Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2013

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It was another year of incredible weather extremes globally during 2012. The year featured two of the most expensive weather disasters in world history--Hurricane Sandy and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012, which will both cost more than $50 billion. Thankfully, no disasters had a death toll in excess of 2,000, though the 1,901 people dead or missing due to Super Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines may rank as that nation's 2nd deadliest typhoon ever. Twenty-six weather disasters costing at least $1 billion occurred globally, according to insurance broker AON Benfield. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters in 2011. Nine billion-dollar weather disasters hit China, their highest total in a decade of record-keeping. I present for you, now, the top ten global weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact:



1) New Record Minimum for Arctic Sea Ice (September 16)
Sea ice extent in the Arctic fell to 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that 2012's Arctic weather was much cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during 2012s minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean." Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The fall air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is that is causes increased melting in Greenland, contributing to sea level rise.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day near the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. It won't be many years before Santa's workshop needs pontoons in the summer to stay afloat.

2) Agricultural Drought in the U.S., Europe, and Asia (Summer)
Drought is civilization's great enemy, and the most dangerous threat from global warming. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. In a harbinger of things to come, severe droughts affected important agricultural regions across the globe during summer 2012, including eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. Wheat, corn, and soybean crops were among those heavily impacted; global food prices rose by 10 percent during July. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August, and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is going to be one of the top-five most expensive weather disasters in world history.


Figure 2. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.

3) Superstorm Sandy (October 29)
Hurricane Sandy was the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. Ten hours before landfall, at 9:30 am EDT October 29, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to more than five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the U.S. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall in excess of 12 inches to the mid-Atlantic, and blizzard conditions to the central and southern Appalachians. Sandy's late-season show of unprecedented strength, unusual track, and exceptionally damaging storm surge were made more likely due to climate change, and the storm helped bring more awareness and debate about the threat of climate change to the U.S. than any event since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Figure 3. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

4) Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Glacier Calving (July)
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the Greenland ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. But during four consecutive days July 11 - 14, temperatures rose above freezing at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle. Melting of the ice sheet dramatically accelerated, and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. This was the greatest melt since 1889, according to ice core records. On July 16, an iceberg twice the size of Manhattan calved from the Petermann Glacier in Northeast Greenland. This was the second huge ice island to calve from the glacier since 2010. The glacier's margins have now retreated to the farthest point in the last 150 years. The record melt in Greenland caused the highest loss of ice mass observed in the satellite era, and melting from Greenland is now thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total.


Figure 4. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

5) Super Typhoon Bopha (December 3 - 4)
The deadliest weather disaster of 2012 was Super Typhoon Bopha. Bopha was the strongest typhoon ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead or missing, mostly on the island of Mindanao. If the missing people are presumed dead, this total would make Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.04 billion, Bopha is the most costly typhoon ever to hit the Philippines. The previous record was the $600 million price tag of 2009's Typhoon Parma.


Figure 5. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

6) Northern Hemisphere Warmth (throughout 2012)
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere reached record warm monthly values for four consecutive months (April - July). Much of the unusual warmth occurred in North America; Canada was 3rd warmest on record for the period January- September, and the United States had its warmest year on record. Many European countries and Russia had record to near-record warm summer temperatures in 2012.


Figure 6. This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River on June 28, 2012, as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in Carpentersville, IL imag credit: wunderphotographer pjpix.

7) Eurasian Continent Cold Wave (January 24 - February 17)
Europe's worst cold snap in at least 26 years hit central and eastern Europe hard during a 3-week period in late January and the first half of February. The 824 deaths being blamed on the cold wave made it 2012's second deadliest weather disaster. Parts of the Danube River froze over for the first time in 25 years, and Northeast China through eastern Inner Mongolia recorded extremely cold minimum temperatures ranging between -30°C to -40°C.


Figure 7. Snow falls in Trogir, Croatia on February 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer antoniomise.

