A record 199 days without a tornado death; 1st tornado of 2013 hits Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:10 PM GMT on January 10, 2013

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The U.S. has set a weather record of the sort we like to see: the longest continuous stretch without a tornado death. We've had 199 days without a tornado fatality, beating the record of 197 straight days that ended on February 28, 1987. The last U.S. tornado death was at Venus in Highlands County, Florida, from an EF-0 tornado associated with Tropical Storm Debby on June 24, 2012. After a horrific 2011 that saw 553 Americans die in tornadoes--the 2nd highest total since 1950--the 2012 tornado season was not far from average for deaths, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The 2012 tornado death toll was 68, ranking 25th highest since 1950. The average yearly toll between 1950 - 2011 was 91. According to SPC, the total number of tornadoes during 2012 was just 936. This is the first time since 2002 that fewer than 1000 tornadoes have been recorded. The reason for the low tornado total in 2012 was the massive drought that gripped much of Tornado Alley. It's tough to get tornadoes when you're experiencing near-record drought conditions and very few thunderstorms.


Figure 1. June 24, 2012: A tornado spawned by Tropical Storm Debbie crosses Lake Winterset in Winter Haven, Florida. Another tornado from Debbie on this day caused the last tornado death in the U.S., at Venus in Highlands County, Florida. Image credit: wunderphotographer whgator3.


Figure 2. The total number of U.S. tornadoes stronger than EF-0 from 1950 - 2012 does not show a significant long-term trend. However, this database is not very reliable, and we cannot use it to make judgements about how tornadoes may be changing in the long term. Data taken from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Since not all tornadoes from 2012 have been given an EF scale rating yet, the numbers from 2012 are estimated by assuming that the same proportion of EF-0 tornadoes that existed in 2011 also occurred in 2012.

First U.S. tornado of 2013 hits Louisiana
A powerful low pressure system centered over Texas that has dumped over 5" of rain over Southeast Texas and 10" over portions of Louisiana has generated the first U.S. tornado of 2013. The tornado touched down in Plaquemine, Louisiana at 8:35 am CST this morning, when a squall line of severe thunderstorms moved through. Light to moderate roof damage was reported at an industrial plant on Highway 405, about 80 miles west-northwest of New Orleans. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has portions of Southeast Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, and Southern Alabama in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather and tornadoes, so hopefully our record streak without a tornado death will not come to an end today.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation from the past three days from the Lake Charles radar. Over 10" of rain (dark pink colors) is estimated to have fallen over South Central Louisiana.

Earth's extreme weather: no big deal, compared to Venus
Our colleagues at TWC are airing a new series that starts tonight (Thursday) at 9pm EST/8pm CST, called "Deadliest Space Weather." We've put the trailer for tonight's episode on Venus up on the wunderground video section. As I highlighted in my book review of Dr. James Hansen's must-read book, Storms of My Grandchildren, Dr. Hansen argues that Earth's climate may eventually wind up like Venus', with a run-away greenhouse effect: "After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty." In tonight's episode of "Deadliest Space Weather", astronomers and planetary scientists will reveal why the climate of Venus went so horribly wrong, why a similar climate may one day descend on the Earth--and what will happen when it gets here.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SuperYooper:
Venus is a syndrome now?

Oh yeah, I forgot that Venus became the way it is because Venutians burned all their fossil fuels.

Silly me.
ya thats right silly you
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Quoting Neapolitan:
What Skeptical Science said is that a runaway greenhouse event is what got Venus into trouble, though such an event on Earth is unlikely for many years. Dr. Hansen said such an event could happen "eventually", and Dr. Masters clearly wrote that the TWC program says such an event "may one day descend on the Earth".

Apples and oranges? Off base?

Hardly.


I think the better argument would be -- all human life would be long, long extinguished before we ever approached the atmospheric Co2 level of Venus considering CO2 is acutely toxic to humans at concentrations of 7-10%. I would venture to guess we couldn't live over a prolonged period of time in an atmosphere with over 1% or possibly lower.
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Why am I not surprised!

Link
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Venus is a syndrome now?

Oh yeah, I forgot that Venus became the way it is because Venutians burned all their fossil fuels.

Silly me.
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Temperature Update, This is for tomorrow(Saturday).

