Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2013

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It was another year of incredible weather extremes globally during 2012. The year featured two of the most expensive weather disasters in world history--Hurricane Sandy and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012, which will both cost more than $50 billion. Thankfully, no disasters had a death toll in excess of 2,000, though the 1,901 people dead or missing due to Super Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines may rank as that nation's 2nd deadliest typhoon ever. Twenty-six weather disasters costing at least $1 billion occurred globally, according to insurance broker AON Benfield. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters in 2011. Nine billion-dollar weather disasters hit China, their highest total in a decade of record-keeping. I present for you, now, the top ten global weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact:



1) New Record Minimum for Arctic Sea Ice (September 16)
Sea ice extent in the Arctic fell to 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that 2012's Arctic weather was much cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during 2012s minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean." Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The fall air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is that is causes increased melting in Greenland, contributing to sea level rise.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day near the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. It won't be many years before Santa's workshop needs pontoons in the summer to stay afloat.

2) Agricultural Drought in the U.S., Europe, and Asia (Summer)
Drought is civilization's great enemy, and the most dangerous threat from global warming. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. In a harbinger of things to come, severe droughts affected important agricultural regions across the globe during summer 2012, including eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. Wheat, corn, and soybean crops were among those heavily impacted; global food prices rose by 10 percent during July. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August, and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is going to be one of the top-five most expensive weather disasters in world history.


Figure 2. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.

3) Superstorm Sandy (October 29)
Hurricane Sandy was the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. Ten hours before landfall, at 9:30 am EDT October 29, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to more than five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the U.S. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall in excess of 12 inches to the mid-Atlantic, and blizzard conditions to the central and southern Appalachians. Sandy's late-season show of unprecedented strength, unusual track, and exceptionally damaging storm surge were made more likely due to climate change, and the storm helped bring more awareness and debate about the threat of climate change to the U.S. than any event since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Figure 3. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

4) Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Glacier Calving (July)
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the Greenland ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. But during four consecutive days July 11 - 14, temperatures rose above freezing at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle. Melting of the ice sheet dramatically accelerated, and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. This was the greatest melt since 1889, according to ice core records. On July 16, an iceberg twice the size of Manhattan calved from the Petermann Glacier in Northeast Greenland. This was the second huge ice island to calve from the glacier since 2010. The glacier's margins have now retreated to the farthest point in the last 150 years. The record melt in Greenland caused the highest loss of ice mass observed in the satellite era, and melting from Greenland is now thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total.


Figure 4. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

5) Super Typhoon Bopha (December 3 - 4)
The deadliest weather disaster of 2012 was Super Typhoon Bopha. Bopha was the strongest typhoon ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead or missing, mostly on the island of Mindanao. If the missing people are presumed dead, this total would make Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.04 billion, Bopha is the most costly typhoon ever to hit the Philippines. The previous record was the $600 million price tag of 2009's Typhoon Parma.


Figure 5. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

6) Northern Hemisphere Warmth (throughout 2012)
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere reached record warm monthly values for four consecutive months (April - July). Much of the unusual warmth occurred in North America; Canada was 3rd warmest on record for the period January- September, and the United States had its warmest year on record. Many European countries and Russia had record to near-record warm summer temperatures in 2012.


Figure 6. This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River on June 28, 2012, as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in Carpentersville, IL imag credit: wunderphotographer pjpix.

7) Eurasian Continent Cold Wave (January 24 - February 17)
Europe's worst cold snap in at least 26 years hit central and eastern Europe hard during a 3-week period in late January and the first half of February. The 824 deaths being blamed on the cold wave made it 2012's second deadliest weather disaster. Parts of the Danube River froze over for the first time in 25 years, and Northeast China through eastern Inner Mongolia recorded extremely cold minimum temperatures ranging between -30°C to -40°C.


Figure 7. Snow falls in Trogir, Croatia on February 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer antoniomise.

8) China Floods (July 21 - 22)
Torrential downpours on July 21 - 22 affected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, with several stations recording their highest daily precipitation on record. Mentougou recorded an impressive 305.2 mm (12 inches) of precipitation in one day. The floods killed 129 people and did $4.8 billion in damage, one of a record nine billion-dollar weather disasters to affect China in 2012.


