It was another year of incredible weather extremes unparalleled in American history during 2012. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters during the equally insane weather year of 2011. I present for you now the top ten weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact.
Video 1. Hour-by-hour animation of infrared satellite images for 2012. The loop goes in slow-motion to feature such events as Hurricane Sandy, the June Derecho, Summer in March, and other top weather events of 2012. The date stamp is at lower left; you will want to make the animation full screen to see the date. Special thanks to wunderground's Deb Mitchell for putting this together!
1) Superstorm Sandy Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 29), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic, with over 12 inches of rain observed in parts of Maryland. In addition, Sandy generated blizzard conditions for the central and southern Appalachians with more than a foot of snow falling in six states from North Carolina to Pennsylvania, shattering October snow records. Over 130 fatalities were reported and over 8.5 million customers lost power--the second largest weather-related power outage in U.S. history, behind the 10 million that lost power during the Blizzard of 1993. Damage from Sandy is estimated at $62 billion.
Figure 1. Cabs lie flooded on October 30, 2012, in Hoboken, NJ, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. AP photo: Charles Sykes.
2) Warmest Year on Record Spring, March, July, and the annual temperature were all warmest on record in the contiguous U.S. July was the warmest month of any month in the 1,400+ months of the U.S. data record, going back to 1895. The spring temperature departure from average was the largest on record for any season, and March temperatures had the second largest warm departure from average of any month in U.S. history. All-time hottest temperature records were set over approximately 7% of the area of the contiguous U.S., according to a database of 298 major U.S. cities maintained by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Given the very warm December temperatures so far, the final 2012 annual temperature is likely to break the previous warmest year on record (1998) by at least 0.7°F--a colossal margin to break an annual record by. It is likely that 15 states will end up with their warmest year on record in 2012, and 42 states will have a top-ten warmest year.
Figure 2. One of 2012's incredibly hot days: high temperatures on August 1 in Oklahoma from the Oklahoma Mesonet. It was the hottest day in Oklahoma since August 1936, with more than half of the state recording temperatures of 110° or higher. Oklahoma City hit 112°, tied for the city's 3nd highest temperature since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days occurred two days later--on August 3, 2012--and back on August 11, 1936 (113°.)
3) The Great Drought of 2012 The Great U.S. Drought of 2012 may well turn out to be the biggest weather story of 2012, since its full impacts have not yet been realized. The area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought peaked at 61.8% in July--the largest such area since the Dust Bowl drought of December 1939. The heat and dryness resulted in record or near-record evaporation rates, causing major impact on corn, soybean and wheat belts in addition to livestock production. Drought upstream of the Lower Mississippi River caused record and near-record low stream flows along the river in Mississippi and Louisiana, resulting in limited river transportation and commerce. Crop damages alone from the great drought are estimated at $35 billion. As the total scope of losses is realized across all lines of business in coming months, this number will climb significantly.
Figure 3. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.
4) Wildfire Season of 2012 The 2012 U.S. fire season was the 3rd worst in U.S. history, with 9.2 million acres burned--an area larger than the state of Maryland. Since the National Interagency Fire Center began keeping records in 1960, only two years have seen more area burned--2006, when 9.9 million acres burned, and 2007, when 9.3 million acres burned. New Mexico had its largest fire in state history, Colorado its most destructive and 2nd largest in state history, and Oregon had its largest fire since the 1860s. More than 3.6 million acres burned in the U.S. during August--the most on record for any August in recorded history.
Figure 4. Wunderphoto of Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire of 2012, the largest fire in New Mexico history. Wunderphoto submitted by AZMountaineer21.
5) March 2 - 3 Tornado Outbreak A massive tornado outbreak of stunning violence swept through the nation's midsection March 2 - 3, spawning deadly tornadoes that killed 41 people. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 22 and 13 dead, respectively. The scale of the outbreak was exceptional, with 70 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to southern Georgia. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak. An area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings, and tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas. The outbreak spawned two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. Total damage was estimated at $4 billion.
Figure 5. A school bus mangled by the EF-4 Henryville, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Image credit: NWS Louisville, Kentucky.
6) June 29 Multi-State Derecho A violent line of organized severe thunderstorms called a derecho swept across the U.S. from Illinois to Virginia on June 29, damaging houses, toppling trees, bringing down power lines. The storms killed 22 people, and left at least 3.4 million customers without power. The thunderstorms in a derecho (from the Spanish phrase for "straight ahead") create violent winds that blow in a straight line. The derecho was unusually intense due to extreme heat that set all-time records at ten major cities on the south side of the derecho. This heat helped create an unstable atmosphere with plenty of energy to fuel severe thunderstorms. At least 38 thunderstorms in the derecho generated wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, making the derecho one of the most severe derechoes on record. Total damage was estimated at $3.75 billion.
Figure 6. Turbulent clouds gather over Mettawa, Illinois on June 29, 2012, as the historic 2012 derecho begins to organize. Image credit: Wunderphotographer LarrySmit.
7) Hurricane Isaac Hurricane Isaac slowly lumbered ashore near the mouth of the Mississippi River on August 28 as a Category 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds. Isaac's large size and slow motion caused a storm surge more characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane--up to eleven feet--but New Orleans' new $14.5 billion levee upgrade held against Isaac's surge. The surge moved up the Mississippi River in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade. Isaac brought torrential rainfall, with more than twenty inches observed in some areas of New Orleans. Isaac also provided some drought relief to the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Isaac dumped up to 18" of rain in Florida, and disrupted the 2012 Republican Convention in Tampa. Isaac did $2 billion in damage.
Figure 7. Tropical Storm Isaac on August 28, a few hours before it intensified into a hurricane.
8) The Non-Winter of 2011-2012 "Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen. It's 2012, and the new year is ringing in another ridiculously wacky winter for the U.S. In Fargo, North Dakota yesterday, the mercury soared to 55°F, breaking a 1908 record for warmest January day in recorded history. More than 99% of North Dakota had no snow on the ground this morning, and over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year had below-average snow cover." That was the opening of my January 6, 2012 blog post, called "Remarkably dry and warm winter due to record extreme jet stream configuration." The contiguous U.S. saw its 3rd lowest snow cover on record during both winter and spring, and the winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest and 24th driest winter in U.S. history, going back to 1895. A primary cause of this warm and snowless winter was the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index was +2.52 in December 2011, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The positive NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S.
Figure 8. Flowers sprouting on January 1, 2012 in Keene, New Hampshire, thanks to unusually warm December temperatures and lack of snow. Image credit: Wunderphotographer lovne32.
9) April 30 - May 1 Severe Weather Outbreak A severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley April 30 - May 1 caused 38 tornadoes and $4 billion in damage.
10) Late-Spring Freeze: Northeast/Midwest After the record-warm "Summer in March" weather in the Great Lakes and Northeast, an April freeze damaged crops across the region. New York's fruit production was the lowest since 1948, and it was the worst fruit season for Michigan since 1945. Damage in Michigan alone was estimated at $500 million.
Honorable Mentions (text courtesy of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, with damage estimates from AON Benfield):
Severe Weather Outbreak (May): A strong cold front moving through the country on May 25 - 30 spawned 27 tornadoes from Texas to the Northeast. Damage was estimated at $2.5 billion, much of it from hail.
Severe Weather Outbreak (April): A tornado outbreak on April 13 - 14 in the Plains spawned 98 tornadoes and caused at least 6 fatalities. Damage was estimated at $1.75 billion.
Severe Weather Outbreak (June): Several days of severe storms across the Southwest spawned 25 tornadoes from June 6 - 12. Significant hail damage occurred across the Rocky Mountain Front Range, with total damage estimated at $1.75 billion.
Tropical Storm Debby/Wet Florida (June): Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Debby in early June caused damage estimated at $310 million, but Debby's rains helped break a drought in Northern Florida. Florida had its wettest summer on record, partially due to Debby.
Duluth Flooding (June): Training thunderstorms caused record flooding in and around Duluth Minnesota on June 20, with over 8 inches of rainfall observed in 24 hours in parts of the city. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, reported their highest flood heights on record. Damage was estimated at $175 million.
Pacific Northwest Winter Storm (January): A massive winter storm impacted the Pacific Northwest on January 18 - 23. Huge amounts of rain and snow fell, and hurricane-force wind gusts knocked out power to 250,000 customers. Damage was estimated at $100 million.
Hawaiian Hail Storm (March): On March 9, a cut-off low pressure system impacted the Hawaiian Islands, bringing heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. A rare EF-0 tornado hit the towns of Lanikai and Kailua on Oahu, causing minor damage. Another storm dropped a hailstone measuring 4.25 inches long, 2.25 inches tall, and 2 inches wide--the largest hailstone on record for Hawaii. Damage from the storms was estimated at $37 million.
Near-Record Low Great Lakes Levels (by end of 2012): Record warm temperatures throughout 2012 combined with low precipitation and low winter ice cover created high evaporation rates across the Great Lakes. In December, Lakes Michigan and Huron had fallen to within inches of the all-time record low lake levels set back in 1964. Low lake levels have a significant impact on recreational and commercial boating as well as tourism.
Slow Tornado Year (annual): Despite an active March, 2012 saw relatively low tornado numbers compared to recent history.
Mount Evans Tornado (July): A high elevation tornado was observed along the slope of Mount Evans at 11,900 feet--the second highest observed tornado in the U.S.
Alaska Cold Winter/Snow Record (winter): Several Alaskan locations had their coldest January on record. The monthly average temperature at Bettles, AK was -35.6°F. The statewide average January temperature was record cold--14°F below average. Record snow (134.5 inches) fell in Anchorage during the winter season, breaking the previous record set in 1954 - 55.
Alaskan Storms and Flooding (September): Several large extratropical cyclones impacted Alaska during September. Significant flooding occurred along the Sustina River and along its tributaries, causing the worse flooding in 30 years. Over 800 structures and dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed. The storms also brought early snowfall to southern portions of the state.
Death Valley sets world record for highest minimum temperature On Thursday morning, July 12, 2012 the low temperature at Death Valley, California dropped to just 107°F (41.7°C), after hitting a high of 128° (53.3°C) the previous day. Not only did the morning low temperature tie a record for the world's warmest low temperature ever recorded, the average temperature of 117.5°F was the world's warmest 24-hour temperature on record. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the only other place in the world to record a 107°F low temperature was Khasab Airport in the desert nation of Oman on June 27, 2012.
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center will release their top-ten list of U.S. weather events of 2012 on Tuesday, January 8, 2013.
Have a great holiday, everyone! I'll be back on December 26 with a new post.
Quoting Neapolitan: Congratulations, and good on him and on you, Doug. A cousin of mine went through the process a number of years ago; I sincerely wish your son the best of luck in becoming an official candidate and, eventually, an enrolled student.
Thanks for the well-wished Nea. Merry Christmas!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4827
I just put together a quick blog on potential upcoming storms for my area. It's really more for me to just keep track of my forecasts than anything else, but if you live in my general area or are interested in the weather up here you might find it interesting.
Quoting TropicalTony: How much snow can St.Louis expect from the Christmas storm?
Might not be too much. Your atmosphere is modeled dry. As the snow begins to fall high-up, it will slowly moisten the column as it evaporates and you could see an inch, maybe two.
A little bit more northern track of the storm system could increase your chances of more.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12841
Spent some more time looking at the posts on contrailscience.com and want to emphasize that there is some good stuff there. There also are comments from die hard conspiracy theorists, but oh well.
The author talks about techniques for preventing contrails--important if you are a U2 pilot for instance or concerned about the warming effect of persistent contrail clouds.
"Another technique that has been suggested and tried over the year is adding some kind of chemical to the exhaust to prevent [emphasis added] contrail formation. The most common approach is to add many times MORE condensation nuclei to the exhaust. The large number of condensation nuclei create lots more ice crystals, but they are very small, and if the size can be kept under half a micron then they will be sub-visible. It's not a guaranteed fix though, as the contrail can still continue to grow visible if condition are humid enough. Presumably though by the time the trail become visible, the plane will be long gone. So that's great for stealth, but might not be that useful for climate concerns."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4357
563. Skyepony(Mod)1:19 AM GMT on December 23, 2012
Saturn at Night Image Credit: NASA, JPL-Caltech, Space Science Institute, Cassini Imaging Team
Explanation: Splendors seldom seen are revealed in this glorious picture from Saturn's shadow. Imaged by Cassini on October 17, 2012 during its 174th orbit, the ringed planet's night side is viewed from a perspective 19 degrees below the ring plane at a distance of about 800,000 kilometers with the Sun almost directly behind the planet. A 60 frame mosaic, images made with infrared, red, and violet filters were combined to create an enhanced, false-color view. Strongly backlit, the rings look bright away from the planet but dark in silhouette against the gas giant. Above center, they reflect a faint, eerie light on the cloud tops while Saturn casts its own dark shadow on the rings. A similar Cassini image from 2006 also featured planet Earth as a pale blue dot in the distance. Instead, this scene includes icy moons Enceladus (closer to the rings) and Tethys below the rings on the left.
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567. Skyepony(Mod)1:33 AM GMT on December 23, 2012
CIMSS sat blog has a good write up on the blizzard that was just through. Go here for the whole thing. Awesome after snow from Suomi..
A comparison of a daytime Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel image with the corresponding false-color Red/Green/Blue (RGB) image at 19:35 UTC or 2:35 PM local time on 20 December showed that much of the northern and central Plains states had snow cover (shades of red on the RGB image); however, note that there was a large area of bare ground across the South Dakota-Nebraska border region. Even though moonlight illumination was not optimal, the Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.7 µm Day/Night Band on the following night at 07:52 UTC or 2:52 AM local time was able to show the contrast between the darker bare ground areas and the adjacent brighter areas of snow cover.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29243
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 001 WTIO31 PGTW 230300 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 8.7N 59.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 59.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 8.6N 56.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 8.6N 54.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 8.5N 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 8.2N 51.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 7.6N 48.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 58.9E.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 221830Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 221830 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. // BT #0001
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8104
Doug, that's wonderful news. Annapolis produces some fine engineers, and the best Naval and Marine Officers in the world. Your son will be able to measure himself alongside some of the best in many fields during his Naval Career, a rare opportunity. I am very happy for all of you.
Now the important stuff, Navy has beat Army ELEVEN times in a row! Next year it is a dirty dozen.
Go NAVY, beat ARMY !
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1778
Quoting indianrivguy: Doug, that's wonderful news. Annapolis produces some fine engineers, and the best Naval and Marine Officers in the world. Your son will be able to measure himself alongside some of the best in many fields during his Naval Career, a rare opportunity. I am very happy for all of you.
Now the important stuff, Navy has beat Army ELEVEN times in a row! Next year it is a dirty dozen.
Go NAVY, beat ARMY !
That last loss was hard. Of course, the TV cameras showed absolutely no respect. If you saw it, you know what I mean.
Those streaks can have a way of biting you though. LSU had beaten Tulane 24 years in a row. Buttons were made up before the next game celebrating 25 in a row. Guess who won.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4357
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: The 0z GFS shows favorable thermodynamics for a widespread, major severe weather outbreak on Christmas Day...afternoon. It's also looking more likely tornadoes will be a threat.
Hodograph from Alabama in advance of the storm:
and sounding...
A little confused here on what run this is from and when it is valid-but that is certainly not a favorable thermodynamic profile.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12841
Quoting bappit: That last loss was hard. Of course, the TV cameras showed absolutely no respect. If you saw it, you know what I mean.
Those streaks can have a way of biting you though. LSU had beaten Tulane 24 years in a row. Buttons were made up before the next game celebrating 25 in a row. Guess who won.
I'm pretty surprised that the streak has continued after Paul Johnson left for GT. Navy is now weaker by a lot comparatively speaking, but somehow the ball has been rolling Navy's way. Army's new familiarity with the triple option nearly won them the game. Both teams spent the game taking turns mauling each others defense, and Army came very close.
I agree on the camera, I thought it was rude and unnecessary.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1778
Figure 2. One of 2012's incredibly hot days: high temperatures on August 1 in Oklahoma from the Oklahoma Mesonet. It was the hottest day in Oklahoma since August 1936, with more than half of the state recording temperatures of 110 or higher. Oklahoma City hit 112, tied for the city's 3nd highest temperature since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days occurred two days later--on August 3, 2012--and back on August 11, 1936 (113.)
Certainly true. Most Okies, though, will tell you August 2012 was in no way comparable to 2011 tempwise. Ranchers still got winter wheat hanging in this year. In 2010, the wheat was plowed under, and by August 2011, everything was dying with no feed for livestock except what was imported. For more perspective (add: on temps and drought), here's a page newly published (Dec 20, 2012) by NWS Norman, Precipitation and Drought Information for Oklahoma and North Texas. Concentrated on their forecast area.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I'm confused now. How isn't that favorable?
Favorable for rain. Saturated. All through the column. Hard to get an updraft going with that kind of precip loading.
Where's the CAPE? There is none. The point sounding looks remarkably similar to the 18Z GFS valid at 18Z Tuesday for Tuscaloosa, AL (about 15 miles north).
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12841
Favorable for rain. Saturated. All through the column. Hard to get an updraft going with that kind of precip loading.
Where's the CAPE? There is none. The point sounding looks remarkably similar to the 18Z GFS valid at 18Z Tuesday for Tuscaloosa, AL (about 15 miles north).
I think I caught Allan Huffman's page in the time when it changes all the images on the 0Z GFS to say 0Z, but still shows 18z data.
Anyways, with that past, here's the 0Z NAM...
No Saturation or CAPE issue. I see what you mean now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25155
Hi everybody. Did anyone notice this in Beryl's TCR? Acknowledgements Much of the data in this report was furnished by the National Weather Service Forecast Offices in Melbourne, Florida; Jacksonville, Florida; Charleston, South Carolina; Wilmington, North Carolina; and Morehead City, North Carolina. David Roth of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland provided additional rainfall data for the United States. Jay Titlow of Weatherflow provded the Weatherflow data, while Jeff Masters of the WeatherUnderground provided the WeatherUnderground data. The Meteorological Service of Cuba provided the rainfall data from Cuba.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 88 Comments: 2470
Quoting SFLWeatherman: 38 now in WPB at 9:00PM it going to get cold
You guys are colder than us here on the west coast of FL. at my location in Largo we are down to 41 degrees, I wouldn't be surprised if we bottomed out in the 30s.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I think I caught Allan Huffman's page in the time when it changes all the images on the 0Z GFS to say 0Z, but still shows 18z data.
Anyways, with that past, here's the 0Z NAM...
No Saturation or CAPE issue. I see what you mean now.
Ok, now the NAM and we moved 50-55 miles to the WSW in Mississippi-with some instability. Near the warm front which raises the possibility of increased surface convergence-butt who nose?.
Don't mistake my comment as a downcast. I agree with you. Just not that particular sounding. There is a very good chance for severe wx over the gulf coast states beginning Christmas morning in SE TX and moving east.
The wind profile you posted is probably representative of what we might see over the SE. So it may not take a whole lot of instability to get the watches and warnings going.
That precip loaded sounding may be indicative of widespread cloud cover and rain along and N of the warm front-so closer to the coasts of LA, MS, & AL on Tuesday afternoon may allow a greater potential for surface based storms.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12841
Why is it that TWC has 61 degrees at my location yet Wunderground has 40 degrees? I believe Wunderground more because there is already frost forming on the car and I can blow smoke out of my mouth outside.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5166
India Meteorological Department Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3 DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2012 5:30 AM IST December 23 2012 ===================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea moved westward and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression ARB02 lays near 9.0N 60.5E or about 1350 km west southwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep), 1050 km east southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia), and about 800 km southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen).
The system is likely to intensify further and move west southwestward, crossing Somalia coast between 1200-1800 PM UTC (December 25th).
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -75C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 5.0N and 12.5N and 52.5E and 65.0E.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system.
The latest ASCAT observation at 1644 PM UTC (December 22) indicates maximum surface wind of 30 knots in the northern sector and 15-20 knots in the southern sector of the deep depression.
Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude <1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 3 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 28-30C. Around system center and it gradually decreases towards Somalia coast. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It decreases towards Somalia coast. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center and providing poleward outflow for intensification. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low (5-10 knots) around system center, which favors intensification.
Quoting Stormchaser121: Wish southeast Texas could get snow instead of rain on Christmas day :/
I just wish we could get any weather cooler/colder and on the rainier side versus the upper 70s and sunny that is forecast for Christmas here. I'm enjoying tonight though, right around 40F here at the moment.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 587
Quoting GTcooliebai: Why is it that TWC has 61 degrees at my location yet Wunderground has 40 degrees? I believe Wunderground more because there is already frost forming on the car and I can blow smoke out of my mouth outside.
GT..its cold by me but no frost here yet..i think pinellas got saved by being surrounded by water...Tampa got it for sure though
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421
Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.
About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Thats plain out Awesome. Congrats!!!
Thankyou!
I like to think so! Some would say not!
Thanks and Good morning!
Thanks for the well-wished Nea. Merry Christmas!
Thanks much!
Merry Christmas all! We're having guests here tonight so I'll be out for a while!
Link
Might not be too much. Your atmosphere is modeled dry. As the snow begins to fall high-up, it will slowly moisten the column as it evaporates and you could see an inch, maybe two.
A little bit more northern track of the storm system could increase your chances of more.
The author talks about techniques for preventing contrails--important if you are a U2 pilot for instance or concerned about the warming effect of persistent contrail clouds.
"Another technique that has been suggested and tried over the year is adding some kind of chemical to the exhaust to prevent [emphasis added] contrail formation. The most common approach is to add many times MORE condensation nuclei to the exhaust. The large number of condensation nuclei create lots more ice crystals, but they are very small, and if the size can be kept under half a micron then they will be sub-visible. It's not a guaranteed fix though, as the contrail can still continue to grow visible if condition are humid enough. Presumably though by the time the trail become visible, the plane will be long gone. So that's great for stealth, but might not be that useful for climate concerns."
Contrail Science: The Science and Pseudoscience of Contrails and Chemtrails
This NOAA site in turn has a link to a bird/radar web site: Radar Ornithology Laboratory at Clemson University.
Saturn at Night
Image Credit: NASA, JPL-Caltech, Space Science Institute, Cassini Imaging Team
Explanation: Splendors seldom seen are revealed in this glorious picture from Saturn's shadow. Imaged by Cassini on October 17, 2012 during its 174th orbit, the ringed planet's night side is viewed from a perspective 19 degrees below the ring plane at a distance of about 800,000 kilometers with the Sun almost directly behind the planet. A 60 frame mosaic, images made with infrared, red, and violet filters were combined to create an enhanced, false-color view. Strongly backlit, the rings look bright away from the planet but dark in silhouette against the gas giant. Above center, they reflect a faint, eerie light on the cloud tops while Saturn casts its own dark shadow on the rings. A similar Cassini image from 2006 also featured planet Earth as a pale blue dot in the distance. Instead, this scene includes icy moons Enceladus (closer to the rings) and Tethys below the rings on the left.
YW, Tony. Another and maybe better chance for 2-3 inches on Friday.
Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Ernesto (AL052012)
A comparison of a daytime Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel image with the corresponding false-color Red/Green/Blue (RGB) image at 19:35 UTC or 2:35 PM local time on 20 December showed that much of the northern and central Plains states had snow cover (shades of red on the RGB image); however, note that there was a large area of bare ground across the South Dakota-Nebraska border region. Even though moonlight illumination was not optimal, the Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.7 µm Day/Night Band on the following night at 07:52 UTC or 2:52 AM local time was able to show the contrast between the darker bare ground areas and the adjacent brighter areas of snow cover.
WTIO31 PGTW 230300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 8.7N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 8.6N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.6N 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 8.5N 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 8.2N 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 7.6N 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 58.9E.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 221830Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTIO21 PGTW 221830 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
//
BT
#0001
All that snow... goes right to the south of me ----____----
And then there's Michigan's upper peninsula....
In the FWIW department, after checking out Skye's link I thought of looking up some of the terms. This PDF seemed to come the closest: Frontogenetic Precipitation Bands and CSI Primer. Also took a gander at Understanding Frontogenesis and ...
Now I know more about what I don't know.
Now the important stuff, Navy has beat Army ELEVEN times in a row! Next year it is a dirty dozen.
Go NAVY, beat ARMY !
That last loss was hard. Of course, the TV cameras showed absolutely no respect. If you saw it, you know what I mean.
Those streaks can have a way of biting you though. LSU had beaten Tulane 24 years in a row. Buttons were made up before the next game celebrating 25 in a row. Guess who won.
A little confused here on what run this is from and when it is valid-but that is certainly not a favorable thermodynamic profile.
I'm confused now. How isn't that favorable?
I'm pretty surprised that the streak has continued after Paul Johnson left for GT. Navy is now weaker by a lot comparatively speaking, but somehow the ball has been rolling Navy's way. Army's new familiarity with the triple option nearly won them the game. Both teams spent the game taking turns mauling each others defense, and Army came very close.
I agree on the camera, I thought it was rude and unnecessary.
Certainly true. Most Okies, though, will tell you August 2012 was in no way comparable to 2011 tempwise. Ranchers still got winter wheat hanging in this year. In 2010, the wheat was plowed under, and by August 2011, everything was dying with no feed for livestock except what was imported. For more perspective (add: on temps and drought), here's a page newly published (Dec 20, 2012) by NWS Norman, Precipitation and Drought Information for Oklahoma and North Texas. Concentrated on their forecast area.
Favorable for rain. Saturated. All through the column. Hard to get an updraft going with that kind of precip loading.
Where's the CAPE? There is none. The point sounding looks remarkably similar to the 18Z GFS valid at 18Z Tuesday for Tuscaloosa, AL (about 15 miles north).
I think I caught Allan Huffman's page in the time when it changes all the images on the 0Z GFS to say 0Z, but still shows 18z data.
Anyways, with that past, here's the 0Z NAM...
No Saturation or CAPE issue. I see what you mean now.
Did anyone notice this in Beryl's TCR?
Acknowledgements
Much of the data in this report was furnished by the National Weather Service Forecast
Offices in Melbourne, Florida; Jacksonville, Florida; Charleston, South Carolina; Wilmington,
North Carolina; and Morehead City, North Carolina. David Roth of the Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland provided additional rainfall data for the United
States. Jay Titlow of Weatherflow provded the Weatherflow data, while Jeff Masters of the
WeatherUnderground provided the WeatherUnderground data. The Meteorological Service of
Cuba provided the rainfall data from Cuba.
Ok, now the NAM and we moved 50-55 miles to the WSW in Mississippi-with some instability. Near the warm front which raises the possibility of increased surface convergence-butt who nose?.
Don't mistake my comment as a downcast. I agree with you. Just not that particular sounding. There is a very good chance for severe wx over the gulf coast states beginning Christmas morning in SE TX and moving east.
The wind profile you posted is probably representative of what we might see over the SE. So it may not take a whole lot of instability to get the watches and warnings going.
That precip loaded sounding may be indicative of widespread cloud cover and rain along and N of the warm front-so closer to the coasts of LA, MS, & AL on Tuesday afternoon may allow a greater potential for surface based storms.
I'm equally happy with the severe weather (although snow would be nice too).
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2012
5:30 AM IST December 23 2012
===================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea moved westward and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression ARB02 lays near 9.0N 60.5E or about 1350 km west southwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep), 1050 km east southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia), and about 800 km southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen).
The system is likely to intensify further and move west southwestward, crossing Somalia coast between 1200-1800 PM UTC (December 25th).
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -75C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 5.0N and 12.5N and 52.5E and 65.0E.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system.
The latest ASCAT observation at 1644 PM UTC (December 22) indicates maximum surface wind of 30 knots in the northern sector and 15-20 knots in the southern sector of the deep depression.
Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude <1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 3 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 28-30C. Around system center and it gradually decreases towards Somalia coast. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It decreases towards Somalia coast. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center and providing poleward outflow for intensification. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low (5-10 knots) around system center, which favors intensification.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 8.8N 57.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 8.6N 55.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 8.0N 51.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 7.4N 49.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
I just wish we could get any weather cooler/colder and on the rainier side versus the upper 70s and sunny that is forecast for Christmas here. I'm enjoying tonight though, right around 40F here at the moment.
Well, I'm not surprised that TWC is wrong.
i should have used Australia's site instead
TWC is good generally for USA weather only.
it sucks other than for that
Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Wednesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 24.
Viewing: 551 - 601
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