Historic heat wave brings Australia its hottest average temperature on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on January 08, 2013

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It's been a summer like no other in the history of Australia, where a sprawling heat wave of historical proportions is entering its second week. Monday, January 7, was the hottest day in Australian history, averaged over the entire country, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The high temperature averaged over Australia was 105°F (40.3°C), eclipsing the previous record of 104°F (40.2°C) set on 21 December 1972. Never before in 103 years of record keeping has a heat wave this intense, wide-spread, and long-lasting affected Australia. The nation's average high temperature exceeded 102°F (39°C) for five consecutive days January 2 - 6, 2013--the first time that has happened since record keeping began in 1910. Monday's temperatures extended that string by another day, to six. To put this remarkable streak in perspective, the previous record of four consecutive days with a national average high temperature in excess of 102°F (39°C) has occurred once only (1973), and only two other years have had three such days in a row--1972 and 2002 (thanks go to climate blogger Greg Laden for these stats.) Another brutally hot day is in store for Wednesday, as the high pressure region responsible for the heat wave, centered just south of the coast, will bring clear skies and a northerly flow of air over most of the country. A slight cool down will occur later in the week, as the high weakens and slides to the east of Australia. The western coast of Australia may see cloud cover and rain from Tropical Cyclone Narelle this weekend, but the rest of the country will see very little in the way of cloud cover or rain during the coming week.


Figure 1. Aerial view of fire at Copping/Forcett, Tasmania, at around 4pm on 4 Jan 2013, taken from an airplane leaving Hobart Airport. Image credit: Wikipedia.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his Monday post, Australia's extreme heat helped fuel wild fires in southeastern Tasmania that burned to the ground at least 100 homes last Friday and Saturday. The temperature peaked in the state capital of Hobart at 41.8°C (107.2°F) on Friday, the hottest temperature on record for the city, and tied for the 2nd hottest temperature ever recorded in Tasmania (records go back to 1882). The 2013 Australian heat wave extends a period of unusual warmth for the country. The last four months of 2012 were the hottest such period on record, with an average Australian maximum temperature +1.61°C, just beating the previous record of 1.60°C set in 2002. The current heat wave has not yet set a record for all-time hottest temperature in Australian history, which remains the 50.7°C (123.3°F) reading on 2 January 1960 at Oodnadatta, South Australia.


Figure 2. Departure of high temperature from average (using a base period of 1961 - 1990) for the first six days of 2013. A large area of Australia has had high temperatures more than 6°C (11°F) higher than average. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Jeff Masters

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272. washingtonian115
12:12 AM GMT on January 09, 2013
I know for some hurricane season is like a thousand years away but the gulf stream and the loop current are very warm right now.A matter of fact all the tropical Atlantic is toasty as of right now.That is one key ingredient though.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15716
271. Some1Has2BtheRookie
9:54 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting pcola57:


I agree..
I may have sounded like I was baiting him..
It wasn't meant that way,
I've said it in 2 post reply's and I'll say it again..
I'm not taking sides here or taking Nea to task..
just speaking my views in a rationaland calm way..
I hope thats how it comes across as I mean it no other way whatsoever..


Oh, no. I was not referring to you at all in this. I was merely commenting that it is both push and pull. I was not suggesting that you were baiting NEA.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
270. seminolesfan
9:50 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's extremely common--in fact, it's standard--to round temperatures up or down to the nearest whole degree when converting Fahrenheit readings to Celsius, especially in informal instances when greater precision is required. It's also common when rounding decimals to round down anything from 0.01 to 0.49, and round up everything from 0.5 to 0.99. So Dr. Masters followed convention. Now, had he intended to mislead as you've accused him, he would have omitted the Celsius readings altogether. But since he included them--and since he didn't say "the new record was an entire degree warmer than the old record", you can accept that as pretty clear evidence that he was, as always, on the up and up.

Thanks for asking; I'm glad to be able to provide clarification.

