Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2013

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It was another year of incredible weather extremes globally during 2012. The year featured two of the most expensive weather disasters in world history--Hurricane Sandy and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012, which will both cost more than $50 billion. Thankfully, no disasters had a death toll in excess of 2,000, though the 1,901 people dead or missing due to Super Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines may rank as that nation's 2nd deadliest typhoon ever. Twenty-six weather disasters costing at least $1 billion occurred globally, according to insurance broker AON Benfield. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters in 2011. Nine billion-dollar weather disasters hit China, their highest total in a decade of record-keeping. I present for you, now, the top ten global weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact:



1) New Record Minimum for Arctic Sea Ice (September 16)
Sea ice extent in the Arctic fell to 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that 2012's Arctic weather was much cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during 2012s minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean." Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The fall air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is that is causes increased melting in Greenland, contributing to sea level rise.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day near the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. It won't be many years before Santa's workshop needs pontoons in the summer to stay afloat.

2) Agricultural Drought in the U.S., Europe, and Asia (Summer)
Drought is civilization's great enemy, and the most dangerous threat from global warming. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. In a harbinger of things to come, severe droughts affected important agricultural regions across the globe during summer 2012, including eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. Wheat, corn, and soybean crops were among those heavily impacted; global food prices rose by 10 percent during July. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August, and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is going to be one of the top-five most expensive weather disasters in world history.


Figure 2. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.

3) Superstorm Sandy (October 29)
Hurricane Sandy was the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. Ten hours before landfall, at 9:30 am EDT October 29, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to more than five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the U.S. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall in excess of 12 inches to the mid-Atlantic, and blizzard conditions to the central and southern Appalachians. Sandy's late-season show of unprecedented strength, unusual track, and exceptionally damaging storm surge were made more likely due to climate change, and the storm helped bring more awareness and debate about the threat of climate change to the U.S. than any event since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Figure 3. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

4) Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Glacier Calving (July)
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the Greenland ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. But during four consecutive days July 11 - 14, temperatures rose above freezing at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle. Melting of the ice sheet dramatically accelerated, and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. This was the greatest melt since 1889, according to ice core records. On July 16, an iceberg twice the size of Manhattan calved from the Petermann Glacier in Northeast Greenland. This was the second huge ice island to calve from the glacier since 2010. The glacier's margins have now retreated to the farthest point in the last 150 years. The record melt in Greenland caused the highest loss of ice mass observed in the satellite era, and melting from Greenland is now thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total.


Figure 4. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

5) Super Typhoon Bopha (December 3 - 4)
The deadliest weather disaster of 2012 was Super Typhoon Bopha. Bopha was the strongest typhoon ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead or missing, mostly on the island of Mindanao. If the missing people are presumed dead, this total would make Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.04 billion, Bopha is the most costly typhoon ever to hit the Philippines. The previous record was the $600 million price tag of 2009's Typhoon Parma.


Figure 5. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

6) Northern Hemisphere Warmth (throughout 2012)
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere reached record warm monthly values for four consecutive months (April - July). Much of the unusual warmth occurred in North America; Canada was 3rd warmest on record for the period January- September, and the United States had its warmest year on record. Many European countries and Russia had record to near-record warm summer temperatures in 2012.


Figure 6. This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River on June 28, 2012, as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in Carpentersville, IL imag credit: wunderphotographer pjpix.

7) Eurasian Continent Cold Wave (January 24 - February 17)
Europe's worst cold snap in at least 26 years hit central and eastern Europe hard during a 3-week period in late January and the first half of February. The 824 deaths being blamed on the cold wave made it 2012's second deadliest weather disaster. Parts of the Danube River froze over for the first time in 25 years, and Northeast China through eastern Inner Mongolia recorded extremely cold minimum temperatures ranging between -30°C to -40°C.


Figure 7. Snow falls in Trogir, Croatia on February 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer antoniomise.

8) China Floods (July 21 - 22)
Torrential downpours on July 21 - 22 affected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, with several stations recording their highest daily precipitation on record. Mentougou recorded an impressive 305.2 mm (12 inches) of precipitation in one day. The floods killed 129 people and did $4.8 billion in damage, one of a record nine billion-dollar weather disasters to affect China in 2012.


