It was another year of incredible weather extremes unparalleled in American history during 2012. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters during the equally insane weather year of 2011. I present for you now the top ten weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact.
Video 1. Hour-by-hour animation of infrared satellite images for 2012. The loop goes in slow-motion to feature such events as Hurricane Sandy, the June Derecho, Summer in March, and other top weather events of 2012. The date stamp is at lower left; you will want to make the animation full screen to see the date. Special thanks to wunderground's Deb Mitchell for putting this together!
1) Superstorm Sandy Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 29), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic, with over 12 inches of rain observed in parts of Maryland. In addition, Sandy generated blizzard conditions for the central and southern Appalachians with more than a foot of snow falling in six states from North Carolina to Pennsylvania, shattering October snow records. Over 130 fatalities were reported and over 8.5 million customers lost power--the second largest weather-related power outage in U.S. history, behind the 10 million that lost power during the Blizzard of 1993. Damage from Sandy is estimated at $62 billion.
Figure 1. Cabs lie flooded on October 30, 2012, in Hoboken, NJ, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. AP photo: Charles Sykes.
2) Warmest Year on Record Spring, March, July, and the annual temperature were all warmest on record in the contiguous U.S. July was the warmest month of any month in the 1,400+ months of the U.S. data record, going back to 1895. The spring temperature departure from average was the largest on record for any season, and March temperatures had the second largest warm departure from average of any month in U.S. history. All-time hottest temperature records were set over approximately 7% of the area of the contiguous U.S., according to a database of 298 major U.S. cities maintained by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Given the very warm December temperatures so far, the final 2012 annual temperature is likely to break the previous warmest year on record (1998) by at least 0.7°F--a colossal margin to break an annual record by. It is likely that 15 states will end up with their warmest year on record in 2012, and 42 states will have a top-ten warmest year.
Figure 2. One of 2012's incredibly hot days: high temperatures on August 1 in Oklahoma from the Oklahoma Mesonet. It was the hottest day in Oklahoma since August 1936, with more than half of the state recording temperatures of 110° or higher. Oklahoma City hit 112°, tied for the city's 3nd highest temperature since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days occurred two days later--on August 3, 2012--and back on August 11, 1936 (113°.)
3) The Great Drought of 2012 The Great U.S. Drought of 2012 may well turn out to be the biggest weather story of 2012, since its full impacts have not yet been realized. The area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought peaked at 61.8% in July--the largest such area since the Dust Bowl drought of December 1939. The heat and dryness resulted in record or near-record evaporation rates, causing major impact on corn, soybean and wheat belts in addition to livestock production. Drought upstream of the Lower Mississippi River caused record and near-record low stream flows along the river in Mississippi and Louisiana, resulting in limited river transportation and commerce. Crop damages alone from the great drought are estimated at $35 billion. As the total scope of losses is realized across all lines of business in coming months, this number will climb significantly.
Figure 3. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.
4) Wildfire Season of 2012 The 2012 U.S. fire season was the 3rd worst in U.S. history, with 9.2 million acres burned--an area larger than the state of Maryland. Since the National Interagency Fire Center began keeping records in 1960, only two years have seen more area burned--2006, when 9.9 million acres burned, and 2007, when 9.3 million acres burned. New Mexico had its largest fire in state history, Colorado its most destructive and 2nd largest in state history, and Oregon had its largest fire since the 1860s. More than 3.6 million acres burned in the U.S. during August--the most on record for any August in recorded history.
Figure 4. Wunderphoto of Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire of 2012, the largest fire in New Mexico history. Wunderphoto submitted by AZMountaineer21.
5) March 2 - 3 Tornado Outbreak A massive tornado outbreak of stunning violence swept through the nation's midsection March 2 - 3, spawning deadly tornadoes that killed 41 people. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 22 and 13 dead, respectively. The scale of the outbreak was exceptional, with 70 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to southern Georgia. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak. An area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings, and tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas. The outbreak spawned two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. Total damage was estimated at $4 billion.