As usual, you seem to be glad to be able to provide snark as well.
Many people will skim over the metric version simply because it isn't as familiar. Even though not strictly misleading, the reader is led to assume a degree over the previous record. This is fact.
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2106
269. pcola57
9:50 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I do not ever recall labeling you as a "denier", nymore. I have, on several occasions, stated that you will sometimes mimmick those of the denial industry. I am still uncertain as to what your stance actually is. We have had some enlightening conversations between us. Yet, I have noticed that when we seem to be making progress in conversations towards what would possibly work in terms of mitigation, you go silent.


New Blog..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6656
268. Some1Has2BtheRookie
9:49 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting nymore:





Really. I have never said man has no hand in it and over on Ricky's blog whenever you question any aspect of AGWT, they label you.



I do not ever recall labeling you as a "denier", nymore. I have, on several occasions, stated that you will sometimes mimmick those of the denial industry. I am still uncertain as to what your stance actually is. We have had some enlightening conversations between us. Yet, I have noticed that when we seem to be making progress in conversations towards what would possibly work in terms of mitigation, you go silent.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
267. pcola57
9:26 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting pcola57:


I agree..
I may have sounded like I was baiting him..
It wasn't meant that way,
I've said it in 2 post reply's and I'll say it again..
I'm not taking sides here or taking Nea to task..
just speaking my views in a rationaland calm way..
I hope thats how it comes across as I mean it no other way whatsoever..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6656
266. pcola57
9:21 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I find it interesting that many times certain people will call NEA out and even note when he does not make a quick reply to their statements. There is as much pull technology going here as there is push technology.


I agree..
I may have sounded like I was baiting him..
It wasn't meant that way,
I've said it in 2 post reply's and I'll say it again..
I'm not taking sides here or taking Nea to task..
just speaking my views in a rationaland calm way..
I hope thats how it comes across as I mean it no other way whatsoever..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6656
265. Neapolitan
9:17 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting Wiiilbur:
"The high temperature averaged over Australia was 105°F (40.3°C), eclipsing the previous record of 104°F (40.2°C) set on 21 December 1972."

Slightly misleading, wouldn't you say? A 0.18 degree F difference does not a degree F make. But if you want to make things look completely unprecedented, round 104.36 to 104 and 104.54 to 105. Voila! 0.18 degree becomes 1 degree! I wonder if that's how climate change models are calculated.

It's extremely common--in fact, it's standard--to round temperatures up or down to the nearest whole degree when converting Fahrenheit readings to Celsius, especially in informal instances when greater precision is required. It's also common when rounding decimals to round down anything from 0.01 to 0.49, and round up everything from 0.5 to 0.99. So Dr. Masters followed convention. Now, had he intended to mislead as you've accused him, he would have omitted the Celsius readings altogether. But since he included them--and since he didn't say "the new record was an entire degree warmer than the old record", you can accept that as pretty clear evidence that he was, as always, on the up and up.

Thanks for asking; I'm glad to be able to provide clarification.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
264. Skyepony (Mod)
9:12 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Here's the Melbourne, FL NWS Duel-pol radar ball sitting in the parking lot. It is so huge. Way bigger looking then sitting on it's tower. That is the building on the left. Tower getting rebuilt & higher on the right. They already redid the foundation for higher winds. They were reassembling the old tower then adding a section to get it higher than the new hanger being built right next to it at the airport. I think the ball will only be down til Thursday. They got it down this morning. Click on the pic to see the series.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
263. pcola57
9:12 PM GMT on January 08, 2013

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6656
262. barbamz
9:09 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting schistkicker:


Otherwise, if we want geology to do it, we're going to have to wait for a new subduction zone to form and throw up a large mountain chain at temperate latitudes, so we can let chemical weathering pull atmospheric CO2 into the eroded sediments that get buried on the margin. Of course, the timescale for that sort of process is a bit problematic for us in the opposite direction...


Maybe we'll hopefully find different solutions in a shorter time frame?

