2012: Earth's 10th warmest year on record, and warmest with a La Niña
It was another top-ten hottest year on record during 2012, which ranked as the 10th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said today. NASA rated 2012 as the 9th warmest on record. Including 2012, all 12 years to date in the 21st century (2001–2012) rank among the 14 warmest in the 133-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century--1998--was warmer than 2012. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global land temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 9th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. Following the two wettest years on record (2010 and 2011), 2012 saw near average precipitation on balance across the globe. In a NASA Press Release today, climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said, "One more year of numbers isn't in itself significant. What matters is this decade is warmer than the last decade, and that decade was warmer than the decade before. The planet is warming. The reason it's warming is because we are pumping increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."
Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2012. The continental U.S. and the eastern 2/3 of Canada were Earth's warmest regions, relative to average. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
Global extremes of 2012
Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera has put together a list of global extremes for 2012, and maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here, then, is Maximiliano's list of 2012 global extremes:
Hottest temperature in the world in 2012: 53.6°C (128.5°F) in Sulaibiya, Kuwait, July 31
Coldest temperature in the world in 2012: -84.2°C (-119.6°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, September 16
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Birdsville, Australia, January 7
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -63.1°C (-81.6°F) at Summit, Greenland, December 28
Highest annual precipitation: Cherrapunji, India, 13364 mm (526")
Lowest annual precipitation: Several stations in Southern Egypt saw not even a trace of precipitation
All-time world record warm minimum temperature tied: 41.7°C (107°F), Death Valley (USA), July 12
All-time world record highest 24-hour average temperature: 47.5°C (117.5°F), Death Valley (USA), July 11-12
World record high temperature in an island: 51.8°C (125.2°F), Failaka Island, Kuwait, July 31
World record high temperature on a coast: 52.1°C (125.8°F), Kuwait City, Kuwait, July 31
World record highest temperature with rain: 46.1°C (115°F), Needles (USA), August 13
World record for lowest humidity with rain: 11%, Needles (USA), August 13
Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of California and Arizona taken at 1:25 pm PDT August 13, 2012. Developing thunderstorms surround Needles, CA, and the line of clouds to the southwest of the city would develop into a thunderstorm that brought rain to the city at 4 pm PDT, at a temperature of 115°F and a relative humidity of 11%--both world records. Image credit: NASA.
New country and territory hottest temperature records set in 2012
Five nations and two territories tied or set their hottest temperature readings in recorded history during 2012; no coldest all-time national records were set. For comparison, Seven countries and one territory set all-time hottest temperature records in 2011, and one nation set an all-time coldest temperature record. The most all-time national heat records in a year occurred in 2010, when twenty nations and one territory did so. Here are the 2012 national heat records:
Morocco recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 17, 2012 in Marrakech, when the mercury hit 49.6°C (121.3°F).
Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31, 2012 in Sulaibya, when the mercury hit 53.6°C (128.5°F). This surpasses the highest undisputed temperature ever recorded in Asia--the 53.5°C (128.3°F) measured at Moen Jo-Daro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010. The only higher temperature ever measured in Asia was a 54°C (129.2°F) reading from Tirat Tsvi, Israel on June 22, 1942. The Israeli Met Office pursued an investigation of the record in 2012 (prompted by an inquiry from the WMO and wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt), and concluded that the record was valid. However, they have refused to make public the details leading to their conclusions, and until they do so, the record remains suspect.
Moldova recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 7, 2012 in Falesti, when the mercury hit 42.4°C (108.3°F).
Montenegro tied its hottest temperature on record on August 8, 2012 in Danilovgrad, when the mercury hit 44.8°C (112.6°F).
The Czech Republic recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 20, 2012 in Dobrichovice, when the mercury hit 40.4°C (104.7°F).
The territory of Hong Kong tied its hottest temperature on record on July 21 on Ping Chau Island, when the mercury hit 37.7°C (99.9°F).
The Sprska Republic set a new territorial high of 42.8°C (109°F) on August 24 at Visegrad.
New U.S. State Records set in 2012
New state record high: South Carolina, at Columbia University WS and Johnston, 45.0°C (113°F), June 29
State record high temperature tied: Colorado, at Las Animas, 45.6°C (114°F), June 23
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of national heat and cold records on wunderground.com's extremes page, where all of this year's national heat records are updated. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of these national weather records.
