2012: Earth's 10th warmest year on record, and warmest with a La Niña

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:04 PM GMT on January 15, 2013

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It was another top-ten hottest year on record during 2012, which ranked as the 10th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said today. NASA rated 2012 as the 9th warmest on record. Including 2012, all 12 years to date in the 21st century (2001–2012) rank among the 14 warmest in the 133-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century--1998--was warmer than 2012. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global land temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 9th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. Following the two wettest years on record (2010 and 2011), 2012 saw near average precipitation on balance across the globe. In a NASA Press Release today, climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said, "One more year of numbers isn't in itself significant. What matters is this decade is warmer than the last decade, and that decade was warmer than the decade before. The planet is warming. The reason it's warming is because we are pumping increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."


Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2012. The continental U.S. and the eastern 2/3 of Canada were Earth's warmest regions, relative to average. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Global extremes of 2012
Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera has put together a list of global extremes for 2012, and maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here, then, is Maximiliano's list of 2012 global extremes:

Hottest temperature in the world in 2012: 53.6°C (128.5°F) in Sulaibiya, Kuwait, July 31
Coldest temperature in the world in 2012: -84.2°C (-119.6°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, September 16
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Birdsville, Australia, January 7
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -63.1°C (-81.6°F) at Summit, Greenland, December 28
Highest annual precipitation: Cherrapunji, India, 13364 mm (526")
Lowest annual precipitation:  Several stations in Southern Egypt saw not even a trace of precipitation

All-time world record warm minimum temperature tied: 41.7°C (107°F), Death Valley (USA), July 12
All-time world record highest 24-hour average temperature: 47.5°C (117.5°F), Death Valley (USA), July 11-12
World record high temperature in an island: 51.8°C (125.2°F), Failaka Island, Kuwait, July 31
World record high temperature on a coast: 52.1°C (125.8°F), Kuwait City, Kuwait, July 31
World record highest temperature with rain: 46.1°C (115°F), Needles (USA), August 13
World record for lowest humidity with rain: 11%, Needles (USA), August 13


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of California and Arizona taken at 1:25 pm PDT August 13, 2012. Developing thunderstorms surround Needles, CA, and the line of clouds to the southwest of the city would develop into a thunderstorm that brought rain to the city at 4 pm PDT, at a temperature of 115°F and a relative humidity of 11%--both world records. Image credit: NASA.

New country and territory hottest temperature records set in 2012
Five nations and two territories tied or set their hottest temperature readings in recorded history during 2012; no coldest all-time national records were set. For comparison, Seven countries and one territory set all-time hottest temperature records in 2011, and one nation set an all-time coldest temperature record. The most all-time national heat records in a year occurred in 2010, when twenty nations and one territory did so. Here are the 2012 national heat records:

Morocco recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 17, 2012 in Marrakech, when the mercury hit 49.6°C (121.3°F).

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31, 2012 in Sulaibya, when the mercury hit 53.6°C (128.5°F). This surpasses the highest undisputed temperature ever recorded in Asia--the 53.5°C (128.3°F) measured at Moen Jo-Daro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010. The only higher temperature ever measured in Asia was a 54°C (129.2°F) reading from Tirat Tsvi, Israel on June 22, 1942. The Israeli Met Office pursued an investigation of the record in 2012 (prompted by an inquiry from the WMO and wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt), and concluded that the record was valid. However, they have refused to make public the details leading to their conclusions, and until they do so, the record remains suspect.

Moldova recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 7, 2012 in Falesti, when the mercury hit 42.4°C (108.3°F).

Montenegro tied its hottest temperature on record on August 8, 2012 in Danilovgrad, when the mercury hit 44.8°C (112.6°F).

The Czech Republic recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 20, 2012 in Dobrichovice, when the mercury hit 40.4°C (104.7°F).

The territory of Hong Kong tied its hottest temperature on record on July 21 on Ping Chau Island, when the mercury hit 37.7°C (99.9°F).

The Sprska Republic set a new territorial high of 42.8°C (109°F) on August 24 at Visegrad.

