Superstorm Sandy and the importance of polar orbiting satellites in forecasting

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:19 PM GMT on January 03, 2013

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On the 23rd of October, the 18th named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Sandy, was born in the Central Caribbean. As is common for late-season storms in the Caribbean, Sandy moved northwards across Cuba. The official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center issued on October 23 called for Sandy to turn to the northeast after crossing Cuba, and head into the Central Atlantic. This forecast was based on the output from five of our top six computer models, which all predicted that an upper-level low pressure system in the Central Atlantic would be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards. However, the global weather forecast model run by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) showed a disturbing possibility: the upper-level low pressure system in the Central Atlantic would not be strong enough to turn Sandy to the northeast. The hurricane would instead get caught up in the flow associated with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast, and Sandy would get slung into New York or New Jersey on October 29. While the ECMWF model was the best performing model for tracking Atlantic hurricanes in both 2010 and 2011, and had done very well again so far in 2012, the American GFS model had outperformed the ECMWF model several times during the 2012 season. NHC elected to discount the ECMWF forecast for Sandy as an outlier, and went with the forecast from the GFS and other models. By October 25, it was clear that the ECMWF model had the right idea all along. More models were now showing the turn towards New York, and the official NHC forecast now called for Sandy to make landfall in New York or New Jersey on October 29. The ECMWF model's early forecast of a track for Sandy into the Northeast was critical for allowing additional time for residents to prepare for arrival of the devastating storm. So what enabled the ECMWF model to make such an excellent forecast for Sandy, six days in advance?


Figure 1. This image uses the model output from the ECMWF experiment, showing where Sandy was predicted to be located five-days out with the normal satellite data inputs into the model (left) and without any polar-orbiting satellite data (right). Both position and intensity forecasts were affected--Sandy stays out to sea without the polar-orbiting satellite data, and the closer isobar lines encircling the storm also imply a more organized and stronger system. Image credit: NOAA.

Polar satellite data: a key to ECMWF model success
The ECWMF has a very sophisticated technique called "4-D Var" for gathering all the current weather data over the Earth and putting the data on a 3-dimensional grid that is then used as the initial "reality" of the current weather for the model to use for its forecast. The old expression, "garbage in, garbage out" is a truism for weather forecast models. If you don't properly characterize the initial state of the atmosphere, the errors you start off with will grow and give a lower-quality forecast. Data from geostationary satellites, which sit continuously at one spot above the globe, are easy to assimilate, and all the models use this data. However, the ECMWF model's superior technique used to assimilate the initial data allows inclusion of data from a large number of polar-orbiting satellites, which the other models cannot do as well. Polar-orbiting satellites orbit Earth at an altitude of 540 miles twice per day, circling from pole to pole. Their data is difficult to use, since the it is only available twice per day at each spot on the Earth, and the time of availability is different for each location. According to an email I received from Jean-Noël Thépaut, the chief of the Data Division of the Research Department at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the ECMWF model uses data from at least fourteen polar orbiting satellites: N-15, N-19, N-19, N-17 (ozone SBUV instrument only), Metop-A, AQUA, NPP (ATMS instrument only), AURA (ozone OMI data only), F-17, TRMM (TMI data), COSMIC, GRACE-A, TERRASAR, and the GPSRO data on top of METOP-GRAS. The data of most importance is the data collected in the infrared and microwave wavelengths, as well as atmospheric density data obtained via GPS radio occultation (as a polar orbiting satellite goes over the horizon, the GPS signals from the satellite get bent by Earth's atmosphere, with the amount of bending proportional to the density of the atmosphere. This GPS Radio Occultation data is gathered from eight polar orbiting satellites, and fed into both the ECMWF and GFS models.) You can find a nice summary of the impacts of polar orbiting satellite data on weather prediction models at this link.)