8) China Floods (July 21 - 22)
Torrential downpours on July 21 - 22 affected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, with several stations recording their highest daily precipitation on record. Mentougou recorded an impressive 305.2 mm (12 inches) of precipitation in one day. The floods killed 129 people and did $4.8 billion in damage, one of a record nine billion-dollar weather disasters to affect China in 2012.


Figure 8. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says these were the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

9) Pakistan Floods (August 21 - September 30)
Torrential monsoon rains caused deadly floods in Pakistan, with Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces the hardest hit. Over 5 million people and over 400,000 hectares of crops were affected by the floods, with more than 460,000 houses and infrastructures damaged or destroyed. The death toll of 455 made it Earth's 3rd deadliest weather-related disaster of 2012.


Figure 9. A driver makes his way on a street flooded from heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

10) African Floods (July - October)
Heavy rains in Nigeria killed at least 431, making it Earth's 4th deadliest weather disaster of 2012. Over 3 million people were affected by flooding across 15 countries in Africa, most notably Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The floods destroyed farmlands, homes, and schools, and caused outbreaks of cholera and other diseases.

Other Top Ten Weather Lists of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting nymore:
You know after some thought about Climate change I think I may have come up with a way to start solving the problem.

First we cut off all funding for any study or research or courses taught into Climate Change. Because it is not in doubt it is man's fault. All this is just wasted money telling us something we already know.

Now we take the money saved and hand that money to Inventors and Engineers to come up with a solution. I feel sorry for those who will lose their jobs but their part of identifying this problem is over and they can go home now or find other careers.


We also know that we can extract fossil fuels. This is settled, is it not? So why do we not quit funding the fossil fuel industry's R&D projects? Why not stop giving them subsidies? Why not use the money saved from this to invest into renewable energy sources that will be required to be brought into use as the fossil fuels become more depleted and more difficult to extract? Should we not already have alternative energy sources well established before fossil fuels become too depleted and too expensive for daily use? Those that work for the fossil fuel industries now can just get another job. The smart ones will get jobs building the alternative energy sources we all will need down the road.
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WHEN is this rain going to stop training over the Baton Rouge/New Orleans area????
I think we have gotten 12 inches so far this year!!! 10 in the last 3 days!
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


Try living in Wisconsin.

In summer, we fry. (I've seen 100 as a high)

In winter, we freeze. (It got down to -40 here once!)
I hate to sound like a broken record...But, My ex was stationed at Eielson AFB, Alaska many, many years ago.. I spent a year up there with him.... I saw 67 below the winter I was there..And it was dark 22 hours a day at that time... Not a place I would want to live...But many do
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5824
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Try living in Wisconsin.

In summer, we fry. (I've seen 100 as a high)

In winter, we freeze. (It got down to -40 here once!)
Funnel.....I grew up in Ohio. I remember 100 + temps... But it never lasted too long. It lasts (TOO) long here. Wake up sweating, go to bed sweating... But still the best in the conus.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5824
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

The more significantly cold air is just loitering off the E Coast near that area of rain with 850mb temps < -8c http://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/2898374812669 13280/photo/1
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Don't mind the 100. Couldn't handle the -40.

Sorry. I wouldn't survive up there. I give you all credit.


It hardly ever gets below -10, but the worst winters can bring -40's for 3 three straight days.
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Quoting overwash12:
I lived in Wisconsin from '76 to '81,it can get brutal!


July is brutualy hot and hardly brings any rain.

In January, the December snow packs into ice.

In Febuary, the melting snow refeezes making the roads slick.

September-November can bring powerful mid-latitude gales.

May, June, and August are full of thunderstorms.

The Wisconsin river tends to flood too.
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ILwthr, mentioned in previous blog that a pulse headed north of StL last night, but have not looked up what amounts were received, but along with melt should help. Also didn't see if S IL got anywhere near forecast, if they did that might help Rend (along with the melt of that big snow they got)

Pretty sure WC said Gandalf came out of a Pacific NW system, had someone out in Park City because they were supposed to get worst of it (best as far as ski operators are concerned, I'm sure).
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


Try living in Wisconsin.

