It was another year of incredible weather extremes unparalleled in American history during 2012. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters during the equally insane weather year of 2011. I present for you now the top ten weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact.
Video 1. Hour-by-hour animation of infrared satellite images for 2012. The loop goes in slow-motion to feature such events as Hurricane Sandy, the June Derecho, Summer in March, and other top weather events of 2012. The date stamp is at lower left; you will want to make the animation full screen to see the date. Special thanks to wunderground's Deb Mitchell for putting this together!
1) Superstorm Sandy Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 29), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic, with over 12 inches of rain observed in parts of Maryland. In addition, Sandy generated blizzard conditions for the central and southern Appalachians with more than a foot of snow falling in six states from North Carolina to Pennsylvania, shattering October snow records. Over 130 fatalities were reported and over 8.5 million customers lost power--the second largest weather-related power outage in U.S. history, behind the 10 million that lost power during the Blizzard of 1993. Damage from Sandy is estimated at $62 billion.
Figure 1. Cabs lie flooded on October 30, 2012, in Hoboken, NJ, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. AP photo: Charles Sykes.
2) Warmest Year on Record Spring, March, July, and the annual temperature were all warmest on record in the contiguous U.S. July was the warmest month of any month in the 1,400+ months of the U.S. data record, going back to 1895. The spring temperature departure from average was the largest on record for any season, and March temperatures had the second largest warm departure from average of any month in U.S. history. All-time hottest temperature records were set over approximately 7% of the area of the contiguous U.S., according to a database of 298 major U.S. cities maintained by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Given the very warm December temperatures so far, the final 2012 annual temperature is likely to break the previous warmest year on record (1998) by at least 0.7°F--a colossal margin to break an annual record by. It is likely that 15 states will end up with their warmest year on record in 2012, and 42 states will have a top-ten warmest year.
Figure 2. One of 2012's incredibly hot days: high temperatures on August 1 in Oklahoma from the Oklahoma Mesonet. It was the hottest day in Oklahoma since August 1936, with more than half of the state recording temperatures of 110° or higher. Oklahoma City hit 112°, tied for the city's 3nd highest temperature since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days occurred two days later--on August 3, 2012--and back on August 11, 1936 (113°.)
3) The Great Drought of 2012 The Great U.S. Drought of 2012 may well turn out to be the biggest weather story of 2012, since its full impacts have not yet been realized. The area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought peaked at 61.8% in July--the largest such area since the Dust Bowl drought of December 1939. The heat and dryness resulted in record or near-record evaporation rates, causing major impact on corn, soybean and wheat belts in addition to livestock production. Drought upstream of the Lower Mississippi River caused record and near-record low stream flows along the river in Mississippi and Louisiana, resulting in limited river transportation and commerce. Crop damages alone from the great drought are estimated at $35 billion. As the total scope of losses is realized across all lines of business in coming months, this number will climb significantly.
Figure 3. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.
4) Wildfire Season of 2012 The 2012 U.S. fire season was the 3rd worst in U.S. history, with 9.2 million acres burned--an area larger than the state of Maryland. Since the National Interagency Fire Center began keeping records in 1960, only two years have seen more area burned--2006, when 9.9 million acres burned, and 2007, when 9.3 million acres burned. New Mexico had its largest fire in state history, Colorado its most destructive and 2nd largest in state history, and Oregon had its largest fire since the 1860s. More than 3.6 million acres burned in the U.S. during August--the most on record for any August in recorded history.
Figure 4. Wunderphoto of Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire of 2012, the largest fire in New Mexico history. Wunderphoto submitted by AZMountaineer21.
5) March 2 - 3 Tornado Outbreak A massive tornado outbreak of stunning violence swept through the nation's midsection March 2 - 3, spawning deadly tornadoes that killed 41 people. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 22 and 13 dead, respectively. The scale of the outbreak was exceptional, with 70 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to southern Georgia. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak. An area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings, and tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas. The outbreak spawned two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. Total damage was estimated at $4 billion.
Figure 5. A school bus mangled by the EF-4 Henryville, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Image credit: NWS Louisville, Kentucky.
