It was another year of incredible weather extremes unparalleled in American history during 2012. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters during the equally insane weather year of 2011. I present for you now the top ten weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact.
Video 1. Hour-by-hour animation of infrared satellite images for 2012. The loop goes in slow-motion to feature such events as Hurricane Sandy, the June Derecho, Summer in March, and other top weather events of 2012. The date stamp is at lower left; you will want to make the animation full screen to see the date. Special thanks to wunderground's Deb Mitchell for putting this together!
1) Superstorm Sandy Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 29), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic, with over 12 inches of rain observed in parts of Maryland. In addition, Sandy generated blizzard conditions for the central and southern Appalachians with more than a foot of snow falling in six states from North Carolina to Pennsylvania, shattering October snow records. Over 130 fatalities were reported and over 8.5 million customers lost power--the second largest weather-related power outage in U.S. history, behind the 10 million that lost power during the Blizzard of 1993. Damage from Sandy is estimated at $62 billion.
Figure 1. Cabs lie flooded on October 30, 2012, in Hoboken, NJ, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. AP photo: Charles Sykes.
2) Warmest Year on Record Spring, March, July, and the annual temperature were all warmest on record in the contiguous U.S. July was the warmest month of any month in the 1,400+ months of the U.S. data record, going back to 1895. The spring temperature departure from average was the largest on record for any season, and March temperatures had the second largest warm departure from average of any month in U.S. history. All-time hottest temperature records were set over approximately 7% of the area of the contiguous U.S., according to a database of 298 major U.S. cities maintained by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Given the very warm December temperatures so far, the final 2012 annual temperature is likely to break the previous warmest year on record (1998) by at least 0.7°F--a colossal margin to break an annual record by. It is likely that 15 states will end up with their warmest year on record in 2012, and 42 states will have a top-ten warmest year.
Figure 2. One of 2012's incredibly hot days: high temperatures on August 1 in Oklahoma from the Oklahoma Mesonet. It was the hottest day in Oklahoma since August 1936, with more than half of the state recording temperatures of 110° or higher. Oklahoma City hit 112°, tied for the city's 3nd highest temperature since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days occurred two days later--on August 3, 2012--and back on August 11, 1936 (113°.)
3) The Great Drought of 2012 The Great U.S. Drought of 2012 may well turn out to be the biggest weather story of 2012, since its full impacts have not yet been realized. The area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought peaked at 61.8% in July--the largest such area since the Dust Bowl drought of December 1939. The heat and dryness resulted in record or near-record evaporation rates, causing major impact on corn, soybean and wheat belts in addition to livestock production. Drought upstream of the Lower Mississippi River caused record and near-record low stream flows along the river in Mississippi and Louisiana, resulting in limited river transportation and commerce. Crop damages alone from the great drought are estimated at $35 billion. As the total scope of losses is realized across all lines of business in coming months, this number will climb significantly.
Figure 3. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.
4) Wildfire Season of 2012 The 2012 U.S. fire season was the 3rd worst in U.S. history, with 9.2 million acres burned--an area larger than the state of Maryland. Since the National Interagency Fire Center began keeping records in 1960, only two years have seen more area burned--2006, when 9.9 million acres burned, and 2007, when 9.3 million acres burned. New Mexico had its largest fire in state history, Colorado its most destructive and 2nd largest in state history, and Oregon had its largest fire since the 1860s. More than 3.6 million acres burned in the U.S. during August--the most on record for any August in recorded history.
Figure 4. Wunderphoto of Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire of 2012, the largest fire in New Mexico history. Wunderphoto submitted by AZMountaineer21.
5) March 2 - 3 Tornado Outbreak A massive tornado outbreak of stunning violence swept through the nation's midsection March 2 - 3, spawning deadly tornadoes that killed 41 people. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 22 and 13 dead, respectively. The scale of the outbreak was exceptional, with 70 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to southern Georgia. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak. An area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings, and tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas. The outbreak spawned two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. Total damage was estimated at $4 billion.
Figure 5. A school bus mangled by the EF-4 Henryville, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Image credit: NWS Louisville, Kentucky.
6) June 29 Multi-State Derecho A violent line of organized severe thunderstorms called a derecho swept across the U.S. from Illinois to Virginia on June 29, damaging houses, toppling trees, bringing down power lines. The storms killed 22 people, and left at least 3.4 million customers without power. The thunderstorms in a derecho (from the Spanish phrase for "straight ahead") create violent winds that blow in a straight line. The derecho was unusually intense due to extreme heat that set all-time records at ten major cities on the south side of the derecho. This heat helped create an unstable atmosphere with plenty of energy to fuel severe thunderstorms. At least 38 thunderstorms in the derecho generated wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, making the derecho one of the most severe derechoes on record. Total damage was estimated at $3.75 billion.
Figure 6. Turbulent clouds gather over Mettawa, Illinois on June 29, 2012, as the historic 2012 derecho begins to organize. Image credit: Wunderphotographer LarrySmit.
7) Hurricane Isaac Hurricane Isaac slowly lumbered ashore near the mouth of the Mississippi River on August 28 as a Category 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds. Isaac's large size and slow motion caused a storm surge more characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane--up to eleven feet--but New Orleans' new $14.5 billion levee upgrade held against Isaac's surge. The surge moved up the Mississippi River in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade. Isaac brought torrential rainfall, with more than twenty inches observed in some areas of New Orleans. Isaac also provided some drought relief to the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Isaac dumped up to 18" of rain in Florida, and disrupted the 2012 Republican Convention in Tampa. Isaac did $2 billion in damage.
Figure 7. Tropical Storm Isaac on August 28, a few hours before it intensified into a hurricane.
8) The Non-Winter of 2011-2012 "Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen. It's 2012, and the new year is ringing in another ridiculously wacky winter for the U.S. In Fargo, North Dakota yesterday, the mercury soared to 55°F, breaking a 1908 record for warmest January day in recorded history. More than 99% of North Dakota had no snow on the ground this morning, and over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year had below-average snow cover." That was the opening of my January 6, 2012 blog post, called "Remarkably dry and warm winter due to record extreme jet stream configuration." The contiguous U.S. saw its 3rd lowest snow cover on record during both winter and spring, and the winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest and 24th driest winter in U.S. history, going back to 1895. A primary cause of this warm and snowless winter was the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index was +2.52 in December 2011, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The positive NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S.
Figure 8. Flowers sprouting on January 1, 2012 in Keene, New Hampshire, thanks to unusually warm December temperatures and lack of snow. Image credit: Wunderphotographer lovne32.
9) April 30 - May 1 Severe Weather Outbreak A severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley April 30 - May 1 caused 38 tornadoes and $4 billion in damage.
10) Late-Spring Freeze: Northeast/Midwest After the record-warm "Summer in March" weather in the Great Lakes and Northeast, an April freeze damaged crops across the region. New York's fruit production was the lowest since 1948, and it was the worst fruit season for Michigan since 1945. Damage in Michigan alone was estimated at $500 million.
Honorable Mentions (text courtesy of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, with damage estimates from AON Benfield):
Severe Weather Outbreak (May): A strong cold front moving through the country on May 25 - 30 spawned 27 tornadoes from Texas to the Northeast. Damage was estimated at $2.5 billion, much of it from hail.
Severe Weather Outbreak (April): A tornado outbreak on April 13 - 14 in the Plains spawned 98 tornadoes and caused at least 6 fatalities. Damage was estimated at $1.75 billion.
Severe Weather Outbreak (June): Several days of severe storms across the Southwest spawned 25 tornadoes from June 6 - 12. Significant hail damage occurred across the Rocky Mountain Front Range, with total damage estimated at $1.75 billion.
Tropical Storm Debby/Wet Florida (June): Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Debby in early June caused damage estimated at $310 million, but Debby's rains helped break a drought in Northern Florida. Florida had its wettest summer on record, partially due to Debby.
Duluth Flooding (June): Training thunderstorms caused record flooding in and around Duluth Minnesota on June 20, with over 8 inches of rainfall observed in 24 hours in parts of the city. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, reported their highest flood heights on record. Damage was estimated at $175 million.
Pacific Northwest Winter Storm (January): A massive winter storm impacted the Pacific Northwest on January 18 - 23. Huge amounts of rain and snow fell, and hurricane-force wind gusts knocked out power to 250,000 customers. Damage was estimated at $100 million.