New U.S. State Records set in 2012
New state record high: South Carolina, at  Columbia University WS and Johnston, 45.0°C (113°F), June 29
State record high temperature tied: Colorado, at Las Animas, 45.6°C (114°F), June 23

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of national heat and cold records on wunderground.com's extremes page, where all of this year's national heat records are updated. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of these national weather records.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out close to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. During 2012, a weak La Niña event was present through March. Warming of the Eastern Pacific waters in the spring brought on neutral conditions, which lasted for the remainder of the year. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present, surpassing the previous record set just the year before, in 2011. Global temperatures were 0.09°C (0.16°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and 2012 would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead of a La Niña, as seen by looking at the year-to-date global temperature plot for 2012.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2012, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Earth's warmest years tend to occur when an El Niño is present; cooler years occur when a La Niña is occurring. A La Niña (El Niño) year is defined here as occurring when the first three months of a calendar year meet the La Niña (El Niño) criteria as defined by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 34 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. Through 2010, the three major research groups that maintain global surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (maintained by UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took these five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. The known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, and the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists agree that human activity is the primary cause of increasing global temperatures in recent decades.


Figure 4. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.


Video 1. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide have continued to warm the planet over the past 16 years. However, a persistent myth has emerged in the mainstream media challenging this. Denial of this fact may have been the favorite climate contrarian myth of 2012. Video courtesy of skepticalscience.com.

Top Ten Weather Lists for 2012

My Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

NCDC's Top Ten Annual Weather/Climate Events

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Jeff Masters

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783. Skyepony (Mod)
That's just the short version. There is a 50 page book on solar activity affecting climate. The recent NRC Workshop report. You can read it online here for free.
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Quoting Terradad:



Some people say that the last 10 years or so haven't warmed up much, just maintained the recent maximum, and this could indicate a 'saturation level' with CO2.
And the main problem with CO2 is the IR absorbed from the Earth, not the IR absorbed from the Sun, although both sources are absorbed by CO2.


We have been under diminished solar activity and with no strong and sustained El Nino events during most of the past 10 years. This will help slow the atmosphere from warming as fast as it was prior to these events, but the over all warming has still continued. I strongly suspect that once we return to a more normal level of solar activity in conjunction with a moderate to strong El Nino event then we will see the atmospheric warming continue at an increased pace.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I agree, Doug. I enjoyed PBW's posts. I hope that she comes back soon. Perhaps when she finally gets over the flu? We can keep our fingers crossed for this to happen soon.
blogs no place to be if not feeling well thing can bring the worse out in a person
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Interesting. Perhaps the current level of CO2 in the atmosphere has reached its capacity to absorb the infrared wavelengths. But, we keep adding to this level. The only way for this to balance out is if all of the infrared wavelengths from our sun was already being absorbed by the amount of CO2 that is currently in our atmosphere. This would mean that it would not matter how much CO2 we added from this point forward because there are no more infrared wavelengths left to be absorbed. Observations show that our planet continues to warm, so we obviously have not reached that saturation point yet when you factor in that solar activity has been low and that there have been no strong El Nino events for a few years now. One would think that if CO2 had indeed reached its saturation point already that we would see the planet cooling now.



Some people say that the last 10 years or so haven't warmed up much, just maintained the recent maximum, and this could indicate a 'saturation level' with CO2.
And the main problem with CO2 is the IR absorbed from the Earth, not the IR absorbed from the Sun, although both sources are absorbed by CO2.
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779. Skyepony (Mod)
This is out of a pretty neat write up from NASA the other day about how solar activity, sunspots & such affects ENSO (la Nina - El Nino). This is the gist but there is alot of other great points & info in there. Long live SDO..

Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) presented persuasive evidence that solar variability is leaving an imprint on climate, especially in the Pacific. According to the report, when researchers look at sea surface temperature data during sunspot peak years, the tropical Pacific shows a pronounced La Nina-like pattern, with a cooling of almost 1o C in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In addition, "there are signs of enhanced precipitation in the Pacific ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ) and SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) as well as above-normal sea-level pressure in the mid-latitude North and South Pacific," correlated with peaks in the sunspot cycle.

The solar cycle signals are so strong in the Pacific, that Meehl and colleagues have begun to wonder if something in the Pacific climate system is acting to amplify them. "One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system ... is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific." Using supercomputer models of climate, they show that not only "top-down" but also "bottom-up" mechanisms involving atmosphere-ocean interactions are required to amplify solar forcing at the surface of the Pacific.


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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


PBW is a woman. A nice one at that. She doesn't care too much for some bloggers here tho.


