2012: Earth's 10th warmest year on record, and warmest with a La Niña

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:04 PM GMT on January 15, 2013

Share this Blog
36
+

It was another top-ten hottest year on record during 2012, which ranked as the 10th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said today. NASA rated 2012 as the 9th warmest on record. Including 2012, all 12 years to date in the 21st century (2001–2012) rank among the 14 warmest in the 133-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century--1998--was warmer than 2012. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global land temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 9th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. Following the two wettest years on record (2010 and 2011), 2012 saw near average precipitation on balance across the globe. In a NASA Press Release today, climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said, "One more year of numbers isn't in itself significant. What matters is this decade is warmer than the last decade, and that decade was warmer than the decade before. The planet is warming. The reason it's warming is because we are pumping increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."


Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2012. The continental U.S. and the eastern 2/3 of Canada were Earth's warmest regions, relative to average. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Global extremes of 2012
Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera has put together a list of global extremes for 2012, and maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here, then, is Maximiliano's list of 2012 global extremes:

Hottest temperature in the world in 2012: 53.6°C (128.5°F) in Sulaibiya, Kuwait, July 31
Coldest temperature in the world in 2012: -84.2°C (-119.6°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, September 16
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Birdsville, Australia, January 7
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -63.1°C (-81.6°F) at Summit, Greenland, December 28
Highest annual precipitation: Cherrapunji, India, 13364 mm (526")
Lowest annual precipitation:  Several stations in Southern Egypt saw not even a trace of precipitation

All-time world record warm minimum temperature tied: 41.7°C (107°F), Death Valley (USA), July 12
All-time world record highest 24-hour average temperature: 47.5°C (117.5°F), Death Valley (USA), July 11-12
World record high temperature in an island: 51.8°C (125.2°F), Failaka Island, Kuwait, July 31
World record high temperature on a coast: 52.1°C (125.8°F), Kuwait City, Kuwait, July 31
World record highest temperature with rain: 46.1°C (115°F), Needles (USA), August 13
World record for lowest humidity with rain: 11%, Needles (USA), August 13


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of California and Arizona taken at 1:25 pm PDT August 13, 2012. Developing thunderstorms surround Needles, CA, and the line of clouds to the southwest of the city would develop into a thunderstorm that brought rain to the city at 4 pm PDT, at a temperature of 115°F and a relative humidity of 11%--both world records. Image credit: NASA.

New country and territory hottest temperature records set in 2012
Five nations and two territories tied or set their hottest temperature readings in recorded history during 2012; no coldest all-time national records were set. For comparison, Seven countries and one territory set all-time hottest temperature records in 2011, and one nation set an all-time coldest temperature record. The most all-time national heat records in a year occurred in 2010, when twenty nations and one territory did so. Here are the 2012 national heat records:

Morocco recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 17, 2012 in Marrakech, when the mercury hit 49.6°C (121.3°F).

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31, 2012 in Sulaibya, when the mercury hit 53.6°C (128.5°F). This surpasses the highest undisputed temperature ever recorded in Asia--the 53.5°C (128.3°F) measured at Moen Jo-Daro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010. The only higher temperature ever measured in Asia was a 54°C (129.2°F) reading from Tirat Tsvi, Israel on June 22, 1942. The Israeli Met Office pursued an investigation of the record in 2012 (prompted by an inquiry from the WMO and wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt), and concluded that the record was valid. However, they have refused to make public the details leading to their conclusions, and until they do so, the record remains suspect.

Moldova recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 7, 2012 in Falesti, when the mercury hit 42.4°C (108.3°F).

Montenegro tied its hottest temperature on record on August 8, 2012 in Danilovgrad, when the mercury hit 44.8°C (112.6°F).

The Czech Republic recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 20, 2012 in Dobrichovice, when the mercury hit 40.4°C (104.7°F).

The territory of Hong Kong tied its hottest temperature on record on July 21 on Ping Chau Island, when the mercury hit 37.7°C (99.9°F).

The Sprska Republic set a new territorial high of 42.8°C (109°F) on August 24 at Visegrad.