CO₂ as alternative carbon source
From climate sinner to useful material


Some 30 billion tons of CO₂ are emitted worldwide annually. But the greenhouse gas can no longer be considered solely as a climate damaging waste, because researchers from Bayer have discovered a way of turning carbon dioxide into a useful raw material.

Oil, natural gas and coal and biomass are the traditional sources of carbon, relied on so heavily by the chemical industry. These four substances are the starting point for around 40 basic chemicals and more than 40,000 chemical products.

The problem is that fossil raw materials will run out in the not too distant future, as they are becoming increasingly expensive and a great deal of energy is needed to process them.

Now, however, it looks like a fifth source has been found that doesn't come with all these disadvantages: the ubiquitous greenhouse gas carbon dioxide could be used as a carbon source and replace some of the significant amount of oil used to manufacture plastics. To reach this goal, Bayer has initiated several projects with partners from the industry and scientific community.

Pilot plant in Leverkusen

Most advanced is “Dream Production,” an initiative to use CO₂ as the source of one of the two components needed to produce polyurethane, a foam material that is widely applied in furniture, athletic shoes or thermal insulation. And mattresses, the first application for the new raw material. The first CO2-based polyurethanes are due to come to market from the middle of this decade.

Since the beginning of 2011, Bayer MaterialScience has been manufacturing test batches of the chemical substance needed at a pilot plant in Leverkusen, Germany. The CO₂ used in this process is sourced from a power plant operated by RWE near Cologne. It is removed from the flue gas and liquefied for transportation.

Closing the carbon cycle

“This new process was made possible by a scientific breakthrough,” explains project manager Christoph Gürtler. “We finally found the suitable catalyst experts have been searching for so long.” It enables the efficient reaction of CO₂, which is normally slow to react. The partners in the alliance are confident that the new process is also ecologically viable and will ultimately even reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

In another project called CO₂rrect that extends far into the future, Bayer is taking the next step and seeking to integrate electricity from wind mills in its efforts to make use of carbon dioxide for a double sustainability effect. One goal is to convert the CO₂ into carbon monoxide, a key basic chemical that could in turn be used to produce another component for polyurethanes. This would close the carbon cycle.

Source
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 44 Comments: 5030
260. hydrus
9:01 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting schistkicker:


Clearly not.
In the geologic past, the ways the planet dealt with "excess" CO2 included dissolving it in the ocean or bonding it into the structure of minerals precipitated from water or eroding from highlands. Neither one of those happens terribly rapidly; rates are geologic and not human-timescale. Unfortunately, they really can't be sped up on a global scale without a truly catastrophic event as a trigger, either.
It is hard to imagine what may have happened in the past four and a half billion years or so...Or what will happen in the next four and a half billion..Either way, I,m for less pollution and deforestation. ..Forests are the lungs of our land, purifying the air and giving fresh strength to our people..F.D.R.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
259. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:01 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
258. TomTaylor
9:00 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


Why thank you. I'm doing well, enjoying the last week of break.

I've gotten a ton of work done. With any luck I intend to have some kind of a live model page up either later today or tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

I can't wait!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
257. Minnemike
9:00 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
hi Grothar.. you can come out and play :)
last i checked you hold the patent for rubber and glue
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
256. Barefootontherocks
8:59 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17512
255. yonzabam
8:57 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
...
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430
254. schistkicker
8:57 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Huh. The goal is less CO2. Right? LOL. I must not be following you...


Clearly not.
In the geologic past, the ways the planet dealt with "excess" CO2 included dissolving it in the ocean or bonding it into the structure of minerals precipitated from water or eroding from highlands. Neither one of those happens terribly rapidly; rates are geologic and not human-timescale. Unfortunately, they really can't be sped up on a global scale without a truly catastrophic event as a trigger, either.
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
253. ArkWeather
8:56 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


I have never called anyone nuts on this forum . You dont even have to deny CC to be called a denier you just have to say you are unsure how much is man made ...


