Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Historic heat wave brings Australia its hottest average temperature on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:27 PM GMT on January 08, 2013 +33
It's been a summer like no other in the history of Australia, where a sprawling heat wave of historical proportions is entering its second week. Monday, January 7, was the hottest day in Australian history, averaged over the entire country, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The high temperature averaged over Australia was 105°F (40.3°C), eclipsing the previous record of 104°F (40.2°C) set on 21 December 1972. Never before in 103 years of record keeping has a heat wave this intense, wide-spread, and long-lasting affected Australia. The nation's average high temperature exceeded 102°F (39°C) for five consecutive days January 2 - 6, 2013--the first time that has happened since record keeping began in 1910. Monday's temperatures extended that string by another day, to six. To put this remarkable streak in perspective, the previous record of four consecutive days with a national average high temperature in excess of 102°F (39°C) has occurred once only (1973), and only two other years have had three such days in a row--1972 and 2002 (thanks go to climate blogger Greg Laden for these stats.) Another brutally hot day is in store for Wednesday, as the high pressure region responsible for the heat wave, centered just south of the coast, will bring clear skies and a northerly flow of air over most of the country. A slight cool down will occur later in the week, as the high weakens and slides to the east of Australia. The western coast of Australia may see cloud cover and rain from Tropical Cyclone Narelle this weekend, but the rest of the country will see very little in the way of cloud cover or rain during the coming week.


Figure 1. Aerial view of fire at Copping/Forcett, Tasmania, at around 4pm on 4 Jan 2013, taken from an airplane leaving Hobart Airport. Image credit: Wikipedia.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his Monday post, Australia's extreme heat helped fuel wild fires in southeastern Tasmania that burned to the ground at least 100 homes last Friday and Saturday. The temperature peaked in the state capital of Hobart at 41.8°C (107.2°F) on Friday, the hottest temperature on record for the city, and tied for the 2nd hottest temperature ever recorded in Tasmania (records go back to 1882). The 2013 Australian heat wave extends a period of unusual warmth for the country. The last four months of 2012 were the hottest such period on record, with an average Australian maximum temperature +1.61°C, just beating the previous record of 1.60°C set in 2002. The current heat wave has not yet set a record for all-time hottest temperature in Australian history, which remains the 50.7°C (123.3°F) reading on 2 January 1960 at Oodnadatta, South Australia.


Figure 2. Departure of high temperature from average (using a base period of 1961 - 1990) for the first six days of 2013. A large area of Australia has had high temperatures more than 6°C (11°F) higher than average. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Heat
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251. WunderGirl12 8:52 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting Skyepony:
Caught this hole punch cloud day before yesterday. Spectacular cloud day.



WOW!!!!!I have never seen anything like that.

Wundergirl12
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 16 Comments: 756
252. schistkicker 8:53 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting TomballTXPride:
It's always black or white.

Alarmist or denier. There's no middle ground. Not the way it works.


When one side has reams of converging data supporting its argument (including well-known and verified fields of atmospheric chemistry, physics, geology, biology, oceanography, planetary science, ecology) and the other does not, that IS kind of how it works.

See also: people who support plate tectonics vs. expanding earth; evolution vs. whatever; germ theory of disease vs. the ethers.

There are decades of measurements that indicate that the planet is warming, and that humans are a primary cause, since the other natural controls would otherwise indicate a cooling trend. On the other hand, Al Gore is a pompous guy who may or may not be a complete hypocrite. Only one of those statements has any use to a scientist.
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
253. ArkWeather 8:56 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting VR46L:


I have never called anyone nuts on this forum . You dont even have to deny CC to be called a denier you just have to say you are unsure how much is man made ...


Quote Function did not work properly. I was refering to FunnelVortex posts #188 and #196.
Member Since: January 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
254. schistkicker 8:57 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Huh. The goal is less CO2. Right? LOL. I must not be following you...


Clearly not.
In the geologic past, the ways the planet dealt with "excess" CO2 included dissolving it in the ocean or bonding it into the structure of minerals precipitated from water or eroding from highlands. Neither one of those happens terribly rapidly; rates are geologic and not human-timescale. Unfortunately, they really can't be sped up on a global scale without a truly catastrophic event as a trigger, either.
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
255. yonzabam 8:57 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
...
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1711
256. Barefootontherocks 8:59 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16315
257. Minnemike 9:00 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
hi Grothar.. you can come out and play :)
last i checked you hold the patent for rubber and glue
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1255
258. TomTaylor 9:00 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting Levi32:


Why thank you. I'm doing well, enjoying the last week of break.