Figure 5. A school bus mangled by the EF-4 Henryville, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Image credit: NWS Louisville, Kentucky.
6) June 29 Multi-State Derecho A violent line of organized severe thunderstorms called a derecho swept across the U.S. from Illinois to Virginia on June 29, damaging houses, toppling trees, bringing down power lines. The storms killed 22 people, and left at least 3.4 million customers without power. The thunderstorms in a derecho (from the Spanish phrase for "straight ahead") create violent winds that blow in a straight line. The derecho was unusually intense due to extreme heat that set all-time records at ten major cities on the south side of the derecho. This heat helped create an unstable atmosphere with plenty of energy to fuel severe thunderstorms. At least 38 thunderstorms in the derecho generated wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, making the derecho one of the most severe derechoes on record. Total damage was estimated at $3.75 billion.
Figure 6. Turbulent clouds gather over Mettawa, Illinois on June 29, 2012, as the historic 2012 derecho begins to organize. Image credit: Wunderphotographer LarrySmit.
7) Hurricane Isaac Hurricane Isaac slowly lumbered ashore near the mouth of the Mississippi River on August 28 as a Category 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds. Isaac's large size and slow motion caused a storm surge more characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane--up to eleven feet--but New Orleans' new $14.5 billion levee upgrade held against Isaac's surge. The surge moved up the Mississippi River in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade. Isaac brought torrential rainfall, with more than twenty inches observed in some areas of New Orleans. Isaac also provided some drought relief to the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Isaac dumped up to 18" of rain in Florida, and disrupted the 2012 Republican Convention in Tampa. Isaac did $2 billion in damage.
Figure 7. Tropical Storm Isaac on August 28, a few hours before it intensified into a hurricane.
8) The Non-Winter of 2011-2012 "Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen. It's 2012, and the new year is ringing in another ridiculously wacky winter for the U.S. In Fargo, North Dakota yesterday, the mercury soared to 55°F, breaking a 1908 record for warmest January day in recorded history. More than 99% of North Dakota had no snow on the ground this morning, and over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year had below-average snow cover." That was the opening of my January 6, 2012 blog post, called "Remarkably dry and warm winter due to record extreme jet stream configuration." The contiguous U.S. saw its 3rd lowest snow cover on record during both winter and spring, and the winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest and 24th driest winter in U.S. history, going back to 1895. A primary cause of this warm and snowless winter was the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index was +2.52 in December 2011, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The positive NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S.
Figure 8. Flowers sprouting on January 1, 2012 in Keene, New Hampshire, thanks to unusually warm December temperatures and lack of snow. Image credit: Wunderphotographer lovne32.
9) April 30 - May 1 Severe Weather Outbreak A severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley April 30 - May 1 caused 38 tornadoes and $4 billion in damage.
10) Late-Spring Freeze: Northeast/Midwest After the record-warm "Summer in March" weather in the Great Lakes and Northeast, an April freeze damaged crops across the region. New York's fruit production was the lowest since 1948, and it was the worst fruit season for Michigan since 1945. Damage in Michigan alone was estimated at $500 million.
Honorable Mentions (text courtesy of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, with damage estimates from AON Benfield):
Severe Weather Outbreak (May): A strong cold front moving through the country on May 25 - 30 spawned 27 tornadoes from Texas to the Northeast. Damage was estimated at $2.5 billion, much of it from hail.
Severe Weather Outbreak (April): A tornado outbreak on April 13 - 14 in the Plains spawned 98 tornadoes and caused at least 6 fatalities. Damage was estimated at $1.75 billion.
Severe Weather Outbreak (June): Several days of severe storms across the Southwest spawned 25 tornadoes from June 6 - 12. Significant hail damage occurred across the Rocky Mountain Front Range, with total damage estimated at $1.75 billion.
Tropical Storm Debby/Wet Florida (June): Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Debby in early June caused damage estimated at $310 million, but Debby's rains helped break a drought in Northern Florida. Florida had its wettest summer on record, partially due to Debby.
