Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2013

Share this Blog
45
+

It was another year of incredible weather extremes globally during 2012. The year featured two of the most expensive weather disasters in world history--Hurricane Sandy and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012, which will both cost more than $50 billion. Thankfully, no disasters had a death toll in excess of 2,000, though the 1,901 people dead or missing due to Super Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines may rank as that nation's 2nd deadliest typhoon ever. Twenty-six weather disasters costing at least $1 billion occurred globally, according to insurance broker AON Benfield. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters in 2011. Nine billion-dollar weather disasters hit China, their highest total in a decade of record-keeping. I present for you, now, the top ten global weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact:



1) New Record Minimum for Arctic Sea Ice (September 16)
Sea ice extent in the Arctic fell to 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that 2012's Arctic weather was much cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during 2012s minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean." Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The fall air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is that is causes increased melting in Greenland, contributing to sea level rise.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day near the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. It won't be many years before Santa's workshop needs pontoons in the summer to stay afloat.

2) Agricultural Drought in the U.S., Europe, and Asia (Summer)
Drought is civilization's great enemy, and the most dangerous threat from global warming. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. In a harbinger of things to come, severe droughts affected important agricultural regions across the globe during summer 2012, including eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. Wheat, corn, and soybean crops were among those heavily impacted; global food prices rose by 10 percent during July. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August, and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is going to be one of the top-five most expensive weather disasters in world history.


Figure 2. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.

3) Superstorm Sandy (October 29)
Hurricane Sandy was the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. Ten hours before landfall, at 9:30 am EDT October 29, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to more than five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the U.S. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall in excess of 12 inches to the mid-Atlantic, and blizzard conditions to the central and southern Appalachians. Sandy's late-season show of unprecedented strength, unusual track, and exceptionally damaging storm surge were made more likely due to climate change, and the storm helped bring more awareness and debate about the threat of climate change to the U.S. than any event since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Figure 3. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

4) Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Glacier Calving (July)
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the Greenland ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. But during four consecutive days July 11 - 14, temperatures rose above freezing at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle. Melting of the ice sheet dramatically accelerated, and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. This was the greatest melt since 1889, according to ice core records. On July 16, an iceberg twice the size of Manhattan calved from the Petermann Glacier in Northeast Greenland. This was the second huge ice island to calve from the glacier since 2010. The glacier's margins have now retreated to the farthest point in the last 150 years. The record melt in Greenland caused the highest loss of ice mass observed in the satellite era, and melting from Greenland is now thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total.


Figure 4. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

5) Super Typhoon Bopha (December 3 - 4)
The deadliest weather disaster of 2012 was Super Typhoon Bopha. Bopha was the strongest typhoon ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead or missing, mostly on the island of Mindanao. If the missing people are presumed dead, this total would make Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.04 billion, Bopha is the most costly typhoon ever to hit the Philippines. The previous record was the $600 million price tag of 2009's Typhoon Parma.


Figure 5. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

6) Northern Hemisphere Warmth (throughout 2012)
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere reached record warm monthly values for four consecutive months (April - July). Much of the unusual warmth occurred in North America; Canada was 3rd warmest on record for the period January- September, and the United States had its warmest year on record. Many European countries and Russia had record to near-record warm summer temperatures in 2012.


Figure 6. This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River on June 28, 2012, as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in Carpentersville, IL imag credit: wunderphotographer pjpix.

7) Eurasian Continent Cold Wave (January 24 - February 17)
Europe's worst cold snap in at least 26 years hit central and eastern Europe hard during a 3-week period in late January and the first half of February. The 824 deaths being blamed on the cold wave made it 2012's second deadliest weather disaster. Parts of the Danube River froze over for the first time in 25 years, and Northeast China through eastern Inner Mongolia recorded extremely cold minimum temperatures ranging between -30°C to -40°C.


Figure 7. Snow falls in Trogir, Croatia on February 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer antoniomise.

