It was another year of incredible weather extremes unparalleled in American history during 2012. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters during the equally insane weather year of 2011. I present for you now the top ten weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact.
Video 1. Hour-by-hour animation of infrared satellite images for 2012. The loop goes in slow-motion to feature such events as Hurricane Sandy, the June Derecho, Summer in March, and other top weather events of 2012. The date stamp is at lower left; you will want to make the animation full screen to see the date. Special thanks to wunderground's Deb Mitchell for putting this together!
1) Superstorm Sandy Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 29), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic, with over 12 inches of rain observed in parts of Maryland. In addition, Sandy generated blizzard conditions for the central and southern Appalachians with more than a foot of snow falling in six states from North Carolina to Pennsylvania, shattering October snow records. Over 130 fatalities were reported and over 8.5 million customers lost power--the second largest weather-related power outage in U.S. history, behind the 10 million that lost power during the Blizzard of 1993. Damage from Sandy is estimated at $62 billion.
Figure 1. Cabs lie flooded on October 30, 2012, in Hoboken, NJ, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. AP photo: Charles Sykes.
2) Warmest Year on Record Spring, March, July, and the annual temperature were all warmest on record in the contiguous U.S. July was the warmest month of any month in the 1,400+ months of the U.S. data record, going back to 1895. The spring temperature departure from average was the largest on record for any season, and March temperatures had the second largest warm departure from average of any month in U.S. history. All-time hottest temperature records were set over approximately 7% of the area of the contiguous U.S., according to a database of 298 major U.S. cities maintained by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Given the very warm December temperatures so far, the final 2012 annual temperature is likely to break the previous warmest year on record (1998) by at least 0.7°F--a colossal margin to break an annual record by. It is likely that 15 states will end up with their warmest year on record in 2012, and 42 states will have a top-ten warmest year.
Figure 2. One of 2012's incredibly hot days: high temperatures on August 1 in Oklahoma from the Oklahoma Mesonet. It was the hottest day in Oklahoma since August 1936, with more than half of the state recording temperatures of 110° or higher. Oklahoma City hit 112°, tied for the city's 3nd highest temperature since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days occurred two days later--on August 3, 2012--and back on August 11, 1936 (113°.)
3) The Great Drought of 2012 The Great U.S. Drought of 2012 may well turn out to be the biggest weather story of 2012, since its full impacts have not yet been realized. The area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought peaked at 61.8% in July--the largest such area since the Dust Bowl drought of December 1939. The heat and dryness resulted in record or near-record evaporation rates, causing major impact on corn, soybean and wheat belts in addition to livestock production. Drought upstream of the Lower Mississippi River caused record and near-record low stream flows along the river in Mississippi and Louisiana, resulting in limited river transportation and commerce. Crop damages alone from the great drought are estimated at $35 billion. As the total scope of losses is realized across all lines of business in coming months, this number will climb significantly.
Figure 3. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.
4) Wildfire Season of 2012 The 2012 U.S. fire season was the 3rd worst in U.S. history, with 9.2 million acres burned--an area larger than the state of Maryland. Since the National Interagency Fire Center began keeping records in 1960, only two years have seen more area burned--2006, when 9.9 million acres burned, and 2007, when 9.3 million acres burned. New Mexico had its largest fire in state history, Colorado its most destructive and 2nd largest in state history, and Oregon had its largest fire since the 1860s. More than 3.6 million acres burned in the U.S. during August--the most on record for any August in recorded history.
Figure 4. Wunderphoto of Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire of 2012, the largest fire in New Mexico history. Wunderphoto submitted by AZMountaineer21.
5) March 2 - 3 Tornado Outbreak A massive tornado outbreak of stunning violence swept through the nation's midsection March 2 - 3, spawning deadly tornadoes that killed 41 people. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 22 and 13 dead, respectively. The scale of the outbreak was exceptional, with 70 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to southern Georgia. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak. An area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings, and tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas. The outbreak spawned two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. Total damage was estimated at $4 billion.
