Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2013

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It was another year of incredible weather extremes globally during 2012. The year featured two of the most expensive weather disasters in world history--Hurricane Sandy and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012, which will both cost more than $50 billion. Thankfully, no disasters had a death toll in excess of 2,000, though the 1,901 people dead or missing due to Super Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines may rank as that nation's 2nd deadliest typhoon ever. Twenty-six weather disasters costing at least $1 billion occurred globally, according to insurance broker AON Benfield. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters in 2011. Nine billion-dollar weather disasters hit China, their highest total in a decade of record-keeping. I present for you, now, the top ten global weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact:



1) New Record Minimum for Arctic Sea Ice (September 16)
Sea ice extent in the Arctic fell to 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that 2012's Arctic weather was much cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during 2012s minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean." Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The fall air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is that is causes increased melting in Greenland, contributing to sea level rise.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day near the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. It won't be many years before Santa's workshop needs pontoons in the summer to stay afloat.

2) Agricultural Drought in the U.S., Europe, and Asia (Summer)
Drought is civilization's great enemy, and the most dangerous threat from global warming. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. In a harbinger of things to come, severe droughts affected important agricultural regions across the globe during summer 2012, including eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. Wheat, corn, and soybean crops were among those heavily impacted; global food prices rose by 10 percent during July. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August, and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is going to be one of the top-five most expensive weather disasters in world history.


Figure 2. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.

3) Superstorm Sandy (October 29)
Hurricane Sandy was the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. Ten hours before landfall, at 9:30 am EDT October 29, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to more than five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the U.S. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall in excess of 12 inches to the mid-Atlantic, and blizzard conditions to the central and southern Appalachians. Sandy's late-season show of unprecedented strength, unusual track, and exceptionally damaging storm surge were made more likely due to climate change, and the storm helped bring more awareness and debate about the threat of climate change to the U.S. than any event since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Figure 3. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

4) Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Glacier Calving (July)
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the Greenland ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. But during four consecutive days July 11 - 14, temperatures rose above freezing at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle. Melting of the ice sheet dramatically accelerated, and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. This was the greatest melt since 1889, according to ice core records. On July 16, an iceberg twice the size of Manhattan calved from the Petermann Glacier in Northeast Greenland. This was the second huge ice island to calve from the glacier since 2010. The glacier's margins have now retreated to the farthest point in the last 150 years. The record melt in Greenland caused the highest loss of ice mass observed in the satellite era, and melting from Greenland is now thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total.


Figure 4. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

5) Super Typhoon Bopha (December 3 - 4)
The deadliest weather disaster of 2012 was Super Typhoon Bopha. Bopha was the strongest typhoon ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead or missing, mostly on the island of Mindanao. If the missing people are presumed dead, this total would make Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.04 billion, Bopha is the most costly typhoon ever to hit the Philippines. The previous record was the $600 million price tag of 2009's Typhoon Parma.


Figure 5. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

6) Northern Hemisphere Warmth (throughout 2012)
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere reached record warm monthly values for four consecutive months (April - July). Much of the unusual warmth occurred in North America; Canada was 3rd warmest on record for the period January- September, and the United States had its warmest year on record. Many European countries and Russia had record to near-record warm summer temperatures in 2012.


Figure 6. This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River on June 28, 2012, as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in Carpentersville, IL imag credit: wunderphotographer pjpix.

7) Eurasian Continent Cold Wave (January 24 - February 17)
Europe's worst cold snap in at least 26 years hit central and eastern Europe hard during a 3-week period in late January and the first half of February. The 824 deaths being blamed on the cold wave made it 2012's second deadliest weather disaster. Parts of the Danube River froze over for the first time in 25 years, and Northeast China through eastern Inner Mongolia recorded extremely cold minimum temperatures ranging between -30°C to -40°C.


Figure 7. Snow falls in Trogir, Croatia on February 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer antoniomise.

8) China Floods (July 21 - 22)
Torrential downpours on July 21 - 22 affected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, with several stations recording their highest daily precipitation on record. Mentougou recorded an impressive 305.2 mm (12 inches) of precipitation in one day. The floods killed 129 people and did $4.8 billion in damage, one of a record nine billion-dollar weather disasters to affect China in 2012.


Figure 8. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says these were the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

9) Pakistan Floods (August 21 - September 30)
Torrential monsoon rains caused deadly floods in Pakistan, with Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces the hardest hit. Over 5 million people and over 400,000 hectares of crops were affected by the floods, with more than 460,000 houses and infrastructures damaged or destroyed. The death toll of 455 made it Earth's 3rd deadliest weather-related disaster of 2012.


Figure 9. A driver makes his way on a street flooded from heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

10) African Floods (July - October)
Heavy rains in Nigeria killed at least 431, making it Earth's 4th deadliest weather disaster of 2012. Over 3 million people were affected by flooding across 15 countries in Africa, most notably Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The floods destroyed farmlands, homes, and schools, and caused outbreaks of cholera and other diseases.

