A record 199 days without a tornado death; 1st tornado of 2013 hits Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:10 PM GMT on January 10, 2013

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The U.S. has set a weather record of the sort we like to see: the longest continuous stretch without a tornado death. We've had 199 days without a tornado fatality, beating the record of 197 straight days that ended on February 28, 1987. The last U.S. tornado death was at Venus in Highlands County, Florida, from an EF-0 tornado associated with Tropical Storm Debby on June 24, 2012. After a horrific 2011 that saw 553 Americans die in tornadoes--the 2nd highest total since 1950--the 2012 tornado season was not far from average for deaths, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The 2012 tornado death toll was 68, ranking 25th highest since 1950. The average yearly toll between 1950 - 2011 was 91. According to SPC, the total number of tornadoes during 2012 was just 936. This is the first time since 2002 that fewer than 1000 tornadoes have been recorded. The reason for the low tornado total in 2012 was the massive drought that gripped much of Tornado Alley. It's tough to get tornadoes when you're experiencing near-record drought conditions and very few thunderstorms.


Figure 1. June 24, 2012: A tornado spawned by Tropical Storm Debbie crosses Lake Winterset in Winter Haven, Florida. Another tornado from Debbie on this day caused the last tornado death in the U.S., at Venus in Highlands County, Florida. Image credit: wunderphotographer whgator3.


Figure 2. The total number of U.S. tornadoes stronger than EF-0 from 1950 - 2012 does not show a significant long-term trend. However, this database is not very reliable, and we cannot use it to make judgements about how tornadoes may be changing in the long term. Data taken from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Since not all tornadoes from 2012 have been given an EF scale rating yet, the numbers from 2012 are estimated by assuming that the same proportion of EF-0 tornadoes that existed in 2011 also occurred in 2012.

First U.S. tornado of 2013 hits Louisiana
A powerful low pressure system centered over Texas that has dumped over 5" of rain over Southeast Texas and 10" over portions of Louisiana has generated the first U.S. tornado of 2013. The tornado touched down in Plaquemine, Louisiana at 8:35 am CST this morning, when a squall line of severe thunderstorms moved through. Light to moderate roof damage was reported at an industrial plant on Highway 405, about 80 miles west-northwest of New Orleans. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has portions of Southeast Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, and Southern Alabama in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather and tornadoes, so hopefully our record streak without a tornado death will not come to an end today.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation from the past three days from the Lake Charles radar. Over 10" of rain (dark pink colors) is estimated to have fallen over South Central Louisiana.

Earth's extreme weather: no big deal, compared to Venus
Our colleagues at TWC are airing a new series that starts tonight (Thursday) at 9pm EST/8pm CST, called "Deadliest Space Weather." We've put the trailer for tonight's episode on Venus up on the wunderground video section. As I highlighted in my book review of Dr. James Hansen's must-read book, Storms of My Grandchildren, Dr. Hansen argues that Earth's climate may eventually wind up like Venus', with a run-away greenhouse effect: "After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty." In tonight's episode of "Deadliest Space Weather", astronomers and planetary scientists will reveal why the climate of Venus went so horribly wrong, why a similar climate may one day descend on the Earth--and what will happen when it gets here.

Jeff Masters

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166. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
5:47 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (947 hPa) located at 17.1S 113.9E or 535 km north of Exmouth and 505 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south southwest towards Northwest Cape.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Exmouth during this afternoon, then extend south to Coral Bay Saturday morning. Gales may extend south to Carnarvon during Sunday.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast, possibly becoming destructive with wind gusts over 130 kilometers per hour overnight Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometers per hour are possible near the cyclone center.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast during the day with isolated heavy rainfall and squalls possible. This activity will extend into the western and southern Gascoyne over the weekend. Heavy falls are likely near the west Pilbara coast and adjacent Gascoyne on Saturday and Sunday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight, and during Saturday with flooding of low lying coastal areas. A very dangerous storm tide is possible Saturday night if the center of the cyclone passes close to the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth


Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44854
165. VR46L
Quoting thunderbug91:

lol yeah but im in Tampa


Still it will reach part of Florida :) , Or do the peninsula not regard the Panhandle as part of Florida ?
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
P'cola's about to get the squall line..such as it is...
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Quoting VR46L:


Oh I think It will reach the Panhandle .

lol yeah but im in Tampa
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162. VR46L
Quoting thunderbug91:
i cant believe thats not going to reach florida...