Figure 2. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy, for their runs that began at 00Z October 25, 2012. By this time, the GFDL model had joined the ECMWF in predicting that Sandy would make landfall in Southern New Jersey in five days. The GFS and HWRF models made good 1 - 3 day forecasts, but failed to anticipate Sandy's north-northwestward turn towards the U.S. coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

As originally reported by the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang, then confirmed in a NOAA press release, a study done by ECMWF research scientist Tony McNally found that if the ECMWF model did not have all of the data from the fourteen polar orbiting satellites, the five-day forecast of the model for Hurricane Sandy would have shown Sandy missing the Northeast U.S. This brings up a concern, since the U.S. polar orbiting satellite program is behind schedule. As explained by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central, the program is plagued by mismanagement, billions in cost overruns, and technical development challenges. The next polar orbiting satellite is not scheduled to be launched until 2017, and one or more of the existing polar orbiting satellites are expected to fail before then. This will result in a degradation of our ability to observe and predict the weather, and may result in poorer forecasts for storms like Hurricane Sandy. Given that the ECMWF model used data from fourteen polar orbiting satellites, the failure of just one satellite may not have made a significant difference in its forecast for Sandy. But if we lose several of these key satellites by 2017, our hurricane forecasts in 2017 may be worse than they were in 2012. To figure out how to cope with the loss of satellite-derived data, NOAA is conducting a Gap Risk Study that seeks ideas from researchers and the public on how NOAA can preserve the quality of its weather model forecasts in the event of the failure of one or more polar orbiting satellites in the coming years.


Figure 3. A tanker rests on the southern shore after being swept onto land by a storm surge due to Superstorm Sandy, Friday, Nov. 2, 2012, in the Staten Island borough of New York. (AP Photo/ John Minchillo)

Links
Eric Berger of the Houston Chronicle has an interview with Jean-Noël Thépaut, chief of the Data Division of the Research Department at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, on why the European model did so well with Hurricane Sandy.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:



this year ??? this year this started dont you mean last year?

I think we all knew what allancalderini meant. Blog Police back on patrol, Hey Taz!!
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Post 118...Aussie

doesn't look like... there are Mexican cities nearby too though...TWC doesn't care

I've seen forecasts of 8-10inches of snow for west Texas. A line from Lubbock, San Angelo and maybe even down to San Antonio could get that, and it's travelling east so more of Texas to get this winter storm.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting allancalderini:
Gfs did incredible this year the only important thing that didn`t nail was Sandy.



this year ??? this year this started dont you mean last year?
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Post 118...Aussie

doesn't look like... there are Mexican cities nearby too though...TWC doesn't care
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting allancalderini:
Gfs did incredible this year the only important thing that didn`t nail was Sandy.


and a terrible fail with Debby...for the European

i thought it was the GFS that screw it up..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting allancalderini:
Gfs did incredible this year the only important thing that didn`t nail was Sandy.

It nailed Debby when every other model was sending her towards Texas.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
For 2012


NHC track skill was the highest in history for all periods except 120 hours:






Skill for the GFS was higher than the ECMWF for all hours except 120:




After 4 years of the ECMWF holding first place at 48 hours, GFS went to the lead in 2012:






Slides are from the NHC Presentation at the 2012 NCEP Model Review Meeting CAUTION: 61 MB Powerpoint Presentation that has to be downloaded to your computer
Gfs did incredible this year the only important thing that didn`t nail was Sandy.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


comparison values between the RSMC and PAGASA.

Wouldn't it be easier to combined it in the one advisory?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting PedleyCA:


Bonaire?

Nope, just good air management
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
139. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:

So you decided to write 2 bulletins for the same system but with different names??
O.K......!!!!


comparison values between the RSMC and PAGASA.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46160
Quoting AussieStorm:
Inside my lounge-room it's 24C(75.2F) outside the back door it's 36C(96.8F) and no Air conditioner is being used.


Bonaire?
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Inside my lounge-room it's 24C(75.2F) outside the back door it's 36C(96.8F)(Shade temp) and no Air conditioner is being used.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


ya, I know.

just got tired of writing Sonamu (Auring) in more than one bulletin.

So you decided to write 2 bulletins for the same system but with different names??
O.K......!!!!
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Thought I would share this joke

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
134. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:


TROPICAL STORM SONAMU and TROPICAL STORM AURING are the same system.


ya, I know.

just got tired of writing Sonamu (Auring) in more than one bulletin.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46160
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


oh, ya. they re-edited the bulletin.

I thought it was strange to have Signal #1 and 2 up for the same area.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
132. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:


There is no more Signal 2 warning for Southern Palawan, Which will be dropped very soon as Auring is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).


oh, ya. they re-edited the bulletin.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46160
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (T1301)
12:00 PM JST January 4 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sonamu (1002 hPa) located at 8.4N 115.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 7.2N 111.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
45 HRS: 6.8N 108.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 6.5N 107.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea


TROPICAL STORM SONAMU and TROPICAL STORM AURING are the same system.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring):

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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL STORM AURING
11:00 AM PhST January 4 2013
==============================

Tropical Storm "AURING" has maintained its course as it moves away from the country

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Auring [997 hPa] located at 8.5N 115.8E or 330 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

SignalWarning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Southern Palawan


Signal Warning #1
------------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Southern Palawan

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signal are now lowered elsewhere.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon and the western seaboards of southern Luzon due to the Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.


There is no more Signal 2 warning for Southern Palawan, Signal #1 will be dropped very soon as Auring is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
128. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (T1301)
12:00 PM JST January 4 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sonamu (1002 hPa) located at 8.4N 115.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 7.2N 111.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
45 HRS: 6.8N 108.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 6.5N 107.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46160
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126. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL STORM AURING
11:00 AM PhST January 4 2013
==============================

Tropical Storm "AURING" has maintained its course as it moves away from the country

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Auring [997 hPa] located at 8.5N 115.8E or 330 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Southern Palawan

Signal Warning #1
------------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Southern Palawan

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signal are now lowered elsewhere.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon and the western seaboards of southern Luzon due to the Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46160
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hobart Tasmania just passed it's all time record for January which was set back on January 4th 1976 which was 40.8°C(105.4°F). The new record is now 40.9°C(105.6°F). There is a chance that temp could go a little higher.


Top temp reached was 41.3°C or 106.3°F)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Cyclone Dumile from NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory:

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Temps in most parts of South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria are well above ave today with Adelaide, South Australia at 42.8*C(109*F), Port Augusta, South Australia 45.4*C(113.7*F), Mildura, Victoria 41.8*C(107.2*F), Melbourne AP, Victoria 39.6*C(103.3*F) and Hobart Tasmania 41.3*C(1063*F).
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
'Auring' out today, another cyclone looming



Tropical storm "Auring" made landfall in the southern tip of Palawan on Friday morning, state weather bureau PAGASA said.

PAGASA said public storm warning signal no. 2 remains hoisted over southern Palawan, while the rest of the province is under signal no. 1.

Auring has maintained its strength, still packing maximum winds of 65 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.

As of 5 a.m., it was located 220 kilometers southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan.

Auring, which had triggered flooding in some parts of northern Mindanao, was moving west at 28 kph.

PAGASA forecaster Gener Quitlong said with this speed and direction, Auring will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility afternoon today.

"Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone," PAGASA said.

Fishing boats and other small sea crafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon and the western seaboards of southern Luzon due to the northeast monsoon (amihan).

Estimated rainfall is 10 to 20 millimeters per hour (heavy - intense) within the storm's 300-km diameter.

New cyclone

A new cluster of clouds over the Pacific Ocean is expected to intensify into a low pressure area (LPA) and possibly a cyclone, Quitlong said.

The cluster of clouds, according to Quitlong, may enter PAR as early as Saturday.

The potential cyclone is forecast to hit typhoon-battered Mindanao again. Quitlong explained that the current orientation of the sun has created conditions favorable to the formation of cyclones in the waters off the region. "If [the motion it], in the east of Mindanao [hit it]. Kasi strong breeze so not being able to lift these clouds it," Quitlong said.

"At Central, we are influenced breeze, cold sea, cold air, thus shaping the LPA."
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
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@RaleighWx
New Euro weeklies tonight show colder pattern by week 3/4 which would be 1/20 into early February. #weather
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32527
Latest drought map from DOC/NOAA
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting guygee:
This is a fascinating and well-written blog entry by Jeff Masters. One big part of the story is the comparison between the ECMWF and the rest of the pack.




A very interesting post. Thanks for sharing.

Btw, is TWC going to name this Texas Winter Storm??
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
This is a fascinating and well-written blog entry by Jeff Masters. One big part of the story is the comparison between the ECMWF and the rest of the pack. Another very interesting facet is the illustration of how important the "ground truth" measurements are to the initial conditions model and the model output at increasingly longer time spans.

When it comes time to make the point in this blog, however, Dr. Masters strays off-base with this comment:

Dr. Jeff Masters:

This brings up a concern, since the U.S. polar orbiting satellite program is behind schedule. As explained by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central, the program is plagued by mismanagement, billions in cost overruns, and technical development challenges.


