Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2013

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It was another year of incredible weather extremes globally during 2012. The year featured two of the most expensive weather disasters in world history--Hurricane Sandy and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012, which will both cost more than $50 billion. Thankfully, no disasters had a death toll in excess of 2,000, though the 1,901 people dead or missing due to Super Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines may rank as that nation's 2nd deadliest typhoon ever. Twenty-six weather disasters costing at least $1 billion occurred globally, according to insurance broker AON Benfield. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters in 2011. Nine billion-dollar weather disasters hit China, their highest total in a decade of record-keeping. I present for you, now, the top ten global weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact:



1) New Record Minimum for Arctic Sea Ice (September 16)
Sea ice extent in the Arctic fell to 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that 2012's Arctic weather was much cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during 2012s minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean." Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The fall air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is that is causes increased melting in Greenland, contributing to sea level rise.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day near the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. It won't be many years before Santa's workshop needs pontoons in the summer to stay afloat.

2) Agricultural Drought in the U.S., Europe, and Asia (Summer)
Drought is civilization's great enemy, and the most dangerous threat from global warming. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. In a harbinger of things to come, severe droughts affected important agricultural regions across the globe during summer 2012, including eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. Wheat, corn, and soybean crops were among those heavily impacted; global food prices rose by 10 percent during July. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August, and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is going to be one of the top-five most expensive weather disasters in world history.


Figure 2. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.

3) Superstorm Sandy (October 29)
Hurricane Sandy was the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. Ten hours before landfall, at 9:30 am EDT October 29, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to more than five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the U.S. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall in excess of 12 inches to the mid-Atlantic, and blizzard conditions to the central and southern Appalachians. Sandy's late-season show of unprecedented strength, unusual track, and exceptionally damaging storm surge were made more likely due to climate change, and the storm helped bring more awareness and debate about the threat of climate change to the U.S. than any event since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Figure 3. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

4) Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Glacier Calving (July)
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the Greenland ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. But during four consecutive days July 11 - 14, temperatures rose above freezing at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle. Melting of the ice sheet dramatically accelerated, and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. This was the greatest melt since 1889, according to ice core records. On July 16, an iceberg twice the size of Manhattan calved from the Petermann Glacier in Northeast Greenland. This was the second huge ice island to calve from the glacier since 2010. The glacier's margins have now retreated to the farthest point in the last 150 years. The record melt in Greenland caused the highest loss of ice mass observed in the satellite era, and melting from Greenland is now thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total.


Figure 4. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

5) Super Typhoon Bopha (December 3 - 4)
The deadliest weather disaster of 2012 was Super Typhoon Bopha. Bopha was the strongest typhoon ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead or missing, mostly on the island of Mindanao. If the missing people are presumed dead, this total would make Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.04 billion, Bopha is the most costly typhoon ever to hit the Philippines. The previous record was the $600 million price tag of 2009's Typhoon Parma.


Figure 5. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

6) Northern Hemisphere Warmth (throughout 2012)
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere reached record warm monthly values for four consecutive months (April - July). Much of the unusual warmth occurred in North America; Canada was 3rd warmest on record for the period January- September, and the United States had its warmest year on record. Many European countries and Russia had record to near-record warm summer temperatures in 2012.


Figure 6. This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River on June 28, 2012, as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in Carpentersville, IL imag credit: wunderphotographer pjpix.

7) Eurasian Continent Cold Wave (January 24 - February 17)
Europe's worst cold snap in at least 26 years hit central and eastern Europe hard during a 3-week period in late January and the first half of February. The 824 deaths being blamed on the cold wave made it 2012's second deadliest weather disaster. Parts of the Danube River froze over for the first time in 25 years, and Northeast China through eastern Inner Mongolia recorded extremely cold minimum temperatures ranging between -30°C to -40°C.


Figure 7. Snow falls in Trogir, Croatia on February 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer antoniomise.

8) China Floods (July 21 - 22)
Torrential downpours on July 21 - 22 affected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, with several stations recording their highest daily precipitation on record. Mentougou recorded an impressive 305.2 mm (12 inches) of precipitation in one day. The floods killed 129 people and did $4.8 billion in damage, one of a record nine billion-dollar weather disasters to affect China in 2012.


Figure 8. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says these were the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

9) Pakistan Floods (August 21 - September 30)
Torrential monsoon rains caused deadly floods in Pakistan, with Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces the hardest hit. Over 5 million people and over 400,000 hectares of crops were affected by the floods, with more than 460,000 houses and infrastructures damaged or destroyed. The death toll of 455 made it Earth's 3rd deadliest weather-related disaster of 2012.


Figure 9. A driver makes his way on a street flooded from heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

10) African Floods (July - October)
Heavy rains in Nigeria killed at least 431, making it Earth's 4th deadliest weather disaster of 2012. Over 3 million people were affected by flooding across 15 countries in Africa, most notably Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The floods destroyed farmlands, homes, and schools, and caused outbreaks of cholera and other diseases.

Other Top Ten Weather Lists of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've noticed the models are gradually backing off with the airmass modifying before it reaches the East Coast, and instead show it maintaining intensity.

Also...

It continues to send systems into the area after the initial one. Just as strong at that.

End of the 18z GFS:

Wow.Bring it on!.No more sissy temps!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
Quoting nymore:
It is not free every taxpayer pays for it.


I don't live in EEUU.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PedleyCA:



Was that a grain silo?

Broncos 7 - Ravens 7
Rooting for Ray Lewis.....Peyton Manning has the largest forehead I have ever seen on a human being.... My bf is laughing his butt off, I told him what I typed
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
I just like the title of the article.

Ol' Man Winter
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10329
Broncos 21 - Ravens 21 - Halftime

Walnut @ I-25 (40) (MADIS)
Temperature: 13 F
Dew Point: 2 F
Humidity: 62%
Wind: SSW at 6mph
Pressure: -in
Precipitation: -in
Daily Precip.: -in
Road1: 29 F, Dry
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5911
Miami NWS Disco

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH INTO MONTANA/DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BY
DAY 10/JAN 22 - A 1052MB ARCTIC HIGH. WHETHER OR NOT THIS AIRMASS
PLUNGES ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S./FLORIDA IS JUST TOO
EARLY TO TELL, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL LATE JANUARY
COLD SPELL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser19:


GFS is free!!!!!!!!!! :)
It is not free every taxpayer pays for it.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The price tag for ECMWF data is beyond ridiculous. I don't care how good the model is.


Dr. Ryan Maue has me completely beat because he has WeatherBell to pay for it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah, $1600 for model data over a 5.5 by 4.625 degree box, lol. Full access (all time stamps, all variables, full global coverage and full resolution) to the operational run will costs you about 187k (140,000 Euro) just for one year of use. And that's not including potential additional costs from the deliverer.

See Example 3.

The price tag for ECMWF data is beyond ridiculous. I don't care how good the model is.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32259
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Damage in Paducah, KY.



Lol, there was a similar incident during Sandy where a trampoline got stuck on a power line in CT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
Bohonk your going to need that coffee tomorrow morning..
A.C. on now, will need heat by tonight, going to be a 40 degree drop at least. Unfortunately after 1 good rain we are back in a very dry pattern, rains are in extreme east texas and La. is getting way too much rain. Weird how the rains are staying just out of the major drought areas in the U.S.A.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah, $1600 for model data over a 5.5 by 4.625 degree box, lol. Full access (all time stamps, all variables, full global coverage and full resolution) to the operational run will costs you about 187k (140,000 Euro) just for one year of use. And that's not including potential additional costs from the deliverer.

See Example 3.


GFS is free!!!!!!!!!! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
612. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Astrometeor:


Woah.

Hold on, let me call some random rich person and ask them if they have some spare change, lol.

What are they trying to do? Fund the model by selling the info?


That's pretty much how Europe weather service works. Instead of it being payed for by taxes & the info distributed freely they sell their end products & use that money to fund their models & such.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38148
Quoting Levi32:
And example product sets for ECMWF ensembles....

If only I was rich...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah, $1600 for model data over a 5.5 by 4.625 degree box, lol. Full access (all time stamps, all variables, full global coverage and full resolution) to the operational run will costs you about 187k (140,000 Euro) just for one year of use. And that's not including potential additional costs from the deliverer.

Source. See Example 3.
Yeah that is just wayyyyyy too much money for me to even consider.
*Also you have mail...*

Well there was a rain-rapped funnel cloud reported in Evansville, hopefully it never touched down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
609. wxmod
Air quality index in Beijing has been OFF THE CHARTS for 17 hours straight! This is like sitting in your closed garage with your car running.


#
BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-13-2013 06:00; PM2.5; 584.0; 555; Beyond Index

#
2h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-13-2013 05:00; PM2.5; 673.0; 614; Beyond Index


#
3h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-13-2013 04:00; PM2.5; 651.0; 599; Beyond Index


#
4h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-13-2013 03:00; PM2.5; 684.0; 621; Beyond Index


#
5h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-13-2013 02:00; PM2.5; 722.0; 646; Beyond Index


#
6h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-13-2013 01:00; PM2.5; 731.0; 652; Beyond Index


#
7h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-12-2013 00:00 to 01-12-2013 23:59; PM2.5 24hr avg; 568.5; 545; Beyond Index


#
7h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-13-2013 00:00; PM2.5; 744.0; 661; Beyond Index


8h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-12-2013 23:00; PM2.5; 805.0; 701; Beyond Index


#
9h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-12-2013 22:00; PM2.5; 858.0; 736; Beyond Index


#
10h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-12-2013 21:00; PM2.5; 852.0; 732; Beyond Index


#
11h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-12-2013 20:00; PM2.5; 886.0; 755; Beyond Index

#
12h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-12-2013 19:00; PM2.5; 824.0; 714; Beyond Index


#
13h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-12-2013 18:00; PM2.5; 776.0; 682; Beyond Index

#
14h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-12-2013 17:00; PM2.5; 810.0; 704; Beyond Index

#
15h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-12-2013 16:00; PM2.5; 845.0; 728; Beyond Index


#
16h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-12-2013 15:00; PM2.5; 802.0; 699; Beyond Index


17h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-12-2013 14:00; PM2.5; 529.0; 519; Beyond Index


#
18h BeijingAir
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

$1600 (USD) for model data...

Not even going to question it.
Yeah, $1600 for model data over a 5.5 by 4.625 degree box, lol. Full access (all time stamps, all variables, full global coverage and full resolution) to the operational run will costs you about 187k (140,000 Euro) just for one year of use. And that's not including potential additional costs from the deliverer.

See Example 3.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New warning on that storm, but it is a severe thunderstorm warning this time(70mph winds).
587
WUUS53 KLMK 122300
SVRLMK
INC037-130000-
/O.NEW.KLMK.SV.W.0001.130112T2300Z-130113T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DUBOIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 700 PM EST

* AT 558 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HOLLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
JASPER...
HOLLAND...
DUFF AND HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT...
HUNTINGBURG...
BRETZVILLE AND IRELAND...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCED WARNING. TAKE COVER NOW!

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...POST YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET YOUR
REPORT USING HASHTAG L...M...K...SPOTTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 8708 3852 8702 3851 8696 3849 8695
3851 8694 3850 8688 3853 8684 3853 8669
3827 8668 3820 8702 3820 8707 3821 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 238DEG 26KT 3816 8728
WIND...HAIL 70MPH <.50IN

$$

MJ

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've noticed the models are gradually backing off with the airmass modifying before it reaches the East Coast, and instead show it maintaining intensity.

Also...

It continues to send systems into the area after the initial one. Just as strong at that.

End of the 18z GFS:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32259
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The big question is if the 2013 severe season will be active as it started very early like in 2011. This graphic doesn't include the January 12 activity.



? Sporadic Dixie Alley tornadoes do hit sometimes in January, and I'm not sure how this year got off to an active start? Unless you're referencing the Christmas outbreak. 2011 blew in with a tornado outbreak the night before, an event rightfully touted as a harbinger of things to come. However, January that year was pretty quiet, only 16 tornadoes. January 2012 actually had a lot more - 79.
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Damage in Paducah, KY.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
602. wxmod
Air pollution in Beijing surpasses 'health hazard' levels

link:
http://rt.com/news/china-pollution-beijing-hazard -851/

The us embassy recorded 850 micrograms per cubic metre of pm2.5
This is extreme, beyond belief.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1764
The tornado warned storm is likely producing a tornado at this time, and has likely done so in the past already. This would make it the fourth confirmed tornado of 2013, after three EF1s on January 10th.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32259
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

$1600 (USD) for model data...

Not even going to question it.


That was only for a tiny, tiny lat-lon geographical sub-region. The global grid is 10-20 times that cost.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
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And example product sets for ECMWF ensembles....

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Evansville, IN weather cam
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Well, apparently a freaking lot, especially for full resolution data.

Click to enlarge:



Source

$1600 (USD) for model data...

Not even going to question it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32259
Quoting Levi32:


Well, apparently a freaking lot, especially for full resolution data.


Woah.

Hold on, let me call some random rich person and ask them if they have some spare change, lol.

What are they trying to do? Fund the model by selling the info?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10329
Quoting TomTaylor:
Alright cool. Also, you mentioned euro data being to expensive in a previous post, which got me wondering, how much does it the ECMWF data cost? And what products are included in the purchasing of a license?

And btw, great job on the new model page, it is awesome.


Well, apparently a freaking lot, especially for full resolution data. They appear to offer no pre-made packages but instead negotiate over email for whatever the user requests, and then set a price. They give certain examples.

Click to enlarge:



Source
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting ScottLincoln:

The fact that you are confusing the two further suggests your misunderstanding of the entire climate science debate.

Do you not remember all of the many times specifics were asked regarding which scientists blamed Sandy on climate change? Again, for probably the 20th time, it is incorrect to say that Sandy was caused by climate change.

I guess you missed where I commented about a dude from the League of Conservation Voters saying Sandy was proof of climate change - from what someone else posted. That's what started all of this. And one of the leading AGW proponents on this forum tried to insinuate that Sandy, coupled with the other weather disasters this year, is indicative of climate change. Why don't you take him to task?

Funny how you get after the skeptic for using the methodology of the proponents to show they are misguided, but don't get after the proponents.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 492
The big question is if the 2013 severe season will be active as it started very early like in 2011. This graphic doesn't include the January 12 activity.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14315
New tornado warning for area to northeast of Evansville, IN.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
Quoting Levi32:
Well there's definitely snow around when the GFS brings the polar vortex south. If it happens we'll have to see about lake-effect. I'm pretty sure that can be shut off no matter how cold the air is if the air has no moisture in it and the environmental lapse rate is stable. The snow seen in the image below, except for over Lake Superior, is not lake-effect.

Yaaaaaaay.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Long island Express struck just a week and a half after the "peak" of the season, speeding north-northeastward.

Try again. ;-)


Looks North-Northwest to me. You may want to learn how to read a compass. Go ask the ten year old neighbor kid he/she can show how



As always with your propaganda why let facts get in the way
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
I wish I could see this move over my house. Warm weather is nice, but doesn't allow snow to fall in the winter. :(



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 122145Z - 130315Z

SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NERN OK NEWD INTO W-CNTRL IL AS
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SSW. LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES
OF 0.05-0.15 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN HEAVIER
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BANDS.

DISCUSSION...AT 21Z...RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN OK AND NWRN AR SPREADING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AR...WITH
SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELING ELEVATED CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...THE FREEZING LINE CURRENTLY RUNS FROM A BVO-20 N JLN-IRK
LINE...WITH THE WET-BULB ZERO LINE RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY
TUL-JLN-COU-UIN. A COMBINATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND MODEST
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW THE FREEZING LINE TO MOVE
SOUTH WITH TIME AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 21-03Z TIMEFRAME SHOULD
MAINTAIN ASCENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH BANDING
AND POTENTIALLY SOME RESIDUAL UPRIGHT BUOYANCY MAINTAINING
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP RATES. THE NRN PART OF THE MCD
AREA IS LIKELY TO CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW BY 00Z...WITH NARROW
TRANSITION ZONES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM NW TO SE SOUTH OF
THE SNOW AREA AS THE COLD AIRMASS GETS PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW.

..DEAN.. 01/12/2013
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10329
Quoting Levi32:


I want the NOGAPS ensembles, but the NOMADS data server packs them very differently than they do the CMC and GFS ensembles, so they aren't as compatible with my algorithm. It may take some time for me to dream up a way to properly integrate the NOGAPS ensembles.

I, too, could care less about the operational NOGAPS, but having it around doesn't hurt. For that reason, I will only be running it at 12-hour forecast intervals, not the full 3-hour temporal resolution, so it doesn't take up many server resources.
Alright cool. Also, you mentioned euro data being to expensive in a previous post, which got me wondering, how much does it the ECMWF data cost? And what products are included in the purchasing of a license?

And btw, great job on the new model page, it is awesome.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Ah, so when an AGW proponent points to the current drought and Sandy as proof of climate change, that's hunky-dory, but let a skeptic point out historical similarities and that proves nothing? Typical double-standard from AGW proponents.

The fact that you are confusing the two further suggests your misunderstanding of the entire climate science debate.

Do you not remember all of the many times specifics were asked regarding which scientists blamed Sandy on climate change? Again, for probably the 20th time, it is incorrect to say that Sandy was caused by climate change. It is also incorrect to say that the hurricane you found in the 1800s was caused by climate change, or climate stability. Individual hurricanes/floods/droughts/cold spells area function of complex interactions of different air masses trying to balance out heat energy across the planet, commonly referred to as weather. The magnitude and frequency of these types of events is referred to as climate.

Although some events may have occurred or may have been prevented by changes in the climate over the last few decades, we have no way of knowing because we do not have two identical Earths, one with an enhanced greenhouse effect and one without. As such, individual events are very difficult to attribute to global climate change. What has been documented, however, is an increase in extreme weather, especially those associated with warmer temperatures.

There were droughts in the past, there will be droughts in the future. There were cold spells in the past, there will be cold spells in the future. And on and on and on. Those facts alone say little, if anything, about climate change.

I'm assuming that with this review of climate science we won't be making any more dishonest statements about climate scientists.
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If you are in area, you will NOT see the possible tornado coming because of the rain just ahead of the storm, as you can see here in this image of the radar.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If there is a tornado on the ground it is passing over Evansville now.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7835
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
423 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

INC163-KYC101-122245-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130112T2245Z/
VANDERBURGH IN-HENDERSON KY-
423 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTH CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY UNTIL 445 PM CST...

AT 416 PM CST...A STORM...POSSIBLY CONTAINING A TORNADO...WAS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EVANSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM HAS BEEN INCREASING IN SPEED DURING
THE LAST 15 MINUTES. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK
COVER NOW.

AT 412 PM CST...EVANSVILLE NEWS MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF A
UNCONFIRMED TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR WAVERLY.

THOSE ATTENDING THE MONSTER TRUCK RALLY AT THE FORD CENTER SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
@reedtimmerTVN

Funnel cloud spotted headed straight for Evansville, IN!!!!! Monster truck rally is in direct path of this storm! #inwx #kywx


Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTH CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY UNTIL 445 PM CST...

AT 416 PM CST...A STORM...POSSIBLY CONTAINING A TORNADO...WAS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EVANSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM HAS BEEN INCREASING IN SPEED DURING
THE LAST 15 MINUTES. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK
COVER NOW.

AT 412 PM CST...EVANSVILLE NEWS MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF A
UNCONFIRMED TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR WAVERLY.


THOSE ATTENDING THE MONSTER TRUCK RALLY AT THE FORD CENTER SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT... EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PADUCAH.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 8760 3801 8744 3796 8745 3786 8761
3795 8769
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 228DEG 34KT 3795 8759

$$

SMITH
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7835
Quoting ScottLincoln:

...That's not exactly accurate. Were you unaware of the different satellites that have continually monitored total solar irradiance for decades now? Were you unaware of the multiple proxies for solar activity that have been compared with temperature to estimate the impact of solar cycles and longer-term astronomical cycles on earth's climate?


I recognize that we have plenty of solar satellites up there now but, considering the cycle is 11 years, and satellites have only been able to witness what 3 or 4, that's not enough data to determine the effects, the sun and the earth have been here for 4 billion years, and we only have 4 decades of data. Not impressive. Climate is long-term, I believe we shall have to wait a while as the data trickles in before making an assumption on the sun-climate theory. Same goes for the climate of Earth in general.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10329
RE: 568

Tropicsweatherpr:

Thanks for the info. I'm glad I don't live on the north side of the island!! I know that all our fishermen friends on that side have either pulled their boats or moved them to this side this afternoon.

The ground seas can get pretty bad over there. We have the harbor protecting us on this side.

I do hope that the tourists off the ships take heed of the warnings on Megan's tomorrow. The lifeguards are going to have a very busy day with those rip currents and people who ignore the warnings!

Lindy
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HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


No, what is not correct is to say there is a long-term trend for a certain region based on an assumption that there "should be one". In Alaska, no such trend has manifested itself yet. No doubt the globe as a whole has exhibited such a trend, but it has not been seen in the data for Alaska yet. Honesty when presenting the data is always necessary. The global trend may manifest itself in Alaska in the future if the global trend continues, but so far, it has not.

Well I suppose that is your opinion, however it seems that many climate scientists disagree. I do not believe anyone has said there is a long term for Alaska "just because," what was said is that determining the long term trend for Alaska is more difficult than for the globe because of higher noise amplitude.

Perhaps you could state what your threshold is for a trend before it has "manifested?" You've stated that a linear trend of warming about twice that of the global average isn't enough. So what is? 4.0F/century over 30 years? 6.0F/century over 100 years? Be objective and specific.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Saying "I found a year with a big drought and a hurricane in the same year" is nowhere near the evidence provided by indeces such as the climate extremes index. One drought occuring one time doesn't say anything about trends in magnitude or frequency. I imagine you'll find evidence of droughts and hurricanes happening in the 1800s as well. But that's an irrelevant red herring, because even when you do, it will say little about today's documented increases in extreme weather.
Ah, so when an AGW proponent points to the current drought and Sandy as proof of climate change, that's hunky-dory, but let a skeptic point out historical similarities and that proves nothing? Typical double-standard from AGW proponents.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 492
FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED...........SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
415 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

INC129-163-KYC101-122245-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130112T2245Z/
VANDERBURGH IN-POSEY IN-HENDERSON KY-
415 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL POSEY AND
VANDERBURGH COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTH CENTRAL
HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 445 PM CST...

AT 412 PM CST...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF KASSON...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HENDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THOSE ATTENDING THE MONSTER TRUCK RALLY AT THE FORD CENTER SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY...IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM AND PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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