Winter Storm Draco ends record snowless streaks across Midwest
Winter Storm Draco is powering up over the Upper Midwest, and is poised to bring a resounding end to the record-length snowless streaks a number of U.S. cities have notched this year. Blizzard warnings are posted over portions of Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, and snowfall amounts of up to a foot are expected in some of the affected regions. While the heavy snow will create dangerous travel conditions, the .5" - 1.5" of melted water equivalent from the the storm will provide welcome moisture for drought-parched areas of the Midwest. Though much of the moisture will stay locked up as snow for the rest of the year, runoff from the storm may help keep Lake Michigan and Huron from setting an all-time record low for the month of December, and may also keep the Mississippi River at St. Louis above the -5' stage though the end of December. If the river falls below -5', barge traffic on the Mississippi may be forced to halt, costing billions of dollars. The Army Corps of Engineers is blasting away rocks on the river bottom south of St. Louis and releasing water from Carlyle Lake in Southern Illinois this week, in order to keep the Mississippi River high enough to allow barge traffic to negotiate the near-record low water levels. Several gauges on the Mississippi have set all-time record lows this year: the New Madrid, Missouri gauge on August 30, 2012 and the Tiptonville, Tennessee gauge on September 2. Records at the Tiptonville gauge go back to at least 1879.
Figure 1. Predicted precipitation totals fopr the 3-day period ending on December 22. Approximately 0.5 - 1.5" of melted water equivalent from Winter Storm Draco is expected over much of the drought-stricken Midwest. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Figure 2. Average water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are near their lowest December levels ever recorded, preliminary data from NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory indicate.
Record snowless streaks coming to end because of Winter Storm Draco
The U.S. has had its warmest and 12th driest year on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It should be no surprise, then, that a number of major cities have set records for their longest period without snow. Most of these streaks have come to and end (or will do so in the next day or two) because of Winter Storm Draco:
MIlwaukee, Wisconsin's record streak without measurable snow ended December 18 with 0.5" of snow; the streak was 288 consecutive days, bookended by measurable snowfall on March 5 and Dec. 18. Milwaukee is likely to get an additional 4 - 6" of snow from Draco.
Omaha, Nebraska's record streak without measurable snow ended December 16 with 0.6" of snow; the streak was 295 consecutive days, bookended by measurable snowfall on Feb. 24 and Dec. 16. Omaha is likely to get 6 - 9" of total snow before the current storm winds down. Record latest first snow of the season: December 26, 1888.
Chicago, Illinois' new record snowless streak continues at 289 consecutive days as of Tuesday. The last measurable snow there was March 4. Previous record: 280 consecutive days between the measurable snowfalls of March 1, 1994 and December 5, 1994. Chicago has also broken its record for latest snowfall in the season, previously set on December 16, 1965. These streaks will likely end on Thursday, when 1 - 4" of snow are expected.
Rockford, Illinois' new record snowless streak continues at 289 consecutive days as of Tuesday, but this streak will likely end on Thursday, when 3 - 6" of snow are expected. The last measurable snow in Rockford was March 4. Previous record: 286 consecutive days between the measurable snowfalls of March 3, 1922 and December 13, 1922. Record latest first snow of the season: January 7, 1940.
Lincoln, Nebraska's new record snowless streak continues at 308 consecutive days as of Tuesday. This streak will likely end Wednesday or Thursday, as 6 -8" of snow are expected. The last measurable snow there was Feb. 13. Previous record: 295 consecutive days between the measurable snowfalls of Feb. 6 and Nov. 28, 2004. Record latest first snow of the season: December 31, 2006.
Syracuse, NY is often the snowiest major city in the contiguous U.S. This year, Syracuse has not yet had a 1" snowfall--the second latest such streak. The 3.0" that has fallen is over 28" below what Syracuse usually gets by this time of the season. The latest in the season that the first 1" snow has come to Syracuse occurred on December 22, 1998 (the previous warmest year on record in the U.S.) With the forecast calling for lake effect snows on the 22nd, Syracuse may just miss setting its mark for latest 1" snowfall of the season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Down to 30, still only sticking on grass.
You sound happy. Did your new toupee finally arrive?
No. Someone told me you were banned. Oh well...
What is it called?
Makes draco a pipsqueek
They've also released new one and three month outlooks today, which you can find here
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012
...ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...
NJZ006-NYZ072-074-075-080-178-179-210445-
/O.NEW.KOKX.CF.S.0030.121221T0600Z-121221T0900Z/
HUDSON-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
334 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012
* LOCATIONS...AREAS HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHORES AROUND NEW YORK HARBOR AND
SOUTHWEST LONG ISLAND.
* TIDAL DEPARTURES...1 TO 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE.
* TIMING...BETWEEN 1 AND 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...STRONG...PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN
INCREASING THE TIDES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD INCREASE THE FLOODING THREAT OVER AREAS RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. MINOR INUNDATION OF WATER WILL OCCUR IN THE
MOST VULNERABLE AREAS DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
$$
AREA. AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION NEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH AND THIN LEAVING MAINLY THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TITUSVILLE TO
KISSIMMEE NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH LOCAL INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED...APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR WILL PROMPT A CONCERN FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH WITH A FEW CELLS. A SEVERE STORM IS
UNLIKELY...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE COUNTY JUST AFTER SUNSET
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD APPROACH
DAYTONA BEACH LATER THIS EVENING...ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...REDUCING TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PASSES THROUGH
VERO BEACH...FORT PIERCE...AND STUART OVERNIGHT AND BEFORE
SUNRISE.
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNINGS COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ALLOWING RH VALUES
TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS. STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
EASING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.
A SLOW WARMUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW LEADS TO MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THEY ARE SOLIDIFYING AROUND A SOLUTION THAT
WILL PRODUCE A WET CHRISTMAS DAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHICH COULD PRODUCE JUST A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO SEE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SORT OF ACCUMULATION
AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 38
lol the CPC didn't forecast Florida too well, most of the next 10 days will well below average except Christmas eve and Christmas :)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
448 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012
FLC065-079-202215-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0418.000000T0000Z-121220T2215Z/
MADISON FL-JEFFERSON FL-
448 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EST
FOR CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND WEST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES...
AT 444 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MONTICELLO TO CODY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CAPPS...AUCILLA...LAMONT...HAMBURG AND GREENVILLE
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
@NWS_Central_US
56 mph wind gust measured at Lambert-St Louis International Airport
54 mph wind gust measured at Davenport Airport
59 mph wind gust measured at Cedar Rapids Municipal Airport
Yeah, It's real windy in the Midwest
FLC123-202245-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0067.121220T2222Z-121220T2245Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
522 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
* UNTIL 545 PM EST
* AT 521 PM EST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 21 MILES WEST OF PERRY...OR 8 MILES SOUTH
OF SCANLON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HAMPTON SPRINGS...SECOTAN...PERRY-FOLEY AIRPORT...BUCELL JUNCTION
AND BOYD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
MOVE TO A HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
OUTSIDE WALLS.
&&
LAT...LON 2998 8384 3000 8386 3002 8393 3005 8396
3006 8397 3028 8364 3006 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 244DEG 40KT 3003 8391
$$
Would be nice on maps like that to give a link so everyone could actually see it ...
Viewing: 801 - 851
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