Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

2012: Earth's 10th warmest year on record, and warmest with a La Niña
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:04 PM GMT on January 15, 2013 +36
It was another top-ten hottest year on record during 2012, which ranked as the 10th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said today. NASA rated 2012 as the 9th warmest on record. Including 2012, all 12 years to date in the 21st century (2001–2012) rank among the 14 warmest in the 133-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century--1998--was warmer than 2012. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global land temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 9th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. Following the two wettest years on record (2010 and 2011), 2012 saw near average precipitation on balance across the globe. In a NASA Press Release today, climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said, "One more year of numbers isn't in itself significant. What matters is this decade is warmer than the last decade, and that decade was warmer than the decade before. The planet is warming. The reason it's warming is because we are pumping increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."


Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2012. The continental U.S. and the eastern 2/3 of Canada were Earth's warmest regions, relative to average. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Global extremes of 2012
Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera has put together a list of global extremes for 2012, and maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here, then, is Maximiliano's list of 2012 global extremes:

Hottest temperature in the world in 2012: 53.6°C (128.5°F) in Sulaibiya, Kuwait, July 31
Coldest temperature in the world in 2012: -84.2°C (-119.6°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, September 16
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Birdsville, Australia, January 7
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -63.1°C (-81.6°F) at Summit, Greenland, December 28
Highest annual precipitation: Cherrapunji, India, 13364 mm (526")
Lowest annual precipitation:  Several stations in Southern Egypt saw not even a trace of precipitation

All-time world record warm minimum temperature tied: 41.7°C (107°F), Death Valley (USA), July 12
All-time world record highest 24-hour average temperature: 47.5°C (117.5°F), Death Valley (USA), July 11-12
World record high temperature in an island: 51.8°C (125.2°F), Failaka Island, Kuwait, July 31
World record high temperature on a coast: 52.1°C (125.8°F), Kuwait City, Kuwait, July 31
World record highest temperature with rain: 46.1°C (115°F), Needles (USA), August 13
World record for lowest humidity with rain: 11%, Needles (USA), August 13


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of California and Arizona taken at 1:25 pm PDT August 13, 2012. Developing thunderstorms surround Needles, CA, and the line of clouds to the southwest of the city would develop into a thunderstorm that brought rain to the city at 4 pm PDT, at a temperature of 115°F and a relative humidity of 11%--both world records. Image credit: NASA.

New country and territory hottest temperature records set in 2012
Five nations and two territories tied or set their hottest temperature readings in recorded history during 2012; no coldest all-time national records were set. For comparison, Seven countries and one territory set all-time hottest temperature records in 2011, and one nation set an all-time coldest temperature record. The most all-time national heat records in a year occurred in 2010, when twenty nations and one territory did so. Here are the 2012 national heat records:

Morocco recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 17, 2012 in Marrakech, when the mercury hit 49.6°C (121.3°F).

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31, 2012 in Sulaibya, when the mercury hit 53.6°C (128.5°F). This surpasses the highest undisputed temperature ever recorded in Asia--the 53.5°C (128.3°F) measured at Moen Jo-Daro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010. The only higher temperature ever measured in Asia was a 54°C (129.2°F) reading from Tirat Tsvi, Israel on June 22, 1942. The Israeli Met Office pursued an investigation of the record in 2012 (prompted by an inquiry from the WMO and wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt), and concluded that the record was valid. However, they have refused to make public the details leading to their conclusions, and until they do so, the record remains suspect.

Moldova recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 7, 2012 in Falesti, when the mercury hit 42.4°C (108.3°F).

Montenegro tied its hottest temperature on record on August 8, 2012 in Danilovgrad, when the mercury hit 44.8°C (112.6°F).

The Czech Republic recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 20, 2012 in Dobrichovice, when the mercury hit 40.4°C (104.7°F).

The territory of Hong Kong tied its hottest temperature on record on July 21 on Ping Chau Island, when the mercury hit 37.7°C (99.9°F).

The Sprska Republic set a new territorial high of 42.8°C (109°F) on August 24 at Visegrad.

New U.S. State Records set in 2012
New state record high: South Carolina, at  Columbia University WS and Johnston, 45.0°C (113°F), June 29
State record high temperature tied: Colorado, at Las Animas, 45.6°C (114°F), June 23

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of national heat and cold records on wunderground.com's extremes page, where all of this year's national heat records are updated. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of these national weather records.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out close to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. During 2012, a weak La Niña event was present through March. Warming of the Eastern Pacific waters in the spring brought on neutral conditions, which lasted for the remainder of the year. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present, surpassing the previous record set just the year before, in 2011. Global temperatures were 0.09°C (0.16°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and 2012 would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead of a La Niña, as seen by looking at the year-to-date global temperature plot for 2012.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2012, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Earth's warmest years tend to occur when an El Niño is present; cooler years occur when a La Niña is occurring. A La Niña (El Niño) year is defined here as occurring when the first three months of a calendar year meet the La Niña (El Niño) criteria as defined by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 34 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. Through 2010, the three major research groups that maintain global surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (maintained by UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took these five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. The known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, and the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists agree that human activity is the primary cause of increasing global temperatures in recent decades.


Figure 4. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.


Video 1. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide have continued to warm the planet over the past 16 years. However, a persistent myth has emerged in the mainstream media challenging this. Denial of this fact may have been the favorite climate contrarian myth of 2012. Video courtesy of skepticalscience.com.

Top Ten Weather Lists for 2012

My Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

NCDC's Top Ten Annual Weather/Climate Events

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Jeff Masters
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801. LargoFl 10:24 AM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Good Morning Folks!!..the blogs clubhouse coffee is perking..help your self to a cup or two and relax for aa few...have a Great day everone!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
802. LargoFl 10:26 AM GMT on January 17, 2013    
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

VAZ025-036>038-050-503-504-171645-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.130117T1500Z-130118T0600Z/
AUGUSTA-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-ORANGE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY
343 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET THIS MORNING...
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL END THIS
EVENING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED ALONG WITH POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
803. LargoFl 10:35 AM GMT on January 17, 2013    
We will see what happens today huh.......................Winter Storm to Impact Portions of Southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic, Including Washington, D.C. Metro

Snow, heavy at times, will develop on Thursday from northern Georgia to southern West Virginia into northern Virginia and southern Maryland, including the Washington, D.C. metro area. The greatest snow accumulations (8+ inches) will be found in the high terrain. Meanwhile, snowfall of 2 to 6 inches is forecast for the Washington, D.C. area, greatest in the southern metro
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804. AussieStorm 11:06 AM GMT on January 17, 2013    
I'm seeing a developing circulation spin in the Gulf Of Carpentaria, especially on RADAR.
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805. WxGeekVA 11:43 AM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting LargoFl:
We will see what happens today huh.......................Winter Storm to Impact Portions of Southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic, Including Washington, D.C. Metro

Snow, heavy at times, will develop on Thursday from northern Georgia to southern West Virginia into northern Virginia and southern Maryland, including the Washington, D.C. metro area. The greatest snow accumulations (8+ inches) will be found in the high terrain. Meanwhile, snowfall of 2 to 6 inches is forecast for the Washington, D.C. area, greatest in the southern metro


DC metro here. Looks like 1"-2" here, nothing to panic and go to the store about. Like usual, we get missed by the best snow.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323
806. LargoFl 11:52 AM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting WxGeekVA:


DC metro here. Looks like 1"-2" here, nothing to panic and go to the store about. Like usual, we get missed by the best snow.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


DC metro here. Looks like 1"-2" here, nothing to panic and go to the store about. Like usual, we get missed by the best snow.
well keep watching your local warnings ok, you know sometimes these predictions can change in a few hours..good luck up there
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807. LargoFl 11:54 AM GMT on January 17, 2013    
RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

VAZ026-029-039-040-WVZ505-506-171645-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0001.130117T1500Z-130118T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.130117T1500Z-130118T0600Z/
ROCKINGHAM-PAGE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISONBURG...WASHINGTON...
CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
343 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING
TO SNOW BY MIDDAY. SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED ALONG WITH POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
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808. LargoFl 11:56 AM GMT on January 17, 2013    
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809. LargoFl 11:57 AM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Texas warming up today...............
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810. PensacolaDoug 11:57 AM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Mornin all. I'll have a cup Largo! 39.4F and sprinkling down on da Bayou Grande at the moment.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4828
811. icmoore 12:16 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Good morning everybody. The biggest punch we should see from this cold front in Madeira Beach is wind, not so much rain. I just made sure everything is secure outside and now is coffee time. Earlier estimates were the line should move through quickly around noon here.

