2012: Earth's 10th warmest year on record, and warmest with a La Niña
It was another top-ten hottest year on record during 2012, which ranked as the 10th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said today. NASA rated 2012 as the 9th warmest on record. Including 2012, all 12 years to date in the 21st century (2001–2012) rank among the 14 warmest in the 133-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century--1998--was warmer than 2012. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global land temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 9th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. Following the two wettest years on record (2010 and 2011), 2012 saw near average precipitation on balance across the globe. In a NASA Press Release today, climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said, "One more year of numbers isn't in itself significant. What matters is this decade is warmer than the last decade, and that decade was warmer than the decade before. The planet is warming. The reason it's warming is because we are pumping increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."
Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2012. The continental U.S. and the eastern 2/3 of Canada were Earth's warmest regions, relative to average. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
Global extremes of 2012
Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera has put together a list of global extremes for 2012, and maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here, then, is Maximiliano's list of 2012 global extremes:
Hottest temperature in the world in 2012: 53.6°C (128.5°F) in Sulaibiya, Kuwait, July 31
Coldest temperature in the world in 2012: -84.2°C (-119.6°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, September 16
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Birdsville, Australia, January 7
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -63.1°C (-81.6°F) at Summit, Greenland, December 28
Highest annual precipitation: Cherrapunji, India, 13364 mm (526")
Lowest annual precipitation: Several stations in Southern Egypt saw not even a trace of precipitation
All-time world record warm minimum temperature tied: 41.7°C (107°F), Death Valley (USA), July 12
All-time world record highest 24-hour average temperature: 47.5°C (117.5°F), Death Valley (USA), July 11-12
World record high temperature in an island: 51.8°C (125.2°F), Failaka Island, Kuwait, July 31
World record high temperature on a coast: 52.1°C (125.8°F), Kuwait City, Kuwait, July 31
World record highest temperature with rain: 46.1°C (115°F), Needles (USA), August 13
World record for lowest humidity with rain: 11%, Needles (USA), August 13
Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of California and Arizona taken at 1:25 pm PDT August 13, 2012. Developing thunderstorms surround Needles, CA, and the line of clouds to the southwest of the city would develop into a thunderstorm that brought rain to the city at 4 pm PDT, at a temperature of 115°F and a relative humidity of 11%--both world records. Image credit: NASA.
New country and territory hottest temperature records set in 2012
Five nations and two territories tied or set their hottest temperature readings in recorded history during 2012; no coldest all-time national records were set. For comparison, Seven countries and one territory set all-time hottest temperature records in 2011, and one nation set an all-time coldest temperature record. The most all-time national heat records in a year occurred in 2010, when twenty nations and one territory did so. Here are the 2012 national heat records:
Morocco recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 17, 2012 in Marrakech, when the mercury hit 49.6°C (121.3°F).
Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31, 2012 in Sulaibya, when the mercury hit 53.6°C (128.5°F). This surpasses the highest undisputed temperature ever recorded in Asia--the 53.5°C (128.3°F) measured at Moen Jo-Daro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010. The only higher temperature ever measured in Asia was a 54°C (129.2°F) reading from Tirat Tsvi, Israel on June 22, 1942. The Israeli Met Office pursued an investigation of the record in 2012 (prompted by an inquiry from the WMO and wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt), and concluded that the record was valid. However, they have refused to make public the details leading to their conclusions, and until they do so, the record remains suspect.
Moldova recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 7, 2012 in Falesti, when the mercury hit 42.4°C (108.3°F).
Montenegro tied its hottest temperature on record on August 8, 2012 in Danilovgrad, when the mercury hit 44.8°C (112.6°F).
The Czech Republic recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 20, 2012 in Dobrichovice, when the mercury hit 40.4°C (104.7°F).
The territory of Hong Kong tied its hottest temperature on record on July 21 on Ping Chau Island, when the mercury hit 37.7°C (99.9°F).
The Sprska Republic set a new territorial high of 42.8°C (109°F) on August 24 at Visegrad.
New U.S. State Records set in 2012
New state record high: South Carolina, at Columbia University WS and Johnston, 45.0°C (113°F), June 29
State record high temperature tied: Colorado, at Las Animas, 45.6°C (114°F), June 23
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of national heat and cold records on wunderground.com's extremes page, where all of this year's national heat records are updated. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of these national weather records.
