Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2013

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It was another year of incredible weather extremes globally during 2012. The year featured two of the most expensive weather disasters in world history--Hurricane Sandy and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012, which will both cost more than $50 billion. Thankfully, no disasters had a death toll in excess of 2,000, though the 1,901 people dead or missing due to Super Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines may rank as that nation's 2nd deadliest typhoon ever. Twenty-six weather disasters costing at least $1 billion occurred globally, according to insurance broker AON Benfield. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters in 2011. Nine billion-dollar weather disasters hit China, their highest total in a decade of record-keeping. I present for you, now, the top ten global weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact:



1) New Record Minimum for Arctic Sea Ice (September 16)
Sea ice extent in the Arctic fell to 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that 2012's Arctic weather was much cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during 2012s minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean." Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The fall air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is that is causes increased melting in Greenland, contributing to sea level rise.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day near the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. It won't be many years before Santa's workshop needs pontoons in the summer to stay afloat.

2) Agricultural Drought in the U.S., Europe, and Asia (Summer)
Drought is civilization's great enemy, and the most dangerous threat from global warming. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. In a harbinger of things to come, severe droughts affected important agricultural regions across the globe during summer 2012, including eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. Wheat, corn, and soybean crops were among those heavily impacted; global food prices rose by 10 percent during July. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August, and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is going to be one of the top-five most expensive weather disasters in world history.


Figure 2. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.

3) Superstorm Sandy (October 29)
Hurricane Sandy was the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. Ten hours before landfall, at 9:30 am EDT October 29, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to more than five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the U.S. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall in excess of 12 inches to the mid-Atlantic, and blizzard conditions to the central and southern Appalachians. Sandy's late-season show of unprecedented strength, unusual track, and exceptionally damaging storm surge were made more likely due to climate change, and the storm helped bring more awareness and debate about the threat of climate change to the U.S. than any event since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Figure 3. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

4) Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Glacier Calving (July)
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the Greenland ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. But during four consecutive days July 11 - 14, temperatures rose above freezing at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle. Melting of the ice sheet dramatically accelerated, and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. This was the greatest melt since 1889, according to ice core records. On July 16, an iceberg twice the size of Manhattan calved from the Petermann Glacier in Northeast Greenland. This was the second huge ice island to calve from the glacier since 2010. The glacier's margins have now retreated to the farthest point in the last 150 years. The record melt in Greenland caused the highest loss of ice mass observed in the satellite era, and melting from Greenland is now thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total.


Figure 4. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

5) Super Typhoon Bopha (December 3 - 4)
The deadliest weather disaster of 2012 was Super Typhoon Bopha. Bopha was the strongest typhoon ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead or missing, mostly on the island of Mindanao. If the missing people are presumed dead, this total would make Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.04 billion, Bopha is the most costly typhoon ever to hit the Philippines. The previous record was the $600 million price tag of 2009's Typhoon Parma.


Figure 5. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

6) Northern Hemisphere Warmth (throughout 2012)
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere reached record warm monthly values for four consecutive months (April - July). Much of the unusual warmth occurred in North America; Canada was 3rd warmest on record for the period January- September, and the United States had its warmest year on record. Many European countries and Russia had record to near-record warm summer temperatures in 2012.


Figure 6. This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River on June 28, 2012, as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in Carpentersville, IL imag credit: wunderphotographer pjpix.

7) Eurasian Continent Cold Wave (January 24 - February 17)
Europe's worst cold snap in at least 26 years hit central and eastern Europe hard during a 3-week period in late January and the first half of February. The 824 deaths being blamed on the cold wave made it 2012's second deadliest weather disaster. Parts of the Danube River froze over for the first time in 25 years, and Northeast China through eastern Inner Mongolia recorded extremely cold minimum temperatures ranging between -30°C to -40°C.


Figure 7. Snow falls in Trogir, Croatia on February 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer antoniomise.

8) China Floods (July 21 - 22)
Torrential downpours on July 21 - 22 affected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, with several stations recording their highest daily precipitation on record. Mentougou recorded an impressive 305.2 mm (12 inches) of precipitation in one day. The floods killed 129 people and did $4.8 billion in damage, one of a record nine billion-dollar weather disasters to affect China in 2012.