Oh I think It will reach the Panhandle .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
Quoting DocNDswamp:


LOL, it would please me more if the stubborn, blocking linebacker, er... the deep-layered Caribbean-Antilles-Bahama ridge clearly depicted in the graphic Tom posted #106 would truly get shunted away and not reappear for next 2 months... allowing more cold air penetration into the Gulf South!

However, I might be in the minority opinion with this. Seems a lot of Floridians enjoy the warmth that big bloated ridge delivers!
;)


Clinging tightly to that bloated ridge here in Cape Coral, thank you very much! ;-) 'Hope the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama folks are staying safe today. My Mom's from New Orleans and that part of the country has a soft spot in my heart.
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Can we reach double digit Mesoscale Discussions from the SPC by tonight!!!!?!Pretty sure we will eventually today :p
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Feds say wind farms could work off Cape Fear coast
By Kate Elizabeth Queram
Kate.Queram@StarNewsOnline.com
Published: Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 9:33 p.m.
Last Modified: Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 9:33 p.m.

Parcels of water off the North Carolina coast could be leased for offshore wind farming as early as 2014, though construction may not begin for up to five years after that, officials said Wednesday.

"I think there will be offshore wind in North Carolina," Maureen Bornholdt, renewable energy program manager for the federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, told a packed conference room at the Courtyard Marriott. "It's a matter of, in what area? That will morph depending on the type of comments we get and the ongoing discussions."

Representatives from BOEM held the informational meeting at the Wilmington hotel to give area residents a chance to learn and ask questions about offshore wind farms.

The event, officials said, doesn't guarantee that wind development will definitely happen in Tar Heel State waters, but represents a more tangible sign of progress than the discussion that's hummed among environmental groups for years.

As of now, three sites off the coast have been identified as potential sites for wind development. One is in the Outer Banks and the other two – roughly 17 miles south of Bald Head Island and 11 miles southeast of Sunset Beach – flank Oak Island.

Because the continental shelf drops off relatively slowly from the shore here, North Carolina has an exceptionally large block of water less than 30 meters deep, making conditions ideal for wind turbine installations.

"We have the largest resource off the East Coast for wind," said Jen Banks, wind energy project coordinator for the state Solar Center at N.C. State University.
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Quoting bappit:
Beautiful day here just west of Houston. Felt like a spring day. The sun really is not bright enough by local standards, but after so many gloomy days the contrast makes it seem brighter than it is. Air is calm and the wet ground keeps it fairly humid. Like a still cool morning all day long. Strange, saw a monarch butterfly headed south today, too. Seen stragglers all through December. Nice to see water standing in fields and ditches. Glorious day.

Glad to hear that you guys recieved some much-needed rain. We wish we had it, but we also know that you guys out there need it more.
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Beautiful day here just west of Houston. Felt like a spring day. The sun really is not bright enough by local standards, but after so many gloomy days the contrast makes it seem brighter than it is. Air is calm and the wet ground keeps it fairly humid. Like a still cool morning all day long. Strange, saw a monarch butterfly headed south today, too. Seen stragglers all through December. Nice to see water standing in fields and ditches. Glorious day.
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Quoting VR46L:
Gulf activity Moving further East...

Funktop GFT

i cant believe thats not going to reach florida...
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Quoting DocNDswamp:


LOL, it would please me more if the stubborn, blocking linebacker, er... the deep-layered Caribbean-Antilles-Bahama ridge clearly depicted in the graphic Tom posted #106 would truly get shunted away and not reappear for next 2 months... allowing more cold air penetration into the Gulf South!

