The Exceptional U.S. Wildfire Season of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:11 PM GMT on December 31, 2012

Share this Blog
40
+

The 2012 U.S. fire season was the 3rd worst in U.S. history, with 9.2 million acres burned--an area larger than the state of Maryland. Since the National Interagency Fire Center began keeping records in 1960, only two years have seen more area burned--2006, when 9.9 million acres burned, and 2007, when 9.3 million acres burned. Although the 2012 fire season was close to a record for most acreage burned, the total number of fires--55,505--was the lowest on record, going back to 1960, said scientists at a December 2012 press briefing at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. The average U.S. fire size in 2012 was the highest on record. A September 18, 2012 report, The Age of Western Wildfires, published by the non-profit research group Climate Central, found that the number of large and very large fires on Forest Service land is increasingly dramatically. Compared to the average year in the 1970s, during the past decade there were seven times as many fires larger than 10,000 acres each year, and nearly five times as many fires larger than 25,000 acres. On average, wildfires burn twice as much land area each year as they did 40 years ago, and the burn season is two and a half months longer than 40 years ago. The increase in large fires is correlated with rising temperatures and earlier snow melt due to climate change, but fire suppression policies which leave more timber to burn may also be a factor.

The Top 5 U.S. Wildfires of 2012
Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire, New Mexico: Largest fire in New Mexico history
The Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire started as two fires that merged, both caused by lightning. The Whitewater fire was first detected on May 16th, and the smaller Baldy fire was detected a few days earlier on May 9th. These fires then merged on May 24th and together burned a total of 297,845 acres until it was 100% contained on July 23th. Mid-July rain showers helped fire crew contain this fire. This fire was difficult to contain due to rugged terrain with gusty winds, and relative humidity less than 3%. The fire consumed timber, mixed conifer, poderosa pine, pinon/juniper, and grasses. The suppression costs of the Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire surpassed $23 million, according to the GACC. This is the largest fire in New Mexico history, which surpassed the previous record of 150,000 acres consumed by the Las Conchas Fire in 2011.


Figure 1. Wunderphoto of Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire submitted by AZMountaineer21.


Figure 2. Satellite image showing the complex nature of the Whitewater-Baldy fire with multiple hot spots in red outlines with multiple smoke plumes. Image courtesy of NASA's MODIS Aqua on June 7th, 2012.

Rush Fire, California: 2nd largest in California history
The Rush Fire started from lightning on Aug. 12th and burned through Aug. 30th, consuming 315,577 acres of northeastern California portions of western Nevada. The rapid and uncontrollable fire spread was due to extremely difficult terrain, gusty winds, and extremely dry grass, sagebrush, and junipers. Fire crews reported, "Live sage brush was as dry as dead sage brush." This fire was rated a major threat to federally protected wild horses, burros, and grouse by the BLM Eagle Lake Field Office. Once this fire reached into Nevada, where it burned over 43,000 acres, it threatened a major natural gas line as well as power transmission lines. This fire cost the U.S. approximately a total of $15 million. The portion of the fire in California reached 271,911 acres, and now constitutes the second largest California fire in modern history. The largest California fire remains the Cedar Fire in 2003, which consumed 273,246 acres.


Figure 3. Progression of the Rush Fire, August 12 - 20, 2012. Image courtesy of Inciweb.org, Rush Fire maps.

Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado: most expensive in Colorado history
The Waldo Canyon Fire was the most expensive wildfire in Colorado history, costing $353 million, according to the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association. The cause of the fire is still under investigation, but investigators have determined that it was started within 3 miles of the Waldo Canyon trail head, off of U.S. 24, and was human-caused. The burn started on June 23rd and burned through July 10th, burning a total of 18,247 acres of brush, mountain shrub, oak, grass, pinion juniper, ponderosa pine, douglas fir, spruce, and limber pine. This fire was a major threat to neighborhoods and homes, as it started only four miles from Colorado Springs. Approximately 347 homes were burned and 2 people were killed by the Waldo Canyon Fire. Due to the proximity of this fire to nearby neighborhoods, over 32,000 residents were evacuated.


Figure 4. Image showing how close the Waldo Canyon fire was to homes in Colorado Springs. AP photo.


