It was another year of incredible weather extremes unparalleled in American history during 2012. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters during the equally insane weather year of 2011. I present for you now the top ten weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact.
Video 1. Hour-by-hour animation of infrared satellite images for 2012. The loop goes in slow-motion to feature such events as Hurricane Sandy, the June Derecho, Summer in March, and other top weather events of 2012. The date stamp is at lower left; you will want to make the animation full screen to see the date. Special thanks to wunderground's Deb Mitchell for putting this together!
1) Superstorm Sandy Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 29), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic, with over 12 inches of rain observed in parts of Maryland. In addition, Sandy generated blizzard conditions for the central and southern Appalachians with more than a foot of snow falling in six states from North Carolina to Pennsylvania, shattering October snow records. Over 130 fatalities were reported and over 8.5 million customers lost power--the second largest weather-related power outage in U.S. history, behind the 10 million that lost power during the Blizzard of 1993. Damage from Sandy is estimated at $62 billion.
Figure 1. Cabs lie flooded on October 30, 2012, in Hoboken, NJ, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. AP photo: Charles Sykes.
2) Warmest Year on Record Spring, March, July, and the annual temperature were all warmest on record in the contiguous U.S. July was the warmest month of any month in the 1,400+ months of the U.S. data record, going back to 1895. The spring temperature departure from average was the largest on record for any season, and March temperatures had the second largest warm departure from average of any month in U.S. history. All-time hottest temperature records were set over approximately 7% of the area of the contiguous U.S., according to a database of 298 major U.S. cities maintained by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Given the very warm December temperatures so far, the final 2012 annual temperature is likely to break the previous warmest year on record (1998) by at least 0.7°F--a colossal margin to break an annual record by. It is likely that 15 states will end up with their warmest year on record in 2012, and 42 states will have a top-ten warmest year.
Figure 2. One of 2012's incredibly hot days: high temperatures on August 1 in Oklahoma from the Oklahoma Mesonet. It was the hottest day in Oklahoma since August 1936, with more than half of the state recording temperatures of 110° or higher. Oklahoma City hit 112°, tied for the city's 3nd highest temperature since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days occurred two days later--on August 3, 2012--and back on August 11, 1936 (113°.)
3) The Great Drought of 2012 The Great U.S. Drought of 2012 may well turn out to be the biggest weather story of 2012, since its full impacts have not yet been realized. The area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought peaked at 61.8% in July--the largest such area since the Dust Bowl drought of December 1939. The heat and dryness resulted in record or near-record evaporation rates, causing major impact on corn, soybean and wheat belts in addition to livestock production. Drought upstream of the Lower Mississippi River caused record and near-record low stream flows along the river in Mississippi and Louisiana, resulting in limited river transportation and commerce. Crop damages alone from the great drought are estimated at $35 billion. As the total scope of losses is realized across all lines of business in coming months, this number will climb significantly.
Figure 3. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.
4) Wildfire Season of 2012 The 2012 U.S. fire season was the 3rd worst in U.S. history, with 9.2 million acres burned--an area larger than the state of Maryland. Since the National Interagency Fire Center began keeping records in 1960, only two years have seen more area burned--2006, when 9.9 million acres burned, and 2007, when 9.3 million acres burned. New Mexico had its largest fire in state history, Colorado its most destructive and 2nd largest in state history, and Oregon had its largest fire since the 1860s. More than 3.6 million acres burned in the U.S. during August--the most on record for any August in recorded history.
Figure 4. Wunderphoto of Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire of 2012, the largest fire in New Mexico history. Wunderphoto submitted by AZMountaineer21.
5) March 2 - 3 Tornado Outbreak A massive tornado outbreak of stunning violence swept through the nation's midsection March 2 - 3, spawning deadly tornadoes that killed 41 people. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 22 and 13 dead, respectively. The scale of the outbreak was exceptional, with 70 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to southern Georgia. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak. An area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings, and tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas. The outbreak spawned two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. Total damage was estimated at $4 billion.
Figure 5. A school bus mangled by the EF-4 Henryville, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Image credit: NWS Louisville, Kentucky.
6) June 29 Multi-State Derecho A violent line of organized severe thunderstorms called a derecho swept across the U.S. from Illinois to Virginia on June 29, damaging houses, toppling trees, bringing down power lines. The storms killed 22 people, and left at least 3.4 million customers without power. The thunderstorms in a derecho (from the Spanish phrase for "straight ahead") create violent winds that blow in a straight line. The derecho was unusually intense due to extreme heat that set all-time records at ten major cities on the south side of the derecho. This heat helped create an unstable atmosphere with plenty of energy to fuel severe thunderstorms. At least 38 thunderstorms in the derecho generated wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, making the derecho one of the most severe derechoes on record. Total damage was estimated at $3.75 billion.
Figure 6. Turbulent clouds gather over Mettawa, Illinois on June 29, 2012, as the historic 2012 derecho begins to organize. Image credit: Wunderphotographer LarrySmit.
7) Hurricane Isaac Hurricane Isaac slowly lumbered ashore near the mouth of the Mississippi River on August 28 as a Category 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds. Isaac's large size and slow motion caused a storm surge more characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane--up to eleven feet--but New Orleans' new $14.5 billion levee upgrade held against Isaac's surge. The surge moved up the Mississippi River in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade. Isaac brought torrential rainfall, with more than twenty inches observed in some areas of New Orleans. Isaac also provided some drought relief to the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Isaac dumped up to 18" of rain in Florida, and disrupted the 2012 Republican Convention in Tampa. Isaac did $2 billion in damage.
Figure 7. Tropical Storm Isaac on August 28, a few hours before it intensified into a hurricane.
8) The Non-Winter of 2011-2012 "Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen. It's 2012, and the new year is ringing in another ridiculously wacky winter for the U.S. In Fargo, North Dakota yesterday, the mercury soared to 55°F, breaking a 1908 record for warmest January day in recorded history. More than 99% of North Dakota had no snow on the ground this morning, and over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year had below-average snow cover." That was the opening of my January 6, 2012 blog post, called "Remarkably dry and warm winter due to record extreme jet stream configuration." The contiguous U.S. saw its 3rd lowest snow cover on record during both winter and spring, and the winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest and 24th driest winter in U.S. history, going back to 1895. A primary cause of this warm and snowless winter was the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index was +2.52 in December 2011, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The positive NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S.
Figure 8. Flowers sprouting on January 1, 2012 in Keene, New Hampshire, thanks to unusually warm December temperatures and lack of snow. Image credit: Wunderphotographer lovne32.
9) April 30 - May 1 Severe Weather Outbreak A severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley April 30 - May 1 caused 38 tornadoes and $4 billion in damage.
10) Late-Spring Freeze: Northeast/Midwest After the record-warm "Summer in March" weather in the Great Lakes and Northeast, an April freeze damaged crops across the region. New York's fruit production was the lowest since 1948, and it was the worst fruit season for Michigan since 1945. Damage in Michigan alone was estimated at $500 million.
Honorable Mentions (text courtesy of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, with damage estimates from AON Benfield):
Severe Weather Outbreak (May): A strong cold front moving through the country on May 25 - 30 spawned 27 tornadoes from Texas to the Northeast. Damage was estimated at $2.5 billion, much of it from hail.
Severe Weather Outbreak (April): A tornado outbreak on April 13 - 14 in the Plains spawned 98 tornadoes and caused at least 6 fatalities. Damage was estimated at $1.75 billion.
Severe Weather Outbreak (June): Several days of severe storms across the Southwest spawned 25 tornadoes from June 6 - 12. Significant hail damage occurred across the Rocky Mountain Front Range, with total damage estimated at $1.75 billion.
Tropical Storm Debby/Wet Florida (June): Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Debby in early June caused damage estimated at $310 million, but Debby's rains helped break a drought in Northern Florida. Florida had its wettest summer on record, partially due to Debby.
Duluth Flooding (June): Training thunderstorms caused record flooding in and around Duluth Minnesota on June 20, with over 8 inches of rainfall observed in 24 hours in parts of the city. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, reported their highest flood heights on record. Damage was estimated at $175 million.
Pacific Northwest Winter Storm (January): A massive winter storm impacted the Pacific Northwest on January 18 - 23. Huge amounts of rain and snow fell, and hurricane-force wind gusts knocked out power to 250,000 customers. Damage was estimated at $100 million.
Hawaiian Hail Storm (March): On March 9, a cut-off low pressure system impacted the Hawaiian Islands, bringing heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. A rare EF-0 tornado hit the towns of Lanikai and Kailua on Oahu, causing minor damage. Another storm dropped a hailstone measuring 4.25 inches long, 2.25 inches tall, and 2 inches wide--the largest hailstone on record for Hawaii. Damage from the storms was estimated at $37 million.
Near-Record Low Great Lakes Levels (by end of 2012): Record warm temperatures throughout 2012 combined with low precipitation and low winter ice cover created high evaporation rates across the Great Lakes. In December, Lakes Michigan and Huron had fallen to within inches of the all-time record low lake levels set back in 1964. Low lake levels have a significant impact on recreational and commercial boating as well as tourism.
Slow Tornado Year (annual): Despite an active March, 2012 saw relatively low tornado numbers compared to recent history.
Mount Evans Tornado (July): A high elevation tornado was observed along the slope of Mount Evans at 11,900 feet--the second highest observed tornado in the U.S.
Alaska Cold Winter/Snow Record (winter): Several Alaskan locations had their coldest January on record. The monthly average temperature at Bettles, AK was -35.6°F. The statewide average January temperature was record cold--14°F below average. Record snow (134.5 inches) fell in Anchorage during the winter season, breaking the previous record set in 1954 - 55.
Alaskan Storms and Flooding (September): Several large extratropical cyclones impacted Alaska during September. Significant flooding occurred along the Sustina River and along its tributaries, causing the worse flooding in 30 years. Over 800 structures and dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed. The storms also brought early snowfall to southern portions of the state.
Death Valley sets world record for highest minimum temperature On Thursday morning, July 12, 2012 the low temperature at Death Valley, California dropped to just 107°F (41.7°C), after hitting a high of 128° (53.3°C) the previous day. Not only did the morning low temperature tie a record for the world's warmest low temperature ever recorded, the average temperature of 117.5°F was the world's warmest 24-hour temperature on record. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the only other place in the world to record a 107°F low temperature was Khasab Airport in the desert nation of Oman on June 27, 2012.
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center will release their top-ten list of U.S. weather events of 2012 on Tuesday, January 8, 2013.
Have a great holiday, everyone! I'll be back on December 26 with a new post.
NT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1058 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012
MDZ501-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-222300- /O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-121222T2300Z/ EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-WESTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN GRANT- WESTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...HIGHTOWN...BAYARD... MOUNT STORM...ELK GARDEN...CIRCLEVILLE 1058 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.
* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES.
* TIMING...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.
* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES...WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES COULD RESULT FROM THE STRONGEST GUSTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22513
Wow, temperatures did not get nearly as cold as I expected or what was forecast last night. The forecast low was 40, we only got down to 46. Even in the northern counties, temps only fell into the mid and upper 30's where freeze warnings were posted and forecast lows were in the upper 20's.
It's down right weird though, because similar cold air masses in many winters past have brought lows from 38 to 40 degrees here and well below freezing to our north. Highs were only in the upper 50's yesterday, I expected way more. How strange. Record lows in my area are about 28 to 30, we are probably not going to be close to seeing any record lows the way this winter is trending.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5420
Quoting Jedkins01: Wow, temperatures did not get nearly as cold as I expected or what was forecast last night. The forecast low was 40, we only got down to 46. Even in the northern counties, temps only fell into the mid and upper 30's where freeze warnings were posted and forecast lows were in the upper 20's.
It's down right weird though, because similar cold air masses in many winters past have brought lows from 38 to 40 degrees here and well below freezing to our north. Highs were only in the upper 50's yesterday, I expected way more. How strange. Record lows in my area are about 28 to 30, we are probably not going to be close to seeing any record lows the way this winter is trending.
yeah we wont see any records broke this time, maybe a bit early yet next month maybe...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22513
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 909 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012
...A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
.AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLDEST LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER AREA...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE MID 20S BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK.
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115 -118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-222100- /O.EXP.KTAE.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-121222T1400Z/ /O.CON.KTAE.FZ.W.0005.121223T0400Z-121223T1400Z/ COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF- INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY- RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT- BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN -SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTF ORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...DOTHAN...K INSEY... COWARTS...WEBB...COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS... HUDSON...BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS... MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...YOUNGST OWN... BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...WEWAHITCHKA...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE... TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE... SWEETWATER...CRAWFORDVILLE...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAY O...CROSS CITY... FREEPORT...SANTA ROSA BEACH...PANAMA CITY...PARKER... PORT SAINT JOE...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SOPCHOPPY... SAINT MARKS...KEATON BEACH...STEINHATCHEE...SUWANNEE... GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON... MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESB URG... SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON...FITZG ERALD...OCILLA... DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMI LLA...PELHAM... MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...NASHVILLE...DONALSONVI LLE... BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE...QUITMAN...VALD OSTA...LAKELAND 909 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012 /809 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2012/
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ SUNDAY...
* TEMPERATURE: LOWS TONIGHT 25 TO 28 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND 27 TO 32 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
* HOURS BELOW FREEZING: 8 TO 10 HOURS TONIGHT IN MOST SPOTS. 6 TO 8 HOURS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
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GODSEY
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22513
Quoting Jedkins01: Wow, temperatures did not get nearly as cold as I expected or what was forecast last night. The forecast low was 40, we only got down to 46. Even in the northern counties, temps only fell into the mid and upper 30's where freeze warnings were posted and forecast lows were in the upper 20's.
It's down right weird though, because similar cold air masses in many winters past have brought lows from 38 to 40 degrees here and well below freezing to our north. Highs were only in the upper 50's yesterday, I expected way more. How strange. Record lows in my area are about 28 to 30, we are probably not going to be close to seeing any record lows the way this winter is trending.
Jedkins....The local TV mets say it will be colder down here in the morning... They are expecting a freeze north of the big lake (Okeechobee)
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3124
Quoting Bluestorm5: GFS dropped any hint of winter storm for me in NC for both Dec. 27th and Jan. 2nd/3rd... so depressing.
Lots, and I do means LOTS of times, the GFS will see a storm way out and then lose it completely in middle ranges only to have it come stormin' back as the event nears. Don't pin your hope on any GFS runs untill the event is inside of 72 hrs or so.
The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4831
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie: I hope that this report on Fukushima is just hype - Fukushima Update
The web site this comes from is run by a fellow with a pretty strong conspiracy theory bent. You can easily find you tube videos of the guy. I wouldn't give much credence to this report.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 4423
Lots, and I do means LOTS of times, the GFS will see a storm way out and then lose it completely in middle ranges only to have it come stormin' back as the event nears. Don't pin your hope on any GFS runs untill the event is inside of 72 hrs or so.
The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away.
Good lesson. I am just starting to learn about winter storms.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 4285
note... Yellow numbers is for high temperatures and blue for night's lows Today is December 23, 2012 for Australia...their current time is 6:25 AM EDT Temperatures are in Fahrenheit
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 38 Comments: 8511
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX: Check back with The Weather Channel and weather.com for updates - we'll certainly be trying to pin down the forecast for Christmas Week with more detail and confidence on the storm that could eventually be named Winter Storm Euclid.
As I suspected yesterday, models are trending west on the post-Christmas storm, looks like lots of rain for the coast with the ski areas up north and west doing very well on snow with this one:
Assuming there's no more flip flopping, which is a lot to assume, the Euro will score another win on this one, as it has been consistent on the western solution (except 0z last night). Here's 12z's run today:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 71 Comments: 6529
Quoting MAweatherboy1: As I suspected yesterday, models are trending west on the post-Christmas storm, looks like lots of rain for the coast with the ski areas up north and west doing very well on snow with this one:
Assuming there's no more flip flopping, which is a lot to assume, the Euro will score another win on this one, as it has been consistent on the western solution (except 0z last night). Here's 12z's run today:
The GFS has colder air. It's all snow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25958
Quoting washingtonian115: I hope your right.This weather just sucks.
My winter forecast is coming true so far. Back in September I said December would be average/slightly above average as a whole. If the remainder of my forecast is correct, January and February should offer some major storms to the East USA. Especially the latter month.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25958
Trending a tad north and a tad deeper with the next system, purrrrfect:
NWS Detroit is increasing its chances of a snow system impacting SE MI.
As for accumulation, the potential is most certainly there for a solid event, but there is still plenty to iron out with respect to local duration/intensity/integrity of moisture transport and deformation forcing over the next 100 hours or so.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 92 Comments: 7015
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER...THAT WHICH EVER LOCATIONS THAT ACTUALLY MANAGE TO GET INTO THAT DEFORMATION ZONE COULD EXPERIENCE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THE WINTER STORM OF 2004...WHICH CRIPPLED THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH HEAVY SNOWS AND DEEP DRIFTS. ONLY TIME WILL TELL. STAY TUNED.
NWS Birmingham:
ON CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS LOOKS TO BE INCREASING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CITIES OF CARROLLTON... TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...AND ANNISTON...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD START AS EARLY AS 2 PM CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WITH THE THREAT SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THE THREAT COULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS CHRISTMAS DAY PLANS COULD BE IMPACTED.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525
Quoting wxchaser97: NWS Detroit is increasing its chances of a snow system impacting SE MI.
As for accumulation, the potential is most certainly there for a solid event, but there is still plenty to iron out with respect to local duration/intensity/integrity of moisture transport and deformation forcing over the next 100 hours or so.
I'm dreaming of a tornadic christmas.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525
looking like im going to get allot of snow from the next nor'easter starting boxing day ! it would be nice last year we only had snow on the ground for about a month.
Member Since: December 21, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
I don't think these have been posted yet, so here are the Mid-December ENSO prediction models. Over 3/4 of the models on the graph indicate neutral conditions through October 2013.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25958
ON CHRISTMAS DAY (SECOND SYSTEM)...THE CONFIDENCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS INCREASING...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. EARLY ON...A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH GOES NEGATIVE TILT WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MS VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EAST TEXAS AROUND SUNRISE CHRISTMAS DAY AND MOVES TO THE NORTHERN AL-MS BORDER REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE DEEPENING ALONG ITS TREK. THIS CAUSES LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK ACROSS OUR REGION AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AS THE WARM SECTOR SURGES ALL THE WAY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE IN PHASE FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT. PRELIMINARY THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MANIFEST AS SHALLOW ISOLATED MESOCYCLONES DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT (HENCE ELEVATED) DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO BE REPLACED BY POSSIBLY DEEPER MESOCYCLONES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND THE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY SURGES NORTHWARD (MAX TEMPERATURES NOW FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS - BUT AM STILL SKEPTICAL A BIT GIVEN THE MORNING PRECIPITATION MAY STABILIZE THE INTERIOR AREAS SLIGHTLY). ON THE OTHER HAND...SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PRESSURE (FORECAST ~998 HPA) AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SCOUR OUT ANY STABLE SURFACE AIR. [D(PROG)/DT] OF THE LAST 4 GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN AMAZINGLY SIMILAR AND THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC RUN PLACES SFC LOW A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND THUS WARMS THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FIELD VIA ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. 22.12 ECMWF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALSO WITH EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET. REMEMBER...MODEL SUITE UNDER-FORECAST THE INSTABILITY FOR LAST THURSDAY`S EVENT AND IT OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE MORNING - SO THIS IS ONE TO WATCH COMING SLIGHTLY LATER IN TIME. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND SWEEP EAST RAPIDLY ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE FORECASTING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE TO CLEAR AREA BY 8 PM CST AT THE LATEST. PLEASE STAY TUNED...THE FINER DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE ON THE TIMING. FOR NOW...ALL AREAS NEED TO STAY TUNED...NOT JUST THOSE ALONG THE COAST.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I don't think these have been posted yet, so here are the Mid-December ENSO prediction models. Over 3/4 of the models on the graph indicate neutral conditions through October 2013.
So what is the longest span we have went without seeing an EL Nino event?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5455
Widespread severe thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast United States on Christmas Day and 12/26 as a strong area of low pressure, and associated warm front, crosses Arkansas into Kentucky, up through Pennsylvania, and eventually into Maine. South of the warm front, which includes the areas highlighted below, storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts (the main scene type will probably be a squall line), isolated and brief tornadoes, flash flooding, and small hail. A typical severe weather event for December, nothing major.
This is my image, not one of NOAA's.
The main threats are colored by how likely the residents in my risk area are to see that particular type of weather. There is a relatively low risk of tornadoes and hail, although it can't be ruled out, while there is a medium risk of damaging winds, and a high risk of flooding.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25958
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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What about the M7.3 by Kamaishi on December 7? Wouldn't that have been enough?
Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Ernesto (AL052012)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1058 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012
MDZ501-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-222300-
/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-121222T2300Z/
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-WESTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...HIGHTOWN...BAYARD...
MOUNT STORM...ELK GARDEN...CIRCLEVILLE
1058 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.
* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES.
* TIMING...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.
* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES...WITH VISIBILITIES
OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES COULD RESULT FROM THE STRONGEST GUSTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...
HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY
WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
&&
$$
It's down right weird though, because similar cold air masses in many winters past have brought lows from 38 to 40 degrees here and well below freezing to our north. Highs were only in the upper 50's yesterday, I expected way more. How strange. Record lows in my area are about 28 to 30, we are probably not going to be close to seeing any record lows the way this winter is trending.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
909 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012
...A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
.AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT...CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. ANOTHER
LIGHT FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLDEST LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE
RIVER AREA...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE MID 20S BRIEFLY
AROUND DAYBREAK.
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115 -118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-222100-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-121222T1400Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FZ.W.0005.121223T0400Z-121223T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT- BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN -SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTF ORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...DOTHAN...K INSEY...
COWARTS...WEBB...COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...
HUDSON...BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...
MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...YOUNGST OWN...
BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...WEWAHITCHKA...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...
SWEETWATER...CRAWFORDVILLE...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAY O...CROSS CITY...
FREEPORT...SANTA ROSA BEACH...PANAMA CITY...PARKER...
PORT SAINT JOE...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SOPCHOPPY...
SAINT MARKS...KEATON BEACH...STEINHATCHEE...SUWANNEE...
GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...
MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESB URG...
SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON...FITZG ERALD...OCILLA...
DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMI LLA...PELHAM...
MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...NASHVILLE...DONALSONVI LLE...
BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE...QUITMAN...VALD OSTA...LAKELAND
909 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012 /809 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2012/
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/
THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ SUNDAY...
* TEMPERATURE: LOWS TONIGHT 25 TO 28 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR
FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND 27 TO 32 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
* HOURS BELOW FREEZING: 8 TO 10 HOURS TONIGHT IN MOST SPOTS. 6
TO 8 HOURS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
&&
$$
GODSEY
Lots, and I do means LOTS of times, the GFS will see a storm way out and then lose it completely in middle ranges only to have it come stormin' back as the event nears. Don't pin your hope on any GFS runs untill the event is inside of 72 hrs or so.
The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away.
The web site this comes from is run by a fellow with a pretty strong conspiracy theory bent. You can easily find you tube videos of the guy. I wouldn't give much credence to this report.
Yes ,The GFS Model Promises everything and seldom delivers...
___________________________
Here is my present for Aussie...
click to make larger
note...
Yellow numbers is for high temperatures and blue for night's lows
Today is December 23, 2012 for Australia...their current time is 6:25 AM EDT
Temperatures are in Fahrenheit
just came across this:
Weather as a Force Multiplier:
Owning the Weather in 2025
Link
A pox on winter storm namers.
Story is two months old. Not to say that it isn't legit, but the story is two months old nonetheless.
Looks like a good place to carry on the discussion. Knock yourself out.
Edit: They do have a really good explanation of what contrails are and why they last so long. I recommend it.
Assuming there's no more flip flopping, which is a lot to assume, the Euro will score another win on this one, as it has been consistent on the western solution (except 0z last night). Here's 12z's run today:
The GFS has colder air. It's all snow.
I am just quoting the article... Apparently (and thankfully) it wasn't.
Doesn't mean that the 'danger'is over though. Again, could be a lot of hype -I just don't know.
It has slowly been giving me some snow on the 26th-27th.
My winter forecast is coming true so far. Back in September I said December would be average/slightly above average as a whole. If the remainder of my forecast is correct, January and February should offer some major storms to the East USA. Especially the latter month.
Trending a tad north and a tad deeper with the next system, purrrrfect:
NWS Detroit is increasing its chances of a snow system impacting SE MI.
As for accumulation, the potential is most certainly there for a solid event, but there
is still plenty to iron out with respect to local duration/intensity/integrity of moisture transport
and deformation forcing over the next 100 hours or so.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER...THAT WHICH EVER LOCATIONS
THAT ACTUALLY MANAGE TO GET INTO THAT DEFORMATION ZONE COULD
EXPERIENCE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THE WINTER STORM OF 2004...WHICH
CRIPPLED THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH HEAVY SNOWS AND DEEP DRIFTS.
ONLY TIME WILL TELL. STAY TUNED.
NWS Birmingham:
ON CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS LOOKS TO BE INCREASING
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CITIES OF CARROLLTON...
TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...AND ANNISTON...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER COULD START AS EARLY AS 2 PM CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST WITH THE THREAT SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THE THREAT
COULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST.
ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS CHRISTMAS DAY PLANS COULD BE IMPACTED.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
I'm dreaming of a tornadic christmas.
I'm dreamin' of a white Christmas, just like the ones I used to know.
A tornadic Christmas would be wayyy too crazy for me up here.
ON CHRISTMAS DAY (SECOND SYSTEM)...THE CONFIDENCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
EVENT IS INCREASING...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. EARLY ON...A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH GOES NEGATIVE TILT WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MS VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EAST
TEXAS AROUND SUNRISE CHRISTMAS DAY AND MOVES TO THE NORTHERN AL-MS
BORDER REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE DEEPENING ALONG ITS TREK. THIS
CAUSES LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK ACROSS OUR REGION AND SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AS THE WARM SECTOR SURGES ALL
THE WAY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY ARE IN PHASE FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT. PRELIMINARY
THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MANIFEST AS SHALLOW ISOLATED
MESOCYCLONES DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
(HENCE ELEVATED) DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO BE REPLACED BY POSSIBLY
DEEPER MESOCYCLONES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND THE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY SURGES NORTHWARD (MAX
TEMPERATURES NOW FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS - BUT
AM STILL SKEPTICAL A BIT GIVEN THE MORNING PRECIPITATION MAY
STABILIZE THE INTERIOR AREAS SLIGHTLY). ON THE OTHER HAND...SYNOPTIC
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE (FORECAST ~998 HPA) AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SCOUR OUT ANY STABLE SURFACE AIR. [D(PROG)/DT]
OF THE LAST 4 GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN AMAZINGLY SIMILAR AND THIS MORNING`S
12 UTC RUN PLACES SFC LOW A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND THUS WARMS THE LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS FIELD VIA ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. 22.12 ECMWF IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALSO WITH EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET. REMEMBER...MODEL
SUITE UNDER-FORECAST THE INSTABILITY FOR LAST THURSDAY`S EVENT AND IT
OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE MORNING - SO THIS IS ONE TO WATCH COMING
SLIGHTLY LATER IN TIME. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND SWEEP EAST RAPIDLY ENDING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WE ARE FORECASTING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE TO
CLEAR AREA BY 8 PM CST AT THE LATEST. PLEASE STAY TUNED...THE FINER
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE ON THE TIMING. FOR NOW...ALL AREAS NEED TO
STAY TUNED...NOT JUST THOSE ALONG THE COAST.
Mobile tornado and small debris signature:
I think a tornadic christmas would be fun.
Wide view water vepor loop -- pineapple express along subtropical jet. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/flash-wv.ht ml
For you it would be, but up here that wouldn't be right. To me it isn't Christmas unless there is snow.
Only seen snow on christmas once....and it was the first one in a long time for GA.
Also the most majore christmas snow event.
This is my image, not one of NOAA's.
The main threats are colored by how likely the residents in my risk area are to see that particular type of weather. There is a relatively low risk of tornadoes and hail, although it can't be ruled out, while there is a medium risk of damaging winds, and a high risk of flooding.
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