6) June 29 Multi-State Derecho A violent line of organized severe thunderstorms called a derecho swept across the U.S. from Illinois to Virginia on June 29, damaging houses, toppling trees, bringing down power lines. The storms killed 22 people, and left at least 3.4 million customers without power. The thunderstorms in a derecho (from the Spanish phrase for "straight ahead") create violent winds that blow in a straight line. The derecho was unusually intense due to extreme heat that set all-time records at ten major cities on the south side of the derecho. This heat helped create an unstable atmosphere with plenty of energy to fuel severe thunderstorms. At least 38 thunderstorms in the derecho generated wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, making the derecho one of the most severe derechoes on record. Total damage was estimated at $3.75 billion.
Figure 6. Turbulent clouds gather over Mettawa, Illinois on June 29, 2012, as the historic 2012 derecho begins to organize. Image credit: Wunderphotographer LarrySmit.
7) Hurricane Isaac Hurricane Isaac slowly lumbered ashore near the mouth of the Mississippi River on August 28 as a Category 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds. Isaac's large size and slow motion caused a storm surge more characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane--up to eleven feet--but New Orleans' new $14.5 billion levee upgrade held against Isaac's surge. The surge moved up the Mississippi River in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade. Isaac brought torrential rainfall, with more than twenty inches observed in some areas of New Orleans. Isaac also provided some drought relief to the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Isaac dumped up to 18" of rain in Florida, and disrupted the 2012 Republican Convention in Tampa. Isaac did $2 billion in damage.
Figure 7. Tropical Storm Isaac on August 28, a few hours before it intensified into a hurricane.
8) The Non-Winter of 2011-2012 "Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen. It's 2012, and the new year is ringing in another ridiculously wacky winter for the U.S. In Fargo, North Dakota yesterday, the mercury soared to 55°F, breaking a 1908 record for warmest January day in recorded history. More than 99% of North Dakota had no snow on the ground this morning, and over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year had below-average snow cover." That was the opening of my January 6, 2012 blog post, called "Remarkably dry and warm winter due to record extreme jet stream configuration." The contiguous U.S. saw its 3rd lowest snow cover on record during both winter and spring, and the winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest and 24th driest winter in U.S. history, going back to 1895. A primary cause of this warm and snowless winter was the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index was +2.52 in December 2011, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The positive NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S.
Figure 8. Flowers sprouting on January 1, 2012 in Keene, New Hampshire, thanks to unusually warm December temperatures and lack of snow. Image credit: Wunderphotographer lovne32.
9) April 30 - May 1 Severe Weather Outbreak A severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley April 30 - May 1 caused 38 tornadoes and $4 billion in damage.
10) Late-Spring Freeze: Northeast/Midwest After the record-warm "Summer in March" weather in the Great Lakes and Northeast, an April freeze damaged crops across the region. New York's fruit production was the lowest since 1948, and it was the worst fruit season for Michigan since 1945. Damage in Michigan alone was estimated at $500 million.
Honorable Mentions (text courtesy of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, with damage estimates from AON Benfield):
Severe Weather Outbreak (May): A strong cold front moving through the country on May 25 - 30 spawned 27 tornadoes from Texas to the Northeast. Damage was estimated at $2.5 billion, much of it from hail.
Severe Weather Outbreak (April): A tornado outbreak on April 13 - 14 in the Plains spawned 98 tornadoes and caused at least 6 fatalities. Damage was estimated at $1.75 billion.
Severe Weather Outbreak (June): Several days of severe storms across the Southwest spawned 25 tornadoes from June 6 - 12. Significant hail damage occurred across the Rocky Mountain Front Range, with total damage estimated at $1.75 billion.
Tropical Storm Debby/Wet Florida (June): Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Debby in early June caused damage estimated at $310 million, but Debby's rains helped break a drought in Northern Florida. Florida had its wettest summer on record, partially due to Debby.
Duluth Flooding (June): Training thunderstorms caused record flooding in and around Duluth Minnesota on June 20, with over 8 inches of rainfall observed in 24 hours in parts of the city. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, reported their highest flood heights on record. Damage was estimated at $175 million.
Pacific Northwest Winter Storm (January): A massive winter storm impacted the Pacific Northwest on January 18 - 23. Huge amounts of rain and snow fell, and hurricane-force wind gusts knocked out power to 250,000 customers. Damage was estimated at $100 million.
Hawaiian Hail Storm (March): On March 9, a cut-off low pressure system impacted the Hawaiian Islands, bringing heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. A rare EF-0 tornado hit the towns of Lanikai and Kailua on Oahu, causing minor damage. Another storm dropped a hailstone measuring 4.25 inches long, 2.25 inches tall, and 2 inches wide--the largest hailstone on record for Hawaii. Damage from the storms was estimated at $37 million.
Near-Record Low Great Lakes Levels (by end of 2012): Record warm temperatures throughout 2012 combined with low precipitation and low winter ice cover created high evaporation rates across the Great Lakes. In December, Lakes Michigan and Huron had fallen to within inches of the all-time record low lake levels set back in 1964. Low lake levels have a significant impact on recreational and commercial boating as well as tourism.
Slow Tornado Year (annual): Despite an active March, 2012 saw relatively low tornado numbers compared to recent history.
Mount Evans Tornado (July): A high elevation tornado was observed along the slope of Mount Evans at 11,900 feet--the second highest observed tornado in the U.S.
Alaska Cold Winter/Snow Record (winter): Several Alaskan locations had their coldest January on record. The monthly average temperature at Bettles, AK was -35.6°F. The statewide average January temperature was record cold--14°F below average. Record snow (134.5 inches) fell in Anchorage during the winter season, breaking the previous record set in 1954 - 55.
Alaskan Storms and Flooding (September): Several large extratropical cyclones impacted Alaska during September. Significant flooding occurred along the Sustina River and along its tributaries, causing the worse flooding in 30 years. Over 800 structures and dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed. The storms also brought early snowfall to southern portions of the state.
Death Valley sets world record for highest minimum temperature On Thursday morning, July 12, 2012 the low temperature at Death Valley, California dropped to just 107°F (41.7°C), after hitting a high of 128° (53.3°C) the previous day. Not only did the morning low temperature tie a record for the world's warmest low temperature ever recorded, the average temperature of 117.5°F was the world's warmest 24-hour temperature on record. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the only other place in the world to record a 107°F low temperature was Khasab Airport in the desert nation of Oman on June 27, 2012.
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center will release their top-ten list of U.S. weather events of 2012 on Tuesday, January 8, 2013.
Have a great holiday, everyone! I'll be back on December 26 with a new post.
I used to be that way too, but on occasion I'll look back on Sandy and watch videos from the Jersey Shore or in Staten Island and it really opens up your world to disaster.
Every disaster is made up of smaller crises.
I've always lived by the philosophy that I shouldn't feel guilty over something I held no control over. Calamity will always afflict us, typically when we least expect it. Sandy wasn't caused by anyone on the east coast wanting to see a storm, nor was today's event caused by such thinking. I can feel bad for the victims/families without feeling guilty for enjoying the storm.
