A record 199 days without a tornado death; 1st tornado of 2013 hits Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:10 PM GMT on January 10, 2013

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The U.S. has set a weather record of the sort we like to see: the longest continuous stretch without a tornado death. We've had 199 days without a tornado fatality, beating the record of 197 straight days that ended on February 28, 1987. The last U.S. tornado death was at Venus in Highlands County, Florida, from an EF-0 tornado associated with Tropical Storm Debby on June 24, 2012. After a horrific 2011 that saw 553 Americans die in tornadoes--the 2nd highest total since 1950--the 2012 tornado season was not far from average for deaths, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The 2012 tornado death toll was 68, ranking 25th highest since 1950. The average yearly toll between 1950 - 2011 was 91. According to SPC, the total number of tornadoes during 2012 was just 936. This is the first time since 2002 that fewer than 1000 tornadoes have been recorded. The reason for the low tornado total in 2012 was the massive drought that gripped much of Tornado Alley. It's tough to get tornadoes when you're experiencing near-record drought conditions and very few thunderstorms.


Figure 1. June 24, 2012: A tornado spawned by Tropical Storm Debbie crosses Lake Winterset in Winter Haven, Florida. Another tornado from Debbie on this day caused the last tornado death in the U.S., at Venus in Highlands County, Florida. Image credit: wunderphotographer whgator3.


Figure 2. The total number of U.S. tornadoes stronger than EF-0 from 1950 - 2012 does not show a significant long-term trend. However, this database is not very reliable, and we cannot use it to make judgements about how tornadoes may be changing in the long term. Data taken from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Since not all tornadoes from 2012 have been given an EF scale rating yet, the numbers from 2012 are estimated by assuming that the same proportion of EF-0 tornadoes that existed in 2011 also occurred in 2012.

First U.S. tornado of 2013 hits Louisiana
A powerful low pressure system centered over Texas that has dumped over 5" of rain over Southeast Texas and 10" over portions of Louisiana has generated the first U.S. tornado of 2013. The tornado touched down in Plaquemine, Louisiana at 8:35 am CST this morning, when a squall line of severe thunderstorms moved through. Light to moderate roof damage was reported at an industrial plant on Highway 405, about 80 miles west-northwest of New Orleans. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has portions of Southeast Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, and Southern Alabama in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather and tornadoes, so hopefully our record streak without a tornado death will not come to an end today.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation from the past three days from the Lake Charles radar. Over 10" of rain (dark pink colors) is estimated to have fallen over South Central Louisiana.

Earth's extreme weather: no big deal, compared to Venus
Our colleagues at TWC are airing a new series that starts tonight (Thursday) at 9pm EST/8pm CST, called "Deadliest Space Weather." We've put the trailer for tonight's episode on Venus up on the wunderground video section. As I highlighted in my book review of Dr. James Hansen's must-read book, Storms of My Grandchildren, Dr. Hansen argues that Earth's climate may eventually wind up like Venus', with a run-away greenhouse effect: "After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty." In tonight's episode of "Deadliest Space Weather", astronomers and planetary scientists will reveal why the climate of Venus went so horribly wrong, why a similar climate may one day descend on the Earth--and what will happen when it gets here.

Jeff Masters

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I never knew thermodynamics had an extreme agenda.

DOWN WITH ENTHALPY!!
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I have a agenda...It's called waiting for hurricane season.I rather here about this made up storm "Andrea" than all this arguing.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


Nice try.

You forgot the massive ice age and global cooling predictions made by scientists in the wake of the cold periods in the 1970's.

Can't cherry pick, now. :)



Seriously, why do you keep posting this nonesense. Your "ice age" claims have been debunked repeatedly.

Link

And if that isn't good enough, you can go to Nature and other science periodical sites and search for the climate research of that era.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


Nice try.

You forgot the massive ice age and global cooling predictions made by scientists in the wake of the cold periods in the 1970's.