Figure 8. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says these were the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

9) Pakistan Floods (August 21 - September 30)
Torrential monsoon rains caused deadly floods in Pakistan, with Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces the hardest hit. Over 5 million people and over 400,000 hectares of crops were affected by the floods, with more than 460,000 houses and infrastructures damaged or destroyed. The death toll of 455 made it Earth's 3rd deadliest weather-related disaster of 2012.


Figure 9. A driver makes his way on a street flooded from heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

10) African Floods (July - October)
Heavy rains in Nigeria killed at least 431, making it Earth's 4th deadliest weather disaster of 2012. Over 3 million people were affected by flooding across 15 countries in Africa, most notably Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The floods destroyed farmlands, homes, and schools, and caused outbreaks of cholera and other diseases.

Other Top Ten Weather Lists of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Interesting.

sort of off topic, but I couldn't count the number of times I will learn of a breaking story reading Aussie news websites, sometimes even state-side events. I suspect that each country discourages reporting of certain items and the rest it doesn't care about. Slants are oftimes different too.

I guess free speech means differently in different countries.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Beijing choked by dangerous pollution levels



Beijing residents are being warned to stay indoors as pollution hit hazardous levels for a second day, blanketing the city in a dense shroud of smog.

The municipal environment warning centre issued an alert advising the elderly, children, and those suffering respiratory or cardiovascular illness to avoid going out or doing strenuous exercise, state news agency Xinhua reported.

Those who did venture out wore facemasks for protection, with visibility low, the skyline shrouded, and the sun hidden in the smog.

Air quality in Beijing showed airborne particles with a diameter small enough to deeply penetrate the lungs at a reading of 456 micrograms per cubic metre, the warning centre said.

Air quality is considered good when the figure stands at less than 100.

But a reading shown on the United States embassy website in Beijing was above 800.

Beijing only measures up to a maximum value of 500, but the US embassy tweeted that their own readings were "beyond index".



Last year, Beijing said it was illegal for foreign embassies to issue their own air quality readings, but the US said its diplomatic missions in China would not stop tweeting levels, as they are useful to US nationals living abroad.

Heavy pollution is expected to last another three days, with weather conditions preventing pollutants from dispersing, the warning centre said according to Xinhua.

Fog covering vast swathes of eastern and central China also closed numerous highways and delayed flights in several provinces, it added.

China's air quality is among the worst in the world, international organisations say, citing massive coal consumption and car-choked city streets.

Microscopic pollutant particles in the air have killed some 8,600 people prematurely in 2012 and cost $1 billion in economic losses in four Chinese cities, according to a study by Beijing University and Greenpeace.

The study of pollutant levels in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Xi'an called for levels of PM2.5 - particles smaller than 2.5 micrometres in diameter - to be cut to World Health Organisation guidelines, a move which would reduce deaths by over 80 per cent, the China Daily newspaper reported.

AFP/Reuters


Interesting.

sort of off topic, but I couldn't count the number of times I will learn of a breaking story reading Aussie news websites, sometimes even state-side events. I suspect that each country discourages reporting of certain items and the rest it doesn't care about. Slants are oftimes different too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
722. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #29
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY THREE (05U)
11:34 AM WST January 13 2013
=========================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (960 hPa) located at 21.6S 110.9E or 335 km west of Exmouth and 460 km northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue to move toward the south southwest.

If the cyclone moves on a track which brings it closer to the coast then a period of gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour may develop in coastal areas between Exmouth and Cape Cuvier during Sunday and may extend south to Carnarvon and Denham late Sunday or early Monday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast and down the west coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Denham
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
721. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6 (FINAL)
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER BISING
11:00 AM PhST January 13 2013
==============================

Tropical Depression "BISING" has now weakened into a Low Pressure Area

At 10:00 AM PhST, Low Pressure Area, Former Bising located at 18.5N 130.5E or 820 km east of Aparri, Cagayan.

Additional Information
=======================
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of central Luzon due to Northeast Monsoon.

With this development and unless re-intensification occurs, this is the final bulletin on this weather disturbance.
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720. beell
Quoting Levi32:


I think it's less about the number of parameters and more about how the parameters are used and represented.

For me sometimes it's about very simple things. For example, I often wish to see how the low-level circulation of a tropical disturbance aligns with the upper-level winds. Unless there is a site I don't know about, I have always had to pull up two plots, one of upper-level winds and one of low-level vorticity, and flip between them on my browser to compare. That is hardly a crisp way of comparing two variables that go together in a forecast so often. So, I went and created a product that displays the two variables together. I know that this one simple change is going to help me a lot, and I hope it, and products like it, help some others too.


NCEP MAG has 850vort/500mb hts/200mb winds, but it ain't as pretty as yours-which I like much better!
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719. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting wxmod:


WHO is pretty conservative here. PM2.5 is just being recognized for it's contribution to premature death. At the latest China rates, every time someone breathes a cubic metre of air, they get over 700 micrograms of foreign material into their bloodstream. Pretty soon their blood resembles paste. On top of that, there are air toxics that are not particulates that effect every single cell in their bodies. Maybe they are breathing something like a hormone, like dioxin.


Yeah, that's a little old..2007 numbers. None the less it hasn't gone by unnoticed.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Quoting Astrometeor:
In response to the Beijing Air Pollution talk, 700,000 Chinese die every year from pollution.


Beijing choked by dangerous pollution levels



Beijing residents are being warned to stay indoors as pollution hit hazardous levels for a second day, blanketing the city in a dense shroud of smog.

The municipal environment warning centre issued an alert advising the elderly, children, and those suffering respiratory or cardiovascular illness to avoid going out or doing strenuous exercise, state news agency Xinhua reported.

Those who did venture out wore facemasks for protection, with visibility low, the skyline shrouded, and the sun hidden in the smog.

Air quality in Beijing showed airborne particles with a diameter small enough to deeply penetrate the lungs at a reading of 456 micrograms per cubic metre, the warning centre said.

Air quality is considered good when the figure stands at less than 100.

But a reading shown on the United States embassy website in Beijing was above 800.

Beijing only measures up to a maximum value of 500, but the US embassy tweeted that their own readings were "beyond index".



Last year, Beijing said it was illegal for foreign embassies to issue their own air quality readings, but the US said its diplomatic missions in China would not stop tweeting levels, as they are useful to US nationals living abroad.

Heavy pollution is expected to last another three days, with weather conditions preventing pollutants from dispersing, the warning centre said according to Xinhua.

Fog covering vast swathes of eastern and central China also closed numerous highways and delayed flights in several provinces, it added.

China's air quality is among the worst in the world, international organisations say, citing massive coal consumption and car-choked city streets.

Microscopic pollutant particles in the air have killed some 8,600 people prematurely in 2012 and cost $1 billion in economic losses in four Chinese cities, according to a study by Beijing University and Greenpeace.

The study of pollutant levels in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Xi'an called for levels of PM2.5 - particles smaller than 2.5 micrometres in diameter - to be cut to World Health Organisation guidelines, a move which would reduce deaths by over 80 per cent, the China Daily newspaper reported.

AFP/Reuters
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49.6C - Australia's highest temperature in 15 years

Yesterday Moomba in the far northeast of South Australia recorded a maximum temperature of 49.6 degrees, which makes it the highest temperature recorded in Australia in 15 years.

The last time a higher temperature was recorded was in February 1998, in the Western Australian Pilbara, where Nyang reached 49.8 degrees.

Moomba's 49.6 degrees is also the highest temperature recorded in SA since Oodnadatta reached 50.3 degrees in January 1960.

Australia's record is held by Oodnadatta, 50.7 degrees, also in January 1960.

Yesterday a wide area surrounding Moomba was also very hot, reaching the high 40s. In far western Queensland Birdsville got to 48.6 degrees, its hottest day in 22 years. This is also Queensland's highest temperature in 22 years, since it reached 48.8 at Birdsville in December 1990. In northwestern New South Wales yesterday Bourke reached 48 degrees, its hottest day since 1939, which was also a year of a heatwave. Bourke's 48.3 degrees is the highest recorded temperature in NSW since Ivanhoe had a 48.5-degree day in February 2004.

Since this current heatwave began at about New Year, the location which has the hottest week has been Oodnadatta in SA. Oodnadatta averaged a maximum of 46.5 degrees from January 2nd to January 8th.

Today the highest temperatures will be in far northeastern SA, southwest Queensland and northwestern NSW. Moomba, Birdsville, Thargomindah and Bourke should reach 48 or 49 degrees.

A cooler change will then move through, making Monday and Tuesday noticeably cooler, about 10 degrees cooler. On Monday Bourke should only reach 35 degrees, Moomba 37. On Tuesday Birdsville should only get to 41.

Heat will build again during the week, peaking late in the week or next weekend, but it is unlikely to get as hot as this weekend. Cloud from tropical cyclones and lows off WA will reduce the amount of heating over central Australia.


© Weatherzone 2013
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716. wxmod
Quoting Skyepony:

& it does...

China, the world's fastest growing economy, has earned another startling superlative: the highest annual incidence of premature deaths triggered by air pollution in the world, according to a new study.

A World Health Organization (WHO) report estimates that diseases triggered by indoor and outdoor air pollution kill 656,000 Chinese citizens each year, and polluted drinking water kills another 95,600. (Related: "China's Pollution Leaving Mountains High and Dry, Study Finds" [March 8, 2007].)

"Air pollution is estimated to cause approximately two million premature deaths worldwide per year," said Michal Krzyzanowski, an air quality adviser at the WHO Regional Office for Europe.
More here..



WHO is pretty conservative here. PM2.5 is just being recognized for it's contribution to premature death. At the latest China rates, every time someone breathes a cubic metre of air, they get over 700 micrograms of foreign material into their bloodstream. Pretty soon their blood resembles paste. On top of that, there are air toxics that are not particulates that effect every single cell in their bodies. Maybe they are breathing something like a hormone, like dioxin.
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In response to the Beijing Air Pollution talk, 700,000 Chinese die every year from pollution.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10226
New York Times:

Heat, Flood or Icy Cold, Extreme Weather Rages Worldwide

Link

: "... Each year we have extreme weather, but it’s unusual to have so many extreme events around the world at once,” said Omar Baddour, chief of the data management applications division at the World Meteorological Organization, in Geneva. “The heat wave in Australia; the flooding in the U.K., and most recently the flooding and extensive snowstorm in the Middle East — it’s already a big year in terms of extreme weather calamity.”

Such events are increasing in intensity as well as frequency, Mr. Baddour said, a sign that climate change is not just about rising temperatures, but also about intense, unpleasant, anomalous weather of all kinds. ..."
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713. wxmod
Quoting PlazaRed:

You wont have to tell the world if millions of people die from breathing related afflictions.
The world will notice it!


How much do you hear about that in the USA?
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Cyclone Narelle is maintaining a beautiful structure, although it has weakened quite a bit and continues to do so:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7735
711. wxmod
Quoting Bielle:
\\

True, but word tends to get out. People here have families there; consultants and business people travel back and forth; Hong Kong gets word and passes it along.


I suppose. However, there are an extreme lack of photos of the China pollution event available online.
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710. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
12:00 PM FST January 13 2013
=======================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HA'APAI AND VAVA'U GROUP, NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU GROUP FOR TONGA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 15.0S 178.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared and visible and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has slightly improved in past 24 hours. Deep convection persistent in past 12 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap on LOG 10 spiral giving DT=2.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.6S 178.3W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 16.6S 177.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 18.7S 175.3W - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
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TD 9S is looking good, building a nice core.



Also a nice rain core too.

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Andrea's (maybe) genesis is beginning


Where, I don't see it.
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XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
36.65N/44.65W
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From the Atlantic magazine...

Perhaps in recognition of the need of a new paradigm, "resilience" has quietly become a buzzword. The ever provocative Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his recent book Antifragile argues that only organizations capable of meeting crises can survive crises. In the wake of Hurricane Sandy, counties and cities in the Northeast have been contemplating how best to prepare for future weather shocks. That has led to renewed appreciation for cities, such as Rotterdam, that have long undertaken environmental planning organized around the notion that floods will happen no matter what humans do. The challenge isn't to find a way to prevent floods; it's to find a way to live with them.

The two approaches could not be more distinct: One warns of catastrophe and attempts to steer away from it. One pragmatically accepts that some undesirable things will happen no matter what. Rotterdam has thus focused both on preventing as much flooding as possible (floodgates) and on urban infrastructure that is as flood-resistant as possible: power grids that have dispersed nodes, waterproof insulation, even floating parts of the city in case of truly severe inundation.

Far from signaling a resignation to climate change, resilience, adaption and mitigation all shift energy away from holding back the tide and toward innovation and creativity in meeting it. In fact, those are precisely what have fueled whatever positive development there has been in human history (and admittedly, some negative as well). The theoretical physicist David Deutsch points out that pessimism about future trends is actually more "blindly optimistic" than genuine optimism because it assumes that we can know the future.

But as has been all too evident recently, we cannot. Instead, the only source of progress has been the ability of humans to learn and adapt. While climate change could spell death and harm to low-lying areas around the world as the seas rise, life 30,000 years ago was hardly hospitable. Yet people managed to create viable living conditions anyway. Necessity demanded it, and our ability to create and innovate made it possible.

...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:Andrea's (maybe) genesis is beginning

Looks like.
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New York Times:

On Scale of 0 to 500, Beijing’s Air Quality Tops ‘Crazy Bad’ at 755


Link
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


The one in Onslow was similar but that is from 2007.


Thanks, copied the old one...

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Quoting Levi32:
So, I went and created a product that displays the two variables together. I know that this one simple change is going to help me a lot, and I hope it, and products like it, help some others too.

Very nice, Levi. And useful, too, since that is one of the few things that can be looked at quickly to tell what's going on with a tropical system.
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The SPC is busting badly with the upgrade to 10% tornado probs. I kind of get where they were coming from as the overall environment seemed favorable, but this is a situation where you have to look more at current trends since the event was already unfolding as they issued their 0100z outlook. Looks more like an area of rain and embedded thunder with some strong wind gusts than tornado producing storms. There's one cell in NE AR that has shown occasional rotation though, so we'll have to keep an eye on that one.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7735
Quoting sunlinepr:
Giant ‘red wave’ dust storm pounds Australia
Posted on January 12, 2013 by The Extinction Protocol
January 12, 2013 – AUSTRALIA - ‘Eerie and amazing’ images of a dust storm in Western Australia have been posted online. As southern Australia ‘sizzles’ in an extreme heat-wave, the ‘meteorological phenomenon’ rolled over Western Australia. Buzzfeed posted incredible images of a ‘meteorological phenomenon’ which showed a huge dust storm off the coast of Western Australia. As it moved over the water it looked like a tangible substance, dense and unyielding. The photos were taken by various Australians and are posted on Facebook at Perth Weather Live. The images have received media attention and various comments. Most of the photos were uploaded from mobile or cell phones. In one photo, the Macedon Gas project site looks like the aftermath of a disaster. One comment on this image read, ‘makes nice picture but not good for the air con.’ The dust storm off the coast of Onslow, Western Australia, is predicted to be followed by tropical cyclone Narelle, according to the Australian. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said the dust storm was not directly linked to Tropical Cyclone Narelle. Narelle is currently hundreds of kilometers off shore. The dust storm met with strong winds and rain as it passed over Onslow, resulting in it ‘dumping sand and dust’ it had picked up. Winds with a speed of 102kph were recorded. Category-three cyclone Narelle continues to track its way to Australia and wind speeds at its centre are estimated to be 250km/h. Western Australia is known for its gas production and precautionary measures are being taken. Flights are on stand-by to evacuate workers, if necessary. –Digital Journal



The one in Onslow was similar but that is from 2007.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I honestly don't think it's worth it to use anything other than the standard ECMWF products. You don't need to assess literally every meteorological variable in order to furnish a viable forecast.


I think it's less about the number of parameters and more about how the parameters are used and represented.

For me sometimes it's about very simple things. For example, I often wish to see how the low-level circulation of a tropical disturbance aligns with the upper-level winds. Unless there is a site I don't know about, I have always had to pull up two plots, one of upper-level winds and one of low-level vorticity, and flip between them on my browser to compare. That is hardly a crisp way of comparing two variables that go together in a forecast so often. So, I went and created a product that displays the two variables together. I know that this one simple change is going to help me a lot, and I hope it, and products like it, help some others too.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


Yeah I saw that interesting loop myself, it seems as if a more concentrated spin rotating around around the big daddy spin in the far open Atlantic, it's wrapping into what appears to be a subtropical system of sorts but I highly doubt it can keep that up. However we've seen some wild, uncanny stuff in recent years in terms of cyclone genesis, so it's not impossible.
This is an interesting display though, even though it's probably not going to amount to anything.


Perhaps the extratropical lows of the past were actually subtropical cyclones, especially prior to the satellite era. Maybe it's not as unprecedented as we think.
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Speaking of tropical cyclones I wouldn't be surprised to see a East coast threat again this year.I still don't believe we'll see "Andrea" though.Ha ha.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16782
Giant ‘red wave’ dust storm pounds Australia
Posted on January 12, 2013 by The Extinction Protocol
January 12, 2013 – AUSTRALIA - ‘Eerie and amazing’ images of a dust storm in Western Australia have been posted online. As southern Australia ‘sizzles’ in an extreme heat-wave, the ‘meteorological phenomenon’ rolled over Western Australia. Buzzfeed posted incredible images of a ‘meteorological phenomenon’ which showed a huge dust storm off the coast of Western Australia. As it moved over the water it looked like a tangible substance, dense and unyielding. The photos were taken by various Australians and are posted on Facebook at Perth Weather Live. The images have received media attention and various comments. Most of the photos were uploaded from mobile or cell phones. In one photo, the Macedon Gas project site looks like the aftermath of a disaster. One comment on this image read, ‘makes nice picture but not good for the air con.’ The dust storm off the coast of Onslow, Western Australia, is predicted to be followed by tropical cyclone Narelle, according to the Australian. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said the dust storm was not directly linked to Tropical Cyclone Narelle. Narelle is currently hundreds of kilometers off shore. The dust storm met with strong winds and rain as it passed over Onslow, resulting in it ‘dumping sand and dust’ it had picked up. Winds with a speed of 102kph were recorded. Category-three cyclone Narelle continues to track its way to Australia and wind speeds at its centre are estimated to be 250km/h. Western Australia is known for its gas production and precautionary measures are being taken. Flights are on stand-by to evacuate workers, if necessary. –Digital Journal

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Ravens 38 - Broncos 35 - FINAL
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Andrea's (maybe) genesis is beginning



Yeah I saw that interesting loop myself, it seems as if a more concentrated spin rotating around around the big daddy spin in the far open Atlantic, it's wrapping into what appears to be a subtropical system of sorts but I highly doubt it can keep that up. However we've seen some wild, uncanny stuff in recent years in terms of cyclone genesis, so it's not impossible.
This is an interesting display though, even though it's probably not going to amount to anything.
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I honestly don't think it's worth it to use anything other than the standard ECMWF products. You don't need to assess literally every meteorological variable in order to furnish a viable forecast.
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Langley storm is going toward Norman, AR. This cell got decent rotation on it.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7981
SPC upped to 10% tornado probability.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
687. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #28
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY THREE (05U)
8:36 AM WST January 13 2013
=========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (960 hPa) located at 21.2S 111.0E or 335 km west northwest of Exmouth and 490 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue to move toward the south southwest and will pass west of the Northwest Cape during Sunday.

If the cyclone moves on a track which brings it closer to the coast then galeswith gusts to 100 kilometers per hour may develop in coastal areas between Exmouth and Cape Cuvier during Sunday and may extend south to Carnarvon and Denham late Sunday or early Monday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast and down the west coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Denham.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.8S 110.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 25.0S 109.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 29.9S 109.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 35.0S 114.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has continued to show a weakening trend during the early hours of Sunday morning with the effects of cooler ocean temperatures evident. North easterly shear has reduced to around 10 knots at 1800 UTC. Shear is expected to remain low tomoderate before westerly shear increases on Monday.

Dvorak DT estimates have fallen to 4.0 with the CI held at 4.5. ADT, AMSU and SATCON are in agreement and final intensity estimate is 75 knots [10-min mean].

Weakening is expected to continue due to cooler Sea surface temperatures, and accelerate on Monday as the system is affected by westerly shear. Narelle is likely to remain a cyclone until Tuesday when it should weaken below cyclone strength well off the west coast.

Expected motion is generally to the south southwest on Sunday and Monday. The greatest risk period for gales on the coast is during Sunday in the Exmouth-Ningaloo area. There is still sufficient uncertainty on how far off the coast Narelle will be on Monday to maintain a precautionary watch for west coastal areas south to Denham.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast on Sunday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast likely to push tides above the highest astronomical tide at least towards Shark Bay.

Although widespread heavy rain is not expected in the west Pilbara, upslide to the southeast of the cyclone may bring some rain to the Gascoyne and southern parts of the state from Sunday to Tuesday.
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Link
When I will have another opportunity like this???
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Strong rotation.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Ain't gonna happen. He's all in.


And that's symptomatic of this "debate" - AGW skeptics are expected to debate with one hand tied behind our backs.

If AGW proponents point to current events, that's OK. If AGW skeptics point to similar historical events, that's not being rigorous.