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Photo's off the coast of Onslow in NW Western Australia. It was a mixture of sand and water.







Pictures: Jeff Miles
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


Tropics,

That cold front you said would arrive today must be arriving now. That's some wind happening out there right now!

Lindy


A weak boundary moved thru today and another one will arrive on Saturday. As I said yesterday,the strong winds we have been experiencing will slowly diminish starting on Friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST THU JAN 10 2013



.DISCUSSION...A NEARBY BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO REINFORCE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND WINDWARD LAND AREAS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE NEXT BOUNDARY BRINGS MORE SHOWERS
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE SET TO IMPROVE SUNDAY BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS AREAS
OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CARRIED IN
ON THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE VERY LARGE LOW THAT DOMINATES THE
ATLANTIC MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
This may have already been mentioned, but yet another Windy City (lack of) snowfall record was broken yesterday: Chicago reaches record 320 days without 1 inch of snow.


I mentioned that 2 days ago, Ginger Zee from GMA mentioned it in a tweet which I posted here.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
141 days left until June 1rst.

Link


Tropics,

That cold front you said would arrive today must be arriving now. That's some wind happening out there right now!

Lindy
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 624
141 days left until June 1rst.

Link
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Narelle is a beautiful storm. It'd be even better if it cleared the eye out:

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205. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
9:00 AM FST January 11 2013
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 08F (1003 hPa) located at 13.9S 178.1W is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multi-spectral visible imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor in the past 24 hours. Convection persistent in the northeast semi-circle of the system center. The system lies to the east of an upper ridge in a moderate to high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and gradually moves it southwards with slight intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Quoting Astrometeor:


I'm confused, the NWS in Hendersonville don't have snow in the forecast. They have a low of 36 for Middle TN.
hmm.. I'm over to the West of Nashville, maybe that's why?!
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 110023Z - 110630Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH RATES OF AROUND
0.05 IN/HR...LOCALLY HIGHER...BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.

DISCUSSION...A 90-150-MILE WIDE...WNW/ESE-ORIENTED PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING NNEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN WI THIS
EVENING...ENTERING THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI BY 04Z. THIS ACTIVITY
ACCOMPANIES A ZONE OF ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT -- REF. GRB VWP
DATA THAT DEPICT A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE BELOW 1 KM AGL.
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES
RISING TO 3-6C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...COMPLETE
MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS WILL OCCUR.

AT THE SFC...ESELY/SELY TRAJECTORIES...EMANATING FROM A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR MASS CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL ALLOW
SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY HOLD IN THE 30-32F RANGE.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN SFC-LAYER DIABATIC COOLING.
AS SUCH...FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED...WITH RATES OF 0.05 IN/HR
LIKELY...AND LOCALLY HIGHER RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR THE HIGHEST FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL BE FROM 02Z TO 08Z AS
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ACTIVITY
LIKELY TAPERING OFF LATER IN THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LOCALLY
CHANGE TO RAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 32F...OWING TO
DOWNWARD-DIRECTED SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES AND/OR VERY MODEST SFC WARM
ADVECTION.

..COHEN.. 01/11/2013
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32030


Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

January thaw continues into this weekend with periods of
Freezing rain over Eastern Ontario on Friday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system developing over Oklahoma this afternoon is
expected to track northeast towards the Great Lakes tonight and
Friday. This low will bring very mild and fairly moist air into
Southern Ontario.

Current indications suggest rain fall amounts in the 5 to 10 mm range
will be common on Friday with local amounts up to 20 mm mainly over
regions in Southern Ontario. There is also very good potential of
freezing rain for Eastern Ontario on Friday, especially along the
Ottawa Valley including the National Capital Region. A freezing rain
warning has been issued for those regions.

On Saturday very mild air ushered in by southerly winds will help
temperatures rise to 10 to 13 degrees in many areas. Temperatures in
a few locales may reach the mid teens especially in snow-free areas,
making it feel more like late April.