I agree, Doug. I enjoyed PBW's posts. I hope that she comes back soon. Perhaps when she finally gets over the flu? We can keep our fingers crossed for this to happen soon.
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Quoting CCkid00:
I have a question? I am just east of Baton Rouge, La. They are calling for possible snow flurrie, but not anything significant. Are any of the models showing anything more? This situation seems similar to the wrap around in December of 2008. Same predictions and we woke to heavy snow.....ending with 7" at my home...the most I have ever seen here.



I remember that. I was so envious!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
715 Chucktown: I can't believe this jackass charges 10 K to speak.

Then again Mann gets hit with multi-million dollar lawsuits for speaking. It'd take 100 $10thousand lectures to make $1million.
And lawsuits are EXPENSIVE to defend against... even, perhaps especially, against frivolous lawsuits maliciously filed purely for the purpose of harrassment&intimidation.
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I have a question? I am just east of Baton Rouge, La. They are calling for possible snow flurrie, but not anything significant. Are any of the models showing anything more? This situation seems similar to the wrap around in December of 2008. Same predictions and we woke to heavy snow.....ending with 7" at my home...the most I have ever seen here.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I was thinking that PBW is a woman. I thought that I saw where PBW had mentioned this, but I may be wrong.


PBW is a woman. A nice one at that. She doesn't care too much for some bloggers here tho.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
Good Night All - Stay Safe and Warm - Sleep Well - Snow for everyone who wants it :p
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4946
Quoting Terradad:


CO2 absorbs radiation in only certain wavelengths. I have heard it said that CO2 is already absorbing all it can in these wavelengths, so adding more CO2 will not cause any problems. I do not believe this, but I have heard it said by others.






Interesting. Perhaps the current level of CO2 in the atmosphere has reached its capacity to absorb the infrared wavelengths. But, we keep adding to this level. The only way for this to balance out is if all of the infrared wavelengths from our sun was already being absorbed by the amount of CO2 that is currently in our atmosphere. This would mean that it would not matter how much CO2 we added from this point forward because there are no more infrared wavelengths left to be absorbed. Observations show that our planet continues to warm, so we obviously have not reached that saturation point yet when you factor in that solar activity has been low and that there have been no strong El Nino events for a few years now. One would think that if CO2 had indeed reached its saturation point already that we would see the planet cooling now.
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Where you been? Haven't seen you on here in awhile. Did you just thaw out?





i hid a lot in the off season
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you may not see as much snow as thought earlier today. The NAM was never really excited about your prospects for several inches from the get go, and now the GFS is shifting that direction.

You'll still see it though.
It can't be like the other failed snowstorms in the past.I actually want something on the ground where it's measurable.Not a dusting or trace..

Ncstorm is would be a shame if N.C got more snow than D.C.It's like everywhere else is getting snow except for this small part of the mid-Atlantic.
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Quoting ncstorm:


the models are not handling the system very well..it could very well end up in the 06z run where my area is that one piece of corner of NC that wont get a flake and the snow is concentrated further north..it really is model watching at this point..
or the storm could be smaller/bigger than the models shows...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7507
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm screwed if that happends.

Yeah. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you may not see as much snow as thought earlier today. The NAM was never really excited about your prospects for several inches from the get go, and now the GFS is shifting that direction.

You'll still see it though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30293
Quoting Levi32:


What I did tell you is that, based on the laws of physics, tons/day of CO2 is capable of altering the atmosphere's temperature. The catch is the phrase "beyond natural variations." The laws of physics can give you an answer, but I cannot give you that answer because humans are not yet fully adept at modeling the known laws of physics. Thus, we don't yet know all of the answers that the laws of physics can give. An answer to your question requires near-complete knowledge of all possible ramifications of physical laws applied to our Earth.

The solid answer to your question exists. I, personally, don't think we've yet found it. Therefore, how can I give it to you?

I'm not sure how else to put it.


I can accept that. We do not know everything there is to know and I certainly agree with you on that. There is much variability that must accounted for.

Let me try using some variables in our climate and try this from another approach. We will consider that all other variables remain the same except for the ones that I will use here.

Let us say that we enter a 20 year period where the solar activity is unusually low, but within its natural variability. Let us also that we have a strong La Nina event that last for ten years during this same time. Using the Laws of Physics, would you expect to see the atmosphere cool more with 250ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere than with 400ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere?