New U.S. State Records set in 2012
New state record high: South Carolina, at  Columbia University WS and Johnston, 45.0°C (113°F), June 29
State record high temperature tied: Colorado, at Las Animas, 45.6°C (114°F), June 23

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of national heat and cold records on wunderground.com's extremes page, where all of this year's national heat records are updated. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of these national weather records.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out close to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. During 2012, a weak La Niña event was present through March. Warming of the Eastern Pacific waters in the spring brought on neutral conditions, which lasted for the remainder of the year. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present, surpassing the previous record set just the year before, in 2011. Global temperatures were 0.09°C (0.16°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and 2012 would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead of a La Niña, as seen by looking at the year-to-date global temperature plot for 2012.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2012, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Earth's warmest years tend to occur when an El Niño is present; cooler years occur when a La Niña is occurring. A La Niña (El Niño) year is defined here as occurring when the first three months of a calendar year meet the La Niña (El Niño) criteria as defined by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 34 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. Through 2010, the three major research groups that maintain global surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (maintained by UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took these five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. The known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, and the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists agree that human activity is the primary cause of increasing global temperatures in recent decades.


Figure 4. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.


Video 1. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide have continued to warm the planet over the past 16 years. However, a persistent myth has emerged in the mainstream media challenging this. Denial of this fact may have been the favorite climate contrarian myth of 2012. Video courtesy of skepticalscience.com.

Top Ten Weather Lists for 2012

My Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

NCDC's Top Ten Annual Weather/Climate Events

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 233 - 183

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Quoting PedleyCA:
I'm just happy to get back to normal from the colder side. Don't need any extremes of either fashion. Winter here so the last 5 days have been way cooler than normal for us in SoCalif. Whole West is way cooler than we want it to be and it is messing with the Citrus crop and other produce. Not good.
Good to see that you are not roasting over there where you are. 86 is a nice temp. But I guess that depends on who you ask. Have a Nice Day over there.
Hope I got that right....


Yeah 86 is a nice temp. Next two days it's going to be hotter. Thursday 93°F, Friday 106°F. But I prefer the hot weather over cold weather. I don't like having cold hands and cold feet, also cold weather isn't good on my back and knees too.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
I'm just happy to get back to normal from the colder side. Don't need any extremes of either fashion. Winter here so the last 5 days have been way cooler than normal for us in SoCalif. Whole West is way cooler than we want it to be and it is messing with the Citrus crop and other produce. Not good.
Good to see that you are not roasting over there where you are. 86 is a nice temp. But I guess that depends on who you ask. Have a Nice Day over there.
Hope I got that right....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PedleyCA:
Well, I made it up to 63.4 here off a forecast of 64 at the Airport 2 miles South, so pretty close and much better than the 49.1 of yesterday. Tomorrow is forecast to be 67 so that will be right on normal for the date. The low is also getting back into the normal range. Normal is good...... :)

We just hit our high of 86.4F, it's a long way behind Kintore, Alice Springs, Northern Territory, they just hit 111.9F.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Well, I made it up to 63.4 here off a forecast of 64 at the Airport 2 miles South, so pretty close and much better than the 49.1 of yesterday. Tomorrow is forecast to be 67 so that will be right on normal for the date. The low is also getting back into the normal range. Normal is good...... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
No, no, no, you are looking at this the wrong way. Weather events can not directly be contributed by climate, instead they are said to be influenced by climate (the average conditions over a set period of time). With that in mind, it is highly likely (almost certain) Sandy's track was influenced (not caused) by climate change. Where's the proof? The proof is in the pattern




Two days before landfall Sandy had a massive anomalous blocking high sitting over southern Greenland. This blocking high produced a 500mb geopotential height anomaly of 450 meters, a serious anomaly in the height field. The anomalous blocking forced a trough to dig into the East coast, allowing Sandy to be pulled into the coast. Not coincidentally, the Arctic experienced one of its warmest summers ever as noted by the lowest sea ice extent ever recorded this summer. It is well understood that anomalous heat and a lack of sea ice in the Arctic favors high-latitude blocking. Therefore, since a lack of sea ice and above normal temperatures in the Arctic favor high-latitude blocking, and, since the high-latitude block was an influence on Sandy's track, it is likely that climate change influenced Sandy's track.


Your argument could be valid except that it is still theoretical. Unless it can be shown that there is a long-term increase in the probability of Sandy-like storm tracks in the western Atlantic, and it is correlated with arctic temperature/500mb height, your conclusion is just a hypothesis. Given that Sandy-like storms are so rare as it is, we don't even have more than a couple of events in the current dataset, making a probability analysis impossible at this time.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
228. wxmod
Quoting allancalderini:
You actually can.


Well, I disagree.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting ncstorm:


Doug, I just looked at your video..great cover of the song but the club goers should NOT be doing the electric slide to brick house..thats just wrong..LOL!!



