A record 199 days without a tornado death; 1st tornado of 2013 hits Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:10 PM GMT on January 10, 2013

Share this Blog
33
+

The U.S. has set a weather record of the sort we like to see: the longest continuous stretch without a tornado death. We've had 199 days without a tornado fatality, beating the record of 197 straight days that ended on February 28, 1987. The last U.S. tornado death was at Venus in Highlands County, Florida, from an EF-0 tornado associated with Tropical Storm Debby on June 24, 2012. After a horrific 2011 that saw 553 Americans die in tornadoes--the 2nd highest total since 1950--the 2012 tornado season was not far from average for deaths, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The 2012 tornado death toll was 68, ranking 25th highest since 1950. The average yearly toll between 1950 - 2011 was 91. According to SPC, the total number of tornadoes during 2012 was just 936. This is the first time since 2002 that fewer than 1000 tornadoes have been recorded. The reason for the low tornado total in 2012 was the massive drought that gripped much of Tornado Alley. It's tough to get tornadoes when you're experiencing near-record drought conditions and very few thunderstorms.


Figure 1. June 24, 2012: A tornado spawned by Tropical Storm Debbie crosses Lake Winterset in Winter Haven, Florida. Another tornado from Debbie on this day caused the last tornado death in the U.S., at Venus in Highlands County, Florida. Image credit: wunderphotographer whgator3.


Figure 2. The total number of U.S. tornadoes stronger than EF-0 from 1950 - 2012 does not show a significant long-term trend. However, this database is not very reliable, and we cannot use it to make judgements about how tornadoes may be changing in the long term. Data taken from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Since not all tornadoes from 2012 have been given an EF scale rating yet, the numbers from 2012 are estimated by assuming that the same proportion of EF-0 tornadoes that existed in 2011 also occurred in 2012.

First U.S. tornado of 2013 hits Louisiana
A powerful low pressure system centered over Texas that has dumped over 5" of rain over Southeast Texas and 10" over portions of Louisiana has generated the first U.S. tornado of 2013. The tornado touched down in Plaquemine, Louisiana at 8:35 am CST this morning, when a squall line of severe thunderstorms moved through. Light to moderate roof damage was reported at an industrial plant on Highway 405, about 80 miles west-northwest of New Orleans. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has portions of Southeast Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, and Southern Alabama in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather and tornadoes, so hopefully our record streak without a tornado death will not come to an end today.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation from the past three days from the Lake Charles radar. Over 10" of rain (dark pink colors) is estimated to have fallen over South Central Louisiana.

Earth's extreme weather: no big deal, compared to Venus
Our colleagues at TWC are airing a new series that starts tonight (Thursday) at 9pm EST/8pm CST, called "Deadliest Space Weather." We've put the trailer for tonight's episode on Venus up on the wunderground video section. As I highlighted in my book review of Dr. James Hansen's must-read book, Storms of My Grandchildren, Dr. Hansen argues that Earth's climate may eventually wind up like Venus', with a run-away greenhouse effect: "After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty." In tonight's episode of "Deadliest Space Weather", astronomers and planetary scientists will reveal why the climate of Venus went so horribly wrong, why a similar climate may one day descend on the Earth--and what will happen when it gets here.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 316 - 266

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Quoting hydrus:
I have seen some bad fires in Florida, but nothing like the pics you posted. 85 and 86 were bad years for us. We evenFirefighter, Ranger Held In Brush Fires
April 26, 1985|By United Press International

..Excerpt..FORT MYERS forest ranger and a volunteer firefighter have been charged with setting 28 brush fires north of Immokalee last fall, police said.

Garry Barfield, 28, and John Hunt, 36, both of Immokalee, were being held Thursday in Collier County Jail on charges of willful burning of land.
Ads by Google

Fire & RescueGreat Products. Dedicated People. Ford Can Meet Your Fleet Needs. www.fleet.ford.com

Bond for each was set at $50,000.

Barfield had worked for one year at a state Division of Forestry fire tower west of Immokalee. He was fired as a result of the charges.

Hunt is a truck driver who had been a member of Immokalee's volunteer fire department.

State fire investigator Ed Jones said one of the men told him they set the fires so they could help in the firefighting effort.

''They enjoyed the fire trucks,'' Jones said. ''They set the fires so they could drive the trucks and help put them out.''

bad people that were hired to help us make matters worse...