Figure 5. A school bus mangled by the EF-4 Henryville, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Image credit: NWS Louisville, Kentucky.
6) June 29 Multi-State Derecho A violent line of organized severe thunderstorms called a derecho swept across the U.S. from Illinois to Virginia on June 29, damaging houses, toppling trees, bringing down power lines. The storms killed 22 people, and left at least 3.4 million customers without power. The thunderstorms in a derecho (from the Spanish phrase for "straight ahead") create violent winds that blow in a straight line. The derecho was unusually intense due to extreme heat that set all-time records at ten major cities on the south side of the derecho. This heat helped create an unstable atmosphere with plenty of energy to fuel severe thunderstorms. At least 38 thunderstorms in the derecho generated wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, making the derecho one of the most severe derechoes on record. Total damage was estimated at $3.75 billion.
Figure 6. Turbulent clouds gather over Mettawa, Illinois on June 29, 2012, as the historic 2012 derecho begins to organize. Image credit: Wunderphotographer LarrySmit.
7) Hurricane Isaac Hurricane Isaac slowly lumbered ashore near the mouth of the Mississippi River on August 28 as a Category 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds. Isaac's large size and slow motion caused a storm surge more characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane--up to eleven feet--but New Orleans' new $14.5 billion levee upgrade held against Isaac's surge. The surge moved up the Mississippi River in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade. Isaac brought torrential rainfall, with more than twenty inches observed in some areas of New Orleans. Isaac also provided some drought relief to the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Isaac dumped up to 18" of rain in Florida, and disrupted the 2012 Republican Convention in Tampa. Isaac did $2 billion in damage.
Figure 7. Tropical Storm Isaac on August 28, a few hours before it intensified into a hurricane.
8) The Non-Winter of 2011-2012 "Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen. It's 2012, and the new year is ringing in another ridiculously wacky winter for the U.S. In Fargo, North Dakota yesterday, the mercury soared to 55°F, breaking a 1908 record for warmest January day in recorded history. More than 99% of North Dakota had no snow on the ground this morning, and over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year had below-average snow cover." That was the opening of my January 6, 2012 blog post, called "Remarkably dry and warm winter due to record extreme jet stream configuration." The contiguous U.S. saw its 3rd lowest snow cover on record during both winter and spring, and the winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest and 24th driest winter in U.S. history, going back to 1895. A primary cause of this warm and snowless winter was the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index was +2.52 in December 2011, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The positive NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S.
Figure 8. Flowers sprouting on January 1, 2012 in Keene, New Hampshire, thanks to unusually warm December temperatures and lack of snow. Image credit: Wunderphotographer lovne32.
9) April 30 - May 1 Severe Weather Outbreak A severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley April 30 - May 1 caused 38 tornadoes and $4 billion in damage.
10) Late-Spring Freeze: Northeast/Midwest After the record-warm "Summer in March" weather in the Great Lakes and Northeast, an April freeze damaged crops across the region. New York's fruit production was the lowest since 1948, and it was the worst fruit season for Michigan since 1945. Damage in Michigan alone was estimated at $500 million.
Honorable Mentions (text courtesy of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, with damage estimates from AON Benfield):
Severe Weather Outbreak (May): A strong cold front moving through the country on May 25 - 30 spawned 27 tornadoes from Texas to the Northeast. Damage was estimated at $2.5 billion, much of it from hail.
Severe Weather Outbreak (April): A tornado outbreak on April 13 - 14 in the Plains spawned 98 tornadoes and caused at least 6 fatalities. Damage was estimated at $1.75 billion.
Severe Weather Outbreak (June): Several days of severe storms across the Southwest spawned 25 tornadoes from June 6 - 12. Significant hail damage occurred across the Rocky Mountain Front Range, with total damage estimated at $1.75 billion.
Tropical Storm Debby/Wet Florida (June): Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Debby in early June caused damage estimated at $310 million, but Debby's rains helped break a drought in Northern Florida. Florida had its wettest summer on record, partially due to Debby.
