Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2013

Share this Blog
45
+

It was another year of incredible weather extremes globally during 2012. The year featured two of the most expensive weather disasters in world history--Hurricane Sandy and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012, which will both cost more than $50 billion. Thankfully, no disasters had a death toll in excess of 2,000, though the 1,901 people dead or missing due to Super Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines may rank as that nation's 2nd deadliest typhoon ever. Twenty-six weather disasters costing at least $1 billion occurred globally, according to insurance broker AON Benfield. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters in 2011. Nine billion-dollar weather disasters hit China, their highest total in a decade of record-keeping. I present for you, now, the top ten global weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact:



1) New Record Minimum for Arctic Sea Ice (September 16)
Sea ice extent in the Arctic fell to 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that 2012's Arctic weather was much cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during 2012s minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean." Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The fall air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is that is causes increased melting in Greenland, contributing to sea level rise.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day near the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. It won't be many years before Santa's workshop needs pontoons in the summer to stay afloat.

2) Agricultural Drought in the U.S., Europe, and Asia (Summer)
Drought is civilization's great enemy, and the most dangerous threat from global warming. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. In a harbinger of things to come, severe droughts affected important agricultural regions across the globe during summer 2012, including eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. Wheat, corn, and soybean crops were among those heavily impacted; global food prices rose by 10 percent during July. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August, and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is going to be one of the top-five most expensive weather disasters in world history.


Figure 2. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.

3) Superstorm Sandy (October 29)
Hurricane Sandy was the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. Ten hours before landfall, at 9:30 am EDT October 29, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to more than five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the U.S. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall in excess of 12 inches to the mid-Atlantic, and blizzard conditions to the central and southern Appalachians. Sandy's late-season show of unprecedented strength, unusual track, and exceptionally damaging storm surge were made more likely due to climate change, and the storm helped bring more awareness and debate about the threat of climate change to the U.S. than any event since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Figure 3. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

4) Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Glacier Calving (July)
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the Greenland ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. But during four consecutive days July 11 - 14, temperatures rose above freezing at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle. Melting of the ice sheet dramatically accelerated, and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. This was the greatest melt since 1889, according to ice core records. On July 16, an iceberg twice the size of Manhattan calved from the Petermann Glacier in Northeast Greenland. This was the second huge ice island to calve from the glacier since 2010. The glacier's margins have now retreated to the farthest point in the last 150 years. The record melt in Greenland caused the highest loss of ice mass observed in the satellite era, and melting from Greenland is now thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total.


Figure 4. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

5) Super Typhoon Bopha (December 3 - 4)
The deadliest weather disaster of 2012 was Super Typhoon Bopha. Bopha was the strongest typhoon ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead or missing, mostly on the island of Mindanao. If the missing people are presumed dead, this total would make Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.04 billion, Bopha is the most costly typhoon ever to hit the Philippines. The previous record was the $600 million price tag of 2009's Typhoon Parma.


Figure 5. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

6) Northern Hemisphere Warmth (throughout 2012)
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere reached record warm monthly values for four consecutive months (April - July). Much of the unusual warmth occurred in North America; Canada was 3rd warmest on record for the period January- September, and the United States had its warmest year on record. Many European countries and Russia had record to near-record warm summer temperatures in 2012.


Figure 6. This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River on June 28, 2012, as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in Carpentersville, IL imag credit: wunderphotographer pjpix.

7) Eurasian Continent Cold Wave (January 24 - February 17)
Europe's worst cold snap in at least 26 years hit central and eastern Europe hard during a 3-week period in late January and the first half of February. The 824 deaths being blamed on the cold wave made it 2012's second deadliest weather disaster. Parts of the Danube River froze over for the first time in 25 years, and Northeast China through eastern Inner Mongolia recorded extremely cold minimum temperatures ranging between -30°C to -40°C.


Figure 7. Snow falls in Trogir, Croatia on February 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer antoniomise.

8) China Floods (July 21 - 22)
Torrential downpours on July 21 - 22 affected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, with several stations recording their highest daily precipitation on record. Mentougou recorded an impressive 305.2 mm (12 inches) of precipitation in one day. The floods killed 129 people and did $4.8 billion in damage, one of a record nine billion-dollar weather disasters to affect China in 2012.


Figure 8. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says these were the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

9) Pakistan Floods (August 21 - September 30)
Torrential monsoon rains caused deadly floods in Pakistan, with Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces the hardest hit. Over 5 million people and over 400,000 hectares of crops were affected by the floods, with more than 460,000 houses and infrastructures damaged or destroyed. The death toll of 455 made it Earth's 3rd deadliest weather-related disaster of 2012.


Figure 9. A driver makes his way on a street flooded from heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

10) African Floods (July - October)
Heavy rains in Nigeria killed at least 431, making it Earth's 4th deadliest weather disaster of 2012. Over 3 million people were affected by flooding across 15 countries in Africa, most notably Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The floods destroyed farmlands, homes, and schools, and caused outbreaks of cholera and other diseases.

Other Top Ten Weather Lists of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 374 - 324

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
227. Patrap 8:03 PM CST on January 11, 2013




National Climate Assessment Details Stronger Evidence Of Global Warming And Its Impacts

Posted: 01/11/2013 4:43 pm EST | Updated: 01/11/2013 6:24 pm EST



A federal committee has published a draft of the nation's third climate assessment report, a comprehensive analysis of the latest and best peer-reviewed science on the extent and impacts of global warming on the United States.

None of the body's findings are entirely new, but the report suggests that evidence is now stronger and clearer than ever that the climate is rapidly changing -- primarily as a result of human activities, including the copious burning of fossil fuels. Observed weather extremes are on the rise, and the possible connection between at least some of these events and human-induced climate change is also more strongly supported by the science.

The nation can expect increased impacts on everything from crops to fresh water supplies, and better and broader national plans for adaptation are needed, the assessment noted.

The draft report, which was prepared by the so-called National Climate Assessment Development Advisory Committee and written and amassed by a group of 240 scientists, will be subject to a three-month period of review and public comment.

"Climate change presents a major challenge for society," the committee's leadership said in a letter addressed to the American people. "This report and the sustained assessment process that is being developed represent steps forward in advancing our understanding of that challenge and its far-reaching implications for our nation and the world."

In an emailed statement, Gene Karpinski, the president of the League of Conservation Voters, said the report confirms what many Americans already know. "Hurricane Sandy and the historic droughts, floods and heat waves happening across the country aren't a fluke, but the result of a climate warming much faster than previously thought," he said. "If we put off action on climate change, the costs of addressing its impacts will only rise and this extreme weather will be just the beginning. This report should serve as a wake-up call that it's time to act."

The committee's letter continues:

Summers are longer and hotter, and periods of extreme heat last longer than any living American has ever experienced. Winters are generally shorter and warmer. Rain comes in heavier downpours, though in many regions there are longer dry spells in between.
Other changes are even more dramatic. Residents of some coastal cities see their streets flood more regularly during storms and high tides. Inland cities near large rivers also experience more flooding, especially in the Midwest and Northeast. Hotter and drier weather and earlier snow melt mean that wildfires in the West start earlier in the year, last later into the fall, threaten more homes, cause more evacuations, and burn more acreage. In Alaska, the summer sea ice that once protected the coasts has receded, and fall storms now cause more erosion and damage that is severe enough that some communities are already facing relocation. ...


These and other observed climatic changes are having wide-ranging impacts in every region of our country and most sectors of our economy. Some of these changes can be beneficial, such as longer growing seasons in many regions and a longer shipping season on the Great Lakes. But many more have already proven to be detrimental, largely because society and its infrastructure were designed for the climate of the past, not for the rapidly changing climate of the present or the future.

The report's roots can be traced to the The Global Change Research Act of 1990, which required that a national climate assessment be conducted every four years, with a report issued to the president and Congress. The legislation led to the formation of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, an inter-governmental body involving 13 federal agencies and departments, including the Departments of Commerce, Defense and Energy, as well as the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Science Foundation, among others.

The first such assessment was not published until 2000, however, and it was subsequently attacked by conservative groups who claimed that it exaggerated the climate threat. One group, the free-market Competitive Enterprise Institute, filed multiple lawsuits arguing that the findings were not subjected to federal guidelines for scientific research.

CEI settled its legal challenges with the Bush administration, which subsequently suppressed use of the report by other branches of the federal government in their implementation of policies.

The next full climate assessment was not published until 2009, after President Barack Obama took office.

"This draft report sends a warning to all of us," said Sen. Barbara Boxer, the California Democrat and chairwoman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, in an emailed statement. "We must act in a comprehensive fashion to reduce carbon pollution or expose our people and communities to continuing devastation from extreme weather events and their aftermath."


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128741
Goodnight all. I'll leave you with this,



California hit by big freeze with temperatures as low as 12 degrees

Californians are bundling up with sweaters and gloves and stocking up on firewood as they brace for several nights of freezing temperatures. The National Weather Service is forecasting morning frost on San Diego beaches. Big Sur, on the central coast, prepared for daytime highs almost 20 degrees below Boston's. Even the snowbird haven of Palm Springs faced the possibility of freezing temperatures at night.
In addition, San Diego zookeepers turned up the heat for chimpanzees and some farmers broke out wind machines and took other steps to protect crops from freezing.
Freeze warnings were in effect in San Diego County valleys and deserts Saturday morning with lows in the 20s and 30s, the weather service said.
In Sonoma County, homeless shelters started handing out extra warm clothes on Friday to protect people from freezing overnight temperatures.
Morning temps fell into the 20s and 30s in many areas, and much lower in the mountains. A low of 12 degrees was recorded in the Big Bear mountain resort east of Los Angeles.
'Crazy busy' at firewood store
Some customers drove more than an hour to buy firewood.
"It's crazy busy here," said Renea Teasdale, office manager at The Woodshed in Orange, south of Los Angeles.
Still, it was business as usual as much of the state contended with temperatures in the high 40s and low 50s.
"It's still sunny Southern California, and I'm going to work on my legs all year long," said Linda Zweig, a spokeswoman for the Del Mar Fairgrounds, which is hosting a 5-kilometer (about 3-mile) run north of San Diego on Sunday. The lifelong San Diego-area resident is prone to wearing two sweatshirts when the temperature drops but refuses to give up on shorts.
In the San Joaquin Valley, the heart of California's citrus production, growers prepared for another round of freezing temperatures late Friday after seeing little crop damage Thursday night.
They run wind machines and water to protect their fruit, which can raise the temperature in a grove by up to 4 degrees, said Paul Story, director of grower service at California Citrus Mutual. Existing moisture, sporadic rain and cloud cover can also help keep in heat.
Snow shut a 40-mile stretch of a major highway north of Los Angeles on Thursday afternoon, forcing hundreds of truckers to spend the cold night in their rigs and severing a key link between the Central Valley and Los Angeles.
The California Highway Patrol reopened the Grapevine segment of Interstate 5 some 17 hours later.

2013 The Associated Press.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hopefully not a repost:

The Washington Post:

Effects of climate change will be felt more deeply in decades ahead, draft report says

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Heatwave exacerbated by climate change: Climate Commission

A new report from the Federal Government's Climate Commission says the heatwave and bushfires that have affected Australia this week have been exacerbated by global warming.

The report - - warns of more extreme bushfires and hotter, longer, bigger and more frequent heatwaves, due to climate change.

It says the number of record heat days across Australia has doubled since 1960 and more temperature records are likely to be broken as hot conditions continue this summer.

When Prime Minister Julia Gillard linked the heatwave with climate change this week, the acting Opposition Leader Warren Truss said that was utterly simplistic.

But climate change experts have no doubt that climate change is a factor in the current conditions.

The scientific advisor to the Climate Commission, Professor David Karoly, has written the report for the Climate Commission to answer questions about the link between heatwaves and climate change.



"What we have been able to see is clear evidence of an increasing trend in hot extremes, reductions in cold extremes and with the increases in hot extremes more frequent extreme fire danger day," he said.

"What it means for the Australian summer is an increased frequency of hot extremes, more hot days, more heatwaves and more extreme bushfire days and that's exactly what we've been seeing typically over the last decade and we will see even more frequently in the future."

'Increases in extremes'

Professor Karoly says climate change has worsened this heatwave by extending it and increasing its intensity.

"What climate change is doing is worsening the conditions associated with heat waves so it makes them longer, it makes the intensity of the heat wave worse and together they lead to more frequent extreme fire danger days," he said.



Australia's average temperature has increased by 0.9 of a degree since 1910, and the report says small changes in average temperature can have a significant impact on the frequency and nature of extreme weather events.

Professor Karoly says, based on current projections of greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, the long-term outlook is even more dire.

"We are expecting in the next 50 years for two to three degrees more warming," he said.

"In other words two or three times the warming we've seen already leading to much greater increases in heatwaves and extreme fire danger days.

"So we're expecting future climate change to lead to much greater increases in extremes in the next 30 to 50 years."


© ABC 2013
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Check out where the Polar Vortex finds itself at that time.



Yup, over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This looks like it may be something very significant to watch down the road. In fact, it may morph into a McFarland Event since that is a pretty good looking pre-McFarland signature.



00Z December 21, 1989. A displaced Polar Vortex finds itself in nearly the same place depicted by today's run of the 00Z GFS.



12Z December 22, 1989. As the Polar Vortex lifts northeastwards, a trough at the tail end of the vortex develops and digs south, unleashing the cold air of the vortex upon the lower 48 (and even into Mexico a little later). A very intense surface high drops down along the spine of the rockies due to the upper-air convergence found directly behind the trough, acting to concentrate the cold air. This was the last McFarland Event that I am aware of.

Someone needs to write a decent Wikipedia article on McFarland events. Google is not cooperating much either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
366. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BISING
11:00 PM PhST January 12 2013
==============================

Tropical Depression "Bising" has maintained its strength as it moves northeastward

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Bising (1004 hPa) located at 15.6N 126.8E or 450 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon due to Tropical Depression "Bising" and the Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the local disaster risk reduction and management councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

-40C = -40F.

Yes, it is 850 millibars, but that's still bitter cold. The GFS 2m temperatures show lows under 10F by the 24th for Atlanta, GA.


That would be pretty awful. Highs in this part of the world are going to hit 70 for the next couple of days - the birds are chirping, plants are starting to leaf out, some of the spring flowers are budding - a severe cold snap like that could be pretty destructive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
364. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 06-20122013
16:00 PM RET January 12 2013
========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1001 hPa) located at 11.8S 80.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving north at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.6S 79.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.8S 79.3E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.9S 78.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 13.6S 78.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
As the easterly vertical wind shear decreased aloft, system has organized during last night. Convection has consolidated over the center since the end of the night. Low level circulation has improved according to the last TRMM at 2316z, last ASCAT data shows a more symetrical structure of the winds.

The slight easterly persistent constraint is expected to weaken clearly on Sunday, then upper level environment become more favorable to intensification, mainly on monday with the building of a second outflow channel, but the slow speed of displacement should limited the intensification potential.

The system is forecast to tracker under the effect of combined and antagonist steering flows, first westwards on the northern edge of the low level subtropical ridge, but combined with the steering influence of the equatorial ridge.Then towards southwest on Monday under the steering influence of a mid-level low in the south and a building mid-level ridge in the east. On Wednesday, the system tracks westwards as the ridge is located south, but always with slow speed due to the persistent equatorial mid-level ridge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
363. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
0:00 AM FST January 13 2013
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1001 hPa) located at 15.0S 179.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization and convection has slightly increased in the past 24 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on 0.2 wrap giving DT=1.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak number based on DT

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/d0.5/24 hrs.

Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Global models agree on a southeast movement with further development.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.2S 179.0W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 17.4S 178.4W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 19.3S 176.5W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Spaceweather.com:

"Big sunspot AR1654 is growing more active. It is now crackling with M-class solar flares, such as this one recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory this morning at 09:11 UT:"

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
be a winter harvest nothing left after its gone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
So if that were to come true what would the highs be here in D.C?.Thankfully for me when the cold outbreak of 1989 happened I was some where warm when I was in college.I know my mother said the pipes had froze over and their was no plumming for several days...



Low 20's would be a good bet ... with wind. If you have outdoor shrubs that are iffy about cold, might want to start thinking about how to protect them now.

These giant arctic air masses have a penchant for tail ending up some nice coastal blizzards in their wake , if memory serves... so you may get your snowstorm yet! :-)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Top 10 Most Polluting Countries (2011)

#1 - China

Estimated 2011 CO2 Emissions in metric tonnes: 8.7 billion.


(Photo PETER PARKS/AFP/Getty Images)

Is that what an economic miracle looks like?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
I remember that event very, very well. Woke up Christmas morning with an eight-week-old baby and no power--no lights, no lighted tree, no jingly music, no heat, no warm coffee, no hot breakfast...

It was delightful. :-\

I lived in Miami at the time, and still have an old VHS tape with the Weather Channel's local forecast calling for a chance of snow with possible accumulation there. The snow never materialized that time, of course, but the tape is interesting regardless...

(On a side note: I'm ignoring trollish and/or belligerent behavior today--especially from those just off a ban--so they'll have to fume in desperate silence sans direct response from me.)


There's a bit of a ding dong going on at the Telegraph site. The usual stuff, usual suspects, usual myths. A few more extreme ones being added, though,like the Vikings sailed through the northwest passage. It's like shooting fish in a barrel.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
357. Skyepony (Mod)
Shout out to our friends in Newfoundland. Widespread power outages. Much of the place is shut down. More here.


I about froze to death in 1989. By freak circumstance I happened to stay that night in a house built in the early 1920s. Was assured the original propane unit in the middle of the house would keep us alright with blankets over the windows & doorways. The propane pipe under the house froze in the night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If the 0Z GFS were to come true, D.C. would have highs in the 20s on the 23rd, around 9F on the 24th, and near 0F on the 25th.
Eek!.I hope my pipes don't freeze over.Lol.But this actually sounds exciting.I know the kids will be happy because that means school will be canceled for them(bad news for me because they'll eat up everything in the house).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17095
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know that last line was probably directed at me.I was just making friendly shout outs/being sarcastic.I know your game very well.Can someone answer my question.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17095
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


sure why not

been awhile since i've seen frost on the windows of the building

at those temps hope the boilers hold they be running at 220 f by then

pat would ya like a pair of skates for ya bday so ya can skate the river


Did see Lake P freeze out for 5-6 ft on the south shore in Dec 89,..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128741
Quoting washingtonian115:
So if that were to come true what would the highs be here in D.C?.Thankfully for me when the cold outbreak of 1989 happened I was some where warm when I was in college.I know my mother said the pipes had froze over and their was no plumming for several days...

If the 0Z GFS were to come true, D.C. would have highs in the 20s on the 23rd, around 9F on the 24th, and near 0F on the 25th.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32285
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wait...the GFS makes it colder in later frames.

Temperatures in the single digits all the way down to central Georgia. O_O



10 below here this morning. At least that arctic thing will head east of us, it looks like.

Withal, snow and cold are a good deal less disagreeable when depicted on Christmas cards. The real thing is a pest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
If the 00Z GFS run came true, then I would get some really cold temperatures, then a snow system followed by more cold. All I can say is bring it on.


sure why not

been awhile since i've seen frost on the windows of the building

at those temps hope the boilers hold they be running at 220 f by then

pat would ya like a pair of skates for ya bday so ya can skate the river
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


What exactly is a McFarland event and is there a page explaining the mesoscale for the 1989 event?

This might be helpful:

Useful Relationships Between 500 mb Features and Major Freeze Events in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas
Marshall J. McFarland
Link

Related reading:

Major Arctic Outbreaks Affecting Louisiana
Edward B. Mortimer & G. Alan Johnson & and Henry W. N. Lau
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
And for the record, HGX has been keeping an eye on this for over a week now. This is from January 8.

WITH REGARD TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE RELATIVELY STRONG MJO
SIGNAL MENTIONED YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED INTO PHASE 5. THIS
SIGNAL...COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
LONGWAVE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW WEEKS FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE ARCTIC. OF
INTEREST ARE THE VERY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES FORECAST ACROSS THE
ARCTIC LATER THIS MONTH (1050-1060 MB) WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR TO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IF THEY WERE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. WHILE ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATTER
PORTION OF JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE OF TEXAS. 38

And they're still watching for it now.

END OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST AS
BOTH 00Z ECMWF/GFS HINT AT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR JAN 22-24.

And just for the record, our forecast right now is not very warm...


from the NWS, Wilmington, NC 1989 snowstorm..not saying its going to snow but showing same set up with the artic blast (maps back then..)

Synoptic Overview –

Significantly below normal temperature anomalies over the Carolinas were observed on the morning of December 22 with morning temperatures in the teens and lower 20s and with the center of a strong Arctic high pressure system over the central Plains (Figure 2), temperatures as low as -36 degrees Fahrenheit was observed over northern Nebraska (Figure 3). This supported snow as the predominant precipitation type as this event unfolded. As a 500 mb trough dug into the Mississippi Valley on the morning of December 23, and started to gradually take on a more neutral tilt (Figure 4), a surface low pressure system developed off the Georgia coast (Figure 5). By the morning of December 24, the 500 mb trough had taken on a negative tilt and started to show signs of closing off over the Eastern Carolinas (Figure 6). As both the surface and 850 mb low pressure (Figure 7) intensified by 12Z on December 24, 1989, easterly winds resulted in moisture advection off the Atlantic Ocean. Low-level convergence and enhancement of low-level frontogenesis, resulted in increased precipitation production and a large area of heavy snow along the North Carolina coast





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15699
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Check out where the Polar Vortex finds itself at that time.



Yup, over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This looks like it may be something very significant to watch down the road. In fact, it may morph into a McFarland Event since that is a pretty good looking pre-McFarland signature.



00Z December 21, 1989. A displaced Polar Vortex finds itself in nearly the same place depicted by today's run of the 00Z GFS.



12Z December 22, 1989. As the Polar Vortex lifts northeastwards, a trough at the tail end of the vortex develops and digs south, unleashing the cold air of the vortex upon the lower 48 (and even into Mexico a little later). A very intense surface high drops down along the spine of the rockies due to the upper-air convergence found directly behind the trough, acting to concentrate the cold air. This was the last McFarland Event that I am aware of.


What exactly is a McFarland event and is there a page explaining the mesoscale for the 1989 event?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1989 New Orleans Snow
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128741
If the 00Z GFS run came true, then I would get some really cold temperatures, then a snow system followed by more cold. All I can say is bring it on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:



NOLA hit a low of 14F back then

I might have to unpack my heavy coat and gloves from back when I lived in Iowa!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
12Z December 22, 1989. As the Polar Vortex lifts northeastwards, a trough at the tail end of the vortex develops and digs south, unleashing the cold air of the vortex upon the lower 48 (and even into Mexico a little later). A very intense surface high drops down along the spine of the rockies due to the upper-air convergence found directly behind the trough, acting to concentrate the cold air. This was the last McFarland Event that I am aware of.
I remember that event very, very well. Woke up Christmas morning with an eight-week-old baby and no power--no lights, no lighted tree, no jingly music, no heat, no warm coffee, no hot breakfast...

It was delightful. :-\

I lived in Miami at the time, and still have an old VHS tape with the Weather Channel's local forecast calling for a chance of snow with possible accumulation there. The snow never materialized that time, of course, but the tape is interesting regardless...

(On a side note: I'm ignoring trollish and/or belligerent behavior today--especially from those just off a ban--so they'll have to fume in desperate silence sans direct response from me.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So if that were to come true what would the highs be here in D.C?.Thankfully for me when the cold outbreak of 1989 happened I was some where warm when I was in college.I know my mother said the pipes had froze over and their was no plumming for several days...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17095
Quoting Patrap:



NOLA hit a low of 14F back then

Some pretty bonkers temperature readings were recorded around here as well. College Station made it all the way down to 2*F. TWO! Even all the way to the coast at Galveston, the temp dropped to 14*F.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
913 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM AL HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...

TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM AFFECTING GREENE...HALE...
MARENGO...PICKENS AND SUMTER COUNTIES.

.HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE UPPER TOMBIGBEE DRAINAGE BASIN... UPSTREAM OF BEVILL
LOCK AND DAM IS CAUSING RISES ALONG THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CREATE FURTHER RISES ALONG THE RIVER
WHICH WILL BE FELT AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND A
FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN AFFECT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128741
There are now 3 days until Patrick's 53rd Birthday.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128741


Rain will again be in the forecast Sunday through Tuesday as a cold front moves into the area and then stalls out over the coastal waters. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be possible during the period. More rain could result in additional flash flood and river flooding issues. Numerous rivers will remain in flood through next week.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128741
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
67 this morning for a low, 60 is our normal high and 40 is the normal low.
Change is coming Bohonk......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS at 48 hours...............
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
PSU's e-wall 06Z MREF run
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128741
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thinking of a florida Vacation? this is the week.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And for the record, HGX has been keeping an eye on this for over a week now. This is from January 8.

WITH REGARD TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE RELATIVELY STRONG MJO
SIGNAL MENTIONED YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED INTO PHASE 5. THIS
SIGNAL...COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
LONGWAVE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW WEEKS FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE ARCTIC. OF
INTEREST ARE THE VERY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES FORECAST ACROSS THE
ARCTIC LATER THIS MONTH (1050-1060 MB) WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR TO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IF THEY WERE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. WHILE ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATTER
PORTION OF JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE OF TEXAS. 38

And they're still watching for it now.

END OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST AS
BOTH 00Z ECMWF/GFS HINT AT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR JAN 22-24.

And just for the record, our forecast right now is not very warm...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xandra:

From The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP):

Over the past 50 years, Alaska has warmed at more than twice the rate of the rest of the United States%u2019 average. Its annual average temperature has increased 3.4F, while winters have warmed even more, by 6.3F.501 As a result, climate change impacts are much more pronounced than in other regions of the United States. The higher temperatures are already contributing to earlier spring snowmelt, reduced sea ice, widespread glacier retreat, and permafrost warming. These observed changes are consistent with climate model projections of greater warming over Alaska, especially in winter, as compared to the rest of the country.

Source


Have to be careful with arguing over individual locations, even to the scale of states or countries. The smaller you get, the higher the amplitude of noise will be compared to any signal. The noise comes from all the weather& short-term-climate oscillations/cycles/etc. Although none of these can create or destroy heat, they are manifestations of how heat moves about the globe, and this heat can accumulate (disperse) in (from) certain areas for several years, suggesting a net stronger (weaker) trend. The PDO is one of these oscillations (even if perhaps poorly named as such) and it has been found to have a stronger effect on Alaska than most other US states. As suggested, the switch from a warm phase to a cooler phase of the PDO likely enhanced the trend.

On the other hand, it is also not necessarily correct to say that the entire trend occurred during a "step." Temperature trends are not a random walk where the total heat content goes up or down and then that is immediately a new equilibrium level. The more correct way to describe Alaska's climate and possible climate changes would be to say that there is strong variability, likely from the PDO, on top of the long-term trend, and the long term trend is more difficult to determine than for the globe due to the higher amplitude of noise.
Statistician Grant Foster has discussed climate "step changes" before; for more reading, see:
Link
Link
Link
More discussion on the fallacy of describing climate changes as "shifts" but on a global scale:
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
67 this morning for a low, 60 is our normal high and 40 is the normal low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Check out where the Polar Vortex finds itself at that time.



Yup, over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This looks like it may be something very significant to watch down the road. In fact, it may morph into a McFarland Event since that is a pretty good looking pre-McFarland signature.



00Z December 21, 1989. A displaced Polar Vortex finds itself in nearly the same place depicted by today's run of the 00Z GFS.



12Z December 22, 1989. As the Polar Vortex lifts northeastwards, a trough at the tail end of the vortex develops and digs south, unleashing the cold air of the vortex upon the lower 48 (and even into Mexico a little later). A very intense surface high drops down along the spine of the rockies due to the upper-air convergence found directly behind the trough, acting to concentrate the cold air. This was the last McFarland Event that I am aware of.



NOLA hit a low of 14F back then
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128741
And just as a follow up to my previous post, this is how far south the cold air penetrated during that event.



00Z December 23, 1989



00Z December 24, 1989
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wait...the GFS makes it colder in later frames.

Temperatures in the single digits all the way down to central Georgia. O_O


Check out where the Polar Vortex finds itself at that time.



Yup, over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This looks like it may be something very significant to watch down the road. In fact, it may morph into a McFarland Event since that is a pretty good looking pre-McFarland signature.



00Z December 21, 1989. A displaced Polar Vortex finds itself in nearly the same place depicted by today's run of the 00Z GFS.



12Z December 22, 1989. As the Polar Vortex lifts northeastwards, a trough at the tail end of the vortex develops and digs south, unleashing the cold air of the vortex upon the lower 48 (and even into Mexico a little later). A very intense surface high drops down along the spine of the rockies due to the upper-air convergence found directly behind the trough, acting to concentrate the cold air. This was the last McFarland Event that I am aware of.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Geaux Sneaux ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128741
here is the 700mb layer

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 374 - 324

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.