Superstorm Sandy and the importance of polar orbiting satellites in forecasting

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:19 PM GMT on January 03, 2013

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On the 23rd of October, the 18th named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Sandy, was born in the Central Caribbean. As is common for late-season storms in the Caribbean, Sandy moved northwards across Cuba. The official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center issued on October 23 called for Sandy to turn to the northeast after crossing Cuba, and head into the Central Atlantic. This forecast was based on the output from five of our top six computer models, which all predicted that an upper-level low pressure system in the Central Atlantic would be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards. However, the global weather forecast model run by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) showed a disturbing possibility: the upper-level low pressure system in the Central Atlantic would not be strong enough to turn Sandy to the northeast. The hurricane would instead get caught up in the flow associated with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast, and Sandy would get slung into New York or New Jersey on October 29. While the ECMWF model was the best performing model for tracking Atlantic hurricanes in both 2010 and 2011, and had done very well again so far in 2012, the American GFS model had outperformed the ECMWF model several times during the 2012 season. NHC elected to discount the ECMWF forecast for Sandy as an outlier, and went with the forecast from the GFS and other models. By October 25, it was clear that the ECMWF model had the right idea all along. More models were now showing the turn towards New York, and the official NHC forecast now called for Sandy to make landfall in New York or New Jersey on October 29. The ECMWF model's early forecast of a track for Sandy into the Northeast was critical for allowing additional time for residents to prepare for arrival of the devastating storm. So what enabled the ECMWF model to make such an excellent forecast for Sandy, six days in advance?


Figure 1. This image uses the model output from the ECMWF experiment, showing where Sandy was predicted to be located five-days out with the normal satellite data inputs into the model (left) and without any polar-orbiting satellite data (right). Both position and intensity forecasts were affected--Sandy stays out to sea without the polar-orbiting satellite data, and the closer isobar lines encircling the storm also imply a more organized and stronger system. Image credit: NOAA.

Polar satellite data: a key to ECMWF model success
The ECWMF has a very sophisticated technique called "4-D Var" for gathering all the current weather data over the Earth and putting the data on a 3-dimensional grid that is then used as the initial "reality" of the current weather for the model to use for its forecast. The old expression, "garbage in, garbage out" is a truism for weather forecast models. If you don't properly characterize the initial state of the atmosphere, the errors you start off with will grow and give a lower-quality forecast. Data from geostationary satellites, which sit continuously at one spot above the globe, are easy to assimilate, and all the models use this data. However, the ECMWF model's superior technique used to assimilate the initial data allows inclusion of data from a large number of polar-orbiting satellites, which the other models cannot do as well. Polar-orbiting satellites orbit Earth at an altitude of 540 miles twice per day, circling from pole to pole. Their data is difficult to use, since the it is only available twice per day at each spot on the Earth, and the time of availability is different for each location. According to an email I received from Jean-Noël Thépaut, the chief of the Data Division of the Research Department at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the ECMWF model uses data from at least fourteen polar orbiting satellites: N-15, N-19, N-19, N-17 (ozone SBUV instrument only), Metop-A, AQUA, NPP (ATMS instrument only), AURA (ozone OMI data only), F-17, TRMM (TMI data), COSMIC, GRACE-A, TERRASAR, and the GPSRO data on top of METOP-GRAS. The data of most importance is the data collected in the infrared and microwave wavelengths, as well as atmospheric density data obtained via GPS radio occultation (as a polar orbiting satellite goes over the horizon, the GPS signals from the satellite get bent by Earth's atmosphere, with the amount of bending proportional to the density of the atmosphere. This GPS Radio Occultation data is gathered from eight polar orbiting satellites, and fed into both the ECMWF and GFS models.) You can find a nice summary of the impacts of polar orbiting satellite data on weather prediction models at this link.)