As a result of the very mild temperatures, a number of new maximum
temperature records may be set Friday and Saturday. Most if not all
of the snow on the ground across Southern Ontario and in Eastern
Ontario will melt by Saturday.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Quantum Physics suggests that it is possible to be in more than one place at the same time. There are days that this would certainly come in handy. ... Except I do not trust my other selves to conduct daily business for me. ... That has gotten me in trouble before. :-)
That is a great point and it made me laugh. thanks
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Quoting dabirds:
nymore, I realize you get freezing rain, but isn't it uncommon in mid Jan.? Though expect it's getting more common. We used to expect thaws in early Feb here, hardly freeze at all anymore.
no it is not exactly uncommon, it just happened about three weeks ago. It does not happen a lot but it does happen. Temps can range wildly around here.
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If anyone is interested, I did a little blog post on the flu outbreak for this year:

Flu Outbreak
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Quoting Thrawst:
Can we reach double digit Mesoscale Discussions from the SPC by tonight!!!!?!Pretty sure we will eventually today :p

And we do reach MCD #10 today. I'll just link the discussion to take up less space.

Mesoscale Discussion #10
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
The first tornado of 2013 occurred this morning near the city of New Iberia, Louisiana. It was rated an EF1.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32030
Narelle is looking better than it did 24hrs ago. Now there is a better defined eye and eyewall on microwave imagery instead of a poorly defined one that looked a lot like a question mark. Given that conditions are still favorable more strengthening is certainly expected. The western coast of Australia should begin to get impacts from Narelle in the next day or so.

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194. auburn (Mod)
70s here in Bama all week..
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Quoting stormchaser19:


Yes everything its posible specially with this climate change....Its just a sarcastic comment ..I think just 2 tropical cyclones since 1851 has formed in january....It hard to believe with the shear and the SST in the atlantic

Yup, it very very rarely happens. There have been 2 storms that have formed in January and 2 that formed in December and persisted into January. If a subtropical storm does somehow form from what the models show then it could rival for the second earliest start to the hurricane season. That subtropical storm was Subtropical Storm One in 1978. That is the only subtropical storm to form in January. Also, if we get Andrea then it would be the second time in a row that name is used for a subtropical storm, the only two times "Andrea" has been used.
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Quoting JNCali:
Mid TN forecast to ties high temp records this weekend.. then chance of snow come Tuesday...weeeeeeee..
Current map


I'm confused, the NWS in Hendersonville don't have snow in the forecast. They have a low of 36 for Middle TN.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Now I'm not to sure if this comment is being sarcastic like I suspect or if it's real.I think your being sarcastic.But anyway the weather is already F'ed up.Why not start hurricane season early.


Yes everything its posible specially with this climate change....Its just a sarcastic comment ..I think just 2 tropical cyclones since 1851 has formed in january....It hard to believe with the shear and the SST in the atlantic
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting wxgeek723:


I've never understood the difference between 10 minute winds and 1 minute winds? Can someone explain?

10-minute winds are when they are measured at a height of 33 feet for 10 minutes, and then averaged for a particular value. The same occurs for 1-minute, but in a 1-minute time span.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32030
189. auburn (Mod)
.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
5:47 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (947 hPa) located at 17.1S 113.9E or 535 km north of Exmouth and 505 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south southwest towards Northwest Cape.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Exmouth during this afternoon, then extend south to Coral Bay Saturday morning. Gales may extend south to Carnarvon during Sunday.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast, possibly becoming destructive with wind gusts over 130 kilometers per hour overnight Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometers per hour are possible near the cyclone center.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast during the day with isolated heavy rainfall and squalls possible. This activity will extend into the western and southern Gascoyne over the weekend. Heavy falls are likely near the west Pilbara coast and adjacent Gascoyne on Saturday and Sunday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight, and during Saturday with flooding of low lying coastal areas. A very dangerous storm tide is possible Saturday night if the center of the cyclone passes close to the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth


Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon


I've never understood the difference between 10 minute winds and 1 minute winds? Can someone explain?
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
StA...Big problem here with the white flies and the ficus shrubs.... I hate to spray because of my little Gecko friends.


Up here it's the wasps. Reminds me of Pigpen from the Peanuts cartoon but instead of the persistent dust cloud circling him, it's wasps in my case. That's an exaggeration but not entirely too far-fetched.
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Sun is up on Narelle:

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
My buddy


What can I say - it amuses me.....
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Dreary here today and gonna stay that way. 52.7 and 59.9 were the temps.
Should be mid 50's all week and cold at night in the mid 30's.

