Winter Storm Draco ends record snowless streaks across Midwest
Winter Storm Draco is powering up over the Upper Midwest, and is poised to bring a resounding end to the record-length snowless streaks a number of U.S. cities have notched this year. Blizzard warnings are posted over portions of Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, and snowfall amounts of up to a foot are expected in some of the affected regions. While the heavy snow will create dangerous travel conditions, the .5" - 1.5" of melted water equivalent from the the storm will provide welcome moisture for drought-parched areas of the Midwest. Though much of the moisture will stay locked up as snow for the rest of the year, runoff from the storm may help keep Lake Michigan and Huron from setting an all-time record low for the month of December, and may also keep the Mississippi River at St. Louis above the -5' stage though the end of December. If the river falls below -5', barge traffic on the Mississippi may be forced to halt, costing billions of dollars. The Army Corps of Engineers is blasting away rocks on the river bottom south of St. Louis and releasing water from Carlyle Lake in Southern Illinois this week, in order to keep the Mississippi River high enough to allow barge traffic to negotiate the near-record low water levels. Several gauges on the Mississippi have set all-time record lows this year: the New Madrid, Missouri gauge on August 30, 2012 and the Tiptonville, Tennessee gauge on September 2. Records at the Tiptonville gauge go back to at least 1879.
Figure 1. Predicted precipitation totals fopr the 3-day period ending on December 22. Approximately 0.5 - 1.5" of melted water equivalent from Winter Storm Draco is expected over much of the drought-stricken Midwest. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Figure 2. Average water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are near their lowest December levels ever recorded, preliminary data from NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory indicate.
Record snowless streaks coming to end because of Winter Storm Draco
The U.S. has had its warmest and 12th driest year on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It should be no surprise, then, that a number of major cities have set records for their longest period without snow. Most of these streaks have come to and end (or will do so in the next day or two) because of Winter Storm Draco:
MIlwaukee, Wisconsin's record streak without measurable snow ended December 18 with 0.5" of snow; the streak was 288 consecutive days, bookended by measurable snowfall on March 5 and Dec. 18. Milwaukee is likely to get an additional 4 - 6" of snow from Draco.
Omaha, Nebraska's record streak without measurable snow ended December 16 with 0.6" of snow; the streak was 295 consecutive days, bookended by measurable snowfall on Feb. 24 and Dec. 16. Omaha is likely to get 6 - 9" of total snow before the current storm winds down. Record latest first snow of the season: December 26, 1888.
Chicago, Illinois' new record snowless streak continues at 289 consecutive days as of Tuesday. The last measurable snow there was March 4. Previous record: 280 consecutive days between the measurable snowfalls of March 1, 1994 and December 5, 1994. Chicago has also broken its record for latest snowfall in the season, previously set on December 16, 1965. These streaks will likely end on Thursday, when 1 - 4" of snow are expected.
Rockford, Illinois' new record snowless streak continues at 289 consecutive days as of Tuesday, but this streak will likely end on Thursday, when 3 - 6" of snow are expected. The last measurable snow in Rockford was March 4. Previous record: 286 consecutive days between the measurable snowfalls of March 3, 1922 and December 13, 1922. Record latest first snow of the season: January 7, 1940.
Lincoln, Nebraska's new record snowless streak continues at 308 consecutive days as of Tuesday. This streak will likely end Wednesday or Thursday, as 6 -8" of snow are expected. The last measurable snow there was Feb. 13. Previous record: 295 consecutive days between the measurable snowfalls of Feb. 6 and Nov. 28, 2004. Record latest first snow of the season: December 31, 2006.
Syracuse, NY is often the snowiest major city in the contiguous U.S. This year, Syracuse has not yet had a 1" snowfall--the second latest such streak. The 3.0" that has fallen is over 28" below what Syracuse usually gets by this time of the season. The latest in the season that the first 1" snow has come to Syracuse occurred on December 22, 1998 (the previous warmest year on record in the U.S.) With the forecast calling for lake effect snows on the 22nd, Syracuse may just miss setting its mark for latest 1" snowfall of the season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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This is pretty bizarre. What will the present exchange owners do with all that money? Sounds like China is collecting on a debt. Next, we sell Manhattan, then LA.
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-210900 -
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0018.121221T1700Z-121221T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
357 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
* AFFECTED AREA...LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...HERNANDO...PASCO.. .
PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...HARDEE ...
HIGHLANDS...SARASOTA...DESOTO...CHARLOTTE...LEE.
* WIND...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
* HUMIDITY...25 TO 30 PERCENT
* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.
I wonder with humidity this low if the atmosphere will moisten up to bring a line of storms through or if we will even see any rain at all.
I admit I may be a little biased.
Que sera sera.
Gulf storms are always more interesting, but if you are in Florida what do you expect to get?
Im just hoping for another powdery snow event in N Ga, because 99% of the snow i get is wet muddy mush that is gone in 24 hours.
But whenever it is snowing I cant stop watching it from the time it starts to when it finishes, not wanting to miss a single burst of heavy snow.....and then its so sad then the snow event finishes.
Um who owns LA/Manhattan to sell it?
These are company deals, and not government deals.
And no we arent going to sell anything.
For somebody who always denies being a conspiracy theorist, you come up with some of the wierdest conspiracies.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012
MDZ007-011-014-016>018-VAZ057-202330-
/O.NEW.KLWX.CF.Y.0063.121220T2300Z-121221T1100Z/
HARFORD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
KING GEORGE-
1023 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY.
* TIDAL ANOMALY...ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* EXPECTED IMPACTS...MINOR SHORELINE INUNDATION ALONG SENSITIVE
AREAS.
HERE ARE THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...
ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...
HAVRE DE GRACE...3:55 AM...
BOWLEY BAR...1:23 AM...
FORT MCHENRY BALTIMORE...12:32 AM...
ANNAPOLIS U.S. NAVAL ACADEMY...11:10 PM...
CHESAPEAKE BEACH...9:45 PM...
SOLOMONS ISLAND...8:11 PM...
POINT LOOKOUT...7:04 PM...
NOW ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER...
GOOSE BAY...10:07 PM...
COLTONS POINT...8:57 PM...
PINEY POINT...8:21 PM...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.
I have never seen this combination in Florida...freeze watch next t a tornado watch....
I wonder what conditions would have to be in play for a significant blizzard to occur in Florida? I'd imagine one way would be two or three extremely strong cold fronts pushing through right behind each other.
The first one is your typical early-January cold-front in an El Nino year, dropping temperatures across Central and North Florida for lows into the mid to upper-20s. An equally as strong one though comes in a day after that one, dropping temperatures into the low-20s or upper 10s. The third and final one, a day or so after that one, while temperatures aren't even crossing 32 degrees across Florida for highs, comes in and the heavy rain transforms into snow across most of the state.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1014 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0955 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 S BRANTLEY 31.50N 86.26W
12/20/2012 CRENSHAW AL EMERGENCY MNGR
Another issue is how quickly temperatures recover in Florida, I've never lived in a state before that can have a low of 29 degrees, and a high of 72 degrees, and the next day a high of 80 degrees.
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHAMBERS...SOUTHERN
TALLAPOOSA...NORTHERN PIKE...MONTGOMERY...MACON...LEE...EASTERN
ELMORE...NORTHWESTERN BARBOUR AND BULLOCK COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CST...
AT 1110 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DADEVILLE TO TALLASSEE TO
PIKE ROAD TO LAPINE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.
LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
TALLASSEE...
MEADVILLE...
MILSTEAD...
CAMP HILL...
NOTASULGA...
TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.
But as usual it doesnt come to GA.
The mets are looking towards the next system now, but the GFS scaling that back too, and no real snow chance through early january.
January - February is our best shot for snow, and the earliest major severe weather event i remember after the December 22nd tornadoes last year was the January 23rd tornado event withe the EF-3 that hit center point and the MOD risk of severe weather in arkansas. That was acutally interesting, there was a large EF-2 in arkansas.
So im just looking for our chances on snow or severe weather in January. Its been a quiet 6 months in GA
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST
* AT 1131 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEWTON...OR NEAR FIVE POINTS...
AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PINCKARD...MIDLAND CITY AND HEADLAND
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Institutional ownership list for IntercontinentalExchange
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1145 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST
* AT 1142 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 19 MILES WEST OF VERNON TO 41 MILES SOUTH OF SANTA ROSA
BEACH...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
VERNON BY 1230 PM CST...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.
&&
img src="">
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN HENRY AND NORTH CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTIES...
AT 1154 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KINSEY...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HEADLAND...WEBB...HEADLAND MUNICIPAL A/P...PEARCE...PLEASANT
PLAINS...TUMBLETON...SIGMA AND GRANDBERRY CROSSROADS
North of Dothan, AL
awesome!!!!!!!!!!!
Cantore was not around...lol
During the NorEaster after Sandy NWS sent out a bulleting explicitly saying they are not naming non tropical systems and for its affiliates to not use names in their products.
they still are....where have you been at?
I mean, look at the huge size of the storm...terrible spelling I did there
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN HENRY AND NORTH CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTIES...
AT 1154 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KINSEY...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HEADLAND...WEBB...HEADLAND MUNICIPAL A/P...PEARCE...PLEASANT
PLAINS...TUMBLETON...SIGMA AND GRANDBERRY CROSSROADS
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
6:07 PM GMT on December 20, 2012
Looks like there's already been some thundersnow in Wisconsin (07Z in Madison). Snowing to beat the band!!!!!
There was thundersnow at Madison, WI, at 07Z. Courtesy of the University of Wisconsin.
I suspect it was associated with frontogenesis at 850 mb (07Z Rapid Refresh model analysis...purple contours). Frontogenesis is the increase in the temperature gradient (at 850 mb in this case). There is a direct circulation of air and upward motion associated with frontogenesis.
I have explained my objections to TWC naming storms , I will summarize ..
I have no objection to storms being named as long as its unilateral . Its a farce at the moment the NWS (who everyone really gets their warnings from) Accuweather and Fox are not naming them this leads to confusion .
People argue hurricanes and Tropical storms are named who names them ? The National Hurricane Centre and all the private weather companies take their lead on the name and refer to the storm as such .
If they used the Berlin Model were the money generated goes back to fund the education of young Meotrologists and metrological research . It would be to use a young phrase Cool (but I aint terrible young that I will accept, being patronized by people who think they have a right to talk down to me)
Any money that is being made by this company is going back into stockholders pockets rather to increase research into weather .unlike the European model....
Also It had been claimed that TWC were the first company to do so but a small weather company already does so its not an original idea and does come off as a gimmick and marketing stragery.
I actually find it ironic that people who regard themselves as left wing are in support of this Idea (TWC naming storms)..but maybe thats because I keep my political opinions to myself .
"A narrow line of showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany the front around midnight," Clay said. "Don’t expect any severe thunderstorms although there might be some gusty winds with the front and showers."
High temperatures during the day Friday will be in the low 60s.
Temperatures will dip into the low 40s across the area and the Freeze Watch will be in place for Saturday morning for Pasco, Hernando and Citrus counties. Citrus and Hernando counties are forecast to drop into the upper 20s while Pasco should drop into the lower 30s.
Sunday morning should be just as chilly with lows in the 20s in the area's northern counties to 40s around the Bay area. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will only be in the 60s.
Conditions will return to the mid 70s by the start of next week. The Bay area will see a mild and dry Christmas with daytime temperatures in the mid 70s.
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