Now, let us reverse this process. All other variables being the same, we see a 20 year period of heavy solar activity, but within the natural variability, and a strong 10 year El Nino cycle during the same time frame. Using the Laws of Physics, would you expect to see more atmospheric warming at 250ppm of CO2 than with 400ppm of CO2?

We will consider that the La Nina and El Nino cycles begin 5 years after the solar activity begins to keep everything otherwise equal.

I have a great deal of respect for you and for your knowledge. Should I be pushing the limits of your patience with me, then we can end it here. I will accept that you have answered my first question within the knowledge of what we can know at this time.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm screwed if that happends.


the models are not handling the system very well..it could very well end up in the 06z run where my area is that one piece of corner of NC that wont get a flake and the snow is concentrated further north..it really is model watching at this point..
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Quoting ncstorm:
Wow..the 00z GFS has trended south with the 00z NAM..come on SNOW

I'm screwed if that happends.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Wow..the 00z GFS has trended south with the 00z NAM..come on SNOW

GO SOUTH, MODELS! C'mon GFS... C'mon, NAM...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7507
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You did give an excellent assessment of your sentiments on the topic of the AGWT, but you did not answer the question that I put before you.

I will ask the same question again. ... I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?

Perhaps my question is too ambiguous? I can try to rephrase it, if you wish. You are quite free to decline answering the question and we can leave it at that. You are not obligated, by any means, to answer it.


CO2 absorbs radiation in only certain wavelengths. I have heard it said that CO2 is already absorbing all it can in these wavelengths, so adding more CO2 will not cause any problems. I do not believe this, but I have heard it said by others.




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Quoting Tazmanian:
now this is funny


Link


Where you been? Haven't seen you on here in awhile. Did you just thaw out?
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Quoting Astrometeor:


New? Just the usual stuff that happens in the off-season, nothing surprising.....


I didn't explain myself...

Anything new with the storm for the central eastern US? Like a track shift, intensity from new model runs...?
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Most, if not all, of North Carolina should see snowfall tomorrow night into Friday morning. We shouldn't see snowfall accumulations southeast of the Raleigh area, however.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30293
Wow..the 00z GFS has trended south with the 00z NAM..come on SNOW

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im back...anything new?


New? Just the usual stuff that happens in the off-season, nothing surprising.....
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You did give an excellent assessment of your sentiments on the topic of the AGWT, but you did not answer the question that I put before you.

I will ask the same question again. ... I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?

Perhaps my question is too ambiguous? I can try to rephrase it, if you wish. You are quite free to decline answering the question and we can leave it at that. You are not obligated, by any means, to answer it.


I'm not Levi but not need to be a scientific to know that everything in excess hurts
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?


What I did tell you is that, based on the laws of physics, tons/day of CO2 is capable of altering the atmosphere's temperature. The catch is the phrase "beyond natural variations." The laws of physics can give you an answer, but I cannot give you that answer because humans are not yet fully adept at modeling the known laws of physics. Thus, we don't yet know all of the answers that the laws of physics can give. An answer to your question requires near-complete knowledge of all possible ramifications of physical laws applied to our Earth.

The solid answer to your question exists. I, personally, don't think we've yet found it. Therefore, how can I give it to you?

I'm not sure how else to put it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
Im back...anything new?
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now this is funny


Link
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Quoting Levi32:


That's because your question cannot be directly answered in a few words.

I can neither give you a solid "yes" or a solid "no" to your question. The only way to approach your question without misrepresenting myself was to give an overview of my current thought process on the issue. A part of your question is a "yes" (does CO2 affect the atmospheric temperature?), but another part of your question is a "can't know for sure yet" (does it affect the atmospheric temperature beyond natural variation?).


You did give an excellent assessment of your sentiments on the topic of the AGWT, but you did not answer the question that I put before you.

I will ask the same question again. ... I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?

Perhaps my question is too ambiguous? I can try to rephrase it, if you wish. You are quite free to decline answering the question and we can leave it at that. You are not obligated, by any means, to answer it.
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1006 PM EST Wednesday Jan 16 2013


Synopsis...
a cold front will continue to drift slowly through the region
into tonight. Low pressure is forecast develop over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico and move northeast along the front on Thursday. As the low
moves off the North Carolina coast Thursday night...the weather will
be drier and seasonably cool for the weekend.