Honestly (and I'm not accusing you of this, because I like you as a poster -- always have), I think most of the people who get riled up at the notion of someone wanting to "see destruction" (whatever the hell that means) do so because they want to flaunt their perceived superiority, which pisses me off. Self-righteous people are the worst.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15424
Timing never brings anyting to GA in the daytime, regardless of where the system came from or how strong it is any severe weather always hits just after sunset or in the night, meaning that alabama and mississippi have all the CAPE.....no high here. That's part of why for no reason GA has tons of EF4s and no EF5s, storms are always on the decline in GA
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7154
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1154 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES...SLAGLE...LEESVILLE...ANACOCO...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST
* AT 1153 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ANACOCO... MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LEESVILLE AND NEW LLANO BY NOON CST... SLAGLE BY 1210 PM CST... LACAMP BY 1230 PM CST...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
&&
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1148 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... THIS INCLUDES...NOME...NEDERLAND...HAMSHIRE...CENTRAL GARDENS... BEAUMONT... WEST CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... THIS INCLUDES VIDOR...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST
* AT 1148 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEAUMONT TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOME...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... HAMSHIRE BY 1155 AM CST... FANNETT AND BEAUMONT BY NOON CST... ROSE CITY BY 1205 PM CST... LA BELLE AND VIDOR BY 1210 PM CST... PORT ACRES BY 1215 PM CST... SOUTHEAST TEXAS REGIONAL AIRPORT...NEDERLAND AND CENTRAL GARDENS BY 1220 PM CST...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1154 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES...SLAGLE...LEESVILLE...ANACOCO...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST
* AT 1153 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ANACOCO... MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LEESVILLE AND NEW LLANO BY NOON CST... SLAGLE BY 1210 PM CST... LACAMP BY 1230 PM CST...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
OK BBL GUYS.........................BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1150 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHERN CATAHOULA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA... NORTHERN CONCORDIA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FERRIDAY... FRANKLIN PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WINNSBORO... MADISON PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TALLULAH... TENSAS PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA... CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...REDWOOD...VICKSBURG...
* UNTIL 345 PM CST
* AT 1146 AM CST...NWS RADAR SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTNIUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN INTENSE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 130 AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
Quoting KoritheMan: I've always lived by the philosophy that I shouldn't feel guilty over something I held no control over. Calamity will always afflict us, typically when we least expect it. Sandy wasn't caused by anyone on the east coast wanting to see a storm, nor was today's event caused by such thinking. I can feel bad for the victims/families without feeling guilty for enjoying the storm.
Honestly (and I'm not accusing you of this, because I like you as a poster -- always have), I think most of the people who get riled up at the notion of someone wanting to "see destruction" (whatever the hell that means) do so because they want to flaunt their perceived superiority, which pisses me off. Self-righteous people are the worst.
Lol thanks. And I understand your point, it sounds almost condescending when people make those accusations. I take it you've rationalized this many time hahaha.
You just have to understand how it makes people feel when they're in harms way and you guys are celebrating because the models are forecasting doom, you know? Like when the models were showing those extreme scenarios with Irene and Sandy and I was sitting nervously here in my suburban New Jersey home sensing the thrill on this blog that people like me might be in danger.
I apologize for being self righteous; I agree that those types of people can be really annoying.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 2350
NWS Mobile @NWSMobile Vis sat imagery shows breaks in the clouds to west. Expect supercells to break out ahead of main line of storms. #mobwx #alwx #mswx #flwx
NWS Mobile @NWSMobile Areas to west are w/i couple degrees of breaking capping inversion aloft..storms should develop over over LA & MS over next few hours. #mswx
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E/SE TX AND CENTRAL/SRN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 692...694...
VALID 251804Z - 251930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 692...694...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL LA ACROSS WW 694...WITH A TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO INTO THE FAR SRN EXTENT OF SVR WW 693.
A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED TO REPLACE CURRENT WW 692 PRIOR TO 19Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS NEW WW TO BE A PDS GIVEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING...THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CG LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL TX TO NWRN LA INVOF A SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED IN FAR EAST CENTRAL TX /NEAR JASPER TX/. THIS LIGHTNING AND SIMILAR INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITIES EXTENDED SSWWD ALONG A DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH SE TX/UPPER TX COAST /TO THE N-SW OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA/. TSTMS /MAINLY ELEVATED/ ALSO EXTENDED NEWD OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NWRN LA. THIS INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE POWERFUL SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SUBSEQUENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF A SSWLY LLJ WAS EVIDENT OVER SWRN-CENTRAL LA PER 17Z LCH WSR-88D VAD SHOWING 60 KT AT 1 KM AGL. THE STRONG VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS HAVE GREATLY ENHANCED THE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES UP TO 400-600 M2/S2 TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT...EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE SRN PART OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED THE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND AT 17Z WAS LOCATED INVOF JASPER TX. A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED STEADILY NWD AND EXTENDED EWD THROUGH CENTRAL LA...SRN MS /N OF KMCB/...TO THE N OF KMOB AND INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT...THE SRN EXTENT OF SVR WATCH 693 WILL ALSO HAVE A TORNADO POTENTIAL AS STORMS WILL BE SFC-BASED OR NEAR SFC-BASED.
MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED N OF WW 692...THOUGH THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS WW HAS ONLY SLOWLY DESTABILIZED THUS FAR DUE TO THE MIXING RELATED DECREASE IN THE DEWPOINTS. 18Z SLIDELL SPECIAL SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION LOCATED BETWEEN 700-800 MB AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEPER CU DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF GREATER ASCENT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL JET. SOME VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS SWRN LA SHOULD ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE INTO SERN LA/SRN MS SUPPORTING STRONGER DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED...DEEP UPDRAFTS.
..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 12/25/2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 3858
A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED TO REPLACE CURRENT WW 692 PRIOR TO 19Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS NEW WW TO BE A PDS GIVEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274
You just have to understand how it makes people feel when they're in harms way and you guys are celebrating because the models are forecasting doom, you know? Like when the models were showing those extreme scenarios with Irene and Sandy and I was sitting nervously here in my suburban New Jersey home sensing the thrill on this blog that people like me might be in danger.
No, I understand. Believe me. I come off as ruthless and bitter at times, but that's because I'd rather be realistic than optimistic. Just the way I am. Despite that though, I've never once allowed myself to ignore the victims of a disaster. But honestly dude, I feel it's generally the majority (the ones who don't want the storms) that don't understand the opposition. It's fairly easy to judge someone when you are emotional, but a logical answer is almost always better.
I also happen to think that life would get boring if it were ever completely peaceful. But that's for another discussion.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15424
Winter Storm Euclid -Look in the close-up for the ice accumulation near .25 for many places in the pink dashed line.... -Rain/snow mix -heavy rain/winds for the coast -heavy interior snow -**for TA only...Wilmington, NC
big picture... click on all images for larger view
NE close-up...
and...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7880
Quoting KoritheMan: If this verifies, I can definitively say this will be my first experience with a PDS tornado watch. Hopefully I live to tell about it. ;)
never before?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7154
Quoting KoritheMan: If this verifies, I can definitively say this will be my first experience with a PDS tornado watch. Hopefully I live to tell about it. ;)
They are intense, at least mine was haha
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4799
Quoting KoritheMan: If this verifies, I can definitively say this will be my first experience with a PDS tornado watch. Hopefully I live to tell about it. ;)
Trust me, you DO not want to have PDS in your area. Last time I had it, two EF-3 missed me by 5 miles.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3578
Any one know why my warnings wouldn't be showing up in GRLEVEL 3... I have them turned on, but it shows 0 for each category and I know that's inaccurate
Member Since: February 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 584
Quoting Bluestorm5: Trust me, you DO not want to have PDS in your area. Last time I had it, two EF-3 missed me by 5 miles.
Even I'm starting to **** my pants a little, and I'm always dancing happily at the thought of a major hurricane. I've had two EF1s pass within 5 miles of me this year, and they did enough damage. I seriously can't fathom anything stronger.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15424
Quoting WDEmobmet: Any one know why my warnings wouldn't be showing up in GRLEVEL 3... I have them turned on, but it shows 0 for each category and I know that's inaccurate
It's not working for me either. The server is being flooded which is why they're not showing. With as many people using grlevelx as they are, it's a surprise the radar is even working at all. I had to wait an hour on the March 2 outbreak to get it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274
I've been trough at least several uneventful PDS watches, its nothing to be scared of, its the same risks you know were coming, just a matter of if you get hit or not, and if you do, what storm, and what part of the storm you get.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7154
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: I've been trough at least several uneventful PDS watches, its nothing to be scared of, its the same risks you know were coming, just a matter of if you get hit or not, and if you do, what storm, and what part of the storm you get.
Well, PDS is a pretty serious stuff. Trust me, you will feel thankful after the storms passes because of the close calls.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3578
Quoting KoritheMan: Even I'm starting to **** my pants a little, and I'm always dancing happily at the thought of a major hurricane. I've had two EF1s pass within 5 miles of me this year, and they did enough damage. I seriously can't fathom anything stronger.