How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out close to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. During 2012, a weak La Niña event was present through March. Warming of the Eastern Pacific waters in the spring brought on neutral conditions, which lasted for the remainder of the year. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present, surpassing the previous record set just the year before, in 2011. Global temperatures were 0.09°C (0.16°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and 2012 would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead of a La Niña, as seen by looking at the year-to-date global temperature plot for 2012.
Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2012, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Earth's warmest years tend to occur when an El Niño is present; cooler years occur when a La Niña is occurring. A La Niña (El Niño) year is defined here as occurring when the first three months of a calendar year meet the La Niña (El Niño) criteria as defined by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 34 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. Through 2010, the three major research groups that maintain global surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (maintained by UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took these five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. The known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, and the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists agree that human activity is the primary cause of increasing global temperatures in recent decades.
Figure 4. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.
Video 1. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide have continued to warm the planet over the past 16 years. However, a persistent myth has emerged in the mainstream media challenging this. Denial of this fact may have been the favorite climate contrarian myth of 2012. Video courtesy of skepticalscience.com.
Top Ten Weather Lists for 2012
My Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.
NCDC's Top Ten Annual Weather/Climate Events
Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.
A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.
TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.
Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tropical Storm Emang!
To be honest, some people on the blog don't know how to spell.
The January ECMWF update of the pressures and sst's for May,June and July in the North Atlantic is out and have weak high pressure on the ensemble mean but much stronger high pressures on the operational.The sst anomalies in the North Atlantic look near normal except in the Gulf of Mexico where they are above normal. Let's see the next monthly updates how things will stand.
ECMWF January Operational update.
ECMWF Ensemble Mean January update.
ECMWF sst anomalies January Update.
Gave Pat the day off. Happy Birthday Pat
Good Post Doc,
Though I am skeptical about the causes of GW (I know skepticism is already part of the scientific method!), I cannot ignore these observations.
The statement, "The reason it's warming is because we are pumping increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere", troubles me.
The U.S. already creates a lot of the CO2, so it is an easy target for cutbacks.
But aren't China and India increasing their outputs at a tremendous rate with economic growth and expansion?
Getting the world to cut back on CO2 output, is like getting Washington D.C to cut government spending. Nobody want's to volunteer!
Who's first?
florida is mostly that way with a few exceptions..80's and 90's..most of the year unless the canadians send us down a present or two from up there, and that doesnt last long at all here
Hello Largo Person:
I have lived in Florida long enough to have seen what things were like during a different climate phase (circa 1973-1989). This was when the Atlantic Oscillator was in a different phase from where it is now, inhibiting tropical development and allowing for much colder winters. If I am not mistaken, the Pacific was also in a cooler phase during much of this period as well. And of course, to whatever extent human-caused global warming has affected the planet's climate, it was up to 40 years further back in that process back then.
I was a kid going to school in Florida back in that period, having just moved here from a much colder climate. Like most others, I was led to believe that Florida was always warm or hot. I can remember mornings in November, in the Tampa Bay area, where the temperature was below 30F and the wind chill was well down in the teens. Pools of leftover rainwater in the street were frozen over. This was in November of 1976. The following January, we had accumulating snow, ranging between a quarter of an inch in Pinellas County, along the beaches, to as much as 2" in the Brooksville area. That was on 01/19/77.
In fact, the entire fall and winter season of 1976-77 was very cold by Florida standards. It was cold enough in Central Florida to have been considered a normal winter in Northern Georgia, to give you and idea. And snow was also recorded in the Orlando area and points north on one more occasion that winter, at the end of January or very early February. If you look this up, you will find corroborating information, somewhere. I do recall that on January 31 of that year (1977) it was stated that all 50 states officially had snow on the ground. When a similar situation happened a few years ago, only 49 made the list because Mauna Loa in Hawaii was barren of snow at that moment, for some reason.
Other years during the 70's and 80's were also unusually cold or cool, and not just in the winter. I was not living here yet then but if you look at the records, 1971 was a year that saw repeated record lows recorded at Tampa International Airport in every month from November of 1970 to May of 1971. And of course, we had a light dusting of snow during the Christmas of 1989, when it was so cold that the power companies could not keep up with demand and there were rolling blackouts for several days. Other years in the 80's saw very hard freezes in Central Florida as well, often ruining the citrus crop. This is in fact why you see no more citrus groves around Orlando in this era, whereas in the 1970s and earlier, that city was surrounded by hundreds of thousands of acres of orange and grapefruit groves climbing up and down the rolling hills. Now one just sees housing subdivisions and shopping centers surrounding the old Citrus Tower tourist trap in Lake County, FL. All the citrus trees froze during the 80's deep freezes and the industry moved about 120 miles further to the south.
