It was another year of incredible weather extremes unparalleled in American history during 2012. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters during the equally insane weather year of 2011. I present for you now the top ten weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact.
Video 1. Hour-by-hour animation of infrared satellite images for 2012. The loop goes in slow-motion to feature such events as Hurricane Sandy, the June Derecho, Summer in March, and other top weather events of 2012. The date stamp is at lower left; you will want to make the animation full screen to see the date. Special thanks to wunderground's Deb Mitchell for putting this together!
1) Superstorm Sandy Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 29), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic, with over 12 inches of rain observed in parts of Maryland. In addition, Sandy generated blizzard conditions for the central and southern Appalachians with more than a foot of snow falling in six states from North Carolina to Pennsylvania, shattering October snow records. Over 130 fatalities were reported and over 8.5 million customers lost power--the second largest weather-related power outage in U.S. history, behind the 10 million that lost power during the Blizzard of 1993. Damage from Sandy is estimated at $62 billion.
Figure 1. Cabs lie flooded on October 30, 2012, in Hoboken, NJ, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. AP photo: Charles Sykes.
2) Warmest Year on Record Spring, March, July, and the annual temperature were all warmest on record in the contiguous U.S. July was the warmest month of any month in the 1,400+ months of the U.S. data record, going back to 1895. The spring temperature departure from average was the largest on record for any season, and March temperatures had the second largest warm departure from average of any month in U.S. history. All-time hottest temperature records were set over approximately 7% of the area of the contiguous U.S., according to a database of 298 major U.S. cities maintained by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Given the very warm December temperatures so far, the final 2012 annual temperature is likely to break the previous warmest year on record (1998) by at least 0.7°F--a colossal margin to break an annual record by. It is likely that 15 states will end up with their warmest year on record in 2012, and 42 states will have a top-ten warmest year.
Figure 2. One of 2012's incredibly hot days: high temperatures on August 1 in Oklahoma from the Oklahoma Mesonet. It was the hottest day in Oklahoma since August 1936, with more than half of the state recording temperatures of 110° or higher. Oklahoma City hit 112°, tied for the city's 3nd highest temperature since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days occurred two days later--on August 3, 2012--and back on August 11, 1936 (113°.)
3) The Great Drought of 2012 The Great U.S. Drought of 2012 may well turn out to be the biggest weather story of 2012, since its full impacts have not yet been realized. The area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought peaked at 61.8% in July--the largest such area since the Dust Bowl drought of December 1939. The heat and dryness resulted in record or near-record evaporation rates, causing major impact on corn, soybean and wheat belts in addition to livestock production. Drought upstream of the Lower Mississippi River caused record and near-record low stream flows along the river in Mississippi and Louisiana, resulting in limited river transportation and commerce. Crop damages alone from the great drought are estimated at $35 billion. As the total scope of losses is realized across all lines of business in coming months, this number will climb significantly.
Figure 3. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.
4) Wildfire Season of 2012 The 2012 U.S. fire season was the 3rd worst in U.S. history, with 9.2 million acres burned--an area larger than the state of Maryland. Since the National Interagency Fire Center began keeping records in 1960, only two years have seen more area burned--2006, when 9.9 million acres burned, and 2007, when 9.3 million acres burned. New Mexico had its largest fire in state history, Colorado its most destructive and 2nd largest in state history, and Oregon had its largest fire since the 1860s. More than 3.6 million acres burned in the U.S. during August--the most on record for any August in recorded history.
Figure 4. Wunderphoto of Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire of 2012, the largest fire in New Mexico history. Wunderphoto submitted by AZMountaineer21.
5) March 2 - 3 Tornado Outbreak A massive tornado outbreak of stunning violence swept through the nation's midsection March 2 - 3, spawning deadly tornadoes that killed 41 people. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 22 and 13 dead, respectively. The scale of the outbreak was exceptional, with 70 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to southern Georgia. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak. An area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings, and tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas. The outbreak spawned two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. Total damage was estimated at $4 billion.
Figure 5. A school bus mangled by the EF-4 Henryville, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Image credit: NWS Louisville, Kentucky.
6) June 29 Multi-State Derecho A violent line of organized severe thunderstorms called a derecho swept across the U.S. from Illinois to Virginia on June 29, damaging houses, toppling trees, bringing down power lines. The storms killed 22 people, and left at least 3.4 million customers without power. The thunderstorms in a derecho (from the Spanish phrase for "straight ahead") create violent winds that blow in a straight line. The derecho was unusually intense due to extreme heat that set all-time records at ten major cities on the south side of the derecho. This heat helped create an unstable atmosphere with plenty of energy to fuel severe thunderstorms. At least 38 thunderstorms in the derecho generated wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, making the derecho one of the most severe derechoes on record. Total damage was estimated at $3.75 billion.
Figure 6. Turbulent clouds gather over Mettawa, Illinois on June 29, 2012, as the historic 2012 derecho begins to organize. Image credit: Wunderphotographer LarrySmit.
7) Hurricane Isaac Hurricane Isaac slowly lumbered ashore near the mouth of the Mississippi River on August 28 as a Category 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds. Isaac's large size and slow motion caused a storm surge more characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane--up to eleven feet--but New Orleans' new $14.5 billion levee upgrade held against Isaac's surge. The surge moved up the Mississippi River in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade. Isaac brought torrential rainfall, with more than twenty inches observed in some areas of New Orleans. Isaac also provided some drought relief to the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Isaac dumped up to 18" of rain in Florida, and disrupted the 2012 Republican Convention in Tampa. Isaac did $2 billion in damage.
Figure 7. Tropical Storm Isaac on August 28, a few hours before it intensified into a hurricane.
8) The Non-Winter of 2011-2012 "Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen. It's 2012, and the new year is ringing in another ridiculously wacky winter for the U.S. In Fargo, North Dakota yesterday, the mercury soared to 55°F, breaking a 1908 record for warmest January day in recorded history. More than 99% of North Dakota had no snow on the ground this morning, and over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year had below-average snow cover." That was the opening of my January 6, 2012 blog post, called "Remarkably dry and warm winter due to record extreme jet stream configuration." The contiguous U.S. saw its 3rd lowest snow cover on record during both winter and spring, and the winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest and 24th driest winter in U.S. history, going back to 1895. A primary cause of this warm and snowless winter was the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index was +2.52 in December 2011, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The positive NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S.
Figure 8. Flowers sprouting on January 1, 2012 in Keene, New Hampshire, thanks to unusually warm December temperatures and lack of snow. Image credit: Wunderphotographer lovne32.
9) April 30 - May 1 Severe Weather Outbreak A severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley April 30 - May 1 caused 38 tornadoes and $4 billion in damage.
10) Late-Spring Freeze: Northeast/Midwest After the record-warm "Summer in March" weather in the Great Lakes and Northeast, an April freeze damaged crops across the region. New York's fruit production was the lowest since 1948, and it was the worst fruit season for Michigan since 1945. Damage in Michigan alone was estimated at $500 million.
Honorable Mentions (text courtesy of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, with damage estimates from AON Benfield):
Severe Weather Outbreak (May): A strong cold front moving through the country on May 25 - 30 spawned 27 tornadoes from Texas to the Northeast. Damage was estimated at $2.5 billion, much of it from hail.
Severe Weather Outbreak (April): A tornado outbreak on April 13 - 14 in the Plains spawned 98 tornadoes and caused at least 6 fatalities. Damage was estimated at $1.75 billion.
Severe Weather Outbreak (June): Several days of severe storms across the Southwest spawned 25 tornadoes from June 6 - 12. Significant hail damage occurred across the Rocky Mountain Front Range, with total damage estimated at $1.75 billion.
Tropical Storm Debby/Wet Florida (June): Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Debby in early June caused damage estimated at $310 million, but Debby's rains helped break a drought in Northern Florida. Florida had its wettest summer on record, partially due to Debby.
Duluth Flooding (June): Training thunderstorms caused record flooding in and around Duluth Minnesota on June 20, with over 8 inches of rainfall observed in 24 hours in parts of the city. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, reported their highest flood heights on record. Damage was estimated at $175 million.
Pacific Northwest Winter Storm (January): A massive winter storm impacted the Pacific Northwest on January 18 - 23. Huge amounts of rain and snow fell, and hurricane-force wind gusts knocked out power to 250,000 customers. Damage was estimated at $100 million.
Hawaiian Hail Storm (March): On March 9, a cut-off low pressure system impacted the Hawaiian Islands, bringing heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. A rare EF-0 tornado hit the towns of Lanikai and Kailua on Oahu, causing minor damage. Another storm dropped a hailstone measuring 4.25 inches long, 2.25 inches tall, and 2 inches wide--the largest hailstone on record for Hawaii. Damage from the storms was estimated at $37 million.
Near-Record Low Great Lakes Levels (by end of 2012): Record warm temperatures throughout 2012 combined with low precipitation and low winter ice cover created high evaporation rates across the Great Lakes. In December, Lakes Michigan and Huron had fallen to within inches of the all-time record low lake levels set back in 1964. Low lake levels have a significant impact on recreational and commercial boating as well as tourism.
Slow Tornado Year (annual): Despite an active March, 2012 saw relatively low tornado numbers compared to recent history.
Mount Evans Tornado (July): A high elevation tornado was observed along the slope of Mount Evans at 11,900 feet--the second highest observed tornado in the U.S.
Alaska Cold Winter/Snow Record (winter): Several Alaskan locations had their coldest January on record. The monthly average temperature at Bettles, AK was -35.6°F. The statewide average January temperature was record cold--14°F below average. Record snow (134.5 inches) fell in Anchorage during the winter season, breaking the previous record set in 1954 - 55.
Alaskan Storms and Flooding (September): Several large extratropical cyclones impacted Alaska during September. Significant flooding occurred along the Sustina River and along its tributaries, causing the worse flooding in 30 years. Over 800 structures and dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed. The storms also brought early snowfall to southern portions of the state.
Death Valley sets world record for highest minimum temperature On Thursday morning, July 12, 2012 the low temperature at Death Valley, California dropped to just 107°F (41.7°C), after hitting a high of 128° (53.3°C) the previous day. Not only did the morning low temperature tie a record for the world's warmest low temperature ever recorded, the average temperature of 117.5°F was the world's warmest 24-hour temperature on record. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the only other place in the world to record a 107°F low temperature was Khasab Airport in the desert nation of Oman on June 27, 2012.
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center will release their top-ten list of U.S. weather events of 2012 on Tuesday, January 8, 2013.
Have a great holiday, everyone! I'll be back on December 26 with a new post.
India Meteorological Department Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6 DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2012 8:30 AM IST December 24 2012 ===================================
At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved west southwestwards, and lays near 8.3N 53.8E, or about 430 km southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia).
The system is likely to intensify further and move west southwestwards and cross Somalia coast during evening/night of December 25th.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated broken low medium clouds with intense to very intense convection is seen over the southwest Arabian Sea between 6.0N and 12.5N east of 63.5E and adjoining parts of northeast Somalia.
3 minute sustained wind speed near the center is 30 knots gusting to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is about 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system.
Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude <1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 3 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 27-29C around system center and it gradually decreases towards Somalia coast. The ocean thermal energy is <40 kj/cm2 around the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center and providing poleward outflow for intensification. The low level convergence and upper level divergence shows no change. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (25 knots) around system center. As some features are favorable and others are not favorable, it may intensify into a marginal cyclonic storm during next 12 hrs.
Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 15:00 PM JST December 24 2012 ===============================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 9.0N 131.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity ======================== 24 HRS: 9.3N 127.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Mindanao (Philippines)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36688
The closed circulation of Tropical Cyclone Four is exposed due to the high east-southeasterly wind shear shifting all the shower and thunderstorm activity to the west away from the center. The convective activity has also diminished over the past several hours. Landfall in Somalia is expected in just more than 12 hours or so.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 3912
Quoting Civicane49: The closed circulation of Tropical Cyclone Four is exposed due to the high east-southeasterly wind shear shifting all the shower and thunderstorm activity to the west away from the center. The convective activity has also diminished over the past several hours. Landfall in Somalia is expected in just more than 12 hours or so.
Aye. I love exposed storms as much as I do major hurricanes. Each beautiful in their own right.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15463
A powerful low pressure system will move across northern Mississippi and Alabama on Christmas day... bringing a strong cold front across the area. Unseasonably warm... moist and unstable air will be injected from the Gulf of Mexico into the southeast states ahead of the front. Your National Weather Service office in Mobile has found that there is a substantial risk of severe weather in southeast Mississippi... southwest Alabama... and the western Florida Panhandle on Christmas day.
Latest computer model guidance continues to indicate scattered strong to severe thunderstorms developing through Christmas morning and afternoon. There is a risk of these storms producing tornadoes during the day with some tornadoes possibly strong. In addition... large hail with these storms is likely.
By late afternoon... a line of thunderstorms will form out west along the Interstate 59 corridor in Mississippi. The line of thunderstorms will quickly move east... reaching the Interstate 65 corridor by early Christmas evening and east of a Brantley/Luverne to Destin line by midnight. The primary severe weather concern along the squall line will be damaging straight line winds... large hail... and isolated tornadoes. The threat of severe weather is expected to end Christmas night as the strong cold front exits the area.
Stay tuned for further updates on this potentially dangerous weather situation..
Just came out for my area or the ones are being warned now.. God bless everyone if they have to go through this crazy situation! I hope this Grinch of the storm doesn't steal anyone christmas..
BTW.. Merry Christmas everybody!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
NEW ORLEANS AREA PAY ATTENTION TO THIS..........SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 111 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077 -080>082-240915- POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON- ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION- LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST- UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS- UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE- LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON- LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA- SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER- HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA... ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MO NTPELIER... BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...C OVINGTON... LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS... BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE... DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE... PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...R ESERVE... THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO ...METAIRIE... KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET... HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO... CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY... AMITE...KENTWOOD...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...CENTRE VILLE... WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB.. .TYLERTOWN... PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT... BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER... ST. MARTIN 111 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...BRINGING WITH IT A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CHRISTMAS DAY.
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ON MONDAY...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT. AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS CURRENTLY INDICATING A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM BATON ROUGE TO POPLARVILLE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS COULD BE UPGRADED IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IS LESS LIKELY.
THERE IS ALSO AT LEAST SOME RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...DEFINED AS STRONG TORNADOES OR WINDS GREATER THAN 75 MILES PER HOUR. THIS THREAT WOULD BE PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY AND MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS THAT ARE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12 CORRIDOR.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE TAKE THIS TIME TO REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLAN AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.
$$
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3084
928. whitewabit(Mod)10:24 AM GMT on December 24, 2012
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 311 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-241200- CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON- MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCO TT-STARK- TAZEWELL-WOODFORD- 311 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LITTLE ICING IS ANTICIPATED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WINTER STORM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH INCREASING TOTALS FROM I-55 EASTWARD. CURRENTLY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 323 Comments: 24114
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 350 TO 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL BY TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
Also a pretty significant threat Wednesday for the Carolinas, SPC mentioning the threat of tornadoes again, although I think tomorrow has more potential.
IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN INITIATE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL-LINE...THEN A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6373
Special weather statement for: =new= City of Toronto =new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent =new= Sarnia - Lambton =new= Elgin =new= London - Middlesex =new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk =new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand =new= Oxford - Brant =new= Niagara =new= City of Hamilton =new= Halton - Peel =new= York - Durham =new= Huron - Perth =new= Waterloo - Wellington =new= Dufferin - Innisfil =new= Grey - Bruce =new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland =new= Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland =new= Kingston - Prince Edward =new= Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes =new= Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac =new= Bancroft - Bon Echo Park =new= Brockville - Leeds and Grenville =new= City of Ottawa =new= Gatineau =new= Prescott and Russell =new= Cornwall - Morrisburg =new= Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake =new= Parry Sound - Muskoka =new= Haliburton =new= Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay =new= Algonquin =new= Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.
Potential winter storm boxing day into Thursday.
------------------------------------------------- -------------------- ==discussion== Current indications suggest that a low pressure system will develop over Texas on Christmas day and then move northeastward to pass south of the Great Lakes region late in the day boxing day into Thursday. Such a storm track would place Southern Ontario on the cold side of the storm, with the potential for significant snowfall accumulations.
Present indications suggest that the snow would start in the southwest during the day on boxing day, and then spread eastward to reach Eastern Ontario later in the evening. In addition, gusty northeast winds would result in local blowing snow reducing visibilities. Conditions should improve from west to east on Thursday.
It should be emphasized that this storm has yet to develop and the track of the storm may alter. Thus it is still much too early to forecast precipitation amounts. The public is strongly advised to monitor future forecasts for more information regarding this potential winter storm.
End
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40636
Get ready for a rough ride from SE TX into Alabama/N. Florida. Warm front pushes back tonight across Houston, I expect some thunderstorms (severe) to fire just north of the front. Then tomorrow as the cold front pushes through more severe thunderstorms. If anything goes ahead of that front across Houston it will likely be tornadic. This system will quickly push into LA/MS and produce muliple tornadoes from Lake Charles into Jackson.
Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729
Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index-One more day till Christmas!!
Monday Night, Dec. 24-25
LA southwest - 4 LA southeast, northwest - 2 TX upper coastal - 4 TX middle coastal - 3 TX northeast - 2 to 3 Tuesday, Dec. 25
AL central, southwest - 5 AL north - 3 FL west, central panhandle - 3 to 4 LA northeast - 5 LA northwest - 3 early LA central, south - 4 MS central, south - 5 MS north - 3 TX upper coastal - 4 early TX northeast - 3 early other areas - 1 or less Tuesday Night, Dec. 25-26
AL east-central, south - 5 AL northeast - 3 FL panhandle - 3 GA north, central - 3 to 4 GA southwest - 3 SC - 2 to 3 Wednesday, Dec. 26
FL east panhandle - 4 FL north - 4 FL central - 3 GA central, east - 4 to 5 NC central, east - 4 SC - 4 to 5 VA southeast - 2 to 3
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8462
This storm is going to be a really close call for me. Models can easily swing the band of heavy snow 100 miles no problem. Got me with 16" with nam and 2" with gfs with the gfs slightly south of me.
nam 5am 84 hr snowfall totals
gfs 5:30am 120 hr snowfall totals
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1029
SPC has added a 5% tornado risk on today's outlook for the possibility of storms tonight that will strengthen into tomorrow and become the big wind and tornado producers.
...ERN TX INTO CNTRL/SRN LA TONIGHT...
TEMPORARY HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF LOWER MS VALLEY DISTURBANCE WILL STRENGTHEN THE EXISTING CAP AND EFFECTIVELY INHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DECELERATING COLD FRONT. TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SSWLY LLJ WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE THE NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THESE PROCESSES WILL COINCIDE WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING RAPID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AS EARLY AS 25/02Z-03Z TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY INTO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/ASCENT GRADUALLY OVERCOME THE CAP. STORMS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT FURTHER STRENGTHENS IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT.
THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS...INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 25/09Z-12Z ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S PROMOTE MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE/ROTATION. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EVOLVING LINE SEGMENTS/BOWING STRUCTURES.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6373
Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 21:00 PM JST December 24 2012 ===============================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.1N 130.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity ======================== 24 HRS: 9.3N 126.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Mindanao (Philippines)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36688
FOLKS..PLEASE HEED THE WARNINGS..STAY SAFE......................SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FROM EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE INJECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MOBILE HAS FOUND THAT THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF THESE STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES DURING THE DAY WITH SOME TORNADOES POSSIBLY STRONG. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IS LIKELY.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OUT WEST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR IN MISSISSIPPI. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE EASTWARD...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY EARLY CHRISTMAS EVENING AND EAST OF A BRANTLEY...LUVERNE TO DESTIN LINE BY MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN ALONG THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.
$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 433 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
LAZ016-023>026-MSZ038-039-043>066-072>074-251045- MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE- MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT- NEWTON- LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER- CLARKE-JEFFERSON- ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON- JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST- 433 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS DAY AND EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP... PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO JACKSON AND DE KALB MISSISSIPPI LINE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. A FEW STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP. HEAVY RAINFALL OF TWO TO THREE INCHES IS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
$$
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>037-040> 042-251045- ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND- BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOM ERY-WEBSTER-CLAY- LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HO LMES-ATTALA- ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO- 433 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A COMPLEX AND STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY. INITIALLY...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM...RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING AS FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5191
Well now the local mets are calling for snow to fall today with it becoming a little heavy during the P.M hours.If we're lucky we'll get a inch here in D.C.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10664
Tomorrow and Wednesday are going to be very big day for tornadoes. Some of them will be violent and long-tracked. And I'm right in the bullseye on Wednesday.
Great..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330
Has the extremely damaging squall line/ broken line of tornadic supercells question been resolved yet?
SPC says an broken mcs line could maintain multiple strong tornadoes. A linear mode could promote extremely damaging winds. Also models trending nw again
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7163
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: Has the extremely damaging squall line/ broken line of tornadic supercells question been resolved yet?
SPC says an broken mcs line could maintain multiple strong tornadoes. A linear mode could promote extremely damaging winds. Also models trending nw again
Which model you preferring, seems like NAM is stronger and further north and the GFS slightly weaker and further south....
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1029
Any excess sunshine tomorrow could be across the gulf coast area. NAM trending lower in pressure last few runs, opens upa visible 998mb isobar now, central pressure of the low should be 995mb or so. Warm sector staying the same in the last few runs. CAPE trending more reasonable, however with such a volatile atmosphere it wont take much to get up to 1000j/kg cape
NAM shear values trending higher
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7163
Can anyone tell me where you all find these model runs for snow accumulations etc? I quite enjoy reading this blog, and have always been able to get all the information I need from you all, but just curious as to if there's a place that a regular guy like me can see these runs as they become available. Thanks for all the help everyone.
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.
About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2012
8:30 AM IST December 24 2012
===================================
At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved west southwestwards, and lays near 8.3N 53.8E, or about 430 km southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia).
The system is likely to intensify further and move west southwestwards and cross Somalia coast during evening/night of December 25th.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated broken low medium clouds with intense to very intense convection is seen over the southwest Arabian Sea between 6.0N and 12.5N east of 63.5E and adjoining parts of northeast Somalia.
3 minute sustained wind speed near the center is 30 knots gusting to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is about 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system.
Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude <1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 3 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 27-29C around system center and it gradually decreases towards Somalia coast. The ocean thermal energy is <40 kj/cm2 around the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center and providing poleward outflow for intensification. The low level convergence and upper level divergence shows no change. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (25 knots) around system center. As some features are favorable and others are not favorable, it may intensify into a marginal cyclonic storm during next 12 hrs.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 7.5N 51.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 7.3N 50.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 6.5N 48.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28
15:00 PM JST December 24 2012
===============================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 9.0N 131.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 9.3N 127.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Mindanao (Philippines)
lol, imagine if it went to high. That would literally be unprecedented.
Aye. I love exposed storms as much as I do major hurricanes. Each beautiful in their own right.
I concur.
A powerful low pressure system will move across northern Mississippi
and Alabama on Christmas day... bringing a strong cold front across the
area. Unseasonably warm... moist and unstable air will be injected from
the Gulf of Mexico into the southeast states ahead of the front. Your
National Weather Service office in Mobile has found that there is a
substantial risk of severe weather in southeast Mississippi... southwest
Alabama... and the western Florida Panhandle on Christmas day.
Latest computer model guidance continues to indicate scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms developing through Christmas morning
and afternoon. There is a risk of these storms producing tornadoes
during the day with some tornadoes possibly strong. In addition... large
hail with these storms is likely.
By late afternoon... a line of thunderstorms will form out west along
the Interstate 59 corridor in Mississippi. The line of thunderstorms
will quickly move east... reaching the Interstate 65 corridor by early
Christmas evening and east of a Brantley/Luverne to Destin line by
midnight. The primary severe weather concern along the squall line
will be damaging straight line winds... large hail... and isolated
tornadoes. The threat of severe weather is expected to end Christmas
night as the strong cold front exits the area.
Stay tuned for further updates on this potentially dangerous weather
situation..
Just came out for my area or the ones are being warned now.. God bless everyone if they have to go through this crazy situation! I hope this Grinch of the storm doesn't steal anyone christmas..
BTW.. Merry Christmas everybody!
Starting to bring moisture for lil bit now.. Should crank up a bit later once it starts warming up a bit..
Good morning gang!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
111 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077 -080>082-240915-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-
LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MO NTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...C OVINGTON...
LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...
BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...
DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...
PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...R ESERVE...
THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO ...METAIRIE...
KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...
HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...
CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY...
AMITE...KENTWOOD...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...CENTRE VILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB.. .TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
111 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...BRINGING WITH IT A
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CHRISTMAS DAY.
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME ON MONDAY...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AGAIN
AS A WARM FRONT. AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS CURRENTLY INDICATING A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
BATON ROUGE TO POPLARVILLE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS COULD BE UPGRADED IF
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IS
LESS LIKELY.
THERE IS ALSO AT LEAST SOME RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION...DEFINED AS STRONG TORNADOES OR WINDS GREATER
THAN 75 MILES PER HOUR. THIS THREAT WOULD BE PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY AND MAINLY LIMITED
TO AREAS THAT ARE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12 CORRIDOR.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE TAKE THIS TIME TO
REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLAN AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.
$$
32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-241200-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCO TT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
311 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LITTLE
ICING IS ANTICIPATED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WINTER STORM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW TO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH INCREASING TOTALS FROM I-55 EASTWARD.
CURRENTLY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN ILLINOIS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF
350 TO 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL BY TUESDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT
BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR
WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY.
Also a pretty significant threat Wednesday for the Carolinas, SPC mentioning the threat of tornadoes again, although I think tomorrow has more potential.
IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN INITIATE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SQUALL-LINE...THEN A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO.
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
=new= Sarnia - Lambton
=new= Elgin
=new= London - Middlesex
=new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
=new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
=new= Oxford - Brant
=new= Niagara
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Dufferin - Innisfil
=new= Grey - Bruce
=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland
=new= Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
=new= Kingston - Prince Edward
=new= Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
=new= Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
=new= Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
=new= Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
=new= City of Ottawa
=new= Gatineau
=new= Prescott and Russell
=new= Cornwall - Morrisburg
=new= Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
=new= Parry Sound - Muskoka
=new= Haliburton
=new= Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
=new= Algonquin
=new= Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.
Potential winter storm boxing day into Thursday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Current indications suggest that a low pressure system will develop
over Texas on Christmas day and then move northeastward to pass south
of the Great Lakes region late in the day boxing day into Thursday.
Such a storm track would place Southern Ontario on the cold side of
the storm, with the potential for significant snowfall accumulations.
Present indications suggest that the snow would start in the
southwest during the day on boxing day, and then spread eastward to
reach Eastern Ontario later in the evening. In addition, gusty
northeast winds would result in local blowing snow reducing
visibilities. Conditions should improve from west to east on
Thursday.
It should be emphasized that this storm has yet to develop and the
track of the storm may alter. Thus it is still much too early to
forecast precipitation amounts. The public is strongly advised to
monitor future forecasts for more information regarding this
potential winter storm.
End
Monday Night, Dec. 24-25
LA southwest - 4
LA southeast, northwest - 2
TX upper coastal - 4
TX middle coastal - 3
TX northeast - 2 to 3
Tuesday, Dec. 25
AL central, southwest - 5
AL north - 3
FL west, central panhandle - 3 to 4
LA northeast - 5
LA northwest - 3 early
LA central, south - 4
MS central, south - 5
MS north - 3
TX upper coastal - 4 early
TX northeast - 3 early
other areas - 1 or less
Tuesday Night, Dec. 25-26
AL east-central, south - 5
AL northeast - 3
FL panhandle - 3
GA north, central - 3 to 4
GA southwest - 3
SC - 2 to 3
Wednesday, Dec. 26
FL east panhandle - 4
FL north - 4
FL central - 3
GA central, east - 4 to 5
NC central, east - 4
SC - 4 to 5
VA southeast - 2 to 3
nam 5am 84 hr snowfall totals
gfs 5:30am 120 hr snowfall totals
...ERN TX INTO CNTRL/SRN LA TONIGHT...
TEMPORARY HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF LOWER MS VALLEY DISTURBANCE
WILL STRENGTHEN THE EXISTING CAP AND EFFECTIVELY INHIBIT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DECELERATING COLD
FRONT. TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SSWLY LLJ WITHIN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE THE
NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THE POLEWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THESE PROCESSES WILL COINCIDE
WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING RAPID AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000-2000 J/KG BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AS EARLY AS 25/02Z-03Z TO
THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY INTO
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/ASCENT GRADUALLY
OVERCOME THE CAP. STORMS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT FURTHER STRENGTHENS IN EXIT
REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE
HAIL OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT.
THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS...INCLUDING TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 25/09Z-12Z ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID
60S PROMOTE MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2
AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE/ROTATION. DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EVOLVING LINE
SEGMENTS/BOWING STRUCTURES.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28
21:00 PM JST December 24 2012
===============================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.1N 130.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 9.3N 126.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Mindanao (Philippines)
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE INJECTED
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MOBILE HAS FOUND THAT THERE
IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF THESE STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES DURING
THE DAY WITH SOME TORNADOES POSSIBLY STRONG. IN ADDITION...LARGE
HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IS LIKELY.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OUT WEST ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR IN MISSISSIPPI. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RACE EASTWARD...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
CHRISTMAS EVENING AND EAST OF A BRANTLEY...LUVERNE TO DESTIN LINE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER
SITUATION.
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
433 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
LAZ016-023>026-MSZ038-039-043>066-072>074-251045-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT- NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER- CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
433 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
DAY AND EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH...QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP...
PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO JACKSON
AND DE KALB MISSISSIPPI LINE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. A
FEW STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP. HEAVY RAINFALL OF
TWO TO THREE INCHES IS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
$$
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>037-040> 042-251045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOM ERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HO LMES-ATTALA-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
433 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A COMPLEX AND STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE REGION
CHRISTMAS DAY. INITIALLY...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OF
TWO TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS COLDER AIR
SURGES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM...RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING AS FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.
Link
Great..
NAM for tomorrow significant tornado parameter:
SPC says an broken mcs line could maintain multiple strong tornadoes. A linear mode could promote extremely damaging winds.
Also models trending nw again
The low is a bit farther south this time around, but the severe threats are definitely comparable.
Which model you preferring, seems like NAM is stronger and further north and the GFS slightly weaker and further south....
NAM trending lower in pressure last few runs, opens upa visible 998mb isobar now, central pressure of the low should be 995mb or so.
Warm sector staying the same in the last few runs.
CAPE trending more reasonable, however with such a volatile atmosphere it wont take much to get up to 1000j/kg cape
NAM shear values trending higher
Viewing: 901 - 951
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