Can't cherry pick, now. :)



LOL, this is where they usualy say, "It was rejected by scientists!"
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting TomballTXPride:


That's a good point you bring up. So far it has been propaganda free. And if there was propaganda, I would be the first one to counter it, believe me.

I tell ya, they will think of ANYTHING to justify their warming agenda and bashing of big energy. And these folks are customers of the "big bad machine". Makes you wonder where their credibility is....

Heat, cold, stratopheric warming, etc. It is all evidence that suits there agenda.

Sad, really.


You're like a 5 year old claiming vehemently that the world is flat simply because you don't understand the science behind what makes the world round.

Instead of making up BS an hand waving away that which you don't understand (and making a fool of yourself in the process), you could actually try to read up and understand the actual science. There are countless papers on the topic, many layman sites, and even sites run by bona fide climate scientists. They answer all your questions and more. Nea, myself, and others have posted links to such information before (even links to model source and data sets) and yet you remain willfully ignorant on the topic.

Quoting TomballTXPride:


But Funnel, they do it all the time. They always use a single extreme weather event or even a year (2012, for instance) as sufficient evidence to support their extreme stance on thermodynamics.

Which is why it is nothing more than an agenda. Just like politics.

Sad.



No. No they don't. And once again you're just making up bovine excrement to suite YOUR agenda. I'd like for you to point to one peer reviewed scientific study that attempts to use just a single weather event to demonstrate the globe is warming or the climate is changing. You won't find one.
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359. ARiot
Quoting TomballTXPride:


But Funnel, they do it all the time. They always use a single extreme weather event or even a year (2012, for instance) as sufficient evidence to support their extreme stance on thermodynamics.

Which is why it is nothing more than an agenda. Just like politics.

Sad.



Wow, an agenda supported by thousands of scientists going back to the mid 1800s, supported by reams of empirical evidence, and borne out by observation.

What are some other sneaky agendas? Physics? I'm starting to suspect it's all politics too. Maybe we could get a committe formed to investige them too!
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Quoting VR46L:


You think so , I think its a mid lat Extrop storm that lost its way from their normal course ...


Extrop storms that wander into the tropics can spin up tropical, or subtropical cyclones.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, im surprised the blog entry didnt contain any global warming propaganda.


Global warming is not propaganda. It is science, backed by petabytes of data and thousands of research papers. If you have a better theory and can prove it, by all means go ahead and get published.

the last time i was here someone said that the reason it was snowing so much was because of the "warm" atmosphere making precipitation? wow! cant believe the stupidity and gullible sheeple nature of the population.


From this, it is obvious you don't know the first thing about meteorology, let alone climatology. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. More moisture means more snow in winter. In other words, you get larger snowfalls when temperatures are near freezing as opposed to 20 below. This basic physical concept has been known and understood for well over a century.

im sure in the next couple of days, there will be an entry about the hot summer and widlfires in australia. meanwhile, middle east is under a winter weather advisory!!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57563258/rare -snow-shuts-down-jerusalem/


Both are weather related topics and weather is influenced by climate. There have been several posts here and other respectable science oriented sites on how the changing climate is affecting the jetstream, which directly impacts weather. Regardless, direct attribution of any particular weather event is hard to establish.
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356. VR46L
Quoting FunnelVortex:
ECMWF shows Andrea forming directly from the low:



GFS shows Andrea forming south of the low.



You think so , I think its a mid lat Extrop storm that lost its way from their normal course ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
338 stormchaser43: does he mean like porno?

Nope. Those who click ads in porn sites or ads leading into porn sites are frankly too deliberately* ignorant to bother warning. Homeland Security says that malware-disguised-as-ads are being specifically targeted at news and weather sites.

* As in, ifn folks wanna play football in a well known minefield, there ain't a whole heck of a lot that warning them yet again would accomplish.
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ECMWF shows Andrea forming directly from the low:



GFS shows Andrea forming south of the low.

