2012: Earth's 10th warmest year on record, and warmest with a La Niña
It was another top-ten hottest year on record during 2012, which ranked as the 10th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said today. NASA rated 2012 as the 9th warmest on record. Including 2012, all 12 years to date in the 21st century (2001–2012) rank among the 14 warmest in the 133-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century--1998--was warmer than 2012. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global land temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 9th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. Following the two wettest years on record (2010 and 2011), 2012 saw near average precipitation on balance across the globe. In a NASA Press Release today, climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said, "One more year of numbers isn't in itself significant. What matters is this decade is warmer than the last decade, and that decade was warmer than the decade before. The planet is warming. The reason it's warming is because we are pumping increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."
Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2012. The continental U.S. and the eastern 2/3 of Canada were Earth's warmest regions, relative to average. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
Global extremes of 2012
Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera has put together a list of global extremes for 2012, and maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here, then, is Maximiliano's list of 2012 global extremes:
Hottest temperature in the world in 2012: 53.6°C (128.5°F) in Sulaibiya, Kuwait, July 31
Coldest temperature in the world in 2012: -84.2°C (-119.6°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, September 16
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Birdsville, Australia, January 7
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -63.1°C (-81.6°F) at Summit, Greenland, December 28
Highest annual precipitation: Cherrapunji, India, 13364 mm (526")
Lowest annual precipitation: Several stations in Southern Egypt saw not even a trace of precipitation
All-time world record warm minimum temperature tied: 41.7°C (107°F), Death Valley (USA), July 12
All-time world record highest 24-hour average temperature: 47.5°C (117.5°F), Death Valley (USA), July 11-12
World record high temperature in an island: 51.8°C (125.2°F), Failaka Island, Kuwait, July 31
World record high temperature on a coast: 52.1°C (125.8°F), Kuwait City, Kuwait, July 31
World record highest temperature with rain: 46.1°C (115°F), Needles (USA), August 13
World record for lowest humidity with rain: 11%, Needles (USA), August 13
Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of California and Arizona taken at 1:25 pm PDT August 13, 2012. Developing thunderstorms surround Needles, CA, and the line of clouds to the southwest of the city would develop into a thunderstorm that brought rain to the city at 4 pm PDT, at a temperature of 115°F and a relative humidity of 11%--both world records. Image credit: NASA.
New country and territory hottest temperature records set in 2012
Five nations and two territories tied or set their hottest temperature readings in recorded history during 2012; no coldest all-time national records were set. For comparison, Seven countries and one territory set all-time hottest temperature records in 2011, and one nation set an all-time coldest temperature record. The most all-time national heat records in a year occurred in 2010, when twenty nations and one territory did so. Here are the 2012 national heat records:
Morocco recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 17, 2012 in Marrakech, when the mercury hit 49.6°C (121.3°F).
Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31, 2012 in Sulaibya, when the mercury hit 53.6°C (128.5°F). This surpasses the highest undisputed temperature ever recorded in Asia--the 53.5°C (128.3°F) measured at Moen Jo-Daro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010. The only higher temperature ever measured in Asia was a 54°C (129.2°F) reading from Tirat Tsvi, Israel on June 22, 1942. The Israeli Met Office pursued an investigation of the record in 2012 (prompted by an inquiry from the WMO and wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt), and concluded that the record was valid. However, they have refused to make public the details leading to their conclusions, and until they do so, the record remains suspect.
Moldova recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 7, 2012 in Falesti, when the mercury hit 42.4°C (108.3°F).
Montenegro tied its hottest temperature on record on August 8, 2012 in Danilovgrad, when the mercury hit 44.8°C (112.6°F).
The Czech Republic recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 20, 2012 in Dobrichovice, when the mercury hit 40.4°C (104.7°F).
The territory of Hong Kong tied its hottest temperature on record on July 21 on Ping Chau Island, when the mercury hit 37.7°C (99.9°F).
The Sprska Republic set a new territorial high of 42.8°C (109°F) on August 24 at Visegrad.
New U.S. State Records set in 2012
New state record high: South Carolina, at Columbia University WS and Johnston, 45.0°C (113°F), June 29
State record high temperature tied: Colorado, at Las Animas, 45.6°C (114°F), June 23
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of national heat and cold records on wunderground.com's extremes page, where all of this year's national heat records are updated. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of these national weather records.
How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out close to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. During 2012, a weak La Niña event was present through March. Warming of the Eastern Pacific waters in the spring brought on neutral conditions, which lasted for the remainder of the year. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present, surpassing the previous record set just the year before, in 2011. Global temperatures were 0.09°C (0.16°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and 2012 would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead of a La Niña, as seen by looking at the year-to-date global temperature plot for 2012.
Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2012, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Earth's warmest years tend to occur when an El Niño is present; cooler years occur when a La Niña is occurring. A La Niña (El Niño) year is defined here as occurring when the first three months of a calendar year meet the La Niña (El Niño) criteria as defined by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 34 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. Through 2010, the three major research groups that maintain global surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (maintained by UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took these five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. The known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, and the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists agree that human activity is the primary cause of increasing global temperatures in recent decades.
Figure 4. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.
Video 1. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide have continued to warm the planet over the past 16 years. However, a persistent myth has emerged in the mainstream media challenging this. Denial of this fact may have been the favorite climate contrarian myth of 2012. Video courtesy of skepticalscience.com.
Top Ten Weather Lists for 2012
My Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.
NCDC's Top Ten Annual Weather/Climate Events
Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.
A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.
TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.
Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tomorrow on the 17th.
I can only dream of that.
Would have been amazing.
Driving in wintry conditions poses some serious challenges, namely, is your vehicle going to hold the road! We all know how difficult it is to drive on icy roads, and damn near impossible to control your vehicle on black ice. Black ice is the condition when just a fine layer of invisible ice coats the road, and is as slippery as Teflon! If you encounter conditions where there is a lot of bad weather and dangerous road conditions, it's advisable to invest in a set of snow tires
oh its VERY dangerous, but this is a winter storm watch for liquid freezing on roads.
They could just wait and then issue an advisory.
It's really not necessary IMO. I can't remember them ever doing it here before either.
The definition of a winter storm watch for my CWA (NWS Detroit) is:
Winter Storm
A snow accumulation of at least 5 inches in 6 hours, in combination with one of the following: rain, freezing rain, sleet, wind, blowing snow or cold (wind chill).
(Note: lesser amount of snow can be forecast for mixed precipitation, blowing, etc.)
The reasons you are under a watch really don't fit our criteria so I wouldn't be under a watch. Of course winter storms are handled a little differently down there than up here.
Generally 1-2 inches of snow is a winter weather advisory, and 3+ gets winter storm watches and warnings.
Freezing rain gets advisories and warnings. 1/2inch of snow and black ice is not generally warning criteria. Oh will, im still hoping for more than expected. I doubt I'll see much of anything.
Come on to the East a little more..
AS OF 2 PM TODAY...WITH THE 9.8 INCH TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL MEASURED AT RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT...THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL IN WASHINGTON DC STANDS AT 54.9 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC OF 54.4 INCHES SET IN THE WINTER OF 1898-99. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR WASHINGTON DC DATE BACK 126 YEARS TO 1884.
AS OF 1 PM TODAY...WITH THE 11.9 INCH TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL MEASURED AT BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL THURGOOD MARSHALL AIRPORT...THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL IN BALTIMORE STANDS AT 72.3 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD FOR BALTIMORE OF 62.5 INCHES SET IN THE WINTER OF 1995-96. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR BALTIMORE DATE BACK 118 YEARS TO 1893.
FINALLY...AS OF YESTERDAY...THIS YEARS SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL AT DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT STOOD AT 63.5 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD OF 61.9 INCHES SET IN 1995-96. AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL AT DULLES IS 8.5 INCHES...WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS YEARS SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL 72.0 INCHES. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR DULLES DATE BACK 48 YEARS TO 1962.
THESE PRELIMINARY STORM TOTALS ARE AS OF THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 10 FEB 2010...AND WILL BE UPDATED AFTER THE CURRENT SNOW HAS ENDED
kwgirl, glad you reposted this so I could see it and tell PBW I thank her and would like to meet most of the folks she mentioned too! Sorry for the late reply but I've had a family emergecy the past few days and things have finally settled down.
Latest CPC Day 8-14 Temp Anomaly Forecast
You would have to check with the Dept. of Transportation in your State...
Google (studded snow tires in) and it will give a list while you are doing it, look for your State or ask the State D.O.T.
39 hours
42 hours
Washingtonian can u send me the snow when its done at ur house???
yeah i meant send the snow showers this way when ur done with them.... myabe invest in a giant fan :p
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013
VALID 00Z THU JAN 17 2013 - 00Z SAT JAN 19 2013
...SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...
...HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND THE CAROLINAS...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN
GULF COAST WILL HAVE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/EASTERN GULF COAST THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TO WESTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THE
STORM WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL GULF COAST THAT WILL BECOME HEAVY
SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE SNOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION ... RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THAT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ON THURSDAY ... MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
Tropicalweatherpr you know I'm happy.
Oh and just fyi for everyone, low profile tires are horrible in ice and snow... learned that lesson the hard way..
PBW , I think you are a great lady , you have a courage that I sometimes lack .
I can back that he manipulated at least one quote today because it was one that I said . I hope Admin noticed it . And you dont get a permaban .
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SECONDARY WIND SHIFT HAS RUSHED ACROSS NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z AND WE'RE BACK TO A NW WIND DRYING BL FLOW.
BAROCLINIC CIRRUS PREVAIL ABOVE WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS THE INVERSION CURRENTLY AT THE TOP OF
THE IFR DECK NEAR 1500 FEET IS MODELED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND DRY
OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN
E PA AND N NJ IF SKIES TEMPORARILY CLEAR AT HIGH LEVELS BECAUSE OF
LIGHT WIND AND STILL HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE...A CIG AOA 8000 FT SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH MID LVL LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES. TOO WARM ALOFT
FOR FREEZING PCPN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THU AFTN AND NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS IS A CLOSE MATCH THE 16Z HPC
INTERNAL SNOW PREDICTIONS USING MULTIPLE TOOLS. IN ADDITION...09Z
SREF WHILE BEING BIASED HIGH BY A COUPLE OF MEMBERS PERFORMED PRETTY
WELL FOR LAST NIGHTS EVENT...ESPECIALLY IF YOU ADJUST THE PTYPE
USING VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES.
THURSDAY...CHILLY RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP...CERTAINLY IN THE AFTN.
ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES STILL HAVE TO DISSIPATE THE WANING ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER IN THE 7000 TO 10000 FT LAYER /750MB/. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY THE 12Z NAM MAX WBZ IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WHICH IS ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH THE LATEST AVBL GFS/NAM MODELS THRU ABOUT 21Z.
HOWEVER... THEREAFTER...VERY LATE IN THE DAY UVM IN THE IDEAL
DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE BECOMES INTERESTING AND WE COULD SEE A VERY
QUICK CHANGE FROM MDT RAIN TO MODERATE SNOW IN PTNS OF MDS E SHORE
INTO SRN DE 2-5PM.
PRESUMING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...THE WET SNOW WILL CLING TO
BRANCHES AND WIRES IN A LIGHT WIND NEAR 33F ENVIRONMENT WITH
SLIPPERY SLUSHY TRAVEL DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.
WE SEE THE 18Z NAM IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THAT STATES THE UNCERTAINTY
AND SO ITS A WATCH THAT MAY END UP WITHOUT ANY DECENT SNOW. WATCHES
ARE JUST THAT... A CALL TO ATTENTION BUT NOT A GUARANTEE. OTHERWISE
IF THE WATCH IS A GUARANTEE...WE WOULD WARN. IN THIS
CASE...UNCERTAINTY!
MOS TEMPS WERE MODIFIED DOWNWARD IN THE AFTN PCPN OVER DE/MD (WET
BULBING). OTRW...PRIOR 4 AM FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS WERE VERY
CLOSE TO OUR EXPECTATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY THE EXTENDED, WITH A BRIEF WARM
PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY
EVENING. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION THAT BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ONCE THE TRANSITION OCCURS, IT
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW AS THE AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANY SNOW THAT HAD A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING
DURING THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING DURING THIS
TIME. FOR NOW, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA. SNOWFALL COULD REACH THE DELAWARE
VALLEY/I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT NORTH OF THAT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SINCE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF LINE. THE AREAS ALONG THE
DELAWARE VALLEY/I-95 CORRIDOR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE THAN A
COATING TO AN INCH. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW
JERSEY/CENTRAL SOUTHERN DELMARVA WE COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 2-6
INCHES. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PRODUCING THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AT A FAIR PACE, SO IT WILL NOT BE AROUND
ALL NIGHT LONG. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS. IFR CIGS WITH LEFTOVER
RAIN OR SPRINKLES/FREEZING IN THE POCONOS/ SHIFTING SEWD THRU THE
EVENING. LIGHT WIND.
TONIGHT...CIGS WILL DEFINITELY LIFT TO AOA 8000 FT. LIGHT NW WIND.
TAFS HAVE FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY KRDG AND KABE.
THURSDAY...VFR CIGS LOWERING DURING THE AFTN WITH RAIN IN DE/MD
AND FAR SE NJ INCLUDING KMIV AND KACY CHANGING TO WET SNOW BETWEEN
19Z/17-00Z/18Z. LIGHT NNW WIND MAY INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS LATE IN THE
DAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY...AND ODDS FAVOR IT REMAINS SOUTH OF
PHILADELPHIA.
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