Duluth Flooding (June): Training thunderstorms caused record flooding in and around Duluth Minnesota on June 20, with over 8 inches of rainfall observed in 24 hours in parts of the city. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, reported their highest flood heights on record. Damage was estimated at $175 million.
Pacific Northwest Winter Storm (January): A massive winter storm impacted the Pacific Northwest on January 18 - 23. Huge amounts of rain and snow fell, and hurricane-force wind gusts knocked out power to 250,000 customers. Damage was estimated at $100 million.
Hawaiian Hail Storm (March): On March 9, a cut-off low pressure system impacted the Hawaiian Islands, bringing heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. A rare EF-0 tornado hit the towns of Lanikai and Kailua on Oahu, causing minor damage. Another storm dropped a hailstone measuring 4.25 inches long, 2.25 inches tall, and 2 inches wide--the largest hailstone on record for Hawaii. Damage from the storms was estimated at $37 million.
Near-Record Low Great Lakes Levels (by end of 2012): Record warm temperatures throughout 2012 combined with low precipitation and low winter ice cover created high evaporation rates across the Great Lakes. In December, Lakes Michigan and Huron had fallen to within inches of the all-time record low lake levels set back in 1964. Low lake levels have a significant impact on recreational and commercial boating as well as tourism.
Slow Tornado Year (annual): Despite an active March, 2012 saw relatively low tornado numbers compared to recent history.
Mount Evans Tornado (July): A high elevation tornado was observed along the slope of Mount Evans at 11,900 feet--the second highest observed tornado in the U.S.
Alaska Cold Winter/Snow Record (winter): Several Alaskan locations had their coldest January on record. The monthly average temperature at Bettles, AK was -35.6°F. The statewide average January temperature was record cold--14°F below average. Record snow (134.5 inches) fell in Anchorage during the winter season, breaking the previous record set in 1954 - 55.
Alaskan Storms and Flooding (September): Several large extratropical cyclones impacted Alaska during September. Significant flooding occurred along the Sustina River and along its tributaries, causing the worse flooding in 30 years. Over 800 structures and dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed. The storms also brought early snowfall to southern portions of the state.
Death Valley sets world record for highest minimum temperature On Thursday morning, July 12, 2012 the low temperature at Death Valley, California dropped to just 107°F (41.7°C), after hitting a high of 128° (53.3°C) the previous day. Not only did the morning low temperature tie a record for the world's warmest low temperature ever recorded, the average temperature of 117.5°F was the world's warmest 24-hour temperature on record. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the only other place in the world to record a 107°F low temperature was Khasab Airport in the desert nation of Oman on June 27, 2012.
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center will release their top-ten list of U.S. weather events of 2012 on Tuesday, January 8, 2013.
Have a great holiday, everyone! I'll be back on December 26 with a new post.
Quoting KoritheMan: I'm just full of good news tonight, aren't I? Sorry.
For those unaware, this is the same general area Bopha hit three to four weeks ago.
Although it won't be that strong as Bopha, it will still bring heavy rain to that area leading to deadly floods and landslides. The area is also still recovering from Bopha.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 3912
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...
...A DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER JET STREAK/ AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD...AMPLIFIES...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY CLOSED/NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT AS IT ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
...GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST STATES... GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST TX THIS MORNING TO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS /AND SOME MIDDLE 60S F NEAR THE COAST/ BECOMING INCREASINGLY PREVALENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
INITIALLY...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT /MAINLY CAPABLE OF HAIL/...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/SOUTHERN LA. WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLY DAY TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA.