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, im surprised the blog entry didnt contain any global warming propaganda. the last time i was here someone said that the reason it was snowing so much was because of the "warm" atmosphere making precipitation? wow! cant believe the stupidity and gullible sheeple nature of the population. im sure in the next couple of days, there will be an entry about the hot summer and widlfires in australia. meanwhile, middle east is under a winter weather advisory!!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57563258/rare -snow-shuts-down-jerusalem/

Check the blog Dr Masters wrote titled Historic heat wave brings Australia its hottest average temperature on record.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
NO!! Javascript is not Java; in fact, the only thing they really have in common is two syllables. Disabling browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities, and will, in fact, render many/most websites (including much of this one) unusable. Disable the Java add-in, if you wish--but leave Javascript alone...


That is correct. Java and Javascript are similar in name but are completely different languages. A number of sites use Java (via applets) but most websites use some form of Javascript today.

The article is referring to a newly discovered bug in Java that could allow a malicious applet access to your computer. The type of exploit is referred to as a "0 day exploit", which refers to the fact that it was a recently discovered issue and hackers are taking advantage of it.

These types of exploits are not a new phenomena, and have occurred across many programming languages, databases, and operating systems. Usually, such exploits are patched pretty quickly. Until then, if you have a tendency to visit the shadier side of the net I would recommend disabling Java within your browser.
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Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, im surprised the blog entry didnt contain any global warming propaganda. the last time i was here someone said that the reason it was snowing so much was because of the "warm" atmosphere making precipitation? wow! cant believe the stupidity and gullible sheeple nature of the population. im sure in the next couple of days, there will be an entry about the hot summer and widlfires in australia. meanwhile, middle east is under a winter weather advisory!!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57563258/rare -snow-shuts-down-jerusalem/


To be fair, a warmer atmopshere holds more moisture which leads to more snow in the northern latitudes.

Also, a single snow event is not sufficient enough to support argument against AGW.

I am a skeptic of AGW, but making claims like that are akin to the people using the record warm year to support thier argument for AGW.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
348. VR46L
Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning..

Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image

Loop embedded




Morning Ainslie

Not a problem at all
I am a bit of a satellite Junkie ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, im surprised the blog entry didnt contain any global warming propaganda. the last time i was here someone said that the reason it was snowing so much was because of the "warm" atmosphere making precipitation? wow! cant believe the stupidity and gullible sheeple nature of the population. im sure in the next couple of days, there will be an entry about the hot summer and widlfires in australia. meanwhile, middle east is under a winter weather advisory!!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57563258/rare -snow-shuts-down-jerusalem/


Oh, the irony! A warmer planet means more evaporation and more precipitation. That means more snow as well as rain. Even a sheep could understand it.
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344. VR46L
Good Morning..

Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image

Loop embedded


Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
Quoting aspectre:
334 Neapolitan: NO!! Javascript is not Java; in fact, the only thing they really have in common is two syllables. Disabling browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities, browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities...

THANKS for the correction. Made the mistake of assuming "JAVA software" included all JAVA products.

I wish I could work out a way to stop getting junk emails to my hotmail junk mail box. I get about 100 a day. Big pain in the butt.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Time to head for school, but it's jeans Friday, so more relaxed day for teachers. Everyone have a great Friday!

Aussie, love the idea of the bath water, must remember that! Have a great Saturday and weekend!

It was easy, Just put one end of the hose in the bath right beside the drain hole. secured it with the suction bath mat, put the hose out the window. went downstairs sucked on the other end for like 5 seconds and i could feel it coming down. The decent from the window upstairs created a vacuum which just kept the water flowing. I had so much I filled a watering can with what was left after giving the garden a good soaking for 5mins. All from slighty used kiddy bath water. Saved me from watering the garden. Now that the garden has had such a good soaking, it will hopefully withstand the 45C(113F) day predicted for later today,Saturday.
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334 Neapolitan: NO!! Javascript is not Java; in fact, the only thing they really have in common is two syllables. Disabling browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities, browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities...