In summer, we fry. (I've seen 100 as a high)

In winter, we freeze. (It got down to -40 here once!)
down to -40 only once you sissy
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You know after some thought about Climate change I think I may have come up with a way to start solving the problem.

First we cut off all funding for any study or research or courses taught into Climate Change. Because it is not in doubt it is man's fault. All this is just wasted money telling us something we already know.

Now we take the money saved and hand that money to Inventors and Engineers to come up with a solution. I feel sorry for those who will lose their jobs but their part of identifying this problem is over and they can go home now or find other careers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Try living in Wisconsin.

In summer, we fry. (I've seen 100 as a high)

In winter, we freeze. (It got down to -40 here once!)
I lived in Wisconsin from '76 to '81,it can get brutal!
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Montana........ I bitch, we all bitch abouth the Florida weather... But that is our nature... Florida is fantastic. (But so freekin' hot in the summer)


Try living in Wisconsin.

In summer, we fry. (I've seen 100 as a high)

In winter, we freeze. (It got down to -40 here once!)
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110. VR46L
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


.

If you have worked with a variety of livestock, as I have, and tend to perceive unbiasedly, you can't miss females, whether sheep, cattle, dogs, horses or cats, as they are going into estrus, trying to get an answer to their physiologic tension. It's not a willful act... it more might be described as 'something that happens to them'.

I was a bit non-plussed when I made the correlation that human females exhibit very much the same behavior, and evidence the same relief: suddenly sunshine and smiles in every direction, when the physiological tension has been answered and relieved.

May not be politically correct, but, hey, this is a science website; n'pas?


Women have alot more to put up with ....
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Quoting Levi32:


Well regardless of what the global long-term tendency may be, our state does not exhibit a global warming signature, at least yet. The only statistically significant warming that occurred here in the last 60 years was a "stair step" in 1976 during the great Pacific climate shift. On either side of that giant step, the temperature trend has been essentially flat, and there are indications in recent years that we are about to undergo a similar step in the opposite direction since the PDO now appears to be shifting back to its pre-1976 phase.



Source: UAF Geophysical Institute


Applause.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


~sigh~

I miss Florida weather.

Here? High today... something under 10. Low? Something under zero.

Global Warming is like God: No matter how pure and solid your faith and belief, the darned thing still abandons you.
Montana........ I bitch, we all bitch abouth the Florida weather... But that is our nature... Florida is fantastic. (But so freekin' hot in the summer)
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5824
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
From Today's New York Times...

SNOW IN JERUSALEM....OVER 8"


The top big picture is about dead sheep by the wildfires in Australia :(


It also talks about the record US heat, the huge floods in Pakistan, the tornadoes in Italy, the brutal cold in China and in Russia.

Here it says what happened to a town in Russia from the extreme cold
"Especially lately. China is enduring its COLDEST WINTER in near 30 years. Brazil is in the grip of a dreadful heat spell. Eastern Russia is so freezing - minus 50F, and counting - that the traffic lights in the city of Yakutsk RECENTLY STOPPED WORKING..."


To you that sounds extreme, to me that sounds like Russia.
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Quoting originalLT:
Go on a trip to Alaska see how the glaciers are retreating, go ask Alaskan's what they think. It is a conservative state, but most that I talked to up there this past summer say , at least up there, there is global warming. They can see it with there own eyes and you could too if you make the trip. Many are not convinced man is to blame, but virtually all I spoke with say it (global warming) is taking place.As one guy put it, ,the glaciers are akin to "the canary in a coal mine",-- pretty good analogy. Virtually all the glaciers are retreating, and they have photographic proof of that for at least the past 60-70 years.