Gene's Lounge in P'cola...Set your watch back 10 years before you go in there. Club can be fun tho.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Great band, Doug. Great keyboards! .... Uh, did you dye your hair for that set? You hair looks a lot darker in your avatar. LOL ..... hides under computer desk






Avatar pics is 8 years old. Vid about 5. I've never dyed my hair. Trick of the light I suppose.

smart a$$.

LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning over NPAC Bombing storm.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
@SgtAndyNorris Sgt. Andy Norris
RT @Spann Black Warrior River at Oliver Lock and Dam #alwx pic.twitter.com/5pfygAIR

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting wxmod:


You can never have too many photos of a CRIME SCENE.
You actually can.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:


You can never have too many photos of a CRIME SCENE.
LOL, really? *facedesk*
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8123
"...This is an ambitious project. However, the benefits will be significant. Naming winter storms will raise the awareness of the public, which will lead to more pro-active efforts to plan ahead, resulting in less impact and inconvenience overall. ..."

Nah. It was a dorky idea to start with, and has been dorkily implemented, such that names of winter low-pressure systems now already are received pre-dissed.

That is to say, people are automatically going "Oh, yeah. Right. More clap-trap about another non-event."

It was doomed from the start.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cooler temps. coming up for West Palm Beach...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Thanks! I played and traveled with a reggae band for 10 years on the Gulf Coast called Ba'Nana Republic. I was young and skinny with long hair. It was a bunch of fun! I played for a living full time for 25 years.
I gotta a regular job now and just do pick up gigs once in while.


Doug, I just looked at your video..great cover of the song but the club goers should NOT be doing the electric slide to brick house..thats just wrong..LOL!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
No, no, no, you are looking at this the wrong way. Weather events can not directly be contributed by climate, instead they are said to be influenced by climate (the average conditions over a set period of time). With that in mind, it is highly likely (almost certain) Sandy's track was influenced (not caused) by climate change. Where's the proof? The proof is in the pattern




Two days before landfall Sandy had a massive anomalous blocking high sitting over southern Greenland. This blocking high produced a 500mb geopotential height anomaly of 450 meters, a serious anomaly in the height field. The anomalous blocking forced a trough to dig into the East coast, allowing Sandy to be pulled into the coast. Not coincidentally, the Arctic experienced one of its warmest summers ever as noted by the lowest sea ice extent ever recorded this summer. It is well understood that anomalous heat and a lack of sea ice in the Arctic favors high-latitude blocking. Therefore, since a lack of sea ice and above normal temperatures in the Arctic favor high-latitude blocking, and, since the high-latitude block was an influence on Sandy's track, it is likely that climate change influenced Sandy's track.

Of course these kinds of blocks could happen without climate having changed due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. As such, it is virtually impossible to tie that specific Arctic sea ice anomaly directly through the steps to Sandy making landfall as it did. But if these kinds of blocks become more common, the magnitude and frequency of Sandy-like events over periods of time could be changing. That's the distinction that always seems to confuse people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
216. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:
Good. You don't need to post 8 pictures of the same thing. Try 1 next time.


You can never have too many photos of a CRIME SCENE.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I've got tunes on ITUNES and Rhapsody if you ever want to check out my solo stuff.


Here's a link to a cover of "Brickhouse" in a club we played a bunch. I'm the keyboard player I got a cool synth solo in the middle of it.

Link


Great band, Doug. Great keyboards! .... Uh, did you dye your hair for that set? You hair looks a lot darker in your avatar. LOL ..... hides under computer desk
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4942
Quoting PedleyCA:


Didn't know you were a Musician. Rocking the House. Well Done.....



Thanks! I played and traveled with a reggae band for 10 years on the Gulf Coast called Ba'Nana Republic. I was young and skinny with long hair. It was a bunch of fun! I played for a living full time for 25 years.
I gotta a regular job now and just do pick up gigs once in while.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:
OK I'm done for the night.

Good. You don't need to post 8 pictures of the same thing. Try 1 next time.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
From Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal:

What Those Who Understand Atmospheric Physics Are Talking About After Sandy

by Dan Satterfield


Click for larger image

Asking if Hurricane Sandy was caused by climate change is like asking someone at the South Pole which way is north. This kind of storm could almost certainly form in a world where the CO2 levels have been unchanging and Arctic sea ice levels were stable. That said, anyone who claims Sandy was (or was not) caused by the changing climate just doesn’t get it.