I've gotten a ton of work done. With any luck I intend to have some kind of a live model page up either later today or tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

I can't wait!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3896
259. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 9:01 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
260. hydrus 9:01 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting schistkicker:


Clearly not.
In the geologic past, the ways the planet dealt with "excess" CO2 included dissolving it in the ocean or bonding it into the structure of minerals precipitated from water or eroding from highlands. Neither one of those happens terribly rapidly; rates are geologic and not human-timescale. Unfortunately, they really can't be sped up on a global scale without a truly catastrophic event as a trigger, either.
It is hard to imagine what may have happened in the past four and a half billion years or so...Or what will happen in the next four and a half billion..Either way, I,m for less pollution and deforestation. ..Forests are the lungs of our land, purifying the air and giving fresh strength to our people..F.D.R.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14281
261. Wiiilbur 9:05 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
"The high temperature averaged over Australia was 105°F (40.3°C), eclipsing the previous record of 104°F (40.2°C) set on 21 December 1972."

Slightly misleading, wouldn't you say? A 0.18 degree F difference does not a degree F make. But if you want to make things look completely unprecedented, round 104.36 to 104 and 104.54 to 105. Voila! 0.18 degree becomes 1 degree! I wonder if that's how climate change models are calculated.

Member Since: August 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
262. barbamz 9:09 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting schistkicker:


Otherwise, if we want geology to do it, we're going to have to wait for a new subduction zone to form and throw up a large mountain chain at temperate latitudes, so we can let chemical weathering pull atmospheric CO2 into the eroded sediments that get buried on the margin. Of course, the timescale for that sort of process is a bit problematic for us in the opposite direction...


Maybe we'll hopefully find different solutions in a shorter time frame?

CO₂ as alternative carbon source
From climate sinner to useful material


Some 30 billion tons of CO₂ are emitted worldwide annually. But the greenhouse gas can no longer be considered solely as a climate damaging waste, because researchers from Bayer have discovered a way of turning carbon dioxide into a useful raw material.

Oil, natural gas and coal and biomass are the traditional sources of carbon, relied on so heavily by the chemical industry. These four substances are the starting point for around 40 basic chemicals and more than 40,000 chemical products.

The problem is that fossil raw materials will run out in the not too distant future, as they are becoming increasingly expensive and a great deal of energy is needed to process them.

Now, however, it looks like a fifth source has been found that doesn't come with all these disadvantages: the ubiquitous greenhouse gas carbon dioxide could be used as a carbon source and replace some of the significant amount of oil used to manufacture plastics. To reach this goal, Bayer has initiated several projects with partners from the industry and scientific community.

Pilot plant in Leverkusen

Most advanced is “Dream Production,” an initiative to use CO₂ as the source of one of the two components needed to produce polyurethane, a foam material that is widely applied in furniture, athletic shoes or thermal insulation. And mattresses, the first application for the new raw material. The first CO2-based polyurethanes are due to come to market from the middle of this decade.

Since the beginning of 2011, Bayer MaterialScience has been manufacturing test batches of the chemical substance needed at a pilot plant in Leverkusen, Germany. The CO₂ used in this process is sourced from a power plant operated by RWE near Cologne. It is removed from the flue gas and liquefied for transportation.

Closing the carbon cycle

“This new process was made possible by a scientific breakthrough,” explains project manager Christoph Gürtler. “We finally found the suitable catalyst experts have been searching for so long.” It enables the efficient reaction of CO₂, which is normally slow to react. The partners in the alliance are confident that the new process is also ecologically viable and will ultimately even reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

In another project called CO₂rrect that extends far into the future, Bayer is taking the next step and seeking to integrate electricity from wind mills in its efforts to make use of carbon dioxide for a double sustainability effect. One goal is to convert the CO₂ into carbon monoxide, a key basic chemical that could in turn be used to produce another component for polyurethanes. This would close the carbon cycle.

Source
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1592
263. pcola57 9:12 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 3816
264. Skyepony (Mod) 9:12 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Here's the Melbourne, FL NWS Duel-pol radar ball sitting in the parking lot. It is so huge. Way bigger looking then sitting on it's tower. That is the building on the left. Tower getting rebuilt & higher on the right. They already redid the foundation for higher winds. They were reassembling the old tower then adding a section to get it higher than the new hanger being built right next to it at the airport. I think the ball will only be down til Thursday. They got it down this morning. Click on the pic to see the series.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29293
265. Neapolitan 9:17 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting Wiiilbur:
"The high temperature averaged over Australia was 105°F (40.3°C), eclipsing the previous record of 104°F (40.2°C) set on 21 December 1972."

Slightly misleading, wouldn't you say? A 0.18 degree F difference does not a degree F make. But if you want to make things look completely unprecedented, round 104.36 to 104 and 104.54 to 105. Voila! 0.18 degree becomes 1 degree! I wonder if that's how climate change models are calculated.

It's extremely common--in fact, it's standard--to round temperatures up or down to the nearest whole degree when converting Fahrenheit readings to Celsius, especially in informal instances when greater precision is required. It's also common when rounding decimals to round down anything from 0.01 to 0.49, and round up everything from 0.5 to 0.99. So Dr. Masters followed convention. Now, had he intended to mislead as you've accused him, he would have omitted the Celsius readings altogether. But since he included them--and since he didn't say "the new record was an entire degree warmer than the old record", you can accept that as pretty clear evidence that he was, as always, on the up and up.

Thanks for asking; I'm glad to be able to provide clarification.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11153
266. pcola57 9:21 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I find it interesting that many times certain people will call NEA out and even note when he does not make a quick reply to their statements. There is as much pull technology going here as there is push technology.


I agree..
I may have sounded like I was baiting him..
It wasn't meant that way,
I've said it in 2 post reply's and I'll say it again..
I'm not taking sides here or taking Nea to task..
just speaking my views in a rationaland calm way..
I hope thats how it comes across as I mean it no other way whatsoever..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 3816
267. pcola57 9:26 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting pcola57:


I agree..
I may have sounded like I was baiting him..
It wasn't meant that way,
I've said it in 2 post reply's and I'll say it again..
I'm not taking sides here or taking Nea to task..
just speaking my views in a rationaland calm way..
I hope thats how it comes across as I mean it no other way whatsoever..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 3816
268. Some1Has2BtheRookie 9:49 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting nymore:





Really. I have never said man has no hand in it and over on Ricky's blog whenever you question any aspect of AGWT, they label you.



I do not ever recall labeling you as a "denier", nymore. I have, on several occasions, stated that you will sometimes mimmick those of the denial industry. I am still uncertain as to what your stance actually is. We have had some enlightening conversations between us. Yet, I have noticed that when we seem to be making progress in conversations towards what would possibly work in terms of mitigation, you go silent.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102
269. pcola57 9:50 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I do not ever recall labeling you as a "denier", nymore. I have, on several occasions, stated that you will sometimes mimmick those of the denial industry. I am still uncertain as to what your stance actually is. We have had some enlightening conversations between us. Yet, I have noticed that when we seem to be making progress in conversations towards what would possibly work in terms of mitigation, you go silent.


New Blog..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 3816
270. seminolesfan 9:50 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's extremely common--in fact, it's standard--to round temperatures up or down to the nearest whole degree when converting Fahrenheit readings to Celsius, especially in informal instances when greater precision is required. It's also common when rounding decimals to round down anything from 0.01 to 0.49, and round up everything from 0.5 to 0.99. So Dr. Masters followed convention. Now, had he intended to mislead as you've accused him, he would have omitted the Celsius readings altogether. But since he included them--and since he didn't say "the new record was an entire degree warmer than the old record", you can accept that as pretty clear evidence that he was, as always, on the up and up.

Thanks for asking; I'm glad to be able to provide clarification.

As usual, you seem to be glad to be able to provide snark as well.
Many people will skim over the metric version simply because it isn't as familiar. Even though not strictly misleading, the reader is led to assume a degree over the previous record. This is fact.
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1712
271. Some1Has2BtheRookie 9:54 PM GMT on January 08, 2013    
Quoting pcola57:


I agree..
I may have sounded like I was baiting him..
It wasn't meant that way,
I've said it in 2 post reply's and I'll say it again..
I'm not taking sides here or taking Nea to task..
just speaking my views in a rationaland calm way..
I hope thats how it comes across as I mean it no other way whatsoever..


Oh, no. I was not referring to you at all in this. I was merely commenting that it is both push and pull. I was not suggesting that you were baiting NEA.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102
272. washingtonian115 12:12 AM GMT on January 09, 2013    
I know for some hurricane season is like a thousand years away but the gulf stream and the loop current are very warm right now.A matter of fact all the tropical Atlantic is toasty as of right now.That is one key ingredient though.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10634
273. uncIemush 12:13 AM GMT on January 09, 2013    
Quoting washingtonian115:
I know for some hurricane season is like a thousand years away but the gulf stream and the loop current are very warm right now.A matter of fact all the tropical Atlantic is toasty as of right now.That is one key ingredient though.


washi we're next door. new blog. but global warming blog ughhhh!!!
Member Since: December 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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