Well regardless of what the global long-term tendency may be, our state does not exhibit a global warming signature, at least not yet. The only statistically significant long-term warming that occurred here in the last 60 years was a "stair step" in 1976 during the great Pacific climate shift. On either side of that giant step, the temperature trend has been essentially flat, and there are indications in recent years that we are about to undergo a similar step in the opposite direction since the PDO now appears to be shifting back to its pre-1976 phase. If there is a global trend affecting Alaska, it will not be evident for some time.



Source: UAF Geophysical Institute
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Quoting goosegirl1:



And now every lady on the blog is giving you the stink eye :) Just to be a contrary female and prove your point, it's "n'est pas."


:-) Thanks for the correction.

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Quoting luvtogolf:


I respectfully disagree. Many times on this blog there are intense discussions over the NHC's designation (or not designating) a system. We talk about naked swirls, warm core versus cold core, tropical versus non tropical and how the NHC views them.


Yeah, you remember Tony this year?

We argued over that one all day.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


It would probably help if they upped the criteria for naming the storms. Like maybe storms that only reach Blizzard Criteria? That would reduce the number of storms named and concentrate on the more dangerous ones at that.


Agreed, but then, their objective is to sell tires, and advertising for tires.... not to promote cogent science, or even proper organization of observation.


I still say that this naming of winter storms is abomination! Corruption! And the mis-allocated energies of purberty-driven ideation!
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Irritating, perhaps, but not really an agitator, IMHO.

If you have worked with a variety of livestock, as I have, and tend to perceive unbiasedly, you can't miss females, whether sheep, cattle, dogs, horses or cats, going into answer their physiologic tension. It's not a willful act... it more might be described as 'something that happens to them'.

I was a bit non-plussed when I made the correlation that human females exhibit very much the same behavior, and evidence the same relief: suddenly sunshine and smiles in every direction, when the physiological tension has been answered and relieved.

May not be politically correct, but, hey, this is a science website; n'pas?



And now every lady on the blog is giving you the stink eye :) Just to be a contrary female and prove your point, it's "n'est pas."
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Quoting SteveDa1:


It's obvious this poster is an agitator... I mean, look at his posts.


Irritating, perhaps, but not really an agitator, IMHO.

If you have worked with a variety of livestock, as I have, and tend to perceive unbiasedly, you can't miss females, whether sheep, cattle, dogs, horses or cats, as they are going into estrus, trying to get an answer to their physiologic tension. It's not a willful act... it more might be described as 'something that happens to them'.

I was a bit non-plussed when I made the correlation that human females exhibit very much the same behavior, and evidence the same relief: suddenly sunshine and smiles in every direction, when the physiological tension has been answered and relieved.

May not be politically correct, but, hey, this is a science website; n'pas?
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Antarctica will make a complete thaw by 2035.

Faster and Faster.
They are predicting a possible asteroid hit by 2036,so your point is?
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99. Skyepony (Mod)
Old Christmas trees are being collected to sure up the dunes in NJ.

DAVID SWANSON
Discarded Christmas trees were laid on Midway Beach to bolster a zigzag of beach fence. Truckloads of trees from Haddonfield will be used.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


~sigh~

I miss Florida weather.

Here? High today... something under 10. Low? Something under zero.

Global Warming is like God: No matter how pure and solid your faith and belief, the darned thing still abandons you.


One trouble with this heat wave is our citrus trees are blooming early and if we still get a freeze we will all be paying more for our OJ
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Go on a trip to Alaska see how the glaciers are retreating, go ask Alaskan's what they think. It is a conservative state, but most that I talked to up there this past summer say , at least up there, there is global warming. They can see it with there own eyes and you could too if you make the trip. Many are not convinced man is to blame, but virtually all I spoke with say it (global warming) is taking place.As one guy put it, ,the glaciers are akin to "the canary in a coal mine",-- pretty good analogy. Virtually all the glaciers are retreating, and they have photographic proof of that for at least the past 60-70 years.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


It would probably help if they upped the criteria for naming the storms. Like maybe storms that only reach Blizzard Criteria? Would reduced the number of storms named and concentrate on the more dangerous ones at that.