However, I might be in the minority opinion with this. Seems a lot of Floridians enjoy the warmth that big bloated ridge delivers!
;)

YES WE DO
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152. VR46L
Gulf activity Moving further East...

Funktop GFT

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842


Flamingos are seen in their snow-covered enclosure in Jerusalem's Biblical Zoo January 10, 2013. The worst snowstorm in 20 years shut public transport, roads and schools in Jerusalem on Thursday and along the northern Israeli region bordering on Lebanon.
REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
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Quoting Luisport:
please can you post the link? Thank's!


mercurynews.com
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Stephen Hawking and Carl Sagan on the Greenhouse Effect

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A man walks near palm trees as snow falls in Jerusalem's old city on January 10, 2013. Jerusalem was transformed into a winter wonderland after heavy overnight snowfall turned the Holy City and much of the region white, bringing hordes of excited children onto the streets. MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP/Getty Images
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Quoting Patrap:

Snow covers the Russian Church over the neighbourhood of Ein Kerem and the western outskirts of Jerusalem January 10, 2013.The worst snowstorm in 20 years shut public transport, roads and schools in Jerusalem on Thursday and along the northern Israeli region bordering on Lebanon. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
please can you post the link? Thank's!
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Quoting VR46L:
@ 122 &127 Thanks for posting them Maps .
Lots of blue on them ... They have been growing bluer all week. Which should please everyone ...


LOL, it would please me more if the stubborn, blocking linebacker, er... the deep-layered Caribbean-Antilles-Bahama ridge clearly depicted in the graphic Tom posted #106 would truly get shunted away and not reappear for next 2 months... allowing more cold air penetration into the Gulf South!

However, I might be in the minority opinion with this. Seems a lot of Floridians enjoy the warmth that big bloated ridge delivers!
;)
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Snow covers the Russian Church over the neighbourhood of Ein Kerem and the western outskirts of Jerusalem January 10, 2013.The worst snowstorm in 20 years shut public transport, roads and schools in Jerusalem on Thursday and along the northern Israeli region bordering on Lebanon. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF QUITMAN...
SOUTHERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MERIDIAN...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 351 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR QUITMAN
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STONEWALL BY 400 PM CST...
SABLE AND MIDDLETON BY 410 PM CST...
SAVOY BY 420 PM CST...
MEEHAN AND INCREASE BY 425 PM CST...
ZERO BY 430 PM CST...
NELLIEBURG BY 435 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8872 3202 8892 3251 8890 3232 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 197DEG 23KT 3209 8879

$$

GRG
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7637
The CME off the sun is not headed this way. But it is on the side of the sun spinning toward us.

P.S. don't lick the wailing wall! ewe maht gat stubuk.
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Snow falls as an ultra-orthodox Jewish man walks at the Western Wall in Jerusalem's Old City, Thursday, Jan. 10, 2013. Stormy weather conditions continued on Thursday with snow, torrential rains and strong winds across the region. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)
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Narelle may finally be forming an eye:



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7637
Quoting bjrabbit:
Global warming...yeah. Jerusalem got 8 inches of snow today. But nothing on this blog to contradict the religion of global warming, which, is centered where...Penn State, East Anglia?


How strange. I do not ever recall you pointing out heat wave and drought events that are becoming far more frequent than the snow and cold events. Also, is it not strange that we cannot look at a weather event and see the climate? ... They must be two separate things?
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Quoting Patrap:
Portlight Disaster Relief
Portlight & Bona Responds Ramp it Up in NY



www.portlight.org

We're excited to bring you an update on our activities in post-Sandy New York! Working with Jim Mahar and the good folks from Bona Responds, a ramp has been built for young Ryan in Breezy Point, who has cerebral palsy. His dad was having a tough time getting him out of the house, to and from school, after their lift was destroyed. Portlight helped with the lumber, and Bona Responds built the 55 linear feet of ramp. They're doing amazing work, in spite of freezing temperatures and short days. They even hang drywall in the dark!

