November 2012: Earth's 333rd consecutive warmer-than-average month

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on December 18, 2012

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November 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest November on record, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. NASA rated November 2012 the 2nd warmest November on record. Global temperature records begin in 1880. November 2012 global land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were also the 6th warmest on record. Including this November, the 10 warmest Novembers have occurred in the past 12 years, and November 2012 was the 333rd consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average November global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985--during the Reagan administration, when the cost of a first-class stamp was 20 cents. Global satellite-measured temperatures in November 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 11th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The September - October - November season of 2012 (fall in the Northern Hemisphere, spring in the Southern Hemisphere) was the globe's second warmest such period on record, behind 2005. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during November 2012 was the fifth largest on record for the month, and marked the fourth consecutive November with above-average snow cover for the hemisphere. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of November 2012 in his November 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2012, the 5th warmest November for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. The most unusual warmth was observed across parts of far eastern Russia, where temperatures were at least 5°C (9°F) above average for the month. Much warmer-than-average November temperatures, and even record warmth in several regions, were observed across the western United States, Mexico, Central and South America, eastern Russia, southeastern and western Asia, Australia, and most of Africa and Europe. Due to the near universal warmth in the Southern Hemisphere (with the exception of New Zealand), that region of the world observed its warmest November on record. In the Northern Hemisphere, cooler-than-average temperatures occurred across parts of central Asia, part of the eastern United States, and much of Alaska and western Canada. Nonetheless, the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature ranked as the eighth warmest on record for November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Neutral El Niño conditions in the Pacific
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C below average as of December 17. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through winter and into early spring. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in November 2012 was the third lowest since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to 3rd lowest November extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during November reached its third lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only the November sea ice extents in 2006 and 2010 were smaller. This was the 19th consecutive November and 138th consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. I discussed this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my November 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

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Jeff Masters

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Quoting yoboi:



who hits fri first?


Defn: The International Date Line (IDL) is an imaginary line on the surface of the Earth, that runs from the north to the south pole and demarcates one calendar day from the next.

Keeper: you posted that the date was 11 11 gmt dec 21 2012, I have also read that it is 11:12 gmt on 12.21.12. An extra minute to drink my nuclear war prep which is a pint of whiskey I have stored for 30+years now. Hmm, how to get that into the workplace...
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Looks like a high fire danger for parts of Texas tomorrow:



Unfortunately, this appears to be just about the only place in the country, besides east Alaska, that doesn't have above normal precip on the way:

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guys since when is a 3 to 6 inch snow ..a major winter storm?....when i was growing up..a major snow event was 12 to 24 inches...yes my friends..in the last 50 years o rso..the weather has indeed changed..snowfall is less, way less than when I was a kid..perhaps this global warming thing is real and the earth..long term..IS getting not so much warmer..but indeed drier,at least in winter time huh........
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Chicago area.............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...MAINLY NORTH OF A
ROCKFORD TO HIGHLAND PARK LINE. SOME MINOR SLUSHY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.


A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS...TO A
FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE RAPIDLY OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF CHICAGO. IN ADDITION... ANY SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS
COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH
COULD CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
255 PM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

.A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE SNOWFALL ITSELF WILL NOT
LAST LONG...GENERALLY OCCURRING FOR 6 TO 9 HOURS WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 45 MPH TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 3
INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEARLY 6 INCHES ALONG THE
NEBRASKA BORDER.

KSZ011-012-022>024-191200-
/O.UPG.KTOP.WS.A.0002.121219T1800Z-121220T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KTOP.WS.W.0002.121220T0000Z-121220T1200Z/
NEMAHA-BROWN-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HIAWATHA...MANHATTAN
255 PM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS IN THE CONCORDIA AND
REPUBLIC AREAS AFTER 3 PM...SPREADING INTO THE MANHATTAN...
SENECA...AND HIAWATHA AREAS AFTER 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM WEDNESDAY AND 4 AM THURSDAY WITH
THE SNOW COMING TO AN END BY 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN EXTREME NORTHERN KANSAS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE
TO CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. TRAVEL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS.
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...A LARGE WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS SOMETIME AROUND CHRISTMAS NIGHT...

A RAPIDLY EVOLVING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES
EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE. THE STORM THEN APPEARS IT
WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND TEXAS LATE
CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
STORM SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE WHITE OUT OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY
AFTER CHRISTMAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. BE
PREPARED TO HAVE YOUR TRAVEL ARRANGEMENTS CANCELLED OR CHANGED
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY. MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS MORE ACCURATE INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE LATER THIS WEEK.

$$
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Quoting yoboi:



can someone post a countdown clock on here??


Sorry, yoboi, but the countdown will not begin until I win the Lotto. Then you can start the 24 hour clock from that point. ... That is just the way my luck goes. .... sigh
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4915
(deleted)
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Here is the current time in Samoa and American Samoa notice for one hour it will be Wednesday in one nation and Friday in the other and they are closer than 100 miles apart.
Link
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It seems there are enough shoulder chips in this group to make a bonfire bigger than Burning Man -- and that would surely add to AGW! ;-)
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Quoting goosegirl1:


Curiously, the last chart I posted and the chart you linked seem to be very similar :) I think we just agreed!
yea I wasn't taking sides just pointing out the truth on both sides
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Quoting nymore:
Watch the trend line when we add one to your third Link
Source NOAA
And with that I am done with this CC talk.


Curiously, the last chart I posted and the chart you linked seem to be very similar :) I think we just agreed!
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Quoting yoboi:



who hits fri first?


actually to be correctthe mayan cal ends at 11 11 gmt dec 21 2012 or 6 11 am as the mornig sunrise occurs on eastern seaboard of NA at which time the sun will line up with the centre of the milky way galaxy or the great rift as some called thus ending this current time and the start of the next 27 thousand year cycle
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58948
Quoting yoboi:



who hits fri first?



Link
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Quoting yoboi:



who hits fri first?


Look just to the west of The International Date Line. Those closet to the date line will be the first to experience 12/21/12. West Samoa will be one of them.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4915
Quoting yoboi:



who hits fri first?
Samoa and Kiribati.
It will be Fri in Samoa and Wednesday in American Samoa. they are less than 100 miles apart
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Quoting yoboi:



who hits fri first?


I don't want to rush it....
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Quoting yoboi:


could be thur for usa since other parts of the globe hit fri before we do...
Some places on the globe will hit Friday before we in parts of the USA hit Thursday it will still be Wednesday
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2285
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

According to Mayans the Mayans, the end of the world is this Friday...not Saturday


What! I wish I could have that extra day...Darn...Oh well. PARTY TIME!
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Quoting WunderGirl12:


Man! Saturday looks like its gonna be hot hot hot! I think I'll go to the moon for the weekend...Enjoy!


the 21st is Friday...
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Quoting WunderGirl12:


Yep! End of the world for us. (According to the Mayans)

According to Mayans, the end of the world is this Friday...not Saturday
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


what 666???


Yep! End of the world for us. (According to the Mayans)
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Quoting WunderGirl12:


Man! Saturday looks like its gonna be hot hot hot! I think I'll go to the moon for the weekend...Enjoy!


what 666???
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Man! Saturday looks like its gonna be hot hot hot! I think I'll go to the moon for the weekend...Enjoy!
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Had season tix when there in 79-80, 80-81. Daughter took me to Gonzaga game for my bday last year, before things fell apart. Going to be tough living on 3ptrs, but never know. Just hoping we win Sat, might need to do some Xmas shopping in StL that day (at least tell the wife that anyway)

Clouds must have cleared over Spfld - they jumped to 50 in about 30 min. See any precip forecast for tomorrow?
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Quoting stormchaser43:
in my opinion arguing bickering about climate temperatures aint gonna chang e anyones mind...so why even argue no one will think difernent,,just dont get it......


You are correct that those that deny the AGW based on anything other than the science will never "get it". Those that are skeptical of what the science tells us will be more likely to accept the science once more detail has been shown. The "detail" may only be exposing a truth that they were previously unaware of.

I am still willing to abandon the AGWT as valid science once I am shown that the AGWT violates The Laws of Physics or The Laws of Thermodynamics or The Laws of Chemistry. The AGWT was based on these Laws of Science. When it shown that the AGWT violates any of these Laws then I will abandon the AGWT as science. Until then, I will accept the AGWT based on the science that it is built upon.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4915
Quoting goosegirl1:
OK, here's a few websites for your entertainment:

Link

Link


Link


Watch the trend line when we add one to your third Link
Source NOAA
And with that I am done with this CC talk.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2285
Quoting dabirds:
Probably will ILwthr, StL has snow chance Thurs on back side too, think they're at 8th longest snowless stretch. Also, on that 216 hr, they've added Wed to Thurs as snow chance in the 10 day, only Thurs this a.m. Too bad not a day earlier, but will take it.

Got a little rain Sat and Mon, maybe this moisture can help keep this Mississippi open - they're getting ready to blast the granite at Thebes, then Grand Tower. Way back in the Saluki days went to an overlook on the bluffs around GT, very cool!

Think the Illini are for real? Loved Butler beating IU (& NC)


I have season tickets, have since 89'. This team is different and we have two greats wins, but the BIG TEN is just nasty this year, so we will find out just how good we are. Personally I think we are a bit over-rated, but I think we are a legit 5-6 seed this year barring a major injury. We play great pressure defense.

I loved Butler beating IU, and did so without 3 starters in OT.

We need some big snows in the Upper Plains this year help that drought and get the Muddy Mississippi back to a flow'n!
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Quoting goosegirl1:


However, my point was that our two links did not show the same type of data and had very little to do with each other. To make the point you are trying to prove, you would have to provide a chart showing the same temp data for the same area for the same time period. I am actually trying to help you, really.
In your link tamino goes into temps in the arctic rising sharply, I just posted a new study that disputes that it is AGWT that is only to blame.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2285
225. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY TWO (04F)
6:00 AM FST December 19 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Evan (975 hPa) located at 22.2S 178.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery.

Storm Force Winds
====================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
160 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection lies just south of partially exposed low level circulation center. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south and restricted elsewhere. EVAN lies in a high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 25C. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern giving DT=3.5, MET=3.5, PT=4.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT. CI held 0.5 higher than Final Dvorak T number due to Dvorak constraint.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 23.4S 178.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 24.8S 177.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
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Quoting schistkicker:


Funny, my browser must be acting up. "1997" doesn't show up in the comments or in the blog post until your chart and my previous comment.
So where/why did you pick 1997?
Do you keep up on the AGWT debate. These are the numbers being used by one side to show no warming while the other side says it is still warming through this period.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2285
OK, here's a few websites for your entertainment:

Link

Link


Link


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Quoting nymore:
I did not just pick these myself, these are the dates being thrown around on the blogs, so I used them to make a point. I am not taking sides here.


Funny, my browser must be acting up. "1997" doesn't show up in the comments or in the blog post until your chart and my previous comment.
So where/why did you pick 1997?
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Quoting nymore:
You put the link out there. I just posted a link with an actual peer review. That directly challenges your link


However, my point was that our two links did not show the same type of data and had very little to do with each other. To make the point you are trying to prove, you would have to provide a chart showing the same temp data for the same area for the same time period. I am actually trying to help you, really.
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Quoting schistkicker:


Why pick 1997 as your starting point? Why not 1999? Why not 1987?
I did not just pick these myself, these are the dates being thrown around on the blogs, so I used them to make a point. I am not taking sides here.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2285
Quoting nymore:
Here is an example of it all depends on who's ox is being gored. People who say the world has warmed in the last 16 years are correct it has. It has warmed less than 0.09C. To those who claim it is not statistically significant they are also correct.



Why pick 1997 as your starting point? Why not 1999? Why not 1987?
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Here is an example of it all depends on who's ox is being gored. People who say the world has warmed in the last 16 years are correct it has. It has warmed less than 0.09C. To those who claim it is not statistically significant they are also correct.

Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2285
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Probably will ILwthr, StL has snow chance Thurs on back side too, think they're at 8th longest snowless stretch. Also, on that 216 hr, they've added Wed to Thurs as snow chance in the 10 day, only Thurs this a.m. Too bad not a day earlier, but will take it.

Got a little rain Sat and Mon, maybe this moisture can help keep this Mississippi open - they're getting ready to blast the granite at Thebes, then Grand Tower. Way back in the Saluki days went to an overlook on the bluffs around GT, very cool!

Think the Illini are for real? Loved Butler beating IU (& NC)
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215. Skyepony (Mod)
The wunderstore has a couple of holiday discount coupons.

$5Winter2012
Save $5 off a subtotal of $30+

$10Winter2012
Save $10 off a subtotal of $50+


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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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