Quote Function did not work properly. I was refering to FunnelVortex posts #188 and #196.
Member Since: January 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 55
252. schistkicker
8:53 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting TomballTXPride:
It's always black or white.

Alarmist or denier. There's no middle ground. Not the way it works.


When one side has reams of converging data supporting its argument (including well-known and verified fields of atmospheric chemistry, physics, geology, biology, oceanography, planetary science, ecology) and the other does not, that IS kind of how it works.

See also: people who support plate tectonics vs. expanding earth; evolution vs. whatever; germ theory of disease vs. the ethers.

There are decades of measurements that indicate that the planet is warming, and that humans are a primary cause, since the other natural controls would otherwise indicate a cooling trend. On the other hand, Al Gore is a pompous guy who may or may not be a complete hypocrite. Only one of those statements has any use to a scientist.
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
251. WunderGirl12
8:52 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting Skyepony:
Caught this hole punch cloud day before yesterday. Spectacular cloud day.



WOW!!!!!I have never seen anything like that.

Wundergirl12
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
249. Skyepony (Mod)
8:49 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Caught this hole punch cloud day before yesterday. Spectacular cloud day.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
247. AtHomeInTX
8:48 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Hi everyone. I'm in the part that has no rain on radar. Lol. Not much here yet.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
246. schistkicker
8:48 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting TomballTXPride:


A supervolcanic eruption or giant meteor isn't going to cure anything.


False... the cure may certainly be worse than the disease, but if you want to overwhelm the CO2 signature, that'd be one way to do it.

Otherwise, if we want geology to do it, we're going to have to wait for a new subduction zone to form and throw up a large mountain chain at temperate latitudes, so we can let chemical weathering pull atmospheric CO2 into the eroded sediments that get buried on the margin. Of course, the timescale for that sort of process is a bit problematic for us in the opposite direction...
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
244. nymore
8:46 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I do not read every post that has ever been posted since I became a member here, but I have not seen this to be the case.I am not going to say it has never happened here before, but I find it difficult to imagine anyone being labeled as "denier" simply for stating they were unsure as to how much of the warming is anthropogenic warming. There is usually quite a bit more information given before the word "denier" is given as a label.



Quoting yonzabam:


Nope. I don't remember anyone who questioned how much global warming might be due to greenhouse gases and how much might be due to other factors, being called a denier. It's a rational viewpoint.


Really. I have never said man has no hand in it and over on Ricky's blog whenever you question any aspect of AGWT, they label you.

Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2210
243. VR46L
8:45 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting TomballTXPride:

A supervolcanic eruption or giant meteor isn't going to cure anything.

A complete sociopath would have to think that.


That would be a way worse scenario
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
240. schistkicker
8:43 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting VR46L:
I dont know , I get the distinct impression that I am labelled a denier ...tend to think its both a natural cycle and part man made and am hopeful that it may change shortly.


I think everyone except a complete sociopath would be hopeful that the system changes... unfortunately, knowing a bit of earth science and chemistry, that seems terribly unlikely to happen. Thermodynamics and the chemical patterns and existing circulation patterns don't tend toward stopping the warming we're seeing. In fact, the models indicate that if you removed the anthropogenic CO2 signal, the Earth would be tending cooler-- and yet we've several top-10 warmest years within the last two decades. That's a sign that the human-related climate signals are far outstripping the other natural processes. Yet one more reason to be pessimistic that nature will provide a miracle cure (unless you're rooting for a meteor impact or supervolcano eruption... but you'd have to be a bit of a misanthrope to want that).
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
239. VR46L
8:42 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am with you 100% on this line of thought. My shared optimism is tempered by a lack of seeing anything that could reverse the long term trends. I do no see any natural variations returning us to the pre-industrial climate on our horizon. Something catastrophic would have to happen and that may not be any better for us.


I get heart when things like the UK Met come out with what they did last night or a cool 8-14 day forecast, but I noticed that some folk poorly receive this type of information and I wonder why ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
238. Levi32
8:41 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You are going to post a link, are you not? .... I have never known you to be cruel.


If I get it up I shall certainly share.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
237. allancalderini
8:40 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Narelle is an excellent example of how helpful microwave satellite imagery is. With conventional imagery we see this:



Yes, there is a lot of deep convection, but it is difficult to determine what is underneath the CDO.

But with this recent 89 GHz pass we can see Narelle is forming an eyewall, and it has probably already formed in the mid-levels:



A forecast of rapid intensification seems more likely at this time.
Even though almost all the strongest storm in this basin don`t reach cat 5 in our scale. not even Yasi I think yasi was a upper end cat 4 from 2000 to 2013 I think only Monica had read cat 5 in our scale.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
236. Some1Has2BtheRookie
8:37 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


Why thank you. I'm doing well, enjoying the last week of break.

I've gotten a ton of work done. With any luck I intend to have some kind of a live model page up either later today or tomorrow. Fingers crossed.


You are going to post a link, are you not? .... I have never known you to be cruel.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
235. PedleyCA
8:36 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Sounds nice to me, how you doing on rainfall out there? Hurting here in Texas but I am getting drizzle again, there are some showers are storms out there but they are scattered and well away from me.


This year .12 ... Last year if I got the numbers right was 4.72 and normal is around 7.93 So, as usual a bit below, but a long ways ahead of your situation.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4929
234. entrelac
8:36 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
300 miles to the west lol. Looks like Southeast Texas and La. will get most of this rain even and maybe along the Texas coast.


NWS Austin/San Antonio seems to disagree in their last discussion and have made no updates. The Austin area will see rain.

Previous discussion... /issued 1054 am CST Tuesday Jan 8 2013/


Update...
the upper low continues to March east across northern Mexico late
this morning with overrunning rain...and scattered embedded
showers and thunderstorms over the southeast half of south central
Texas. The current scenario for today is for the upper levels of
the atmosphere to continue to destabilize...but the lack of focus
in the lower levels will result in mostly elevated showers and
thunderstorms through early evening. The warm front now extending
from the Lower Valley between McAllen and Brownsville will move
north into southeast sections of our County Warning Area during the overnight
hours tonight with an increased threat for severe thunderstorms as
the rich tropical moisture enhances low level instability in a
deeply sheared environment. The deeply sheared environment coupled
with rich moisture influx will also lend itself towards a continual
training of storms northward...with heavy rains resulting in
possible flash flooding over areas generally along and east of the
I-35 corridor tonight into early Wednesday. Current forecasts on
track and no significant adjustments made.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 234
233. Tropicsweatherpr
8:35 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Is very early but we can start to have the countdown towards the start of the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season. (Only 143 days)

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13311
232. barbamz
8:35 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Heatwave: Australia's new weather demands a new politics

Climate change clashes with the myth of a land where progress is limited only by the rate at which resources can be extracted

George Monbiot
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 8 January 2013 20.00 GMT

Extracts:

Australia is the world's largest exporter of coal – the most carbon intensive fossil fuel. It's also a profligate consumer. Australians now burn, on average, slightly more carbon per capita than the citizens of the United States, and more than twice as much as the people of the United Kingdom. Taking meaningful action on climate change would require a serious reassessment of the way life is lived there.

As James Hansen and colleagues showed in a paper published last year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the occurrence of extremely hot events has risen by a factor of around 50 by comparison to the decades before 1980. Extreme summer heat, which afflicted between 0.1% and 0.2% of the world 40 years ago, now affects 10%. They warned that "an important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951–1980 base period". An extremely hot outlier is a good description of what is roasting Australia at the moment.

Read the whole article
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 44 Comments: 5030
231. yonzabam
8:35 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting nymore:


Then why doesn't anyone ever say ocean currents may be behind the warming?

I still think we add our part but the real question now is what part.


The oceans are an absolutely gigantic heat sink, and its potential for moderating or potentiating global warming,is also huge, but very poorly understood.

If global warming has a significant effect on the oceanic gyre, this could act as a powerful positive or negative feedback, accelerating the warming, or decelerating it. It might even throw it into reverse.

However, if it did throw it into reverse, this would very probably be a short term event, lasting perhaps for a few decades. Warming would then probably resume, perhaps very strongly.

There was significant warming in the 40s, followed by cooling, and warming didn't resume again until the late 70s. Since then, it's warmed very strongly, but you can't rule out another decades long standstill.

We don't know if these fluctuations are caused by oceanic circulation, but it's a fair bet that it contributes. The current warming is stronger over land areas, compared to SSTs.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430
230. Levi32
8:35 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


How is it going, Levi? I am glad you are finding some time to post a little more often than before. I feel certain that you are going to be one of the best! I wish you great success!


Why thank you. I'm doing well, enjoying the last week of break.

I've gotten a ton of work done. With any luck I intend to have some kind of a live model page up either later today or tomorrow. Fingers crossed.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
229. Some1Has2BtheRookie
8:33 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting VR46L:
I dont know , I get the distinct impression that I am labelled a denier ...tend to think its both a natural cycle and part man made and am hopeful that it may change shortly.


I am with you 100% on this line of thought. My shared optimism is tempered by a lack of seeing anything that could reverse the long term trends. I do no see any natural variations returning us to the pre-industrial climate on our horizon. Something catastrophic would have to happen and that may not be any better for us.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
228. Some1Has2BtheRookie
8:28 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


12z GEM ensemble mean is cold but not frigid.



How is it going, Levi? I am glad you are finding some time to post a little more often than before. I feel certain that you are going to be one of the best! I wish you great success!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
227. bohonkweatherman
8:26 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good (barely-here) Afternoon. Much Nice Today. 72.9 outside and the first time in awhile that the temp outside was higher than inside (72.4) The low
this morning was 52.2 Yesterdays temps were 48.1 and 65.9 The forecast is for 73 today and tomorrow then crashing to the mid 50's (yuck)....
Sounds nice to me, how you doing on rainfall out there? Hurting here in Texas but I am getting drizzle again, there are some showers are storms out there but they are scattered and well away from me.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
226. VR46L
8:24 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
I dont know , I get the distinct impression that I am labelled a denier ...tend to think its both a natural cycle and part man made and am hopeful that it may change shortly.
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
225. hydrus
8:24 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting TomTaylor:
Mentioned what the 12z CMC Ensemble was showing yesterday. Here's the latest from the GFS & ECMWF Ensembles...

GFS Ensembles (12z) Day 15 500mb Height Anomalies




ECMWF Ensembles (00z) Day 15 2m Temp Anomalies (C)





Still too far out for any confidence in this. But at the same time, I wouldn't buy into those saying that the second half of January into February will be record cold...
The main reason I lean towards a major pattern change is Central Texas getting heavy rain...Something they cant ever seem to get lately..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
224. Levi32
8:23 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting TomTaylor:
Mentioned what the 12z CMC Ensemble was showing yesterday. Here's the latest from the GFS & ECMWF Ensembles...

GFS Ensembles (12z) Day 15 500mb Height Anomalies




ECMWF Ensembles (00z) Day 15 2m Temp Anomalies (C)





Still too far out for any confidence in this. But at the same time, I wouldn't buy into those saying that the second half of January into February will be record cold...


12z GEM ensemble mean is cold but not frigid.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
223. TomTaylor
8:21 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good (barely-here) Afternoon. Much Nice Today. 72.9 outside and the first time in awhile that the temp outside was higher than inside (72.4) The low
this morning was 52.2 Yesterdays temps were 48.1 and 65.9 The forecast is for 73 today and tomorrow then crashing to the mid 50's (yuck)....
Sure has been cold out here in the west. Supposed to be in the low 40s tonight where I am (Santa Barbara). More cold expected after a trough passes through on Thursday
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.