Read More >>

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
No, no, no, you are looking at this the wrong way. Weather events can not directly be contributed by climate, instead they are said to be influenced by climate (the average conditions over a set period of time). With that in mind, it is highly likely (almost certain) Sandy's track was influenced (not caused) by climate change. Where's the proof? The proof is in the pattern




Two days before landfall Sandy had a massive anomalous blocking high sitting over southern Greenland. This blocking high produced a 500mb geopotential height anomaly of 450 meters, a serious anomaly in the height field. The anomalous blocking forced a trough to dig into the East coast, allowing Sandy to be pulled into the coast. Not coincidentally, the Arctic experienced one of its warmest summers ever as noted by the lowest sea ice extent ever recorded this summer. It is well understood that anomalous heat and a lack of sea ice in the Arctic favors high-latitude blocking. Therefore, since a lack of sea ice and above normal temperatures in the Arctic favor high-latitude blocking, and, since the high-latitude block was an influence on Sandy's track, it is likely that climate change influenced Sandy's track.


Dr.Masters did a blog some days after sandy saying something similar, but will be interesting see if this pattern continues the upcoming years!!!!!!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2178
210. wxmod
OK I'm done for the night.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
209. wxmod
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Brief Temperature Outlook

Well we are half way through January and here's how temperature anomalies have shaped up so far for the first half of the month




Pretty clear cut cold in the West and warm in the East, with the most anomalous warmth in the SE (and southern Canada), which should come as no surprise given the -PDO signal and the recent amplification of the MJO into phases 4, 5, and 6. Keep in mind this anomalous warmth is indeed all occurring while we are experiencing a very negative AO and NAO, as well as a near-record stratospheric warming event.



Graph above shows 30mb temperatures in the northern hemisphere arctic region (65N-90N). This graph shows us that current temperatures (red line) are approaching the record stratosphere temperatures for this time of year (top black line). In other words, this is a near-record-setting stratospheric warming event.


Lovers of cold, shouldn't fear, however, as a solid blast of cold is on the way. First, the lower 48 will get a glancing blow of cold on Thursday and Friday as most of the cold stays just to our north in Canada. Then the real fun kicks in on Sunday when the pattern flips and we see a longwave trough firmly establish itself in the Eastern half of the US. This will bring significant cold into the entire eastern half of the nation, but especially the northern plains. The cold should remain there for about a week.

The final week of January (27th-31st), looks right now like it may see a transient period where we see weak ridging developing again in the South. This would keep the SE around average to slightly above average, while the NE remains slightly below average, and the northern plains even further below average. This idea, although a ways out in the forecast, is fairly well supported by CFS and ECMWF weeklies, as well as the ensembles from the GFS and ECMWF.

Latest CFSv2 run (12z) Average 2m Temp Anomaly for the Last Week of January



Latest GEFS run (18z) Average 2m Temp Anomaly for the Last Week of January





Finally, by February, it looks like we will again see a return of cold.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
207. wxmod
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
205. wxmod
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's the thing though, Sandy's track wasn't a product of climate change. It was just a rare event. Hurricanes have phased with troughs in the past.
No, no, no, you are looking at this the wrong way. Weather events can not directly be contributed by climate, instead they are said to be influenced by climate (the average conditions over a set period of time). With that in mind, it is highly likely (almost certain) Sandy's track was influenced (not caused) by climate change. Where's the proof? The proof is in the pattern




Two days before landfall Sandy had a massive anomalous blocking high sitting over southern Greenland. This blocking high produced a 500mb geopotential height anomaly of 450 meters, a serious anomaly in the height field. The anomalous blocking forced a trough to dig into the East coast, allowing Sandy to be pulled into the coast. Not coincidentally, the Arctic experienced one of its warmest summers ever as noted by the lowest sea ice extent ever recorded this summer. It is well understood that anomalous heat and a lack of sea ice in the Arctic favors high-latitude blocking. Therefore, since a lack of sea ice and above normal temperatures in the Arctic favor high-latitude blocking, and, since the high-latitude block was an influence on Sandy's track, it is likely that climate change influenced Sandy's track.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
200. wxmod
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Hey all.

So Nashville, TN. Any opinions on what is going to happen tonight? NWS isn't quite sure. Temps are holding at 32.9 with light drizzle. Not freezing yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59099
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I've got tunes on ITUNES and Rhapsody if you ever want to check out my solo stuff.


Here's a link to a cover of "Brickhouse" in a club we played a bunch. I'm the keyboard player I got a cool synth solo in the middle of it.

