It was another year of incredible weather extremes unparalleled in American history during 2012. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters during the equally insane weather year of 2011. I present for you now the top ten weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact.
Video 1. Hour-by-hour animation of infrared satellite images for 2012. The loop goes in slow-motion to feature such events as Hurricane Sandy, the June Derecho, Summer in March, and other top weather events of 2012. The date stamp is at lower left; you will want to make the animation full screen to see the date. Special thanks to wunderground's Deb Mitchell for putting this together!
1) Superstorm Sandy Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 29), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic, with over 12 inches of rain observed in parts of Maryland. In addition, Sandy generated blizzard conditions for the central and southern Appalachians with more than a foot of snow falling in six states from North Carolina to Pennsylvania, shattering October snow records. Over 130 fatalities were reported and over 8.5 million customers lost power--the second largest weather-related power outage in U.S. history, behind the 10 million that lost power during the Blizzard of 1993. Damage from Sandy is estimated at $62 billion.
Figure 1. Cabs lie flooded on October 30, 2012, in Hoboken, NJ, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. AP photo: Charles Sykes.
2) Warmest Year on Record Spring, March, July, and the annual temperature were all warmest on record in the contiguous U.S. July was the warmest month of any month in the 1,400+ months of the U.S. data record, going back to 1895. The spring temperature departure from average was the largest on record for any season, and March temperatures had the second largest warm departure from average of any month in U.S. history. All-time hottest temperature records were set over approximately 7% of the area of the contiguous U.S., according to a database of 298 major U.S. cities maintained by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Given the very warm December temperatures so far, the final 2012 annual temperature is likely to break the previous warmest year on record (1998) by at least 0.7°F--a colossal margin to break an annual record by. It is likely that 15 states will end up with their warmest year on record in 2012, and 42 states will have a top-ten warmest year.
Figure 2. One of 2012's incredibly hot days: high temperatures on August 1 in Oklahoma from the Oklahoma Mesonet. It was the hottest day in Oklahoma since August 1936, with more than half of the state recording temperatures of 110° or higher. Oklahoma City hit 112°, tied for the city's 3nd highest temperature since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days occurred two days later--on August 3, 2012--and back on August 11, 1936 (113°.)
3) The Great Drought of 2012 The Great U.S. Drought of 2012 may well turn out to be the biggest weather story of 2012, since its full impacts have not yet been realized. The area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought peaked at 61.8% in July--the largest such area since the Dust Bowl drought of December 1939. The heat and dryness resulted in record or near-record evaporation rates, causing major impact on corn, soybean and wheat belts in addition to livestock production. Drought upstream of the Lower Mississippi River caused record and near-record low stream flows along the river in Mississippi and Louisiana, resulting in limited river transportation and commerce. Crop damages alone from the great drought are estimated at $35 billion. As the total scope of losses is realized across all lines of business in coming months, this number will climb significantly.
Figure 3. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.
4) Wildfire Season of 2012 The 2012 U.S. fire season was the 3rd worst in U.S. history, with 9.2 million acres burned--an area larger than the state of Maryland. Since the National Interagency Fire Center began keeping records in 1960, only two years have seen more area burned--2006, when 9.9 million acres burned, and 2007, when 9.3 million acres burned. New Mexico had its largest fire in state history, Colorado its most destructive and 2nd largest in state history, and Oregon had its largest fire since the 1860s. More than 3.6 million acres burned in the U.S. during August--the most on record for any August in recorded history.
Figure 4. Wunderphoto of Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire of 2012, the largest fire in New Mexico history. Wunderphoto submitted by AZMountaineer21.
5) March 2 - 3 Tornado Outbreak A massive tornado outbreak of stunning violence swept through the nation's midsection March 2 - 3, spawning deadly tornadoes that killed 41 people. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 22 and 13 dead, respectively. The scale of the outbreak was exceptional, with 70 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to southern Georgia. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak. An area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings, and tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas. The outbreak spawned two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. Total damage was estimated at $4 billion.
Figure 5. A school bus mangled by the EF-4 Henryville, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Image credit: NWS Louisville, Kentucky.
6) June 29 Multi-State Derecho A violent line of organized severe thunderstorms called a derecho swept across the U.S. from Illinois to Virginia on June 29, damaging houses, toppling trees, bringing down power lines. The storms killed 22 people, and left at least 3.4 million customers without power. The thunderstorms in a derecho (from the Spanish phrase for "straight ahead") create violent winds that blow in a straight line. The derecho was unusually intense due to extreme heat that set all-time records at ten major cities on the south side of the derecho. This heat helped create an unstable atmosphere with plenty of energy to fuel severe thunderstorms. At least 38 thunderstorms in the derecho generated wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, making the derecho one of the most severe derechoes on record. Total damage was estimated at $3.75 billion.
Figure 6. Turbulent clouds gather over Mettawa, Illinois on June 29, 2012, as the historic 2012 derecho begins to organize. Image credit: Wunderphotographer LarrySmit.
7) Hurricane Isaac Hurricane Isaac slowly lumbered ashore near the mouth of the Mississippi River on August 28 as a Category 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds. Isaac's large size and slow motion caused a storm surge more characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane--up to eleven feet--but New Orleans' new $14.5 billion levee upgrade held against Isaac's surge. The surge moved up the Mississippi River in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade. Isaac brought torrential rainfall, with more than twenty inches observed in some areas of New Orleans. Isaac also provided some drought relief to the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Isaac dumped up to 18" of rain in Florida, and disrupted the 2012 Republican Convention in Tampa. Isaac did $2 billion in damage.
Figure 7. Tropical Storm Isaac on August 28, a few hours before it intensified into a hurricane.
8) The Non-Winter of 2011-2012 "Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen. It's 2012, and the new year is ringing in another ridiculously wacky winter for the U.S. In Fargo, North Dakota yesterday, the mercury soared to 55°F, breaking a 1908 record for warmest January day in recorded history. More than 99% of North Dakota had no snow on the ground this morning, and over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year had below-average snow cover." That was the opening of my January 6, 2012 blog post, called "Remarkably dry and warm winter due to record extreme jet stream configuration." The contiguous U.S. saw its 3rd lowest snow cover on record during both winter and spring, and the winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest and 24th driest winter in U.S. history, going back to 1895. A primary cause of this warm and snowless winter was the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index was +2.52 in December 2011, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The positive NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S.
Figure 8. Flowers sprouting on January 1, 2012 in Keene, New Hampshire, thanks to unusually warm December temperatures and lack of snow. Image credit: Wunderphotographer lovne32.
9) April 30 - May 1 Severe Weather Outbreak A severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley April 30 - May 1 caused 38 tornadoes and $4 billion in damage.
10) Late-Spring Freeze: Northeast/Midwest After the record-warm "Summer in March" weather in the Great Lakes and Northeast, an April freeze damaged crops across the region. New York's fruit production was the lowest since 1948, and it was the worst fruit season for Michigan since 1945. Damage in Michigan alone was estimated at $500 million.
Honorable Mentions (text courtesy of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, with damage estimates from AON Benfield):
Severe Weather Outbreak (May): A strong cold front moving through the country on May 25 - 30 spawned 27 tornadoes from Texas to the Northeast. Damage was estimated at $2.5 billion, much of it from hail.
Severe Weather Outbreak (April): A tornado outbreak on April 13 - 14 in the Plains spawned 98 tornadoes and caused at least 6 fatalities. Damage was estimated at $1.75 billion.
Severe Weather Outbreak (June): Several days of severe storms across the Southwest spawned 25 tornadoes from June 6 - 12. Significant hail damage occurred across the Rocky Mountain Front Range, with total damage estimated at $1.75 billion.
Tropical Storm Debby/Wet Florida (June): Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Debby in early June caused damage estimated at $310 million, but Debby's rains helped break a drought in Northern Florida. Florida had its wettest summer on record, partially due to Debby.
Duluth Flooding (June): Training thunderstorms caused record flooding in and around Duluth Minnesota on June 20, with over 8 inches of rainfall observed in 24 hours in parts of the city. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, reported their highest flood heights on record. Damage was estimated at $175 million.
Pacific Northwest Winter Storm (January): A massive winter storm impacted the Pacific Northwest on January 18 - 23. Huge amounts of rain and snow fell, and hurricane-force wind gusts knocked out power to 250,000 customers. Damage was estimated at $100 million.
Hawaiian Hail Storm (March): On March 9, a cut-off low pressure system impacted the Hawaiian Islands, bringing heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. A rare EF-0 tornado hit the towns of Lanikai and Kailua on Oahu, causing minor damage. Another storm dropped a hailstone measuring 4.25 inches long, 2.25 inches tall, and 2 inches wide--the largest hailstone on record for Hawaii. Damage from the storms was estimated at $37 million.
Near-Record Low Great Lakes Levels (by end of 2012): Record warm temperatures throughout 2012 combined with low precipitation and low winter ice cover created high evaporation rates across the Great Lakes. In December, Lakes Michigan and Huron had fallen to within inches of the all-time record low lake levels set back in 1964. Low lake levels have a significant impact on recreational and commercial boating as well as tourism.
Slow Tornado Year (annual): Despite an active March, 2012 saw relatively low tornado numbers compared to recent history.
Mount Evans Tornado (July): A high elevation tornado was observed along the slope of Mount Evans at 11,900 feet--the second highest observed tornado in the U.S.
Alaska Cold Winter/Snow Record (winter): Several Alaskan locations had their coldest January on record. The monthly average temperature at Bettles, AK was -35.6°F. The statewide average January temperature was record cold--14°F below average. Record snow (134.5 inches) fell in Anchorage during the winter season, breaking the previous record set in 1954 - 55.
Alaskan Storms and Flooding (September): Several large extratropical cyclones impacted Alaska during September. Significant flooding occurred along the Sustina River and along its tributaries, causing the worse flooding in 30 years. Over 800 structures and dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed. The storms also brought early snowfall to southern portions of the state.
Death Valley sets world record for highest minimum temperature On Thursday morning, July 12, 2012 the low temperature at Death Valley, California dropped to just 107°F (41.7°C), after hitting a high of 128° (53.3°C) the previous day. Not only did the morning low temperature tie a record for the world's warmest low temperature ever recorded, the average temperature of 117.5°F was the world's warmest 24-hour temperature on record. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the only other place in the world to record a 107°F low temperature was Khasab Airport in the desert nation of Oman on June 27, 2012.
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center will release their top-ten list of U.S. weather events of 2012 on Tuesday, January 8, 2013.
Have a great holiday, everyone! I'll be back on December 26 with a new post.
Meanwhile, on the North Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Four appears to be having trouble strengthening due to strong easterly vertical shear at 25 kts. The shear is shifting the deep convection to the west of the center on satellite imagery. Since it is approaching land soon and in high shear environment, I highly doubt that the cyclone will strengthen any further. The cyclone is expected to move west-southwestward and make landfall on Somalia by 24 hours or so.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 3864
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 3864
853. Skyepony(Mod)3:39 AM GMT on December 24, 2012
I've been informed that a new disaster movie "Christmas Tornado" is coming on ION 11pm est.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29289
854. Skyepony(Mod)3:44 AM GMT on December 24, 2012
More flash flooding in the UK.
em>Homes have been evacuated after landslips due to flooding in a Swansea valley village and in Pontypridd. Residents in Ystalyfera spent the night in a leisure centre after 11 homes were affected. Meanwhile, a wall collapsed at the back of cottages in Berw Road, Pontypridd. Flooding was causing disruption on rail lines between Cardiff and Bridgend and near Caersws in Powys. There are seven flood warnings by the Environment Agency in Wales. Some residents have also had to leave their homes in Berw Road, Pontypridd, after a retaining wall collapsed with a "loud bang" overnight. David Stewart, whose son Craig lives in one of the affected houses, said: "It happened at about midnight. "It's a row of about 10 miners' cottages, and the wall collapsed. There's a black expanse of rubble and earth. "The rubble is up to the bedroom windows in some cases, and one kitchen has disappeared. How nobody was killed, I don't know." He said four houses had been evacuated, and engineers were examining the "precarious" wall on Sunday. He added: "My son and his partner have a seven-month-old son. They just had to leave straight away. They didn't even have time to grab a bottle for the baby."
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29289
855. Skyepony(Mod)3:47 AM GMT on December 24, 2012
Recovery from a tropical cyclone has a different ring to it in Fiji. Maybe it is hard to hype the news when people don't feel quite so entitled.
"Mats, clothes and mattresses littered village grounds as villagers tried to use the sun to dry out their belongings.
"Many were also trying to salvage washed up wood and corrugated roofing iron to rebuild their homes.
"It was evident from the hive of activity on the ground that people were picking up the pieces, working hard and quickly to get their life back to normalcy."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4371
As you can see...there is a gray line dividing the event, that's because I don't have much confidence of the east US scenario regarding to the snowfall accumulations.
All snowfalls for the west side of the line are expected within the shaded areas
as always, click imager for larger view
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7880
Cumulative snowfall at my house around 28 inches since the wee hours on Saturday morning. My method: Measure out in the driveway, clear it off. Measure again before clearing it off, etc. etc. etc...
There was an avalanche at a nearby ski area this morning, thankfully with only two injuries and no fatalities. Link
Member Since: January 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT MIDDAY TUESDAY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY DEVELOP AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID TUESDAY AT 21Z JUST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON MS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH ABOUT 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2 COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IF MANY CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...THEN CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE APPEARS JUST AS VIABLE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE THREATS MAY DEPEND UPON THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. IF THE FAVORED MODE ENDS UP BEING LINEAR...THEN WIND DAMAGE COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT.
I've never seen that kind of wording on Christmas Day. Interesting.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15429
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT MIDDAY TUESDAY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY DEVELOP AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID TUESDAY AT 21Z JUST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON MS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH ABOUT 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2 COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IF MANY CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...THEN CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE APPEARS JUST AS VIABLE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE THREATS MAY DEPEND UPON THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. IF THE FAVORED MODE ENDS UP BEING LINEAR...THEN WIND DAMAGE COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT.
I've never seen that kind of wording on Christmas Day. Interesting.
Merry Christmas! I would rather have a foot of snow than tornadoes on Christmas personally.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6784
Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 12:00 PM JST December 24 2012 ===============================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 132.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity ======================== 24 HRS: 8.8N 127.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Mindanao (Philippines)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686
You would monitor the weather while opening presents.
I really hope this doesn't be another disaster type scenario for the holidays.. B/c this potential setup is very dangerous and hope everyone would be careful if your in the area being warned.. But Merry Christmas to everyone tho
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
I really hope this doesn't be another disaster type scenario for the holidays.. B/c this potential setup is very dangerous and hope everyone would be careful if your in the area being warned.. But Merry Christmas to everyone tho
I absolutely love storms, and would like nothing less than to see this pan out.
I am definitely leery at the thought of people dying on Christmas Day though. Meh.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15429
I absolutely love storms, and would like nothing less than to see this pan out.
I am definitely leery at the thought of people dying on Christmas Day though. Meh.
I just hope that everyone would be safe.. I love this type of weather as well but mean no harm to ppl.. So far it looks like it will setup for something big.. But we will c.. more info by early morning to c for sho if its a total go for a big boomer..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
I'm really not excited about the whole Christmas tornado outbreak idea. That sounds absolutely awful.
chrismtmas? oh bob huh bug
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111341
883. Skyepony(Mod)5:25 AM GMT on December 24, 2012
This movie on ION is crazy. Christmas Tornado~ Big tornado out break starting in TX. I'm pretty sure there was some Joplin footage in there. Main love interest is a married couple with kids. He's a university met, using the most up to date models including with the climate change factor. She's works for the local news channel. Met there is all anti-climate change. They've really cut the science to layman's..from the radar screen's tornado centrifugal warning system, F scale instead of EF (per shame as this was made in 2012) & everyone is talking on CBs (to the university met) instead of HAM radios.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29289
I just hope that everyone would be safe.. I love this type of weather as well but mean no harm to ppl.. So far it looks like it will setup for something big.. But we will c.. more info by early morning to c for sho if its a total go for a big boomer..
Based on all the parameters I've seen thus far, I would definitely look for an upgrade to Moderate Risk by the SPC sometime today (24th).
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15429
Dew point is already 60F here, and I still have a solid 24-36 hours before the storms begin to initiate (I'm in southeast Louisiana). Sure would be nice to get some snow on the backside of this thing too, although I suspect the column will dry out prior to the arrival of the coldest air (forecast low is in the upper 30s with rain tomorrow night, but again, the rain will likely end early as northwesterly mid-level flow takes hold and generates subsidence).
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15429
Quoting KoritheMan: Dew point is already 60F here, and I still have a solid 24-36 hours before the storms begin to initiate (I'm in southeast Louisiana). Sure would be nice to get some snow on the backside of this thing too, although I suspect the column will dry out prior to the arrival of the coldest air (forecast low is in the upper 30s with rain tomorrow night, but again, the rain will likely end early as northwesterly mid-level flow takes hold and generates subsidence).
we might have a chance at snow in January since it is setting up to be cold and all..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997
Surprise me that the JTWC does not put this system as an AOI for tropical development.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2021
891. Skyepony(Mod)6:10 AM GMT on December 24, 2012
That movie Christmas Tornado gets a solid 4 out of 5 stars. Yeah there is some cheap made for TV disaster movie special effects, the science probibly couldn't have been more dumb down.. but it tries to capture today's conflicts between media & education including climate change, has the common weather disaster themes from past movies well wove in the fabric, typical players well cast, a F6 & what happens to the JB type character..well I won't spoil it for you.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29289
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VICKSBURG AND JACKSON MS ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHES 60 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 350 TO 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL BY TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. IF A WELL-DEVELOPED AND FAST MOVING SQUALL-LINE ORGANIZES...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF COAST STATES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3517
India Meteorological Department Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6 DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2012 8:30 AM IST December 24 2012 ===================================
At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved west southwestwards, and lays near 8.3N 53.8E, or about 430 km southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia).
The system is likely to intensify further and move west southwestwards and cross Somalia coast during evening/night of December 25th.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated broken low medium clouds with intense to very intense convection is seen over the southwest Arabian Sea between 6.0N and 12.5N east of 63.5E and adjoining parts of northeast Somalia.
3 minute sustained wind speed near the center is 30 knots gusting to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is about 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system.
Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude <1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 3 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 27-29C around system center and it gradually decreases towards Somalia coast. The ocean thermal energy is <40 kj/cm2 around the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center and providing poleward outflow for intensification. The low level convergence and upper level divergence shows no change. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (25 knots) around system center. As some features are favorable and others are not favorable, it may intensify into a marginal cyclonic storm during next 12 hrs.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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em>Homes have been evacuated after landslips due to flooding in a Swansea valley village and in Pontypridd. Residents in Ystalyfera spent the night in a leisure centre after 11 homes were affected. Meanwhile, a wall collapsed at the back of cottages in Berw Road, Pontypridd. Flooding was causing disruption on rail lines between Cardiff and Bridgend and near Caersws in Powys. There are seven flood warnings by the Environment Agency in Wales. Some residents have also had to leave their homes in Berw Road, Pontypridd, after a retaining wall collapsed with a "loud bang" overnight. David Stewart, whose son Craig lives in one of the affected houses, said: "It happened at about midnight. "It's a row of about 10 miners' cottages, and the wall collapsed. There's a black expanse of rubble and earth. "The rubble is up to the bedroom windows in some cases, and one kitchen has disappeared. How nobody was killed, I don't know." He said four houses had been evacuated, and engineers were examining the "precarious" wall on Sunday. He added: "My son and his partner have a seven-month-old son. They just had to leave straight away. They didn't even have time to grab a bottle for the baby."
"Mats, clothes and mattresses littered village grounds as villagers tried to use the sun to dry out their belongings.
"Many were also trying to salvage washed up wood and corrugated roofing iron to rebuild their homes.
"It was evident from the hive of activity on the ground that people were picking up the pieces, working hard and quickly to get their life back to normalcy."
_________________________________
Winter Storm Euclid
As you can see...there is a gray line dividing the event,
that's because I don't have much confidence of the east US
scenario regarding to the snowfall accumulations.
All snowfalls for the west side of the line are expected within the shaded areas
as always, click imager for larger view
Except for SE MI, we got only 1-3. I received an inch from it and it is already gone.
Monday 12/24 - Morning
Breezy whitecapping conditions with moderate choppy seas. Large long period swell. Winds: E 11 to 15 knots
Seas: NNE 10 feet at 13 sec.
There was an avalanche at a nearby ski area this morning, thankfully with only two injuries and no fatalities. Link
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT MIDDAY TUESDAY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY DEVELOP
AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID TUESDAY AT 21Z
JUST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON MS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2 COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IF MANY CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...THEN
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES FROM
TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE APPEARS JUST AS VIABLE. THE MAGNITUDE OF
THESE THREATS MAY DEPEND UPON THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. IF THE
FAVORED MODE ENDS UP BEING LINEAR...THEN WIND DAMAGE COULD BE THE
GREATER THREAT.
I've never seen that kind of wording on Christmas Day. Interesting.
Merry Christmas! I would rather have a foot of snow than tornadoes on Christmas personally.
I like both. This one in particular is exciting to me because it's never happened for as long as I've been alive.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28
12:00 PM JST December 24 2012
===============================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 132.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 8.8N 127.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Mindanao (Philippines)
If I had tornadoes up in MI during Christmas I don't know what I would do. The Dexter tornado was early enough.
You would monitor the weather while opening presents.
I would probably just say screw presents and go monitor the weather :P Sadly I might have done that if that would happen, or with a big snow.
I really hope this doesn't be another disaster type scenario for the holidays.. B/c this potential setup is very dangerous and hope everyone would be careful if your in the area being warned.. But Merry Christmas to everyone tho
eekkk
I absolutely love storms, and would like nothing less than to see this pan out.
I am definitely leery at the thought of people dying on Christmas Day though. Meh.
Talk about duality.
I'm really not excited about the whole Christmas tornado outbreak idea. That sounds absolutely awful.
We'll know by Wednesday what happened and what didn't. A bit hard to prepare for tornadoes, though.
I just hope that everyone would be safe.. I love this type of weather as well but mean no harm to ppl.. So far it looks like it will setup for something big.. But we will c.. more info by early morning to c for sho if its a total go for a big boomer..
chrismtmas? oh bob huh bug
Based on all the parameters I've seen thus far, I would definitely look for an upgrade to Moderate Risk by the SPC sometime today (24th).
we might have a chance at snow in January since it is setting up to be cold and all..
Tropical Cyclone Report: Tropical Storm Tony (AL192012)
DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS
0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHES 60 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF
350 TO 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL BY TUESDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT
BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR
WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. A THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. IF A WELL-DEVELOPED AND FAST MOVING SQUALL-LINE
ORGANIZES...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF
COAST STATES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2012
8:30 AM IST December 24 2012
===================================
At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved west southwestwards, and lays near 8.3N 53.8E, or about 430 km southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia).
The system is likely to intensify further and move west southwestwards and cross Somalia coast during evening/night of December 25th.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated broken low medium clouds with intense to very intense convection is seen over the southwest Arabian Sea between 6.0N and 12.5N east of 63.5E and adjoining parts of northeast Somalia.
3 minute sustained wind speed near the center is 30 knots gusting to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is about 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system.
Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude <1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 3 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 27-29C around system center and it gradually decreases towards Somalia coast. The ocean thermal energy is <40 kj/cm2 around the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center and providing poleward outflow for intensification. The low level convergence and upper level divergence shows no change. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (25 knots) around system center. As some features are favorable and others are not favorable, it may intensify into a marginal cyclonic storm during next 12 hrs.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 7.5N 51.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 7.3N 50.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 6.5N 48.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
Viewing: 851 - 901
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