8) China Floods (July 21 - 22)
Torrential downpours on July 21 - 22 affected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, with several stations recording their highest daily precipitation on record. Mentougou recorded an impressive 305.2 mm (12 inches) of precipitation in one day. The floods killed 129 people and did $4.8 billion in damage, one of a record nine billion-dollar weather disasters to affect China in 2012.


Figure 8. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says these were the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

9) Pakistan Floods (August 21 - September 30)
Torrential monsoon rains caused deadly floods in Pakistan, with Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces the hardest hit. Over 5 million people and over 400,000 hectares of crops were affected by the floods, with more than 460,000 houses and infrastructures damaged or destroyed. The death toll of 455 made it Earth's 3rd deadliest weather-related disaster of 2012.


Figure 9. A driver makes his way on a street flooded from heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

10) African Floods (July - October)
Heavy rains in Nigeria killed at least 431, making it Earth's 4th deadliest weather disaster of 2012. Over 3 million people were affected by flooding across 15 countries in Africa, most notably Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The floods destroyed farmlands, homes, and schools, and caused outbreaks of cholera and other diseases.

Other Top Ten Weather Lists of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1074 - 1024

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

1074. nymore
Quoting Skyepony:
nymore~ Sea ice doesn't float in the air..



I am not trying to argue but even if they are leads they will freeze rather quickly in temps like that. And if that is the surface only with no sun to melt them I can not see how it is possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1073. Skyepony (Mod)
nymore~ Sea ice doesn't float in the air..



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39388
1072. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EST Sunday 13 January 2013
Condition: Light Rain
Pressure: 29.83 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 10 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 42.6°F
Dewpoint: 41.9°F
Humidity: 97 %
Wind: N 3 mph


theres the wind shift now

temp trend falling
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1071. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
sounds like a project spathy
would be interesting to see what has fell and what has yet to fall wxmods new job lol

surface map warmth moveth on winter rtns

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1070. nymore
Quoting Skyepony:
Wow..Not even completely frozen solid on the surface..
I think your graph may be wrong here are the temps in that part of the arctic (nearest I can find)

Alert

Current Conditions

-32C

Observed at:
Alert
Date:
9:00 PM EST Sunday 13 January

Kugluktuk

Current Conditions

Clear

-36C


Sachs Harbour

Current Conditions

-31C


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Great article... thanks for sharing it. The comments, albeit closed were some more food... ah algae for thought!
Quoting Skyepony:
Giant algae blooms thriving under thinning Arctic sea ice

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1067. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
Wow..Not even completely frozen solid on the surface..


1st year ice slush ice

slop ice as my grandfather would call it

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1066. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
==weather event discussion==

A January thaw began on Friday as an unseasonably mild airmass
originiating from the Gulf of Mexico pushed north into Southern
Ontario. A few maximum temperature records were set on Friday with
many more set on Saturday as daytime highs soared into the double
digits in many locales.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system currently tracking north of the
Lower Great Lakes has given rainfall amounts of 20 to 50 mm
Over portions of Southern Ontario. Most of rain fell from
Saturday night to Sunday morning. Some of these regions have broken
their records for highest rainfall on January 13. Rainfall amounts
In the table below are as of 8 PM, unless noted. Yet another
Weather system will affect Southern Ontario tonight and therefore
rainfall amounts for today will be even higher. This bulletin will
be updated after midnight accordingly.


Friday, January 11, 2013 temperatures
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Location new record [c] old record [c] (year)
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Harrow 12.1 11.7 (1939)
Borden 7.2 6.0 (2006, 2007)
Collingwood 10.6 10.0 (1975)