Me either. I've seen EF3 damage in Sanford, NC and that was enough for me. I can't imagine a stronger tornado around my area... hopefully it doesn't get too bad here tomorrow.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3578
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: I've been trough at least several uneventful PDS watches, its nothing to be scared of, its the same risks you know were coming, just a matter of if you get hit or not, and if you do, what storm, and what part of the storm you get.
So they're issued for no reason then? There's no meteorological significance between those watches and regular watches?
Okay then.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15424
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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I've always lived by the philosophy that I shouldn't feel guilty over something I held no control over. Calamity will always afflict us, typically when we least expect it. Sandy wasn't caused by anyone on the east coast wanting to see a storm, nor was today's event caused by such thinking. I can feel bad for the victims/families without feeling guilty for enjoying the storm.
Honestly (and I'm not accusing you of this, because I like you as a poster -- always have), I think most of the people who get riled up at the notion of someone wanting to "see destruction" (whatever the hell that means) do so because they want to flaunt their perceived superiority, which pisses me off. Self-righteous people are the worst.
Well that ain't good :)
Put me in it or else.
Timing never brings anyting to GA in the daytime, regardless of where the system came from or how strong it is any severe weather always hits just after sunset or in the night, meaning that alabama and mississippi have all the CAPE.....no high here. That's part of why for no reason GA has tons of EF4s and no EF5s, storms are always on the decline in GA
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SLAGLE...LEESVILLE...ANACOCO...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST
* AT 1153 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ANACOCO...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LEESVILLE AND NEW LLANO BY NOON CST...
SLAGLE BY 1210 PM CST...
LACAMP BY 1230 PM CST...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
&&
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1148 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...NOME...NEDERLAND...HAMSHIRE...CENTRAL GARDENS...
BEAUMONT...
WEST CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES VIDOR...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST
* AT 1148 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEAUMONT TO 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOME...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HAMSHIRE BY 1155 AM CST...
FANNETT AND BEAUMONT BY NOON CST...
ROSE CITY BY 1205 PM CST...
LA BELLE AND VIDOR BY 1210 PM CST...
PORT ACRES BY 1215 PM CST...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS REGIONAL AIRPORT...NEDERLAND AND CENTRAL GARDENS BY
1220 PM CST...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
&&
LAC115-251830-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0064.121225T1754Z-121225T1830Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SLAGLE...LEESVILLE...ANACOCO...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST
* AT 1153 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ANACOCO...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LEESVILLE AND NEW LLANO BY NOON CST...
SLAGLE BY 1210 PM CST...
LACAMP BY 1230 PM CST...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
&&
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1150 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CATAHOULA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN CONCORDIA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FERRIDAY...
FRANKLIN PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WINNSBORO...
MADISON PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TALLULAH...
TENSAS PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...REDWOOD...VICKSBURG...
* UNTIL 345 PM CST
* AT 1146 AM CST...NWS RADAR SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTNIUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
IN ADDITION...AN INTENSE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 130 AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
still a spinup
Lol thanks. And I understand your point, it sounds almost condescending when people make those accusations. I take it you've rationalized this many time hahaha.
You just have to understand how it makes people feel when they're in harms way and you guys are celebrating because the models are forecasting doom, you know? Like when the models were showing those extreme scenarios with Irene and Sandy and I was sitting nervously here in my suburban New Jersey home sensing the thrill on this blog that people like me might be in danger.
I apologize for being self righteous; I agree that those types of people can be really annoying.
Vis sat imagery shows breaks in the clouds to west. Expect supercells to break out ahead of main line of storms. #mobwx #alwx #mswx #flwx
NWS Mobile @NWSMobile
Areas to west are w/i couple degrees of breaking capping inversion aloft..storms should develop over over LA & MS over next few hours. #mswx
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E/SE TX AND CENTRAL/SRN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 692...694...