WITH TIME...THE AIRMASS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL...WITH 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE FOR AREAS WITHIN 150-200 MILES OF THE GULF COAST. LESSER...AND A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SURFACE LOW LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...LARGELY OWING TO PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND A LESSER INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS...THIS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD...WITH 70-100 KT AT 500 MB AND 110+ KT AT 250 MB...WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS. ACCENTUATED BY THE DEEPENING PHASE OF THE CYCLONE...EVENTUAL QLCS DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING QLCS...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO CROSS LA AND THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF MS/AL THROUGH TONIGHT. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED BOWING SEGMENTS. FURTHERMORE...A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR EVENTUAL EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 200-500 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH COINCIDENT WITH A 50-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
WHILE THE OVERALL SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...INSTABILITY WILL WANE LATE IN THE PERIOD. EVEN SO...A SEVERE THREAT MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF AL...SOUTHEAST TN...AND WESTERN GA LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS INCLUDING COASTAL SC BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
..GUYER/SMITH.. 12/25/2012
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15462
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...
...A DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER JET STREAK/ AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD...AMPLIFIES...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY CLOSED/NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT AS IT ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
...GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST STATES... GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST TX THIS MORNING TO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS /AND SOME MIDDLE 60S F NEAR THE COAST/ BECOMING INCREASINGLY PREVALENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
INITIALLY...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT /MAINLY CAPABLE OF HAIL/...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/SOUTHERN LA. WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLY DAY TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA.
WITH TIME...THE AIRMASS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL...WITH 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE FOR AREAS WITHIN 150-200 MILES OF THE GULF COAST. LESSER...AND A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SURFACE LOW LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...LARGELY OWING TO PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND A LESSER INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS...THIS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD...WITH 70-100 KT AT 500 MB AND 110+ KT AT 250 MB...WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS. ACCENTUATED BY THE DEEPENING PHASE OF THE CYCLONE...EVENTUAL QLCS DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING QLCS...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO CROSS LA AND THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF MS/AL THROUGH TONIGHT. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED BOWING SEGMENTS. FURTHERMORE...A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR EVENTUAL EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 200-500 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH COINCIDENT WITH A 50-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
WHILE THE OVERALL SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...INSTABILITY WILL WANE LATE IN THE PERIOD. EVEN SO...A SEVERE THREAT MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF AL...SOUTHEAST TN...AND WESTERN GA LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS INCLUDING COASTAL SC BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
..GUYER/SMITH.. 12/25/2012
I just saw that and I was like great.. So that Halo thing must be Bad Luck! yuck..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
India Meteorological Department Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8 LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER ARB02-2012 8:30 AM IST December 25 2012 ===================================
The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved west southwestwards and weakened into a depression on the afternoon of December 24th. Later, At 3:00 AM UTC, The system moved further south southwestwards and weakened into a low pressure area off Somalia coast.
This is the final Tropical Cyclone Advisory on this system from the India Meteorological Department..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36688
Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11 TROPICAL STORM WUKONG (T1225) 15:00 PM JST December 25 2012 ===============================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Philippines
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Wukong (998 hPa) located at 10.2N 127.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds =============== 120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity ======================== 24 HRS: 10.7N 122.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines 48 HRS: 11.4N 117.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea 72 HRS: 11.4N 111.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36688
This is just the elevated stuff for now. Wait until we get the more robust surface-based development.
I know its not the real show but U know what i mean lol Gosh my Halo/Ring is still going.. How long does it usually last or does it last until sunrise??
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 691 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 140 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LOUISIANA CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 140 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS TO 20 MILES EAST OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING SRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W WILL COINCIDE WITH A MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS TO PROMOTE MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 3912
The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a
* Tornado Warning for... northern Acadia Parish in southwest Louisiana... this includes... Mermentau... Iota... east central Jefferson Davis Parish in southwest Louisiana... this includes Jennings...
* until 315 am CST
* at 236 am CST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Jennings... moving northeast at 30 mph.
* The tornado will be near... Mermentau by 245 am CST... Evangeline by 250 am CST... Egan by 255 am CST... Iota by 305 am CST... Maxie by 310 am CST... Mowata by 315 am CST...