Saturday, January 12, 2013 temperatures
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Location new record [c] old record [c] (year)
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Windsor 13.8 12.0 (2005)
Ridgetown 13.6 12.5 (1995)
London 12.6 11.2 (1995)
Elora 11.1 8.5 (1995)
Waterloo Wellington 12.1 10.0 (1995)
Mount Forest 10.5 10.0 (1932)
Wiarton 12.8 10.8 (2005)
Collingwood 12.8 9.6 (2006)
Borden 11.7 6.1 (not available)
Muskoka 7.4 6.5 (1995)
Burlinton pier 14.4 12.0 (1995)
Hamilton 13.3 12.1 (1995)
Vineland 14.4 13.5 (1995,2005)
Toronto Pearson 14.8 9.5 (2006)
Toronto downtown 13.0 8.8 (2006)
Toronto Island 10.3 7.4 (1982)
Buttonville 13.2 8.6 (2006)
Oshawa 11.1 10.0 (1975)
Peterborough 10.6 8.2 (1995)
Trenton 10.7 7.2 (2006)
Brockville 8.5 8.5 (1995)
Ottawa 6.5 4.2 (2007)

Sunday, January 13, 2013 rainfall
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Location new record [mm] old record [mm] (year)
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Windsor Airport 27.2 16.8 (1979)
London 22.1 10.0 (2005)
Waterloo-Wellington 26.1 12.0 (2005)
Hamilton Airport 41.6 11.4 (1979)
Welland 20.9 15.2 (1937)
Toronto Pearson 28.0 9.7 (1950)
Toronto city 27.2 14.8 (1993)
Oshawa 25.5 18.2 (1992)
Peterborough 21.8 4.8 (1993)
Trenton 17.6 12.2 (1950)

Sunday, January 13, 2013 rainfall
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Location significant rainfall amounts [mm]
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Ridgetown 32.6
Delhi 45.8
Mount Forest 13.6
Borden 16.5
Barrie 15.1
Vineland 31.0
Uxbridge west 22.5
Gribsby mountain 33.2 (by 7 AM)
Dorchester 25.6 (by 8 AM)
New Glasgow 35.0 (by 8 AM)
Fergus 17.6 (by 8 AM)
St Thomas 32.0 (by 8:45 AM)
Shanty Bay 17.0 (by 8 AM)
Tapley 13.3 (by 7 AM)
Tillsonburg 38.0 (by 8 AM)
Toronto East York 24.6 (by 7AM)
Toronto Downsview 26.2 (by 4:30 PM)
Toronto Island 23.5 (by 7 AM)
Port Colborne 11.0 (by 7:30 AM)
Elora 14.6 (by 7 AM)
Coldwater warminster 11.4 (by 7:30 AM)

This weather summary contains preliminary information and may not
constitute an official or final report.

END/OSPC

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1065. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1000 hPa) located at 17.1S 178.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

System has become slightly disorganized past 24 hours. Deep convection decreased in northeast quadrant of system past 12 hours. Outflow good in northeastern quadrant of system but restricted elsewhere. Strong upper level divergence present to northeast of system. System lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature around 29C. Cloud features not clear cut, MET=1.5 and PT=1.5. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Dvorak intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.9S 177.2W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 19.1S 175.9W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 22.1S 173.3W - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46913
Quoting wxmod:


I'm just showing you the world as it is. Now go back to your video games.

LOL
I'm not even playing video games, I'm finishing up an English project, monitoring radar, and blogging on WU. I know the world as it is, trust me. Generalizing teens like that is not good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1063. wxmod
Quoting wxchaser97:

He doesn't even have any kids because he is too young, same for me. Posting all of those images sometimes just wants to make me ignore it, not think about it more.


I'm just showing you the world as it is. Now go back to your video games.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Btw, I figure out how to change the color table. All you got to do is this.

Open notepad.

Paste this:

Product: BV
units: KTS
step: 10


color: 0 128 128 128
color: 10 86 0 0
color: 35 243 33 14
color: 45 255 114 51
color: 60 255 255 0
color: 120 181 118 62
color: -10 12 62 36
color: -40 35 185 110
color: -50 90 221 155
color: -60 221 216 253
color: -120 120 120 253

And save it as PAL file. Go on GRLevel3. Go to view. Go to Color Table setting. Click on the file. And you should have it.

Thanks, it worked out really well!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:


And I asked you a question that you were afraid to answer.

