Great Drought of 2012 continuing into 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on December 28, 2012

Share this Blog
39
+

Rain and snow from the massive winter storm that swept across the nation over the past week put only a slight dent in the Great Drought of 2012, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report. The area of Iowa in extreme or exceptional drought fell 9 percentage points to 32 percent, thanks to widespread precipitation amounts of 0.5" - 1.5". However, the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought remained virtually unchanged from the previous week, at 61.8%. According to NOAA's monthly State of the Drought report, the 61.8% of the U.S. covered by drought this week was also what we had during July, making the 2012 drought the greatest U.S. drought since the Dust Bowl year of 1939. (During December of 1939, 62.1% of the U.S. was in drought; the only year with more of the U.S. in drought was 1934.) The Great Drought of 2012 is about to become the Great Drought of 2012 - 2013, judging by the latest 15-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model. There is a much below-average chance of precipitation across the large majority of the drought region through the second week of January, and these dry conditions will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by the second week of January. The river level at St. Louis is currently -3.6', which is the 9th lowest level of the past 100 years. The latest NOAA river level forecast calls for the river to fall below -5' by January 4. This would be one of the five lowest water levels on record for St. Louis. At this water level, the river's depth will fall to 9' at Thebes, Illinois, which is the threshold for closing the river to barge traffic. The Army Corps of Engineers is working to dredge the river to allow barge traffic to continue if the river falls below this level, but it is uncertain if this will be enough to make a difference, unless we get some significant January precipitation in the Upper Mississippi watershed. The river is predicted to set a new all-time low by January 13 (Figure 4.)


Figure 1. The December 25, 2012 U.S. Drought Monitor showed that approximately 62% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.



Figure 2. Predicted 7-day precipitation for the period ending on Friday, January 4. Very few regions of the main U.S. drought area are predicted to receive as much as 0.5" of precipitation (dark green color.) Image credit: NOAA.

Long-term drought outlook
NOAA's December 20 Seasonal Drought Outlook called for drought to persist over at least 80% of the U.S. drought area through the end of March. I don't see any signs of a shift in the fundamental large-scale atmospheric flow patterns during the past few weeks, or in the model forecasts for the coming weeks, and it is good bet that drought will be a huge concern as we enter spring. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts an increased chance of drier than average conditions over southwestern portions of the drought region during the coming three months. In general, droughts are more likely in the Central U.S. when warmer than average ocean temperatures prevail in the tropical Atlantic, with cooler than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific (La Niña-like conditions.) This is the current situation, though the equatorial tropical Pacific is only slightly cooler than average (0.2°C below average as of December 24). Most of the Midwest needs 3 - 9" of precipitation to pull out of drought.


Figure 3. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas need the most rain, 9 - 15".


Figure 4. The latest NOAA river level forecast calls for the Mississippi River to fall below -5' at St. Louis by January 4. At this level, the river may close to barge traffic due to low water. By January 13, the river is expected to fall to its lowest level on record, -6.2'. The record was set in January 1940, after the great Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s.


Figure 5. This Nov. 28, 2012 photo provided by The United States Coast Guard shows a WWII minesweeper on the Mississippi River near St. Louis, Missouri. The minesweeper, once moored along the Mississippi River as a museum at St. Louis before it was torn away by floodwaters in 1993, is normally completely under water. However, it has become visible--rusted but intact--due to near-record low river levels on the Mississippi. (AP Photo/United States Coast Guard, Colby Buchanan)

Links:
My post on Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger discussed how drought is our greatest threat from climate change.

Ricky Rood blogs about the Dust Bowl

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 584 - 534

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

Quoting LargoFl:
whew COLD and WINDY here this morning,dogs shivering lol...


Same here in Madeira Beach, too cold for me! When I woke up they said it was 46 with a wind chill of 38, brrr and grrr to that :) We should see 60 today but with the wind gusting up to 24mph it will still feel cold to me. Hey but a bright note is the cold front brought some really good rain! My gauge showed 1.20" which is the most we've seen in a long time.
Interesting reading back today my blood boiled a couple times but I don't think that qualifies as GW but I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong. Also, I learned I am glad I don't have "a pair", and my husband and sons are, too, they seem to bring out an annoying arrogance in some that possess them. Have a great day everybody and stay warm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
28.4*F in Macon Georgia this morning too.
94% humidity but no snow here either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
rgr that!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 647
Seems pret darn silly to have freezing weather and no snow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
G'morn to the early shift.

28.6F down on da Bayou Grande.

EDIT: 28,4F @ 5:57 am CST
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 647
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
527 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012

...A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST/ 7AM CST THIS
MORNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR TAYLOR DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...

...A FREEZE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...


ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026-027-GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161-302200-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FZ.A.0008.121231T0900Z-121231T1300Z/
/O.EXT.KTAE.FZ.W.0008.000000T0000Z-121230T1300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LE E-WORTH-
TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-
COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS -LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTF ORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...DOTHAN...K INSEY...
COWARTS...WEBB...COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...
HUDSON...BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...
MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...YOUNGST OWN...
BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...WEWAHITCHKA...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...
SWEETWATER...CRAWFORDVILLE...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...
CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON ...LEARY...
DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVEST ER...ASHBURN...
TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLA KELY...
COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE.. .ADEL...SPARKS...
NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO... THOMASVILLE...
QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
527 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012 /427 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2012/

...A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/
THIS MORNING...

...A FREEZE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE: LOWS 27 TO 31 DEGREES THIS MORNING AND MONDAY
MORNING...COLDEST VALUES OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

* DURATION: 2 TO 5 HOURS BELOW FREEZING.

* IMPACTS...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DURATION COULD
KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning Folks!!..7-day for Tampa Bay area...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
whew COLD and WINDY here this morning,dogs shivering lol...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
573. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
05R forecast track

Dark red intensity marker in the track near Réunion is intense tropical cyclone stage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
572. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 05-20122013
10:00 AM RET December 30 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1000 hPa) located at 9.9S 60.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 9.9S 59.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.1S 58.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 11.5S 56.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.0S 55.8E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
According to satellite imagery and surface obs, the circulation is clearly well defined, around an unique center, more symmetrical than yesterday. Under the negative effect of a rather strong easterly constraint (30 knots according to CIMSS data), the main convection is only located in the western semi-circle.

On the northern edge of a low to mid-level ridge, the system should resume a general westwards tracks for the next 24 to 36 hours. Beyond that time, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system. Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. Available numerical weather prediction models are in very good agreement on that track even in the long term forecast ... so there is a higher than usual degree of confidence in the track forecast.

According to numerical weather prediction fields, the shear (main inhibitor currently) should gradually decrease until monday. Tuesday, the environmental conditions should become excellent resulting in steady intensification (good oceanic heat contain, low shear, good upper level divergence with 2 outflow channels both north and south).

Given all the above, inhabitants of Agalega, La Reunion and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position ... specially at long range. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to be large and associated hazards could affect widespread areas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Situating northeast of Madagascar, Invest 96S is struggling to organize due to strong easterly shear. However, the ECMWF forecasts this system to become a strong cyclone east of Madagascar by the next several days.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fraternal twins one would assume and their parents were brother and sister! Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cyclone Freda:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


hi mate... long time no see

Yeah, I've been away visiting my parents.




Cyclone Freda lashes Solomon Islands


Tropical Cyclone Freda has struck the Solomon Islands, bringing heavy rains and winds of up to 130 kilometres per hour.

Witnesses say roofs have been ripped off houses and trees have been flattened, while rising rivers caused flooding in some areas.

There are no reports of deaths or injuries.

Sajay Prakesh of the Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre in Fiji said although the cyclone was moving away, parts of the Solomon Islands were being hit by "very strong winds and heavy rain".

"Cyclone Freda is now a category two cyclone and it is continuing to intensify," he said on Saturday afternoon.

"It will become category-three by midnight tonight, having very destructive winds."

Coastal and low-lying areas are at risk of inundation and fishermen have been advised to stay away from the sea.

Matthew Bass from the Bureau of Meteorology in Brisbane says Freda is no longer expected to hit Vanuatu and New Caledonia in the coming days.

"At this stage it's expected to maintain a reasonably southerly path and with that it isn't directly expected to affect Vanuatu in the next couple of days," he said.

"At this stage around New Year's we're expecting it to be quite far from New Caledonia, still to the north-east of the islands."

Freda comes just weeks after Cyclone Evan killed at least five people in Samoa before destroying homes and stranding thousands of tourists in Fiji.

Queensland weather forecaster Peter Otto says the Freda is about 1,300 kilometres from the Australian coast.