There are blizzard warnings in northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota so then this would still warrant a name.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting goosegirl1:



She's just yanking on Keep's chain.


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Behold Gandalf ...

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND AN ATTENDANT
LOBE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ADJACENT
AREAS OF WY/NEB/SD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASE IN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND SUPPORT A CONCURRENT
INTENSIFICATION OF SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR BEGINNING
SHORTLY OR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. WHEN SNOWFALL RATES ARE
GREATEST...OCCURRING PRIMARILY BEFORE 12/00Z...VISIBILITIES WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED /AOB 0.5 MI/. FURTHERMORE...AS THE CYCLONE
DEVELOPS NEWD FROM THE NERN CO TO THE ERN DAKOTAS BY THIS
EVENING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
--OWING TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT-- AND FACILITATE REDUCED
NEAR-GROUND VISIBILITIES AND EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW.
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Quoting nymore:
thanks I thought it was the one that formed by Texas a few days ago. Naming storms has made it so much clearer.


It would probably help if they upped the criteria for naming the storms. Like maybe storms that only reach Blizzard Criteria? That would reduce the number of storms named and concentrate on the more dangerous ones at that.
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Quoting goosegirl1:


Well shucks, and here I was hoping to finally get something right today! Please explain for us what you hope to accomplish to further science and intelligent discussion by repeating "faster and faster."


It's obvious this poster is an agitator... I mean, look at his posts.
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Quoting hydrus:
A long way out, but I do believe this is where the bitter cold really takes hold and sticks around. Notice the massive size of this trough.


Keep it east of 100 degrees longitude please...?

Please...?
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

No we don't.


I respectfully disagree. Many times on this blog there are intense discussions over the NHC's designation (or not designating) a system. We talk about naked swirls, warm core versus cold core, tropical versus non tropical and how the NHC views them.
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Quoting luvtogolf:
So we can "argue" (or discuss) abortion, religion, politics, Tim Tebow, MLB Hall of Fame, capitalism, socialism, war, did man really walk on the moon, nuclear war, bigfoot, the Lockness monster, aliens, drunk driving, texting while driving, medical marijuana, cloning, racism, guns, divorce, same sex marriage, euthanasia, the death penalty, taxes, gambling and on and on and on and on. But there is only one thing that there is no argument for and that is AGW. Hmmmmm.
Oh, dear. It seems you're confused about the difference between opinion and fact. See, human-cuased climate change is real. It's happening. It's been scientifically validated through millions of observations taken from hundreds of thousands of locations by thousands of scientists working across dozens of disciplines over many decades. Whether it exists or not is simply not a matter of subjective opinion; that's reserved for things such as who was the best pair on DWTS, or who should be voted into the MLB Hall next year, or whatever. Certainly people are free to discuss (or argue) AGW all they wish--but at this advanced point in the game, a person stating that they don't believe in it is akin to someone stating that they don't believe in gravity or light or magnetism.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


~sigh~

I miss Florida weather.

Here? High today... something under 10. Low? Something under zero.

Global Warming is like God: No matter how pure and solid your faith and belief, the darned thing still abandons you.


Thats the best thing I've heard all day!
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From Today's New York Times...

SNOW IN JERUSALEM....OVER 8"


The top big picture is about dead sheep by the wildfires in Australia :(


It also talks about the record US heat, the huge floods in Pakistan, the tornadoes in Italy, the brutal cold in China and in Russia.

Here it says what happened to a town in Russia from the extreme cold
"Especially lately. China is enduring its COLDEST WINTER in near 30 years. Brazil is in the grip of a dreadful heat spell. Eastern Russia is so freezing - minus 50F, and counting - that the traffic lights in the city of Yakutsk RECENTLY STOPPED WORKING..."
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Quoting stormchaser43:
who the hell cares.why is this blog always about tomball and neapolitan.seriously.even when they are not bickering you all still obsess over these ppl.i guess weather is no priorty hear,,


I think honesty is important.
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


Did the same the last few days here in Fort Myers. Tuesday we had a high of 88. Average should be around 75


~sigh~

I miss Florida weather.

