Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:46 PM GMT on January 14, 2013 | +32 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Tropical Storm Helene...huh!
by the way, the Japan monster storm made it to 932mb this morning...now at 936
Im my records this storm is the strongest one i've seen, the other was at 933 on 2010. Should we name the storm off Japan guys???
I dont know, its gonna fall apart soon.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS KEEPING A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
A WARM AND RATHER MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WARM WEATHER COULD
SET A FEW MORE RECORD HIGHS EACH DAY. THE FOLLOWING TABLES SHOW THE RECORD
AND NORMAL HIGHS FOR JANUARY 14TH, 15TH, 16TH AND 17TH.
RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 14:
LOCATION RECORD NORMAL RECORDS
HIGH HIGH BEGAN
ARCADIA (ARCF1) 85.0 IN 1972 73 1899
ARCHBOLD BIO STN (ACHF1) 87.0 IN 1972 73 1969
AVON PARK 2 W (AVPF1) 87.0 IN 1972 73 1901
BARTOW (BARF1) 84.0 IN 1989 73 1892
BROOKSVILLE ASOS (KBKV) 80.0 IN 2007 70 1996
BUSHNELL (BSHF1) 83.0 IN 1989 70 1948
CHIEFLAND 5 SE (CHIF1) 82.0 IN 1989 66 1956
FORT GREEN 12 WSW (FTGF1) 79.0 IN 2007 71 2001
FT MYERS/PAGE FIELD (KFMY) 86.0 IN 1989 74 1902
FT MYERS/SW FL (KRSW) 81.0 IN 2007 73 1998
INVERNESS 3 SE (INVF1) 83.0 IN 1992 70 1948
LAKELAND (LLDF1) 83.0 IN 1989 72 1948
MOUNTAIN LAKE (LWLF1) 85.0 IN 1989 74 1935
MYAKKA RIVER ST PARK (MKCF1) 87.0 IN 1989 74 1956
PARRISH (PARF1) 84.0 IN 1972 71 1957
PLANT CITY (PLCF1) 86.0 IN 1932 72 1892
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE (PNTF1) 85.0 IN 1989 75 1965
PUNTA GORDA ASOS (KPGD) 82.0 IN 2007 74 1996
SAINT LEO (STLF1) 86.0 IN 1947 72 1895
SARASOTA-BRADENTON (KSRQ) 84.0 IN 1937 71 1911
ST PETE-CLEARWATER (KPIE) 82.0 IN 2007 70 1998
ST PETE/ALBERT WHITTED(SPGF1) 82.0 IN 1989 69 1914
TAMPA (KTPA) 84.0 IN 1989 70 1890
TARPON SPNGS SWG PLT (TRPF1) 84.0 IN 1947 69 1892
VENICE (VNCF1) 87.0 IN 1989 71 1955
WAUCHULA 2 N (WAUF1) 87.0 IN 1972 74 1933
WEEKI WACHEE (WEEF1) 86.0 IN 1992 70 1969
WINTER HAVEN (KGIF) 86.0 IN 1989 71 1941
---------------------------------
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD AMPLE
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD... RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A DEEP COLD AIR MASS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS A RESULT... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CAN SPREAD BACK INTO THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DESPITE WARM GROUNDS FROM RECENT
UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
STRONG UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA BY
MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING... BUT THIS WOULD
BE MAINLY OVER ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW
COULD BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE... IT
APPEARS THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND THE
I-85 CORRIDOR EAST OF ATLANTA.
AT THIS TIME... NO WIDESPREAD TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE INITIAL SNOWFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE IS
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF BLACK ICE DEVELOPING ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MID FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.
ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WINTER WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
$$
Just mere 4" from Athena and 3" from Freyr... No major storms.
I really want to hear the rumble of thundersnow...
I like at least the normal temps. It is too cold for here when it is 35-55 during the day. That is just wrong. If I could have it 80 all the time I would.
Panama
She was saying she was going skiing with the Girls shortly maybe thats where she is .
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1212 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013
...WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CTZ005>008-NYZ069-070-160115-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0001.130116T0500Z-130116T2100Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1212 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK...
AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
* TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SNOW AND SLEET WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
Yep, wacky weather! We had Thundersnow/sleet this AM in the Dallas Fort Worth Area. Even though it has mostly melted, it was good enough for a work-from-home day.
The noreasters all went to Greenland.
ECMWF Operational January update:
ECMWF Ensemble Mean January update:
ECMWF January sst update
Florida would be perfect except for the humidity. That is just awful some times....
Yardbirds, and I don't mean the Pink Flamingos. Weather Song....
Dear Largo Person:
I have lived in Florida long enough to have seen what things were like during a different climate phase (circa 1973-1989). This was when the Atlantic Oscillator was in a different phase from where it is now, inhibiting tropical development and allowing for much colder winters. If I am not mistaken, the Pacific was also in a cooler phase during much of this period as well. And of course, to whatever extent human-caused global warming has affected the planet's climate, it was up to 40 years further back in that process back then.
I was a kid going to school in Florida back in that period, having just moved here from a much colder climate. Like most others, I was led to believe that Florida was always warm or hot. I can remember mornings in November, in the Tampa Bay area, where the temperature was below 30F and the wind chill was well down in the teens. Pools of leftover rainwater in the street were frozen over. This was in November of 1976. The following January, we had accumulating snow, ranging between a quarter of an inch in Pinellas County, along the beaches, to as much as 2" in the Brooksville area. That was on 01/19/77.
In fact, the entire fall and winter season of 1976-77 was very cold by Florida standards. It was cold enough in Central Florida to have been considered a normal winter in Northern Georgia, to give you and idea. And snow was also recorded in the Orlando area and points north on one more occasion that winter, at the end of January or very early February. If you look this up, you will find corroborating information, somewhere. I do recall that on January 31 of that year (1977) it was stated that all 50 states officially had snow on the ground. When a similar situation happened a few years ago, only 49 made the list because Mauna Loa in Hawaii was barren of snow at that moment, for some reason.
Other years during the 70's and 80's were also unusually cold or cool, and not just in the winter. I was not living here yet then but if you look at the records, 1971 was a year that saw repeated record lows recorded at Tampa International Airport in every month from November of 1970 to May of 1971. And of course, we had a light dusting of snow during the Christmas of 1989, when it was so cold that the power companies could not keep up with demand and there were rolling blackouts for several days. Other years in the 80's saw very hard freezes in Central Florida as well, often ruining the citrus crop. This is in fact why you see no more citrus groves around Orlando in this era, whereas in the 1970s and earlier, that city was surrounded by hundreds of thousands of acres of orange and grapefruit groves climbing up and down the rolling hills. Now one just sees housing subdivisions and shopping centers surrounding the old Citrus Tower tourist trap in Lake County, FL. All the citrus trees froze during the 80's deep freezes and the industry moved about 120 miles further to the south.
Perhaps you have not been here that long, most here have not. And human memories are normally very short and inaccurate. Only some of us recall such things in detail, especially when the subject (meteorology) interests us so much. But believe me, the climate here in Florida was not nearly as warm a few decades ago as it is today. Prior to that and during the first one third of the 20th century however, records indicate that it was very similar to what you see now. You would notice very few long term or daily low temperature records from that era, but plenty of high temp records, same as today. Climate changes, for a variety of reasons, not all manmade. And it also goes in cycles.
Nevertheless, don't be at all surprised if the cold snap forecast for the middle of next week turns out to be significantly colder than the current forecast would indicate. Normally the temperature numbers are conservatively predicted this far out, due to fluctuations in the models from run to run, this far ahead of time. But we are due for a major cold snap here and eventually for a shift in the short term climate cycle as well. Just thought you might like this little dose of trivia regarding our region, since you clearly keep a close eye on weather trends.
In this post ans other, Dr Jeff Masters related the cuurent jet stream behavior to the Arctic sea ice loss. However, since the atmosphere is a complex "domain", can we related the actual situation to other triggering "reason". I have been reading about the impact of the " Sudden Stratospheric Warming" (SSW) on the actual situation we are experiencing.., There are analysis of this SSW we are experiencing since the mid december. Even UKMet post an article about the current SSW last week (http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/tag/ssw/) and also mention the cold outbreak we will be eperiencing next week. For those who can read french the was analysis of the coming situation that beginning in december; http://www.espacemeteo.com/Prevision-Meteo/Analyse -stratospherique. I will be interested to hear Dr Jeff Masters opinion in this matter.
ACOMTL (from Montreal)
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