Figure 5. Flames from the Waldo Canyon Fire rolling down a hillside approaching a Colorado Springs neighborhood. AP photo.

High Park Fire, Colorado: 2nd largest in Colorado history
The High Park Fire was caused by lightning and first detected on June 9th in the mountains west of Fort Collins. The fire burned 87,284 acres of timber, grass, and brush until it was 100% contained on July 1st, making this the second largest fire in Colorado history. The largest Colorado fire remains the Hayman Fire, which burned 137,760 acres in 2002. The High Park Fire killed one person, and was briefly the most destructive fire in Colorado history, after destroying 259 homes. However, this record was quickly surpassed by the Waldo Canyon Fire just a few days later.


Figure 6. Plane throwing fire retardant onto the High Park Fire. AP photo.


Figure 7. The huge plume of the High Park Fire seen from a neighborhood. Wunderphoto submitted by turbguy.

Chips Fire, California: $55 million in suppression costs
California's Chips Fire began on July 29th and burned a total of 75,431 acres in northern California, including 48,297 acres of the Plumas National Forest, 18,374 acres of Lassen National Forest, and 8,762 acres of privately owned land. The cause of the fire is unknown. The fire forced hikers on the Pacific Crest Trail to bypass this section by hiking Hwy 70/89 or by taking a bus and skipping this section all together. The fire was contained Aug. 31st, with a total of $55 million in suppression costs. Mainly timber was consumed in this fire.


Figure 8. Satellite image of fires in northern California on August 11 2012, including the Chips fire. Image courtesy of NASA's MODIS Aqua on August 11, 2012.


Figure 9. Burn scar from the Chips Fire. Burned vegetation appears in red, unburned areas are in green. Image courtesy of NASA's Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite on September 1, 2012.

Western U.S. wildfires expected to increase due to climate change
Expect a large increase in fires over much of the globe late this century due to climate change, says research published this June in the Journal Ecosphere. Using fire models driven by output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report, the researchers, led by Max Moritz of UC Berkeley, found that 38% of the planet should see increases in fire activity over the next 30 years. This figure increases to 62% by the end of the century. However, in many regions where precipitation is expected to increase--particularly in the tropics--there should be decreased fire activity. The scientists predicted that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability over the next 30 years, and 20% will see decreases by the end of the century. The models do not agree on how fire danger will change for a large portion of the planet--54% for the period 2010 - 2039, and 18% for the period 2070 - 2099. Six key factors were found to control fire probabilities in the models. Most important was how much vegetation there was (NPP, Net Primary Productivity). Three other factors, about half as important, were precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of warmest month, and the difference between summer and winter temperature. Two other minor factors were mean temperature of wettest month, and annual precipitation. The authors found that future fire occurrence appears to primarily be a function of available moisture in many areas, and that the expected global increase in temperature of 3.5°C used in the models will not become the single dominant control on global wildfire. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Related: Wildfires in the U.S. will be at least twice as destructive by 2050, burning around 20 million acres nationwide each year, according to a federal report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2012.


Figure 10. Predicted fractional change in fire probability for the period 2010 - 2039 (top) and 2070 - 2099 (bottom) for the average of sixteen climate models used for the 2007 IPCC report. For the 2010 - 2039 period, the models agree that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 38% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 54%. For the 2070 - 2099 period, the models agree that 20% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 62% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 18%. Image credit: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Moritz et al., 2012, from the journal Ecosphere.


Coolest fire video of 2012: A fire tornado in Curtin Springs, Australia, from mid-September, 2012. NOAA comments: "While rare, fire tornadoes (also known as fire whirls) generally form when superheated air near the surface of a large fire zone rises rapidly in an airmass where sufficient horizontal or vertical vorticity (spin in the atmosphere) is also present. Much like a dust devil or whirlwind, the rapidly rising air above a wildfire can accelerate and turn the local vorticity into a tight vertical vortex, now composed of fire instead of dust."

Kari Kiefer and Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 506 - 456

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

506. whitewabit (Mod)
10:56 AM GMT on January 02, 2013
5.5 degrees here in central Illinois and will probably drop another degree or two just after sun rise ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
505. LargoFl
10:50 AM GMT on January 02, 2013
Good Morning Folks!!..7-day for the Tampa Bay area...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37070
504. LargoFl
10:48 AM GMT on January 02, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37070
503. indianrivguy
10:47 AM GMT on January 02, 2013
Mornin' folks!