He doesn't even have any kids because he is too young, same for me. Posting all of those images sometimes just wants to make me ignore it, not think about it more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:


And I asked you a question that you were afraid to answer.
No, I do not have kids. I'm only 18 year old, jeez.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1059. wxmod
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm just saying all of those satellite shots you're posting are pointless. And they are not what you think they are.


And I asked you a question that you were afraid to answer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1058. Skyepony (Mod)
Air Quality in California was worse than forecast.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39388
Quoting wxchaser97:
I have asthma too, but I sure am not afraid. In fact, soon enough I'll be in some very toxic environments(smoke and fire) even though I have asthma.


Btw, I figure out how to change the color table. All you got to do is this.

Open notepad.

Paste this:

Product: BV
units: KTS
step: 10


color: 0 128 128 128
color: 10 86 0 0
color: 35 243 33 14
color: 45 255 114 51
color: 60 255 255 0
color: 120 181 118 62
color: -10 12 62 36
color: -40 35 185 110
color: -50 90 221 155
color: -60 221 216 253
color: -120 120 120 253

And save it as PAL file. Go on GRLevel3. Go to view. Go to Color Table setting. Click on the file. And you should have it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1056. Skyepony (Mod)
Giant algae blooms thriving under thinning Arctic sea ice
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39388
1055. wxmod
Quoting Astrometeor:
I think I am plenty immune to China's death air....rain washed away all the pollutants.


Rain doesn't wash away air pollution. Different densities don't mix. Weather 101
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:


Got any kids who have asthma? You should be afraid.
I'm just saying all of those satellite shots you're posting are pointless. And they are not what you think they are.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:


Got any kids who have asthma? You should be afraid.
I have asthma too, but I sure am not afraid. In fact, soon enough I'll be in some very toxic environments(smoke and fire) even though I have asthma.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1052. wxmod
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Oooooo, the pollution will choke us, wxmod. I'm so afraid...


Got any kids who have asthma? You should be afraid.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1051. Skyepony (Mod)
Wow..Not even completely frozen solid on the surface..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39388
1050. wxmod
A few hours ago I posted 24 consecutive hours of hazardous Beijing air quality readings. I thought before you went to bed you'd like to know nothing has changed.

#
BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-14-2013 09:00; PM2.5; 296.0; 346; Hazardous

#
1h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-14-2013 08:00; PM2.5; 358.0; 406; Hazardous

#
2h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-14-2013 07:00; PM2.5; 308.0; 358; Hazardous

#
3h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-14-2013 06:00; PM2.5; 328.0; 378; Hazardous
#
4h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-14-2013 05:00; PM2.5; 447.0; 465; Hazardous
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


It's what the left always does.


How come nobody here has discussed Al Gore's selling out to middle-east oil conglomerates and Al Jazeera?
Is he still ya'lls hero?


Actually, I commented on this. I said it was racist to call a middle eastern news agency an oil company.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1048. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39388
Oooooo, the pollution will choke us, wxmod. I'm so afraid...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14896
Black Hole Sun
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6239
I think I am plenty immune to China's death air....rain washed away all the pollutants.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10481
1043. wxmod
Global air pollution on the Oregon ocean side. MODIS Nobody is immune to what's happening in China!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Earth appears to be right in the path of a CME that left the Sun this morning associated with an M class solar flare. The Space Weather Prediction Center is currently predicting impact to be sometime Thursday afternoon and evening, which is consistent with what this model shows:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1041. wxmod
MODIS Aqua image of the Pacific Ocean. California and Oregon are on the far right.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1040. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY TWO (05U)
8:30 AM WST January 14 2013
=========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (980 hPa) located at 25.2S 109.6E or 410 km west of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 27.8S 109.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 30.3S 110.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 36.9S 117.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 46.4S 135.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Tropical Cyclone Narelle continues to weaken with ADT and subjective Dvorak estimates held up for a period overnight due to the re-establishment of a weak eye pattern. Oceansat scatterometer pass at 1714Z indicated the minimum-maximum wind as around 40 knots, however the intensity is maintained at 50 knots taking into account AMSU, ADT and subjective Dvorak estimates.

