Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2013

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It was another year of incredible weather extremes globally during 2012. The year featured two of the most expensive weather disasters in world history--Hurricane Sandy and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012, which will both cost more than $50 billion. Thankfully, no disasters had a death toll in excess of 2,000, though the 1,901 people dead or missing due to Super Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines may rank as that nation's 2nd deadliest typhoon ever. Twenty-six weather disasters costing at least $1 billion occurred globally, according to insurance broker AON Benfield. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters in 2011. Nine billion-dollar weather disasters hit China, their highest total in a decade of record-keeping. I present for you, now, the top ten global weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact:



1) New Record Minimum for Arctic Sea Ice (September 16)
Sea ice extent in the Arctic fell to 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that 2012's Arctic weather was much cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during 2012s minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean." Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The fall air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is that is causes increased melting in Greenland, contributing to sea level rise.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day near the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. It won't be many years before Santa's workshop needs pontoons in the summer to stay afloat.

2) Agricultural Drought in the U.S., Europe, and Asia (Summer)
Drought is civilization's great enemy, and the most dangerous threat from global warming. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. In a harbinger of things to come, severe droughts affected important agricultural regions across the globe during summer 2012, including eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. Wheat, corn, and soybean crops were among those heavily impacted; global food prices rose by 10 percent during July. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August, and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is going to be one of the top-five most expensive weather disasters in world history.


Figure 2. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.

3) Superstorm Sandy (October 29)
Hurricane Sandy was the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. Ten hours before landfall, at 9:30 am EDT October 29, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to more than five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the U.S. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall in excess of 12 inches to the mid-Atlantic, and blizzard conditions to the central and southern Appalachians. Sandy's late-season show of unprecedented strength, unusual track, and exceptionally damaging storm surge were made more likely due to climate change, and the storm helped bring more awareness and debate about the threat of climate change to the U.S. than any event since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Figure 3. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

4) Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Glacier Calving (July)
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the Greenland ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. But during four consecutive days July 11 - 14, temperatures rose above freezing at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle. Melting of the ice sheet dramatically accelerated, and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. This was the greatest melt since 1889, according to ice core records. On July 16, an iceberg twice the size of Manhattan calved from the Petermann Glacier in Northeast Greenland. This was the second huge ice island to calve from the glacier since 2010. The glacier's margins have now retreated to the farthest point in the last 150 years. The record melt in Greenland caused the highest loss of ice mass observed in the satellite era, and melting from Greenland is now thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total.


Figure 4. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

5) Super Typhoon Bopha (December 3 - 4)
The deadliest weather disaster of 2012 was Super Typhoon Bopha. Bopha was the strongest typhoon ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead or missing, mostly on the island of Mindanao. If the missing people are presumed dead, this total would make Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.04 billion, Bopha is the most costly typhoon ever to hit the Philippines. The previous record was the $600 million price tag of 2009's Typhoon Parma.


Figure 5. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

6) Northern Hemisphere Warmth (throughout 2012)
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere reached record warm monthly values for four consecutive months (April - July). Much of the unusual warmth occurred in North America; Canada was 3rd warmest on record for the period January- September, and the United States had its warmest year on record. Many European countries and Russia had record to near-record warm summer temperatures in 2012.


Figure 6. This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River on June 28, 2012, as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in Carpentersville, IL imag credit: wunderphotographer pjpix.

7) Eurasian Continent Cold Wave (January 24 - February 17)
Europe's worst cold snap in at least 26 years hit central and eastern Europe hard during a 3-week period in late January and the first half of February. The 824 deaths being blamed on the cold wave made it 2012's second deadliest weather disaster. Parts of the Danube River froze over for the first time in 25 years, and Northeast China through eastern Inner Mongolia recorded extremely cold minimum temperatures ranging between -30°C to -40°C.


Figure 7. Snow falls in Trogir, Croatia on February 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer antoniomise.

8) China Floods (July 21 - 22)
Torrential downpours on July 21 - 22 affected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, with several stations recording their highest daily precipitation on record. Mentougou recorded an impressive 305.2 mm (12 inches) of precipitation in one day. The floods killed 129 people and did $4.8 billion in damage, one of a record nine billion-dollar weather disasters to affect China in 2012.


Figure 8. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says these were the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

9) Pakistan Floods (August 21 - September 30)
Torrential monsoon rains caused deadly floods in Pakistan, with Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces the hardest hit. Over 5 million people and over 400,000 hectares of crops were affected by the floods, with more than 460,000 houses and infrastructures damaged or destroyed. The death toll of 455 made it Earth's 3rd deadliest weather-related disaster of 2012.


Figure 9. A driver makes his way on a street flooded from heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

10) African Floods (July - October)
Heavy rains in Nigeria killed at least 431, making it Earth's 4th deadliest weather disaster of 2012. Over 3 million people were affected by flooding across 15 countries in Africa, most notably Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The floods destroyed farmlands, homes, and schools, and caused outbreaks of cholera and other diseases.

Other Top Ten Weather Lists of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Remember putting a nickel on the stylus rod so it wouldn't skip... If it still skipped use a quarter


Still have all my vinyl and several others peoples collections as well. Yes, I remember that. Still have a turntable, But I don't think it has a stylus in it.

52.2 (12:01)
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Going Home

1966 (vinyl)
Remember putting a nickel on the stylus rod so it wouldn't skip... If it still skipped use a quarter
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Going Home

1966 (vinyl)
Old as me Ped
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Well there's definitely snow around when the GFS brings the polar vortex south. If it happens we'll have to see about lake-effect. I'm pretty sure that can be shut off no matter how cold the air is if the air has no moisture in it and the environmental lapse rate is stable. The snow seen in the image below, except for over Lake Superior, is not lake-effect.

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
AGW.....Don't bother.. The majority is listening to you... Thanks
There was a very, very bad drought in the Plains running to the end of 1865, and in 1866 Tropical Storm Seven hit the East Coast - sounds a lot like Sandy. From Wiki:

The final storm of the season was first observed on October 28 over the Bahamas, and may have been a hybrid or subtropical cyclone. It moved north-northwestward through the island chain, followed by a turn to the north-northeast over the western Atlantic. Several ships encountered the tropical storm, and one lost their supply of molasses.[2] On October 30, the cyclone, at the time transitioning to extratropical, struck on the southern end of Long Beach Island with winds of 70 mph (110 km/h).[8] As it moved through the northeastern United States, the storm dropped heavy rainfall, causing flooding near Jersey City and Hoboken, New Jersey. In Brooklyn, the storm moved the rail cars off their tracks, while in Providence, Rhode Island the winds destroyed three buildings and wrecked the roofs of two others. Further northeast, the storm disrupted shipping and cut telegraph lines, although no fatalities were reported. The post-tropical storm was last observed over Vermont late on October 30.[2]

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468. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #26
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY THREE (05U)
2:51 AM WST January 13 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (949 hPa) located at 20.5S 111.2E or 345 km west northwest of Exmouth and 550 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
160 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to move to the south southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape during Sunday.

If the cyclone moves on a track which brings it closer to the coast then gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour may develop in coastal areas between Onslow and Cape Cuvier during Sunday and may extend south to Carnarvon late Sunday. Gales may extend down to Denham early Monday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast Sunday morning and continue into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Onslow to Carnarvon, including Exmouth and Carnarvon.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Carnarvon to Denham

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.0S 110.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 23.7S 109.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 28.5S 109.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 33.2S 112.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has continued to show a weakening trend during the early hours of Sunday morning with the effects of some easterly shear and restricted outflow on the eastern flank apparent. The extent of cold cloud has dramatically decreased during Saturday evening and the eye pattern is no longer visible. Dvorak DT estimates have fallen to 4.0 with the CI held at 5.0. ADT at 1630 was estimated to be 4.9.

Weakening is likely to continue as the system is affected by moderate easterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures [<26C south of 20.0S] during Sunday. Narelle is likely to remain a cyclone until Tuesday when it should weaken below cyclone strength well off the west coast.

Expected motion is generally to the south southwest on Sunday and Monday. The greatest risk period for gales on the coast is during Sunday in the Exmouth-Ningaloo area. There is still sufficient uncertainty on how far off the coast Narelle will be later on Monday to maintain a precautionary watch for west coastal areas south to Denham.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast on Sunday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast likely to push tides above the highest astronomical tide at least towards Shark Bay.

Although widespread heavy rain is not expected in the west Pilbara, upslide to the southeast of the cyclone may bring some rain to the Gascoyne and southern parts of the state from Sunday to Tuesday.
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Going Home

1966 (vinyl)
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466. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 06-20122013
22:00 PM RET January 12 2013
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 11.5S 80.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 3 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the southern semi circle and locally reaching gale force winds and very rough seas within 20 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.3S 80.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 11.6S 79.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 12.8S 78.6E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.4S 78.3E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
TRMM 0906z swath showed a well curved band pattern in 85ghz microwave imagery but this band appears shorter on SSMIS 1147z and 1427z swaths. In the same time , METEOSAT visible and infrared channels imagery has deteriorated undergoing a probably strengthening east northeasterly vertical wind shear constraint (refer to cirrus arc on water vapor meteosat7 1200z imagery).

Gale force winds likely exists near the center in the southern semi-circle (refer 53006 buoy at 0900z) but it remains probably local. Sea pressure reported by this buoy as the center pass very close seems to be questionable for a so small system.

The easterly ongoing constraint is expected to weaken clearly on Sunday, then upper level environment becomes more favorable for intensification, mainly on Monday as a second outflow channel is expected to build, but the slow motion should limited the potential for intensification.

However intensity forecast is rather tricky in relationship with the small forecast size of the system and with the extent of the influence of the oceanic cooling generated by the system itself as it tracks slowly.

The system is forecast to track under the steering influence of antagonist combined steering flows. It is expected to track westwards at short range undergoing the steering influence of the low level subtropical ridge, but slowed down by the combined steering influence of the equatorial ridge. Then system is expected to track southwestwards on Monday under the steering influence of a mid-level low in the south and a building mid-level ridge in the east. On Wednesday, the system is expected to track westwards as the mid-level subtropical ridge rebuilt in the south, but always with slow motion due to the persistent equatorial mid-level ridge.
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CHICAGO — Contrary to the conventional wisdom of the day, the real danger facing humanity is not global warming, but more likely the coming of a new Ice Age.

What we live in now is known as an interglacial, a relatively brief period between long ice ages. Unfortunately for us, most interglacial periods last only about ten thousand years, and that is how long it has been since the last Ice Age ended.

How much longer do we have before the ice begins to spread across the Earth’s surface? Less than a hundred years or several hundred? We simply don’t know.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Sorry, but I pointed out that 1954 was a severe Plains drought year and also had a very bad East Coast hurricane in mid-October. And that was nearly sixty years ago. If I dug further, I imagine I could find a similar pattern in the late 1800s.

So Sandy and the drought, in conjunction with each other, are not historically unique and are thereby not harbingers of climate change.

AGW..... Never apologize to what you think is correct.... There is no pleasing Nea.Ever... I have tried . He would be on the bottom of my list for a fun date....Sorry Jim.
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I guess, we have no idea..how bad the weather and storms were say in the 15-1600's and before..we are using flawed data because the years we HAVE been recording weather and storms is really a Blink of an eye in earths history..we really have no idea, whats normal and what isnt..to the earth we are just babies trying to understand her..she laughs at us LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Sorry, but I pointed out that 1954 was a severe Plains drought year and also had a very bad East Coast hurricane in mid-October. And that was nearly sixty years ago. If I dug further, I imagine I could find a similar pattern in the late 1800s.

So Sandy and the drought, in conjunction with each other, are not historically unique and are thereby not harbingers of climate change.

AGW.....Don't bother.. The majority is listening to you... Thanks
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ONE FORECAST PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
229 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

DCZ001-VAZ054-122300-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH
229 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

.THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
PATCHY FOG. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
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mild afternoon for the eastern half for sure as the west shivers

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56063
Quoting Neapolitan:
"In and of themselves"? You're mostly correct. But it's illogical to look at each event as a separate, unrelated one-off occurrence; the fact is, by every credible, legitimate, intellectually honest analysis of the current global situation, extreme weather events of all types are happening with demonstrably increasing severity and frequency.

And there's just one scientifically valid reason for that.
Sorry, but I pointed out that 1954 was a severe Plains drought year and also had a very bad East Coast hurricane in mid-October. And that was nearly sixty years ago. If I dug further, I imagine I could find a similar pattern in the late 1800s.

So Sandy and the drought, in conjunction with each other, are not historically unique and are thereby not harbingers of climate change.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF FAR NERN TX / SWRN-CNTRL-NERN AR / MO
BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121925Z - 122200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR TRANSITION TO SURFACE-BASED STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE THIS BECOMES
APPARENT...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW 30
MI E DAL AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED SW TO NE FROM NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX THROUGH W-CNTRL AR AND INTO SERN MO. THE SRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD INTO FAR NERN TX BY EARLY EVENING AS
THE LOW DEVELOPS NEWD...BUT THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER AR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR SLIGHTLY NWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AS SUCH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ LEADING TO A
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NWD INVOF THE
FRONT OVER CNTRL-NERN AR.

DESPITE A THICK MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY RETARDING SURFACE
HEATING...TEMPS ARE GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG
MLCAPE WHEN MODIFYING THE 12Z SHV RAOB --FEATURING A 14-15 G/KG MEAN
MIXING RATIO-- FOR THE 19Z TXK SURFACE OBSERVATION. MOIST LOW
LEVELS COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ TO 55 KTS BY 00Z...WILL
ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS /500 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ AND FACILITATE AT LEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WITH A MESSY
CONVECTIVE MODE FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT.

..SMITH/HART.. 01/12/2013
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here is the official 6-10 day temps..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
Salt of The Earth


51.8 (11:37)
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Let's drink to the hard working people
Let's drink to the lowly of birth
Raise your glass to the good & evil
Let's drink to the salt of the earth
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Quoting PedleyCA:




Mean Temperature 40 F 55 F
Max Temperature 50 F 67 F 89 F (1996)
Min Temperature 32 F 43 F 25 F (1921)

It sure isn't normal for it to be this cold, but it can be. I don't like cold very much. I can visit the cold any time I want. I have an unused set of snow chains and know how to use them. Just don't want to. Bought them when I worked in the Antelope Valley (Lancaster-Palmdale) and sometimes it snows there. Used to live closer to Los Angeles and it snows on either approach to
that area. The Ridge Route (I-5) was closed yesterday so no escape to the North for I think 17 hours. Was closed North at Castaic. Used to live there.
Not by choice.... Brrrr....
..yes i know what you mean,when i got married my dad bought a house up in new hampshire where his folks are from, and we would go up and visit..brrrrr is right in winter..finally i had enough of NY and moved to florida..now its the other way around..9-10 months of 90's lol...a guy just cant win for trying
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
How likely is it that those models verify? The GFS has been showing it on its runs for a good 48 hours now.
we get more confidence as we get closer to event if models still show by thurs fri of next week its pretty well a done deal except for how cold it really gets
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56063
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
How likely is it that those models verify? The GFS has been showing it on its runs for a good 48 hours now.

Well, we've known for weeks now that it was probably going to get quite cold across the East USA by mid- to late January. So, at the very least, the possibility of seeing below average temperatures by then is very high. How cold it gets is still kind of uncertain, though I'd say the models aren't too far off in what they're showing.
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Salty Dog
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It'll be interesting to see how the month of January turns out as a whole. We're starting to see record warmth across the East and this should continue for the next few days. However, that flash freeze by the week of the 20th will do a real number overall, especially if it's as cold as the models predict.
your right..after these warm couple of weeks folks are really going to feel this cold...its not so bad if it stays cold, you sort of get used to it, but this up and down temp makes people sick..and the flu they say this year is a bad one.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
How likely is it that those models verify? The GFS has been showing it on its runs for a good 48 hours now.
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Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS is nasty. 0z GEM was worse. Thor's Hammer visits the Great Lakes:





Should be some whomp-ass lake effect storms coming, in that case. Feet and meters of snow in some areas.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Anyone else care to post their nice temps and rub more salt in the situation here. 48.6 now (10:15PST) :p
Looking for a 60's or 70's song with the word salt Ped.... Check me later
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It'll be interesting to see how the month of January turns out as a whole. We're starting to see record warmth across the East and this should continue for the next few days. However, that flash freeze by the week of the 20th will do a real number overall, especially if it's as cold as the models predict.
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Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS is nasty. 0z GEM was worse. Thor's Hammer visits the Great Lakes:





high impacting events to follow spring severe season may become quite frightening get this cold till mid feb be bad severe show likly
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56063
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Quoting AGWcreationists:
Two points:

1) We have had hurricanes like Sandy, droughts worse then the current one, and other similar extreme weather in the past. Those events in and of themselves are not indicators of a warming climate.
"In and of themselves"? You're mostly correct. But it's illogical to look at each event as a separate, unrelated one-off occurrence; the fact is, by every credible, legitimate, intellectually honest analysis of the current global situation, extreme weather events of all types are happening with demonstrably increasing severity and frequency.

And there's just one scientifically valid reason for that.
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Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS is nasty. 0z GEM was worse. Thor's Hammer visits the Great Lakes:




O_O
Well that would be..."fun".
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Quoting LargoFl:
..IS it unusual for you to be this cold in January?




Mean Temperature 40 °F 55 °F
Max Temperature 50 °F 67 °F 89 °F (1996)
Min Temperature 32 °F 43 °F 25 °F (1921)

It sure isn't normal for it to be this cold, but it can be. I don't like cold very much. I can visit the cold any time I want. I have an unused set of snow chains and know how to use them. Just don't want to. Bought them when I worked in the Antelope Valley (Lancaster-Palmdale) and sometimes it snows there. Used to live closer to Los Angeles and it snows on either approach to
that area. The Ridge Route (I-5) was closed yesterday so no escape to the North for I think 17 hours. Was closed North at Castaic. Used to live there.
Not by choice.... Brrrr....
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we have exceeded our forecast high of 54 today or 12

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 2:00 PM EST Saturday 12 January 2013
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.89 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 57.9°F 14.4°c
Dewpoint: 51.1°F
Humidity: 78 %
Wind: SSW 9 mph
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56063
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
Quoting AGWcreationists:
The Long Island Express happened just after the worst of the Dust Bowl years. Hurricane Hazel hit while there was a severe Plains drought in the 1950s.

Try again.
The Long island Express struck just a week and a half after the "peak" of the season, speeding north-northeastward; and Hurricane Hazel made landfall in North Carolina roughly three weeks after peak. Hurricane Sandy, far larger than either of those storms, made landfall seven weeks after peak, moving toward the northwest.

Try again. ;-)
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1207 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

.COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THAT FRONT WILL PRODUCE A MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE...SLEET...AND SNOW FOR THE
REGION STARTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI..THEN SPREADING WEST TO EAST INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS
THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL...ONE TO TWO INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...WITH MORE
OF A WINTRY MIX OVER THE SPRINGFIELD AND LEBANON AREAS. ONLY VERY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
12z GFS is nasty. 0z GEM was worse. Thor's Hammer visits the Great Lakes:



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winds carrying all that gulf moisture up to the central states.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
Quoting PedleyCA:


I am OK with Truckee being cold. That is somewhat normal at times. Big Bear was 12 yesterday and was +1 this morning. If you up in the mountains we expect it to be cold. We flat-landers don't like cold that we can't choose to drive too. It isn't right to be cold down here, lol.....
..IS it unusual for you to be this cold in January?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
Quoting oldnewmex:
r.e. Pedley, post #408
It has warmed up to a balmy 9 degrees here in Truckee at 10:54 am.


I am OK with Truckee being cold. That is somewhat normal at times. Big Bear was 12 yesterday and was +1 this morning. If you up in the mountains we expect it to be cold. We flat-landers don't like cold that we can't choose to drive too. It isn't right to be cold down here, lol.....
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not for much longer redneck



that HIGH pressure keeps it out of Florida
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
I know Georgia is enjoying this......i
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
Quoting auburn:
75 F here in Bama...can I get a yaaahoo!
not for much longer redneck



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56063
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
hey WPB how you all doing down there?..nice temps huh..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
Quoting PedleyCA:
Anyone else care to post their nice temps and rub more salt in the situation here. 48.6 now (10:15PST) :p
80 here right now with a nice breeze
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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