Evening Aussie!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2523
502. LargoFl
10:46 AM GMT on January 02, 2013
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-021100-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
430 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2013

.NOW...
...MILD EVENING IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

THROUGH LATE EVENING...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 60S...FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. UNDER LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR...AND THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. THESE LOW ARE WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL EARLY
JANUARY VALUES OF UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHICH ARE THE COLDEST
SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$

CRISTALDI
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37070
501. AussieStorm
9:45 AM GMT on January 02, 2013
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:

Mate, Have you seen what the ECMWF does with Freda? Also has 92S following in the path of Severe Tropical Storm Dumile

TC Freda in 144hrs.

Loop


92S in 240hrs.

Loop
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
499. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST January 2 2013
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 6.0N 131.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44881
498. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER FREDA (05F)
21:00 PM FST January 2 2013
====================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Freda (994 hPa) located at 20.0S 164.0E. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 7 knots. Position good based on infrared multispectral imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.

Organization remains poor with low level circulation center exposed and deep convection displaced to the southeast. ex-FREDA lies in a high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Most global models move the system southeast and then west southwest without further intensification.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44881
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
Pretty cool, TA.

Check out this link if you want from FlightAware.
Picked a United flight from LAX to JFK. Click on the graph for speed over on the right and scroll down.

With a flight path along the jetstream. 751 mph ground speed at one point if it can be believed.

FlightAware.com United 233 LAX to JFK

Maybe a pretty good tailwind?


I prefer to use Flight Radar24, it's more or less the same but with better looks
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
495. whitewabit (Mod)
Tonight will be the coldest so far this winter here in Central Illinois .. Forecast for a low of 7 degrees .. here at 1:00 am its already down to 7.1 .. wind chill probably around 0 with light winds ..

I believe temps will drop to 3 or 4 more degrees before cloudy skies start our day ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mount Washington Observatory,NH..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
491. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dumile (983 hPa) located at 15.0S 55.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM in the northern and the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
140 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.9S 54.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 19.3S 54.4E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 23.8S 54.5E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 27.3S 58.4E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
SSMIS F16 0119z shows a convective activity closer from the center but general organization has not clearly improve during last night. Stronger winds are probably still far from the system core, and the wind structure remains asymmetric.

The center keeps on being difficult to locate accurately on meteosat7 imagery. As forecast , system is on a south southwestwards track under the steering influence of the mid/high levels ridge existing in the east.

On this expected track, Dumile is expected to pass west of Mascareignes archipelago on Thursday. Beyond system should curve southeastward before evacuation towards the mid-latitude Saturday.

The vertical wind shear is expected to weaken as the system approaches from the upper troposphere ridge axis. Consequently, Dumile should intensify during the next 36 hours. On and after, it should undergo cooler sea surface temperatures during the night from Thursday to Friday.

On and after Friday, northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between Friday and Saturday.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Mascareignes (Réunion and Mauritius) should monitor the progress of this system. Note that Dumile should close east of Tromelin Island (less than 200 km) today.

It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44881
Dumile is still organizing:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A quick forecast map I drew for the SW Texas snow. The map is subject to change at a moments notice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
485. Skyepony (Mod)
So far so good with the Kalluk, Shell's Arctic drilling rig that has run aground again in AK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
484. Skyepony (Mod)
Sandy has probably increased the demand for construction workers by at least an additional 30,000, said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at Economic Outlook Group LLC, a forecasting firm.

The economic boost of post-storm reconstruction probably will occur over the next year or two, and Baumohl said he expects "a real big, V-shaped rebound" in construction over the next six to 12 months.

"We're going to see a significant multiplier effect with all these jobs that are going to be generating income for these workers, which are then going to spend that additional income in the economy," Baumohl said. The rebuilding effort could add 0.4 percentage points to U.S. growth in 2013, he said.


Read more:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
483. Skyepony (Mod)
em>WASHINGTON — New York area-lawmakers in both parties are erupting in anger, saying the House Republican leadership has decided to let Congress adjourn without holding a vote on aid for victims of Superstorm Sandy.