Figure 8. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says these were the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

9) Pakistan Floods (August 21 - September 30)
Torrential monsoon rains caused deadly floods in Pakistan, with Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces the hardest hit. Over 5 million people and over 400,000 hectares of crops were affected by the floods, with more than 460,000 houses and infrastructures damaged or destroyed. The death toll of 455 made it Earth's 3rd deadliest weather-related disaster of 2012.


Figure 9. A driver makes his way on a street flooded from heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

10) African Floods (July - October)
Heavy rains in Nigeria killed at least 431, making it Earth's 4th deadliest weather disaster of 2012. Over 3 million people were affected by flooding across 15 countries in Africa, most notably Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The floods destroyed farmlands, homes, and schools, and caused outbreaks of cholera and other diseases.

Other Top Ten Weather Lists of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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explosive ?

Science is Logically and Scientifically derived.

What any Single Human believes is the opine of the speaker.

Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center



Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.


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223. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
9:12 AM WST January 12 2013
=========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (935 hPa) located at 18.8S 111.8E or 435 km northwest of Exmouth and 720 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
160 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
160 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to move to the south southwest and pass well west of the Northwest Cape on Sunday.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour may develop in coastal areas between Onslow and Exmouth later Saturday, extending south to Cape Cuvier on Sunday. Gales may extend south to Denham late on Sunday or Monday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast than expected.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast overnight tonight and continue into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Onslow to Cape Cuvier, including Exmouth

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cape Cuvier to Denham including Carnarvon

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.6S 111.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.7S 110.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 24.1S 109.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 28.6S 108.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle appears to have peaked in intensity overnight, but recent imagery shows a weakness in the eastern eye wall, most evident on microwave. Dvorak DT estimates have fluctuated between 5.0 and 6.5 from 1700 to 2300 UTC with recent images trending down. The most recent three hour average would indicate a FT of 5.5 although a CI of 6.0 is maintained suggesting an intensity of 100 knots. AMSU/SATCON estimates are slightly lower.

Moderate easterly shear may be having an impact on the system and as the cyclone moves south of 20.0S it should encounter sea surface temperatures less than 26C on Sunday. Hence a weakening trend is forecast, but may remain at cyclone intensity to Tuesday well off the west coast.

Expected motion is south southwest for the next 48 hours and then a more southerly track is likely in the following days. This leaves the cyclone sufficiently off the coast that a coastal impact is not the likely scenario. The greatest risk period for gales on the coast is during Sunday in the Exmouth-Ningaloo area, as models suggest a slight expansion of gales on the eastern side. There is still sufficient uncertainty on how far off the coast Narelle will be off the west coast later on Sunday and Monday to maintain a precautionary watch for west coastal areas south to Denham.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast Saturday night and Sunday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast likely to push tides above the highest astronomical tide at least towards Shark Bay at least.

Although widespread heavy rain is not expected in the Pilbara, the remnants of the system may bring some rain to the Gascoyne and southern parts of the state from Sunday to Tuesday.
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From The Conversation:

'One funeral at a time': Big Bang denial and the search for truth

by Michael J. I. Brown



We are living in an era of science denial. An era when well-established facts are disputed, fake experts are interviewed by the media and blog posts trump science papers.

It's an era of vaccine denial, evolution denial, and of course, climate change denial.

I'd also add Big Bang denial to that list. Sure, it might be more esoteric than climate change denial, but it's attracting increasing amounts of attention, thanks to the efforts of people such as US congressman Paul Broun, who declared late last year:

All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and the Big Bang Theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of hell.

In living memory, the most vocal opposition to the Big Bang has gone from the realms of legitimate scientific debate to that of science denial.

But how did this come to pass? What are the origins of Big Bang denial? And does it provides clues about the future of science denial generally?

Continue Reading >>
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221. etxwx
$2 billion proposed to ensure water supply
By Matthew Tresaugue - Houston Chronicle 01.11.13

Excerpt: A key Texas House member is proposing that the drought-plagued state invest $2 billion in new reservoirs, pipelines and other water-supply projects to satisfy the demands of its rapidly growing population. Rep. Allan Ritter, a Nederland Republican, filed two bills Thursday that would allow a one-time transfer from the state's rainy day fund into a new account to help pay for water-related infrastructure.