THANKS for the correction. Made the mistake of assuming "JAVA software" included all JAVA products.
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GFS at 48 hours....
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@NWSJacksonMS
Vicksburg airport set a record daily max rainfall of 5.37 inches yesterday which breaks the previous record of 2.10 inches set in 1968
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting aspectre:
>The US Department of Homeland Security warned Thursday that a flaw in
Java software is so dangerous that people should stop using it.
ie It is strongly recommended that you disable JavaScript in your browser applications immediately.

Apparently the blackhats are placing malware ads (through the various ad farms) specifically targeting news and weather sites, along with the expectable "adults-only" sites.
NO!! Javascript is not Java; in fact, the only thing they really have in common is two syllables. Disabling browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities, and will, in fact, render many/most websites (including much of this one) unusable. Disable the Java add-in, if you wish--but leave Javascript alone...
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322 AussieStorm: Seriously, this can not be true. 121.3F at Lihou Reef.

Don't see how it could be a good reading. The automated weather station is on an tiny islet with a maximum elevation of ~6metres(20feet) above sea level. And there ain't no place on the islet that's more than ~100metres(328feet) from the ocean

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

The US Department of Homeland Security warned Thursday that a flaw in
Java software is so dangerous that people should stop using it.

Corrected due to the Neapolitan's comment 334
ie It is strongly recommended that you disable Java PlugIn in your browser immediately.

Apparently the blackhats are placing malware ads (through the various ad farms) specifically targeting news and weather sites, along with the expectable "adults-only" sites.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time to head for school, but it's jeans Friday, so more relaxed day for teachers. Everyone have a great Friday!

Aussie, love the idea of the bath water, must remember that! Have a great Saturday and weekend!
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
309 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

...UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
SUPPORT STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SINKS SOUTH TO
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH NIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST COAST...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER
THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS AS AN UPPER RIDGE REACHES FROM CUBA TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS
THE PLAINS...A FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE TX
COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG LATITUDE 30
NORTH DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF REGION AND SE U.S. WITH TIME THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY WORKS EAST AND NORTHEAST...FLATTENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AND SAGGING THE FRONT INTO THE GULF COAST/SE U.S.
STATES. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH NEARLY IN
PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS. THIS KEEPS THE
FORECAST DRY AND WARM WITH MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR
NORTH ON THU WHEN THE APPROACHING FRONT PROVIDES ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND ENERGY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO PATCHY BR AND LOW CLOUDS BY 08Z-09Z
WITH MVFR/LCL IFR THAT CONTINUE UNTIL 13Z-14Z. VFR THEN RETURNS
WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND EAST AND SE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY TODAY WILL SINK SOUTH TO OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE OVER
THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE
SURGES UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

TAMPA INTERNATIONAL 83 SET BACK IN 1989
SAINT PETERSBURG CLEARWATER 79 SET BACK 2008
SARASOTA/BRADENTON 84 SET BACK IN 1991
LAKELAND 84 SET BACK IN 1993
BROOKSVILLE 80 SET BACK IN 2008
FORT MYERS 86 SET BACK IN 1975

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 64 81 65 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 82 63 82 62 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 82 61 82 62 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 80 62 80 62 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 82 56 82 56 / 10 10 10 10
SPG 79 65 78 65 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE





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Good morning everyone,

Usually in the middle of January, if the radar looked like this there was a snowstorm impacting the area. Not today, this is all rain with temps getting into the mid 50s today and near 60F tomorrow.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Nope, no complaints, means I don't have to go out and water flowers. *G*

Well I just used the water from my kids bath tonight to water my garden. It seems such a waste to let it flow out to sea.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Morning. Are you complaining about it yet?


Nope, no complaints, means I don't have to go out and water flowers. *G*
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone, evening, Aussie. Looks like more rain moving in possibly tonight. We're still under flood warnings from this weeks rain. And it'll be next Thursday before all the rain stops.
Good Morning. Are you complaining about it yet?
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Good morning, everyone, evening, Aussie. Looks like more rain moving in possibly tonight. We're still under flood warnings from this weeks rain. And it'll be next Thursday before all the rain stops.
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The sunspot I mentioned yesterday, 1654, continued to grow in size and magnetic complexity last night, and it produced an M class solar flare, along with another almost M class solar flare. It's still a couple days away from being in direct line with Earth, but definitely something to keep an eye on.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7609
Narelle put on quite a show last night, up to 110kts according to JTWC. It's running out of time to strengthen further, however.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7609


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 5:44 pm WST on Friday 11 January 2013

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Mardie to Coral Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon.