Figure 8. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says these were the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

9) Pakistan Floods (August 21 - September 30)
Torrential monsoon rains caused deadly floods in Pakistan, with Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces the hardest hit. Over 5 million people and over 400,000 hectares of crops were affected by the floods, with more than 460,000 houses and infrastructures damaged or destroyed. The death toll of 455 made it Earth's 3rd deadliest weather-related disaster of 2012.


Figure 9. A driver makes his way on a street flooded from heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

10) African Floods (July - October)
Heavy rains in Nigeria killed at least 431, making it Earth's 4th deadliest weather disaster of 2012. Over 3 million people were affected by flooding across 15 countries in Africa, most notably Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The floods destroyed farmlands, homes, and schools, and caused outbreaks of cholera and other diseases.

Other Top Ten Weather Lists of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED...........SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
415 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

INC129-163-KYC101-122245-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130112T2245Z/
VANDERBURGH IN-POSEY IN-HENDERSON KY-
415 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL POSEY AND
VANDERBURGH COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTH CENTRAL
HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 445 PM CST...

AT 412 PM CST...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF KASSON...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HENDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THOSE ATTENDING THE MONSTER TRUCK RALLY AT THE FORD CENTER SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY...IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM AND PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornado warned storm is still marching toward Evansville, IN. People in tornado warned area need to take shelter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very dangerous storm here...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
415 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

INC129-163-KYC101-122245-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130112T2245Z/
VANDERBURGH IN-POSEY IN-HENDERSON KY-
415 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL POSEY AND
VANDERBURGH COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTH CENTRAL
HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 445 PM CST...

AT 412 PM CST...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF KASSON...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HENDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.


THOSE ATTENDING THE MONSTER TRUCK RALLY AT THE FORD CENTER SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY...IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM AND PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT... EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PADUCAH.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 8760 3801 8744 3796 8745 3782 8762
3795 8781
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 217DEG 46KT 3795 8763

$$

SMITH
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
Gandolf? Nah, try Aaron... the confusion continues

Blizzard Aaron

More Confusion, not less


Gotta love how people are confusing the National Weather Service and the Weather Channel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Sorry, but I pointed out that 1954 was a severe Plains drought year and also had a very bad East Coast hurricane in mid-October. And that was nearly sixty years ago. If I dug further, I imagine I could find a similar pattern in the late 1800s.


Saying "I found a year with a big drought and a hurricane in the same year" is nowhere near the evidence provided by indeces such as the climate extremes index. One drought occuring one time doesn't say anything about trends in magnitude or frequency. I imagine you'll find evidence of droughts and hurricanes happening in the 1800s as well. But that's an irrelevant red herring, because even when you do, it will say little about today's documented increases in extreme weather.
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Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


It's one miserable day over here today. Am sitting here with windows and doors actually closed.

Sure know there's no fishing in the next 24 hours or so.

And so we wait.....

Lindy


Hi Lindy. I think the fishing may have to wait for at least until Tuesday because of this:

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2013

...LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS...GENERATED BY A DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WILL BEGIN ARRIVING INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT...BUILD THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS WITH VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS...AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WATER LEVEL RISES
THAT COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING.

PRZ010-013-VIZ002-130945-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0002.130113T0400Z-130115T2100Z/
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-VIEQUES-ST CROIX-
533 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2013

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
5 PM AST TUESDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
5 PM AST TUESDAY.

* WAVES AND SURF: SWELLS OF 5 TO 8 FEET WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 9
TO 13 FEET.

* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES
AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS. SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ARE POSSIBLE.

THE TIMES OF SOME HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

MAYAGUEZ:

ESPERANZA VIEQUES: MONDAY 10:28 AM AT 0.76 FEET

CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX:MONDAY 10:11 AM AT 0.78 FEET

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Quoting Astrometeor:


So far, solar scientists do not know whether or not the sun can affect Earth's climate. There is a good chance it can, the solar cycle and the sun in general is strong not weak as you observed. Also, we do not have the capability yet to measure the sun's impact on Earth, that is one reason why the debate has continued.

...That's not exactly accurate. Were you unaware of the different satellites that have continually monitored total solar irradiance for decades now? Were you unaware of the multiple proxies for solar activity that have been compared with temperature to estimate the impact of solar cycles and longer-term astronomical cycles on earth's climate?
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
7-day for the Tampa bay area.................
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hopefully the NE Caribbean gets the normal rains this year as last year was below normal. Let's see how the mid level inestability will be.


It's one miserable day over here today. Am sitting here with windows and doors actually closed.

Sure know there's no fishing in the next 24 hours or so.

And so we wait.....

Lindy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
562. Skyepony (Mod)
ST. LOUIS (AP) - Crews have completed the most critical phase of removing bedrock that threatened barges along a crucial stretch of the drought-starved Mississippi River, staving off the shipping industry's fears that the treacherous channel could close to traffic, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said Saturday.

Using excavators and explosives, corps-hired contractors cleared 365 cubic yards of limestone and added two vital feet of depth to the channel near Thebes, Ill., about 130 miles south of St. Louis, the corps said. That phase, which began last month, addressed the most pressing threat to mariners and additional rock removal is expected nearby, the corps said.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37852
I hope the tornado's stop..................
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Forsaken:
Here in florida, high temps have been over 84 degrees for the last 5 days straight.


I see. I was just wondering when the cold temperatures will reach South Florida. I live there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
405 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

INC129-163-KYC101-122245-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130112T2245Z/
VANDERBURGH IN-POSEY IN-HENDERSON KY-
405 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN POSEY AND
VANDERBURGH COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN HENDERSON
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 445 PM CST...



AT 358 PM CST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE TO A CHURCH IN
LIVINGSTON COUNTY KENTUCKY WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF CORYDON...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BRECKINRIDGE CENTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

AT 403 PM CST...A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A WALL CLOUD ABOUT 3
MILES NORTHEAST OF MORGANFIELD KENTUCKY.

THOSE ATTENDING THE MONSTER TRUCK RALLY AT THE FORD CENTER IN
EVANSVILLE INDIANA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE PATH OF THE STORM WILL
BE CLOSE TO THIS AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...BE
PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER...AND SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT... EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PADUCAH.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 8760 3801 8744 3796 8745 3769 8775
3776 8776 3777 8782 3784 8789 3784 8791
3781 8791 3777 8796 3779 8798 3785 8792
3784 8789 3787 8790
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 220DEG 41KT 3780 8778

$$

SMITH
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Forsaken:
Here in florida, high temps have been over 84 degrees for the last 5 days straight.
Quoting Forsaken:
Here in florida, high temps have been over 84 degrees for the last 5 days straight.
..yeah just looked at the 7-day..thurs the high will be only 70..brrrr lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Almost 80 here in South Texas too, LOL
wow thats a 50 degree difference..make that 2 cups of coffee lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here in florida, high temps have been over 84 degrees for the last 5 days straight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm damage in Hampton, KY

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Quoting CaribBoy:


Lol THAT'S WHY I HATE THE DRY SEASON! And that's WHY I HATE WHEN THE SAL KILLS THE RAIN DURING THE RAINY SEASON!!!


Hopefully the NE Caribbean gets the normal rains this year as last year was below normal. Let's see how the mid level inestability will be.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Almost 80 here in South Texas too, LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Um...when is it going to get cold in South Florida?
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Bohonk your going to need that coffee tomorrow morning..
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
349 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
GIBSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
POSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 545 PM CST.

* AT 340 PM CST...A SMALL BUT STRONG AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH INTO THE FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY PENNYRILE
AREA AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THIS AREA OF STORMS
HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME OVER THE
KENTUCKY PURCHASE AREA. CREEKS AND DITCHES WILL QUICKLY RISE OUT OF
THEIR BANKS...FLOODING ROADWAYS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
MOUNT VERNON...EVANSVILLE...MELODY HILL...NEWBURGH...CHANDLER...
FORT BRANCH...BOONVILLE...PRINCETON...OAKLAND CITY...PETERSBURG...
BLAIRSVILLE...KASSON...POSEYVILLE...DARMSTADT...CY NTHIANA...
HAUBSTADT...OWENSVILLE...LYNNVILLE...FOLSOMVILLE AND WINSLOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1. TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED
AREA.
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Rotation is still there, going toward Evansville, IN. Take the shelter if you're in the tornado warned area!