Perhaps you have not been here that long, most here have not. And human memories are normally very short and inaccurate. Only some of us recall such things in detail, especially when the subject (meteorology) interests us so much. But believe me, the climate here in Florida was not nearly as warm a few decades ago as it is today. Prior to that and during the first one third of the 20th century however, records indicate that it was very similar to what you see now. You would notice very few long term or daily low temperature records from that era, but plenty of high temp records, same as today. Climate changes, for a variety of reasons, not all manmade. And it also goes in cycles.
Nevertheless, don't be at all surprised if the cold snap forecast for the middle of next week turns out to be significantly colder than the current forecast would indicate. Normally the temperature numbers are conservatively predicted this far out, due to fluctuations in the models from run to run, this far ahead of time. But we are due for a major cold snap here and eventually for a shift in the short term climate cycle as well. Just thought you might like this little dose of trivia regarding our region, since you clearly keep a close eye on weather trends.
____________________________
Winter Storm (Helen) headed for the Northeast with minimal impacts for the big cities...snow-wise
click pic for larger view
It's beyond simple. Leaders do not wait to see what everyone else is doing. If we lead by example the rest will follow.
Those who have per-capita consumption problems must find and fund alternatives, and the rest will follow.
We don't have a choice anyway. Cheap energy is over.
Actually Germany is..even after turning off their Nuclear Plants they are now exporting more energy than ever before, while being ahead of their renewable energy goals. Yes it's caused problems..all of a sudden there is a lot of cheap energy across some of Europe. Demand for cheap energy has risen as some gas driven power plants were taken off line in The Netherlands.
Large Corporate & industrial users in Germany are calling it a failure because it's forcing old resource consuming plants offline while stressing the grid with so much electricity. The grid needs updated & power storage facilities are needed.
Subsidies vs price have been another issue. Even though it's a huge good boon for Germany that is spilling over into other countries, it like everything else~ isn't immune to being run wrong to gain money.
RE
I did not see the prior map to this one. Were there any noteworthy changes?
The CPC is very confident in below average temperatures for central and eastern areas in the 6-10 day period, with above average temps in far SW areas, especially S CA:
They're also expecting below average precip for most:
2) Yes, the BRIC countries--particularly the two you mentioned--are spewing tremendous amounts of CO2. But their doing so doesn't absolve the US of responsibility in doing something. (Too, it pays to remember that on a per capita basis, Americans emit the most CO2 of any large western nation.)
I saw someone elsewhere here refer to a world with reduced emissions as "carbotopia". Not sure whether s/he has children or plans to, but I've a hunch that his/her descendants will wish their ancestors had done more than mock the overwhelming science.Perhaps it's something unknown, then? An invisible Martian interplanetary heat ray directed our way? Morlocks with their subterranean thermostats set too high? This heavy down coat I'm wearing? What could it be?! Because the fossil fuel industry swears the heating isn't from fossil fuels, and since they have absolutely nothing to gain by being dishonest about that, I take them at their word. Thus, no alternative theory should be discounted as too far-fetched! ;-)
Wasn't it a neutral year mainly... The last half had a forming el nino.
It wasn't ever an official El Nino, but we did have an El Nino warning for the entirety of hurricane season. Most of the ENSO models were predicting that we would get into the 1.5 range, or a moderate El Nino. However, for some strange reason the Nino 1,2 region started just crashing into La Nina by September or so.
Because the fossil fuel industry swears the heating isn't from fossil fuels, and since they have absolutely nothing to gain by being dishonest about that, I take them at their word.
Liar
Going either to W coast of US or Arctic, well over 100 mb surface pressure difference currently over N. Pacific w/storm http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/291284972222943 232/photo/1
"Finding and funding alternatives", that is the trick, right?
Alternative energy is still today, and will be for a long time, way more expensive than pumping crude out of the ground. It is not just the economies of scale on solar panels argument either. My wild guess, but crude would have to be like $400 a barrel before the cost scale is the same. (anyone with real numbers on that please interject).
And since we outsourced so much of our work to other countries, we do not have a viable middle-class anymore, to fund government (or corporate) research.