Same happened here back in 2009 down in Victoria, One of the fires that killed many people and destroyed 100's of houses was lite by a volunteer firefighter. I am not sure what his sentence was but it was many years in gaol. Today young kids have been setting fires to grass areas all over Sydney's west, Most have been caught, Thankfully none of the fires did any damage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
315. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting hydrus:
I have seen some bad fires in Florida, but nothing like the pics you posted. 85 and 86 were bad years for us. We evenFirefighter, Ranger Held In Brush Fires
April 26, 1985|By United Press International

..Excerpt..FORT MYERS forest ranger and a volunteer firefighter have been charged with setting 28 brush fires north of Immokalee last fall, police said.

Garry Barfield, 28, and John Hunt, 36, both of Immokalee, were being held Thursday in Collier County Jail on charges of willful burning of land.
Ads by Google

Fire & RescueGreat Products. Dedicated People. Ford Can Meet Your Fleet Needs. www.fleet.ford.com

Bond for each was set at $50,000.

Barfield had worked for one year at a state Division of Forestry fire tower west of Immokalee. He was fired as a result of the charges.

Hunt is a truck driver who had been a member of Immokalee's volunteer fire department.

State fire investigator Ed Jones said one of the men told him they set the fires so they could help in the firefighting effort.

''They enjoyed the fire trucks,'' Jones said. ''They set the fires so they could drive the trucks and help put them out.''

bad people that were hired to help us make matters worse...


Hope they get the jail time they deserve !! a couple of years ago they caught a volunteer fireman setting barn fires so he could fight them .. think he got at least 7 years before he will be out .. but he caused several million dollars of damage .. these old barns go up very fast .. the timbers are so dry ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
314. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
3:00 PM WST January 11 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (947 hPa) located at 17.6S 113.4E or 495 km north northwest of Exmouth and 810 km north of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour could develop in coastal areas between Mardie and Exmouth this evening, then extend south to Coral Bay later on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area on Saturday with damaging wind gusts to 125 kilometers per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later Saturday and into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Mardie to Coral Bay, including Onslow and Exmouth.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.4S 112.1E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.4S 111.6E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.4S 110.4E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 25.1S 108.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has intensified during the day with a definitive eye now evident on visible and infrared imagery. Intensity of 90 knots based on the three-hour average Dvorak DT of 5.5 [eye pattern], although the latest [0530UTC] IR image could indicate a DT as high as 6.5 [W surround, OW/W eye addition]. FT/CI =5.5.

Further intensification is forecast with low [system relative] wind shear and the system could reach category 5 intensity overnight based on its current trend. The cyclone should gradually weaken as it encounters cooler sea surface temperatures from late Sunday and Monday but may remain at cyclone intensity to Tuesday well off the west coast.

Expected motion persists to the southwest for the next 24 hours and then a more south southwest track is likely in the following days. This leaves the cyclone sufficiently off the coast that coastal areas will only experience the outer edge of the cyclone and a severe impact is not expected.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast tonight and Saturday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast on the weekend and into early next week.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45211
The eye has become less cloud-filled over the past several hours. Expect Narelle to intensify further in the next 24 to 36 hours before weakening in unfavorable conditions with high vertical shear and cold waters. It is also forecast to move south-southwestward as it remains away from Australia's west coast. However, they would still get some effects of the cyclone, including rain and strong waves.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Decisions in an emergency

Residents in Nettlefold Road, north of Launceston, had minutes to make decisions earlier this week when a small fire quickly became an emergency warning. An extreme fire can break out anywhere, and Tasmania's recent hot and dry conditions have shown the need for a bushfire survival plan for people throughout the state. The Tasmanian Fire Service will reiterate that information, with explanations of the alerts and warnings via advertisments in this weekend's newspapers.
I have seen some bad fires in Florida, but nothing like the pics you posted. 85 and 86 were bad years for us. We evenFirefighter, Ranger Held In Brush Fires
April 26, 1985|By United Press International

..Excerpt..FORT MYERS forest ranger and a volunteer firefighter have been charged with setting 28 brush fires north of Immokalee last fall, police said.

Garry Barfield, 28, and John Hunt, 36, both of Immokalee, were being held Thursday in Collier County Jail on charges of willful burning of land.
Ads by Google

Fire & RescueGreat Products. Dedicated People. Ford Can Meet Your Fleet Needs. www.fleet.ford.com

Bond for each was set at $50,000.

Barfield had worked for one year at a state Division of Forestry fire tower west of Immokalee. He was fired as a result of the charges.