Other Top Ten Weather Lists of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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here is the 700mb layer

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Did anybody see the 0z GFS?

The North Pole moved south apparently.

Evening temperatures at or below -40F across Wisconsin and Minnesota, and near freezing all the way down to the Gulf Coast.



That's not normal TAWX13, lol..
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well looks like i got to tell ya

some deep cold coming for the deep south
looks like its time to fire up the fans

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Quoting AussieStorm:


Thinking of you mate!



Now THAT'S what I'm talkin' 'bout!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
Atlanta:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
318. beell
ok, what ever. just thought it was worth a mention.

later, ya'll.

If you want to add a little hype using the 850mb chart go ahead. At least tell us how 850mb temps correlate to surface temps.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wait...the GFS makes it colder in later frames.

Temperatures in the single digits all the way down to central Georgia. O_O

Well, the climatological norms (old school?) has kept North/Central Georgia in the 0-10 degree F range, so for the first time in 20 years we may have a "seasonal" winter cold outbreak.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Perhaps I'll get my Gulf Coast snowstorm!


Nah... prolly not.

I can dream tho.
I'm goofy that way.


Thinking of you mate!

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315. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
-40C is equal to -40F. Just sayin'...
Quoting Neapolitan:
-40C is equal to -40F. Just sayin'...


850mb equals about 5,000'agl-jus sayin'
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Quoting beell:


No doubt about the cold...but that is an 850mb temp chart in C

-40C = -40F.

Yes, it is 850 millibars, but that's still bitter cold. The GFS 2m temperatures show lows under 10F by the 24th for Atlanta, GA.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting beell:


No doubt about the cold...but that is an 850mb temp chart in C
You're right about the altitude, but -40C is equal to -40F. Just sayin'...
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312. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Did anybody see the 0z GFS?

The North Pole moved south apparently.

Evening temperatures at or below -40F across Wisconsin and Minnesota, and near freezing all the way down to the Gulf Coast.



No doubt about the cold...but that is an 850mb temp chart in C°
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wait...the GFS makes it colder in later frames.

Temperatures in the single digits all the way down to central Georgia. O_O

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Did anybody see the 0z GFS?

The North Pole moved south apparently.

Evening temperatures at or below -40F across Wisconsin and Minnesota, and near freezing all the way down to the Gulf Coast.





Perhaps I'll get my Gulf Coast snowstorm!


Nah... prolly not.

I can dream tho.
I'm goofy that way.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
0Z ECMWF is no different for the Northern USA, but keeps warmer temperatures along the Gulf Coast.



That cold airmass will eventually make its prescence felt in the eastern part of the conus but will be modified by the time it reaches me.
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0Z ECMWF is no different for the Northern USA, but keeps warmer temperatures along the Gulf Coast.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Did anybody see the 0z GFS?

The North Pole moved south apparently.

Evening temperatures at or below -40F across Wisconsin and Minnesota, and near freezing all the way down to the Gulf Coast.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
LANDSLIDE IN HILLY SOUTHERN CHINA KILLS 46



BEIJING (AP) — Authorities have pulled out all 46 bodies that were buried by a landslide that swept through a village in the steep, snow-dusted mountains of southern China, state media reported Saturday.

The landslide smothered 14 homes in Zhaojiagou village in Yunnan province, burying 46 people, the local county government of Zhenxiong said on its official website.

The state-run China Central Television said Saturday that all the bodies had been recovered.

By Saturday afternoon, the official Xinhua News Agency had identified all the victims, including 19 children and seven people who were more than 60 years old. The agency ran their names on its website.

The Zhenxiong government said in a statement that the mudslide was caused by soil that had become heavily saturated from continuous rain and snow over the past month.

There were other factors, including the slope's steepness, its poor soil composition and the impact from an earthquake, the government said.

The official statement denied any direct relation between the disaster and mining activities in the area and concluded that the mudslide was a natural disaster.

Photos posted on the website of the Yunnan Daily, the official newspaper of the provincial government, showed rescue crews in orange jumpsuits using construction machinery to sift through massive piles of mud and earth. Behind them stood hillsides and pine trees covered in snow, signs of the unusually cold winter that has hit all of China.

Mudslides occur periodically in the region, which is prone to earthquakes and heavy rains. In a nearby county, 81 people died in an earthquake in September. A month later, a landslide buried a primary school, killing 18 students and one other person.
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Current Jet Stream from WU..




Snow Map..WU..


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Click Image for Link.

Manam volcano (Papua New Guinea): large explosive eruption sending ash plume to 45,000 ft altitude.

An large eruption seems to have occurred this morning around 05:30 GMT from Manam volcano north of New Guinea. VAAC Darwin reported an ash plume rising to 45,000 ft (approx. 14 km) altitude.
A hot spot is visible on MODIS satellite data. For the moment, no precise other information about the nature of the eruption is available, as the island is remote and most of its population had been relocated after the last major activity in 2004.
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Morning All,
Made it to the Upstate in SC on Wed..
Drizzly rain for 2 days and now fog very thick..
I love it when in the mountains,,
Sooo quite here.. :)
Chances of Rain called for for next 5 days..
70 highs w/50 lows..
Oddly warm for this time of year here..
I usually experience some snowfall here..
May happen yet..
I don't have any of my image links up here so I'll have to rely on ya'll to keep me "visually informed"..LOL.. :)

Webcam near me this am..



... Dense fog advisory remains in effect until 10 am EST this
morning...

* locations... the foothills... Piedmont and northern mountains of
North Carolina... upstate South Carolina... and extreme northeast
Georgia.

* Visibility... one quarter mile or less at times in dense fog.

* Impacts... low visibilities will cause problems for drivers.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. If driving... slow down...
use your headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Eye becoming better defined again it appears.


The eye is no longer on microwave.

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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0716 UTC 12/01/2013
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.2S
Longitude: 111.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [201 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots [175 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots [250 km/h]
Central Pressure: 938 hPa

Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/1800: 20.0S 111.3E: 045 [080]: 085 [155]: 949
+24: 13/0600: 21.3S 110.6E: 070 [130]: 070 [130]: 961
+36: 13/1800: 22.9S 110.0E: 090 [165]: 060 [110]: 970
+48: 14/0600: 24.9S 109.5E: 110 [200]: 050 [095]: 979
+60: 14/1800: 27.0S 109.3E: 130 [235]: 040 [075]: 986
+72: 15/0600: 28.9S 109.7E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 992
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle peaked in intensity overnight and has weakened
in the last -9h with the effects of some easterly shear and restricted outflow
on the eastern flank apparent. Dvorak DT estimates have fluctuated between 5.0
and 5.5 in the past 5h, with the CI held at 6.0, consistent with ADT.
The effects of moderate easterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures [<26C
south of 20S] on Sunday. Hence a weakening trend is forecast, but may remain at
cyclone intensity
to Tuesday well off the west coast.


Expected motion is generally to the south southwest on Sunday and Monday. The
greatest risk period for gales on the coast is during Sunday in the
Exmouth-Ningaloo area. There is still sufficient uncertainty on how far off the
coast Narelle will be later on Monday to maintain a precautionary watch for west
coastal areas south to Denham.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast tonight and on
Sunday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast likely to push tides above
the highest astronomical tide at least towards Shark Bay at least.

Although widespread heavy rain is not expected in the west Pilbara, upslide to
the southeast of the cyclone may bring some rain to the Gascoyne and southern
parts of the state from Sunday to Tuesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Miami NWS Disco

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH INTO MONTANA/DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BY
DAY 10/JAN 22 - A 1052MB ARCTIC HIGH. WHETHER OR NOT THIS AIRMASS
PLUNGES ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S./FLORIDA IS JUST TOO
EARLY TO TELL, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL LATE JANUARY
COLD SPELL.
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Quoting Civicane49:


Yep. Narelle appears to be on the weakening trend.




Eye becoming better defined again it appears.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
Good morning all. I'd sure like to see that trough move to the east a little faster and cool us down to normal. I had to run the ac last night. That's just wrong in the middle of January!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
Good morning. Hopefully,this weak frontal boundary erases somewhat the rain deficit that we have starting this year.The beaches are not good to visit if you are going to the water.as the swells are very high.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
621 AM AST SAT JAN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL STILL FORCE THE
SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FA
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER...MORE
STABLE AND COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING
EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN EMBEDDED MESOSCALE
VORTEX...SHOULD RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA. THEREAFTER...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY...RESULTING
IN GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THAT SAID...
BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS
AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. THEN...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH A PART
OF TUESDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCALLY AGAIN...FOLLOWED BY AN
OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
PROBABLY THURSDAY ALSO...BUT STILL WITH THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND...
PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES BEGIN FOR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...WITH VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES...
FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. HIGH SURF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AND
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR VARIOUS NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING COASTAL AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO ALL LOCAL
MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FORECAST DETAILS AND AREAL DELINEATIONS OF
WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 77 80 77 / 70 40 20 10
STT 83 76 82 76 / 40 40 20 10
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The eye has become obscured on satellite imagery. Expect the weakening trend to begin as Narelle is soon to cross the sea surface temperatures below 26C. Rapid weakening is anticipated by the next few days as shear is forecast to increase significantly by then.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Satellite image of Narelle earlier from NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
291. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BISING
5:00 PM PhST January 12 2013
==============================

Tropical Depression "Bising" has maintained its strength as it moves in a north northeast direction

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Bising (1004 hPa) located at 15.6N 125.6E or 390 km east of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northeast at 11 knots.

Additional Information
======================
All Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 05-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern Luzon and over the eastern seaboards of central and southern Luzon and Visayas due to Tropical Depression "Bising" and the Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the local disaster risk reduction and management councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

She's not looking that good on microwave either.



Yep. Narelle appears to be on the weakening trend.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting Civicane49:
Eye continues to become less-defined:


She's not looking that good on microwave either.


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288. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST January 12 2013
===============================

At 6;00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 14.0N 127.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. This depression is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JAN 2013 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 19:36:14 S Lon : 110:54:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 931.1mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.3 4.7

Center Temp : -69.7C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 187km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 44.8 degrees



Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Eye continues to become less-defined:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting PedleyCA:
ALL I WANNA DO IS MAKE LOVE TO YOU


Say I Love You
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Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue%u200F@RyanMaue

GFS 00z serves up powerful, 938 mb warm-seclusion extratropical cyclone in Western N. Pacific in 3-4 days. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/289957929887621 121/photo/1


That extratropical low will be from Tropical Depression Bising, which is currently east of the Philippines. It is forecast to move northward and then generally northeastward as it becomes an extratropical cyclone.

Here is the cyclone phase from the FSU:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
283. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
18:00 PM FST January 12 2013
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1001 hPa) located at 15.0S 179.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving slowly. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared and visible imagery imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization remains poor. Deep convection persistent in the northeast quadrant of the system center in past 24 hours. TD08F lies under an upper anticyclone in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Most global models agree on a southeastward movement with some development.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.9S 179.0W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 16.8S 178.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 18.8S 175.9W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
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Quoting PedleyCA:
ALL I WANNA DO IS MAKE LOVE TO YOU
One of the best voices ever... Thanks for sharing Ped
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Quoting KoritheMan:


GFS at 96 hours:



Euro at 96 hours:



CMC at 96 hours:



NOGAPS at 96 hours:



The storm relative isobaric fields, even amongst the GFS, strongly resemble a cold core system, which is further supported by upper air forecasts suggesting that the system will be collocated with an intense upper low. Remember also how many times we were tricked in November and December when the models depicted similar scenarios.
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 00z serves up powerful, 938 mb warm-seclusion extratropical cyclone in Western N. Pacific in 3-4 days. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/289957929887621 121/photo/1
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280. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #22
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
2:56 PM WST January 12 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (938 hPa) located at 19.2S 111.8E or 390 km northwest of Exmouth and 660 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
160 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
160 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to move to the south southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape on Sunday.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour may develop in coastal areas between Onslow and Cape Cuvier on Sunday. Gales may extend south to Denham late on Sunday or Monday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast than expected.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast overnight tonight and continue into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Onslow to Cape Cuvier, including Exmouth

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cape Cuvier to Denham, including Carnarvon

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.0S 111.3E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 21.3S 110.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 24.9S 109.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 28.9S 109.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle peaked in intensity overnight and has weakened in the last 9 hours with the effects of some easterly shear and restricted outflow on the eastern flank apparent. Dvorak DT estimates have fluctuated between 5.0 and 5.5 in the past 5 hours, with the CI held at 6.0, consistent with ADT.

The effects of moderate easterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures [<26C south of 20.0S] on Sunday. Hence a weakening trend is forecast, but may remain at cyclone intensity to Tuesday well off the west coast.

Expected motion is generally to the south southwest on Sunday and Monday. The greatest risk period for gales on the coast is during Sunday in the Exmouth-Ningaloo area. There is still sufficient uncertainty on how far off the coast Narelle will be later on Monday to maintain a precautionary watch for west coastal areas south to Denham.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast tonight and on Sunday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast likely to push tides above the highest astronomical tide at least towards Shark Bay at least.

Although widespread heavy rain is not expected in the west Pilbara, upslide to the southeast of the cyclone may bring some rain to the Gascoyne and southern parts of the state from Sunday to Tuesday.
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My local forecast blog for the week of 1/12-1/18. This is one of the things I have been working on for the past couple hours. Good night/morning everyone.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting Levi32:


Well people can't make the mistake of assuming that if the temperature trend has been "flat" for several years, that the sea ice and glaciers should not be continuing to retreat.

That's especially true since the temperature trend hasn't been "flat."
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
276. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST January 12 2013
========================================

A slow moving monsoon trough is strengthening over the Arafura Sea. A weak low, (1006 hPa) has formed near 9S 134E and is expected to develop further as it moves
west into the Timor Sea over the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
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Quoting KoritheMan:

12:30 AM*.

1:39am EST* We are in different time zones, remember!?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886

Quoting wxchaser97:


I fixed my few spelling mistakes, the joys of doing two things at similar times at 1:30am.
12:30 AM*.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.