AGW proponents point to the lack of peer-reviewed skeptical articles even as Climategate showed a coordinated effort to deny peer review to skeptical articles.

The hockey stick graph can pretend the Medieval Warm Period didn't exist even though clear historical records indicate otherwise.

And groups such as the League of Conservation Voters can call for lower carbon emissions - and also oppose shale gas fracking, which has led to concrete reductions in United States carbon emissions - and they are given a pass.

It really has to raise the question, is this all really about carbon? Or something else?

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The storm to SW of Mount Ida is looking threatening... folks there need to take shelter. Here's the base velocity radar image.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7981
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Adrian. I know is very early as there are 139 days left until June 1rst but what is your early view on how the season may look like in terms of numbers?

Link


well way early to make any calls but the european seems to be suggesting higher then normal pressures across the atlantic i.e" (strong bermuda ridge) which could translate a hostile environment. Plenty of time to watch. Euro products

Will the United States break its incredible no-major-hurricane streak? Time will tell
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


That's a kind of signature one would be accustomed to seeing in late March or early April for that region, not the middle of January!

Looks ominous. Hope Folks are heeding the official warnings from the NWS Paducah, KY office.



Must be due to the impending ice age!

(sorry, but just couldn't resist~ )
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
679. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 06-20122013
4:00 AM RET January 13 2013
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 11.8S 80.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle locally reaching gale force winds and very rough seas within a 20 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.8S 80.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 12.1S 79.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 13.0S 79.1E- 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.4S 78.9E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Since 2130z, a 0.60-0.70 curved band has consolidated on METEOSAT7 enhanced infrared imagery. Nevertheless 1809z ASCAT swath suggests weaker winds than aforementioned mean Dvorak analysis (2.5+). System is therefore maintained at tropical depression stage at 0000z. Gale force winds likely exists locally near the center in the southern semi-circle.

The easterly ongoing constraint is expected to weaken clearly today and the upper level environment becomes more favorable for intensification, mainly on Monday as a second outflow channel is expected to build.

Intensity forecast keeps on being however rather tricky in relationship with the small forecast size of the system and with the uncertainty about the influence of the oceanic cooling generated by the system itself as it tracks slowly. Present intensity forecast is therefore slightly weaker than the previous one.

The system is forecast to track under the steering influence of antagonist combined steering flows. It is expected to track westwards at short range undergoing the steering influence of the low level subtropical ridge, but slowed down by the combined steering influence of the equatorial ridge. Then system is then expected to track southwestwards on Monday under the steering influence of a mid-level low in the south and a building Mid-level ridge in the east. On Wednesday, the system is expected to track westwards as the mid-level subtropical ridge rebuilt in the south, but always with slow motion due to the persistent equatorial mid-level ridge.
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I can see couple of rotations on this radar image.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7981
If we get any right-moving supercells, there is a possibility of one or two of them producing a strong/significant tornado.

THE 00Z LZK SOUNDING IS IMPRESSIVE AND INDICATES MORE INSTABILITY
THAN RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE. EVEN
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASING THE MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING
THE SURFACE DEWPOINT TO 65 F STILL YIELDS AROUND 1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...AT LEAST QUADRUPLE WHAT THE RAP MODEL WOULD INDICATE. SHEAR
PROFILES REMAIN VERY STRONG...WITH PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. EFFECTIVE SRH IS OVER 500 M2/S2.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
Quoting Levi32:


True enough, but of course, I want to do more, which is why I started plotting model output in the first place, which is why it would be nice to have my own ECMWF data.

I've only got mostly standard stuff for now, but that will change.


Sure thing man count me in. I used to use ryan's ecm all day everyday until they started charging a million dollars for a month.
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675. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting PlazaRed:

You wont have to tell the world if millions of people die from breathing related afflictions.
The world will notice it!

& it does...

China, the world's fastest growing economy, has earned another startling superlative: the highest annual incidence of premature deaths triggered by air pollution in the world, according to a new study.

A World Health Organization (WHO) report estimates that diseases triggered by indoor and outdoor air pollution kill 656,000 Chinese citizens each year, and polluted drinking water kills another 95,600. (Related: "China's Pollution Leaving Mountains High and Dry, Study Finds" [March 8, 2007].)

"Air pollution is estimated to cause approximately two million premature deaths worldwide per year," said Michal Krzyzanowski, an air quality adviser at the WHO Regional Office for Europe.
More here..

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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