Hawaiian Hail Storm (March): On March 9, a cut-off low pressure system impacted the Hawaiian Islands, bringing heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. A rare EF-0 tornado hit the towns of Lanikai and Kailua on Oahu, causing minor damage. Another storm dropped a hailstone measuring 4.25 inches long, 2.25 inches tall, and 2 inches wide--the largest hailstone on record for Hawaii. Damage from the storms was estimated at $37 million.
Near-Record Low Great Lakes Levels (by end of 2012): Record warm temperatures throughout 2012 combined with low precipitation and low winter ice cover created high evaporation rates across the Great Lakes. In December, Lakes Michigan and Huron had fallen to within inches of the all-time record low lake levels set back in 1964. Low lake levels have a significant impact on recreational and commercial boating as well as tourism.
Slow Tornado Year (annual): Despite an active March, 2012 saw relatively low tornado numbers compared to recent history.
Mount Evans Tornado (July): A high elevation tornado was observed along the slope of Mount Evans at 11,900 feet--the second highest observed tornado in the U.S.
Alaska Cold Winter/Snow Record (winter): Several Alaskan locations had their coldest January on record. The monthly average temperature at Bettles, AK was -35.6°F. The statewide average January temperature was record cold--14°F below average. Record snow (134.5 inches) fell in Anchorage during the winter season, breaking the previous record set in 1954 - 55.
Alaskan Storms and Flooding (September): Several large extratropical cyclones impacted Alaska during September. Significant flooding occurred along the Sustina River and along its tributaries, causing the worse flooding in 30 years. Over 800 structures and dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed. The storms also brought early snowfall to southern portions of the state.
Death Valley sets world record for highest minimum temperature On Thursday morning, July 12, 2012 the low temperature at Death Valley, California dropped to just 107°F (41.7°C), after hitting a high of 128° (53.3°C) the previous day. Not only did the morning low temperature tie a record for the world's warmest low temperature ever recorded, the average temperature of 117.5°F was the world's warmest 24-hour temperature on record. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the only other place in the world to record a 107°F low temperature was Khasab Airport in the desert nation of Oman on June 27, 2012.
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center will release their top-ten list of U.S. weather events of 2012 on Tuesday, January 8, 2013.
Have a great holiday, everyone! I'll be back on December 26 with a new post.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 435 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
.SHORT TERM... A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DONALDSONVILLE TO PASCAGOULA ARE INCLUDED IN THE MODERATE RISK. THIS INCLUDES BATON ROUGE...HAMMOND... SLIDELL...GULFPORT AND MCCOMB. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK...HOWEVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS AT RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE TODAY. SPC ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...DEFINED AS STRONG TORNADOES (EF2 OR GREATER) OR WINDS GREATER THAN 75 MILES PER HOUR. THIS THREAT WOULD BE PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY AREAS IN THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENTLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NORTHWARD SURGING WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REALLY BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATER ON THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PLACING THE REGION IN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THE AREA COULD BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WOULD ONLY MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE 1000 TO 1800 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 60 TO 80 KNOT RANGE. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO DEPICT MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HELICITY VALUES ARE STILL VERY HIGH WELL OVER 300 M2/S2 FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS VERY STRONG WITH A 500 MB JET PUSHING 100 KNOTS AND AN 850 MB JET AROUND 50 TO 60 KNOTS FOR THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH.
STILL THINKING THAT THIS WILL UNFOLD AS A SQUALL LINE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER VORT MAX WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. THE DISCRETE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL CARRY THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES AS THEY WILL HAVE UNIMPEDED ACCESS TO THE VERY PRIME ATMOSPHERE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE TODAY. MAIN THREAT WINDOW WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 2PM THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND ANY TIME DURING THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AGAIN AS STATED ABOVE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE ON THE TABLE TODAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION TODAY AS EVERYTHING ABOUT THIS SETUP SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS CHRISTMAS DAY. 13/MH
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1402. GeorgiaStormz11:34 AM GMT on December 25, 2012
Why does the HRRR site go down so often?