We can no better afford to lead, just as China and India will not!
The only way out is to use a LOT less energy PERIOD. But who is ready to give up extra TV's, computers, mobile phones/devices, go without A/C or heat, 2nd/3rd cars (even if they are a Prius)?
Our consumer society is funding the world's growth.
We still need volunteers.
Actually, Rex Tillerson recently said that the climate is warming and that burning fossil fuels contribute to the warming. He also stated that it is an engineering problem but offered none of Exxon's engineers nor did he offer any engineering suggestions.
Rex Tillerson on Youtube
It is an engineering problem. We will adapt - Easy for him to say. He will be dead long before his grandchildren suffer through "adapting".
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 151648Z - 152115Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY YIELD ICE
ACCUMULATION RATES OF 0.02-0.10 IN/HR DEVELOPING INTO NWRN MS/WRN TN
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF A POSITIVE-TILT LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...PERSISTENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SUPPORTED A BROAD SWATH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING E/NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH MODEST
N/NELY SURFACE WINDS AND ABUNDANT DOWNSTREAM CLOUD COVERAGE
RETARDING SURFACE HEATING...MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS LARGELY A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM WHEN COMPARED TO 16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH
THE OBSERVED FREEZING LINE RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM MLU TO BNA. GIVEN
THE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE SAMPLED IN 12Z BNA/SHV RAOBS ATOP THE
SURFACE BELOW-FREEZING LAYER...FREEZING RAIN THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING
IN SRN AR AND FAR NRN LA WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN NWRN
MS AND WRN TN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO
AREA.
..GRAMS.. 01/15/2013
Good points really.
A bit of my rant is whining about things not being fair to the U.S. But we do need to be responsible.
And to give India credit, I did read that they built a huge clean-coal power plant, to replace a lot of dirty-coal plants they use now. However, an unintended consequence, is that they cannot use the coal produced by their own workers/country, and have to import it now. And Asian-Indians have lost jobs. Things just are not simple are they.
NJ should probably reassess its hurricane risk.
20% changes to the county
wrong
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CST TUE JAN 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...KY...NWRN TN
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 152034Z - 160030Z
SUMMARY...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP NEWD WITHIN A NARROW
SW/NE-ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM WRN TN ACROSS PARTS OF KY. ICE
ACCUMULATION RATES SHOULD LARGELY HOLD FROM .02-.05 IN/HR.
DISCUSSION...A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH WHERE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE PREVALENT.
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WET BULB FREEZING LINE HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
NWD THROUGH THE DAY...ROUGHLY FROM 30 E MKL-BWG-JKL AS OF
20Z...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY POOR AT HANDLING THE
SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED COLD DOME EVIDENT IN THE 18Z BNA RAOB. THIS IS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE 12Z NAM BEING 10 DEG F TOO WARM WITH THE 20Z
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT HOP AND MINIMAL FREEZING RAIN PROBABILITIES
DEPICTED IN THE 15Z SREF. AS SUCH...ONGOING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WRN
TN WILL SHIFT PRIMARILY NEWD AND LIKELY AFFECT A HOP-LEX CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 01/15/2013
There has been some recent research about the increased solar winds from the sunspot max we are in consistently causing La Nina..You can pick it out over history. Even if things were trending warm..
ehh... Maybe. I would see how we do for another year or two. With Irene and Sandy the past 2 years I would definetly be more cautious in the NYC/NJ/DE/MD/NE areas... seems like the hurricanes like the Northeast region lately so it would be something to pay attention to
yep move along nothing to see here its just fireworks
yeah right
I agree with all that you are saying, with a notation that I will add. Fossil fuels are becoming increasingly costly to use and will hinder our economic growth. The housing bubble had many contributing factors. One would not be wise to think that the rapidly increasing price of the barrel and at the pumps before the housing market collapse did not have its own play in the collapse itself. Too many home owners were already struggling with their month to month expenses and when gasoline doubled in a short time frame it pushed many of these people over the edge. Unless we want to have our economy dictated by the fossil fuel industries we need to make serious investments into alternative energy sources. Who knows what are the markets to collapse should the price of the barrel about double within a year again.
You should have had Blue Bell's Homemade Vanilla ice cream. Yes, it will still give you "brain freeze", but you will better enjoy how you got it. :-)
Brain sneeze, according to Si on Duck Dynasty
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