Here? High today... something under 10. Low? Something under zero.

Global Warming is like God: No matter how pure and solid your faith and belief, the darned thing still abandons you.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


Wrong again, Goose.


Well shucks, and here I was hoping to finally get something right today! Please explain for us what you hope to accomplish to further science and intelligent discussion by repeating "faster and faster."
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


It is confusing, I was kinda of assuming given the current status for the main event is just now unfolding.



Here is forecasted track.



I wonder if both lows will merge into a dominate low. That may be the case here. I would just assume that the more southerly low is the stronger one and is the one forecasted to produce the 8-10" amounts in Eastern North Dakota tonight.
thanks I thought it was the one that formed by Texas a few days ago. Naming storms has made it so much clearer.
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This rain that is expected for the weekend in Puerto Rico is needed as we are on a deficit of precipitation on the start of the year. Also,the winds will increase again on Sunday.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST FRI JAN 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF A STRONG LOW WILL PASS
TOMORROW MORNING. A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OVER CUBA MOVES OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WHILE DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH...PASSING SUNDAY
NIGHT. A CUT-OFF LOW OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT MOVES TO THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND PULLS A TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1750 MILES NORTHEAST. A
RIDGE INTERVENES ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES OVER THE AREA UNTIL
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 22 NORTH ON THURSDAY
AND TO THE NORTHEAST THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. IN THE
MEANTIME...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CAUSES
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AT LOWER LEVELS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND A STRONG LOW THAT DOMINATES
ALL OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL COME
DOWN IN THE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW BEING LIGHT AND SHALLOW SHOWERS
WITH BREAKS OF CLEARING FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW IS CONTINUING TO BRING BANDS OF
MOISTURE AND SHALLOW SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. THE LATEST BAND NOW
APPEARS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE BEING JOINED BY
ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL YIELD SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME DRYING ON SUNDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW LESS DRY AIR NOW FOR
SUNDAY THAN THEY DID BEFORE...SO NO LONGER EXPECT SHOWERS TO
COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WILL PREVENT MOST OF
THE SHOWERS FROM MAKING IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. SO FOR SUNNIER
WEATHER A TRIP TO THE SOUTH SIDE WILL DO NICELY. MODELS SHOW MORE
MOISTURE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE RULE. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE MORE
RELAXED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND
TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WIND WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS ARE NOT LONGER ADVANCING LONG PERIOD WAVES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THEY HAVE NOT
BACKED OFF THE LENGTH OF PERIOD OR HEIGHT FOR THE PEAK SWELL
HEIGHT ON MONDAY. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH SURF ADVISORIES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT BEING ISSUED TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLIER AT THE
NEXT SHIFT`S DISCRETION. HIGH SURF WARNINGS AND COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 80 73 80 / 70 70 50 50
STT 75 83 74 82 / 20 70 30 30
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't worry it will be frozen green grass you will be looking at soon enough


Crossing fingers that it holds up! I just want one good cold snap before the death ridge anchors in for the spring and summer.
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Quoting nymore:
How can that be, this was posted by TA13 January 9 at 4 pm CST.

83. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:08 PM CST on January 09, 2013 +6
Winter Storm Gandolf has been named.





It is confusing, I was kinda of assuming given the current status for the main event is just now unfolding.



Here is forecasted track.



I wonder if both lows will merge into a dominate low. That may be the case here. I would just assume that the more southerly low is the stronger one and is the one forecasted to produce the 8-10" amounts in Eastern North Dakota tonight.
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Quoting yonzabam:


Personally, I doubt that Tomball is a girl.


You may be right, but it doesn't matter too much- the person involved is busy stirring up trouble again.
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quite a storm coming..GFS at 48 hours......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Quoting goosegirl1:



She's just yanking on Keep's chain.


Personally, I doubt that Tomball is a girl.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.