At 5:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, Category 4 was estimated to be
475 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and
790 kilometres north of Carnarvon and
moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest
and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop in coastal areas
between Mardie and Exmouth this evening, then extend south to Coral Bay later
on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area on Saturday with damaging wind
gusts to 125 kilometres per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone
takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara
coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with
isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne
over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high
tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas
possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later
Saturday and into early next week.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Mardie to Coral Bay including
Onslow and Exmouth should be taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in the Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha and Dampier
area are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected.
Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.8 degrees South 112.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 942 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday 11 January.


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0727 UTC 11/01/2013
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.6S
Longitude: 113.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 947 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 200 nm [370 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS SST:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
12: 11/1800: 18.4S 112.1E: 045 [080]: 100 [185]: 930
24: 12/0600: 19.4S 111.6E: 070 [130]: 105 [195]: 925
36: 12/1800: 20.3S 111.0E: 090 [165]: 105 [195]: 924
48: 13/0600: 21.4S 110.4E: 110 [200]: 105 [195]: 925
60: 13/1800: 22.9S 109.6E: 130 [235]: 080 [150]: 950
72: 14/0600: 25.1S 108.8E: 145 [270]: 050 [095]: 974
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has intensified during the day with a definitive
eye now evident on visible and infra-red imagery. Intensity of 90 knots based on
the three-hour average Dvorak DT of 5.5 [eye pattern], although the latest
[0530UTC] IR image could indicate a DT as high as 6.5 [W surround, OW/W eye
addition]. FT/CI =5.5.

Further intensification is forecast with low [system relative] wind shear and
the system could reach category 5 intensity overnight based on its current
trend. The cyclone should gradually weaken as it encounters cooler SSTs from
late Sunday and Monday but may remain at cyclone intensity to Tuesday well off
the west coast.

Expected motion persists to the southwest for the next 24 hours and then a more
south southwest track is likely in the following days. This leaves the cyclone
sufficiently off the coast that coastal areas will only experience the outer
edge of the cyclone and a severe impact is not expected.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast tonight and
Saturday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast on the weekend and into
early next week.





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good morning folks!..cant believe the temps here...
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317. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST January 11 2013
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East of Mindanao

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.4N 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. This depression is reported as moving north northwest at 14 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44716
Quoting hydrus:
I have seen some bad fires in Florida, but nothing like the pics you posted. 85 and 86 were bad years for us. We evenFirefighter, Ranger Held In Brush Fires
April 26, 1985|By United Press International

..Excerpt..FORT MYERS forest ranger and a volunteer firefighter have been charged with setting 28 brush fires north of Immokalee last fall, police said.

Garry Barfield, 28, and John Hunt, 36, both of Immokalee, were being held Thursday in Collier County Jail on charges of willful burning of land.
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Bond for each was set at $50,000.

Barfield had worked for one year at a state Division of Forestry fire tower west of Immokalee. He was fired as a result of the charges.

Hunt is a truck driver who had been a member of Immokalee's volunteer fire department.

State fire investigator Ed Jones said one of the men told him they set the fires so they could help in the firefighting effort.

''They enjoyed the fire trucks,'' Jones said. ''They set the fires so they could drive the trucks and help put them out.''

bad people that were hired to help us make matters worse...


Same happened here back in 2009 down in Victoria, One of the fires that killed many people and destroyed 100's of houses was lite by a volunteer firefighter. I am not sure what his sentence was but it was many years in gaol. Today young kids have been setting fires to grass areas all over Sydney's west, Most have been caught, Thankfully none of the fires did any damage.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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