Link


Didn't know you were a Musician. Rocking the House. Well Done.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser43:
think you mean moron. maroon is a color. and maroon5 is a band.


Actually, think Bugs Bunny"s Line "what a maroon!"
Maybe Grothar and I are the only people old enough to remember Bugs.

But, I won't quibble over Goddard = moron.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CST TUE JAN 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KY THROUGH SRN OH...NRN WV...MD PANHANDLE...PA
AND SERN NY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 160136Z - 160530Z

SUMMARY...ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST AND DEVELOP NEWD THIS
EVENING FROM NERN KY INTO SRN OH...NRN WV...SRN PA INTO THE MD
PANHANDLE WITH RATES GENERALLY AROUND .05 INCH PER HOUR. A BELT OF
MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THIS ZONE FROM SCNTRL OH THROUGH CNTRL PA INTO SERN NY AND NRN
NJ...POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION PERSISTS IN VICINITY
OF A NW-SE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
THIS ZONE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO A PORTION OF
THE NERN STATES THIS EVENING AS A SSWLY LLJ DEVELOPS THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SURFACE WET BULB ZERO LINE CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TN THROUGH ERN KY...NRN WV AND SERN PA. WARM
ADVECTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SFC SUBFREEZING
LAYER...SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN FROM
NERN KY...EXTREME SRN OH...NRN WV...NRN MD...AND EVENTUALLY SRN PA
INTO EXTREME NRN NJ. NORTH OF THIS ZONE...WILMINGTON OH AND
PITTSBURG PA RAOBS INDICATE WET BULB PROFILES COMPLETELY BELOW
ZERO...SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AS IT DEVELOPS
NEWD TOWARD SCNTRL OH INTO CNTRL PA. SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT...THOUGH RATES UP TO .5 INCH AN HOUR MAY DEVELOP
FOR A SHORT WHILE LATER THIS EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FROM CNTRL THROUGH E/CNTRL PA INTO SERN NY AND
EXTREME NRN NJ...BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS TO MIX WITH SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT.

..DIAL.. 01/16/2013
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8123
194. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST January 16 2013
=======================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1000 hPa) located near 23.0S 171.0W is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on multi-spectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor in past 24 hours. Deep convection remains displaced to the east of low level circulation center. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models agree on an east southeast movement with slight intensification.

System #2
-----------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 09F (1003 hPa) located at 11.1S 165.9E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multi-spectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor. Deep convection has increased slightly near system center. System lies in a moderately sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with slight intensification.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
193. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER EMANG (06-20122013)
4:00 AM RET January 16 2013
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Emang (1000 hPa) located at 14.0S 77.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 14.1S 77.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.3S 76.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.4S 73.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.1S 69.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
First visible imagery depict a still weakening system. Compared to yesterday morning, overall vorticity has weakened and the thunderstorm activity (although closer to the center) show no banding (ref. Latest METOP visible imagery). Current assessment of intensity is the weakest estimation with SAB and PGTW still holding the CI at 2.5.

Although the upper level vertical wind shear is relaxing, the system struggles to organize. The shear is expected to remain weak for the next 2 days. Low level convergence will stop equatorwards but could strengthen over the south side. There is still a window for modest intensification within this time frame ... however strong uncertainty exists due to current poorly initial state and as available numerial weather prediction models do not significantly deepen this system.

On and after Friday, westerly vertical wind shear may strengthen again, and system should weaken.

Ex-Emang is quasi-sat although a very slow southwards drift is noted. Within the next 24-36 hours, it should recurve west southwestward by accelerating, in connection with the rebuilding of the low and mid tropospheric subtropical anticyclonic belt.

Intensity of this system doesn't justify regular advisories at the moment..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
192. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER EMANG (06-20122013)
4:00 AM RET January 16 2013
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Emang (1000 hPa) located at 14.0S 77.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 14.1S 77.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.3S 76.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.4S 73.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.1S 69.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
First visible imagery depict a still weakening system. Compared to yesterday morning, overall vorticity has weakened and the thunderstorm activity (although closer to the center) show no banding (ref. Latest METOP visible imagery). Current assessment of intensity is the weakest estimation with SAB and PGTW still holding the CI at 2.5.

Although the upper level vertical wind shear is relaxing, the system struggles to organize. The shear is expected to remain weak for the next 2 days. Low level convergence will stop equatorwards but could strengthen over the south side. There is still a window for modest intensification within this time frame ... however strong uncertainty exists due to current poorly initial state and as available numerial weather prediction models do not significantly deepen this system.

