy "dS" is dQ/T, so a change in the total heat content of the system and a change in the temperature of the system can both affect the entropy, and an increase in temperature lowers it, while an increase in total heat content raises it. I am not educated on the trends in entropy of the Earth-atmosphere system.
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I think this is severely overdone but I would love for it to come true:
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701. wxmod
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/16/science/earth/b urning-fuel-particles-do-more-damage-to-climate-th an-thought-study-says.html?_r=0

Burning Fuel Particles Do More Damage to Climate Than Thought, Study Says
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
Published: January 15, 2013


The tiny black particles released into the atmosphere by burning fuels are far more powerful agents of global warming than had previously been estimated, some of the world’s most prominent atmospheric scientists reported in a study issued on Tuesday.


... three times the previously estimated rate.
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Quoting Grothar:
This is a test!!! In order to insure Grothar doesn't forget his bookmarks, he will run these once a month.




Not to worry, Grothar. I have some spare bookmarks, if you need any.

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Quoting Levi32:


I still submit it's not that simple. Every TC track is anomalous ("irregular") in some way or another. There is always an anomaly in the pattern.

The question here, specifically, is whether Sandy-like tracks, which I interpret to mean recurving, northward moving storms curving back to the NNW or NW in the western Atlantic, could increase due to a warming arctic.

You have put forth a theory that the resulting increase in blocking in the arctic can indeed cause more of these types of back-bending tracks. Looking at the 500mb height correlation against the NAO for July-September, the blocking is very confined to the Greenland region, quite far to the north, and based on the correlation map, one could even argue that a positive NAO generates more relevant blocking to cause back-bending TC tracks near the eastern seaboard. The positioning of arctic blocking due to sea ice melt has always been quite far north, making its influence on TC tracks in the tropics and subtropics unknown, and potentially rather insignificant. Again, it is hard to know.

Wait, now you're going back to Sandy-like tracks lol.

I already agreed that we'd need to observe more storms of Sandy's track to conclude whether more blocking specifically favors that type of track.

MY point is that blocking in general favors anomalies in the pattern (well obviously, blocking is an anomaly). Anomalies in the pattern produce steering anomalies, causing track anomalies. That's just in general terms, I'm not looking at any specific storm track. Furthermore, if you don't like that explanation, more heat in the atmosphere = more entropy. Entropy can be loosely be described as chaos. Therefore, as the overall temperature of our atmosphere increases, things become increasingly erratic and chaotic.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
The point is, in general, more blocking favors more irregular tracks. This is simply because a block is an anomaly in the height field. An anomaly in the height field will produce an anomaly in the pattern, producing anomalies in the steering, leading to anomalies in the track. No, not every block has a significant influence on track. But if we see more blocking in the North Atlantic (which makes sense because the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe), this would favor more anomalies in the storm track.


I still submit it's not that simple. Every TC track is anomalous ("irregular") in some way or another. There is always an anomaly in the pattern.

The question here, specifically, is whether Sandy-like tracks, which I interpret to mean recurving, northward moving storms curving back to the NNW or NW in the western Atlantic, could increase due to a warming arctic.

You have put forth a theory that the resulting increase in blocking in the arctic can indeed cause more of these types of back-bending tracks. Looking at the 500mb height correlation against the NAO for July-October, the blocking is very confined to the Greenland region, quite far to the north, and based on the correlation map, one could even argue that a positive NAO generates more relevant blocking to cause back-bending TC tracks near the eastern seaboard. The positioning of arctic blocking due to sea ice melt has always been quite far north, making its potential influence on TC tracks in the tropics and subtropics pretty ambiguous, and potentially rather insignificant. Again, it is hard to know.

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It begins in earnest, a tad ahead of forecast.




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comet ISON gif heading towards inner planets set to light the sky nov 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Via Lappy toppy :

LOL

A banned blogger masking comments ....about a conversation he can only plus within his age group.


The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. The known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, and the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists agree that human activity is the primary cause of increasing global temperatures in recent decades.

Maybe stick to yer schtick in Dr. Roods entries sport

Jarheads never run.

We prove a point with overwhelming tact and well, "Facts."

AKA as da Truth as it exists.


Bloggers with experience and one handle here always get a laff from the ones that,

..well, u know.

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Quoting Levi32:
No. As many often complain about on this forum, let's not have blogging websites as "sources." Furthermore, let's not have arctic sea ice graphs as replacements for global temperature graphs.

I would be interested in a scientific publication (i.e. paper) that shows the underplaying of 21st-century warming so far by IPCC AR4 GCMs.


warming is occurring
with ever faster and faster results
been more so since 2010 with events occuring
every 6 months to every few months
to every few weeks
to every couple of weeks
soon to be every week
then every other day
and finally every day
see where its going
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting Levi32:



Though, as I pointed out earlier, the position of the blocking matters, and blocking associated with the -AO or -NAO is usually quite far to the north, and may or may not actually exert a significant influence on TC tracks in the Atlantic. Again, as an example, if the blocking is too far north, there can be troughing and a jetstream underneath that allows storms to recurve northeastward like normal, despite a large amount of blocking.

Potentially missed problems with a theory are why they must be tested.
The point is, in general, more blocking favors more irregular tracks. This is simply because a block is an anomaly in the height field. An anomaly in the height field will produce an anomaly in the pattern, producing anomalies in the steering, leading to anomalies in the track. No, not every block has a significant influence on track. But if we see more blocking in the North Atlantic (which makes sense because the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe), this would favor more anomalies in the storm track.

As proof that warmer Arctic leads to greater blocking around Greenland, look below. 500mb Heights from Jan-Dec 2000-2012 against the 1980-2010 average. Map shows that over the last decade or so, heights have been anomalously high in the Greenland region, like we saw with Sandy. The AMO is likely partially responsible for this, but similarly, Arctic warming and the AMO both influence temperatures and SSTs around Greenland, so in other words more Arctic warming around Greenland would favor more blocking over there. Since more Arctic warming favors more anomalous blocking around Greenland, the pattern itself becomes anomalous, favoring anomalous storm tracks.


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Quoting Patrap:
Well,been phun as always.

We off up I-55 to Jackson to meet da snow line.

In da werds of a Famous Ding Dong.

Ciao'

Tucks tail between legs and leaves would be a better way to put it.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2255
Everyone have a beer.Drinks on me.Anyway looking forward to that oh familiar stranger that's paying a visit...snow :).
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Quoting Levi32:
No. As many often complain about on this forum, let's not have blogging websites as "sources." Furthermore, let's not have arctic sea ice graphs as replacements for global temperature graphs.

I would be interested in a scientific publication (i.e. paper) that shows the underplaying of 21st-century warming so far by IPCC AR4 GCMs.
You're right; Arctic sea ice graphs should be enough for most people to realize that we have a problem on our hands.

PIOMAS Ice Volume




PIOMAS Ice Volume Projections





Clearly global temperatures are going up, though they have leveled off a bit recently. Clearly man has some influence on the climate, though it is hard to say how much. Clearly we have a serious problem in the Arctic. Clearly something should be done.
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Well,been phun as always.

We off up I-55 to Jackson to meet da snow line.

In da werds of a Famous Ding Dong.

Ciao'

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685.

Well, it was your claim, so it's your burden to cite it. I made an observation regarding that claim and cited my sources. If you don't have the time to do the same right now, that's fine, but that burden is not on my shoulders.
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Reading the current entry is always a good starting point.

Every Gnome know's dat.


A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took these five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
The link between anomalously warm Arctic temperatures and anomalous high-latitude blocking is a given. Those images show that. Higher frequency of blocking would favor more erratic, irregular, and unusual storm tracks. That is simply common sense. The only question that remains is would a higher frequency of blocking specifically favor Sandy-like tracks?

Given that Sandy's track was irregular and unusual, higher frequency of high-latitude blocking would most likely increase the odds. However, to officially determine that, we'd need to wait for more tracks of Sandy's type.



Though, as I pointed out earlier, the position of the blocking matters, and blocking associated with the -AO or -NAO is usually quite far to the north, and may or may not actually exert a significant influence on TC tracks in the Atlantic. Again, as an example, if the blocking is too far north, there can be troughing and a jetstream underneath that allows storms to recurve northeastward like normal, despite a large amount of blocking.

Potentially missed problems with a theory are why they must be tested.
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Quoting Levi32:
No. As many often complain about on this forum, let's not have blogging websites as "sources." Furthermore, let's not have arctic sea ice graphs as replacements for global temperature graphs.

I would be interested in a scientific publication (i.e. paper) that shows the underplaying of 21st-century warming so far by IPCC AR4 GCMs.


No problems,the data sets are complete and many exist as published material

Your comeuppance of denial always triggers your angst.

Maybe try some chats with Dr. Rood or others.


Im jus a NOLA Gnome really.



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If this were taking place in a parking lot, I would have to call the fight to save the guy from NOLA from getting anymore damage done to him.

Reminds me of some of the old Tyson fights it was ugly and over quick.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2255
No. As many often complain about on this forum, let's not have blogging websites as "sources." Furthermore, let's not have arctic sea ice graphs as replacements for global temperature graphs.

I would be interested in a scientific publication (i.e. paper) that shows the underplaying of 21st-century warming so far by IPCC AR4 GCMs.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.