Duluth Flooding (June): Training thunderstorms caused record flooding in and around Duluth Minnesota on June 20, with over 8 inches of rainfall observed in 24 hours in parts of the city. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, reported their highest flood heights on record. Damage was estimated at $175 million.
Pacific Northwest Winter Storm (January): A massive winter storm impacted the Pacific Northwest on January 18 - 23. Huge amounts of rain and snow fell, and hurricane-force wind gusts knocked out power to 250,000 customers. Damage was estimated at $100 million.
Hawaiian Hail Storm (March): On March 9, a cut-off low pressure system impacted the Hawaiian Islands, bringing heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. A rare EF-0 tornado hit the towns of Lanikai and Kailua on Oahu, causing minor damage. Another storm dropped a hailstone measuring 4.25 inches long, 2.25 inches tall, and 2 inches wide--the largest hailstone on record for Hawaii. Damage from the storms was estimated at $37 million.
Near-Record Low Great Lakes Levels (by end of 2012): Record warm temperatures throughout 2012 combined with low precipitation and low winter ice cover created high evaporation rates across the Great Lakes. In December, Lakes Michigan and Huron had fallen to within inches of the all-time record low lake levels set back in 1964. Low lake levels have a significant impact on recreational and commercial boating as well as tourism.
Slow Tornado Year (annual): Despite an active March, 2012 saw relatively low tornado numbers compared to recent history.
Mount Evans Tornado (July): A high elevation tornado was observed along the slope of Mount Evans at 11,900 feet--the second highest observed tornado in the U.S.
Alaska Cold Winter/Snow Record (winter): Several Alaskan locations had their coldest January on record. The monthly average temperature at Bettles, AK was -35.6°F. The statewide average January temperature was record cold--14°F below average. Record snow (134.5 inches) fell in Anchorage during the winter season, breaking the previous record set in 1954 - 55.
Alaskan Storms and Flooding (September): Several large extratropical cyclones impacted Alaska during September. Significant flooding occurred along the Sustina River and along its tributaries, causing the worse flooding in 30 years. Over 800 structures and dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed. The storms also brought early snowfall to southern portions of the state.
Death Valley sets world record for highest minimum temperature On Thursday morning, July 12, 2012 the low temperature at Death Valley, California dropped to just 107°F (41.7°C), after hitting a high of 128° (53.3°C) the previous day. Not only did the morning low temperature tie a record for the world's warmest low temperature ever recorded, the average temperature of 117.5°F was the world's warmest 24-hour temperature on record. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the only other place in the world to record a 107°F low temperature was Khasab Airport in the desert nation of Oman on June 27, 2012.
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center will release their top-ten list of U.S. weather events of 2012 on Tuesday, January 8, 2013.
Have a great holiday, everyone! I'll be back on December 26 with a new post.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 854 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
TXC225-251530- /O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-121225T1530Z/ HOUSTON TX- 854 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CST FOR CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY...
AT 851 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CROCKETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. A SECOND STORM ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOVELADY WAS ALSO SHOWING ROTATION AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CROCKETT...LOVELADY...KENNARD AND LATEXO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Merry Christmas to all the WU folks and please stay safe between today and tomorrow for our folks in the SE and Gulf States. Especially during the overnight hours tonight as we get into SE AL-South Central GA-North Florida going into the am tomorrow.
From the Santa "watch" on Christmas Eve to NOAA weather radio on Christmas Night................ Stay Safe.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6698
WHILE THERE WERE A FEW ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING...A SUCCESSFUL LAUNCH WAS STILL ACHIEVED. THE FLIGHT WAS DELAYED AROUND 20 MINUTES DUE TO A THUNDERSTORM THAT PASSED OVER THE STATION IN SLIDELL. ONCE THE SONDE WAS RELEASED IT WAS OBVIOUSLY EXTREMELY DAMP AND WENT THROUGH A DRY AREA IN WHICH THE SENSOR LIKELY COOLED RAPIDLY. PURGED ABOUT TWO MINUTES OF DATA AROUND 12K FEET TO REMOVE THE WET-BULB EFFECT FROM THE SOUNDING.
ALL OF THAT SAID...THE SOUNDING POINTS TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPECTED ALL ALONG...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. PW VALUES ARE UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE. THE LIFTED INDEX FROM THE SOUNDING WAS -7.5 WHICH SURELY POINTS TO A HIGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CAPE IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH A VALUE OF OVER 1800 J/KG AND IS LIKELY TO INCREASE GIVEN THE HIGHER VALUES SHOWN ON THE KLCH SOUNDING. 0-3 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 KNOTS WAS NOTED IN THE SOUNDING WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. THIS IS PRODUCING STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES AROUND 250 M2/S2 WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE BELOW 10K FEET AND THE FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT OF JUST OVER 10K FEET ARE GOOD INDICATORS THAT LARGE HAIL COULD BE ENCOUNTERED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. SOME LARGE HAIL HAS ALREADY FALLEN WITH SOME OF THE STORMS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING.
Even the SPC maps weren't expecting that:
OVERALL...THE IDEA IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE THAN PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND IS ONLY LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE A LULL IN CONVECTION COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
Although i would laugh it it was their purging and the tstorm that made the cape look so high :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7163
Merry Christmas everyone! It's always a pleasure to post and comment and read others posts and comments about concerns with the weather. You are all very fine people. Sorry to see the huge Tornado Outbreak in the South, hope everyone in the path of these storms heeds the warnings and stay safe. If you're experiencing snow well enjoy it, wish I could be in it.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5189
Willing to bet that tornado watch 692 gets extended past the tentative expiration time of 12z, especially given the recent increase in instability here.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 15445
Quoting KoritheMan: Willing to bet that tornado watch 692 gets extended past the tentative expiration time of 12z, especially given the recent increase in instability here.
We will get a new watch.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0846 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E AND SE TX/WRN AND NRN LA/PART OF WEST CENTRAL-SWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691...
VALID 251446Z - 251545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED BY 1450Z WITH AFFECTED WFO/S FROM NE/E TX THROUGH NRN LA TO WEST CENTRAL-SWRN MS...WITH HAIL AND A LOCAL STRONG WIND GUST POSSIBLE.
A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SERN TX/UPPER TX COAST AREA INTO SWRN LA TO THE WEST OF WW 692...AS AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.
DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING TRENDS IN UPPER AIR DATA/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL TX...WITH 140 METER/12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AT 12Z AT MAF. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/DPVA WILL SPREAD EWD INTO E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. AT 14Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR CLL THROUGH SRN LA /60-80 MILES N OF THE GULF COAST/ AND INTO FAR SERN MS TO ALONG THE COAST OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
...NERN TX/NRN LA/WEST CENTRAL-SWRN MS... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ONGOING TSTMS ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT IN MUCH OF THE NERN QUARTER OF TX...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/ADVANCE ENEWD INTO NRN LA AND EVENTUALLY WEST CENTRAL-SWRN MS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 8 C/KM PER 12Z TX AND LCH SOUNDINGS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 60 KT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE SHALLOW.
...SERN TX TO SWRN LA... STRONG VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS ARE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 MS/S2 ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 50 KT AND A 90-100 KT WLY MIDLEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD INTO SE TX...LA AND SRN MS. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NWRN GULF. HOWEVER...STRONG/DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO SERN TX THIS MORNING...PROMOTING SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 12/25/2012
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3634
They always tell you here " if you see severe weather, wait until the storm has passed, and then call the national weather service toll free and 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX."
seems fairly normal
Pffftt.. Whatever.. Thanks for the "in my face" comment GeorgiaStormz.. To think a 15yr old has nothing else to do on Christmas morning than try to punk out a 56yr elder over an honest to goodness question on the NWS product posted that I had seen.. Put me on iggy GeorgiaStormz.. I don't need your aggravation.. Seems like it's becoming a habit between you and I.. No need to respond as I have you on ignore now and thats really unfortunate as some of what you post is relevant..