House Bills 4 and 11, if adopted, would mark the first time the state has funded its long-range water plan, which warns of grave shortages by 2060 without more supplies. The money would be part of a revolving, low-interest loan program in which the state would lend to cities and other entities for water-supply projects. Once a loan is repaid, other projects could get financing.

The proposal has the support of House Speaker Joe Straus, a San Antonio Republican who has said Texas' water needs will be a high priority during the legislative session. He is expected to reappoint Ritter as chairman of the House's Natural Resources Committee. The bills also received endorsements from groups as diverse as the Sierra Club, the Texas Farm Bureau and Texas Oil & Gas Association.

"Our entire economy depends on swift and appropriate action to address the state's water needs," said Tony Bennett, president of the Texas Association of Manufacturers. The bills "represent a serious response to a critical need."

If Texas does not develop new supplies, state officials say a repeat of the devastating 1950s drought, its worst dry spell on record, could cost businesses and workers $116 billion in lost income by 2060

More details here.
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Heart - Battle of Evermore
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6251
183 Levi32: Australia dodges Narelle...

The wording makes it seem as if Australians wanted it to miss... whereas I suspect that like Texans of 2011&2012, many would have welcomed a landfalling TropicalCyclone for its drought-busting rain... as well as a partial/regional damper on its extremely hazardous FireSeason this year.
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Link for #216

http://www.culturalcognition.net/


One such paper:

Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus


Why do members of the public disagree -- sharply and persistently -- about facts on which expert scientists largely agree? We designed a study to test a distinctive explanation: the cultural cognition of scientific consensus. The "cultural cognition of risk" refers to the tendency of individuals to form risk perceptions that are congenial to their values. The study, published in the Journal of Risk Research, presents both correlational and experimental evidence confirming that cultural cognition shapes individuals beliefs about the existence of scientific consensus, and the process by which they form such beliefs, relating to climate change, the disposal of nuclear wastes, and the effect of permitting concealed possession of handguns. The implications of this dynamic for science communication and public policy-making are discussed.
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Thanks again Levi, for being a "voice of reason and explanation" with this "explosive" topic.
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The Cultural Cognition Project
at Yale Law School

The Cultural Cognition Project is a group of scholars interested in studying how cultural values shape public risk perceptions and related policy beliefs. Cultural cognition refers to the tendency of individuals to conform their beliefs about disputed matters of fact (e.g., whether global warming is a serious threat; whether the death penalty deters murder; whether gun control makes society more safe or less) to values that define their cultural identities. Project members are using the methods of various disciplines -- including social psychology, anthropology, communications, and political science -- to chart the impact of this phenomenon and to identify the mechanisms through which it operates. The Project also has an explicit normative objective: to identify processes of democratic decisionmaking by which society can resolve culturally grounded differences in belief in a manner that is both congenial to persons of diverse cultural outlooks and consistent with sound public policymaking.
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ALL I WANNA DO IS MAKE LOVE TO YOU
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6251


Tropical seasonal Time Lag runs round 4-7 weeks.

Esp in the Atlantic, a smaller Basin.

Tropics
In tropical and subtropical regions it is more common to speak of the rainy (or wet, or monsoon) season versus the dry season, because the amount of precipitation may vary more dramatically than the average temperature. For example, in Nicaragua the dry season (November to April) is called 'summer' and the rainy season (May to October) is called 'winter', even though it is located in the northern hemisphere. In other tropical areas a three-way division into hot, rainy, and cool season is used. There is no noticeable change in the amount of sunlight at different time of the year. However, many regions (such as the northern Indian ocean) are subject to monsoon rain and wind cycles.

A study of temperature records over the past 300 years[5][page needed] shows that the climatic seasons, and thus the seasonal year, are governed by the anomalistic year rather than the tropical year.

Mid latitude thermal lag

In meteorological terms, the summer solstice and winter solstice (or the maximum and minimum insolation, respectively) do not fall in the middles of summer and winter. The heights of these seasons occur up to seven weeks later because of seasonal lag. Seasons, though, are not always defined in meteorological terms.

In astronomical reckoning, the solstices and equinoxes ought to be the middle of the respective seasons, but, because of thermal lag, regions with a continental climate which predominate in the Northern hemisphere often consider these four dates to be the start of the seasons as in the diagram, with the cross-quarter days considered seasonal midpoints. The length of these seasons is not uniform because of the elliptical orbit of the earth and its different speeds along that orbit.




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Some Information!!!!!!!! The Nino and La nina event tend to develop during de period
April- June, this is why is so difficult the exact forecast right now!!!!!!!!!The best example was last year
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Quoting originalLT:
Levi, thanks for your comment, # 106. Then to what do you attribute the retreat of the glaciers and the loss of Polar sea ice( hitting a summer low in 2012) Could it be, what I might call, a global "heat balance transfer" due to the fact that there is evidence of the Antarctic ice fields are actually growing slightly?--One part of the earth cooling down, but being compensated by another part of the earth warming up? So there is no net change over all?


Well people can't make the mistake of assuming that if the temperature trend has been "flat" for several years, that the sea ice and glaciers should not be continuing to retreat.

It's like the diurnal solar cycle. The most intense sunshine occurs around high noon, when the sun reaches its "zenith" (not really a zenith unless at equator). But does the afternoon temperature stop increasing after the sun passes this point? No. Solar radiation flattens out and then decreases, but the net heat flux into the ground remains positive, so the temperature continues to increase for a few more hours.

Analogously, so it is also likely to be with the sea ice and glaciers. The global or regional temperature may flatten out, but does that mean the ice will suddenly stop decreasing? No. There is a balance, an equilibrium, that must be reached, and if the temperature does level out, that would likely take years to occur, especially because of ice loss feedbacks like increased ocean exposure to sunlight, loss of albedo, loss of multi-year ice, etc..
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Typhoon 08S

NARELLE

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JAN 2013 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 18:49:35 S Lon : 111:20:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 915.5mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.0 4.7

Center Temp : -50.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 168km
- Environmental MSLP : 999mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 44.0 degrees





JAVA Movie
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210. Skyepony (Mod)
NARELLE
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39436
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Narelle

Rainbow Animated GIF

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Levi, thanks for your comment, # 106. Then to what do you attribute the retreat of the glaciers and the loss of Polar sea ice( hitting a summer low in 2012) Could it be, what I might call, a global "heat balance transfer" due to the fact that there is evidence of the Antarctic ice fields are actually growing slightly?--One part of the earth cooling down, but being compensated by another part of the earth warming up? So there is no net change over all?
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 5:30 am WST on Saturday 12 January 2013

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Mardie to Cape Cuvier.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cape Cuvier to Denham.

At 5:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, Category 5 was estimated to be
445 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and
730 kilometres north northwest of Carnarvon and
moving southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south to
southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop in coastal areas
between Mardie and Exmouth during Saturday, then extend south to Cape Cuvier
later on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area during Saturday with damaging
wind gusts to 125 kilometres per hour possible overnight Saturday if the
cyclone takes a track closer to the coast. However given the consistent
movement of Narelle to the south to southwest movement closer to the coast is
now less likely.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Denham and winds along the west Pilbara
coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with
isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne
over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high
tide mark Saturday morning and again Saturday night with flooding of low lying
coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west
coast later Saturday and into early next week.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Mardie to Coral Bay including
Onslow and Exmouth should be taking precautions.
Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.5 degrees South 111.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Saturday 12 January.

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 18.4S
Longitude: 112.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [229 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 931 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm [405 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
12: 12/0600: 19.5S 111.6E: 045 [080]: 105 [195]: 927
24: 12/1800: 20.5S 111.1E: 070 [130]: 105 [195]: 926
36: 13/0600: 21.8S 110.3E: 090 [165]: 105 [195]: 927
48: 13/1800: 23.4S 109.7E: 110 [200]: 085 [155]: 946
60: 14/0600: 25.7S 109.0E: 130 [235]: 065 [120]: 964
72: 14/1800: 27.8S 108.8E: 145 [270]: 045 [085]: 978
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has continued to intensify in the last 12 hours,
with a eye evident on the infra-red imagery. Intensity of 100 knots based on the
three-hour average Dvorak DT of 6.0 [eye pattern]. The surrounding shade has
fluctated between black and white with an OW eye. At times the eye has been
quite elongated. ADT estimates the system strength of 130 knots at 1630UTC.

Further intensification is forecast with low [system relative] wind shear and
the system could reach category 5 intensity during Saturday based on its current
trend. The cyclone should gradually weaken as it encounters cooler SSTs from
late Sunday and Monday but may remain at cyclone intensity to Tuesday well off
the west coast.

Expected motion persists to the south southwest for the next 48 hours and then a
more southerly track is likely in the following days. This leaves the cyclone
sufficiently off the coast. It is most likely that coastal areas will only
experience the outer edge of the cyclone and a severe impact is not expected.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast tonight and
Saturday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast on the weekend and into
early next week.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
205. etxwx
EPA cites Shell for air pollution in Arctic drilling
By Mary Pemberton, Associated Press / January 11, 2013

Anchorage, Alaska -
Excerpt: Two Royal Dutch Shell PLC ships operating in the Arctic emitted excessive amounts of air pollution during drilling operations last summer off Alaska's northern coastline, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
The federal agency announced Thursday that it issued Shell notices of air quality violations coming from its drill rig and drill ship during what was a shortened Arctic drilling season of about two months. Shell's drill rig Kulluk and drill ship Noble Discoverer emitted excessive amounts of nitrogen oxide. There were multiple violations for each ship, the agency said.


More here.
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Quoting DDR:

Hello and Thank you


Speaking of the weather in the Eastern Caribbean,here in PR contrary to you over there we are starting the year in a precipitation deficit -1.13. Let's see if we get a few fronts and troughs up here to get normal rain amounts. The problem is that the dry season is approaching. (Febuary,March)

Link
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Quoting DDR:
Thanks Levi
We aren't in La nina but we're experiencing similar conditions in Trinidad and Tobago,its raining a lot for January.

We are in a typical El Nino, with very hot east coast and cold Coral/Tasman sea
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
It was a rainy night when he came into my sight
standing by the road
no umbrella
no coat
So I pulled up along side and offered him a ride
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Quoting Gearsts:
Do you think La nina will take a stronger hold or will it warm up by the hurricane season?


Really hard to say since late winter and spring is the most difficult time to forecast ENSO (usually), especially when December-January is usually the time when an ENSO phase is peaking, not flipping around near neutral, so there is additional uncertainty.

Similar MEI events seem to usually continue to trend cooler for the following summer:

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We need more Patrap's in our "too busy" world. Thank you friend
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199. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi DDR. ENSO is right now almost on La Nina status as CPC on this week's update had Nino 3.4 at -0.3C.The TAO graphic shows it well and the SOI after plunging to almost -10 now is going up.But as Levi said,ENSO is an enigma and forecasting how it will be by the Summer is challenging. Let's see how things stand by March and April and we can go from there.




Hello Tropicsweatherpr, Thank you
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198. VR46L
Narelle Water Vapour Imagery

Loop embedded

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Quoting DDR:
Thanks Levi
We aren't in La nina but we're experiencing similar conditions in Trinidad and Tobago,its raining a lot for January.


Hi DDR. ENSO is right now almost on La Nina status as CPC on this week's update had Nino 3.4 at -0.3C.The TAO graphic shows it well and the SOI after plunging to almost -10 now is going up.But as Levi said,ENSO is an enigma and forecasting how it will be by the Summer is challenging. Let's see how things stand by March and April and we can go from there.



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Quoting Levi32:


Sure looks like a weak Nina at the moment.

Do you think La nina will take a stronger hold or will it warm up by the hurricane season?
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195. DDR
Quoting Levi32:


Sure looks like a weak Nina at the moment.


hmmmm...wow,nice!!!
Do you think it could possibly strenghten?
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Portlight Disaster Relief
Portlight & Bona Responds Ramp it Up in NY



www.portlight.org

We're excited to bring you an update on our activities in post-Sandy New York! Working with Jim Mahar and the good folks from Bona Responds, a ramp has been built for young Ryan in Breezy Point, who has cerebral palsy. His dad was having a tough time getting him out of the house, to and from school, after their lift was destroyed. Portlight helped with the lumber, and Bona Responds built the 55 linear feet of ramp. They're doing amazing work, in spite of freezing temperatures and short days. They even hang drywall in the dark!

Many thanks to the Robin Hood Foundation, the Disability Funders Network, the Kessler Foundation,
and as ALWAYS, to YOU, for your continued support!!

Ryan LOVES his new ramp!!

That smile says it all!







Working on the deck (Portlight)
Volunteer Greg Laughnan screws down deck boards for the ramp.
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Quoting DDR:
Thanks Levi
We aren't in La nina but we're experiencing similar condition in Trinidad and Tobago,its raining a lot for January.


Sure looks like a weak Nina at the moment.

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192. DDR
Thanks Levi
We aren't in La nina but we're experiencing similar conditions in Trinidad and Tobago,its raining a lot for January.
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191. etxwx
Apparently the bad winter storm in the Middle East has a name also: Olga
Winter storm Olga leaves Jordan in chaos
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Levi. Higher pressures in the Atlantic means strong ridge that means not so warm waters which translates in less tropical activity in this basin?


In this case it's less about the trade winds and more about the fact that high pressure in the tropics means sinking air, and thus less storms. If the high pressure were all to the north but not in the deep tropics, then it would affect the trade winds more.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd be a little worried about that verifying if 1.) the ECMWF (and even its ensembles) did not have a high bias for this product and 2.) if it weren't January.


I haven't noted a particular bias towards high pressure in the Atlantic from the ECMWF. Even in 2012, it didn't do too bad at all for the tropical Atlantic south of 25N, even when the first forecast for the JAS period came out in March.





It struggled to pick up the negative anomalies in the subtropics and mid-latitudes, but all seasonal forecast models usually fail in that regard when it comes to tropical activity north of the tropics.

What could throw a wrench in the forecast is what ENSO decides to do come spring time.
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Quoting etxwx:


Hey AtHome, The Intellicast forecast for Monday in this part of Texas says 50% chance of rain, low of 33F and 10% probability of snow...that should get all the local weathermen excited. Maybe your new avatar pic will come true. :-))


Hey etx! That would get the mets excited. lol. It would be nice to get some snow. Especially since it has looked gloomy and wintry outside for months now it seems. With just a peak here and there of the sun.
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Quoting Levi32:


The ensemble probabilistic distribution is much more helpful:


I'd be a little worried about that verifying if 1.) the ECMWF (and even its ensembles) did not have a high bias for this product and 2.) if it weren't January.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Quoting Levi32:


The ensemble probabilistic distribution is much more helpful:



Hi Levi. Higher pressures in the Atlantic means strong ridge that means not so warm waters which translates in less tropical activity in this basin?
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Sun is up on Narelle.


The latest microwave image shows more greens and yellows surrounding the eye.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
184. etxwx
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
More rain for Louisiana.


Hey AtHome, The Intellicast forecast for Monday in this part of Texas says 50% chance of rain, low of 33F and 10% probability of snow...that should get all the local weathermen excited. Maybe your new avatar pic will come true. :-))
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Australia dodges Narelle, but the GFS says a new severe cyclone of sub-960mb will develop in a few days and hit the country in about a week.

GFS Day 8 - click for larger:

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182. VR46L
Quoting stormchaser43:
gee much happier now.We are actually laughing.I agree PBW has good sense of humor.that was pretty funny.


One of my favourite hobbies came up .. shredding men ...lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thank you for being so helpful, ECMWF.



My thinking for the upcoming hurricane season hasn't changed much since November. Probably 15-18 named storms.


The ensemble probabilistic distribution is much more helpful:

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For those who have not heard, Hurricane Isaac's Tropical Cyclone Report will be out in late January. There will not be much change for its report.

Hurricane Sandy's TCR will be out in early February. Expect an upgrade to Category 3 intensity (at Cuba landfall) as was hinted at by discussion at the AMS, and potentially a brief subtropical classification before extratropical landfall on New Jersey.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
179. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
9:00 AM FST January 12 2013
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1002 hPa) located at 14.6S 178.7W is reported as moving slowly. Position fair based on multi-spectral visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor. Deep convection persistent in the northeastern quadrant of system. TD 08F lies under an upper anticyclone in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and gradually move it southward with some intensification.

The potential for this depression to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is MODERATE TO HIGH.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Thank you for being so helpful, ECMWF.



My thinking for the upcoming hurricane season hasn't changed much since November. Probably 15-18 named storms.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
It looks like a real arctic chill could hit the NE and north-central areas in 10 days or so, still a ways off but the GFS has been very consistent.

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Quoting DDR:
Good evening
Levi could you please post some of those precipitation forecast for the tropical atlantic from some of the models,TIA.


GFS next 8 days:



JMA SINTEX-F1 Mar-May Anomaly:



EUROSIP Feb-Apr:



CFSv2 Feb-Apr:

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More rain for Louisiana.



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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