&&


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
as of 10 PM...over the course of the evening I have been monitoring
trends in the model guidance and updating the forecast
accordingly. Two trends have occurred...guidance is wetter and
slight quicker with cooling temperatures late tomorrow afternoon and
evening. In short...the potential for heavy snow has increased
across the NC mountains...remaining around the same as the previous
package east.

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Quoting AussieStorm:


Now now Nea, No need for name calling, that's kindergarten stuff.
Please read the post to which I was responding--#715--then get back to me about name-calling (which referring to manure as manure most definitely is not), would ya, mate?

As has been said only about a thousand times here, even if Al Gore and James Hansen and Michael Mann and Jeff Masters were proven to be the most evil, despicable, manipulative, dishonest, hypocritical money-grubbing people in the history of the planet, it wouldn't change one iota the fact that the globe is rapidly warming. Given that, it's difficult to understand why contrarians spend so much time and effort trying to demonize them. Unless, of course, they've got nothing else. Which is, now that I think about it, a distinct possibility.

Anyway, speaking of hockey sticks:

HS

That's an awful lot of validation, no?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
932mb storm

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Normal is 43/67 Today was 41.9/69.5 which is +6F above yesterday temp.
This is so close to normal I better just quit whining and be happy I am not up to my ankles in snow or in the path of that arctic blast. I have no snow removal stuff or winter attire. End of ramble..... :p
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4946
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I appreciate your answer, Levi and I do not disagree with what you are saying. I am not trying to be facetious when I say this, but I know of no "proper" way to say this. .. You used a lot of words to not answer my question.


That's because your question cannot be directly answered in a few words.

I can neither give you a solid "yes" or a solid "no" to your question. The only way to approach your question without misrepresenting myself was to give an overview of my current thought process on the issue. A part of your question is a "yes" (does CO2 affect the atmospheric temperature?), but another part of your question is a "can't know for sure yet" (does it affect the atmospheric temperature beyond natural variation?).

Now if I had said that last part with no context, it likely would have lead to many readers assuming many things about my views. Thus, I clarified in advance.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
A local met just said he thinks we could have thunder snow in central NC tomorrow evening. It's been 20 years since I've seen that! I have my doubts, but the system dynamics are looking strong enough.
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Phwee, finally finished my Directed Study mid-term project. Covers all that I did with the weather this semester.

While others are going to get snow, it will remain relatively dry and get pretty cold next week.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my. It seems you've been misled. Again. In actuality, Mann is speaking at the event for free. From his facebook page:

Maybe I need to hire Christopher Monckton...as my agent! Somehow he (and/or an individual named Tom Nelson he apparently relies upon for his rock-solid information) has apparently negotiated a 10K increase in honorarium for a keynote lecture I'm giving at the Sports Turf Managers Association (STMA) Annual Meeting on Friday. Given that I agreed to do the event pro bono (which the Viscount/Lord/whatever and his trusted information purveyors could have confirmed directly with the STMA) he must clearly be privy to information that neither the STMA and I have. But getting fact right never really was one of the Viscount's strengths, was it?

A little research can go a long way toward preventing the spread of, er, manure...
You are right a little research can go along way toward preventing the spread of, er manure. You and Chucktown are talking about two different speaking engagments. One is Thursday and one is Friday.

The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars

Valencia College Lecture and Book Signing
Valencia College
Orlando, FL (January 17, 2013)
Publicity: Event Flyer

The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars

STMA Annual meeting 2013Lecture and Book Signing
Sports Turf Managers Association Annual Meeting
Daytona, FL (January 18, 2013)
Publicity: Conference Program


James Adamski, who is organizing Mann's talk at Valencia College, declined to disclose how much the college is spending on Mann's speaker fees. Adamski confirmed in a telephone call that he worked out a financial agreement with Mann, but now claims he doesn't know or doesn't remember specifically what is contained in those financial agreements.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my. It seems you've been misled. Again. In actuality, Mann is speaking at the event for free. From his facebook page:

Maybe I need to hire Christopher Monckton...as my agent! Somehow he (and/or an individual named Tom Nelson he apparently relies upon for his rock-solid information) has apparently negotiated a 10K increase in honorarium for a keynote lecture I'm giving at the Sports Turf Managers Association (STMA) Annual Meeting on Friday. Given that I agreed to do the event pro bono (which the Viscount/Lord/whatever and his trusted information purveyors could have confirmed directly with the STMA) he must clearly be privy to information that neither the STMA and I have. But getting fact right never really was one of the Viscount's strengths, was it?