Model guidance continues to show a relatively low spread in track forecasts with expected motion generally toward the south during Monday.

Higher than normal tides are expected along the west coast as a shelf wave moves down the coast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46913
Actually topped out at 57.1@15:50PST Now 55.6 Since WxMod is posting all nasty pictures of SoCal I checked the PM 2.5 and it is in the moderate range. I haven't been outside except to feed the cats. I see we have another freeze warning. Forecast low 34F. Brrrr.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6239
1038. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE EMANG (06-20122013)
4:00 AM RET January 14 2013
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Emang (997 hPa) located at 12.0S 79.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM only in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.7S 79.0E - 35 knots (Tempte Tropicale Modre)
24 HRS: 13.1S 78.3E - 35 knots (Tempte Tropicale Modre)
48 HRS: 13.9S 77.2E - 40 knots (Tempte Tropicale Modre)
72 HRS: 14.7S 75.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempte Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
The general structure of the system is not yet very persistent, the convection is fluctuating, and undergoes diurnal evolution. Due to his small size, the system suffer from the moderate easterly upper level constraint, has difficulties to intensify.

Current forecast is based on 1200z ECMWF run that has accelerate and suggests a regular west southwestward track within the next 24 hours northwest of low and mid-level high pressures. Tuesday, Emang is expected to track temporarily south southwestward with the steering influence of a low situated in its southwest. Beyond, Emang should take again a regular west southwestward then westward track at the end of the forecast period.

1800z CIMSS data still show an easterly constraint. Upper level environment should become progressively more favorable for a probably slow intensification within the next 48-60 hours. From Wednesday, it is possible that system more clearly intensifies thanks to a building polarward channel in the south.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46913
Quoting wxmod:
Stuffy nose, sore throat, itchy eyes? I wonder why? Dioxin is in the air. MODIS satellite photo today.


Allergies? Because that is what happens to me when my allergies act up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1036. wxmod
Do you have the flu or does the whole state of California have the flu? Air pollution, southern CA today. MODIS

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
DENSE FOG FOR ALL NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...
____________________________

hit pic for bigger resolution


I can prove this true.... i can barely see anything outside :/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1034. wxmod
Stuffy nose, sore throat, itchy eyes? I wonder why? Dioxin is in the air. MODIS satellite photo today.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1033. wxmod
MODIS Terra Satellite photo today. Pacific

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1032. wxmod
Ships devastating the Pacific Ocean. Can't even buy good fish anymore! MODIS

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1031. wxmod
Global air pollution spreading over California. What happens in China eventually comes to our house. MODIS satellite photo today.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Love when I see news about the flu on TWC....Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just a note for those not using GR2Analyst: Without storm motion set, which is not available on any other GRlevelX product besides GR2Analyst, the rotation seen on radar is going to look a lot more threatening than what it actually is.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Why SPC didn't issued a Tornado Watch this afternoon? There have been a few Tornado Warnings.

Coverage isn't large enough. These tornado warnings have been few and far between.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why SPC didn't issued a Tornado Watch this afternoon? There have been a few Tornado Warnings.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14896
AQuoting PedleyCA:
Are You All Playing Nice Now?????

Made it to 55.8 here and is hanging on there for dear life. That was pretty much the Forecast high for tomorrow is supposed to go 52 and then it is on the road back to normal which is:

Max Temperature: Min Temperature:
Normal 67 43
Record 84 (1912) 25 (1963)
Yesterday 56 30
Ah... why play nice, that's no fun. Shake it up and stir it up. Wake up the mind in different ways and call it a debate!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Serious rotation on that storm in SE MS, looks better every radar scan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
that huge future monster is now leaving Japan with a pressure of 997 mb....it'll deepen about 61 millibars

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1074 - 1024

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
29 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron