Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2013

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It was another year of incredible weather extremes globally during 2012. The year featured two of the most expensive weather disasters in world history--Hurricane Sandy and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012, which will both cost more than $50 billion. Thankfully, no disasters had a death toll in excess of 2,000, though the 1,901 people dead or missing due to Super Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines may rank as that nation's 2nd deadliest typhoon ever. Twenty-six weather disasters costing at least $1 billion occurred globally, according to insurance broker AON Benfield. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters in 2011. Nine billion-dollar weather disasters hit China, their highest total in a decade of record-keeping. I present for you, now, the top ten global weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact:



1) New Record Minimum for Arctic Sea Ice (September 16)
Sea ice extent in the Arctic fell to 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that 2012's Arctic weather was much cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during 2012s minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean." Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The fall air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is that is causes increased melting in Greenland, contributing to sea level rise.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day near the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. It won't be many years before Santa's workshop needs pontoons in the summer to stay afloat.

2) Agricultural Drought in the U.S., Europe, and Asia (Summer)
Drought is civilization's great enemy, and the most dangerous threat from global warming. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. In a harbinger of things to come, severe droughts affected important agricultural regions across the globe during summer 2012, including eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. Wheat, corn, and soybean crops were among those heavily impacted; global food prices rose by 10 percent during July. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August, and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is going to be one of the top-five most expensive weather disasters in world history.


Figure 2. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.

3) Superstorm Sandy (October 29)
Hurricane Sandy was the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. Ten hours before landfall, at 9:30 am EDT October 29, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to more than five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the U.S. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall in excess of 12 inches to the mid-Atlantic, and blizzard conditions to the central and southern Appalachians. Sandy's late-season show of unprecedented strength, unusual track, and exceptionally damaging storm surge were made more likely due to climate change, and the storm helped bring more awareness and debate about the threat of climate change to the U.S. than any event since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Figure 3. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

4) Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Glacier Calving (July)
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the Greenland ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. But during four consecutive days July 11 - 14, temperatures rose above freezing at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle. Melting of the ice sheet dramatically accelerated, and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. This was the greatest melt since 1889, according to ice core records. On July 16, an iceberg twice the size of Manhattan calved from the Petermann Glacier in Northeast Greenland. This was the second huge ice island to calve from the glacier since 2010. The glacier's margins have now retreated to the farthest point in the last 150 years. The record melt in Greenland caused the highest loss of ice mass observed in the satellite era, and melting from Greenland is now thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total.


Figure 4. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

5) Super Typhoon Bopha (December 3 - 4)
The deadliest weather disaster of 2012 was Super Typhoon Bopha. Bopha was the strongest typhoon ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead or missing, mostly on the island of Mindanao. If the missing people are presumed dead, this total would make Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.04 billion, Bopha is the most costly typhoon ever to hit the Philippines. The previous record was the $600 million price tag of 2009's Typhoon Parma.


Figure 5. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

6) Northern Hemisphere Warmth (throughout 2012)
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere reached record warm monthly values for four consecutive months (April - July). Much of the unusual warmth occurred in North America; Canada was 3rd warmest on record for the period January- September, and the United States had its warmest year on record. Many European countries and Russia had record to near-record warm summer temperatures in 2012.


Figure 6. This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River on June 28, 2012, as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in Carpentersville, IL imag credit: wunderphotographer pjpix.

7) Eurasian Continent Cold Wave (January 24 - February 17)
Europe's worst cold snap in at least 26 years hit central and eastern Europe hard during a 3-week period in late January and the first half of February. The 824 deaths being blamed on the cold wave made it 2012's second deadliest weather disaster. Parts of the Danube River froze over for the first time in 25 years, and Northeast China through eastern Inner Mongolia recorded extremely cold minimum temperatures ranging between -30°C to -40°C.


Figure 7. Snow falls in Trogir, Croatia on February 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer antoniomise.

8) China Floods (July 21 - 22)
Torrential downpours on July 21 - 22 affected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, with several stations recording their highest daily precipitation on record. Mentougou recorded an impressive 305.2 mm (12 inches) of precipitation in one day. The floods killed 129 people and did $4.8 billion in damage, one of a record nine billion-dollar weather disasters to affect China in 2012.


Figure 8. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says these were the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

9) Pakistan Floods (August 21 - September 30)
Torrential monsoon rains caused deadly floods in Pakistan, with Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces the hardest hit. Over 5 million people and over 400,000 hectares of crops were affected by the floods, with more than 460,000 houses and infrastructures damaged or destroyed. The death toll of 455 made it Earth's 3rd deadliest weather-related disaster of 2012.


Figure 9. A driver makes his way on a street flooded from heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

10) African Floods (July - October)
Heavy rains in Nigeria killed at least 431, making it Earth's 4th deadliest weather disaster of 2012. Over 3 million people were affected by flooding across 15 countries in Africa, most notably Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The floods destroyed farmlands, homes, and schools, and caused outbreaks of cholera and other diseases.

Other Top Ten Weather Lists of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting hurricane23:
They are so many free sites now that distribute the european model data no need to pay high fees for it.

First and most frequently used


True enough, but of course, I want to do more, which is why I started plotting model output in the first place, which is why it would be nice to have my own ECMWF data.

I've only got mostly standard stuff for now, but that will change.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR...ARKLATEX...FAR SERN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3...

VALID 130018Z - 130215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 3 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL EXISTS FROM SWRN AR
ACROSS CNTRL AND EVENTUALLY NERN AR THROUGH THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN FROM NERN TX ACROSS SWRN AR
AND INTO NRN AR...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES.
STORMS OVER SWRN AR ARE CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ALONG THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

THE 00Z LZK SOUNDING IS IMPRESSIVE AND INDICATES MORE INSTABILITY
THAN RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE. EVEN
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASING THE MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING
THE SURFACE DEWPOINT TO 65 F STILL YIELDS AROUND 1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...AT LEAST QUADRUPLE WHAT THE RAP MODEL WOULD INDICATE. SHEAR
PROFILES REMAIN VERY STRONG...WITH PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. EFFECTIVE SRH IS OVER 500 M2/S2.

CELLS OVER SWRN AR CURRENTLY SHOW ROTATION. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FRONT AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW. ANY DEVIANT MOTION
JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT MAY GREATLY ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL. IF
THE COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS TOO QUICKLY...TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD BE
GREATLY REDUCED.

..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 01/13/2013


ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON 33039194 32699254 32639369 32719467 32919493 33429505
34749377 35839241 36669129 36889053 36868993 36628958
36068952 34089105 33039194
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8032
Culture - Keith Emerson style

Pictures At An Exhibition

Rondo / Bach Improvisation
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5955
Quoting hurricane23:


Nope.


Hi Adrian. I know is very early as there are 139 days left until June 1rst but what is your early view on how the season may look like in terms of numbers?

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14408
Quoting PedleyCA:
walk on the wild side

55.8 (15:54) 56.2 was the high



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
They are so many free sites now that distribute the european model data no need to pay high fees for it.

First and most frequently used
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bielle:


Why aren't people dropping like flies?

Heres their forecast for the next few days.
Temps down to about -9/C and light winds.
Probably a good chance of major deaths!

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/g etForecast?query=39.904030,116.407526
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Andrea's (maybe) genesis is beginning



Nope.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Andrea's (maybe) genesis is beginning

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not that this unusual for MN/ND but remember to look at the winter survival kit in your car.



. Wind Chill Advisory in effect until noon CST Sunday...

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a Wind
Chill Advisory... which is in effect until noon CST Sunday.

* Timing... hazardous wind chills will occur into Sunday morning.

* Wind chill values... 25 to 40 below zero.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and winds will
combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frost
bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. If
you must venture outdoors... make sure you wear appropriate
clothing... including hat and gloves.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Lead in their paint, lead in their toys, lead in their food, and lead in their ass....
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5897
Quoting wxmod:


China won't tell the world if they are. It's not exactly a free information society.

You wont have to tell the world if millions of people die from breathing related afflictions.
The world will notice it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:


China won't tell the world if they are. It's not exactly a free information society.
\\

True, but word tends to get out. People here have families there; consultants and business people travel back and forth; Hong Kong gets word and passes it along.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:


China won't tell the world if they are. It's not exactly a free information society.
Right
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5897
659. wxmod
Quoting Bielle:


Why aren't people dropping like flies?


China won't tell the world if they are. It's not exactly a free information society.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1765
Quoting wxmod:
Air pollution in Beijing surpasses 'health hazard' levels

link:
http://rt.com/news/china-pollution-beijing-hazard -851/

The us embassy recorded 850 micrograms per cubic metre of pm2.5
This is extreme, beyond belief.


Why aren't people dropping like flies?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PedleyCA:
walk on the wild side

55.8 (15:54) 56.2 was the high

Always was amazed this song made it passed the censors back then
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5897
walk on the wild side

55.8 (15:54) 56.2 was the high

Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5955
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10364
How dry are parts of Texas and How wet are parts of La. Quite a few locations in La. have received more rain in the first 12 days of January than I have received since May 16, 2012. Honestly these locations are relatively close to each other. LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
Holly came from Miami F.L.A.
Hitch hiked her way across the U.S.A.
Plucked her eyebrows on the way
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5897
Quoting nymore:
You may want to check what James Hanson says about Sandy, William Gray said while it is rare it is well with in natural variability.



To hear Hansen or Big Al Gorezeera tell it,
it's "Warmageddon".
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
651. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:49 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
650. PensacolaDoug
11:47 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Uh, yeah. That is the point being made by AGW proponents. Maybe you could try to counter the claims of the proponents with the same energy you are using to try and counter my claims?




Ain't gonna happen. He's all in.


Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
649. nymore
11:41 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Is he a climate scientist? Did he provide evidence to counter the fairly widely-held view by scientists that no one event can be directly-attributed to climate change?
You may want to check what James Hanson says about Sandy, William Gray said while it is rare it is well with in natural variability.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
648. wxmod
11:38 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
China today. MODIS satellite photo of air pollution off the charts; beyond hazardous.(what does that mean? Will five million Chinese die of strangulation today?) This is what happens when business as usual has it's way. I once read that an economist said China was the "best run country in the world."

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1765
647. Bluestorm5
11:38 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Here's the radar image of that tornado warning:

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8032
646. TomTaylor
11:38 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


Dr. Ryan Maue has me completely beat because he has WeatherBell to pay for it.
Aside from standard ECMWF products available on the ECMWF website, wbell doesn't really have that much else available. They have the EPS out to 15 days but that's only for US 2m Temp and 2m Temp anom. Then they have US Precip and Snowfall from the operational.

Aside from that, it's just your standard 850mb temps & temp anoms, 500mb heights and anoms, slp, and 850mb winds.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
645. VR46L
11:37 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
On the Price of the Euro model

Guess that explains why weatherbell is so expensive ..


But just a point about the charging by the euro I can see why they charge for their service rather than having every taxpayer pay for it .. Guess its priorities without meaning to get political Europeans have a lot of universal social provisions
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6932
644. Thrawst
11:37 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
.
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1900
643. Civicane49
11:37 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
642. AGWcreationists
11:35 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Is he a climate scientist? Did he provide evidence to counter the fairly widely-held view by scientists that no one event can be directly-attributed to climate change?

Ah, so there's the distinction. Sandy... coupled with all of the other weather disasters this year. So instead of just talking about one event (which again is almost impossible to tie to climate change as a cause), we are talking about numerous events. Over an entire year.
Uh, yeah. That is the point being made by AGW proponents. Maybe you could try to counter the claims of the proponents with the same energy you are using to try and counter my claims?
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 492
641. Tropicsweatherpr
11:35 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Tornado watch issued.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

TORNADO WATCH 3 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC001-011-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-037-03 9-045-051-053-
055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-079-081-0 85-091-093-095-
097-099-103-105-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-1 25-127-133-135-
137-139-141-145-147-149-130600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0003.130112T2320Z-130113T0600Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CROSS DALLAS
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
GREENE HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER
LONOKE MILLER MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
POINSETT POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SALINE SCOTT SEVIER
SHARP ST. FRANCIS STONE
UNION VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

TORNADO WATCH 3 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MOC069-155-130600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0003.130112T2320Z-130113T0600Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$


ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14408
640. Civicane49
11:35 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
639. washingtonian115
11:34 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting Doppler22:

Bring on the snow too!
And that to.Levi posted something showing snow while the artic air was around.I just hope the air isn't to dry to not allow any moisture.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
638. wxchaser97
11:33 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting Bluestorm5:


And we got severe thunderstorm warning already.





A tornado warning has just been issued on that storm.
Lol, TA and MA already posted the warning just before me.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
637. MAweatherboy1
11:33 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Stay safe in AR tonight.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
532 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
EASTERN POLK COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 530 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF WICKES...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF
MENA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60
MPH.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7845
636. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:32 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
532 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
EASTERN POLK COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 530 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF WICKES...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF
MENA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
WICKES... OPAL...
LITTLE MISSOURI FALLS REC AREA... LAKE MENA...
HARTLEY... Y CITY... SHADY...
PINE RIDGE... NUNLEY... INK...
DALLAS... BOARD CAMP... BIG FORK...
YOCANNA... WOLF PINNACLE... WOLF PEN GAP...
WEST HANNA MTN... TURNERS MTN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 9409 3452 9371 3434 9402 3435 9408
3435 9424 3423 9424 3422 9425 3429 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 213DEG 50KT 3434 9424

$$
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
635. pottery
11:30 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting wxmod:
This is a satellite MODIS photo of Beijing today. Looks like another planet.


Looks like they screwed up the weather mods....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24460
634. PedleyCA
11:29 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Tell Her No
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5955
633. stormchaser19
11:29 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting nymore:
Neither do I. I live in the USA. Nothing is free somebody has to pay


seeing it from that point you are right..
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
632. wxmod
11:28 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
This is a satellite MODIS photo of Beijing today. Looks like another planet.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1765
631. Bluestorm5
11:27 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
WT 0003
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : <05%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 65
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO



And we got severe thunderstorm warning already.




Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8032
630. Doppler22
11:27 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow.Bring it on!.No more sissy temps!.

Bring on the snow too!
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3782
629. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:24 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
WT 0003
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : <05%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 65
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
628. PalmBeachWeather
11:24 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
And if she should tell you "come closer
And if she tempts you with her charms...
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5897
627. Birthmark
11:23 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Peyton Manning has the largest forehead I have ever seen on a human being.

I understand that Peyton was voted "most likely to own an interocitor" by his colleagues.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
626. nymore
11:23 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting stormchaser19:


I don't live in EEUU.
Neither do I. I live in the USA. Nothing is free somebody has to pay
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
625. ScottLincoln
11:22 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting AGWcreationists:
I guess you missed where I commented about a dude from the League of Conservation Voters saying Sandy was proof of climate change

Is he a climate scientist? Did he provide evidence to counter the fairly widely-held view by scientists that no one event can be directly-attributed to climate change?
Quoting AGWcreationists:

And one of the leading AGW proponents on this forum tried to insinuate that Sandy, coupled with the other weather disasters this year, is indicative of climate change.

Ah, so there's the distinction. Sandy... coupled with all of the other weather disasters this year. So instead of just talking about one event (which again is almost impossible to tie to climate change as a cause), we are talking about numerous events. Over an entire year.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3216
624. washingtonian115
11:22 PM GMT on January 12, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've noticed the models are gradually backing off with the airmass modifying before it reaches the East Coast, and instead show it maintaining intensity.

Also...

It continues to send systems into the area after the initial one. Just as strong at that.

End of the 18z GFS:

Wow.Bring it on!.No more sissy temps!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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