"This cyclone is expected to stay way off the eastern Australian coast for the next several days and the only impact we can see in the near future is the possibility of waves increasing into the early part of next week, but that's a long way off," he said.

Meanwhile, the weather bureau says a cyclone off Western Australia is unlikely to reach the coast.

Category-one Cyclone Mitchell is about 600 kilometres north-north-west of Exmouth and is expected to move south over the next 48 hours.

It is likely to intensify to a category-two overnight, before weakening again on Sunday.

However, David Farr from the Bureau of Meteorology says Mitchell is not expected to cross the coast.

"On the current forecast track it won't affect the north west coast of WA," he said.

"There's a slight risk of gales on the upper west coast if the system takes a track a bit more to the south-east from what we're expecting. But it is only a slight risk."


© ABC 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
About to make landfall.


Yep.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:
Large, powerful extratropical low with hurricane-force winds affecting Alaska:

About to make landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Large, powerful extratropical low with hurricane-force winds affecting Alaska:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
564. BtnTx
Happy New Years to the Dr JM wu bloggers!
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
Quoting AussieStorm:
If you run in the rain, you risk falling over. Walk don't run the risk. No matter what, if you walk or run in the rain, you'll get wet either way. Or just stay inside and down go anywhere.



TC Freda Cat 4 Cyclone/ Cat 3 Hurricane







hi mate... long time no see
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
If you run in the rain, you risk falling over. Walk don't run the risk. No matter what, if you walk or run in the rain, you'll get wet either way. Or just stay inside and down go anywhere.



TC Freda Cat 4 Cyclone/ Cat 3 Hurricane





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TomTaylor: The whole point here is to get as little wetness as possible.
Patrap: Umbrellas vs Ponchos?

Umbrellas are fine for those with a grip like Mary Poppins. For the rest, definitely a falling hazard.
And ponchos make ya sweat.
I prefer sliding between raindrops m'self. Less chance of "I'm melting..." ifn ya know what I mean.

beell: For those of you tired of this thread--use the tools or skip it. I could cite numerous examples of posts that I had not the slightest interest in. Let it roll. Come up with your own content.
whitewabit: Why don't you take it to your own blog??

What, and give up Show Biz?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE LAKES BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INTERIOR SECTIONS SOUTH OF THE LAKES MAY APPROACH FREEZING BUT WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW YEARS DAY...AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A GULF LOW.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435


A hard freeze warning is in effect for southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana north and west of the tidal lakes. A freeze warning in in effect for southeast Louisiana below the tidal lakes and outside the the city of New Orleans, excluding the immediate coast. Low temperatures in the mid 20s can be expected early Sunday in the hard freeze warning area, while lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s can be expected south and west of the tidal lakes.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, never thought I'd see a 'Han Shot First' style debate going on WU, and especially not over running in the rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Do you see RTS has a wu blog up about this question?... continued over there. I was enjoying the discussion also, fwiw. Guess I should. I started it. lol Inadvertently.



Fool in da Rain


Now I will stand in the rain on the corner
I'll watch the people go shopping downtown
Another ten minutes no longer
And then I'm turning around, 'round
The clock on the wall's moving slower
Oh, my heart it sinks to the ground
And the storm that I thought would blow over
Clouds the light of the love that I found, found
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
555. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Civicane49:


Not a whole lot of rain.


Was wondering .. the west coast there has been quite dry ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 366 Comments: 32124
Quoting beell:
For those of you tired of this thread-use the tools or skip it. I could cite numerous examples of posts that I had not the slightest interest in. Let it roll. Come up with your own content.



Could have been done on a treadmill with a prism-sized shower of known volume "rained-out" over a set time, and a simulated headwind equal to speed of travel.

Highly absorbent clothing and a means to calculate the loss of original water volume might work.

Ok, i'm done, fwiw.
Do you see RTS has a wu blog up about this question?... continued over there. I was enjoying the discussion also, fwiw. Guess I should. I started it. lol Inadvertently.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whitewabit:


Mitchell is east of its forecast point .. how much rain is it bring to the western coast of Aus ??


Not a whole lot of rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whitewabit:


Wonder what it will bring for us in 10 days or so ..


It actually isn't forecast to head this way according to the GFS. :( Just the extreme west coast will see some rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whitewabit:


Wonder what it will bring for us in 10 days or so ..


For me, probably rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
550. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


What a beautiful storm in the Gulf of Alaska!


Wonder what it will bring for us in 10 days or so ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 366 Comments: 32124


What a beautiful storm in the Gulf of Alaska!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
548. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


The India Meteorological Numerical Weather Prediction website for 96S (05R) and 97S

DANG!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
547. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting beell:
For those of you tired of this thread-use the tools or skip it. I could cite numerous examples of posts that I had not the slightest interest in. Let it roll. Come up with your own content.



Could been done on a treadmill with a prism-sized shower of known volume "rained-out" over a set time, and a simulated headwind equal to speed of travel.

Highly absorbent clothing and a means to calculate the loss of original water volume might work.

Ok, i'm done, fwiw.


Why don't you take it to your own blog ??
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 366 Comments: 32124
546. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters


Mitchell is east of its forecast point .. how much rain is it bring to the western coast of Aus ??
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 366 Comments: 32124
545. beell
For those of you tired of this thread-use the tools or skip it. I could cite numerous examples of posts that I had not the slightest interest in. Let it roll. Come up with your own content.

Quoting RTSplayer:


Good question.

If the drops are fewer and spread out, or non-uniformly distributed, then randomness or "chaos" becomes a factor, which you can't predict with any ordinary math.

You can run the exact same experiment with what appears to be identical conditions, and you'll get different results because of the chaotic elements, which I ignored all the dynamic and chaotic elements in the above post for sake of simplicity, since there's really no way to calculate that by hand anyway.


Could have been done on a treadmill with a prism-sized shower of known volume "rained-out" over a set time, and a simulated headwind equal to speed of travel.

Highly absorbent clothing and a means to calculate the loss of original water volume might work.

Ok, i'm done, fwiw.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
544. ARiot
I dont run in the rain

Its silly

Plus your bottom half gets soaked from splashing.

Additionally and more interesting-- had to drive through the fast moving winter storm today. I81 is bad in nice weather. Was a mess today.

14 hours... should have been 11.5

Only saw two wrecks. Both near the end of trip in TN.

Massive respect to salt crews in VA. Super work on their part of the trip.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This argument between RTS and Tom is just waste of blog space and pointless.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
542. N3EG
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm laughing at your argument right now cause you just keep going in circles.

Go ahead and walk in the rain if you'd like, I couldn't care less.


I'll run in the rain if I want to. And I'll have scissors with me!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 DEC 2012 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 14:25:10 S Lon : 160:44:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 966.3mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : -5.9C Cloud Region Temp : -67.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 80km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.8 degrees
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting RTSplayer:


Good question.

If the drops are fewer and spread out, or non-uniformly distributed, then randomness or "chaos" becomes a factor, which you can't predict with any ordinary math.

You can run the exact same experiment with what appears to be identical conditions, and you'll get different results because of the chaotic elements, which I ignored all the dynamic and chaotic elements in the above post for sake of simplicity, since there's really no way to calculate that by hand anyway.

Like I said, it's a lot more complicated than treating the body as a prism.


I actually enjoyed reading you guys comment on the subject, its better than the lyrics to old 1970 rock songs or evil climate change arguments..carry on
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Anyone know if Freda an Freyr are fraternal twins?



Freudian Friends maybe?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
537. Hugo5
Hello all,

The low off the coast of cali is still headed further south and looks to be pushing a lot of tropical moisture north. with this and a small disturbance moving over the northern rockies I'd say we have a good chance for some showers in the heart of the nation to drought affected areas. We should see this in the next day or two. Hope all works out!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone know if Freda an Freyr are fraternal twins?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
535. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
Lordy, what a waste of Blog space and Math.

: )

Maybe banter that ridiculous stuff in wu-mail.

Wees bees tired of it to say the least.


I agree !! Why don't you take to your own blogs ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 366 Comments: 32124
Quoting beell:


How many rain drops?


Good question.

If the drops are fewer and spread out, or non-uniformly distributed, then randomness or "chaos" becomes a factor, which you can't predict with any ordinary math.

You can run the exact same experiment with what appears to be identical conditions, and you'll get different results because of the chaotic elements, which I ignored all the dynamic and chaotic elements in the above post for sake of simplicity, since there's really no way to calculate that by hand anyway.

Like I said, it's a lot more complicated than treating the body as a prism.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520

Viewing: 584 - 534

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
30 °F
Overcast