Many thanks to the Robin Hood Foundation, the Disability Funders Network, the Kessler Foundation,
and as ALWAYS, to YOU, for your continued support!!

Ryan LOVES his new ramp!!

That smile says it all!







Working on the deck (Portlight)
Volunteer Greg Laughnan screws down deck boards for the ramp.
Thank you Pat... Your'e the best
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by the way, what is going on with rain in Gaza?
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31540
FYI...
NWS MOB is reporting access to Dual Pole January 14 now. 2 weeks earlier thought
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12z ECMWF has the Subtropical low in the Atlantic weaker, and more of a hybrid systems. If the next run fails to show anything significant, chances for development of the low will drop to virtually zero.
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Quoting MidMOwx:


If the 6-10 day doesn't materialize, there's always the 8-14 day.

Look at the warmth over Alaska, that might give us the indication of a pattern change.
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I love reading these discussions from my local mets. This one is from Brooks Garner, "Putting on the nerd hat: Looks like the polar vortex really could shift from China to Canada in the coming week, ultimately pushing colder air back our way. It's all about the Rossby waves... Whenever we see 5 troughs form across the Northern Hemisphere, the pattern is ready for a shake-up. ("3" is a more stable number, resulting in a more "set" weather pattern.)"
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131. VR46L
@ 122 &127 Thanks for posting them Maps .
Lots of blue on them ... They have been growing bluer all week. Which should please everyone ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
130. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting bjrabbit:
Global warming...yeah. Jerusalem got 8 inches of snow today. But nothing on this blog to contradict the religion of global warming, which, is centered where...Penn State, East Anglia?


Thats not unusual .. it snows every couple of years in Jerusalem ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31272
co2now.org


394.39ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for December 2012

Preliminary data dated January 3, 2013


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Global warming...yeah. Jerusalem got 8 inches of snow today. But nothing on this blog to contradict the religion of global warming, which, is centered where...Penn State, East Anglia?
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Quoting wxchaser97:

It is supposed to get near 60F on Saturday over here, definitely not feeling like winter. There is some hope after this system as the 6-10 day map does have us in the blue.


If the 6-10 day doesn't materialize, there's always the 8-14 day.

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NOLA radar with STORM TRACKS



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110
WFUS54 KJAN 102117
TORJAN
MSC067-102200-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0002.130110T2117Z-130110T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
317 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 400 PM CST

* AT 317 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OVETT
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TUCKERS CROSSING BY 325 PM CST...
MILL CREEK BY 345 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3143 8910 3150 8921 3151 8921 3183 8896
3182 8894 3144 8894 3143 8901
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 217DEG 25KT 3152 8906



GRG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Portlight Disaster Relief
Portlight & Bona Responds Ramp it Up in NY



www.portlight.org

We're excited to bring you an update on our activities in post-Sandy New York! Working with Jim Mahar and the good folks from Bona Responds, a ramp has been built for young Ryan in Breezy Point, who has cerebral palsy. His dad was having a tough time getting him out of the house, to and from school, after their lift was destroyed. Portlight helped with the lumber, and Bona Responds built the 55 linear feet of ramp. They're doing amazing work, in spite of freezing temperatures and short days. They even hang drywall in the dark!

Many thanks to the Robin Hood Foundation, the Disability Funders Network, the Kessler Foundation,
and as ALWAYS, to YOU, for your continued support!!

Ryan LOVES his new ramp!!

That smile says it all!







Working on the deck (Portlight)
Volunteer Greg Laughnan screws down deck boards for the ramp.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weather Underground‏@wunderground

Tornado Warning for Jones County in MS until 4:00 PM CST http://wxug.us/a39m
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Quoting Slamguitar:
I'm sick of nothing significant happening winter-wise in my area, so we might as well start the 2013 Atlantic season now. :)

It is supposed to get near 60F on Saturday over here, definitely not feeling like winter. There is some hope after this system as the 6-10 day map does have us in the blue.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting Quadrantid:
With regards to Venus as an endstate for the Earth's evolution - that's almost a certainty. That said, I strongly doubt anthropogenic climate change will push us that far - rather, we'll go down that route in several hundred million years time (possibly a billion), as a result of the Sun gradually becoming more and more luminous.

At some point, the average surface temperature of the Earth will get sufficiently high for the oceans and surface water to become unsustainable. I can't remember when that happens, off the top of my head, but I think it is predicted to occur at around 50 degrees centigrade (as a mean temperature for the planet). At that point, the oceans evaporate, and you gradually shed more and more of the Earth's water to space, as the atmospheric water is slowly dissociated by high energy Solar radiation and the hydrogen escapes.

The water in our atmosphere currently is almost entirely protected from that by the temperature inversion at the top of the troposphere, which keeps almost all the water trapped in the lowest level of the atmosphere, where it is relatively safe from the nasty high energy stuff. Put enough water in the atmosphere, though, and it'll start to bleed through the inversion (or the inversion will collapse).

Once the Earth is dry, plate tectonics will cease (since the Earth is of too low a mass to sustain wide-scale plate tectonics without the lubricating effect of water) - which will, in turn, stop the sequestration of carbon back into the mantle from the surface. Without that, the eruption of gasses from vulcanism will gradually add both a significant amount of greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere, and build the atmospheric pressure - leading to a Venutian-style runaway greenhouse...

I'm unashamedly one of those convinced that man is deleteriously affecting the Earth's climate - but as a Solar system astronomer, I can't see any way that man-made climate change could push the average temperature of the planet up by more than 30 degrees. At the very least, I figure that we'll either have figured out a way to curtail our emissions well before that point, or the hideously changed climate will have stopped us in its own way :)


I was thinking the same. Even if we used up all the oil resources possible, Venus' proximity to the Sun makes a big deal of difference, as well as chemical composition of her atmosphere too I reckon, which was likely always more toxic than earth, or at the very least, never mellowed as Earth has. In time as the Sun expands and swallows Mercury and then Venus, we would of course have the planet turn more Venusian. But the human race may be long extinct by that time anyway.
Now of course if something devestating happened to the atmosphere...that's a whole other ball game. Could fossil fuels and man-made chemicals damage it enough? Maybe, it survived through the past of heavier volcanic activity and big asteroid hits etc...but don't really want to try as it's certainly a possibility still!

Why does the forecast for Cyclone Narelle only show it going from a super strength to a tropical storm? Are they not sure of intensity as it skirts the coast? Be an interesting week for the west coast there. I know quite a few people there, as has been popular the last many years for Brits to go there, and the ones I know have mainly gone to the west coast. Cheaper to live maybe?

It's finally turning to winter here. Have possibility of snow this weekend...though hoping not til Sunday as no good driving home very late night on wintry roads. Great hardly any other traffic and thus, not dealing with awful drivers tho don't know how to drive on it...but less cars = more ice able to freeze on the road blah
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120. VR46L
Quoting Slamguitar:
I'm sick of nothing significant happening winter-wise in my area, so we might as well start the 2013 Atlantic season now. :)


According to some its about to start....

But we will see..
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
I'm sick of nothing significant happening winter-wise in my area, so we might as well start the 2013 Atlantic season now. :)
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Yo, Mobile Alabama.. Doesn't look quite that bad, but given your propensity for tornadoes in recent weeks, you might want to keep an eye on that squall line moving in from the SW off the Gulf toward you!
;)
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Quoting FunnelVortex:
ECMWF showing a healthy Andrea in the middle of next week.



Holy Early Hurricanes Batman... Already?
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Quoting ColdInFL:
It's there for everyone to see, you just need to be open to both sides of the research.

Link


Using that article to make that point is a little... off base. Combine the quote "It means after a baking hot September, we could be in for a repeat of last year's big freeze." and the publication date (October, 2011) and you'll see the forecast didn't quite verify. The UK didn't have the crazy anomalous warm winter the US did in 2011/12, but it was significantly warmer than average.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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