Here we go!!!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
Aww come on, the only reason I am not under a winter storm watch is because of not all of Oakland county would fit the criteria. Since I am in the southeastern portion I would, oh well.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6805
Let me ask this question.. Which tornado is more dangerous.. Rain-wrapped tornado, tornado in a fog, or a tornado at night..? Or u can put them in order from dangerous to non dangerous.. But they all dangerous.. Just want to get some opinions on this one..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 328 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012
VALID 12Z TUE DEC 25 2012 - 12Z THU DEC 27 2012
...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL BRING A RARE WHITE CHRISTMAS TO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...
...A POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY IMPACT THE DEEP SOUTH ON CHRISTMAS DAY...
...MORE SNOW IS IN STORE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD WEST TEXAS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN FEEDING OFF THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY ONGOING WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF TEXAS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BUILD THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE TROUGH ENERGY SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION ALLOWING A WINTRY MIX TO PREVAIL FROM OKLAHOMA EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA OF THE CONUS WITH AREAS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS WELL...THUS ENSURING A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THIS SECTION OF THE CONUS.
AS OF THIS MORNING...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A LARGE PORTION OF THE DEEP SOUTH IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN PARTICULAR...SOUTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO CENTRAL ALABAMA APPEARS TO BE THE REGION OF UTMOST CONCERN AS A MODERATE RISK IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP MORE INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE. A CHRISTMAS DAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS RATHER RARE WITH THE LAST REPORTED TORNADO ON CHRISTMAS BEING BACK IN 2006. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE VISIT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV.
ONCE THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FAVORABLY ORIENTED TO INDUCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW. STRONG MESOSCALE LIFT NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LOW CENTER WILL BE THE SITE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. SUCH A THEME SHOULD REMAIN DURING THE ENTIRE LIFECYCLE OF THIS POWERFUL WINTER STORM. THE CURRENT HPC WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA UP THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AS THE LOW REACHES ITS STRONGEST INTENSITY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF THE BEST SNOWFALL WILL TAKE PLACE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE. OF COURSE THE WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BARRELS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATER THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE TERRAIN WILL ALLOW AT LEAST 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA...SHASTA RANGE...AND CASCADES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY AS A RIDGE BUILDS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
Quoting FLPandhandleJG: Let me ask this question.. Which tornado is more dangerous.. Rain-wrapped tornado, tornado in a fog, or a tornado at night..? Or u can put them in order from dangerous to non dangerous.. But they all dangerous.. Just want to get some opinions on this one..
Most dangerous would probably be tornado at night because not many people at all are awake until it is too late. My next dangerous would be rain-wrapped as it happens more frequently than a tornado in fog and the rain could cause flooding issues. The "least" dangerous, but still dangerous, would be a tornado in fog because it doesn't happen a lot.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6805
Quoting wxchaser97: Most dangerous would probably be tornado at night because not many people at all are awake until it is too late. My next dangerous would be rain-wrapped as it happens more frequently than a tornado in fog and the rain could cause flooding issues. The "least" dangerous, but still dangerous, would be a tornado in fog because it doesn't happen a lot.
I agree.. I just hope that I dont have any situations with this potential tornado outbreak.. I know I will probably get something but praying its nothing dangerous tho or i dont want to wish this on anyone else.. I hope u will have a good christmas and everyone else tho.. I rather have snow then this crazy crap..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
...SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FROM EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY)...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE INJECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MOBILE HAS FOUND THAT THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING AND INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF THESE STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IS LIKELY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
My friend just called me and lives just north of Lake Charles, LA.. He said that Storm he had was a really nasty Storm that he has seen in awhile this time of the year.. Says he had dime to nickel size hail, winds maybe near hurricane strength, and Lightning was a show to watch.. But is afraid if that was the beginning he is afraid what is stored rest of the day.. This is going to be an interesting day and maybe a day/night to remember.. I really a lot of ppl r paying attention to what might happen later if anything happens..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
Quoting LargoFl: thanks you stay safe up there, so many warnings out now..at least you are aware..so many arent
yessir! and have told everybody i know that lives near me or somewhere that could be hit.. O btw i am watch the TWC and they said Jim Cantore is in Mississippi somewhere.. Go figure! I just hope that the unthinkable wont happen to a place that is not known for tornadoes.. But I guess about anything could happen..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
yes the NWS has been telling us for days this could be a very dangerous storm front,im afraid to see what happens to this storm, when the sun comes up huh..its already pulling in the warm moisture from the gulf..whew,going to be quite nasty i think later on
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Although it won't be that strong as Bopha, it will still bring heavy rain to that area leading to deadly floods and landslides. The area is also still recovering from Bopha.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND PORTIONS
OF LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
STATES...