Hunt is a truck driver who had been a member of Immokalee's volunteer fire department.

State fire investigator Ed Jones said one of the men told him they set the fires so they could help in the firefighting effort.

''They enjoyed the fire trucks,'' Jones said. ''They set the fires so they could drive the trucks and help put them out.''

bad people that were hired to help us make matters worse...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Cool stuff..:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Decisions in an emergency

Residents in Nettlefold Road, north of Launceston, had minutes to make decisions earlier this week when a small fire quickly became an emergency warning. An extreme fire can break out anywhere, and Tasmania's recent hot and dry conditions have shown the need for a bushfire survival plan for people throughout the state. The Tasmanian Fire Service will reiterate that information, with explanations of the alerts and warnings via advertisments in this weekend's newspapers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Clearly cold-core (see the thickness contours):

Looks like we will see some of that arctic air.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
Upon further examination, it appears most of the global models do indeed show a strengthening surface low over the central Atlantic moving southward over the next few days, presumably in response to that large upper low off the Canadian Maritimes. However, the limited data available from FSU's Cyclone Phase Diagrams suggests that this low will be non-tropical.

500 mb vorticity fields from the GFS indicate that this low, should it exist, will be collocated with a vigorous upper low, suggesting that any hypothetical development would be subtropical.


Clearly cold-core (see the thickness contours):

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is not an accurate distance, but I can dig how they show the the Earths magnetic field in action.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cyclone Narelle is looking beautiful on visible imagery:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What if I had to do TCRs for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season when I still haven't even finished my TCRs for the 2012 season? Like, whoa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Models still showing Andrea?


00z GFS run shows a potential subtropical cyclone forming over the central Atlantic by early to middle of next week. Recent model runs show consistency of this. 12z ECMWF run is also hinting this as well as other global models. We must keep an eye on it if the models continue to show consistency.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Upon further examination, it appears most of the global models do indeed show a strengthening surface low over the central Atlantic moving southward over the next few days, presumably in response to that large upper low off the Canadian Maritimes. However, the limited data available from FSU's Cyclone Phase Diagrams suggests that this low will be non-tropical.

500 mb vorticity fields from the GFS indicate that this low, should it exist, will be collocated with a vigorous upper low, suggesting that any hypothetical development would be subtropical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Models still showing Andrea?


I... must have missed this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Clearing her eye Narelle
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2153
300. whitewabit (Mod)
lake Michigan is 28 inches below average and only two inches above its 1960 low point ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Models still showing Andrea?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Expert: Great Lakes Ice Lagging

The Great Lakes. I have sailed all of them except Lake Michigan. Definitely one of the coolest things I have ever seen. Saw the Aurora Borealis...Beautiful stuff. It looked like curtains from heaven hovering over us. In 1989, I actually saw it in Florida..A rare event indeed..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
297. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Police presence on the Tasman Peninsula

The search of properties affected by fire on the Tasman Peninsula is now complete.

Since last Friday night, emergency services teams have searched 1040 properties in the Forcett Fire zone. It’s been determined the number of homes and businesses severely damaged or destroyed is in the vicinity of 200.

There were no human remains located in the searches.




Amazing there hasn't been any loss of life !!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not what I'd want to see in the distance.


Cobbler Road (Yass) Fire
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Police presence on the Tasman Peninsula

The search of properties affected by fire on the Tasman Peninsula is now complete.

Since last Friday night, emergency services teams have searched 1040 properties in the Forcett Fire zone. It’s been determined the number of homes and businesses severely damaged or destroyed is in the vicinity of 200.

There were no human remains located in the searches.


Up to 70 Tasmania Police, Victoria Police, Australian Defence Force and SES personnel were involved in the searches each day.

Police have not received any missing person reports and have no serious concerns for welfare arising from any enquires made with the National Registration Inquiry System.

The Tasmania Fire Service will continue to undertake detailed damage assessments and investigations.

The contingent of 20 Victoria Police officers who assisted with searches and general duties on the Tasman Peninsula will return to Victoria tomorrow morning.

Tasmania Police will continue to provide a high visibility presence on the Tasman Peninsula over the coming weeks.

It is important for residents returning to their homes to know they have access to police assistance if they require it. Police are also providing additional patrols in the vicinity of fire damaged properties.

Police will also be undertaking additional patrols on the Arthur Highway to ensure the safety of motorists. The Highway is subject to a 60km/h speed limit as crews work to restore services to the area.

Drivers are reminded concentrate on the road as it is easy to be distracted when driving through areas affected by the fire.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fire Weather Warning
for the Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Monaro Alpine, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, Northern Slopes, North Western, Upper Central West Plains, Lower Central West Plains, Southern Slopes, Eastern Riverina, Southern Riverina and Northern Riverina fire areas
Issued at 3:55 pm EDT on Friday 11 January 2013.
Weather Situation
Hot, dry and windy conditions are expected to affect the NSW Ranges, adjacent Slopes and the southern inland on Friday and extend to more parts of the state on Saturday.

For the rest of Friday 11 January:
Extreme Fire Danger in the following fire area:
Southern Riverina
Severe Fire Danger in the following fire areas:
Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Monaro Alpine, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, Northern Slopes, North Western, Upper Central West Plains, Lower Central West Plains, Southern Slopes, Eastern Riverina and Northern Riverina
For Saturday 12 January:
Extreme Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
Monaro Alpine and Southern Ranges
The NSW Rural Fire Service warns that any bush fire that starts has the potential to cause loss of life and destroy many homes.

Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Central Ranges, Lower Central West Plains, Southern Slopes and Eastern Riverina
The NSW Rural Fire Service warns that any bush fire that starts has the potential to threaten lives and destroy homes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


Your not the only one that would hightail it outa there, I would too after I took a few thousand pics. lol

Also video too. Photo's just wouldn't do it justice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


Aussie,

Those pictures you posted earlier were incredible. I saw that they were taken from a boat. I can tell you that if I'd been on that boat and had seen that, I would have been hightailing it out of there! Unbelievable pics!


Lindy

Your not the only one that would hightail it outa there, I would too after I took a few thousand pics. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Freakish Dust Storm Sweeps Over Western Australia



Aussie,

Those pictures you posted earlier were incredible. I saw that they were taken from a boat. I can tell you that if I'd been on that boat and had seen that, I would have been hightailing it out of there! Unbelievable pics!


Lindy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
289. Skyepony (Mod)
Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate



Isaac Held of NOAA took this one step further. He described how loss of ozone in the stratosphere could alter the dynamics of the atmosphere below it. "The cooling of the polar stratosphere associated with loss of ozone increases the horizontal temperature gradient near the tropopause,” he explains. “This alters the flux of angular momentum by mid-latitude eddies. [Angular momentum is important because] the angular momentum budget of the troposphere controls the surface westerlies." In other words, solar activity felt in the upper atmosphere can, through a complicated series of influences, push surface storm tracks off course.

Indeed, Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) presented persuasive evidence that solar variability is leaving an imprint on climate, especially in the Pacific. According to the report, when researchers look at sea surface temperature data during sunspot peak years, the tropical Pacific shows a pronounced La Nina-like pattern, with a cooling of almost 1o C in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In addition, "there are signs of enhanced precipitation in the Pacific ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ) and SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) as well as above-normal sea-level pressure in the mid-latitude North and South Pacific," correlated with peaks in the sunspot cycle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53503
Re: Post 248

TropicsweatherPR:

Thanks so much for looking out for me. You've no idea how much it is appreciated! We just might get some fishing in soon!!

Lindy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
286. wxmod
This is todays 24 hour average air quality for Beijing, China, reported from the US Embassy there.


BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-10-2013 12:00 to 01-11-2013 11:59; PM2.5 24hr avg; 379.0; 420; Hazardous
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cat 4( Cat 3 SSHWS) TC Narelle
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
284. Skyepony (Mod)
DHAKA: A cold snap which saw temperatures drop yesterday to their lowest point in Bangladesh’s post-independence history has killed around 80 people, officials said.

The weather office said the lowest temperature was recorded at three degrees Celsius in the northern town of Syedpur and the Red Crescent said hospitals were packed with patients suffering respiratory illness.

Shah Alam, deputy head of the weather office, said the last time the temperature had dropped below three degrees Celsius was in February 1968 when Bangladesh was still part of Pakistan.

“The temperature is the lowest in Bangladesh’s history,” he said.

The Red Crescent Society said impoverished rural areas had been worst hit as many people could not afford warm clothing or heating.

“They are not prepared for such extreme weather. Many could not even go to work,” the society’s general-secretary Abu Bakar said.

“According to the reports of our district offices and local administrations about 80 people have died due to cold-related diseases such as respiratory problems, pneumonia and cough,” Bakar added.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
11:53 AM WST January 11 2012


The system intensified overnight and recent microwave has shown increasing
intensity. Position is based on satellite and microwave imagery. Dvorak embedded
centre pattern gives a DT of 5.0 but with MET and pattern giving 5.5, CI has
been set at 5.5. CIMSS AMSU was 107 knots but is now back to 95 knots [1 minute
average]. Instensity stands at 90 knots.

Motion has been SW at around 7 knots. It is expected to continue with all models
and most EC consensus members taking the system west of Exmouth. A severe
coastal impact in the west Pilbara is becoming less and less likely.

Northeasterly shear of about 14 knots is expected to continue. Given that the
system is moving south southwesterly at around 7 knots, the storm relative shear
is low. The system should continue to intensity but remain a catergory 4 system.
It should then start weakening as it moves into increasing shear and over colder
water when it gets south of 21S. This also corresponds to when EC and ACCESS-TC
start weakening the system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
282. wxmod
This is Australia, hot off the press, beamed from MODIS Terra just a few minutes ago. What is notable here is that YOU DON"T SEE ANY FIRES. Fires can be very scary if they are near your home, but as far as global events go, the Australia fires are small potatoes. Compare this photo with my earlier posting of the smog in China where thick smog covers almost the entire country. China smog is off the charts and is getting WORSE.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
281. skook
Lowest maximum temperature records broken or tied on Jan 10 2013 ...

Location new record old record period of record

Alpine 48 51 in 1974 1952
Ramona 52 56 in 1993 1974
Vista 54 55 in 1974 1957
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


I wonder if this thing in the middle atlantic is going to have a tropical characteristics
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2153
279. skook
By JULIE WATSON | Associated Press

SAN DIEGO (AP) — Strawberry growers covered their crops while San Diego zookeepers turned on heaters for the chimpanzees as Southern California braced for a cold snap that was expected to drop temperatures to a six-year low.

Forecasters warned that a low pressure trough sinking over San Diego County and parts of neighboring Orange County could keep nightly temperatures below freezing in coastal areas, the low deserts and inland valleys, threatening orange, avocado orchards and other sensitive plants. The coldest nights were expected to hit Friday and Saturday.

Farmers were prepared to pull out giant fans to circulate the frosty air and keep it from settling on their citrus trees, said Eric Larson of the San Diego County Farm Bureau. Other growers were placing soft cloth over their strawberries and flowers. The National Weather Service predicted overnight lows in the 20s in the lower deserts and inland valleys and 30s along the coast.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
A beta model page is now running select numerical model products for a few regions. The 00z GFS is currently coming in. The GEM, GFS ensembles, and GEM ensembles will follow later tonight.

Feel free to check it out:

Numerical Model Guidance

I have to say this is really nice and I can't wait for more to come.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting Levi32:
A beta model page is now running select numerical model products for a few regions. The 00z GFS is currently coming in. The GEM, GFS ensembles, and GEM ensembles will follow later tonight.

Feel free to check it out:

Numerical Model Guidance
Is like a new toy for me lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
276. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
11:53 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (946 hPa) located at 17.4S 113.6E or 505 km north of Exmouth and 505 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour could develop in coastal areas between Roebourne and Exmouth during this afternoon, then extend south to Coral Bay on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast. Destructive winds with gusts to 140 kilometers could develop in the Exmouth area on Sunday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara coast should ease from the east later in the day

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast during Sunday and Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Roebourne to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45211
Alabama Power ‏@alabamapower
High winds responsible for over 17,000 outages statewide; 10,000 in Bham Division and 6500 in Western Division.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Expert: Great Lakes Ice Lagging



Surface temps are staying well above average just like last year. Here's Lake Michigan over 2012:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Smoke from the Oura Fire

Video
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
@Seanberry7news - Sean Berry
Tarcutta main street as fire approaches
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Narelle has dry air surrounding it, but the cyclone itself is in a very strong moisture bubble. Dry air isn't going to get to its core like that.

The eye continues to clear too. Not sure what you're seeing.

Watch the white area, it shrinks. TC Narelle is ingesting dust from land which is drying her out, that area is synonymous for it. That area is baking hot and has been that way for the last 2 months.

Current rains from TC Narelle


from Learmonth Radar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A beta model page is now running select numerical model products for a few regions. The 00z GFS is currently coming in. The GEM, GFS ensembles, and GEM ensembles will follow later tonight.

Feel free to check it out:

Numerical Model Guidance
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 316 - 266

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.