New threat near Barbados; Panama disturbance fizzles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:19 PM GMT on November 13, 2005

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The tropical disturbance that has festered over the waters between Panama and Nicaragua the past three days has dissipated, and tropical storm formation is no longer expected in this region.

A new area of disturbed weather has developed about 80 miles south of Barbados this morning. A low level circulation center is apparent near 12N 59W on both visible satellite imagery and an 8 am EDT QuikSCAT satellite pass. Deep convection associated with this 1007 mb low is mostly to its north, where the QuicSCAT satellite saw winds of up to 35 mph. Wind shear is quite high for tropical storm formation to occur, about 20 knots, but this shear is expected to decrease over the next few days. A tropical depression could form as early as Monday as the system crosses the Lesser Antilles islands into the eastern Caribbean. It is more likely, however, that development would occur Wednesday or later as the system moves into the central Caribbean.

The models are not gung-ho on this system, except for the Canadian model, which brings it quickly to hurricane strength just south of Hispanolia on Wednesday. The GFS model doesn't develop the system at all, and the other models forecast a weak tropical storm in the central Caribbean by Thursday.


Figure 1. Early model runs for the disturbance near Barbados.

I'll have an update Monday morning, or late tonight if the system develops.

Jeff Masters

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140. AySz88
4:41 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
New post up.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
139. Skyepony (Mod)
4:39 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
This thing has slowly developed under some rough shear~ last 5 day shear loop.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
138. quakeman55
4:30 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
I wonder how many major hurricanes have developed historically in November...if any...I bet that's something that Jeff Masters could address later tonight or in the morning when he posts next.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
137. Skyepony (Mod)
4:29 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
The shear is the only thing holding it back the heat potential is certainly there. Shear drops long enough & low enough, it'll be a major hurricane easy.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
136. dcw
4:24 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
WTF is the NHC thinking? 60kt in 120 hours? What in the world...try 48 hours.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
135. tornadoty
4:19 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Good night.
134. atmosweather
4:15 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
im out 2, nite guys will be back tomorrow with another forecast and other stuff
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
133. atmosweather
4:13 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
nite gamma
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
132. seflagamma
4:11 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Goodnight everyone. I will check in again tomorrow. I count on all of you keeping us up to date with all the "Gamma" information...goodness help us!
Will catch up tomorrow. Gamma

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
131. atmosweather
4:10 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
i would be shocked to see this become a major hurricane
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
130. tornadoty
4:05 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
But Atmos, the same thing happened to KATRINA, RITA, and WILMA.
129. atmosweather
4:02 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
lol torn true but it has flip flopped incredibly during the last couple of days. the previous run didnt even develop it lol. the next run will probably disspiate it within 2 hrs or something! and then the run after that will call for cat 5 in 2 days
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
128. tornadoty
4:00 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Atmos, it's 2005 and the GFDL, which is currently in the scare the **** out of everyone mode, has been the most accurate model all year.
127. 8888888889gg
4:00 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
tornadoty ha ha very funny 1000mph wind ha ha not
126. code1
4:00 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Gamma, we won't hold it against you!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
125. code1
3:59 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Nite all you night owls! 4:45 a.m. CST comes early. Will check in before leaving for work to see your forecasts.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
124. atmosweather
3:59 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
night bug

ROFL quake
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
123. atmosweather
3:58 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
hurricane by wednesday night?
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
122. seflagamma
3:57 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
I remember back in August and September, laughing about having a TS or Hurricane Gamma. NO way it could happen. Now we have one right on our door steps! Delta comes after Gamma....How to I explain this to my grandchildren and granddogs if this becomes a bad storm???? How can "Gamma" do anything bad, a sweet, nice, little old lady like myself!
LOL, LOL, LOL....
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
121. palmettobug53
3:57 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Ta! folks. Gotta head off to bed or I'll never get up in the a.m. for work. Catch you all tomorrow, and hope this thingy down there doesn't get nasty. The GFDL doesn't look good.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24992
120. quakeman55
3:57 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
It's the end of the world as we know it...and I feel fine...
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
119. tornadoty
3:57 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
And now for my ACTUAL forecast:

0hr- 35 MPH
12hr- 45 MPH
24hr- 50 MPH
36hr- 55 MPH
48hr- 65 MPH
72hr- 75 MPH
96hr- 95 MPH
120hr- 120 MPH
118. snowboy
3:56 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
LOL tornadoty, let's hope it's not quite that bad. I'm off, g'night all.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
117. code1
3:56 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
ROFLMAO torn!! Good to see you back in good form.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
116. atmosweather
3:55 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
LOL torn wouldnt put it past him
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
115. code1
3:54 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Oughta be against the law!!!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
114. tornadoty
3:54 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Here's MY forecast for Gamma:
0hr- 35 MPH
12hr- 70 MPH
24hr- 145 MPH
36hr- 170 MPH
48hr- 220 MPH
72hr- 275 MPH
96hr- 400 MPH
120hr- 1000 MPH
144hr- the end of the world
113. atmosweather
3:52 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
gamma, delta, epsilon, zeta, eta, theta, iota.....who knows how far we could go lol
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
112. snowboy
3:52 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
hey atmos hope you're right with your prediction but I think you and NHC are both on the conservative side with this in terms of winds...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
111. snowboy
3:49 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
... gamma, delta ...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
110. atmosweather
3:47 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
lol caneman
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
109. code1
3:47 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Sorry snowboy, I meant caneman :)
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
108. code1
3:46 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
My sentiments exactly snowboy.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
107. atmosweather
3:45 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
here's my forecast for td27

0hr- 13.5n 62.7w, 35 mph
12hr- 13.9n 64.4w, 40 mph
24hr- 14.2n 66.2w, 40 mph
36hr- 14.4n 68.2w, 45 mph
48hr- 14.5n 70.3w, 55 mph
60hr- 14.5n 72.4w, 60 mph
72hr- 14.5n 74.6w, 65 mph
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
106. snowboy
3:45 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
now now caneman let's not rile young TD 27
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
105. NOLAinNC
3:45 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
What comes after Gamma, god forbid.
104. code1
3:42 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hey Gamma, remember way back when, we laughed when they spoke of the Greek alphabet? Seems like yesterday now!!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
103. caneman
3:42 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
To: TD 27
From: Caneman
Re: Go to hell! Do not pass go or collect $200. But go straight to hell!
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 99
102. palmettobug53
3:40 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
For sure, snowboy! Lord knows, no one needs another hit!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24992
101. snowboy
3:33 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
hey palmettobug53, it is a wild season to be sure - hopefully this is a last wheezy gasp
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
100. palmettobug53
3:20 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Yeah, this is unbelievable! TD27? I mean, I know there have been many, many years when this has to have happened in the past, but that was before records were kept....... Really unreal watching this occurring, now that we have the ability to monitor things out to sea, where before, we couldn't.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24992
99. snowboy
3:18 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AND RADAR DATA FROM
MARTINIQUE INDICATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE
AND BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT
14/0000Z... ST. LUCIA REPORTED SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 29 KT
...AND SHIP ZCBU6 LOCATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF REPORTED
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 27 KT. SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSES AT 00Z SUPPORT
A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 1007 MB... CORRESPONDING TO
APPROXIMATELY 32 KT. RADAR DATA FROM MARTINIQUE SHOW CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER... WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LARGE AREA OF -80C TO -82C
CONVECTIVE TOPS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SINCE 22Z. THEREFORE... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN
THE FORMATIVE STAGES... SO THERE MAY SOME ERRATIC MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND
THE CENTER. HOWEVER... THE GENERAL TREND BY THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO PROPAGATE
WEST-NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. AFTER THAT... THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED THE WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST... ALLOWING THE RIDGE
TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS
SHOULD ACT TO THE DRIVE THE STORM WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE 48-120 HOUR FORECAST PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE NOGAPS... UKMET... AND
GFDL MODELS.

UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. AFTERWARDS... THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT... AT WHICH TIME MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE
INTENSITY UP TO 66 KT IN 108 HOURS... WHEREAS THE GFDL MAKES THE
CYCLONE A 112-KT MAJOR HURRICANE AT THE SAME TIME. IT SHOULD BE
POINTED OUT THAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST WAS BASED ON
THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL FORECAST TRACK... WHICH TAKES THE STORM
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS COLOMBIA WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THEY ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP STRONGER THAN
INDICATED AFTER 72 HOURS... GIVEN THE MUCH LOWER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE 96- AND 120-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITIONS.

FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
98. atmosweather
3:18 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
thx bug
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
97. seflagamma
3:16 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
NOOOOO to Gamma. (except for me of course) I cannot believe we have our 27th tropical depression this year. Unbelievable!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
96. palmettobug53
3:15 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Oh, cool, Atmos! I'll write that down so the next time I wanna, I canna!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24992
95. atmosweather
3:14 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
i can help u there, bug53

when u make the link, go to the end of the code and after the > of the url address replace "link" with whatever u want it to say
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
94. Jedkins
3:13 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Td 27 has officially formed!!!
93. seflagamma
3:13 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Bug53,
now that you have done your duty about helping us post pics, can you please go to the Novelle and help us with our story line, it is really getting interesting but we are at a loss now how we want it to continue! Should Annie and Cole get hooked up or will it be Rylee and Cole. What about Billy? is he worth saving. And poor Mama???LOL
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
92. code1
3:09 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Thank you bug!! Send it to atmos as well, please.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
91. palmettobug53
3:08 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Links are easy. Got that on my own. I just can't do the ones that don't say "LINK" but have the title of whatever it is.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24992
90. palmettobug53
3:05 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
You're welcome, Gamma!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24992

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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