...A DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS LIKELY
TO UNFOLD...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK/ AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD...AMPLIFIES...AND
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY CLOSED/NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT AS IT
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
...GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHEAST TX THIS MORNING TO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT...WITH
LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS /AND SOME MIDDLE 60S F NEAR THE COAST/ BECOMING
INCREASINGLY PREVALENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
INITIALLY...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA. THIS
INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT /MAINLY CAPABLE OF HAIL/...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE
BASED SEVERE THREAT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE UPPER TX COAST/SOUTHERN LA. WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
EARLY DAY TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA.
WITH TIME...THE AIRMASS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MS/AL...WITH 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE FOR AREAS WITHIN 150-200 MILES OF THE
GULF COAST. LESSER...AND A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SURFACE LOW LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...LARGELY OWING TO PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION NEAR/NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND A LESSER INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS...THIS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD...WITH 70-100 KT AT 500 MB AND
110+ KT AT 250 MB...WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS. ACCENTUATED BY THE DEEPENING PHASE OF
THE CYCLONE...EVENTUAL QLCS DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND NEAR/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING QLCS...WHICH
SEEMS LIKELY TO CROSS LA AND THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF MS/AL THROUGH
TONIGHT. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUSTAINED BOWING SEGMENTS. FURTHERMORE...A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY
LONG-LIVED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AND/OR EVENTUAL EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 200-500 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH
COINCIDENT WITH A 50-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
WHILE THE OVERALL SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...INSTABILITY WILL WANE LATE IN
THE PERIOD. EVEN SO...A SEVERE THREAT MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS PARTS
OF AL...SOUTHEAST TN...AND WESTERN GA LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS INCLUDING COASTAL SC BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY.
..GUYER/SMITH.. 12/25/2012
Starting to pop up.. but not severe yet of course.. should be by day break that it should be getting interesting..
I just saw that and I was like great.. So that Halo thing must be Bad Luck! yuck..
Merry Christmas gang!!
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER ARB02-2012
8:30 AM IST December 25 2012
===================================
The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved west southwestwards and weakened into a depression on the afternoon of December 24th. Later, At 3:00 AM UTC, The system moved further south southwestwards and weakened into a low pressure area off Somalia coast.
This is the final Tropical Cyclone Advisory on this system from the India Meteorological Department..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM WUKONG (T1225)
15:00 PM JST December 25 2012
===============================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Philippines
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Wukong (998 hPa) located at 10.2N 127.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 10.7N 122.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines
48 HRS: 11.4N 117.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 11.4N 111.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Merry Christmas, Ron. You better not get injured today.
lol...just checked....getting injured is not on my Christmas list this year!!
So where do u live Traumaboyy??
Counted six hail storms already.. starting to get more organized as well..
This is just the elevated stuff for now. Wait until we get the more robust surface-based development.
I know its not the real show but U know what i mean lol Gosh my Halo/Ring is still going.. How long does it usually last or does it last until sunrise??
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 140 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
TEMPLE TEXAS TO 20 MILES EAST OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING SRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W WILL COINCIDE WITH A
MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS TO PROMOTE MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD
Better not be. I might just cry.
lol...have to admit...worrying about severe thunderstorms is not on our normal list of Christmas festivities in my family!
* Tornado Warning for...
northern Acadia Parish in southwest Louisiana...
this includes... Mermentau... Iota...
east central Jefferson Davis Parish in southwest Louisiana...
this includes Jennings...
* until 315 am CST
* at 236 am CST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Jennings...
moving northeast at 30 mph.
* The tornado will be near...
Mermentau by 245 am CST...
Evangeline by 250 am CST...
Egan by 255 am CST...
Iota by 305 am CST...
Maxie by 310 am CST...
Mowata by 315 am CST...
Here we go!!!
Nor in mine, haha. That's why this is so exciting to me (not the death part, though)!
And yes sir, there are warnings out near Lake Charles now.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012
VALID 12Z TUE DEC 25 2012 - 12Z THU DEC 27 2012
...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL BRING A RARE WHITE CHRISTMAS TO
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...
...A POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY IMPACT THE
DEEP SOUTH ON CHRISTMAS DAY...
...MORE SNOW IS IN STORE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN FEEDING OFF THE ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITATION IS
ALREADY ONGOING WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF TEXAS. THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SHOULD BUILD THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE TROUGH
ENERGY SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION ALLOWING A WINTRY MIX TO PREVAIL FROM OKLAHOMA EASTWARD
INTO ARKANSAS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA OF THE CONUS WITH AREAS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS
WELL...THUS ENSURING A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THIS SECTION OF THE
CONUS.
AS OF THIS MORNING...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE DEEP SOUTH IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN PARTICULAR...SOUTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO CENTRAL ALABAMA APPEARS TO BE THE REGION OF UTMOST
CONCERN AS A MODERATE RISK IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE STORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP MORE INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE. A
CHRISTMAS DAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS RATHER RARE WITH THE LAST
REPORTED TORNADO ON CHRISTMAS BEING BACK IN 2006. FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE VISIT
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV.
ONCE THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES FAVORABLY ORIENTED TO INDUCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW. STRONG MESOSCALE LIFT NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LOW
CENTER WILL BE THE SITE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. SUCH A
THEME SHOULD REMAIN DURING THE ENTIRE LIFECYCLE OF THIS POWERFUL
WINTER STORM. THE CURRENT HPC WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SUGGESTS A
WIDESPREAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA UP THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. AS THE LOW REACHES ITS STRONGEST INTENSITY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF THE BEST SNOWFALL WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH
OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE. OF COURSE THE WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.
THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH BARRELS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATER THIS
EVENING. SUFFICIENT ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE TERRAIN
WILL ALLOW AT LEAST 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA...SHASTA RANGE...AND CASCADES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY AS A RIDGE BUILDS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST.
Most dangerous would probably be tornado at night because not many people at all are awake until it is too late. My next dangerous would be rain-wrapped as it happens more frequently than a tornado in fog and the rain could cause flooding issues. The "least" dangerous, but still dangerous, would be a tornado in fog because it doesn't happen a lot.
I agree.. I just hope that I dont have any situations with this potential tornado outbreak.. I know I will probably get something but praying its nothing dangerous tho or i dont want to wish this on anyone else.. I hope u will have a good christmas and everyone else tho.. I rather have snow then this crazy crap..
Thx and U too! Good luck to all
Keep your head down!!
Same to u as well!
CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY)...BRINGING
A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE INJECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MOBILE HAS FOUND THAT THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING AND
INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF THESE STORMS
PRODUCING TORNADOES DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME STRONG...LONG TRACKED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IS
LIKELY.
yessir! and have told everybody i know that lives near me or somewhere that could be hit.. O btw i am watch the TWC and they said Jim Cantore is in Mississippi somewhere.. Go figure! I just hope that the unthinkable wont happen to a place that is not known for tornadoes.. But I guess about anything could happen..
I believe u might be right..
I hear ya.. would be a big time bummer..
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