**And on another footnote. I discussed with your wanting a tornado to hit you(yesterday) and you responded that "You just wanted one to hit you and no one else".. It doesn't work that way Georgia.. Someone will die or suffer from your selfishness.. The world does not revolve around a 15yr old.. If you want to chat about anything more or whatever..WU mail me.. Like I said I'm putting you on ignore until we can become civil here on the blog..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 3831
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 694 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 920 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 920 AM UNTIL 400 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 692...WW 693...
DISCUSSION...SFC-BASED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT FCST TO INCREASE AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS WW AREA THROUGH AFTN. WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMES OVERLAIN BY STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER FLOW AND ASCENT...PER SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STG/DAMAGING TORNADOES WITH ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. BOW-ECHO/QLCS CIRCULATIONS ALSO MAY BECOME TORNADIC...IN ADDITION TO SVR GUST POTENTIAL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...EDWARDS
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6368
I couldn't resist. But yeah ok no mo agw stuff today from me.
LOLOLOL!
Here, Doug. I thought you might find this interesting. LOL Merry Christmas!!!
FROM TIME-LIFE MAGAZINE:
Climate models also suggest that while global warming may not make hurricanes more common, it could well intensify the storms that do occur and make them more destructive.
But as far as winter storms go, shouldn't climate change make it too warm for snow to fall? Eventually that is likely to happen — but probably not for a while. In the meantime, warmer air could be supercharged with moisture and, as long as the temperature remains below 32°F, it will result in blizzards rather than drenching winter rainstorms. And while the mid-Atlantic has borne the brunt of the snowfall so far this winter, areas near lakes may get hit even worse. As global temperatures have risen, the winter ice cover over the Great Lakes has shrunk, which has led to even more moisture in the atmosphere and more snow in the already hard-hit Great Lakes region, according to a 2003 study in the Journal of Climate.
Really strangely quiet here this morning. Not really what I was expecting. Good bit of capping here, but it is being eroded away. How much is the question at this point. Looking forward to seeing the new specs on the recently issued tornado watch.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 921 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
TXC225-373-455-251545- /O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0039.000000T0000Z-121225T1545Z/ HOUSTON TX-TRINITY TX-POLK TX- 921 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CST FOR EAST CENTRAL HOUSTON...NORTHEASTERN TRINITY AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES...
AT 916 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF GROVETON...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROCKETT... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE WAS REPORTED NEAR PENNINGTON AT AROUND 910AM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KENNARD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6368
Quoting MAweatherboy1: 60% chance of one or more F2 tornadoes in this new watch.
What are the odds we get a PDS watch for AL/MS later?
I expect they might raise it to 80% b/c it supposed to get stronger near after-noonish and into the evening.. I hate to say it but once this warm front lifts more north then its going to get ugly.. it would be no bueno..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
It doesn't work that way Georgia.. Someone will die or suffer from your selfishness.. The world does not revolve around a 15yr old.. If you want to chat about anything more or whatever..WU mail me.. Like I said I'm putting you on ignore until wecan become civil here on the blog..
Umm... you're seriously suggesting a tornado will kill someone because one kid wished for a tornado? Do you really think that is how weather works? Do tornadoes read this blog before deciding where to hit? I always thought it had to do with weather, but I guess internet comments are how it really works.
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
Quoting MAweatherboy1: SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 921 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
TXC225-373-455-251545- /O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0039.000000T0000Z-121225T1545Z/ HOUSTON TX-TRINITY TX-POLK TX- 921 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CST FOR EAST CENTRAL HOUSTON...NORTHEASTERN TRINITY AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES...
AT 916 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF GROVETON...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROCKETT... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE WAS REPORTED NEAR PENNINGTON AT AROUND 910AM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KENNARD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Can I use the term 'Black Christmas' instead? Can I, pleeeease?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 15445
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...A SQUALL LINE WITH TORNADIC CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL DEVELOP AND OVERTAKE THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LONG TRACKED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE ISOLATED CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OUT WEST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR IN MISSISSIPPI AND WILL RACE EASTWARD...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY EARLY CHRISTMAS EVENING AND MOVING EAST OF A BRANTLEY...LUVERNE TO DESTIN LINE BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN ALONG THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BRIEF...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY...BUT DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...FLOODING SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS 925 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI...
TIBBEE CREEK NEAR TIBBEE AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY
SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH OUR NORTH CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FROM 2 TO 3 WITH HIGHER MAXIMUMS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
Quoting KoritheMan: Uh, what? I'd consider retracting that statement because it literally makes no sense.
To begin with, we shouldn't even be discussing crap like this on today of all days, even if the severe weather wasn't in the picture.
Korinthe.. He and I have had some run in's here lately and I felt I should put it to an end.. I appreciate your input but I will not re-tract what I said.. You would have to see the whole picture to understand.. There is a history behind this.. I'm not an A******.. Thats all I've got to say about it.. I don't need to take up anymore blog space.. The weather situation is much more important..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 3831
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1006 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY...
.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
Korinthe.. He and I have had some run in's here lately and I felt I should put it to an end.. I appreciate your input but I will not re-tract what I said.. You would have to see the whole picture to understand.. There is a history behind this.. I'm not an A******.. Thats all I've got to say about it.. I don't need to take up anymore blog space.. The weather situation is much more important..
You literally said that his desire to see a tornado had a direct negative effect on people, which to be frank, is dumb. That's all I was getting at. I know you're not an *******. The conflict between you two is of no concern to me.
Merry Christmas.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 15445
Umm... last I checked nature is neither good nor evil... it just seeking to level out too much or too little. Wishing or hoping doesn't change the weather. It would be sorta strange to blame a tornado on an individual person, even if they wish it were so. It takes a collective set of circumstances and quite a few things that are beyond the power of one individual. I wouldn't assign that sort of power to any mere person.
Don't they say the sun shines on the good and bad alike and rain falls on the good as well as those who do evil?
"You just wanted one to hit you and no one else".. It doesn't work that way Georgia.. Someone will die or suffer from your selfishness.. The world does not revolve around a 15yr old..
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 668
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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You don't. The tornadoes do it for you.
In late Dec., wind shear typically ample, but instability limited. Therefore, 1800 J/kg CAPE in AM Slidell, LA sounding is unsettling.
Max for the day was supposed to be 1800
what?
I've been looking at the CAPE this morning. Certainly didn't expect values to climb quite so high, much less so quickly.
I'm just messing, lol. I wasn't attempting to make sense.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
854 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
TXC225-251530-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-121225T1530Z/
HOUSTON TX-
854 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CST FOR CENTRAL
HOUSTON COUNTY...
AT 851 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR CROCKETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. A SECOND STORM ABOUT 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOVELADY WAS ALSO SHOWING ROTATION AND A POSSIBLE
TORNADO.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...LOVELADY...KENNARD AND LATEXO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3157 9522 3158 9517 3154 9514 3151 9510
3149 9511 3147 9510 3147 9506 3145 9504
3140 9497 3130 9511 3101 9553 3128 9562
3159 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1451Z 229DEG 43KT 3130 9545
was down most of yesterday and now all of today.
Bravo for AGW!
Doug, come on. lol
From the Santa "watch" on Christmas Eve to NOAA weather radio on Christmas Night................ Stay Safe.
SUCCESSFUL LAUNCH WAS STILL ACHIEVED. THE FLIGHT WAS DELAYED
AROUND 20 MINUTES DUE TO A THUNDERSTORM THAT PASSED OVER THE
STATION IN SLIDELL. ONCE THE SONDE WAS RELEASED IT WAS OBVIOUSLY
EXTREMELY DAMP AND WENT THROUGH A DRY AREA IN WHICH THE SENSOR
LIKELY COOLED RAPIDLY. PURGED ABOUT TWO MINUTES OF DATA AROUND 12K
FEET TO REMOVE THE WET-BULB EFFECT FROM THE SOUNDING.
ALL OF THAT SAID...THE SOUNDING POINTS TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPECTED
ALL ALONG...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. PW VALUES ARE
UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE.
THE LIFTED INDEX FROM THE SOUNDING WAS -7.5 WHICH SURELY POINTS
TO A HIGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CAPE IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT WITH A VALUE OF OVER 1800 J/KG AND IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
GIVEN THE HIGHER VALUES SHOWN ON THE KLCH SOUNDING. 0-3 KM SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 35 KNOTS WAS NOTED IN THE SOUNDING WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST. THIS IS PRODUCING STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES AROUND 250
M2/S2 WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS. WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE BELOW 10K FEET AND THE FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT OF JUST
OVER 10K FEET ARE GOOD INDICATORS THAT LARGE HAIL COULD BE
ENCOUNTERED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. SOME LARGE HAIL HAS ALREADY
FALLEN WITH SOME OF THE STORMS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING.
Even the SPC maps weren't expecting that:
OVERALL...THE IDEA IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE THAN PRIMED FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND IS ONLY LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE A LULL IN CONVECTION
COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.
Although i would laugh it it was their purging and the tstorm that made the cape look so high :)
I couldn't resist. But yeah ok no mo agw stuff today from me.
LOLOLOL!
just as i expected , the rotation that was taking over in post 1508 now has its own warning
tall storms:
Merry Christmas you lovable oaf.
Should be..
TWC Breaking @TWCBreaking
New tornado watch for SE Texas, SW Louisiana until 4pm CST. This includes Houston and Lake Charles
and boom
I wanna see CAPE explode to 3000 somewhere...
Why the hell not I suppose...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E AND SE TX/WRN AND NRN LA/PART OF WEST
CENTRAL-SWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691...
VALID 251446Z - 251545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED BY 1450Z WITH
AFFECTED WFO/S FROM NE/E TX THROUGH NRN LA TO WEST CENTRAL-SWRN
MS...WITH HAIL AND A LOCAL STRONG WIND GUST POSSIBLE.
A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SERN TX/UPPER TX
COAST AREA INTO SWRN LA TO THE WEST OF WW 692...AS AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.
DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING TRENDS IN UPPER AIR DATA/SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL TX...WITH 140 METER/12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS AT 12Z AT MAF. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/DPVA WILL SPREAD EWD
INTO E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. AT 14Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD
FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR CLL THROUGH SRN LA /60-80 MILES N OF THE
GULF COAST/ AND INTO FAR SERN MS TO ALONG THE COAST OF THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE.
...NERN TX/NRN LA/WEST CENTRAL-SWRN MS...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ONGOING TSTMS ALONG AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT IN MUCH OF THE NERN QUARTER OF TX...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/ADVANCE ENEWD INTO NRN LA AND EVENTUALLY WEST
CENTRAL-SWRN MS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AOA 8 C/KM PER 12Z TX AND LCH SOUNDINGS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 60 KT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE
SHALLOW.
...SERN TX TO SWRN LA...
STRONG VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS ARE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH OF
300-400 MS/S2 ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. THESE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 50 KT AND A 90-100 KT WLY MIDLEVEL JET
TRANSLATES EWD INTO SE TX...LA AND SRN MS. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WELL
ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SOME
POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NWRN GULF.
HOWEVER...STRONG/DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO SERN TX THIS
MORNING...PROMOTING SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES.
..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 12/25/2012
Pffftt..
Whatever..
Thanks for the "in my face" comment GeorgiaStormz..
To think a 15yr old has nothing else to do on Christmas morning than try to punk out a 56yr elder over an honest to goodness question on the NWS product posted that I had seen..
Put me on iggy GeorgiaStormz..
I don't need your aggravation..
Seems like it's becoming a habit between you and I..
No need to respond as I have you on ignore now and thats really unfortunate as some of what you post is relevant..
**And on another footnote.
I discussed with your wanting a tornado to hit you(yesterday) and you responded that "You just wanted one to hit you and no one else"..
It doesn't work that way Georgia..
Someone will die or suffer from your selfishness..
The world does not revolve around a 15yr old..
If you want to chat about anything more or whatever..WU mail me..
Like I said I'm putting you on ignore until we can become civil here on the blog..