On and after Friday, westerly vertical wind shear may strengthen again, and system should weaken.

Ex-Emang is quasi-sat although a very slow southwards drift is noted. Within the next 24-36 hours, it should recurve west southwestward by accelerating, in connection with the rebuilding of the low and mid tropospheric subtropical anticyclonic belt.

Intensity of this system doesn't justify regular advisories at the moment..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I think they named the storm because of icy weather across the Dixie Alley, but I'm not 100% sure. Icy weather is dangerous in the South because not many people is used to driving in the snow.


This is what TWC say's why they are going to name winter storms and there criteria.

There will be many differences from the "tropical model" for naming winter storms. Unlike tropical systems, winter weather takes place at latitudes under extreme energy and forcing from the atmosphere.

Often a weather system that is expected to strike a metropolitan area three days from now has not even completely formed in the atmosphere. Therefore, naming of winter storms will be limited to no more than three days before impact to ensure there is moderate to strong confidence the system will produce significant effects on a populated area. In addition, the impacts from winter systems are not as simple to quantify as tropical systems where a system is named once the winds exceed a certain threshold.

The process for naming a winter storm will reflect a more complete assessment of several variables that combine to produce disruptive impacts including snowfall, ice, wind and temperature. In addition, the time of day (rush hour vs. overnight) and the day of the week (weekday school and work travel vs. weekends) will be taken into consideration in the process the meteorological team will use to name storms.

This is an ambitious project. However, the benefits will be significant. Naming winter storms will raise the awareness of the public, which will lead to more pro-active efforts to plan ahead, resulting in less impact and inconvenience overall.

Coordination and information sharing should improve between government organizations as well as the media, leading to less ambiguity and confusion when assessing big storms that affect multiple states. It will even make it easier and more efficient for social media to communicate information regarding the storm resulting in a better informed public. And, on the occasion that different storms are affecting separate parts of the country, naming storms will allow for clearer communications.


Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Current Wind map of Australia.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting LargoFl:
should be almost morning down by Aussie...hey aussie..the coffee is perking..help yourself lol...good night folks...have a great one!

I don't drink coffee, I hate the smell. I used to work across the road from a coffee factory and some days, depending on the wind direction, we'd get the smoke from the roasting of the coffee beans. Btw, it's 12:15pm here now.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Do you think you are?
I think you are referring to me if that is the case I am really sorry ,but I am not good at grammar and sometimes I am at hurry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not to be a downer, but it might be already to late to stop climate change/Global warming.

I know these 2 stories are a bit old but what was happening then is still happening now and at a faster rate.

Seeping Arctic Methane Has Serious Implications for Florida Coastline


Lakes Boiling With Methane Discovered In Alaska







The National Geographic Magazine has an article about the methane in the Arctic/Alaska/Canada.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
186. ARiot
Quoting DFWdad:


"Finding and funding alternatives", that is the trick, right?

Alternative energy is still today, and will be for a long time, way more expensive than pumping crude out of the ground. It is not just the economies of scale on solar panels argument either. My wild guess, but crude would have to be like $400 a barrel before the cost scale is the same. (anyone with real numbers on that please interject).

And since we outsourced so much of our work to other countries, we do not have a viable middle-class anymore, to fund government (or corporate) research.

We can no better afford to lead, just as China and India will not!

The only way out is to use a LOT less energy PERIOD. But who is ready to give up extra TV's, computers, mobile phones/devices, go without A/C or heat, 2nd/3rd cars (even if they are a Prius)?

Our consumer society is funding the world's growth.

We still need volunteers.


I've failed to explain my idea of climate leadership to you, as evident by your response. I apologize.

Refusal to take action is more costly in terms of capital, human life and biodiversity. Renewable sources of energy coupled with conservation provide a short term economic bump and long term economic savings. (here is a summary of the science on that, I urge you to read the citations http://www.skepticalscience.com/putting-an-end-to- renewable-energy-too-expensive-myth.html )

So, if a nation were to lead, they would not compare the price of a KWH or BTU from carbon-based sources with the same from solar and then say "It's too hard" or "It's too expensive."

We face an existential threat. It's time we act like it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The House of Representatives has approved $50.7 billion in aid for states affected by Superstorm Sandy.

Only a few months late.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34206
should be almost morning down by Aussie...hey aussie..the coffee is perking..help yourself lol...good night folks...have a great one!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 233 - 183

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto