Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2013

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It was another year of incredible weather extremes globally during 2012. The year featured two of the most expensive weather disasters in world history--Hurricane Sandy and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012, which will both cost more than $50 billion. Thankfully, no disasters had a death toll in excess of 2,000, though the 1,901 people dead or missing due to Super Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines may rank as that nation's 2nd deadliest typhoon ever. Twenty-six weather disasters costing at least $1 billion occurred globally, according to insurance broker AON Benfield. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters in 2011. Nine billion-dollar weather disasters hit China, their highest total in a decade of record-keeping. I present for you, now, the top ten global weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact:



1) New Record Minimum for Arctic Sea Ice (September 16)
Sea ice extent in the Arctic fell to 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that 2012's Arctic weather was much cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during 2012s minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean." Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The fall air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is that is causes increased melting in Greenland, contributing to sea level rise.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day near the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. It won't be many years before Santa's workshop needs pontoons in the summer to stay afloat.

2) Agricultural Drought in the U.S., Europe, and Asia (Summer)
Drought is civilization's great enemy, and the most dangerous threat from global warming. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. In a harbinger of things to come, severe droughts affected important agricultural regions across the globe during summer 2012, including eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. Wheat, corn, and soybean crops were among those heavily impacted; global food prices rose by 10 percent during July. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August, and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is going to be one of the top-five most expensive weather disasters in world history.


Figure 2. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.

3) Superstorm Sandy (October 29)
Hurricane Sandy was the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. Ten hours before landfall, at 9:30 am EDT October 29, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to more than five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the U.S. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall in excess of 12 inches to the mid-Atlantic, and blizzard conditions to the central and southern Appalachians. Sandy's late-season show of unprecedented strength, unusual track, and exceptionally damaging storm surge were made more likely due to climate change, and the storm helped bring more awareness and debate about the threat of climate change to the U.S. than any event since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Figure 3. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

4) Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Glacier Calving (July)
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the Greenland ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. But during four consecutive days July 11 - 14, temperatures rose above freezing at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle. Melting of the ice sheet dramatically accelerated, and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. This was the greatest melt since 1889, according to ice core records. On July 16, an iceberg twice the size of Manhattan calved from the Petermann Glacier in Northeast Greenland. This was the second huge ice island to calve from the glacier since 2010. The glacier's margins have now retreated to the farthest point in the last 150 years. The record melt in Greenland caused the highest loss of ice mass observed in the satellite era, and melting from Greenland is now thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total.


Figure 4. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

5) Super Typhoon Bopha (December 3 - 4)
The deadliest weather disaster of 2012 was Super Typhoon Bopha. Bopha was the strongest typhoon ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead or missing, mostly on the island of Mindanao. If the missing people are presumed dead, this total would make Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.04 billion, Bopha is the most costly typhoon ever to hit the Philippines. The previous record was the $600 million price tag of 2009's Typhoon Parma.


Figure 5. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

6) Northern Hemisphere Warmth (throughout 2012)
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere reached record warm monthly values for four consecutive months (April - July). Much of the unusual warmth occurred in North America; Canada was 3rd warmest on record for the period January- September, and the United States had its warmest year on record. Many European countries and Russia had record to near-record warm summer temperatures in 2012.


Figure 6. This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River on June 28, 2012, as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in Carpentersville, IL imag credit: wunderphotographer pjpix.

7) Eurasian Continent Cold Wave (January 24 - February 17)
Europe's worst cold snap in at least 26 years hit central and eastern Europe hard during a 3-week period in late January and the first half of February. The 824 deaths being blamed on the cold wave made it 2012's second deadliest weather disaster. Parts of the Danube River froze over for the first time in 25 years, and Northeast China through eastern Inner Mongolia recorded extremely cold minimum temperatures ranging between -30°C to -40°C.


Figure 7. Snow falls in Trogir, Croatia on February 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer antoniomise.

8) China Floods (July 21 - 22)
Torrential downpours on July 21 - 22 affected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, with several stations recording their highest daily precipitation on record. Mentougou recorded an impressive 305.2 mm (12 inches) of precipitation in one day. The floods killed 129 people and did $4.8 billion in damage, one of a record nine billion-dollar weather disasters to affect China in 2012.


Figure 8. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says these were the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

9) Pakistan Floods (August 21 - September 30)
Torrential monsoon rains caused deadly floods in Pakistan, with Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces the hardest hit. Over 5 million people and over 400,000 hectares of crops were affected by the floods, with more than 460,000 houses and infrastructures damaged or destroyed. The death toll of 455 made it Earth's 3rd deadliest weather-related disaster of 2012.


Figure 9. A driver makes his way on a street flooded from heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

10) African Floods (July - October)
Heavy rains in Nigeria killed at least 431, making it Earth's 4th deadliest weather disaster of 2012. Over 3 million people were affected by flooding across 15 countries in Africa, most notably Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The floods destroyed farmlands, homes, and schools, and caused outbreaks of cholera and other diseases.

Other Top Ten Weather Lists of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Just watched a totally hokey movie with Charles Bronson... "The White Buffalo" One of the worst ever...........I Loved it..
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
Quoting wxchaser97:

Actually, it isn't just you. My warning server is acting up too so I am looking for another one. Under the products tab I have the warning thing checked off, do you?


Actually, when I clicked on "Warnings", the warnings came up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Had to download the base program to see since I was using GR2Analyst to try to figure it out.

Go to Products and click Warnings near the bottom.
That actually solved the problem. Thank you :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Nothing is silly trying to fix the problem :) And I don't see any "Load Warnings" under Windows tab.

Had to download the base program to see since I was using GR2Analyst to try to figure it out.

Go to Products and click Warnings near the bottom.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:


Yea been watching you exchange tweets with ryan good luck bro those model pages take alot of dedication and updating. Already saved to my favs on labtop. @Adriansweather if ur interested in following me.


Just did :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27119
Oh boy...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST.

* AT 243 PM CST...RADAR STILLA INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6
MILES EAST OF BROOKPORT...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF PADUCAH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG ROTATION
NEAR THE SURFACE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
BURNA...SALEM...JOY...ROSICLARE...CARRSVILLE...ELI ZABETHTOWN...
GROSS AND CAVE-IN-ROCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 8849 3716 8849 3724 8858 3760 8828
3759 8817 3757 8815 3757 8813 3751 8806
3755 8800 3751 8800 3750 8797 3747 8798
3706 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 216DEG 36KT 3720 8847

$$

SMITH
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
FL!!!:)


Finally! I love heat, don't get me wrong, but I like seasonal heat. It just feels weird for it to be 85 degrees in the middle of January, might be able to wear a long sleeve shirt for once.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Nothing is silly trying to fix the problem :) And I don't see any "Load Warnings" under Windows tab.

Actually, it isn't just you. My warning server is acting up too so I am looking for another one. Under the products tab I have the warning thing checked off, do you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Thanks Adrian.

I will be bringing some NOGAPS products online likely later today (big deal, right? lol). The NAM may show its face later as well. I wish I could afford ECMWF data, but, well, I can't lol.

I hope to add many more tropics-related products as time goes on, at least for the Atlantic, if I can't afford to do it for other regions. Right now I'm just putting this current product set up for server stress testing and bug fixing. Once I'm confident I can add more, I will.


Yea been watching you exchange tweets with ryan good luck bro those model pages take alot of dedication and updating. Already saved to my favs on labtop. @Adriansweather if ur interested in following me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Even for those populations of plants or animals living in a habitable area – or refugium – in the south, survival right through a glaciation is far from guaranteed. The refugium may just be too small to support a viable population, especially for large-bodied animals or carnivores. Often the last glimpse of extinct ice-age species in the fossil record comes from relict populations clinging on in southern refugia, just before their species light is extinguished. Neanderthals are often thought of as being "cold-adapted". They might have been a bit stockier than us, but they're not by any means an Arctic species. They existed in Europe for some 200,000 years, but like all the other temperate-adapted animals, they cleared out of northern Europe during glaciations and hunkered down in southern refugia. We see them for the last time in the southernmost tip of the Iberian peninsula, living in caves on the Rock of Gibraltar, around 28,000 years ago. And then they're gone.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
Quoting Astrometeor:
I was actually wondering how much rain Paducah has measured, they have had some consistent training for an hour or so.

A trained storm spotter reported flash flooding with water covering roadways but I don't see an actual measurement of rainfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This may sound a bit silly, but do you have "Load Warnings" enabled under the Windows tab?


Nothing is silly trying to fix the problem :) And I don't see any "Load Warnings" under Windows tab.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Freezing weather?

It's welcome here!
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Quoting Astrometeor:


So far, solar scientists do not know whether or not the sun can affect Earth's climate. There is a good chance it can, the solar cycle and the sun in general is strong not weak as you observed. Also, we do not have the capability yet to measure the sun's impact on Earth, that is one reason why the debate has continued.


Physicists believe they can measure the effect of varying sloar irradiance on the Earth's temperature quite well. That doesn't mean they haven't missed something, although I doubt that.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2994
I was actually wondering how much rain Paducah has measured, they have had some consistent training for an hour or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh great, a flood watch has been issued for my area. Because with all this snow melt I really need over an inch of rain.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHWEST OHIO AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THIS COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND
SNOW MELT MAY CREATE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS
URBAN AREAS. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-130445-
/O.NEW.KDTX.FA.A.0001.130113T0300Z-130113T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LE NAWEE-
MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...
WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
337 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...LENAWEE...LIVINGSTON...MACOMB...MONROE...
OAKLAND...ST. CLAIR...WASHTENAW AND WAYNE.

* FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL COMBINE WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT TO INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR.

* FLOODING OF LOWLAND...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...URBAN AREAS...CREEKS AND
STREAMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.


* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

KURIMSKI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I did that and reset the program. Still isn't working. Maybe it might be helpful if I show you that the opinions in orange box of this screenshot is locked.



Btw, a nice hook on that storm at KY/IL border

This may sound a bit silly, but do you have "Load Warnings" enabled under the Windows tab?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


What, this one didn't count?



Yep, I forgot that one.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
Quoting yonzabam:


And which cycle would that be? The only solar cycle I'm aware of is the 11 year cycle, which isn't nearly strong enough.

Solar irradiance is measurable. There may be cycles we don't know about on longer tmescales than 11 years which can affect climate, but that's pure speculation.

If such a cycle were currently affecting climate, scientists would have been able to measure it. But, they haven't.


So far, solar scientists do not know whether or not the sun can affect Earth's climate. There is a good chance it can, the solar cycle and the sun in general is strong not weak as you observed. Also, we do not have the capability yet to measure the sun's impact on Earth, that is one reason why the debate has continued.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Enter a warning server. Go to view and warning settings.

http://warnings.weatherdata.info/

Enter that in the box ^
I did that and reset the program. Still isn't working. Maybe it might be helpful if I show you that the opinions in orange box of this screenshot is locked.



Btw, a nice hook on that storm at KY/IL border
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:


Model page looks great!

Any other models you are adding?


Thanks Adrian.

I will be bringing some NOGAPS products online likely later today (big deal, right? lol). The NAM may show its face later as well. I wish I could afford ECMWF data, but, well, I can't lol.

I hope to add many more tropics-related products as time goes on, at least for the Atlantic, if I can't afford to do it for other regions. Right now I'm just putting this current product set up for server stress testing and bug fixing. Once I'm confident I can add more, I will.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
IF..an ice age comes,it wont be a fast change right?..slowly getting colder year after year, winter storms getting more severe and snowfall moving further and further southward..Glaciers slowing building, slowly moving southward away from the pole..crushing slowly..everything in its path?..2 miles thick ice?.....glad i wont be here.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
From the Guardian:

Heatwave: Australia's new weather demands a new politics

Climate change clashes with the myth of a land where progress is limited only by the rate at which resources can be extracted

by George Monbiot


Five of Australia's six states are still suffering fires after the counrty's fiercest
heatwave in more than 80 years. Photograph: Kim Foale/EPA


I wonder what Tony Abbott will say about the record heatwave now ravaging his country. The Australian opposition leader has repeatedly questioned the science and impacts of climate change. He has insisted that "the science is highly contentious, to say the least" and asked – demonstrating what looks like a wilful ignorance – "If man-made CO2 was quite the villain that many of these people say it is, why hasn't there just been a steady increase starting in 1750, and moving in a linear way up the graph?" He has argued against Australian participation in serious attempts to cut emissions.

Climate change denial is almost a national pastime in Australia. People such as Andrew Bolt and Ian Plimer have made a career out of it. The Australian – owned by Rupert Murdoch – takes such extreme anti-science positions that it sometimes makes the Sunday Telegraph look like the voice of reason.

Perhaps this is unsurprising. Australia is the world's largest exporter of coal – the most carbon intensive fossil fuel. It's also a profligate consumer. Australians now burn, on average, slightly more carbon per capita than the citizens of the United States, and more than twice as much as the people of the United Kingdom. Taking meaningful action on climate change would require a serious reassessment of the way life is lived there.

Events have not been kind to the likes of Abbott, Bolt and Plimer. The current heatwave – so severe that the Bureau of Meteorology has been forced to add a new colour to its temperature maps – is just the latest event in a decade of extraordinary weather: weather of the kind that scientists have long warned is a likely consequence of man-made global warming.

Continue Reading >>
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Levi. That will be the first big nor'easter for the New England states this winter?


What, this one didn't count?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WECT News
Wow, 78 so far in Wilmington!!! This breaks a 123 year old record.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Tornado Warning for Paducah, KY



Btw, anyone on here familiar with GRLevel3 v2? I can't get the warnings to work today.

Enter a warning server. Go to view and warning settings.

http://warnings.weatherdata.info/

Enter that in the box ^
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ARC023-063-137-145-122115-
/O.NEW.KLZK.SV.W.0002.130112T2030Z-130112T2115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
WESTERN INDEPENDENCE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 225 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF HEBER SPRINGS TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROSE
BUD TO 3 MILES WEST OF GRAVEL HILL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MELROSE... HEBER SPRINGS... STEPROCK...
PLEASANT PLAINS... PANGBURN... GREERS FERRY DAM...
GRAVEL HILL... CONCORD... WILBURN...
VELVET RIDGE... SUNNYDALE... SIDON...
ROOSEVELT... ROMANCE... LOCUST GROVE...
LETONA... JOY... IDA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 9208 3537 9207 3559 9213 3585 9168
3552 9158 3545 9158 3544 9155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 236DEG 33KT 3556 9200 3542 9196
3527 9199

$$

225
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
Quoting Levi32:
Well there's definitely snow around when the GFS brings the polar vortex south. If it happens we'll have to see about lake-effect. I'm pretty sure that can be shut off no matter how cold the air is if the air has no moisture in it and the environmental lapse rate is stable. The snow seen in the image below, except for over Lake Superior, is not lake-effect.



Model page looks great!

Any other models you are adding?
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Quoting yonzabam:


I read somewhere that the present cycle is predicted to be a particularly long one.
yonz for my grand childrens sake i hope what you read is right
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
491. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
6:00 AM FST January 13 2013
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1000 hPa) located at 14.8S 179.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving slowly. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has improved slightly past 24 hours. Convection has increased in the past 12 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis, cloud pattern not clear so DT not obtained. MET=2.0, PT=2.0. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models agree on a southeast movement with further development.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.0S 178.5W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 16.9S 177.8W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 18.9S 175.7W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46579
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Very strong rotation northwest of Cadiz, Kentucky.



Tornado Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
228 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

ILC127-151-KYC139-145-122100-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130112T2100Z/
MASSAC IL-POPE IL-LIVINGSTON KY-MCCRACKEN KY-
228 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POPE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSAC COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MCCRACKEN AND SOUTHWESTERN
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 300 PM CST...

AT 226 PM CST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONE
OAK...MOVING NORTHEAST BETWEEM 30 AND 40 MPH. THE STORM IS
ACCELERATING IN FORWARD SPEED.

THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF...SHORT LIVED
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SHELTER SHOULD A TORNADO BE OBSERVED...OR IF THERE IS AN UPGRADE TO A
TORNADO WARNING FOR YOUR AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT... EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PADUCAH.

&&

LAT...LON 3698 8883 3724 8859 3734 8871 3760 8871
3760 8842 3742 8841 3740 8847 3728 8852
3719 8844 3720 8843 3711 8844 3707 8838
3705 8844 3694 8858 3694 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 226DEG 34KT 3699 8865

$$

SMITH
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
Very strong rotation northwest of Cadiz, Kentucky.

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Quoting CaribBoy:


Will we - in the N Leewards - get rain from the frontal band just N of us?


Some but not a whole lot.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT NOT MOVE VERY
MUCH. SAME APPLIES TO THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND IN TANDEM THEY WILL CAUSE A LONG TRAJECTORY OF AIR FLOWING HERE
FROM THE NORTHEAST...GENERALLY DRY AND COOL.

BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS BETWEEN PR/USVI AND 20N MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL PASS OVER THESE ISLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BAND
WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS TO BARE MINIMUM SUN/MON. NAM/GFS EVEN
DRY OUT THE 1000-850 MB LAYER MORE THAN USUAL.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK CLOSER TO EASTERLY BY
WED/THU WHICH WILL BRING TRADE WIND SHOWERS BACK MORE TO NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

HEAVY SURF EXPECTED TONIGHT/SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION
TO BUOYS WELL NORTH OF AREA. EARLY INDICATIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO
QUITE AS SERIOUS AS MODELS SUGGESTED.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS.

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ON COASTAL WATERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS TO BUILD TONIGHT...
MAINLY ON ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

LARGE SWELL EVENT IS SLOW TO BEGIN. GRAPHICAL GWW MODEL INDICATES
BUOY 41049 SHOULD BE ALMOST 13 FT BY 18Z THOUGH SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD SWELLS ARE PROBABLY JUST NOW ARRIVING THERE. BUT 18Z
OBSERVATION IS STILL ABOUT 9 FT. PR/USVI COASTAL WATERS SHOWING
7-8 FT SEAS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ON ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 80 77 81 / 60 10 10 20
STT 76 82 76 83 / 40 10 10 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
Tornado Warning for Paducah, KY



Btw, anyone on here familiar with GRLevel3 v2? I can't get the warnings to work today.
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Quoting LargoFl:



CHICAGO — Contrary to the conventional wisdom of the day, the real danger facing humanity is not global warming, but more likely the coming of a new Ice Age.

What we live in now is known as an interglacial, a relatively brief period between long ice ages. Unfortunately for us, most interglacial periods last only about ten thousand years, and that is how long it has been since the last Ice Age ended.

How much longer do we have before the ice begins to spread across the Earth’s surface? Less than a hundred years or several hundred? We simply don’t know.


I read somewhere that the present cycle is predicted to be a particularly long one.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2994
Quoting TomballTXPride:


No, they're not. That's what I keep telling Folks amidst their attempt to link these two events to Man-Made climate change.

The thing is, we just don't know yet. But some want to jump the gun. And the ones jumping the guns are the ones not allowing for other variances to play into the equation, like cycles of the sun.


And which cycle would that be? The only solar cycle I'm aware of is the 11 year cycle, which isn't nearly strong enough.

Solar irradiance is measurable. There may be cycles we don't know about on longer tmescales than 11 years which can affect climate, but that's pure speculation.

If such a cycle were currently affecting climate, scientists would have been able to measure it. But, they haven't.

Your best shot at an alternative explanation for climate change is variations in the oceanic gyre. The ocean is a potentially gigantic heat sink. If it speeds up, it would transport surface heat to the depths. If it slows down, the opposite effect.

The world warms during El Ninos, when there is less upwelling of cold, deep water off Peru. It cools during La Ninas, when upwelling increases, and these temperature changes aren't confined to the Pacific. It's almost as if the global gyre has slowed down, but is most noticeable in the Pacific.

But, it's not something scientists have a good handle on, and until they have, greenhouse gases are the preferred explanation.

One caveat about the solar irradiance question. I have no idea how clued up physicists who study this are about the importance of positive feedback effects. They are much more important than the initial forcing factor, whether it be greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, or changes to the oceanic gyre.

If they don't include positive feedback effects, such as reduced albedo, then their calculations for the effects of increased or decreased solar irradiance will be major underestimates.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2994
Quoting LargoFl:


Will we - in the N Leewards - get rain from the frontal band just N of us?
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The thing about Southern Calif. is you can Surf, Ski, play in the Desert and then go where the temps are nice. Beach is too cool, Desert is too hot (day) and too cold at night. Mountains can be warm during the day and freezing at night. I like the lower elevations with enough protection. (here 800ft )

PBW- Marantz 2270 w/JBL J-100's Still have it...old school
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481. VR46L
Quoting Neapolitan:
"In and of themselves"? You're mostly correct. But it's illogical to look at each event as a separate, unrelated one-off occurrence; the fact is, by every credible, legitimate, intellectually honest analysis of the current global situation, extreme weather events of all types are happening with demonstrably increasing severity and frequency.

And there's just one scientifically valid reason for that.


Neapolitan I appreciate you are a man of science , but I was wondering what is your answer to these facts about Sandy

Where did Sandy lose her cold cloud tops ?

Where did her wind field expand ?

Where did she take on a warm front ?

Where did she really start to drop pressure ?

Around 30N

Extratropical cyclone

What was attracting her inshore instead of going out to sea .. a regular October front

Not exactly a Case for AGW .

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Quoting Levi32:
Well there's definitely snow around when the GFS brings the polar vortex south. If it happens we'll have to see about lake-effect. I'm pretty sure that can be shut off no matter how cold the air is if the air has no moisture in it and the environmental lapse rate is stable. The snow seen in the image below, except for over Lake Superior, is not lake-effect.



Hi Levi. That will be the first big nor'easter for the New England states this winter?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
Never liked the freezing temps.... And after I spent 2 years at Eielson AFB..........Geeez, No way. Always bundled up when I went into Fairbanks... The freezing cold played havok with my...with me....well, nevermind
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
FL!!!:)
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My sister who is attending graduate school at ASU won't know what to with freezing temperatures. She loved Pasadena for being a nice stable 65 when she was there.

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Quoting PedleyCA:


Still have all my vinyl and several others peoples collections as well. Yes, I remember that. Still have a turntable, But I don't think it has a stylus in it.

52.2 (12:01)
I have 4 boxes full of LP's....cant lift it... Marantz??? Is that correct... then reel to reel was the hot thing..
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
So I looked through my state's (Tennessee) historical climate records, graphed the data, and found a very interesting line.

The average temperature graphed per month and per year was flat, completely, through 140 years of observation.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Remember putting a nickel on the stylus rod so it wouldn't skip... If it still skipped use a quarter


Still have all my vinyl and several others peoples collections as well. Yes, I remember that. Still have a turntable, But I don't think it has a stylus in it.

52.2 (12:01)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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