VALID 251804Z - 251930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 692...694...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX INTO
SWRN AND CENTRAL LA ACROSS WW 694...WITH A TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO
INTO THE FAR SRN EXTENT OF SVR WW 693.
A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED TO REPLACE CURRENT WW 692 PRIOR
TO 19Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS NEW WW TO BE A PDS GIVEN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING...THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CG
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL TX TO NWRN LA INVOF
A SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED IN FAR EAST CENTRAL TX /NEAR JASPER TX/.
THIS LIGHTNING AND SIMILAR INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITIES EXTENDED SSWWD
ALONG A DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH SE TX/UPPER TX COAST /TO THE
N-SW OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA/. TSTMS /MAINLY ELEVATED/ ALSO
EXTENDED NEWD OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NWRN LA. THIS INCREASE IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET
ACCOMPANYING THE POWERFUL SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SUBSEQUENT
AND EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF A SSWLY LLJ WAS EVIDENT OVER
SWRN-CENTRAL LA PER 17Z LCH WSR-88D VAD SHOWING 60 KT AT 1 KM AGL.
THE STRONG VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS HAVE GREATLY ENHANCED THE
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES UP TO 400-600 M2/S2 TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED
TORNADO THREAT...EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE SRN
PART OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED THE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN
AND AT 17Z WAS LOCATED INVOF JASPER TX. A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED
STEADILY NWD AND EXTENDED EWD THROUGH CENTRAL LA...SRN MS /N OF
KMCB/...TO THE N OF KMOB AND INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT...THE SRN EXTENT OF SVR WATCH 693 WILL
ALSO HAVE A TORNADO POTENTIAL AS STORMS WILL BE SFC-BASED OR NEAR
SFC-BASED.
MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED N OF WW 692...THOUGH THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THIS WW HAS ONLY SLOWLY DESTABILIZED THUS FAR DUE TO
THE MIXING RELATED DECREASE IN THE DEWPOINTS. 18Z SLIDELL SPECIAL
SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION LOCATED BETWEEN 700-800 MB AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEPER CU DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF GREATER ASCENT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM
MIDLEVEL JET. SOME VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS SWRN LA SHOULD
ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE INTO SERN LA/SRN MS SUPPORTING STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED...DEEP UPDRAFTS.
..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 12/25/2012
TO 19Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS NEW WW TO BE A PDS GIVEN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
No, I understand. Believe me. I come off as ruthless and bitter at times, but that's because I'd rather be realistic than optimistic. Just the way I am. Despite that though, I've never once allowed myself to ignore the victims of a disaster. But honestly dude, I feel it's generally the majority (the ones who don't want the storms) that don't understand the opposition. It's fairly easy to judge someone when you are emotional, but a logical answer is almost always better.
I also happen to think that life would get boring if it were ever completely peaceful. But that's for another discussion.
A "PDS" (particularly dangerous situation) tornado watch *may* be issued soon for SE Louisiana - @NWSSPC is still analyzing the threat.
__________________________________________
Winter Storm Euclid
-Look in the close-up for the ice accumulation near .25 for many places
in the pink dashed line....
-Rain/snow mix
-heavy rain/winds for the coast
-heavy interior snow
-**for TA only...Wilmington, NC
big picture... click on all images for larger view
NE close-up...
and...
RT @EricLawTV: A Tornado Watch will be coming out by 1PM for south Mississippi. This will likely be a PDS (Particularly dangerous situation)
never before?
They are intense, at least mine was haha
MY LOCATION CLOUD DECK AND WINTER WEATHERON THE WAY
Supercell initiation soon.
Even I'm starting to **** my pants a little, and I'm always dancing happily at the thought of a major hurricane. I've had two EF1s pass within 5 miles of me this year, and they did enough damage. I seriously can't fathom anything stronger.
It's not working for me either. The server is being flooded which is why they're not showing. With as many people using grlevelx as they are, it's a surprise the radar is even working at all. I had to wait an hour on the March 2 outbreak to get it.
Link
Before:
Now:
So they're issued for no reason then? There's no meteorological significance between those watches and regular watches?
Okay then.
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