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dangerous weather out there today folks..stay safe...............BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
349PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN POSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
WESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST.

* AT 344 PM CST...RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND
DAMAGE IN MCCRACKEN AND LIVINGSTON COUNTY KENTUCKY...AS WELL AS
MASSAC COUNTY ILLINOIS DURING THE PAST TWO HOURS. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MORGANFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
BRECKINRIDGE CENTER...EVANSVILLE...MELODY HILL...UNIONTOWN...
CORYDON...KASSON...DARMSTADT AND WAVERLY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 164 BETWEEN EXITS 1 AND 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT...EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Storm damage in Clinton, Kentucky.




Was that a grain silo?

Broncos 7 - Ravens 7
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5817
Quoting Levi32:


I want the NOGAPS ensembles, but the NOMADS data server packs them very differently than they do the CMC and GFS ensembles, so they aren't as compatible with my algorithm. It may take some time for me to dream up a way to properly integrate the NOGAPS ensembles.

I, too, could care less about the operational NOGAPS, but having it around doesn't hurt. For that reason, I will only be running it at 12-hour forecast intervals, not the full 3-hour temporal resolution, so it doesn't take up many server resources.
Levi for the summer do you see the islands and carribean getting more rain than last year? For Puerto Rico last year it was abnormally dry.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Does that include NOGAPS Ensembles?

...personally, I could careless what the operational NOGAPS has to say lol


I want the NOGAPS ensembles, but the NOMADS data server packs them very differently than they do the CMC and GFS ensembles, so they aren't as compatible with my algorithm. It may take some time for me to dream up a way to properly integrate the NOGAPS ensembles.

I, too, could care less about the operational NOGAPS, but having it around doesn't hurt. For that reason, I will only be running it at 12-hour forecast intervals, not the full 3-hour temporal resolution, so it doesn't take up many server resources.
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12Z GFS @ 300 hours. This looks like a McFarland Event (although a "weak" one).

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Storm damage in Clinton, Kentucky.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event where the polar vortex of westerly winds in the winter hemisphere abruptly (i.e. over the course of a few days) slows down or even reverses direction, accompanied by a rise of stratospheric temperature by several tens of kelvins. This is considered to be the most dramatic meteorological event in the stratosphere.
_________________________________________________ ____

Is this what happened?

Yes.

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A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event where the polar vortex of westerly winds in the winter hemisphere abruptly (i.e. over the course of a few days) slows down or even reverses direction, accompanied by a rise of stratospheric temperature by several tens of kelvins. This is considered to be the most dramatic meteorological event in the stratosphere.
_________________________________________________ ____

Is this what happened?
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Quoting yonzabam:


And which cycle would that be? The only solar cycle I'm aware of is the 11 year cycle, which isn't nearly strong enough.
Well, one can look at the correlation of the Maunder Minimum to the depths of the Little Ice Age in Europe. Some have theorized that the greater the number of sunspots, the fewer cosmic rays that reach the Earth, and there was an experiment where it showed increased cosmic rays increased cloud formation, which could lead to cooling. We really haven't been observing the sun with sophisticated instruments long enough to have a good sense of the possible longer-term cycles or variabilities.
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Quoting Levi32:


Thanks Adrian.

I will be bringing some NOGAPS products online likely later today (big deal, right? lol). The NAM may show its face later as well. I wish I could afford ECMWF data, but, well, I can't lol.

I hope to add many more tropics-related products as time goes on, at least for the Atlantic, if I can't afford to do it for other regions. Right now I'm just putting this current product set up for server stress testing and bug fixing. Once I'm confident I can add more, I will.
Does that include NOGAPS Ensembles?

...personally, I could careless what the operational NOGAPS has to say lol
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Tornado warnings is continuing for this storm.

025
WFUS53 KPAH 122126
TORPAH
KYC225-122145-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0003.130112T2126Z-130112T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
UNION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST.

* AT 323 PM CST...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
MILES WEST OF STURGIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
MORGANFIELD AND UNIONTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT...EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PADUCAH.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 8798 3777 8796 3780 8793 3774 8781
3751 8806 3758 8814 3766 8816 3770 8813
3775 8805 3780 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 216DEG 35KT 3761 8809

$$

SMITH







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Record cold expected in Denver [for playoff game]

DENVER -- That glove Peyton Manning has been wearing on his throwing hand will come in quite handy Saturday for what could be the coldest home postseason game in Denver Broncos' history.

Those not playing may want to sit on the heated benches -- or next to the electric heaters -- because the game-time temperature when the Broncos host the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC divisional playoffs is expected to be 17 degrees, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Jim Kalina.

In other words, "bundle up," Kalina said.

The coldest postseason contest at Mile High was 18 degrees for the 1977 AFC Championship Game, when Denver beat Oakland 20-17.

The chilliest home game ever in Denver? That would be 9 degrees against San Diego on Dec 10, 1972.

[more at link, click on headline]
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Just watched a totally hokey movie with Charles Bronson... "The White Buffalo" One of the worst ever...........I Loved it..


I have seen that movie. It was interesting, but hokey.

54.2 (13:25)
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5817
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Tornado warning is still up for that area, but the storm is weakening.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Have you tried this?


Enter a warning server. Go to view and warning settings.

http://warnings.weatherdata.info/

Enter that in the box ^

Thanks, it now works.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is ridiculous. We have the air on here in southeastern North Carolina. Broke a 123 year old record...and by 3F so far.




Post #496.

I got it working now, thanks.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Lucky you, I still don't see my warnings...
No idea.. I think it's a Will Robinson thing...
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This is ridiculous. We have the air on here in southeastern North Carolina. Broke a 123 year old record...and by 3F so far.



Quoting wxchaser97:

Lucky you, I still don't see my warnings...

Post #496.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Lucky you, I still don't see my warnings...
Have you tried this?


Enter a warning server. Go to view and warning settings.

http://warnings.weatherdata.info/

Enter that in the box ^
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


Actually, when I clicked on "Warnings", the warnings came up.

Lucky you, I still don't see my warnings...
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Some but not a whole lot.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT NOT MOVE VERY
MUCH. SAME APPLIES TO THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND IN TANDEM THEY WILL CAUSE A LONG TRAJECTORY OF AIR FLOWING HERE
FROM THE NORTHEAST...GENERALLY DRY AND COOL.

BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS BETWEEN PR/USVI AND 20N MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL PASS OVER THESE ISLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BAND
WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS TO BARE MINIMUM SUN/MON. NAM/GFS EVEN
DRY OUT THE 1000-850 MB LAYER MORE THAN USUAL.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK CLOSER TO EASTERLY BY
WED/THU WHICH WILL BRING TRADE WIND SHOWERS BACK MORE TO NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

HEAVY SURF EXPECTED TONIGHT/SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION
TO BUOYS WELL NORTH OF AREA. EARLY INDICATIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO
QUITE AS SERIOUS AS MODELS SUGGESTED.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS.

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ON COASTAL WATERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS TO BUILD TONIGHT...
MAINLY ON ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

LARGE SWELL EVENT IS SLOW TO BEGIN. GRAPHICAL GWW MODEL INDICATES
BUOY 41049 SHOULD BE ALMOST 13 FT BY 18Z THOUGH SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD SWELLS ARE PROBABLY JUST NOW ARRIVING THERE. BUT 18Z
OBSERVATION IS STILL ABOUT 9 FT. PR/USVI COASTAL WATERS SHOWING
7-8 FT SEAS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ON ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 80 77 81 / 60 10 10 20
STT 76 82 76 83 / 40 10 10 10


Lol THAT'S WHY I HATE THE DRY SEASON! And that's WHY I HATE WHEN THE SAL KILLS THE RAIN DURING THE RAINY SEASON!!!
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The storm is Kentucky is the only one currently not elevated in nature. We should see more of these types of cells develop throughout the evening as instability and wind shear increase.

A Tornado Watch will be needed shortly.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
304 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

ILC069-KYC055-139-122130-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130112T2130Z/
HARDIN IL-LIVINGSTON KY-CRITTENDEN KY-
304 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 330 PM CST...

AT 300 PM CST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BURNA...
OR 17 MILES WEST OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
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Just watched a totally hokey movie with Charles Bronson... "The White Buffalo" One of the worst ever...........I Loved it..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.