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

High Surf Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory
Beach Hazards Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook

7-DAY FORECAST
Today Showers likely, mainly between 10am and 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Windy, with a south wind 7 to 12 mph becoming west 20 to 30 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight A 30 percent chance of showers before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. West northwest wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Northeast wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northeast wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph
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812. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:35 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25347
813. Chapelhill 12:37 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
It's going to be a fun weather day in N Carolina. Heavy rain changing to some heavy snow --maybe even some thunder snow this evening!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
...IN MY 14+ YEARS FORECASTING
AT RAH...HAVE NOT SEEN THIS MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKE PLACE SINCE POSSIBLY JANUARY 2000...GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW BAND TO OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...POSSIBLY NEAR OF JUST WEST OF THE TRIANGLE. IN ADDITION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME LIGHTING OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BANDS... SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

Back in that Jan.2000 event, Chapel Hill got 21" in about 16 hours.
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814. ncstorm 12:38 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
No snow here..:(
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
815. aislinnpaps 12:38 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Good morning, everyone, evening, Aussie. It's so nice to be waking up at the time I'm usually heading out the door. I've a workshop to go to today. And despite all the freezing temps, today is the first day I'll have to go out and defrost the car so I can see to drive.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438
816. FtMyersgal 12:40 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
456 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-172200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
456 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL
AREAS FROM LEE COUNTY TO PINELLAS COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

OGLESBY




Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1004
817. AussieStorm 12:58 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Mornin all. I'll have a cup Largo! 39.4F and sprinkling down on da Bayou Grande at the moment.


Getting a bit chilli over there mate, You wearing a Jacket yet?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13361
818. AussieStorm 1:07 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone, evening, Aussie. It's so nice to be waking up at the time I'm usually heading out the door. I've a workshop to go to today. And despite all the freezing temps, today is the first day I'll have to go out and defrost the car so I can see to drive.


Enjoy your freezing cold day as much as you can. Rug up against the cold. I on the other hand will probably be at the beach when you all are hitting the pillow. It's going to be 106°F here tomorrow(Friday), but with a southerly change in the late afternoon or evening and it's forecast to bring storms. I just hope for none when we're driving back from up the coast.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13361
819. PensacolaDoug 1:08 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting AussieStorm:


Getting a bit chilli over there mate, You wearing a Jacket yet?



Walkin out the door in the next two mins. Yes. It's cold and very cloudy but no snow. ratz....
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4828
820. AussieStorm 1:14 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Walkin out the door in the next two mins. Yes. It's cold and very cloudy but no snow. ratz....

Keep dreaming mate, one day you'll wake up and everything will be all white. But I just hope it's not flour.

Enjoy your day. I'm off to bed.
Good night PCD
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13361
821. ILwthrfan 1:23 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
120 hr GFS 5:30 am EST update



84 hr NAM 5:00 am EST update

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822. AussieStorm 1:28 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
LOL at the GFS....

Come on, 3 at one time. good golly Miss Molly.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13361
823. kwgirl 2:02 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Good morning all. Thanks for the coffee Largo. Nice to see a man make a pot once in a while! I woke up at 6am this morning and when I stepped out for the paper I realized it had rained! Yippee! Looking forward to the front to move through the Keys this evening. We have a 25% chance of rain today and hopefully it will be dry enough this weekend so I can mow the yard. The grass thinks it is summer. The only thing keeping it from really taking off is the lack of rain.

I like seeing all the weather bulletins you post Largo. And whether it is rain, or snow, the main thing is that precipitation is falling in areas that need it.

Everyone have a great day! I will be in and out of the blog again today.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530
825. washingtonian115 2:11 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting LargoFl:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

VAZ025-036>038-050-503-504-171645-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.130117T1500Z-130118T0600Z/
AUGUSTA-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-ORANGE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY
343 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET THIS MORNING...
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL END THIS
EVENING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED ALONG WITH POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM.

&&

$$
We're hardly going to get any.The NWS had my hopes up.But now it looks like we're barely going to get nothing.We'll be lucky if we get a inch.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10678
826. washingtonian115 2:17 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting stormchaser43:
Not quite sure what the 06Z NAM is smoking. But then again, who am I to judge.



It's smoking alot.All of the interesting totals will stay south of the city.Once agin nature has teased us.When will this madness end?.I'm tired of seeing sissy flakes.Now I know how a guy feels when he's at the strip club...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10678
827. Barefootontherocks 2:17 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Thanks, Levi32 and TomTaylor for sharing your thoughts with the blog last eve. Good to see your young minds tossing honest thoughts around.

Whole lot humans don't know - undiscovered, unrevealed, however you want to describe it. Perhaps someday mankind will better understand what's now explained as "entropy" and perhaps science will even re-examine the atmosphere's systemic character.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16340
828. yqt1001 2:19 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Today the wind will increase to 30km/h and with the high of -16C the windchill will be -34C. It has been a long time since it's been this cold....
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1184
831. weatherh98 2:22 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
I woke up at 4:30 for snow that didnt happen!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6093
832. washingtonian115 2:25 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting stormchaser43:


As hard as I spent laughing at your analogy, I must admit it is SOOOOOO true!! I am sick of being teased, too! I cannot believe this! That in such a short amount of time the momentum has shifted so far away from us. Sissy flakes go away. I'd rather have sunshine THAN YOU!!!
If it's gonna be like that we might as well have the sun back out then -_-....
Quoting weatherh98:
I woke up at 4:30 for snow that didnt happen!
Join the crew...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10678
833. FtMyersgal 2:26 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting yqt1001:
Today the wind will increase to 30km/h and with the high of -16C the windchill will be -34C. It has been a long time since it's been this cold....


Where are you yqt?
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1004
834. yqt1001 2:28 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Where are you yqt?


Thunder Bay, Ontario
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1184
835. washingtonian115 2:39 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
The blog is dead...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10678
838. washingtonian115 2:45 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting stormchaser43:

I'm here, washingtonian115. I'm here. Hoping the heavy snow band shifts back now like initially thought. But I'm losing hope. And I'm angry!!!
I'm angry and loosing hope to.i'm hoping for a last minute shift north before all is said and done.So we can at least get 4 to 5 inches like what was forecast at first.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10678
839. LargoFl 2:53 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO
10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TRI-STATE AREA...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN ITS WAKE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 MPH. SOME OF THESE GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE
STRONG GUSTS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
840. LargoFl 2:56 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
good morning folks!..a drizzly kind of rain here now, enough to wet the streets and breezy too, front isnt here yet...those up north remember this snow thing is an all day event for you folks and I think yesterday they said it would be in the afternoon for much of the snow to really start falling..good luck to those wishing for snow..me im happy with the falling temps here..glad to get back to normal around my area.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
841. LargoFl 2:58 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

VAZ026-029-039-040-WVZ505-506-172215-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.130117T1500Z-130118T0400Z/
ROCKINGHAM-PAGE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISONBURG...WASHINGTON...
CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
906 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING
TO SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED ALONG WITH POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
842. ncstorm 2:59 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
JMA Model


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
843. LargoFl 2:59 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
844. LargoFl 3:01 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
845. washingtonian115 3:03 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting ncstorm:
JMA Model


I keep seeing more let downs..
Quoting LargoFl:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

VAZ026-029-039-040-WVZ505-506-172215-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.130117T1500Z-130118T0400Z/
ROCKINGHAM-PAGE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISONBURG...WASHINGTON...
CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
906 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING
TO SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED ALONG WITH POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&
i hope we get those 2-4 inches..here's some hope though...

"The cold air at the back of the storm could help lift the percipitation nothward some more esepically after dark in the metro area".
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10678
846. LargoFl 3:03 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* TIMING...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS...AND 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SNOW BANDS.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE MANY
TREES TO FALL AND PULL DOWN POWER LINES. BRIEF PERIODS OF
BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TRAVEL PROBLEMS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON...FALLING TO THE
LOWER 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
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847. ncstorm 3:14 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting washingtonian115:
I keep seeing more let downs.. i hope we get those 2-4 inches..here's some hope though...

"The cold air at the back of the storm could help lift the percipitation nothward some more esepically after dark in the metro area".


I said last night the 6z model would show me in the rain slot and it definetely did exactly what I didnt want..but you never know Wash..these types of snow events are really hard to predict..I guess you wont know until it starts snowing and finishes..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
848. RitaEvac 3:14 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
The system people were posting about last week about a new invest in the Atlantic.....well, it's out there on satellite, and it's spinning.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8912
849. washingtonian115 3:16 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting ncstorm:


I said last night the 6z model would show me in the rain slot and it definetely did exactly what I didnt want..but you never know Wash..these types of snow events are really hard to predict..I guess you wont know until it starts snowing and finishes..
It's looking like the bulk will stay south.Especially if you look on local radar.

I can't beleive I got excited yesterday.I made a fool out of myself for getting so happy...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10678
850. Minnemike 3:17 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
refreshing to see adult exchanges between people who's beliefs differ, in light of the same information.
very refreshing!
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1257
851. FtMyersgal 3:18 PM GMT on January 17, 2013    
Quoting yqt1001:


Thunder Bay, Ontario


Thank you for the information yqt! Sounds like an interesting place to visit.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1004

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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