There is no immediate comment from either Speaker John Boehner (BAY'-nur) or Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who sets the floor schedule.

In remarks on the House floor, Republican Rep. Peter King called the decision absolutely indefensible, while Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey said she felt betrayed.

The Senate approved a $60.4 billion measure Friday to help with recovery from the October storm that devastated parts of New York, New Jersey and nearby states. The House Appropriations Committee has drafted a smaller, $27 billion measure, and a vote had been expected before Congress' term ends Thursday at noon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
Pretty cool, TA.

Check out this link if you want from FlightAware.
Picked a United flight from LAX to JFK. Click on the graph for speed over on the right and scroll down.

With a flight path along the jetstream. 751 mph ground speed at one point if it can be believed.

FlightAware.com United 233 LAX to JFK

Maybe a pretty good tailwind?

Woot! They be flyin!

Very cool link.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
481. beell
Pretty cool, TA.

Check out this link if you want from FlightAware.
Picked a United flight from LAX to JFK. Click on the graph for speed over on the right and scroll down.

With a flight path along the jetstream. 751 mph ground speed at one point if it can be believed.

FlightAware.com United 233 LAX to JFK

Maybe a pretty good tailwind?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The inner core of Dumile remains disorganized on microwave imagery due to moderate shear. The cyclone still has an opportunity to strengthen in the next few days. It would still threaten Reunion Island, which is east of Madagascar.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31557
1938 Hurricane Hits New England
(a newsreel from that era)

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
477. Inyo
The fire situation is incredibly complex. Climate change is certainly part of the issue but there are many land management and ecological issues at play. For instance, regardless of climate change, the Rush Fire probably would have not even happened if it were't for the introduction of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), an introduced invasive grass. Sagebrush shrubs generally grow far enough apart that fires don't easily spread between them, even if the conditions are very dry. But, cheatgrass grows between the sagebrush, and dries out very fast. This is allowing huge areas of the Great Basin to burn where it never did before. Buffellgrass is doing much the same to deserts to the south such as many in Arizona.

It's hard to think about all the many problems facing us at once, but the fact is a dramatic increase of fires is happening in the Great Basin due to invasive plants, changes in grazing, drawdown of water tables in some cases, climate change (human caused and probably natural as well), fire suppression or other forestry practices, and the increase in sprawling suburbs that mean more people are in places where they will start fires.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
476. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST January 2 2013
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 6.0N 134.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44881
475. Hugo5
Not sure if anyone else really noticed it but you we have an interesting subtropical low off mexico near the goc now. nothing will develope with it except that it will bring a lot of moisture with it. interesting none the less at this time of year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
Dumille is used a male or female? Imo I think is for both.


I'll go with male
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dumille is used a male or female? Imo I think is for both.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting skycycle:






Sometimes I think...oh wow, thank goodness Madagascar will just get missed...but then think, is that actually bad? Are they dependant on the tropical systems for their annual rainfall a great deal?! what seems a lucky break from my point of view, may not be one at all....just like Texas being 'lucky' last year with no storms landing, but they sure could have used them
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 841
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
The story, in pix, of the blizzard of '66
(for all of you that wish for snow. Yuck.)

Link


Well, don't think most those wishing for snow are hoping for a 100" blizzard! Much difference! LOL Yuck I'm sure for that ;)
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 841
blog is really slow today, I guess there is not much weather to talk about. Hope everyone had a good New Year and all is good. 2013 in like a lamb!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The story, in pix, of the blizzard of '66
(for all of you that wish for snow. Yuck.)

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DUMILE (05-20122013)
4:00 AM RET January 2 2013
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dumile (983 hPa) located at 13.8S 55.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
140 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.7S 54.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 19.7S 53.9E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 24.0S 53.6E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 27.5S 56.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
ASCAT data at 01/1813z show that system intensity has been over estimated at 01/18z (max 10 min winds 45kt in the north-eastern quadrant). Stronger winds were still far from the system core, and the wind structure was de-ssymetric.

Last animated infra red pictures depict the convection wrapping more tightly around the center that is still difficult to locate accurately.