Contrast this with the findings of over 100 experts that contributed to the American Meteorological Society Policy Workshop Report May 2012, Earth Observations, Science, and Services for the 21st Century (pdf document download),


The vast majority of NASA's Earth observing satellites now in orbit are past the end of their design lifetimes. Despite being well engineered and vigorously maintained, aging satellites are at increased risk of experiencing problems and failures. A notable discon-
nect exists between the aging satellite fleet and the Federal funds needed to maintain and replace it (Fig. 2). This indicates a need to expand Federal funding overall, to increase the priority of Earth OSS among competing Federal projects, to set Earth OSS priorities in the face of constrained satellite budgets, or, perhaps most likely, a combination of all three approaches.



In line with the above observations is a 2012 report by the National Research Council, Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Midterm Assessment of NASA's Implementation of the Decadal Survey(available here) that notes (pg 43-44):


The budget history of NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD), translated into constant fiscal year (FY) 2006 dollars (the year the survey was completed), illustrates the difficulty in realizing the recommendations of the decadal survey (Figure 3.1). From FY1996 through FY2001 the budget remained approximately constant at about $2 billion. Beginning in FY2002, the budget declined steadily, reaching a minimum of about $1.3 billion in FY2007, a 46 percent decrease. The 2007 survey recommended that the NASA Earth science budget be returned to the FY2002 level of $2 billion in annual funding (in FY2006 dollars) to support the missions and related programs set forth in the survey.2 The favorable response to the decadal survey by the administration and Congress and passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 reversed this decline. However, budget stalemates in FY2010 and FY2011 and an austere forward-looking FY2012 request have resulted in ESD being funded at less than the $1.5 billion level for the foreseeable future, far below what the survey recommended (see Figure 3.1). This failure to restore the Earth science budget to a $2 billion (FY2006) level, as recommended by the survey, is the primary reason for the inability of NASA to realize the mission launch cadence recommended by the survey.



The same report motivated this New York Times article by Heidi Cullen, a scientist at Climate Central(!), that starts out..."Our ability to forecast the weather is in big trouble"...It is not a failure in planning or mismanagement that is cited as the fundamental problem, it is the austerity budget axe chopping into funding for new satellite projects. As our ability to observe the Earth from space steadily dwindles it is our heads on the chopping block.
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Hobart Tasmania just passed it's all time record for January which was set back on January 4th 1976 which was 40.8°C(105.4°F). The new record is now 40.9°C(105.6°F). There is a chance that temp could go a little higher.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:
or the 'blog police' posts ;)

Yeah, i forgot those. lol
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Thanks for the words guys. I know I'll be good when the results come out :)
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Quoting caneswatch:
I know this is not weather related but I'd like to share something:

Last month, I visited a gastrointestinal doctor, who had told me that my father had a gene called Lynch's Syndrome, which is the gene that gives you a 90% chance of acquiring colon cancer, my father had colon cancer last year, and survived, but unfortunately it took the life of my grandmother almost 11 years ago, who also had this gene.

They had me scheduled to undergo a colonoscopy and a genetic test to see if I had LS. I have a strong hunch that due to me being mostly made up of my mom's family genetics, I do not have LS, but I must get the test done.

Today, I underwent my first colonoscopy in nearly 6 years, and as soon as I woke up from my anesthetic state, the same doctor told me I didn't have any polyps in my colon. It's the first step of great news, but when I get my genetic test done in 2 1/2 weeks, I hope to receive more great news.


You'll be fine, C.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32527
Canes...You will be fine. I had the same thing and got a 10-year pass.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

But if you take out all of Taz's one word posts, like POOF, it will be down to less that 1000. LOL

or the 'blog police' posts ;)
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 863
Quoting caneswatch:
I know this is not weather related but I'd like to share something:

Last month, I visited a gastrointestinal doctor, who had told me that my father had a gene called Lynch's Syndrome, which is the gene that gives you a 90% chance of acquiring colon cancer, my father had colon cancer last year, and survived, but unfortunately it took the life of my grandmother almost 11 years ago, who also had this gene.

They had me scheduled to undergo a colonoscopy and a genetic test to see if I had LS. I have a strong hunch that due to me being mostly made up of my mom's family genetics, I do not have LS, but I must get the test done.

Today, I underwent my first colonoscopy in nearly 6 years, and as soon as I woke up from my anesthetic state, the same doctor told me I didn't have any polyps in my colon. It's the first step of great news, but when I get my genetic test done in 2 1/2 weeks, I hope to receive more great news.



I'm sure it'll be fine.
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109. BtnTx
Quoting Patrap:
Ralph ?
I wonder what happened to the video I was going to watch?
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I know this is not weather related but I'd like to share something:

Last month, I visited a gastrointestinal doctor, who had told me that my father had a gene called Lynch's Syndrome, which is the gene that gives you a 90% chance of acquiring colon cancer, my father had colon cancer last year, and survived, but unfortunately it took the life of my grandmother almost 11 years ago, who also had this gene.

They had me scheduled to undergo a colonoscopy and a genetic test to see if I had LS. I have a strong hunch that due to me being mostly made up of my mom's family genetics, I do not have LS, but I must get the test done.

Today, I underwent my first colonoscopy in nearly 6 years, and as soon as I woke up from my anesthetic state, the same doctor told me I didn't have any polyps in my colon. It's the first step of great news, but when I get my genetic test done in 2 1/2 weeks, I hope to receive more great news.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


LargoFl is catching up on you Taz as far as # of posts. You are soon to lose your title.

But if you take out all of Taz's one word posts, like POOF, it will be down to less that 1000. LOL
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
106. Skyepony (Mod)
Great blog. Even with GFS, satellite input has been shown to be the more the better.

Table 2 here is good for comparing models..CMC GEM & UKMET are also 4-D Var models. Neither have as high a vertical level so you can't use as much polar sat data & such.. CMC GEM comes close. CMC had Sandy curving back toward the NE United States on the 00Z run 10/25 too. Had Sandy slightly more north & about 12hrs too slow. Not sure what the UKMET was calling for that run.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hmmmm we could be headng in too a strong LA NINA by hurricane season



LargoFl is catching up on you Taz as far as # of posts. You are soon to lose your title.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32527
Quoting wxgeek723:
Let's see if I can't try and make this a regular thing.

Stuff Wundergrounders Never Say - Post 130103

"I sure hope we have a quiet hurricane season."


I have one!

'Your post made me throw out everything I passionately believed in about GW. I now accept your view'

That would go from either side of course!
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 863
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's also shark season here. Yesterday the very popular Manly beach was closed twice by a shark sighting, about 1000 people were in the water and made a hasty exit. Last week, at Bondi and the beaches further south like Coogee and Maroubra were closed due to sharks close to shore. In fact at Bondi a Surf Life saver's board was hit very solidly by a great white shark. Link


I saw the footage of Bondi Beach, yikes. I know quite a lot of people here from the UK 'moving' down there. One just got down there NYD and has been showing himself at Bondi Beach...it couldn't help but come to mind the recent footage! Sure seems like a lot of people from Ireland and UK heading down there cause of jobs and wages. I'm over 30, so no hope for an oldie like me LOL Though, I'd rather the cold and rain than sharks, poisonous spiders and snakes :P Though the surf and photography opps would surely be fab!
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 863
hmmmm we could be headng in too a strong LA NINA by hurricane season

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Quoting bappit:
Thanks Dr. M for the interesting topic for this blog, but I'm not sure you seal the deal on the point you try to make.

For the sake of example, you say:

"The ECMWF model's early forecast of a track for Sandy into the Northeast was critical for allowing additional time for residents to prepare for arrival of the devastating storm."

How so? The ECMWF was discounted by the NWS. Who acted on the basis of that model run? How could it be called critical in a practical sense? More to the point, say that all the models were in agreement for 6 days out. Would we act on [them six days in advance]?

It undoubtedly is good for the accuracy of the models at long time scales to get the polar satellite data, but will the greater accuracy of the models translate into anything tangible?

We had people not acting on good information 1 or 2 days in advance. Why would they pay attention to data for 6 days out?
Ivan was forecast to impact NOLA. And missed. Which IMO led a lot of residents to downplay the danger that Katrina posed. The more accurate mid-term forecasts get, the less likely people will discount them over time.
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this will likey be a vary busy season
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Quoting wxgeek723:
Let's see if I can't try and make this a regular thing.

Stuff Wundergrounders Never Say - Post 130103

"I sure hope we have a quiet hurricane season."




dont get your hops up
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Freezing Fog
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Freezing Fog