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 522 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
.DISCUSSION... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691 IS OUT UNTIL 9 AM FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARISHES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 60S FROM BEAUMONT TO LAFAYETTE. A FEW STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWN SOME ROTATION WITH OTHERS INDICATING HAIL SPIKES. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS NOW LIFTING INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME.
THIS IS THE FIRST ROUND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE THREAT TODAY WILL BE FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WINDS WILL PICKUP THIS MORNING AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL COUNTIES IN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TOWARDS SUNSET. RAINS TO END BY THIS EVE ACROSS CNTRL LA.
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1405. GeorgiaStormz11:44 AM GMT on December 25, 2012
I'm telling you guys, more of central alabama is in trouble than currently anticipated:
EHI:
CAPE:
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Day 2 discussion from the SPC..this is the day after Christmas where people will be out and shopping..I will be back later if I can
...CAROLINAS/GA/NRN FL/MID-ATLANTIC... A POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY. AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A SLAB OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EXTENDING FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS SWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS SQUALL-LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AROUND MIDDAY WHERE AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. A POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FROM LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT COLUMBIA SC WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F DURING THE MORNING ALLOWING MLCAPE VALUES TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY 18Z. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 65 KT AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL-LINE. A STRONG TORNADO COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC HEATING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ENDS UP A BIT MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM JUST EAST OF COLUMBIA SC EXTENDING NEWD TO JUST SOUTH OF RALEIGH NC WHERE A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT HATCHED AREA IS MAINTAINED. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AS A LINEAR MCS MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GA AROUND MIDDAY. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOW 50 TO 60 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC SUGGESTING ANY FAST-MOVING SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE.
AT THIS POINT...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND IS PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ERN GULF COAST STATES. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE RETURN AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SFC HEATING.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz: I'm telling you guys, more of central alabama is in trouble than currently anticipated:
EHI:
CAPE:
Ugly!
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1416. GeorgiaStormz12:43 PM GMT on December 25, 2012
We are still a bit concerned for a secondary severe weather threat during the day today. If this occurs, it will likely be over western portions of the CWA(southeast Alabama SW GA FL PAnhandle) (especially SE AL) where the potential for Tornadic Supercells associated with the initial Warm Front cannot be discounted.
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1418. EricSpittle12:51 PM GMT on December 25, 2012
Merry Christmas everyone, and those of you in the path of these storms please stay safe :)
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1419. indianrivguy12:54 PM GMT on December 25, 2012
Here is a link for a wind map. I cannot figure out how to save this thing and would appreciate some help if y'all know how. It is very cool to watch.. mesmerizing even..right now, it appears that Texas is swallowing all the air in the midwest...
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1420. GeorgiaStormz12:55 PM GMT on December 25, 2012
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 433 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
.DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY FOR SE TX ATTM AS THE FIRST BATCH OF (ELEVATED) STORMS CONTINUES TO RACE OFF TO THE NE. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL EXPECTING TSRA REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORN- ING ON/NEAR THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...PRONOUNCED DIFFLUENCE A- LOFT NOTED OVER SE TX THIS MORNING AS DEWPTS CLIMB IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. SEVERE TSRA WATCH ALREADY POSTED FOR THE NRN PART OF THE CWA BUT AS PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...THE THREAT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TO SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADIC CELLS FOR MOST OF SE TX FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN TODAY.
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Storms got within 80 to 100 miles from me. Too bad the Center is north of Lubbock keeps South Central Texas mostly dry. The humidity here this morning before this front is only 50 percent so the Air over Texas is still pretty darn dry. Merry Christmas
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BATON ROUGE... NORTHWESTERN IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... SOUTHEASTERN POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW ROADS... WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PORT ALLEN...
* UNTIL 715 AM CST
* AT 639 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF RAMAH...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KROTZ SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman: Storms got within 80 to 100 miles from me. Too bad the Center is north of Lubbock keeps South Central Texas mostly dry. The humidity here this morning before this front is only 50 percent so the Air over Texas is still pretty darn dry. Merry Christmas
good morning and Merry Christmas to you and yours
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.WIND AND SEA IMPACT... A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ORGANIZING OVER EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE INTENSIFYING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY... CAUSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND WITH ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. WHILE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...THE WINDS AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE STRONG. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS STORM SYSTEM.
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Quoting LargoFl: good morning and Merry Christmas to you and yours
Tough watching good rains in distance when you havent had one in 90 days but at least some of Texas is getting rain. If El Nino would have developed South Texas would have been receiving rains also because the Storm Track would have been much further South into Mexico but since it didnt unfortunately rains over Texas should stay in North and East Texas. This pattern is not suppose to change in the next 3 to 6 months according to forecast so there is a decent chance south and west Texas could have their dryest weather pattern ever? 2 years ago was the dryest 10 to 12 month period ever here and since Sept 26th we are much dryer than we were then so it is kind of scary. We do have a very high fire danger today thru tonight. When I had 9 to 10 inches 2 years ago I received 2.5 inches of rain from Oct thru Dec. This year most places are sitting at around 1 inch here for the past 3 months, west of Austin much less than that. Hopefully some rain will develop along the front as it comes thru?
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Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13 TROPICAL STORM WUKONG (T1225) 21:00 PM JST December 25 2012 ===============================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Philippines
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Wukong (1000 hPa) located at 10.4N 126.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds =============== 120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity ======================== 24 HRS: 11.2N 120.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea 48 HRS: 11.7N 116.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea 72 HRS: 12.7N 113.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
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Tropical Storm "QUINTA" has intensified further as it continues to move towards eastern Visayas
At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Quinta [994 hPa] located at 10.3N 126.5E or 90 km southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.
Signal Warnings =================
Signal Warning #2 -----------------
Visayas region ------------- 1. Eastern Samar 2. Western samar 3. Leyte 4. Southern Leyte 5. northern Cebu 6. Camotes Island 7. Bohol 8. Biliran
Mindanao region --------------- 1. Dinagat Province 2. Siargao Island 3. Surigao Del Norte
Signal Warning #1 -----------------
Visayas region ------------- 1. Northern Samar 2. Masbate 3. Ticao Island 4. Aklan 5. Capiz 6. Antique 7. Iloilo 8. Guimaras 9. Negros provinces 10. Siquijor 11. rest of Cebu
Mindanao region --------------- 1. Agusan Del Norte 2. Agusan Del Sur 3. Misamis Oriental 4. Camiguin 5. Surigao Del Sur
Additional Information ====================== Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 350 km diameter of the tropical storm.
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of Visayas and Mindanao.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36919
AT 706 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF CATAHOULA...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GROSSE TETE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...GROSSE TETE...PLAQUEMINE...ADDIS...BRUSLY...PORT ALLEN...GARDERE...OAK HILLS PLACE...BATON ROUGE...WESTMINSTER...BATON ROUGE AIRPORT AND BAKER
THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511
While alot of the Nation is getting Rain, Storms and Snow this is my stinking weather and the way it has been past 3 months here :
Red Flag Warning URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 426 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CST TUESDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
.IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...DRY AND COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS AROUND NOON TUESDAY BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-252200- /O.CON.KEWX.FW.W.0005.121225T1800Z-121226T0100Z/ LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE- KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAV ERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- 426 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* AFFECTED AREA...THE FOLLOWING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES... LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON...VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...REAL... KERR...BANDERA...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...BLANCO...HA YS... TRAVIS...BASTROP...LEE...KINNEY...UVALDE...MEDINA. ..BEXAR... COMAL...GUADALUPE...CALDWELL...FAYETTE...MAVERICK. ..ZAVALA... FRIO...ATASCOSA...WILSON...KARNES...GONZALES...DE WITT... LAVACA...DIMMIT.
* 20-FOOT WIND...20-30 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
* HUMIDITY...13-19 PERCENT.
* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND DRIVEN WILDFIRES.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
Quoting bohonkweatherman: Storms got within 80 to 100 miles from me. Too bad the Center is north of Lubbock keeps South Central Texas mostly dry. The humidity here this morning before this front is only 50 percent so the Air over Texas is still pretty darn dry. Merry Christmas
Yeah that dry slot may keep out the bad supercells where you are.. But winds look to be on the rise..(see link at post# 1419 by indianriverguy)
Good Morning All and Merry Christmas!!
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 4098
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 720 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES...RAYNE...CROWLEY... NORTHWESTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES GUEYDAN...
* UNTIL 745 AM CST
* AT 718 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GUEYDAN... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MORSE BY 730 AM CST... LYONS POINT AND EGAN BY 735 AM CST... CROWLEY BY 740 AM CST... RAYNE...MAXIE AND BRANCH BY 745 AM CST...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
&&
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 728 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
LAC001-113-251345- /O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0063.000000T0000Z-121225T1345Z/ ACADIA LA-VERMILION LA- 728 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CST FOR NORTHWESTERN VERMILION AND ACADIA PARISHES...
AT 727 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A TORNADO ON RADAR. THIS RADAR INDICATED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RICEVILLE..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
RADAR ALSO INDICATED ANOTHER POSSIBLE DEVELOPING TORNADO BETWEEN BRANCH AND RAYNE ALSO MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MORSE...MIDLAND...LYONS POINT...ESTHERWOOD...EGAN...CROWLEY... MAXIE...RAYNE AND BRANCH
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION...STAY INDOORS AND AVOID WINDOWS. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR SMALL ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 720 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES...RAYNE...CROWLEY... NORTHWESTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES GUEYDAN...
* UNTIL 745 AM CST
* AT 718 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GUEYDAN... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MORSE BY 730 AM CST... LYONS POINT AND EGAN BY 735 AM CST... CROWLEY BY 740 AM CST... RAYNE...MAXIE AND BRANCH BY 745 AM CST...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
&&
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.
Quoting indianrivguy: Here is a link for a wind map. I cannot figure out how to save this thing and would appreciate some help if y'all know how. It is very cool to watch.. mesmerizing even..right now, it appears that Texas is swallowing all the air in the midwest...
Here in Austin its sunny outside. :P Unfortunately it looks like there won't be much rain, if any at all. Good thing the other parts of Texas are getting drought-relief rain at the moment, as for here it looks like we could be seeing wildfires for Christmas.
Member Since: March 3, 2012 Posts: 14 Comments: 233
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
435 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
.SHORT TERM...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY BRINGING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DONALDSONVILLE TO PASCAGOULA ARE
INCLUDED IN THE MODERATE RISK. THIS INCLUDES BATON ROUGE...HAMMOND...
SLIDELL...GULFPORT AND MCCOMB. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE IN A SLIGHT
RISK...HOWEVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS AT RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE TODAY. SPC ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...DEFINED AS STRONG TORNADOES (EF2 OR
GREATER) OR WINDS GREATER THAN 75 MILES PER HOUR. THIS THREAT
WOULD BE PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY
AND IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY AREAS IN THE MODERATE
RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENTLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NORTHWARD SURGING WARM
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL REALLY BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATER ON THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PLACING THE REGION
IN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THE AREA COULD BREAK OUT OF THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WOULD ONLY MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE MORE
UNSTABLE. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
RANGE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
60 TO 80 KNOT RANGE. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO DEPICT
MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HELICITY VALUES ARE STILL VERY HIGH WELL OVER 300 M2/S2 FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS VERY
STRONG WITH A 500 MB JET PUSHING 100 KNOTS AND AN 850 MB JET
AROUND 50 TO 60 KNOTS FOR THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTH.
STILL THINKING THAT THIS WILL UNFOLD AS A SQUALL LINE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPPER VORT MAX WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE. THE DISCRETE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL
CARRY THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES AS
THEY WILL HAVE UNIMPEDED ACCESS TO THE VERY PRIME ATMOSPHERE THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE TODAY. MAIN THREAT WINDOW WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 2PM THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND ANY TIME
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AGAIN AS STATED
ABOVE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE ON THE TABLE TODAY. PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION TODAY AS EVERYTHING ABOUT THIS SETUP
SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST THIS CHRISTMAS DAY. 13/MH
522 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691 IS OUT UNTIL 9 AM FOR COUNTIES
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARISHES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 60S FROM BEAUMONT TO
LAFAYETTE. A FEW STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWN SOME ROTATION WITH
OTHERS INDICATING HAIL SPIKES. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS NOW
LIFTING INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA AT THIS
TIME.
THIS IS THE FIRST ROUND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE THREAT TODAY WILL BE FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES...STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WINDS WILL PICKUP THIS MORNING AND A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL
COUNTIES IN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TOWARDS SUNSET. RAINS TO END BY THIS EVE ACROSS
CNTRL LA.
EHI:
CAPE:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS
605 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
TO: ALL SR NWS OFFICES
FROM: SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS
SUBJECT: GOES-13 (GOES-EAST) RAPID SCAN OPERATIONAL SCHEDULE
GOES-EAST RSO HAVE BEEN SCHEDULED STARTING AT 1214 UTD THROUGH 12/26
0145 UTC IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.
Naked IR Loop
I hope yours was wonderful Aussie!
oh and stay safe..seems like the "event is trying to start"
Everyone in the Eastern US stay safe as this system develops over the next 24-48!
Elevated storms thoguh, need that cap to break for the surface based ones
...CAROLINAS/GA/NRN FL/MID-ATLANTIC...
A POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY. AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A SLAB OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS SWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF
COAST STATES ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS
SQUALL-LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AROUND MIDDAY WHERE AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. A
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FROM LATE
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT COLUMBIA SC WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY INCREASE SFC
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F DURING THE MORNING ALLOWING MLCAPE
VALUES TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY 18Z. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 65 KT AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN
DISCRETE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL-LINE. A STRONG TORNADO
COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC HEATING ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ENDS UP A BIT MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM JUST
EAST OF COLUMBIA SC EXTENDING NEWD TO JUST SOUTH OF RALEIGH NC WHERE
A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT HATCHED AREA IS
MAINTAINED. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AS A LINEAR MCS
MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GA AROUND MIDDAY.
FORECASTS SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOW 50 TO 60 KT OF FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SFC SUGGESTING ANY FAST-MOVING SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE.
AT THIS POINT...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS STILL
IN QUESTION. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND IS PROBABLY THE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ERN GULF
COAST STATES. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE RETURN AND A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SFC HEATING.
Ugly!
severe weather threat during the day today. If this occurs, it will
likely be over western portions of the CWA(southeast Alabama SW GA FL PAnhandle) (especially SE AL) where
the potential for Tornadic Supercells associated with the initial
Warm Front cannot be discounted.
wind map
433 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY FOR SE TX ATTM AS THE
FIRST BATCH OF (ELEVATED) STORMS CONTINUES TO RACE OFF TO THE NE.
HOWEVER WE ARE STILL EXPECTING TSRA REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORN-
ING ON/NEAR THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...PRONOUNCED DIFFLUENCE A-
LOFT NOTED OVER SE TX THIS MORNING AS DEWPTS CLIMB IN THE WAKE OF
THE WARM FRONT. SEVERE TSRA WATCH ALREADY POSTED FOR THE NRN PART
OF THE CWA BUT AS PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...THE THREAT EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE TO SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADIC CELLS FOR MOST OF SE TX
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN TODAY.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BATON ROUGE...
NORTHWESTERN IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW ROADS...
WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PORT ALLEN...
* UNTIL 715 AM CST
* AT 639 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
WEST OF RAMAH...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KROTZ SPRINGS...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.
LSU Low cloud Sat Imagery
loop embedded
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ORGANIZING OVER EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE INTENSIFYING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY...
CAUSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER MUCH OF THE
WATERS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
WITH ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. WHILE MOISTURE
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...THE WINDS AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE STRONG. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS STORM SYSTEM.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM WUKONG (T1225)
21:00 PM JST December 25 2012
===============================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Philippines
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Wukong (1000 hPa) located at 10.4N 126.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 11.2N 120.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
48 HRS: 11.7N 116.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 12.7N 113.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL STORM QUINTA
5:00 PM PhST December 25 2012
==============================
Tropical Storm "QUINTA" has intensified further as it continues to move towards eastern Visayas
At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Quinta [994 hPa] located at 10.3N 126.5E or 90 km southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.
Signal Warnings
=================
Signal Warning #2
-----------------
Visayas region
-------------
1. Eastern Samar
2. Western samar
3. Leyte
4. Southern Leyte
5. northern Cebu
6. Camotes Island
7. Bohol
8. Biliran
Mindanao region
---------------
1. Dinagat Province
2. Siargao Island
3. Surigao Del Norte
Signal Warning #1
-----------------
Visayas region
-------------
1. Northern Samar
2. Masbate
3. Ticao Island
4. Aklan
5. Capiz
6. Antique
7. Iloilo
8. Guimaras
9. Negros provinces
10. Siquijor
11. rest of Cebu
Mindanao region
---------------
1. Agusan Del Norte
2. Agusan Del Sur
3. Misamis Oriental
4. Camiguin
5. Surigao Del Sur
Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 350 km diameter of the tropical storm.
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of Visayas and Mindanao.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
711 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING WEST BATON ROUGE
PARISH...EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH...IBERVILLE PARISH...
AT 706 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF CATAHOULA...OR ABOUT 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GROSSE TETE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...GROSSE
TETE...PLAQUEMINE...ADDIS...BRUSLY...PORT ALLEN...GARDERE...OAK HILLS
PLACE...BATON ROUGE...WESTMINSTER...BATON ROUGE AIRPORT AND BAKER
THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
$$
Red Flag Warning
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
426 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CST TUESDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
.IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...DRY AND COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO
CRITICAL LEVELS AROUND NOON TUESDAY BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WILL INCREASE AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-252200-
/O.CON.KEWX.FW.W.0005.121225T1800Z-121226T0100Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE- KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAV ERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
426 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* AFFECTED AREA...THE FOLLOWING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES...
LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON...VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...REAL...
KERR...BANDERA...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...BLANCO...HA YS...
TRAVIS...BASTROP...LEE...KINNEY...UVALDE...MEDINA. ..BEXAR...
COMAL...GUADALUPE...CALDWELL...FAYETTE...MAVERICK. ..ZAVALA...
FRIO...ATASCOSA...WILSON...KARNES...GONZALES...DE WITT...
LAVACA...DIMMIT.
* 20-FOOT WIND...20-30 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
* HUMIDITY...13-19 PERCENT.
* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. AVOID THE USE OF
OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE SPARKS.
ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW QUICKLY INTO
DANGEROUS WIND DRIVEN WILDFIRES.
Yeah that dry slot may keep out the bad supercells where you are..
But winds look to be on the rise..(see link at post# 1419 by indianriverguy)
Good Morning All and Merry Christmas!!
Glad that you were here. Truely El Yunque rain forest is one of ther best places in the world to see.
LAC001-113-251345-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0063.121225T1320Z-121225T1345Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...RAYNE...CROWLEY...
NORTHWESTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES GUEYDAN...
* UNTIL 745 AM CST
* AT 718 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GUEYDAN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MORSE BY 730 AM CST...
LYONS POINT AND EGAN BY 735 AM CST...
CROWLEY BY 740 AM CST...
RAYNE...MAXIE AND BRANCH BY 745 AM CST...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
&&
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.
LAT...LON 2996 9262 3004 9262 3004 9269 3007 9267
3008 9263 3009 9262 3011 9263 3042 9236
3027 9216 3020 9225 3019 9225 2991 9254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1321Z 219DEG 39KT 3004 9255
$$
27 BRAZZELL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
728 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
LAC001-113-251345-
/O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0063.000000T0000Z-121225T1345Z/
ACADIA LA-VERMILION LA-
728 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN VERMILION AND ACADIA PARISHES...
AT 727 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO ON RADAR. THIS RADAR INDICATED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
RICEVILLE..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
RADAR ALSO INDICATED ANOTHER POSSIBLE DEVELOPING TORNADO BETWEEN
BRANCH AND RAYNE ALSO MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MORSE...MIDLAND...LYONS POINT...ESTHERWOOD...EGAN...CROWLEY...
MAXIE...RAYNE AND BRANCH
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION...STAY INDOORS AND AVOID WINDOWS. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR SMALL ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
I've never seen them put out a product with a phone # before..
I'm wondering if they are having trouble getting SkyWarn/Spotters today??
Yeah I could only copy the address to link..
Very cool map.. )
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