How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out close to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. During 2012, a weak La Niña event was present through March. Warming of the Eastern Pacific waters in the spring brought on neutral conditions, which lasted for the remainder of the year. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present, surpassing the previous record set just the year before, in 2011. Global temperatures were 0.09°C (0.16°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and 2012 would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead of a La Niña, as seen by looking at the year-to-date global temperature plot for 2012.
Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2012, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Earth's warmest years tend to occur when an El Niño is present; cooler years occur when a La Niña is occurring. A La Niña (El Niño) year is defined here as occurring when the first three months of a calendar year meet the La Niña (El Niño) criteria as defined by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 34 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. Through 2010, the three major research groups that maintain global surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (maintained by UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took these five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. The known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, and the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists agree that human activity is the primary cause of increasing global temperatures in recent decades.
Figure 4. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.
Video 1. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide have continued to warm the planet over the past 16 years. However, a persistent myth has emerged in the mainstream media challenging this. Denial of this fact may have been the favorite climate contrarian myth of 2012. Video courtesy of skepticalscience.com.
Top Ten Weather Lists for 2012
My Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.
NCDC's Top Ten Annual Weather/Climate Events
Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.
A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.
TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.
Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Burning Fuel Particles Do More Damage to Climate Than Thought, Study Says
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
Published: January 15, 2013
The tiny black particles released into the atmosphere by burning fuels are far more powerful agents of global warming than had previously been estimated, some of the world’s most prominent atmospheric scientists reported in a study issued on Tuesday.
... three times the previously estimated rate.
Ok, I see where we veered off. Sure, it's rather obvious that anomalies in one parameter can propagate and cause anomalies in other parameters.
However, I'm not convinced that blocking at 60N and northward is likely to have a significant impact on TC tracks at 40N and southward. A study could certainly be done on it.
The entropy comment....well, change in entropy "dS" is dQ/T, so a change in the total heat content of the system and a change in the temperature of the system can both affect the entropy, and an increase in temperature lowers it, while an increase in total heat content raises it. I am not educated on the trends in entropy of the Earth-atmosphere system.
Given how amplified the pattern has been over the lower 48 the last week or so, I am having a lot of difficulty believing such a dramatic upswing in temperatures. Also supported by the local NWS forecast for my area.
There is air pollution in China. We get it. How many days in a row are you going to post about it?
Levi, you have already spent more time obtaining a formal education than I have were it concerns science related studies. Therefore I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?
I just posted that black carbon soot is three times as problematic for global warming than had previously been reported. That was a photo of people breathing black carbon soot. See post 701
Gotcha.
Crash
How do you know that they are ?? Pic could have been taken anywhere in the past ..
Until someone complains about it. I think many people have that handle on there ignore list cause of there constant monomania on that one subject. I being one.
We know the Chinese Govt is killing it's own people by severely polluting the air they breathe, Call it's govt sanctioned genocide.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0119 PM HEAVY RAIN MARION 35.68N 82.01W
01/15/2013 E0.00 INCH MCDOWELL NC LAW ENFORCEMENT
*** 1 FATAL *** TREE WAS UPROOTED IN SATURATED
SOIL...FALLING ACROSS TWO VEHICLES. ONE OCCUPANT WAS
KILLED.
&&
$$
MCAVOY
Link
This pic taken by a commercial pilot shows the smoke plume from the Wambelong fire in Coonabarabran. We continue to think of those in western NSW still doing it tough as southern Australia faces its fourth burst of extreme heat and severe fire dangers from today. Courtesy of The Weather Channel Australia
A landslide closed Hwy 441 in Swain Co.
Everything is very wet here. Looking forward to the SNOW!!!!!!!!!
Hope I didn't jinx it.
Sorry, but if I have to answer this, it must be complete, because if I answer it in a short fashion, it leaves too much of my views to speculation.
CO2 has an infrared absorption band at about 15 micrometers. The Earth's surface emission spectrum peaks at about 10 micrometers and significantly encompasses 15 micrometer waves. Thus, CO2 does absorb energy output from the Earth's surface. Thus, changes in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere have an effect on the total internal energy of the atmosphere, which leads to an effect on the temperature of the atmosphere due to its limited ability to expand its volume.
However, everything changes everything in physics. If I decide to breath 10% faster for the rest of my life, that would affect the temperature of the atmosphere. The question is always how significant is the effect. In the case of my breathing, it is essentially zero. It is an amazingly complicated question to ask how much CO2 affects the atmosphere's temperature, given how much variation there is in the Earth's climate already, and how many other different kinds of gases exist that can absorb IR radiation. We attempt to model all of these variables with global climate models, with a certain degree of success so far.
However, these models are incomplete, and not enough time has yet passed to properly evaluate these models, given that the Earth's major natural atmospheric cycles can have periods on the order of 30, 60, or 100 years.
I, personally, am an advocate of most of the policies that governments would like to enforce to stop human emission of gases that may cause the Earth to warm. Most of these are great and necessary things to do anyway, like clean the air and water.
Where I still branch from many is the degree of alarmism with which the AGW theory is pushed, and especially the degree of fervent certainty with which the theory is preached, when so little time has actually passed since models were developed for this purpose. In my personal opinion, verification of the predictions of these models and proponents of the AGW theory cannot be proclaimed yet.
Of course, it is also foolish to wait and wait for "verification" if a potential disaster looms, right? Sure, and since human emissions cause other known adverse effects anyway, like pollution, it makes sense to reduce them anyway.
However, the science of this issue has become hopelessly politically contaminated, and nobody can say otherwise. The result has been a barrage of opinions and proposed policy changes by many people that could significantly change society if fully implemented. Unfortunately, this theory has been latched onto by those who would use it as leverage for their own gains, and similarly, those who do not believe the theory (or wish not to), e.g., oil companies, have done the same in the opposite fashion.
Given how muddy this scientific issue has become, I have decided to independently observe it, and hope to cultivate a measured, objective view of this theory as I scientifically mature with time, drawing no solid conclusions just yet.
And that is my 2 cents.
Please read the Rules of the Road before commenting any further.
3. No monomania.
Here's the link if you're too lazy to scroll down.
http://wiki.wunderground.com/index.php/WunderBlog s_-_Dr._Masters%27_Blog_Content_Rules
Posted by The Knoxville Journal on January 16th, 2013
U.S. Highway 441 between Gatlinburg and Cherokee, NC will be closed indefinitely since a 200-foot portion of the roadbed washed away at approximately 9:40 a.m.Wednesday Jan. 16.
The asphalt crumbled and fell some 1,000 feet down the side of the mountain after more than eight inches of rain fell since Sunday.
Oh my, there coming back, blasted NW winds. Not good for the big fire near Coonabarabran. I've been there, beautiful place.
ISON is already that bright?!?
Nice picture - thanks!
I appreciate your answer, Levi and I do not disagree with what you are saying. I am not trying to be facetious when I say this, but I know of no "proper" way to say this. .. You used a lot of words to not answer my question.
Maybe I need to hire Christopher Monckton...as my agent! Somehow he (and/or an individual named Tom Nelson he apparently relies upon for his rock-solid information) has apparently negotiated a 10K increase in honorarium for a keynote lecture I'm giving at the Sports Turf Managers Association (STMA) Annual Meeting on Friday. Given that I agreed to do the event pro bono (which the Viscount/Lord/whatever and his trusted information purveyors could have confirmed directly with the STMA) he must clearly be privy to information that neither the STMA and I have. But getting fact right never really was one of the Viscount's strengths, was it?
A little research can go a long way toward preventing the spread of, er, manure...
00z
18z
Good...
Now now Nea, No need for name calling, that's kindergarten stuff.
I wonder when PalmBeachWeather will come off his ban, I hope it's soon.
So to keep this post weather related. I'll post this.....
Fire authorities on alert as temperatures climb
Fire crews are fighting a grass fire at Jancourt south of Camperdown in Victoria's south west.
About five tankers are at the scene of the fire and water-bombing aircraft have been called in.
The fire is smaller than five hectares.
Cloudy conditions and cooler temperatures earlier Thursday have helped firefighters who are on alert across Victoria.
Temperatures are now rising into the 40s in the north west, but there have been no major fires reported.
Total Fire Bans remain in place in the Wimmera, the North Central, Central and South West districts.
Victorians are being urged to stay on alert and keep abreast of fire updates.
Severe fire danger is forecast for most of the state.
Authorities are warning any fires that break out will move very quickly.
Premier Ted Baillieu says Victoria is extremely dry and the risk of fires is significant.
"If there is a fire, then the prospect of that fire running fast and running intensively is also significant," he said.
"It's obviously important that everybody take full measure of the circumstances they find themselves in, pay attention to all communications, and I say all communications."
Fire Services Commissioner Craig Lapsley says the state is in a good position to deal with any potential fires.
He says every fire that has started in the past couple of days has been quick to be managed and controlled.
Mr Lapsley says the "Elvis" aircraft is also back in action after undergoing repairs.
%uFFFD ABC 2013
I was thinking that PBW is a woman. I thought that I saw where PBW had mentioned this, but I may be wrong.
If you've ever been on this road, it's very pretty, but it's also very scary driving on it. Surprised we haven't heard about more of these up that way...
I just used that as a more generic term. Maybe I should of said he/she.
I only just learnt VR46L is a lady.
Yes, you are correct she is indeed a Woman.........
365 days in every year...
But seriously, it is not the content wxmod posts, but how frequently he/she posts it. It does get annoying but I am being nice and not trying not to use my ignore feature unless I really have to. I unignored anyone on it on New Years Eve.
Golden hockey sticks cost money...
The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars
Valencia College Lecture and Book Signing
Valencia College
Orlando, FL (January 17, 2013)
Publicity: Event Flyer
The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars
STMA Annual meeting 2013Lecture and Book Signing
Sports Turf Managers Association Annual Meeting
Daytona, FL (January 18, 2013)
Publicity: Conference Program
James Adamski, who is organizing Mann's talk at Valencia College, declined to disclose how much the college is spending on Mann's speaker fees. Adamski confirmed in a telephone call that he worked out a financial agreement with Mann, but now claims he doesn't know or doesn't remember specifically what is contained in those financial agreements.
While others are going to get snow, it will remain relatively dry and get pretty cold next week.
That's because your question cannot be directly answered in a few words.
I can neither give you a solid "yes" or a solid "no" to your question. The only way to approach your question without misrepresenting myself was to give an overview of my current thought process on the issue. A part of your question is a "yes" (does CO2 affect the atmospheric temperature?), but another part of your question is a "can't know for sure yet" (does it affect the atmospheric temperature beyond natural variation?).
Now if I had said that last part with no context, it likely would have lead to many readers assuming many things about my views. Thus, I clarified in advance.
This is so close to normal I better just quit whining and be happy I am not up to my ankles in snow or in the path of that arctic blast. I have no snow removal stuff or winter attire. End of ramble..... :p
As has been said only about a thousand times here, even if Al Gore and James Hansen and Michael Mann and Jeff Masters were proven to be the most evil, despicable, manipulative, dishonest, hypocritical money-grubbing people in the history of the planet, it wouldn't change one iota the fact that the globe is rapidly warming. Given that, it's difficult to understand why contrarians spend so much time and effort trying to demonize them. Unless, of course, they've got nothing else. Which is, now that I think about it, a distinct possibility.
Anyway, speaking of hockey sticks:
That's an awful lot of validation, no?
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1006 PM EST Wednesday Jan 16 2013
Synopsis...
a cold front will continue to drift slowly through the region
into tonight. Low pressure is forecast develop over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico and move northeast along the front on Thursday. As the low
moves off the North Carolina coast Thursday night...the weather will
be drier and seasonably cool for the weekend.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
as of 10 PM...over the course of the evening I have been monitoring
trends in the model guidance and updating the forecast
accordingly. Two trends have occurred...guidance is wetter and
slight quicker with cooling temperatures late tomorrow afternoon and
evening. In short...the potential for heavy snow has increased
across the NC mountains...remaining around the same as the previous
package east.
You did give an excellent assessment of your sentiments on the topic of the AGWT, but you did not answer the question that I put before you.
I will ask the same question again. ... I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?
Perhaps my question is too ambiguous? I can try to rephrase it, if you wish. You are quite free to decline answering the question and we can leave it at that. You are not obligated, by any means, to answer it.
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