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 920 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 692...WW 693...
DISCUSSION...SFC-BASED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT FCST TO INCREASE AND
SHIFT EWD ACROSS WW AREA THROUGH AFTN. WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO
SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMES OVERLAIN BY STRENGTHENING
MID-UPPER FLOW AND ASCENT...PER SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STG/DAMAGING TORNADOES
WITH ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. BOW-ECHO/QLCS CIRCULATIONS
ALSO MAY BECOME TORNADIC...IN ADDITION TO SVR GUST POTENTIAL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...EDWARDS
Here, Doug. I thought you might find this interesting. LOL Merry Christmas!!!
FROM TIME-LIFE MAGAZINE:
Climate models also suggest that while global warming may not make hurricanes more common, it could well intensify the storms that do occur and make them more destructive.
But as far as winter storms go, shouldn't climate change make it too warm for snow to fall? Eventually that is likely to happen — but probably not for a while. In the meantime, warmer air could be supercharged with moisture and, as long as the temperature remains below 32°F, it will result in blizzards rather than drenching winter rainstorms. And while the mid-Atlantic has borne the brunt of the snowfall so far this winter, areas near lakes may get hit even worse. As global temperatures have risen, the winter ice cover over the Great Lakes has shrunk, which has led to even more moisture in the atmosphere and more snow in the already hard-hit Great Lakes region, according to a 2003 study in the Journal of Climate.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,196 2294,00.html#ixzz2G4rr3snm
One watch goes into 4pm compare the other one goes to 1pm so sometimes they would overlap each specially for this situation..
What are the odds we get a PDS watch for AL/MS later?
Uh, what? I'd consider retracting that statement because it literally makes no sense.
To begin with, we shouldn't even be discussing crap like this on today of all days, even if the severe weather wasn't in the picture.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
921 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
TXC225-373-455-251545-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0039.000000T0000Z-121225T1545Z/
HOUSTON TX-TRINITY TX-POLK TX-
921 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL HOUSTON...NORTHEASTERN TRINITY AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
POLK COUNTIES...
AT 916 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF GROVETON...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROCKETT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE WAS REPORTED NEAR PENNINGTON AT AROUND 910AM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KENNARD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
I expect they might raise it to 80% b/c it supposed to get stronger near after-noonish and into the evening.. I hate to say it but once this warm front lifts more north then its going to get ugly.. it would be no bueno..
Umm... you're seriously suggesting a tornado will kill someone because one kid wished for a tornado? Do you really think that is how weather works? Do tornadoes read this blog before deciding where to hit? I always thought it had to do with weather, but I guess internet comments are how it really works.
Can I use the term 'Black Christmas' instead? Can I, pleeeease?
THE LINE WILL DEVELOP AND OVERTAKE THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. LONG TRACKED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE ISOLATED CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM OUT WEST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR IN MISSISSIPPI
AND WILL RACE EASTWARD...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
CHRISTMAS EVENING AND MOVING EAST OF A BRANTLEY...LUVERNE TO DESTIN
LINE BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN ALONG THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF
60 TO 80 MPH AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. BRIEF...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY...BUT DUE TO
THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...FLOODING SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
925 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI...
TIBBEE CREEK NEAR TIBBEE AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY
SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCING WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH OUR
NORTH CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT FROM 2 TO 3 WITH HIGHER MAXIMUMS.
Korinthe..
He and I have had some run in's here lately and I felt I should put it to an end..
I appreciate your input but I will not re-tract what I said..
You would have to see the whole picture to understand..
There is a history behind this..
I'm not an A******..
Thats all I've got to say about it..
I don't need to take up anymore blog space..
The weather situation is much more important..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1006 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY...
.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GULF
COAST NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
You literally said that his desire to see a tornado had a direct negative effect on people, which to be frank, is dumb. That's all I was getting at. I know you're not an *******. The conflict between you two is of no concern to me.
Merry Christmas.
Don't they say the sun shines on the good and bad alike and rain falls on the good as well as those who do evil?
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