A little research can go a long way toward preventing the spread of, er, manure...


Golden hockey sticks cost money...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is air pollution in China. We get it. How many days in a row are you going to post about it?

365 days in every year...

But seriously, it is not the content wxmod posts, but how frequently he/she posts it. It does get annoying but I am being nice and not trying not to use my ignore feature unless I really have to. I unignored anyone on it on New Years Eve.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I was thinking that PBW is a woman. I thought that I saw where PBW had mentioned this, but I may be wrong.


Yes, you are correct she is indeed a Woman.........
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4946
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I was thinking that PBW is a woman. I thought that I saw where PBW had mentioned this, but I may be wrong.

I just used that as a more generic term. Maybe I should of said he/she.

I only just learnt VR46L is a lady.
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Quoting Chapelhill:
Landslide in western North Carolina...

Posted by The Knoxville Journal on January 16th, 2013

U.S. Highway 441 between Gatlinburg and Cherokee, NC will be closed indefinitely since a 200-foot portion of the roadbed washed away at approximately 9:40 a.m.Wednesday Jan. 16.

The asphalt crumbled and fell some 1,000 feet down the side of the mountain after more than eight inches of rain fell since Sunday.


If you've ever been on this road, it's very pretty, but it's also very scary driving on it. Surprised we haven't heard about more of these up that way...
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Now now Nea, No need for name calling, that's kindergarten stuff.


I wonder when PalmBeachWeather will come off his ban, I hope it's soon.


I was thinking that PBW is a woman. I thought that I saw where PBW had mentioned this, but I may be wrong.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my. It seems you've been misled. Again. In actuality, Mann is speaking at the event for free. From his facebook page:

Maybe I need to hire Christopher Monckton (yes, this guy: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Christo pher_Monckton ) as my agent! Somehow he (and/or an individual named Tom Nelson he apparently relies upon for his rock-solid information) has apparently negotiated a 10K increase in honorarium for a keynote lecture I'm giving at the Sports Turf Managers Association (STMA) Annual Meeting on Friday. Given that I agreed to do the event pro bono (which the Viscount/Lord/whatever and his trusted information purveyors could have confirmed directly with the STMA) he must clearly be privy to information that neither the STMA and I have. But getting fact right never really was one of the Viscount's strengths, was it? (http://www.desmogblog.com/pompous-prat-alert-visc ount-monckton-tour)


A little research can go a long way toward preventing the spread of, er, manure...


Now now Nea, No need for name calling, that's kindergarten stuff.

I wonder when PalmBeachWeather will come off his ban, I hope it's soon.
So to keep this post weather related. I'll post this.....

Fire authorities on alert as temperatures climb

Fire crews are fighting a grass fire at Jancourt south of Camperdown in Victoria's south west.
About five tankers are at the scene of the fire and water-bombing aircraft have been called in.
The fire is smaller than five hectares.
Cloudy conditions and cooler temperatures earlier Thursday have helped firefighters who are on alert across Victoria.
Temperatures are now rising into the 40s in the north west, but there have been no major fires reported.
Total Fire Bans remain in place in the Wimmera, the North Central, Central and South West districts.
Victorians are being urged to stay on alert and keep abreast of fire updates.

Severe fire danger is forecast for most of the state.
Authorities are warning any fires that break out will move very quickly.
Premier Ted Baillieu says Victoria is extremely dry and the risk of fires is significant.
"If there is a fire, then the prospect of that fire running fast and running intensively is also significant," he said.
"It's obviously important that everybody take full measure of the circumstances they find themselves in, pay attention to all communications, and I say all communications."
Fire Services Commissioner Craig Lapsley says the state is in a good position to deal with any potential fires.
He says every fire that has started in the past couple of days has been quick to be managed and controlled.
Mr Lapsley says the "Elvis" aircraft is also back in action after undergoing repairs.


%uFFFD ABC 2013
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Quoting Terradad:


ISON is already that bright?!?

Nice picture - thanks!
by nov it suppose to be 15 times brighter than the full moon
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Quoting ncstorm:
The 00z NAM went just a tad south with the snowfall
00z




18z


Good...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7507
The 00z NAM went just a tad south with the snowfall
00z




18z
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.