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Quoting stormchaser19:


Hahaha!!!!!!!Yeah they are talking about Andrea LoL!!!!!
Now I'm not to sure if this comment is being sarcastic like I suspect or if it's real.I think your being sarcastic.But anyway the weather is already F'ed up.Why not start hurricane season early.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Feel Like Makin' Love
My buddy
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Feel Like Makin' Love
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Quoting StAugustineFL:


I may be the exception. I have a half dozen palm trees and a few other shrubs to prune but there's these flying, stinging critters that enjoy building nests in my shrubs and beneath palm fronds. I need a good cold snap so these little fellers will quit terrorizing me every time I attempt to prune.
StA...Big problem here with the white flies and the ficus shrubs.... I hate to spray because of my little Gecko friends.
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Baby, When I think about you
I think about love
Darling, Don't live without you
And your love
If I have
Those golden dreams
of my yesterday
I would wrap you
In the heaven
Til I'm dying
On the way
Feel like making ______
Feel like making love
Feel like making love to you
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Quoting DocNDswamp:


LOL, it would please me more if the stubborn, blocking linebacker, er... the deep-layered Caribbean-Antilles-Bahama ridge clearly depicted in the graphic Tom posted #106 would truly get shunted away and not reappear for next 2 months... allowing more cold air penetration into the Gulf South!

However, I might be in the minority opinion with this. Seems a lot of Floridians enjoy the warmth that big bloated ridge delivers!
;)


I may be the exception. I have a half dozen palm trees and a few other shrubs to prune but there's these flying, stinging critters that enjoy building nests in my shrubs and beneath palm fronds. I need a good cold snap so these little fellers will quit terrorizing me every time I attempt to prune.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
..Shameless Blog Plug,
Yes it was, Thanks for posting that 22+ minutes of the Honors Show.


yer welcome'
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I saw people discussing about the models showing development in the atlantic.Now that's funny.


Hahaha!!!!!!!Yeah they are talking about Andrea LoL!!!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
..Shameless Blog Plug,
Yes it was, Thanks for posting that 22+ minutes of the Honors Show.
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I saw people discussing about the models showing development in the atlantic.Now that's funny.
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Everybody makes mistakes, even SPC forecasters(ATE should be LATE).


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE


VALID 102135Z - 102300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN AL AND
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL AND THE PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE IS 40 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
FROM FAR SRN AL EXTENDING NWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AL WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE. AS THE LINE OF
CONVECTION WEST OF MOBILE MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. IF THE LINE CAN
INTENSIFY...THEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH ABOUT
25 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE THREAT AND TORNADO THREAT. THE THREATS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR
EAST AS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 01/10/2013
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't feel so good..I think I may have gotten the flu from Duke earlier today.

Go figure...I was just talking about not having it the other day.
Looks like a very bad year for the flu....Glad I got my shot...Sure hope it works. Many sick people here in Palm Beach county
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Dr Hansen states that Earth's climate will run away to the extremes of Venus. But where will the carbon come from? The atmosphere of Venus is mostly C02 and it is 100x more massive than the earth's atmosphere.
That makes 200,000 times more total CO2 than we have if my arithmetic is right.
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Mid TN forecast to ties high temp records this weekend.. then chance of snow come Tuesday...weeeeeeee..
Current map

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I don't feel so good..I think I may have gotten the flu from Duke earlier today.

Go figure...I was just talking about not having it the other day.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32030
ANNO DOMINI MMXII
_________________________

Greatest weather events

________________



click picture for larger view... about 5 times bigger picture
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166. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
5:47 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (947 hPa) located at 17.1S 113.9E or 535 km north of Exmouth and 505 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south southwest towards Northwest Cape.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Exmouth during this afternoon, then extend south to Coral Bay Saturday morning. Gales may extend south to Carnarvon during Sunday.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast, possibly becoming destructive with wind gusts over 130 kilometers per hour overnight Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometers per hour are possible near the cyclone center.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast during the day with isolated heavy rainfall and squalls possible. This activity will extend into the western and southern Gascoyne over the weekend. Heavy falls are likely near the west Pilbara coast and adjacent Gascoyne on Saturday and Sunday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight, and during Saturday with flooding of low lying coastal areas. A very dangerous storm tide is possible Saturday night if the center of the cyclone passes close to the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth


Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.