During the past six hours, system has track southwestward on the northwestern edge of the mid to high troposphere ridge in its east. This track may curve south southwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, as the ridge will strengthen. On this track, Dumile is expected to pass west of Mascareignes archipelago Thursday morning. Beyond system should curve south-eastward before evacuation towards the mid-latitude Saturday. Official RSMC forecast track remains close to ECMWF that shows a very good confidence on its ensemble run.

The upper levels vertical wind shear (15-20 knots according to the CIMSS data) is forecast to weaken, system approaching from the upper troposphere ridge axis. Consequently, Dumile should intensify during the next 36 hours. On and after, it should undergo cooler sea surface temperature during the night from Thursday to Friday.

On and after Friday, north-westerly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between Friday and Saturday.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Mascareignes (Réunion and Mauritius) should monitor the progress of this system. Note that Dumile should pass very close east of Tromelin island tomorrow morning.

It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.


Lol..Forte tempete tropicale. For anyone who wants a French lesson that literally translates as 'strong tropical tempest'.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
465. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DUMILE (05-20122013)
4:00 AM RET January 2 2013
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dumile (983 hPa) located at 13.8S 55.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
140 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.7S 54.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 19.7S 53.9E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 24.0S 53.6E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 27.5S 56.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
ASCAT data at 01/1813z show that system intensity has been over estimated at 01/18z (max 10 min winds 45kt in the north-eastern quadrant). Stronger winds were still far from the system core, and the wind structure was de-ssymetric.

Last animated infra red pictures depict the convection wrapping more tightly around the center that is still difficult to locate accurately.

During the past six hours, system has track southwestward on the northwestern edge of the mid to high troposphere ridge in its east. This track may curve south southwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, as the ridge will strengthen. On this track, Dumile is expected to pass west of Mascareignes archipelago Thursday morning. Beyond system should curve south-eastward before evacuation towards the mid-latitude Saturday. Official RSMC forecast track remains close to ECMWF that shows a very good confidence on its ensemble run.

The upper levels vertical wind shear (15-20 knots according to the CIMSS data) is forecast to weaken, system approaching from the upper troposphere ridge axis. Consequently, Dumile should intensify during the next 36 hours. On and after, it should undergo cooler sea surface temperature during the night from Thursday to Friday.

On and after Friday, north-westerly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between Friday and Saturday.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Mascareignes (Réunion and Mauritius) should monitor the progress of this system. Note that Dumile should pass very close east of Tromelin island tomorrow morning.

It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44881
For West Palm Beach...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
463. whitewabit (Mod)
Thanks Levi !
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
Quoting whitewabit:


How will that effect the temperatures in North America and Europe ?? the lack of a strong one ??


Well, it's easy to assume that if the polar vortex is weak or displaced, the mid-latitudes will be cold. The catch is that not all of the mid-latitudes will be cold, only some parts. Over the next couple weeks, while some blocking remains over the pole, the polar vortex is displaced southward over Canada. This sets up a transient warm pattern for Europe, and floods the U.S. with warmth for a while due to the westerly flow south of the displaced vortex.

GFS ensembles Day 7 shows this:



However, periodic cold shots and storms are likely for the rest of this winter in the eastern U.S. given the tendency for arctic blocking. The battle this winter is over where the cold air gets delivered to. The current phase of the PDO is trying to fight off the same kind of pattern that created the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 winters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
461. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:


In what regard? We don't seem to have much of one at the moment.



How will that effect the temperatures in North America and Europe ?? the lack of a strong one ??
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
460. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER FREDA (05F)
9:00 AM FST January 2 2013
====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Freda (996 hPa) located at 19.9S 162.9E is reported as moving southeast at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.

Organization remains poor with low level circulation center exposed and deep convection displaced to the southeast. Ex-Freda lies in a high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Most global models move the system southeast and then west southwest with no further intensification.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44881
Quoting whitewabit:


Levi .. your thoughts on the Polar Vortex ??


In what regard? We don't seem to have much of one at the moment.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Published on Aug 28, 2012 by Patrick Pearson

TWC Tropical Team with Brian Norcross and Dr. Jeff Masters discuss Hurricane ISAAC's unusual core cycling.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
It wouldn't be a huge snow event, but there should be some snow in SW TX.

This area will take any moisture it can get. This area doesn't get much moisture anyway but they have received less than half of what they normally receive past 2 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 506 - 456

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.