Figure 2. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy, for their runs that began at 00Z October 25, 2012. By this time, the GFDL model had joined the ECMWF in predicting that Sandy would make landfall in Southern New Jersey in five days. The GFS and HWRF models made good 1 - 3 day forecasts, but failed to anticipate Sandy's north-northwestward turn towards the U.S. coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

As originally reported by the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang, then confirmed in a NOAA press release, a study done by ECMWF research scientist Tony McNally found that if the ECMWF model did not have all of the data from the fourteen polar orbiting satellites, the five-day forecast of the model for Hurricane Sandy would have shown Sandy missing the Northeast U.S. This brings up a concern, since the U.S. polar orbiting satellite program is behind schedule. As explained by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central, the program is plagued by mismanagement, billions in cost overruns, and technical development challenges. The next polar orbiting satellite is not scheduled to be launched until 2017, and one or more of the existing polar orbiting satellites are expected to fail before then. This will result in a degradation of our ability to observe and predict the weather, and may result in poorer forecasts for storms like Hurricane Sandy. Given that the ECMWF model used data from fourteen polar orbiting satellites, the failure of just one satellite may not have made a significant difference in its forecast for Sandy. But if we lose several of these key satellites by 2017, our hurricane forecasts in 2017 may be worse than they were in 2012. To figure out how to cope with the loss of satellite-derived data, NOAA is conducting a Gap Risk Study that seeks ideas from researchers and the public on how NOAA can preserve the quality of its weather model forecasts in the event of the failure of one or more polar orbiting satellites in the coming years.


Figure 3. A tanker rests on the southern shore after being swept onto land by a storm surge due to Superstorm Sandy, Friday, Nov. 2, 2012, in the Staten Island borough of New York. (AP Photo/ John Minchillo)

Links
Eric Berger of the Houston Chronicle has an interview with Jean-Noël Thépaut, chief of the Data Division of the Research Department at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, on why the European model did so well with Hurricane Sandy.

Jeff Masters

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Major 7.5 Earthquake off the coast of Alaska:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48855
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48855
COLD IN TEXAS ALRIGHT..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48855
BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 4
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
158 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

BCZ220-210-922-912-921-911-110-AKZ026>029-023-024 -019>022-
025-051258-
/O.CAN.PAAQ.TS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER
ALASKA/LOCATED 80 MILES SE OF YAKUTAT/
158 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING IS CANCELED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER ALASKA/LOCATED
80 MILES SE OF YAKUTAT/...

A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED BY THIS EVENT BUT DOES NOT POSE A THREAT
TO THESE AREAS. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES.
THE DECISION TO RE-OCCUPY HAZARD ZONES MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
BULLETIN FOR THIS REGION. REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48855
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48855
Quoting nwrepublic:
Big earthquake west of craig, alaska. Felt it all the way up here in juneau
wow stay safe up there, hope no damage in your area
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48855
Rain chances now up to 70% for tomorrow Tampa Bay..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48855
Quoting miken62:
It's sickening to hear some people still refer to Sandy as "Superstorm Sandy"
She was a Hurricane right to the coast embedded in a larger storm ......I know it's only technical ...but it just sounds so foolish !
well under the rules at the time, the NWS has NO Hurricane designation and warnings, only the NHC has that..so once the NHC gave over to the NWS for warnings, all the NWS could warn about was a severe storm..now I have read they are looking over that and MAY change the rules for the future..but officially..in GOVT..rules are rules and must be followed..nothing stupid nor foolish about that.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48855
looks like its small tsunami hope the people in craig didn’t get rattled too hard. Goodnight

WEAK51 PAAQ 051017
TSUAK1

BULLETIN
PUBLIC TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
117 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

THE MAGNITUDE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO 7.5 AND A SMALL TSUNAMI
HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT PORT ALEXANDER, ALASKA.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...


WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/WATCHES - UPDATED
-------------------------------------
TSUNAMI WARNING IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE
NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE
FAIRWEATHER ALASKA/LOCATED 80 MILES SE OF YAKUTAT/


CANCELLATIONS
-------------
* THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS CANCELED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA
BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH
COLUMBIA

* THE TSUNAMI WARNING IS CANCELED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
ALASKA FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER ALASKA/LOCATED 80 MILES SE OF
YAKUTAT/ TO CAPE SUCKLING ALASKA/LOCATED 75 MILES SE OF
CORDOVA/

* THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS CANCELED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
ALASKA FROM CAPE SUCKLING ALASKA/LOCATED 75 MILES SE OF
CORDOVA/ TO KENNEDY ENTRANCE ALASKA/LOCATED 40 MILES SW OF
HOMER/


IMPACTS FOR TSUNAMI WARNING AREAS
---------------------------------
* A TSUNAMI WITH SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION OF LAND IS
EXPECTED.

* WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING ACCOMPANIED BY POWERFUL
CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AND MAY CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER
TSUNAMI ARRIVAL.

* THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS - UPDATED
-----------------------------
* IF YOU ARE IN A WARNING AREA - MOVE INLAND TO HIGHER GROUND.

* BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS.

* DO NOT GO TO THE COAST TO OBSERVE THE TSUNAMI.

* DO NOT RETURN TO THE COAST UNTIL LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS
INDICATE IT IS SAFE TO DO SO.


FORECASTS AND/OR OBSERVATIONS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY
-------------------------------------------------
FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST OBSERVED
START OF TSUNAMI MAX TSUNAMI TSUNAMI
SITE OF TSUNAMI DURATION HEIGHT HEIGHT
---- ---------- -------- ------------- -------

* BRITISH COLUMBIA
LANGARA 0129 PST JAN 5

* ALASKA
SITKA 0043 AKST JAN 5
ELFIN COVE 0055 AKST JAN 5
CRAIG 0115 AKST JAN 5

FORECAST MAX TSUNAMI HEIGHT IS THE HIGHEST EXPECTED WATER LEVEL
ABOVE THE TIDE.

FORECAST TSUNAMI DURATION IS THE APPROXIMATE LENGTH OF TIME WHICH
THE TSUNAMI MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS CURRENTS AND WAVE ACTIVITY.

OBSERVED TSUNAMI HEIGHT IS THE HIGHEST WATER LEVEL ABOVE THE
TIDE LEVEL AT THE TIME OF MEASUREMENT.


ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY - UPDATED
------------------------------------------------- ----
TIME OBSERVED MAX
SITE OF MEASUREMENT TSUNAMI HEIGHT
---------------------------- --------------- --------------
PORT ALEXANDER AK 1007 UTC 01-05 00.5FT

HEIGHT - OBSERVED MAX TSUNAMI HEIGHT IS THE WATER LEVEL ABOVE THE
TIDE LEVEL AT THE TIME OF MEASUREMENT.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 7.5
* ORIGIN TIME 2358 AKST JAN 04 2013
0058 PST JAN 05 2013
0858 UTC JAN 05 2013
* COORDINATES 55.3 NORTH 134.9 WEST
* DEPTH 3 MILES
* LOCATION 95 MILES NW OF DIXON ENTRANCE ALASKA
210 MILES S OF JUNEAU ALASKA


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's sickening to hear some people still refer to Sandy as "Superstorm Sandy"
She was a Hurricane right to the coast embedded in a larger storm ......I know it's only technical ...but it just sounds so foolish !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
486. vanwx
Sky,
That 434 post is way too mesmerizing.8) But if you watch it long enough you can see its a very low frequency vibration, kind of like ringing a bell except it's a sphere of jello with two tide sources. just wow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
485. vanwx
Quoting Levi32:


Well, last winter, the GEM (CMC) ensemble mean creamed the GFS ensemble mean week after week when the GFS tried to bring cold into the east that never came. We'll see how they dance the rest of this winter.


Just like last year. But it won't be good for the rig rescue that I think should happen on the 12th on the coast of Alaska there. Ah well.
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484. whitewabit (Mod)
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0906Z 05 JAN 2013

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0858Z 05 JAN 2013
COORDINATES - 55.3 NORTH 134.9 WEST
DEPTH - 5 KM
LOCATION - SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
MAGNITUDE - 7.7

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HAS
ISSUED A REGIONAL WARNING FOR COASTS LOCATED NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE.
THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT DOES NOT
EXPECT A WIDER THREAT TO OCCUR.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

... A Tsunami Warning is now in effect which includes the
coastal areas of British Columbia and Alaska from the north
tip of Vancouver Island British Columbia to Cape Suckling
Alaska/located 75 miles se of Cordova/...

If you are located in this coastal area... move inland
to higher ground.

Tsunami warnings mean that a tsunami with significant widespread
inundation is expected or is already occurring. Tsunamis are
a series of waves dangerous many hours after initial arrival
time. The first wave may not be the largest.

At 1158 PM Alaska Standard time on January 4 an earthquake with
preliminary magnitude 7.7 occurred 90 miles northwest of
Dixon Entrance Alaska.

Estimated tsunami start times for selected sites are...

Langara British Columbia 129 am PST January 5
Sitka Alaska 1245 am akst January 5
Elfin Cove Alaska 1256 am akst January 5
Craig Alaska 113 am akst January 5
Yakutat Alaska 145 am akst January 5

The Tsunami Warning will remain in effect until further notice.
Refer to the internet site wcatwc.Arh.NOAA.Gov for more information.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Big earthquake west of craig, alaska. Felt it all the way up here in juneau
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His take on the possible cold coming up. And I actually remember that cold! THAT was crazy cold! Lol

I saw the model data. Its possible, but two weeks out, the models could easily flip-flop and the Arctic air could stay in the Plains north of Texas. That forecasted pattern is similar to the Siberian Express of Dec '89 that broke pipes all across SETX and brought 12 degrees to Beaumont. I think its too far out, but I will be monitoring guaranteed. Patrick Vaughn, 12 News HD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evenin, Mornin, Hi all. :)

A local take on next weeks storm...

Patrick Vaughn, 12 News HD A Slight Risk of severe weather is possible on Wednesday IF the European Model is right. Much can change between now and then. It appears that this system will not be as strong as the one that affect SETX on Christmas. However, at this point, it appears that isolated occurrences of wind damage and hail is possible - not everyone will be affected and this will not be the storm of the century.



KBMT-12 Incidentally, the above graphic is the SWEAT Index which is an acronym for Severe WEATher Index. Calculated values at 400 are the threshold for severe weather. The GFS Model calculates about 425 and the European calculates about 500. Christmas day, the level was at 498. Patrick Vaughn, 12 News HD
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Good Morning folks!!..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48855
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 AM EST SAT JAN 5 2013

FLZ063-066-067-070-071-073-075-051400-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FG.Y.0003.130105T0739Z-130105T1400Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
INLAND MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...PAHOKEE...
SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...WELLINGTON...IMMOKALEE
239 AM EST SAT JAN 5 2013

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO SUDDEN
FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW
DOWN...USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE
AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$
KONARIK
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48855
Quoting hydrus:
Quoting hydrus:
hopefully I'll get some good rain out of that Hydrus..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48855
Quoting TomTaylor:
Please include the GFS and GEM ensemble NH 500mb anomalies on your site when you update your model graphics! Anything else with ensembles would be great as well because as you get further out in time individual runs from the GFS or CMC become increasingly useless. Ensembles are much more skillful beyond 5 days and just about the only thing worth looking at beyond a week's time. Thanks mate


Oh you can bet on it. Ensembles are the hardest to code and also the most versatile, so I'm doubly inspired to create products with them.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Quoting txjac:


You're a truly nice kid ...thanks for being around

I meant no disrespect when I said kid.


If I *****ed about something like that, I would be a kid, now wouldn't I?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
474. txjac
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm only 21. It'll catch up to me someday, I assure you.


You're a truly nice kid ...thanks for being around

I meant no disrespect when I said kid.
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Quoting txjac:


You are a strange man there Mr Kori...lol ...when I was younger I used to love to live life on the edge though too


I'm only 21. It'll catch up to me someday, I assure you.
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Quoting Levi32:
Interesting battle going on between the GFS and GEM (CMC) ensembles right now for week 2. Both agree a monster ridge builds into Alaska by Day 9. However, the GFS ensemble just keeps it there for the next several days, not really evolving a whole lot, while the GEM ensemble breaks the ridge off into a closed blocking high that retrogrades over Siberia, which these amplified Alaskan ridges do tend to do, by the way.

The reason this matters is that to the east of this AK ridge, a big arctic attack plunges into the western-central United States during this time. The GFS solution through Day 16 seems to allow the arctic attack to work its way into the eastern U.S. as well, while the GEM solution with the AK ridge breaking off would allow the arctic air in the U.S. to gradually ride northeastward and out of the country without severely attacking the eastern third of the lower 48.

Day 13 500mb Height and Anomaly comparison: GFS (left), GEM (right): Click for larger size

Please include the GFS and GEM ensemble NH 500mb anomalies on your site when you update your model graphics! Anything else with ensembles would be great as well because as you get further out in time individual runs from the GFS or CMC become increasingly useless. Ensembles are much more skillful beyond 5 days and just about the only thing worth looking at beyond a week's time. Thanks mate
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
471. txjac
Quoting KoritheMan:


I actually didn't sleep through the whole thing, just the worst of it. Much to my chagrin. I wanted to risk being impaled by a flying tree limb.


You are a strange man there Mr Kori...lol ...when I was younger I used to love to live life on the edge though too
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Quoting txjac:


Makes me laugh to hear that ...my dad slept through a tornado that we went through in Ohio ...cant remember the year ...I sleep pretty hard myself


I actually didn't sleep through the whole thing, just the worst of it. Much to my chagrin. I wanted to risk being impaled by a flying tree limb.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
469. txjac
Quoting KoritheMan:


My uncle slept through Andrew in southeast Louisiana, and I slept through Isaac. It runs in the family. ;)


Makes me laugh to hear that ...my dad slept through a tornado that we went through in Ohio ...cant remember the year ...I sleep pretty hard myself

That's why I have a dog!
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Quoting txjac:
Looks like rain is going to miss me for the time being..was really wishing for some rain this evening ...nothing better than going to sleep with rain hitting the roof ...I find it so soothing


My uncle slept through Andrew in southeast Louisiana, and I slept through Isaac. It runs in the family. ;)
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467. txjac
Looks like rain is going to miss me for the time being..was really wishing for some rain this evening ...nothing better than going to sleep with rain hitting the roof ...I find it so soothing
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Quoting txjac:


Its a global weather blog ...not just a US blog.
Its great to hear about world wide weather

It's Aussie's region that is sufferning cyclones this time of year. He post US related weather and listens to the rest of us when it's our time of the year for hurricanes




thats ture
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Quoting Tazmanian:



ture


AussieStorm talks nothing about the USA weather 95% of the time he comes herehe talks about his own weather and nevere any thing about the USA weather so talk about off topic


Well, here comes another Australian post :P

------------------------------------------------- ----

The GFS sure winds up a near-hurricane in a hurry coming out of the Indonesian islands into northern Australia in about 3 days. This is stronger than its last run.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
464. txjac
Quoting Tazmanian:



ture


AussieStorm talks nothing about the USA weather 95% of the time he comes herehe talks about his own weather and nevere any thing about the USA weather so talk about off topic


Its a global weather blog ...not just a US blog.
Its great to hear about world wide weather

It's Aussie's region that is sufferning cyclones this time of year. He post US related weather and listens to the rest of us when it's our time of the year for hurricanes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I recognize that it was a genuine attempt at lighthearted humor. But that's not the point. You have no right to complain when someone calls your posts off topic when you make no attempt to stop policing people here for the same thing. We call that hypocrisy, and it is exceedingly annoying. Most people don't like it. I am one of them, as are I assume 95% of the people in this world.

It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.



ture


AussieStorm talks nothing about the USA weather 95% of the time he comes herehe talks about his own weather and nevere any thing about the USA weather so talk about off topic
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Quoting Tazmanian:




that was a long time




was trying too bring a little joy too the blog not evere day some one steals a golf chart and trys too drive it some where with champagne on it lol


I recognize that it was a genuine attempt at lighthearted humor. But that's not the point. You have no right to complain when someone calls your posts off topic when you make no attempt to stop policing people here for the same thing. We call that hypocrisy, and it is exceedingly annoying. Most people don't like it. I am one of them, as are I assume 95% of the people in this world.

It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Taz, I find it hilarious that you ***** about someone pointing out how your posts are clearly off topic, but at the same time you never hesitate to be the blog police. I seem to recall the night you reported Cody and me for idle banter.

Irony is hitting hard this time.


love it...
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
Taz, I find it hilarious that you ***** about someone pointing out how your posts are clearly off topic, but at the same time you never hesitate to be the blog police. I seem to recall the night you reported Cody and me for idle banter.

Irony is hitting hard this time.




that was a long time




was trying too bring a little joy too the blog not evere day some one steals a golf chart and trys too drive it some where with champagne on it lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Taz, I find it hilarious that you ***** about someone pointing out how your posts are clearly off topic, but at the same time you never hesitate to be the blog police. I seem to recall the night you reported Cody and me for idle banter.

Irony is hitting hard this time.
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GFS is showing a major winter storm..Over a week out tho..If this did occur, there would be a big shift in the weather, and some could be severe..
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Have you tried re-installing it?
or checking online forums for info.


yes...Im waiting for someone on apple support to answer my question...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I still have my photoshop broken...can't do any graphics for a little while

Have you tried re-installing it?
or checking online forums for info.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


interesting Aussie... pretty much for all scales 74 mph or 64 kt is used to designate a typhoon, hurricane and cyclone to be so.

btw...I watched the New Year's fireworks in Sydney...they were amazing...!!!
What is the name of that bridge... I keep seeing it

The Sydney Harbour Bridge.
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I still have my photoshop broken...can't do any graphics for a little while
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As of now... 32F... feels like 23F

I feel my feet freezing
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto